(eBook PDF) The Analysis of Time

Series: An Introduction with R 7th

Edition
Go to download the full and correct content document:
https://ebooksecure.com/product/ebook-pdf-the-analysis-of-time-series-an-introductio
n-with-r-7th-edition/
More products digital (pdf, epub, mobi) instant
download maybe you interests ...

(eBook PDF) Time Series: A Data Analysis Approach Using

R

http://ebooksecure.com/product/ebook-pdf-time-series-a-data-
analysis-approach-using-r/

Analysis with an introduction to proof. Fifth Edition,

Pearson New International Edition Steven R. Lay - eBook
PDF

https://ebooksecure.com/download/analysis-with-an-introduction-
to-proof-ebook-pdf/

(eBook PDF) An Introduction to Analysis 4th Edition by

William R. Wade

http://ebooksecure.com/product/ebook-pdf-an-introduction-to-
analysis-4th-edition-by-william-r-wade/

Understanding Price Action: practical analysis of the

5-minute time frame

http://ebooksecure.com/product/understanding-price-action-
practical-analysis-of-the-5-minute-time-frame/
Empowerment Series: An Introduction to the Profession
of Social Work - eBook PDF

https://ebooksecure.com/download/empowerment-series-an-
introduction-to-the-profession-of-social-work-ebook-pdf/

(eBook PDF) Biostatistics with R An Introduction to

Statistics Through Biological Data

http://ebooksecure.com/product/ebook-pdf-biostatistics-with-r-an-
introduction-to-statistics-through-biological-data/

(eBook PDF) An Introduction to Statistical Methods &

Data Analysis 7th

http://ebooksecure.com/product/ebook-pdf-an-introduction-to-
statistical-methods-data-analysis-7th/

(eBook PDF) Empowerment Series: An Introduction to the

Profession of Social Work 5th Edition

http://ebooksecure.com/product/ebook-pdf-empowerment-series-an-
introduction-to-the-profession-of-social-work-5th-edition/

(eBook PDF) Empowerment Series An Introduction to the

Profession of Social Work 6th Edition

http://ebooksecure.com/product/ebook-pdf-empowerment-series-an-
introduction-to-the-profession-of-social-work-6th-edition/
 Contents

Preface to the Seventh Edition xiii

Abbreviations and Notation xv

1 Introduction 1
1.1 Some Representative Time Series 1
1.2 Terminology 8
1.3 Objectives of Time Series Analysis 9
1.4 Approaches to Time Series Analysis 11
1.5 Review of Books on Time Series 12

2 Basic Descriptive Techniques 15

2.1 Types of Variation 15
2.2 Stationary Time Series 17
2.3 The Time Plot 17
2.4 Transformations 18
2.5 Analysing Series that Contain a Trend and No Seasonal
Variation 19
2.5.1 Curve fitting 20
2.5.2 Filtering 21
2.5.3 Differencing 25
2.5.4 Other approaches 25
2.6 Analysing Series that Contain a Trend and Seasonal Variation 25
2.7 Autocorrelation and the Correlogram 28
2.7.1 The correlogram 30
2.7.2 Interpreting the correlogram 31
2.8 Other Tests of Randomness 36
2.9 Handling Real Data 37

3 Some Linear Time Series Models 41

3.1 Stochastic Processes and Their Properties 41
3.2 Stationary Processes 42
3.3 Properties of the Autocorrelation Function 44
3.4 Purely Random Processes 45
3.5 Random Walks 47
3.6 Moving Average Processes 47

vii
viii CONTENTS
3.6.1 Stationarity and autocorrelation function of an MA
process 48
3.6.2 Invertibility of an MA process 49
3.7 Autoregressive Processes 52
3.7.1 First-order process 53
3.7.2 General-order process 54
3.8 Mixed ARMA Models 59
3.8.1 Stationarity and invertibility conditions 60
3.8.2 Yule-Walker equations and autocorrelations 60
3.8.3 AR and MA representations 62
3.9 Integrated ARMA (or ARIMA) Models 63
3.10 Fractional Differencing and Long-Memory Models 64
3.11 The General Linear Process 69
3.12 Continuous Processes 69
3.13 The Wold Decomposition Theorem 70

4 Fitting Time Series Models in the Time Domain 77

4.1 Estimating Autocovariance and Autocorrelation Functions 77
4.1.1 Using the correlogram in modelling 80
4.1.2 Estimating the mean 80
4.1.3 Ergodicity 81
4.2 Fitting an Autoregressive Process 81
4.2.1 Estimating parameters of an AR process 82
4.2.2 Determining the order of an AR process 84
4.3 Fitting a Moving Average Process 88
4.3.1 Estimating parameters of an MA process 88
4.3.2 Determining the order of an MA process 90
4.4 Estimating Parameters of an ARMA Model 94
4.5 Model Identification Tools 97
4.6 Testing for Unit Roots 99
4.7 Estimating Parameters of an ARIMA Model 102
4.8 Box–Jenkins Seasonal ARIMA Models 103
4.9 Residual Analysis 107
4.10 General Remarks on Model Building 110

