International Journal of Energy and Environmental Engineering

https://doi.org/10.1007/s40095-022-00484-7

ORIGINAL RESEARCH

A compendious approach for renewable energy assessment based

on satellite and ground truth data: Bilate catchment, Rift Valley Basin,
Ethiopia
Melkamu Teshome Ayana1 · Zerihun Makayno Mada1 · Samuel Dagalo Hatiye1 · Abdella Kemal Mohammed1

Received: 31 December 2021 / Accepted: 11 February 2022

© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Islamic Azad University 2022

Abstract
Energy sources generated from different modes other than the conventional types have become more demanding in combating
climate change issues that the world has been facing today. To cater the need for electricity in countries of Africa like Ethiopia
can be initiated by such modern practices. The hydro, wind, and solar power output of Bilate in the Central Rift Valley Basin
was estimated envisaging satellite information and Hybrid Optimization Model for Electrical Renewable (HOMER). Three
off-grid sites located in the central part of the catchment namely Shashego, Weira, and Siraro were considered in this study.
The demographic and hydro-meteorological data of the selected sites were collected from various sources and ERA5 climate
variables have been utilized at their optimum level to find a better and more accurate solution. Power transformation and
variance scaling techniques were applied to correct biases in precipitation and temperature, respectively. Due to rarely avail-
able hydrological gauge stations in the catchment, there has been difficult to analyze the data of the stream flows at the sites
and hence HBV-IHMS model was used during the study to find an amicable solution for the compliance. The performance
of the model was checked before the use and resulted in NSE above 80% in replicating the observed hydrograph. The total
power output of the best feasible hybrid system at Shashego, Weira and Siraro site is calculated as 26240 kW, 51298 kW
and 46245 kW per annum, respectively. Except in Shashego, the configuration of hybrid systems in Weira and Siraro were
technically and economically viable. The system was iteratively reconfigured to check the percent of the load demand of the
Shashego site that could have been fulfilled with minimal LCOE but unpredictably it was found that only 50% of the load
can be provided without any impairment. The LCOE of hydro is comparably very low in all the sites through the energy
output from the scheme was inadequate to accomplish the required demand of the community.

Keywords Bilate catchment · ERA5 satellite products · HOMER · LCOE · Renewable energy

Introduction
The shortage of reliable and sustainable energy impedes
the economic and social development of a society [1]. The
economy and population increase in Africa have profound
implications on the energy sector. From very small to large
businesses, the socio-economic development of society
depends on energy [2]. Reports indicate that the exist-
ing strategy and investment policies in African countries
are not adequate to satisfy the demand of the continent’s
* Melkamu Teshome Ayana
melktesh@gmail.com
1
Water Technology Institute, Arba Minch University,
P.O.Box. 21, Arba Minch, Ethiopia
growing population [3, 4]. Even today, more than 600 mil-
lion people in the continent do not have access to electricity
and 900 million lack accesses to clean energy facilities for
cooking. In sub-Saharan countries alone, more than 50%
of the people are still under energy poverty [5]. In devel-
oping nations, a significant amount of energy demand has
been obtained from firewood and fossil fuel. However, these
sources of energy have been seriously depleted and hence
it is becoming a challenge to satisfy energy demands from
these sources. Moreover, the use of biomass and biomass
products for energy requirements has contributed to further
environmental degradation and pollution. On one hand, the
use of biomass energy incurs forest or biomass degrada-
tion and contributed to extreme hydrological events such
as floods and droughts [6, 7]. Energy consummation from
biomass also contributed to health problems of consumers

13
Vol.:(0123456789)

such as pulmonary diseases [8]. Environmental pollution
can be mitigated by the use of clean, inexhaustible, and sus-
tainable energy sources. Renewable energy sources such as
small hydropower [9], wind power and solar power [10] are
essential not only for their green energy provision but also
they can provide energy for communities located far from
the grid system [11].
Considering the year 2000 as a baseline, there is a sub-
stantial improvement in access to electricity all over the
world and this is also true for many developing countries.
The contribution of renewable energy sources to global
energy has remarkably improved over the last two decades
and has increased approximately two folds from the year
2001 (13.6%) to 2020 (23.6%) and is forecasted to reach 50%
in the year 2040 [12]. According to Dolf et al. [2], the energy
consumption alone in the year 2021 would be 50–80% higher
than in 1990. The world’s energy consumption is approxi-
mately 22 billion kWh per year and increasing from time
to time creating an adverse effect on environmental health
[13, 14]. Even though there is a significant improvement in
electricity access across Ethiopian cities; boosting from 5%
in 2000 to 49% in 2020, in terms of rural electrification, the
progress is still very low as compared to other developing
countries. Only 36% of the rural communities have access
to electricity through modern energy systems and yet the
remaining portions rely on biomass energy. Not only lack
of electricity, but also the consumption at the national level
is the lowest (per capita electricity consumption of 28 kWh/
year) putting the country far below the energy poverty line
of 120 kWh/year [3, 15].
In Ethiopia, the lack of energy on the social and economic
wellbeing of the community is too sensitive as compared to
other neighboring countries. More than 85% of its popula-
tion lives in rural regions and the prerequisite for electricity
is also highly demandable with a consistent increase in pop-
ulation size [16, 17]. Unlike other countries, connecting the
rural regions of Ethiopia to the grid system is often challeng-
ing as the majority of the communities are scattered across a
wide area. This may be the reason for non-electrification of
the entire community in rural Ethiopia due to the high rate of
the cost factor involved for the supply from door to door. In
such a case, the use of other renewable energy sources such
as hydro, wind and solar power play a key role in electrifying
the rural areas at a nominal cost.
The application of remote sensing data in assessing the
potential of energy produced at remotely located regions is
becoming very common [18–20]. Earth monitoring stations
have far-reaching influence to evaluate the availability of
energy across the globe although the accurate installation
of such tools is highly dependable on the economy of the
country. The distribution of hydro-meteorological stations
in developing countries is so scattered and hence poses
an impact on power potential assessment. Therefore, the
13
International Journal of Energy and Environmental Engineering
application of remote sensing (RS) information in the assess-
ment of energy has become a remedy and can accurately rep-
licate the measured values on the ground [21, 22]. Roberto
et al. [23] and Avtar et al. [24] presented the reliability and
accuracy of remote sensing data in predicting energy. Many
research studies related to the applications of climate model
outputs are available [25–27]. Interim ERA5 is one such RS
data that can be employed for energy potential assessment
from different sources [28–30]. However, there were very
limited/no earlier studies which used Interim-ERA5 satellite
products for an energy assessment. HOMER was selected
because of its capability to simulate time series outputs
with highly detailed information over other models such as
RETScreen, Hybrid2, and PV*SOL [31, 32].
Few studies have been instigated to assess the energy
output from different renewable sources and its utilization
in Ethiopia (e.g. [33]. Zelalem [34] evaluated the techno-
economic viability of small hydro using HOMER software
predicting the capability of the system that fully served
the electricity demand of the nearby community. Most of
the earlier research has been focused on the assessment of
energy from a single system using the available hydrological
and meteorological data [35, 36]. None of the earlier studies
assessed the combined effects of bias-free climate variables
and hydrological information in the assessment of power
output of the study area. Assessment of energy using satel-
lite information and modeling tools were widely applied in
different regions [37–39]. However, the integration of multi-
ple energy sources and satellite products to assess the energy
potential in ungauged sites is not widely practiced. The main
objectives of this study includes; (1) assessment of energy
situation and potential from hydro, wind and solar power
using HOMER model (2) evaluation of seasonal variations
of hydro, wind and solar power in ungauged locations in
Bilate catchment and, (3) estimating the levelized cost of
hydro, wind and solar power along the main course of Bilate
catchment. The current study attempts to provide informa-
tion for stakeholders and practitioners in the energy sector
for possible investment and development of energy from
hydro, wind, and solar sources based on the newly developed
climate re-analysis dataset, interim-ERA5 satellite informa-
tion. A system of three energy sources including hydro, wind
and solar was configured together to calculate the technical
and economic viability of the system.
Methods and materials
Study area
Bilate River catchment is located in the central part of
the Ethiopian Rift Valley Lakes Basin between 37.75°
E–38.41° E longitudes and 6.55° N–8.20° N latitudes. It
International Journal of Energy and Environmental Engineering
covers an area of around 5625 ­k m 2 having an elevation
ranging from 1176 to 3328 m above mean sea level. Bilate
River originates from the upper Gurage mountains and
drains south into Lake Abaya contributing about 38% of
the volume of the lake [40]. The population density in
the upper and central part of the catchment exceeds the
average population density of Ethiopia reaching 500 per-
sons/km2. The population density in the western part of
the catchment is sparse and agro-pastoralism is the main
way of living in the study area [41]. The pattern of settle-
ment in the upper and central part of the catchment was
triggered by the ensuing fertile and vast irrigable land in
the area [42]. However, provision of electricity for house-
holds, reliable energy sources for pumps and even charg-
ing batteries were often considered as the main challenges
that affect the day-to-day activities of the society. Figure 1
shows the location of the study area and some of the physi-
cal characteristics of the Bilate catchment.
Fig. 1  Study area a Bilate catchment, selected hydropower potential sites, districts and rural areas in the catchment b Ethiopian major river
basins and c Rift Valley Basin
Methods
Data collection and analysis
Field survey was conducted to collect topographic informa-
tion and to measure streamflow in gauging stations. Physical
inspection of the potential landscape zones was identified.
The river gauging stations were obtained using GPS and
field observation. Head drops and locations of the selected
hydropower stations and their electro-mechanical equipment
types were obtained through field observation. The demo-
graphic data for the selected areas were collected from the
district statistical office while the hydrological and meteoro-
logical data were collected from the Ministry of Water and
Energy (MoWE) and the National Meteorological Agency
(NMA) of Ethiopia, respectively. Other secondary data such
as satellite data from ERA5 and DEM of the study area were
downloaded from different sources. The HBV-IHMS hydro-
logical and HOMER software packages were used to simu-
late the streamflow and power of the selected rural sites.
13
 International Journal of Energy and Environmental Engineering

Quality assessment of hydro‑meteorological data
Available data and information concerning spatial, mete-
orological, hydrological, satellite, and appropriate energy
development projects relevant to the study were collected
from various organizations and online sources. Eight mete-
orological and three streamflow gauging stations’ data with
several classes and lengths have been used in this study.
The meteorological data covering a period from 1987 to
2016 were collected. The streamflow data covering a period
from 1987 to 2016 for Bilate Tena and 1971–2014 for Alaba
Kulito station were gathered. However, the data have several
breaks and missing data ranging from a day to years. The
detail of the available meteorological stations in the study
area is given in Table 1.
Quality assessment of ERA5 satellite data
The daily climate data records are hardly complete and
accompanied with sporadic and prolonged periods of miss-
ing values. Such missing and discontinuities in the histori-
cal meteorological data can be filled using gridded satellite
climate data [43, 44]. The new climate reanalysis dataset,
ERA5, was launched by the European Centre for Medium-
Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) was used to derive the
climatic parameters of the selected energy sites in Bilate
catchment. ERA5 was selected in this study for its various
advantages among which availability of all the meteoro-
logical variables required for this study with relatively high
resolution (31 km × 31 km) are few to mention. The data
was downloaded from https://​ecmwf.​int/​en/​forec​asts/​datas​
ets/​reana​lysis-​datas​ets/​era5/ in NetCDF format. The data
is available from 1978 to date and updated on an hourly
basis. However, the average hourly rainfall, temperature,
wind speed (u and v components), surface solar radiation,
and cloud cover data for the period between 1991 to 2020
was downloaded and used in this study. Satellite data from
21 grid center points (GCPs) covering the Bilate watershed
including precipitation, dry and wet surface solar radiation,
minimum and maximum temperature, wind speed, and dry
and wet cloud cover were downloaded. Each grid data were
denoted as Bxy where B represents the grid point, x, and y
represent the number of rows and columns from the southern
tips of the catchment to the western end, respectively.
Bias correction of ERA5 satellite data
Satellite outputs mostly provide unbiased representations of
observed historical climate data which needs abrupt correc-
tion techniques. The biases primarily arise from systematic
errors and may yield uncertainty in the hydrologic model,
which could result in under or underestimation of model
parameters [45, 46]. Due to this reason, satellite climate data
need to be corrected before these products are used as input
for models.
Numerous bias correction techniques are available to
remove the errors in the satellite products. In this study, a
power transformation method (PT) and Variance scaling
(VARI) methods were used to correct biases in precipitation
and temperature data, respectively [47]. Both methods are
based on matching the mean and coefficient variation of the
satellite outputs against the observed climate data.
Application of HBV‑IHMS model to Bilate catchment
The HBV-IHMS model is a conceptual rainfall-runoff model
for the generation of catchment streamflow. The model sim-
ulates daily runoff using daily rainfall, temperature, geo-
graphical information in terms of forest or field, long-term
average monthly potential evaporation of the catchment. The
detailed description of each routine in HBV-IHMS is well
described in [48].
To obtain the streamflow heads and discharge values at
required points the HBV-IHMS Hydrological model was
used. Moderl senstiveity, caliberation and validation were
conducted procedurely before the model was used to predict
stream flow at required locations. Using the hydro-meteor-
ological data of 1991, the most sensitive model parameters
were identified. The model was calibrated using historical
streamflow data of 1992–2001 and validated using data from
2002 to 2006. Three model performance indicators such as
Relative Volume Error (RVE), Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency

Table 1  Availability of SNo. Station name Longitude (o) Latitude (o) Elevation (m) Availability Class
meteorological data with their
location and classes 1 Alaba Kulito 38.06 7.19 1772 1987–2016 3
2 Bilate Tena 38.12 6.92 1496 1987–2016 4
3 Bodity 37.51 6.57 2043 1987–2016 3
4 Hosana 37.85 7.53 2307 1987–2016 1
5 Wulbareg 38.17 7.77 1992 1987–2016 3
6 Shone 37.50 7.08 1959 1987–2016 4
7 Durame 37.57 7.12 2000 1987–2016 3
8 Bedessa (Wadu) 37.59 6.55 1609 1987–2016 4

13
International Journal of Energy and Environmental Engineering
(NSE), and Coefficient of determination (­ R2) were applied
to evaluate the performance of the HBV model [49].
Energy assessment using Hybrid Optimization
Model for Electrical Renewable (HOMER)
The optimal energy output from the hybrid hydro, wind,
and solar system was calculated using HOMER. HOMER
is a design optimization model that determines the con-
figuration, dispatch, and load management strategy which
minimizes life-cycle costs for a particular site and applica-
tion. In this study, HOMER Pro version 4.11 was used to
optimize the techno-economic viability of hydro, wind, and
solar systems in Bilate catchments. Input data for the model
was prepared integrating satellite rainfall, wind speed, solar
radiation, cloud cover, and mean temperature data of ERA5
and streamflow data of Bilate simulated at the selected sites.
Small hydropower potential assessment
Hydropower is considered one of the easiest, most reliable,
and environmental friendly source of energy [50, 51]. The
power generated from hydraulic turbines is a product of the
net head, the flow rate, and the efficiency of the turbine [52].
Equation (1) was used to compute the power output of the
hydro turbine.
P = 𝜂t × 𝛾w × hnet × Qt (1)
where P is the power output [kW]; ηt is turbine efficiency
[%]; 𝛾w is the specific gravity of water [9.81 kg ­m−3]; hnet is
the net head (m) and Qt is the flow rate ­(m3/s).
A firm discharge ranging from 80% up to 95% of prob-
ability of exceedance (Q80 and Q95) are commonly used to
calculate the power output of small hydropower systems.
Accordingly, simulated stream flows of the selected three
sites at their outlet corresponding to a 90% probability of
exceedance (Q90) were used in this study.
Wind power potential assessment
Wind turbines are designed as per the standard procedure
depending on the height at which they are installed which
is primarily based on the wind speed compared to the avail-
able measured wind data. The turbine hub height captures
the wind speed height of nearly 2 m and can be extrapolated
using the power-law expression (Eq. 2).
( )a
U h
= (2)
Uo ho
where Uo is the wind speed at the original height ho, U is
the wind speed at the wind turbine hub height h, and α is the
surface roughness coefficient. The exact value of the surface
roughness coefficient is not practically accessible or cannot
be determined perfectly. Hence, Weibull probability func-
tion parameter value calculated at the measured height was
used (Eq. 3).
( )
ln Zhub ∕Zo
Uhub = UAnem × (3)
ln (ZAnem ∕Zo )
where Uhub is wind speed estimated at the hub height (m/s),
UAnem is the wind speed at anemometer height (m/s), ZAnem
is the anemometer height (m), Zhub is the hub height of the
wind turbine (m) and Zo is the surface roughness length fac-
tor (m). During this study, the length factor of the surface
roughness is considered as 0.2 since the area is blanketed
with lofty trees and shrubs.
The surface roughness length factor describes the rough-
ness of the surrounding terrain and its value is considered as
0.2 because the area is covered with shrubs. Finally, the power
output was calculated using the wind turbine power curve.
The maximum power that can be achieved through a wind
turbine is nearly 60% and generator efficiency is about 80%.
The maximum theoretical wind energy can be calculated using
(Eq. 4). A detailed description of this equation is given else-
where [8, 53].
1 2 1
W= mv = 𝜌Vv2 = 0.625Vv2 = 0.193Av2 (4)
2 2
where ρ is air density (~ 1.25 kg/m3), V is the volume V = A
× v, v is wind speed and, A is rotor surface area.
Solar power potential assessment
The power output of PV cell was calculated using (Eq. 5).
GT [ ( )]
PPV = Y PV fPV ×
GT,STC
× 1 + 𝛼P TC − TC,STC (5)
where, ­Ypv is the rated capacity of the PV array, which is
the power output under standard test condition (kW), fpv
is PV rating factor (%), GT is the incident solar radiation
on the PV array in the current time step (kW/m2), GT, STC
is the incident radiation at standard test conditions (1 kW/
m2), αp is the temperature coefficient of power, TC is the PV
cell temperature in the current time step (°C) and TC, STC is
the cell temperature under standard test conditions equal to
25 °C. Equation (5) is well described in Kashif et al. [54]
and Jordehi [55].
13