5 Forecasting 115
5.1 Introduction 115
5.2 Extrapolation and Exponential Smoothing 117
5.2.1 Extrapolation of trend curves 118
5.2.2 Simple exponential smoothing 118
5.2.3 The Holt and Holt–Winters forecasting procedures 120
5.3 The Box–Jenkins Methodology 123
5.3.1 The Box-Jenkins procedures 123
5.3.2 Other methods 127
5.3.3 Prediction intervals 128
CONTENTS ix
5.4 Multivariate Procedures 135
5.4.1 Multiple regression 135
5.4.2 Econometric models 137
5.4.3 Other multivariate models 138
5.5 Comparative Review of Forecasting Procedures 138
5.5.1 Forecasting competitions 139
5.5.2 Choosing a non-automatic method 141
5.5.3 A strategy for non-automatic univariate forecasting 143
5.5.4 Summary 144
5.6 Prediction Theory 145

6 Stationary Processes in the Frequency Domain 149

6.1 Introduction 149
6.2 The Spectral Distribution Function 149
6.3 The Spectral Density Function 154
6.4 The Spectrum of a Continuous Process 157
6.5 Derivation of Selected Spectra 158

7 Spectral Analysis 167

7.1 Fourier Analysis 167
7.2 A Simple Sinusoidal Model 168
7.3 Periodogram Analysis 172
7.3.1 The relationship between the periodogram and the
autocovariance function 175
7.3.2 Properties of the periodogram 175
7.4 Some Consistent Estimation Procedures 177
7.4.1 Transforming the truncated autocovariance function 177
7.4.2 Hanning 179
7.4.3 Hamming 180
7.4.4 Smoothing the periodogram 180
7.4.5 The fast Fourier transform (FFT) 183
7.5 Confidence Intervals for the Spectrum 185
7.6 Comparison of Different Estimation Procedures 186
7.7 Analysing a Continuous Time Series 191
7.8 Examples and Discussion 193

8 Bivariate Processes 199

8.1 Cross-Covariance and Cross-Correlation 199
8.1.1 Examples 201
8.1.2 Estimation 202
8.1.3 Interpretation 203
8.2 The Cross-Spectrum 204
8.2.1 Examples 206
8.2.2 Estimation 209
8.2.3 Interpretation 211
x CONTENTS
9 Linear Systems 217
9.1 Introduction 217
9.2 Linear Systems in the Time Domain 219
9.2.1 Some types of linear systems 219
9.2.2 The impulse response function: An explanation 221
9.2.3 The step response function 222
9.3 Linear Systems in the Frequency Domain 223
9.3.1 The frequency response function 223
9.3.2 Gain and phase diagrams 227
9.3.3 Some examples 229
9.3.4 General relation between input and output 231
9.3.5 Linear systems in series 236
9.3.6 Design of filters 237
9.4 Identification of Linear Systems 238
9.4.1 Estimating the frequency response function 240
9.4.2 The Box–Jenkins approach 243
9.4.3 Systems involving feedback 247

10 State-Space Models and the Kalman Filter 253

10.1 State-Space Models 253
10.1.1 The random walk plus noise model 256
10.1.2 The linear growth model 256
10.1.3 The basic structural model 257
10.1.4 State-space representation of an AR(2) process 258
10.1.5 Bayesian forecasting 259
10.1.6 A regression model with time-varying coefficients 260
10.1.7 Model building 260
10.2 The Kalman Filter 261

11 Non-Linear Models 267

11.1 Introduction 267
11.1.1 Why non-linearity? 267
11.1.2 What is a linear model? 270
11.1.3 What is a non-linear model? 271
11.1.4 What is white noise? 272
11.2 Non-Linear Autoregressive Processes 273
11.3 Threshold Autoregressive Models 274
11.4 Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models 280
11.5 Bilinear Models 284
11.6 Regime-Switching Models 285
11.7 Neural Networks 290
11.8 Chaos 296
11.9 Concluding Remarks 300
11.10 Bibliography 301
CONTENTS xi
12 Volatility Models 303
12.1 Structure of a Model for Asset Returns 303
12.2 Historic Volatility 305
12.3 Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (ARCH) Models 306
12.4 Generalized ARCH Models 311
12.5 The ARMA-GARCH Models 315
12.6 Other ARCH-Type Models 318
12.6.1 The integrated GARCH model 319
12.6.2 The exponential GARCH model 320
12.7 Stochastic Volatility Models 320
12.8 Bibliography 321