Estimation of load demand of the selected areas
Population forecasting
Population size is an important factor commonly used to
calculate the future power demand of a rural society. The
load demand of the area was determined by calculating the
demand based on population projection in the future. Firstly,
the future population size of the selected rural potential site
was estimated using the geometrical increase method (Eq. 6)
as suggested by the Central Statistical Agency (CSA) of
Ethiopia [42]. The population data of each district were col-
lected from the Statistical Bureau of Halaba Special district.
Pn = Po (1 + r∕100 )n
(6)
Where, Po is present population size; Pn is the population at
nth year; r is geometric growth rate (%) and, n is the number
of years.
Power demand assessment
The current power demand was estimated based on the basic
requirements of energy and population size and the future
period power demand was forecasted using the most feasible
and reliable approach to calculate the demand energy of the
study areas. The number of light bulbs and commonly used
electronic devices in the study area were identified and the
loads per household were calculated. Later on, consider-
ing 20 years of project life and four people per household,
the future load demand of the selected sites was estimated.
Finally, the time of electronic devices utilization and their
daily energy consumption was considered. The majority of
the population of the area are farmers and intend to use elec-
tronic devices consuming huge energy such as baking plates
from 09:00 am to 11:00 am. In Ethiopia, radio and television
(Tv) are commonly used from 07:00 am–09:00 am, 11:00
am–02:00 pm and 06:00 pm–11:00 pm during the morn-
ing, mid-day and night times, respectively. The same time
was also adopted for the study area. Three light bulbs, one
radio, one television, and one medium refrigerator with 150
L capacity, one baking plate, and energy for different cook-
ing devices were considered to calculate the energy demand
of each household.
Economic analysis of hybrid energy system
and selection of feasible configuration
HOMER uses a discount rate to transform a single-time cost
into equivalent annual costs. The annual interest rate is cal-
culated using (Eq. 7).
13
International Journal of Energy and Environmental Engineering
�
i −f
i= (7)
1+f
where, i′ is the nominal interest rate (%); i is the annual real
interest rate (%) and f is a constant recovery factor.
The total NPC at n year is calculated by dividing total
annual cost by capital recovery factor (CRF) and expressed
as in (Eq. 8).
i(i + 1)n
CRF = (8)
(i + 1)n − 1
where n is the number of years and i is the annual real inter-
est rate.
The levelized cost of energy is therefore the average cost
per kWh of useful electrical energy produced by the system.
Although the levelized cost of energy is often a convenient
metric with which to compare the costs of different systems,
HOMER uses the total NPC instead of as its primary eco-
nomic figure of merit.
The levelized cost of energy is calculated as (Eq. 9):
Cann,tot
COE = (9)
Eprim + Edef + Egrid,sale
where, ­Cann,tot is the total annualized cost; E
­ prim and E ­ def are
the total amounts of primary and deferrable load, respec-
tively, that the system serves per year; and E ­ grid;sales is the
amount of energy sold to the grid per year. The detailed
description of economic analysis methods used in this study
are widely explained in different scholarly articles [56–58].
Results and discussions
Bias corrected ERA5 satellite data
Removing the biases in the satellite observation to obtain
satellite data capable of replicating the historical meteoro-
logical data is a matter of concern. For this purpose, a mete-
orological gauge station with full parameter (class-I) and
data length in the study area is highly demanding. Except
Hossana station located at the central upstream part of the
catchment, all the remaining meteorological stations are
either of the category class 3 or 4. The more increase in the
interval, the fewer climate variables are recorded and vice-
versa. There are no recorded information on wind speed,
sunshine hour, cloud cover, and clearness index which are
important input data into HOMER in class 3 and 4 stations.
Therefore, the biases in these stations were removed by using
the same climate variables recorded at the Hossana station.
Based on this principle, bias correction was conducted for all
the identified sites and the results of bias-corrected climate
variables for selected sites in Bilate catchments (Fig. 2).
International Journal of Energy and Environmental Engineering
Fig. 2  Comparison of observed against bias-corrected satellite mean temperature (°C) and precipitation (mm/month), a over Bilate Catchment b
at Shashego site c at Weira site d at Siraro site
In all the cases, the overall shape agreement obtained was
reasonably acceptable and considered to be very good in
quality indicating the dependability of the data for further
use [59, 60].
Spatio‑temporal distribution
of hydro‑meteorological data
Spatial distribution of climate in the catchment
The major part of the Bilate watershed is highly character-
ized by its flat land and erratic rainfall. Most of the non-
electrified parts of the districts in Bilate catchment (local
subdivisions in Ethiopia) receive a rainfall ranging from 908
to 1627 mm per annum (Fig. 3a). The mean annual tempera-
ture in the catchment varies between 18.13 °C in the north-
ern area to 23.3 °C in the Southern part of the catchment.
The central part of the catchment is characterized by hot
temperature with an average temperature varying between
20.63 and 21.44 °C (Fig. 3b). Due to solar radiation (Fig. 3c)
in catchment varying from 4.19 W/m2 and 5.69 W/m2 with
hot temperature and long sunshine hours, the area is more
favorable for solar power production. The mean annual wind
speed over Bilate catchment does not significantly vary and
it is as low as 1.23 m/s with the highest record of 2.28 m/s.
In the central part of the catchment three potential sites
were selected which have a wind speed ranging from 2.02 to
2.28 m/s (Fig. 3d). The other important input parameter into
HOMER is cloud cover. It is another indicator for the good
yield of solar photovoltaic energy where the value ranges
from 0.09 to 0.29 (Fig. 3e).
Temporal distribution of climate in the catchment
The areal rainfall of the study area was calculated using the-
isen polygon method. The average rainfall of the catchment
is 1532 mm per annum with a minimum and maximum rain-
fall of 22.12 mm (December) and 154.32 mm (August) per
month, respectively. The mean annual rainfall of 1202 mm,
13

Fig. 3  Spatial distribution of bias-corrected ERA5 satellite data in Bilate catchment a rainfall (mm/year), b mean temperature (°C), c solar radia-
tion (W/m2), d wind speed (m/s) and, e cloud cover (fraction)
1137.05 mm, and 1130.05 mm was estimated at Shashego,
Weira, and Siraro catchments, respectively. The wettest and
driest season in all the sub-catchments was observed as sum-
mer and winter season, respectively (Fig. 4).
Results of model sentstivity, calibration
and validation
Sensitive analysis
The sensitivity analysis was undertaken by changing
the values of the parameters in the allowable range. The
value of each parameter was changed while values of
other parameters are fixed. Figure 5 shows that the NSE
13
International Journal of Energy and Environmental Engineering
and RVE values for Bilate at Halaba catchment remained
nearly constant for a wide range of Perc, Alfa, K4, and
Cflux values indicating that, these parameters do not con-
trol the simulated hydrograph pattern. However, changes
in the values FC, Beta, LP, and Khq resulted in noticeable
changes in NSE indicating that these parameters should
be used to match the pattern of the observed and simu-
lated hydrograph. Changes in the values of FC, Beta, and
LP also resulted in significant changes in RVE indicating
the simulated streamflow volume is controlled by these
three parameters. The parameter FC (field capacity) cor-
responded to the maximum soil moisture storage, which
affected the runoff volume. A higher value of FC tends to
generate higher base flow but low peak flow. Parameters
International Journal of Energy and Environmental Engineering

Fig. 4  Temporal variations of bias-corrected ERA5 satellite data in Bilate catchment a Rainfall (mm/year) and mean monthly temperature (°C);
b solar radiation (W/m2) and cloud cover (fraction) and, c wind speed (m/s)

Fig. 5  Sensitivity of the HBV

response to its parameters in 1.0 200
terms of the NSE (left) and
0.8 150
RVE (right) objective functions
RVE (%)

100
NSE (-)

0.6
50
0.4
0
0.2 -100% -50% 0% 50% 100%
-50
0.0
-100% -50% 0% 50% 100% -100

Alfa Beta Cflux FC

Alfa Beta Cflux FC
K4 Khq LP Perc K4 Khq LP Perc

K hq and Alfa related to peak flows, and a higher value
of these parameters resulted in higher peaks and more
dynamic response in the hydrograph. The parameters
related to base flow and recession parameters are Perc,
K4 and Cflux.
Calibration and validation
A manual model calibration by changing the value of one
parameter at a time within the allowable range was applied
to obtain the calibrated model parameters. Figure 6 shows

13
 International Journal of Energy and Environmental Engineering

Fig. 6  Observed and simulated RF Q obs Q sim

hydrograph for and Bilate catch- 160 0
ments

Streamflow (m3/s)

Rainfall (mm)
120 50

80 100

40 150

0 200
1/1/1991 1/1/1993 1/1/1995 1/1/1997 1/1/1999 1/1/2001 1/1/2003 1/1/2005

Table 2  Calibrated values of Model performance Parameters Remarks

model parameters and values of
the objective Calibration Validation Alfa Beta Cflux FC K4 Khq LP Perc
NSE RVE NSE RVE

0.79 5.98 0.82 − 0.25 0.19 1.76 0.031 1295 0.001 0.043 0.61 0.09 Very good

the simulated and observed daily hydrographs of Bilate
Halaba catchments. For the calibration period, the reces-
sion limb and base flow of the hydrograph are well captured
by the model.
Table 2 presents the calibrated model parameters and the
values of the objective functions. In the calibration period,
the NSE exceeded 0.75 for the catchment indicating the very
good performance of the model in capturing the observed
hydrograph pattern. Regarding the objective function (espe-
cially NSE), the model performance improved in the valida-
tion period at Halaba of Bilate.
Simulation of streamflow at selected potential hydropower
sites and head assessment in Bilate catchment
characteristics of the catchments were also calculated
and fed into the model. Accordingly, the mean monthly
discharges calculated at Shashego, Weira and Siraro sites
were 5.12 ­m3/s, 12.18 ­m3/s and 19.23 ­m3/s, respectively.
The flow duration curve of the identified sites was devel-
oped by ordering the mean monthly flow of each site in
descending order and calculating the percentage of exceed-
ance from the rank assigned to each value in the order. Q90
which is the streamflow of the sites available for ninety
percent of the time in the year was considered to calculate
the hydropower potential of the identified sites. Accord-
ingly, Q 90 of 1.26 ­m 3/s, 5.11 ­m 3/s, and 8.89 ­m 3/s were
obtained at Shashego, Weira, and Siraro sites, respectively.

The major portion of the central part of Bilate catchment is
highly characterized by the absence of electricity especially;
parts of Shashego, Weira and Siraro district are classified as
the major electric scarce regions. Based on the data avail-
ability, proximity from the community, and availability of
potential sites for hydro, wind, and solar power, three poten-
tial sites namely Weira, Siraro, and Shashego were selected.
Since streamflow data is not available in all three sites, the
HBV model was used and streamflow was generated for
all sites. The head available in the catchment was obtained
by measuring the head drops at the sites through physical
observation and the head obtained was 24, 26, and 25 m for
Shashego, Weira and Siraro sites, respectively.
The mean monthly streamflow of the potential sites
identified was generated using the meteorological data
of 1991–2020 and the HBV-IHMS model. The physical
Demand and energy situation in selected districts summary
of the energy status in selected sites and forcasted
population
In the selected three districts, data sources indicated that
only 26.99%, 38.76%, and 30.04% of the community of
Shashego, Weira, and Siraro district have access to elec-
tricity, respectively. The cumulative results of the three
districts show that every seven people out of ten people
in the study area lack electricity. However, the proximity
to the transmission line, road and other factors indicated
by the district administrations implied that about 36.45%,
27.28%, and 40.65% of communities have an opportunity
to avail electricity in Shashego, Weira, and Siraro district
in near future, respectively. Therefore, the energy fore-
casting was conducted considering only the less likely

13
International Journal of Energy and Environmental Engineering

Table 3  Forecasted population size in the selected Districts and status of their energy
S.no. Potential sites District name Population Percent of population size and its energy status Forecasted population size
size in 2020 in the year 2020 and number of households
in 2035
Connected to Nearby grid in Not con- Population Number of
grid in nected to grid size in 2035 householders

1 Shashego Shashego 126,446 26.99 36.45 36.56 71,815 14,363

2 Weira Weira 121,412 38.76 27.28 33.96 58,140 11,628
3 Siraro Siraro 106,806 30.04 40.65 29.31 48,785 9757
Total 354,664 31.93 34.79 33.28 178,740 35,748

Table 4  Hourly average power load of the Shashego, Weira, and Siraro villages
Time (h) Shashego Weira Siraro
Primary load Deferrable Total load Primary load Deferrable Total load Primary load Deferrable Total load
(Wh) (Wh) (Wh) (Wh) (Wh) (Wh) (Wh) (Wh) (Wh)

01:00–02:00 867,400 867,400 702,229 702,229 589,237 589,237

02:00–03:00 885,138 885,138 716,590 716,590 601,287 601,287
03:00–04:00 885,138 885,138 716,590 716,590 601,287 601,287
04:00–05:00 885,138 885,138 716,590 716,590 601,287 601,287
05:00–06:00 867,400 198,000 1,065,400 702,229 198,000 900,229 589,237 198,000 787,237
06:00–07:00 1,640,028 198,000 1,838,028 1,327,734 198,000 1,525,734 1,114,096 198,000 1,312,096
07:00–08:00 16,806,882 198,000 17,004,882 13,606,519 198,000 13,804,519 11,417,166 198,000 11,615,166
08:00–09:00 1,007,205 198,000 1,205,205 815,414 198,000 1,013,414 684,210 198,000 882,210
09:00–10:00 881,314 198,000 1,079,314 713,494 198,000 911,494 598,690 198,000 796,690
10:00–11:00 2,317,614 198,000 2,515,614 1,876,294 198,000 2,074,294 1,574,390 198,000 1,772,390
11:00–12:00 15,244,314 15,244,314 12,341,494 12,341,494 10,355,690 10,355,690
12:00–13:00 866,448 866,448 701,459 701,459 588,591 588,591
13:00:14:00 866,448 866,448 701,459 701,459 588,591 588,591
14:00–15:00 866,448 866,448 701,459 701,459 588,591 588,591
15:00–16:00 866,448 866,448 701,459 701,459 588,591 588,591
16:00–17:00 863,575 198,000 1,061,575 699,134 198,000 897,134 586,640 198,000 784,640
17:00–18:00 863,575 198,000 1,061,575 699,134 198,000 897,134 586,640 198,000 784,640
18:00–19:00 15,378,830 198,000 15,576,830 12,450,396 198,000 12,648,396 10,447,069 198,000 10,645,069
19:00:20:00 3,226,411 3,226,411 2,612,038 2,612,038 2,191,749 2,191,749
20:00–21:00 3,084,576 3,084,576 2,497,212 2,497,212 2,095,399 2,095,399
21:00–22:00 3,084,576 3,084,576 2,497,212 2,497,212 2,095,399 2,095,399
22:00–23:00 1,643,422 1,643,422 1,330,482 1,330,482 1,116,401 1,116,401
23:00:00:00 867,346 867,346 702,186 702,186 589,201 589,201
00:00–1:00 18,821,150 18,821,150 15,237,229 15,237,229 12,785,487 12,785,487

connected parts of the community in the next 15 years.
Accordingly, 36.56%, 33.96%, and 29.31% of Shashego,
Weira, and Siraro district were taken into account, respec-
tively. The results obtained are a bit lower than the aver-
age of electricity access in rural sites of Ethiopia [3, 15].
The status of the electricity connection and the forecasted
population size of each district are illustrated in Table 3.
The equivalent energy of each site, which is the sum of
deferrable and primary electricity demands of each house-
hold was calculated assuming an appropriate electrical
appliance using time and its consumptions. The hourly
average power loads of villages are described in Table 4.

13

Fig. 7  Diurnal cycle of power output from the hybrid system at Shashego site a hydropower output b wind turbine output c PV power output and
d generator power output
Diurnal cycle of the hybrid power system estimated
using HOMER
Figure 7a represents the diurnal disparity of the power
output from all the schemes considered in the Shashego
site. The daily power output of the wind turbine at the
Shashego site was low ranked demonstrating a lack of
resilient wind energy to rotate the wind blade for a long
period throughout the year (Fig. 7b). Approximately 70%
of the electrical load demand of the Shashego district com-
munity was supplied from PV array though coverage dur-
ing the peak time (18:00–24:00) and night (1:00–7:00)
time was highly challenged. The period from May to the
end of September is characterized by heavy rainfall in the
entire catchment and hence the power output from the
PV array was reduced drastically from day 120 to 270
(Fig. 7c). In spite of this, the power output from the hybrid
hydro could not supply the demanding energy and hence
the system was compelled to utilize maximum energy from
generators (Fig. 7d).
The economic evaluations of the most feasible schemes in
developing countries are merely based on theoretical aspects
but as far as practicability is concerned LCOE obtained for
this configuration is estimated as $0.588 M/kWh which was
highly overestimated as compared to LCOE < $0.3 M/kWh
[61, 62]. Therefore, the configuration was overruled and
the optimization was iteratively continued with the target
13
International Journal of Energy and Environmental Engineering
of reducing the hybrid systems with large LCOE and pro-
portionally reducing the load demand of the site by 25%.
Accordingly, 50% of the load demand of the site was suf-
ficiently provided with minor interruption.
To achieve a perfect solution to the crisis, a combination
of hydro and generator output become the best feasible solu-
tion the generator was expected to serve for the majority of
the time (64.5%). This configuration showed that the battery
stays in the full state with less power output from the gen-
erator which helps to fulfill the peak load during 6:00–8:00,
11:00–12:00, and 17:00 to 18:00. The results obtained from
HOMER based on 50% load are depicted in Fig. 8.
In the Weira site, the best feasible configuration is
hydro integrated with the wind power source and sup-
ported by the battery to compensate for daily energy fluc-
tuations. During the first 120 dates of the year beginning
from January 1­ st to April 3­ 1st, the power output from hydro
is less (Fig. 9a) and the load demand during this period
can be supplicated combining the two systems. The wind
turbine power output from day 90 up to 270 is very low
mainly during morning and evening time from 0:00–9:00
and 15:00–24:00 (Fig. 9b). Hydropower output during this
period was immensely leading the battery to fully charge
which can be used during power scarce periods. An abso-
lute increase in hydropower output was observed from
May 1st to September 31st and later on starts declining in
October. This helps the battery to store immense energy
International Journal of Energy and Environmental Engineering

Fig. 8  HOMER outputs at Shashego site considering 50% of the load demand; a hydropower output b generator power output and c battery state
of charge

Fig. 9  HOMER outputs at Weira site; a hydropower output b wind turbine power output and c battery state of charge

during this period and the battery was full throughout the
entire month (Fig. 9c). Under the current system, the hydro
and wind power serves 65.5% and 34.5% in satisfying the
load demand of the site, respectively.
With a maximum number of tributaries contributing to
the Siraro site, the hydropower output was comparatively
very high and constant over nine months. Compared to
the upper two sites, the load demand of the site is also less
resulting in an absolute positive power balance between

13
 International Journal of Energy and Environmental Engineering

Fig. 10  HOMER outputs at Siraro site; a hydropower output b wind turbine power output and c battery state of charge

Fig. 11  Hourly power balance 20000

Bonosha Power output Weira Power output Siraro Power output
of the hybrid system in the 18000 Bonosha Load Weira Load Siraro Load
selected study area
16000
14000
Power [kW]

12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0

Time [Hrs]

the sum of power outputs and the load demand of the com-
munity. Almost throughout the entire year, reliable energy
can be harnessed from hydro sources. Over 90% of the load
demand of the community was served by hydro and the
remaining 10% used generators. However, the power fluc-
tuation that may occur during peak time can be adequately
supplicated using energy stored in the battery during low
load demand. Under such a condition, the generator cannot
be used for over nine months, day 90–365 except to fill the
gap during peak load times (Fig. 10b). With the current inte-
grated system, the failure to serve the load is only 1.7%. The
results of optimized and best feasible configuration simu-
lated using HOMER is presented in Fig. 10.
Comparing and contrasting all the aspects combined,
throughout the year, 0.08%, 2.88%, and 1.7% of the electric-
ity demand of Shashego, Weira, and Siraro district were at
a deficiency, respectively. Early morning time from 6:00 to
8:00, day time from 10:00 to 12:00, and evening time from
17:00 to 19:00 were peak load time and the diurnal cycle
indicates failure of the system to serve these energy require-
ments. Nonetheless, the excess energy produced during out
of the periods mentioned above can be optimally utilized
by saving the energy into the battery. Figure 11 shows the
power balance between power outputs and load demand of
the selected sites.

13
International Journal of Energy and Environmental Engineering
Temporal and seasonal variation of the hybrid
power system
Temporal variation of power output from the hybrid system
The mean annual power outputs from the hybrid hydro, wind
and solar PV array at the Shashego site calculated using
HOMER were 1065 kW, 0.07 kW, and 3153 kW, respec-
tively. The sum of power produced from the system includ-
ing generator output is 56363 kW/year with the maximum
and minimum production of 6084 kW and 3864 kW in
October and June months, respectively. Except in June, the
change in power output and load demand in each month
resulted in a positive value indicating the reliability of the
hybrid scheme to supplicate the demanding constant energy
of 3974 kW/month. Taking monthly demand into consid-
eration, the PV output alone is capable of satisfying the
demand in all the months of the year excluding June. None
of the remaining schemes considered can independently
satisfy even the monthly load demand of the Shashego dis-
trict unless any one of the systems is integrated. Of the total
annual power produced, solar PV and hydro cover 67% and
22% of the annual energy produced with insignificant out-
put from a wind turbine. The sustainability of the system
was maintained via power production using a generator and
energy stored in the battery during excess power produc-
tion. The levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of the selected
configuration was found to be $0.59/kWh with a very high
net present cost of $273 million as compared to other sites.
Earlier studies available online also indicate that LCOE of
solar PV is very high may be due to the cost of the battery
system used to store excess power [62–64].
The LCOE of the PV array was extremely high as com-
pared to the LCOE of the standalone hydro and wind sys-
tem exaggerating the overall cost of power generation of the
hybrid system in this site. The LCOE of hydro is comparably
very low though the power output from the system was not
sufficient to supplicate even 50% of the load demand of the
community of the site. Due to these reasons, the system was
iteratively reconfigured to check how much percent of the
load demand of the area could be fulfilled with very low
LCOE. It was found that 50% of the load demand of the
community can be provided from a system of hydro and
generator that was supported using the battery to balance
the energy fluctuation during peak load through storing the
excess energy during low demand.
Accordingly, an Auto size generator and medium size
hydro turbine were aligned together with a mean power out-
put of 15739 kW and 781 kW in a year. The minimum and
maximum energy produced from the system was 1995 kWh
in February and 2337 kW in August, respectively. More
than 80% of the load was served using a generator while the
remaining load was served using a hydro system. The daily
power fluctuation was balanced using a generic 1 kWh Li-
Ion battery and over a year about 4639234 kWh of energy
was stored and later above 90% of it is to be used to compen-
sate for daily deficiency observed. With the current configu-
ration, the COE of the system significantly decreased from
$0.59 to $0.19 per kWh. An absolute positive balance was
observed over the year making the system more acceptable.
The deficient energy was 0.08% in a year causing a capacity
shortage of 27089 kW in a year. But the renewability frac-
tion remained as low as 16%.
In the Weira site, the best configuration was modeled as
hydro integrated with wind power system while hydro com-
bined with the generator was selected for Siraro site. Over
65% and 90% of the load demands of Weira and Siraro sites
were served using hydro turbines improving the reliability
and sustainability of the configurations. The mean total
power output of the Weira site was 2808 kW with wind and
hydro turbine output of 1480 kW and 2794 kW, respectively.
From January to March is a low flow period in the entire
catchment resulting in low power production from hydro and
in turn, the wind power was used to explore the demanding
load of this period but still, a minor deficiency of 259 kW
and 245 kW was observed in January and March. The mini-
mum and maximum power output of the configuration was
2972 kW in January and 5816 kW in October, respectively.
The capacity factor (CF) which is the ratio of maximum
power output to the maximum possible output from the sys-
tem, of the hydro system was found to be 95% resulting in
high hydro penetration approximated to 88.8%. Whereas,
the CF of the wind turbine was calculated as 31.1% with
wind penetration estimated at 46.8%. Both hydro and wind
operate throughout the year without any failure indicating
the sustainability of the system.
In Siraro district, over 90% of the load demand of the site
was supplicated from the hydro scheme while the remaining
load was served using a generator. This energy site has large
tributaries with a mean annual power output of 3854 kW.
From May to October, a constant and reliable mean monthly
power output of 1774 kW was obtained from the hybrid
system. In January and February, the system was a bit chal-
lenged to supplicate the load demands of the district com-
munity. The results obtained agree with the findings of other
scholars [65]. The month of January and February revealed
a deficiency of 87 kW and 35 kw to suffice the average load
demand of 2723 kw of the site, respectively. These months
are the driest of all with minimal yields from hydropower
scheme. For the rest of the months, the power output from
the scheme significantly surpassed the load demand of each
district though the attempt to store this energy for further use
13
 International Journal of Energy and Environmental Engineering

was not successful from an economic point of view. The CF

16,885
26,240
47,684

17,764
33,534
51,298
38,774
12,523
41,744

46,245
32,678
13,567
9355

2398

4501
Total
of hydro was 77.8% while it is 1.13% for generators resulting
in over 132% penetration for the hydro system. The summary
of mean monthly power output from the stand-alone and
Mean

780
1407
2187
3974
200
1480
2794
4275
3231
1044
3479
375
3854
2723
1131
hybrid, hydro, wind, and solar PV is depicted in Table 5.

Seasonal variation of energy output from the hybrid system

266
1750
2017
3974
30
2416
1186
3602
3231
371
2846
363
3209
2723
486
Dec

The assessment of potential power output in the selected

570
1474
2045
3974
58
2472
2015
4487
3231
1256
4012
242
4253
2723
1530
sites using HOMER software has shown very high vari-
Nov

ance. In the Shashego district, the capacity of power out-

put from solar PV array to supplicate the seasonal demand
1089
1237
2325
3974
338
1661
4155
5816
3231
2585
4256
242
4497
2723
1774
Oct

was immense with an exception winter season. The reli-

ability of the hydropower scheme in the Siraro district as
compared to the upper located Shashego and Weira sites
1089
1237
2326
3974
339
443
4982
5425
3231
2193
4256
242
4497
2723
1774
Sep

was highly promising. A stand-alone system of solar PV

array adequately supplicated the power demand during the
1089
1248
2337
3974
350
938
4787
5725
3231
2494
4256
242
4498
2723
1775
Aug

spring to autumn seasons. During the summer and spring

seasons, the power output from hydro reliably beseeched the
power demand of Weira and Siraro districts. The summer
1089
1226
2315
3974
328
1144
4097
5242
3231
2010
4256
241
4497
2723
1773
Jul

and spring are high rainfall seasons besides large tributar-

ies contributing to the catchments of the sites as compared
1089
1237
2326
3974
339
1025
3371
4396
3231
1165
4256
242
4497
2723
1774

to the Shashego site which is located at the most upstream

Jun

[40, 41]. In most cases, the load demand of all the sites
remained above the standalone power outputs. The seasonal
1089
1237
2326
3974
339
728
3117
3844
3231
613
4256
242
4497
2723
1774
May

variation of the power output of the study area calculated

Table 5  Temporal variation of mean monthly power output from hybrid hydro, wind, and solar output

using HOMER is depicted in Fig. 12.

824
1356
2180
3974
193
1217
2329
3545
3231
314
3304
279
3583
2723
860
Apr

Economic evaluation and selection of viable hybrid

hydro, wind and solar systems
− 245
533
1494
2027
3974
40
1531
1456
2987
3231

2166
725
2891
2723
168
Mar

Economics is a key parameter in the process of HOMER

simulation. In the optimization process, the model was run
395
1599
1995
3974
8
2085
1173
3258
3231
27
1963
725
2688
2723
− 35
Feb

multiple times until the lowest possible net present cost

(NPC) was obtained. More than 3000 configurations with
− 259
233
1790
2022
3974
35
2105
867
2972
3231

1918
718
2637
2723
− 87

the lowest total NPC and levelized cost of energy (COE)

Jan

have been presented in the model. The performance on the

investment and the decision of whether or not to invest in the
Balance for 50% of load (kW)

projects in each configuration were evaluated using return

on investment (ROI) and internal rate of return (IRR). The
average cost of producing 1kwh of energy, levelized cost of
Total Demand (kW)

energy (LCOE) was also presented. In the Shashego site, a

Generator (kW)

Generator (kW)
Demand (kW)

Demand (kW)

system of hydropower supported by a generator was ranked

Balance(kW)

Balance(kW)
Hydro (kW)

Hydro (kW)

Hydro (kW)
Wind (kW)
Total (kW)

Total (kW)

Total (kW)

first with NPC of 38.5 M and discounted payback period

Months

of 1.93 years. All the top configurations selected resulted

with mean LCOE approximated to $0.189 M and ROI above
80% indicating investment of any of the projects configured
Shashego Energy Site

difficulty with unreasonable payback period. The best con-

Siraro Energy Site
Weira Energy Site

figuration has a levelized cost with COE ranging from 0.189

$/kWh which was found to be more expensive as compared
Site

13
International Journal of Energy and Environmental Engineering
Fig. 12  Seasonal variation of
energy output from the hybrid
hydro and wind at Shashego,
Weira and Siraro energy sites.
Energy (kWh)
The load curve in Shashego
site indicates only 50% of the
total load of Shashego area
community
to the Ethiopian Electricity Corporation (EEC) expense of
0.156 $/kWh [66, 67].
In contrary to Shashego, the main servant of the elec-
tricity load in Weira and Siraro district is hydropower
making the renewable fraction above 95% in all the con-
figurations. The best electricity configuration at Weira and
Siraro site constitutes 65.5% and 90.3% coverage from the
hydro system, respectively. The NPC of the best configu-
ration is $89.1 M and $34.2 M at Weira and Siraro sites,
respectively, indicating decreasing investment cost in any of
the sites where the load coverage is mainly from the hydro
scheme. This may have significantly dropped the LCOE
from $0.189 M at Weira to $0.081 M at the Siraro site with
simple payback periods of 9.23 and 7.13 years, respectively.
The LCOE for the Weira site is far above the threshold
expense that EEC incurs amounting to $0.14 M whereas;
a positive change in LCOE of $0.059 M was obtained per
each kWh from the Siraro scheme. In all the cases, the initial
investment cost of a comprising PV system is much more
expensive as compared to hydropower. Table 6 depicts the
summary of the economic analysis of the best hybrid system
configurations in the three sites.
Conclusions
Selection of the best feasible renewable energy source for
possible investment is a complex decision process involv-
ing factors such as social, economic, environmental, and
other variables. In many developing African countries
including Ethiopia, the hydro-climatic gauge station net-
works are highly scattered. The applications of advances
in satellite and modeling science are improving the devel-
opment of reliable and efficient renewable energy sources
enhancing the social and economic wellbeing of poor
societies. The work presented in this study addressed the
capability of interim ERA5 satellite information and the
5000
Wind turbine Hydro Generator Load
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
Summer Spring Winter Autumn Summer Spring Winter Autumn Summer Spring Winter Autumn
Bonosha Site Weira Site Siraro Site
HOMER tool in quantifying the techno-economic viabil-
ity of wind, solar, and hydro-systems in off-grid sites of
Bilate catchment. The gaps in the observed hydro-mete-
orological information in the region were successfully
filled using the interim ERA5 satellite information and
HBV-IHMS hydrological modeling tool was employed to
compute the flow at a point of interest. The hybrid energy
approach has been proposed on top of the presently avail-
able single scheme across the regions in Ethiopia. The
total power output of the best feasible hybrid system at
Shashego, Weira and Siraro site is calculated as 26240 kW,
51298 kW and 46245 kW per annum, respectively. The
power produced in all the site is sufficient to serve the
power demand of all the districts with an exception of the
Shashego site. Over 67% of the power demand at Shashego
district was found to be served from Solar pv system which
may have increased the levelized cost of energy (LCOE)
of the selected configuration to $0.59/kW. The system was
iteratively reconfigured to check the percent of the load
demand of the Shashego site that could have been ful-
filled with minimal LCOE and found that only 50% of the
load can be provided without any impairment reducing the
LCOE of the scheme to $0.16 per kWh.
The results of the study depicted the availability of a
wide range of modern energy sources that can be optimally
used to tackle energy deficits in the study area. However,
the economic analysis using HOMER supported that the
scheme at the most upstream part of the catchment has a
relative disadvantage in producing power from wind and
solar systems. The sub-catchments with a significant num-
ber of tributaries have the potential to produce more power
from the hydro system at very low LCOE, provided suf-
ficient head is available at the site. The results of this study
have been drawn based on a satellite information obtained
from ERA5 database and need to be justified using multi-
ple satellite information from other sources.
13
 International Journal of Energy and Environmental Engineering

Availability of data and materials The datasets used in the current study
are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

Simple pay- Discounted

back (year) payback
(year)
Declarations

1.93

9.36

7.26
Conflict of interests On behalf of all authors, the corresponding author
states that there is no conflict of interest.

9.227
1.79

7.13
IRR (%)

References
81.1

8.4

14
1. Česonienė, L., Dapkienė, M., Punys, P.: Assessment of the impact
of small hydropower plants on the ecological status indicators of
ROI (%)

water bodies: a case study in Lithuania. Water 13, 433 (2021).

11.2

15.2
105

https://​doi.​org/​10.​3390/​w1304​0433
2. Gielen, D., Boshell, F., Saygin, D., Bazilian, M.D., Wagner, N.,
Gorini, R.: The role of renewable energy in the global energy
worth ($M/

transformation. Energ. Strat. Rev. 24, 38–50 (2019). https://​doi.​

Annual

org/​10.​1016/j.​esr.​2019.​01.​006
year)

1.87

3.25

1.19

3. SDG7. Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and

modern energy. Sustainable Energy Development Goals (2021).
A report by United Nations. https://​sdgs.​un.​org/​goals/​goal7.
Accessed 25 Apr 2021
Present
worth

26.36

4.54

16.74
($M)

4. IEA.: Africa Energy Outlook 2019. International Energy Agency,

Special Report. www.i​ ea.o​ rg/a​ frica​ 2019 (2019). Accessed 20 Nov
2021
O and M ($M)

5. Garba, I., Bellingham, R.: Energy poverty: estimating the impact

of solid cooking fuels on GDP per capita in developing countries-
Case of sub-Saharan Africa. Energy (2021). https://​doi.​org/​10.​
O & M is operation and maintenance cost, ROI is return on investment and IRR is internal rate of return
0.925

1016/j.​energy.​2021.​119770
2.21
Table 6  Summary of the economic analysis of the best hybrid system configuration based on LCOE

1.1

6. Anika.: Deforestation and climate change. A report by World Cli-

mate Council. https://​www.​clima​tecou​ncil.​org.​au/​defor​estat​ion/.
LCOE ($M)

(2019). Accessed 12 July 2021

7. Lawrence, D., Vandecar, K.: Effects of tropical deforestation
on climate and agriculture. Nat. Clim. Change 5, 27–36 (2015).
0.189

0.081
0.16

https://​doi.​org/​10.​1038/​nclim​ate24​30
8. Kumar, M.: Social, economic, and environmental impacts of
renewable energy resources. In: Okedu, K.E., Tahour, A., Ais-
NPC ($M)

saou, A.G. (eds.) Wind solar hybrid renewable energy system.

Intech Open (2020). https://​doi.​org/​10.​5772/​intec​hopen.​89494
38.5

89.1

34.2

9. Eshra, N.M., Zobaa, A.F., Aleem, S.H.E.A.: Assessment of mini

and micro hydropower potential in Egypt: multi-criteria analysis.
Coverage (%)

Energy Rep. 7, 81–94 (2021). https://d​ oi.o​ rg/1​ 0.1​ 016/j.e​ gyr.2​ 020.​
11.​165
10. Quan, P., Leephakpreeda, T.: Assessment of wind energy potential
9.68
64.3
35.7
34.5
65.5

90.3

for selecting wind turbines: an application to Thailand. Sustain.

Energy Technol. Assess. 11, 17–26 (2015). https://​doi.​org/​10.​
1016/j.​seta.​2015.​05.​002
production (kwh/

11. Faiz, F.U.H., Shakoor, R., Raheem, A., et al.: Modeling and analy-
Annual power

sis of 3 MW solar photovoltaic plant using PVSyst at Islamia

12,333,782
6,845,863
12,942,077
24,560,679
3,272,650
30,536,179

University of Bahawalpur, Pakistan. Int. J. Photo Energy. (2021).

https://​doi.​org/​10.​1155/​2021/​66734​48
year)

12. Panwar, N.L., Kaushik, S.C., Kothari, S.: Role of renewable

energy sources in environmental protection: a review. Renew.
Sustain. Energy Rev. 15(3), 1513–1524 (2011). https://​doi.​org/​
Components

10.​1016/j.​rser.​2010.​11.​037
Generator

Generator

13. Abanda, F.H.: Renewable energy sources in Cameroon: poten-

Hydro

Hydro

Hydro

tials, benefits and enabling environment. Renew. Sustain.

Wind

Energy Rev. 16(7), 4557–4562 (2012). https://​doi.​org/​10.​1016/j.​

rser.​2012.​04.​011
14. Omer, A.M.: Energy, environment and sustainable development.
Shashego

Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 12(9), 2265–2300 (2008). https://​

Siraro
Weira
Sites

doi.​org/​10.​1016/j.​rser.​2007.​05.​001

13
International Journal of Energy and Environmental Engineering
15. JICA.: JICA’s support in African energy development. https://​
www.​jica.​go.​jp/​infor​mation/​semin​ar/​2018/​ku57p​q0000​2jdu78-​
att/​20190​214_​01_​03.​pdf (2019). Accessed 21 Dec 2020
16. Fentie, A., Beyene, A.D.: Climate-smart agricultural practices
and welfare of rural smallholders in Ethiopia: does planting
method matter? Land Use Policy 85, 387–396 (2019). https://​
doi.​org/​10.​1016/j.​landu​sepol.​2019.​04.​020
17. Mishra, T., Rabha, A., Kumar, U., Arunachalam, K., Sridhar, V.:
Assessment of solar power potential in a hill state of India using
remote sensing and geographic information system. Remote
Sens. Appl. Soc. Environ. (2020). https://​d oi.​o rg/​1 0.​1 016/j.​
rsase.​2020.​100370
18. Asfaw, A., Simane, B., Bantider, A., et al.: Determinants in the
adoption of climate change adaptation strategies: evidence from
rainfed-dependent smallholder farmers in north-central Ethio-
pia (Woleka sub-basin). Environ. Dev. Sustain. 21, 2535–2565
(2019). https://​doi.​org/​10.​1007/​s10668-​018-​0150-y
19. Ram, S.K., Das, B.B., Mahapatra, K., Mohanty, S.P., Choppali,
U.: Energy perspectives in IoT driven smart villages and smart
cities. IEEE Consum. Electron. Mag. 10(3), 19–28 (2021).
https://​doi.​org/​10.​1109/​MCE.​2020.​30232​93
20. Gašparović, I., Gašparović, M.: Determining optimal solar
power plant locations based on remote sensing and gis methods:
a case study from Croatia. Remote Sens. 11(12), 1481 (2019).
https://​doi.​org/​10.​3390/​rs111​21481
21. Calaudi, R., Feudo, T.L., Calidonna, C.R., Sempreviva, A.M.:
Using remote sensing data for integrating different renewable
energy sources at coastal site in South Italy. Energy Proc. 97,
172–178 (2016). https://​doi.​org/​10.​1016/j.​egypro.​2016.​10.​046
22. Dawood, N., Dawood, H., Rodriguez-Trejo, S., et al.: Visualis-
ing urban energy use: the use of LiDAR and remote sensing data
in urban energy planning. Vis. Eng. 5, 22 (2017). https://​doi.​
org/​10.​1186/​s40327-​017-​0060-3
23. José, R.S., Pérez-Camaño, J.L., Pérez, L., Barras, R.M.G.:
Expected changes in the demand for electrical energy in build-
ings due to climate change and its economic impact: Madrid
case study. IOP Conf Ser. Earth Environ. Sci. (2020). https://​
doi.​org/​10.​1088/​1755-​1315/​544/1/​012014
24. Avtar, R., Sahu, N., Aggarwal, A.K., et al.: Exploring renew-
able energy resources using remote sensing and GIS—a review.
Resources 8, 149 (2019). https://​d oi.​o rg/​1 0.​3 390/​resou​rces8​
030149
25. Gottschall, J., Dörenkämper, M.: Understanding and mitigating
the impact of data gaps on offshore wind resource estimates.
Wind Energy Sci. 6, 505–520 (2021). https://​doi.​org/​10.​5194/​
wes-6-​505-​2021
26. Bender, F.D., Sentelhas, P.C.: Solar radiation models and grid-
ded databases to fill gaps in weather series and to project cli-
mate change in Brazil. Adv. Meteorol. (2018). https://​doi.​org/​
10.​1155/​2018/​62043​82
27. Yang, J., Maogui, Hu.: Filling the missing data gaps of daily
MODIS AOD using spatiotemporal interpolation. Sci. Total
Environ. 633, 677–683 (2018). https://​doi.​org/​10.​1016/j.​scito​
tenv.​2018.​03.​202
28. Nefabas, K.L., Söder, L., Mamo, M., Olauson, J.: Modeling of
Ethiopian wind power production using ERA5 reanalysis data.
Energies 14(9), 2573 (2021). https://d​ oi.o​ rg/1​ 0.3​ 390/e​ n1409​ 2573
29. Giovanni, G.: Reliability of ERA5 reanalysis data for wind
resource assessment: a comparison against tall towers. Energies
14(14), 4169 (2021). https://​doi.​org/​10.​3390/​en141​44169
30. Olauson, J.: ERA5: the new champion of wind power modelling?
Renew. Energy 126, 322–331 (2018). https://​doi.​org/​10.​1016/j.​
renene.​2018.​03.​056
31. Abdulhameed, B.O., Benyoh, K.N., Jong, W.R., Dongjun, S.,
Jeung-Soo, H.: Measurement and verification analysis on the
energy performance of a retrofit residential building after energy
efficiency measures using RETScreen Expert. Alex. Eng. J. 59(6),
4643–4657 (2020). https://​doi.​org/​10.​1016/j.​aej.​2020.​08.​022
32. Sinha, S., Chandel, S.S.: Review of software tools for hybrid
renewable energy systems. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 32,
192–205 (2014). https://​doi.​org/​10.​1016/j.​rser.​2014.​01.​035
33. Getie, E.M.: Poverty of energy and its impact on living standards
in Ethiopia. J. Electr. Comput. Eng. (2020). https://​doi.​org/​10.​
1155/​2020/​75025​83
34. Girma, Z.: Technical and economic assessment of solar PV/diesel
hybrid power system for rural school electrification in Ethiopia.
Int. J. Renew. Energy Res. 3(3), 735–744 (2014). https://​doi.​org/​
10.​20508/​ijrer.​v3i3.​819.​g6199
35. Kiflom Gebrehiwot, Md., Mondal, A.H., Ringler, C., Gebremeskel,
A.G.: Optimization and cost-benefit assessment of hybrid power
systems for off-grid rural electrification in Ethiopia. Energy 177,
234–246 (2019). https://​doi.​org/​10.​1016/j.​energy.​2019.​04.​095
36. Goel, S., Sharma, R.: Performance evaluation of stand alone, grid
connected and hybrid renewable energy systems for rural appli-
cation: a comparative review. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 78,
1378–1389 (2017). https://​doi.​org/​10.​1016/j.​rser.​2017.​05.​200
37. Izadyar, N., Ong, H.C., Chong, W.T., Leong, K.Y.: Resource
assessment of the renewable energy potential for a remote area: a
review. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 62, 908–923 (2016). https://​
doi.​org/​10.​1016/j.​rser.​2016.​05.​005
38. Khan, R.B., Jidin, R., Pasupuleti, J., Shaaya, S.A.: Optimal com-
bination of solar, wind, micro-hydro and diesel systems based on
actual seasonal load profiles for a resort island in the South China
Sea. Energy 82, 80–97 (2015). https://​doi.​org/​10.​1016/j.​energy.​
2014.​12.​072
39. Bekele, G., Tadesse, G.: Feasibility study of small hydro/PV/wind
hybrid system for off-grid rural electrification in Ethiopia. Appl.
Energy 97, 5–15 (2012). https://​doi.​org/​10.​1016/j.​apene​rgy.​2011.​
11.​059
40. Nannawo, A.S., Lohani, T.K., Eshete, A.A.: Exemplifying the
effects using WetSpass model depicting the landscape modifica-
tions on long-term surface and subsurface hydrological water bal-
ance in Bilate Basin, Ethiopia. Adv. Civ. Eng, (2021). https://​doi.​
org/​10.​1155/​2021/​72830​02
41. Getahun, W., Eshetu, Z., Argaw, M.: Temporal and spatial vari-
ability of rainfall distribution and evapotranspiration across alti-
tudinal gradient in the Bilate River Watershed, Southern Ethiopia.
Afr. J. Environ. Sci. Technol. 10(6), 167–180 (2016). https://​doi.​
org/​10.​5897/​AJEST​2015.​2029
42. CSA.; Population projections for Ethiopia 2007–2037. Central
Statistical Agency (CSA) of Ethiopia, Annual Report (2013).
https://​www.​stats​ethio​pia.​gov.​et/​wp-​conte​nt/​uploa​ds/​2019/​05/​
ICPS-​Popul​ation-​Proje​ction-​2007-​2037-​produ​ced-​in-​2012.​pdf.
Accessed 12 June 2021
43. Yozgatligil, C., Aslan, S., Iyigun, C., et al.: Comparison of miss-
ing value imputation methods in time series: the case of Turkish
meteorological data. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 112, 143–167 (2013).
https://​doi.​org/​10.​1007/​s00704-​012-​0723-x
44. Aly, A., Pathak, C., Teegavarapu, R., Ahlquist, J., Fuelberg, H.:
Evaluation of improvised spatial interpolation methods for infill-
ing missing precipitation records. In: World environmental and
water resources congress (2009)
45. Miao, C., Su, L., Sun, Q., Duan, Q.: A nonstationary bias-correc-
tion technique to remove bias in GCM simulations. J. Geophys.
Res. Atmos. 121, 5718–5735 (2016). https://​doi.​org/​10.​1002/​
2015J​D0241​59
46. Durai, V.R., Bhradwaj, R.: Evaluation of statistical bias correction
methods for numerical weather prediction model forecasts of max-
imum and minimum temperatures. Nat. Hazards 73, 1229–1254
(2014). https://​doi.​org/​10.​1007/​s11069-​014-​1136-1
47. Luo, M., Liu, T., Meng, F., Duan, Y., Frank, A., et al.: Compar-
ing bias correction methods used in downscaling precipitation
13

and temperature from regional climate models: a case study from
the Kaidu River Basin in Western China. Water 10, 1046 (2018).
https://​doi.​org/​10.​3390/​w1008​1046
48. HBV-IHMS manual.: Integrated hydrological modelling system
manual version 5.10 (2012). https://w ​ ww.a​ cadem ​ ia.e​ du/7​ 58039​ 7/​
IHMS_I​ ntegr​ ated_H ​ ydrol​ ogica​ l_M
​ odell​ ing_S
​ ystem. Accessed 21
Feb 2021
49. Asnake, A.B., Ayana, M.T., Awass, A.A., Goshime, D.W.: Trans-
formation of climate and its sway on hydro-climatology using
representative concentration pathways (RCP) in Geba catchment
of Ethiopia. Model. Earth Syst. Environ. (2020). https://​doi.​org/​
10.​1007/​s40808-​020-​01029-9
50. Sachin Mishra, S.K., Singal, D.K.K.: Optimal installation of small
hydropower plant—a review. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 15(8),
3862–3869 (2011). https://​doi.​org/​10.​1016/j.​rser.​2011.​07.​008
51. Sachdev, H.S., Akella, A.K., Kumar, N.: Analysis and evaluation
of small hydropower plants: a bibliographical survey. Renew. Sus-
tain. Energy Rev. 51, 1013–1022 (2015). https://d​ oi.o​ rg/1​ 0.1​ 016/j.​
rser.​2015.​06.​065
52. Bezie, Y.M.: Feasibility study of small hydropower/PV/wind
hybrid system for off-grid electrification of liben and medawou-
labu villages (Dissertation) (2017). http://​urn.​kb.​se/​resol​ve?​urn=​
urn:​nbn:​se:​hig:​diva-​23841. Accessed 2 July 2021
53. Mostafaeipour, A., Qolipour, M., Rezaei, M., Goudarzi, H.:
Techno-economic assessment of using wind power system for
tribal region of Gachsaran in Iran. J. Eng. Des. Technol. 18(2),
293–307 (2020). https://​doi.​org/​10.​1108/​JEDT-​05-​2019-​0132
54. Shahzad, K., Zahid, A., Rashid, T., Rehan, M.A., Ali, M., Ahmad,
M.: Techno-economic feasibility analysis of a solar-biomass off
grid system for the electrification of remote rural areas in Pakistan
using HOMER software. Renew. Energy 106, 264–273 (2017).
https://​doi.​org/​10.​1016/j.​renene.​2017.​01.​033
55. Jordehi, A.R.: Parameter estimation of solar photovoltaic (PV)
cells: a review. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 61, 354–371 (2016).
https://​doi.​org/​10.​1016/j.​rser.​2016.​03.​049
56. Das, B.K., Alotaibi, M.A., Das, P., Islam, M.S., Das, S.K., Hos-
sain, M.A.: Feasibility and techno-economic analysis of stand-
alone and grid-connected PV/Wind/Diesel/Batt hybrid energy
system: a case study. Energy Strat. Rev. (2021). https://​doi.​org/​
10.​1016/j.​esr.​2021.​100673
57. Jahangir, M.H., Fakouriyan, S., Rad, M.A.V., Dehghan, H.: Feasi-
bility study of on/off grid large-scale PV/WT/WEC hybrid energy
system in coastal cities: a case-based research. Renewable Energy
162, 2075–2095 (2020). https://d​ oi.o​ rg/1​ 0.1​ 016/j.r​ enene.2​ 020.0​ 9.​
131
13
International Journal of Energy and Environmental Engineering
58. Mandal, S., Das, B.K., Hoque, N.: Optimum sizing of a stand-
alone hybrid energy system for rural electrification in Bangladesh.
J. Clean. Prod. 200, 12–27 (2018). https://​doi.​org/​10.​1016/j.​jclep​
ro.​2018.​07.​257
59. Frank, C.W., Wahl, S., Keller, J.D., Pospichal, B., Hense, A.,
Crewell, S.: Bias correction of a novel European reanalysis data
set for solar energy applications. Sol. Energy 164, 12–24 (2018).
https://​doi.​org/​10.​1016/j.​solen​er.​2018.​02.​012
60. Habib, E., Haile, A.T., Sazib, N., Zhang, Y., Rientjes, T.: Effect
of bias correction of satellite-rainfall estimates on runoff simula-
tions at the source of the Upper Blue Nile. Remote Sens. 6(7),
6688–6708 (2014). https://​doi.​org/​10.​3390/​rs607​6688
61. Shea, R.P., Ramgolam, Y.K.: Applied levelized cost of electric-
ity for energy technologies in a small island developing state: a
case study in Mauritius. Renew. Energy (2018). https://​doi.​org/​
10.​1016/j.​renene.​2018.​09.​021
62. Lai, C.S., McCulloch, M.D.: Levelized cost of electricity for solar
photovoltaic and electrical energy storage. Appl. Energy 190,
191–203 (2017). https://​doi.​org/​10.​1016/j.​apene​rgy.​2016.​12.​15
63. Kaya, A., Tok, M.E., Koc, M.: A levelized cost analysis for solar-
energy-powered sea water desalination in The Emirate of Abu
Dhabi. Sustainability 11(6), 1691 (2019). https://d​ oi.o​ rg/1​ 0.3​ 390/​
su110​61691
64. Gürtürk, M.: Economic feasibility of solar power plants based on
PV module with levelized cost analysis. Energy 171, 866–878
(2019). https://​doi.​org/​10.​1016/j.​energy.​2019.​01.​090
65. Hailu, A.D., Kumsa, D.K.: Ethiopia renewable energy potentials
and current state. AIMS Energy 9(1), 1–14 (2020). https://d​ oi.o​ rg/​
10.​3934/​ENERGY.​20210​01
66. Beza, T.M., Chen-Han, Wu., Kuo, C.-C.: Optimal sizing and
techno-economic analysis of minigrid hybrid renewable energy
system for tourist destination islands of Lake Tana, Ethiopia.
Appl. Sci. 11(15), 7085 (2021). https://​doi.​org/​10.​3390/​app11​
157085
67. Bilal, B.O., Nourou, D., Kébé, C.M.F., Sambou, V., Ndiaye, P.A.,
Ndongo, M.: Multi-objective optimization of hybrid PV/wind/
diesel/battery systems for decentralized application by minimizing
the levelized cost of energy and the ­CO2 emissions. Int. J. Phys.
Sci. 10(5), 192–203 (2015)
Publisher's Note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to
jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.