13 Multivariate Time Series Modelling 323

13.1 Introduction 323
13.1.1 One equation or many? 324
13.1.2 The cross-correlation function 326
13.1.3 Initial data analysis 327
13.2 Single Equation Models 330
13.3 Vector Autoregressive Models 331
13.3.1 VAR(1) models 331
13.3.2 VAR(p) models 332
13.4 Vector ARMA Models 334
13.5 Fitting VAR and VARMA Models 335
13.6 Co-Integration 344
13.7 Multivariate Volatility Models 345
13.7.1 Exponentially weighted estimate 345
13.7.2 BEKK models 346
13.8 Bibliography 348

14 Some More Advanced Topics 351

14.1 Modelling Non-Stationary Time Series 351
14.2 Model Uncertainty 353
14.3 Control Theory 355
14.4 Miscellanea 356
14.4.1 Autoregressive spectrum estimation 357
14.4.2 Wavelets 357
14.4.3 ‘Crossing’ problems 358
14.4.4 Observations at unequal intervals, including missing
values 358
14.4.5 Outliers and robust methods 359
14.4.6 Repeated measurements 361
14.4.7 Aggregation of time series 361
14.4.8 Spatial and spatio-temporal series 362
14.4.9 Time series in finance 362
14.4.10 Discrete-valued time series 364
xii CONTENTS
Appendix A Fourier, Laplace, and z-Transforms 365

Appendix B Dirac Delta Function 369

Appendix C Covariance and Correlation 371

Answers to Exercises 373

References 381

Index 395
 Preface to the Seventh Edition

The first six editions of this book highlight basic concepts, models, and
methods in time series analysis, and have been used as a text for
undergraduate and graduate-level time series courses in many universities
during the past three decades. Although the previous editions successfully
introduce time series analysis in an accessible way, there is a small gap between
presenting time series theory and discussing its implementation, especially
given the fact that, recently, many statistical analyses can be easily carried
out with the aid of statistical software. I gradually realized this when I used the
sixth edition of the book for my time series courses during the past decade, and
felt that it would be much more convenient for both instructors and students
to have an introductory time series textbook that highlights not only basic
time series theory but the implementation of time series analysis as well.
Obviously, Chris Chatfield shared the same view with me. The concrete
idea of having this edition of the book arose in 2016 when Chris Chatfield
and Rob Calver, Executive Editor in Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics at
Taylor and Francis, asked me if I was interested in revising the sixth edition
of the book. By then, I had been teaching undergraduate and graduate-level
time series courses for over ten years, and had collected a set of examples on
real data analysis with R implementation, so I expressed my interest to both
Rob and Chris and started working on the new edition.
Similar to the sixth edition, this edition assumes knowledge of basic
probability theory and elementary statistical inference. As the sixth edition of
the book covers a broad range of topics at the introductory level, this edition
keeps most of the material from the sixth edition. However, several changes
are made in this edition. First, a new chapter (Chapter 12) and a new section
(Section 13.7) are added to introduce uni- and multi-variate volatility models
in finance, respectively. Necessary updates are also made in different chapters
and sections. Second, many examples and real data are added in this edition.
Specifically, I added examples of real data analysis in most chapters except for
Chapters 9 and 10. Third, all examples in the book are implemented with R,
and R codes for most examples are provided in the book so that the reader can
easily replicate the result. The data and scripts in the book are available at
http://www.ams.sunysb.edu/~xing/tsRbook/index.html.
I would like to thank Chris Chatfield for his invitation and authorization
for revising the book. I also thank all the students who took my time series
course for their interest in the subject and comments on the earlier draft

xiii
xiv PREFACE TO THE SEVENTH EDITION
of the book. Besides, I want to express my gratitude to my colleagues for
being supportive and helpful over the years. At last, I want to thank the
U.S. National Science Foundation for providing support for my research and
teaching during the past years. Any errors, omissions, or obscurities in this
edition are my responsibility.

Haipeng Xing
Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics
State University of New York, Stony Brook
Stony Brook, NY 11794, U.S.A.
e-mail: haipeng.xing@stonybrook.edu
 Abbreviations and Notation

AR Autoregressive
MA Moving average
ARMA Autoregressive moving average
ARIMA Autoregressive integrated moving average
SARIMA Seasonal ARIMA
TAR Threshold autoregressive
GARCH Generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic
SWN Strict white noise
WN White noise

MMSE Minimum mean square error

P.I. Prediction interval
FFT Fast Fourier transform

ac.f. Autocorrelation function

acv.f. Autocovariance function

N Sample size, or length of observed time series

x
bN (h) Forecast of xN +h made at time N
B Backward shift operator such that BXt = Xt−1
Bd B d Xt = Xt−d
∇ First differencing operator, (1 − B), such that
∇Xt = Xt − Xt−1
∇d ∇d = 1 − B d
∇rd ∇rd = (1 − B d )r
E Expectation or expected value
Var Variance
I Identity matrix – a square matrix with ones on the
diagonal and zeros otherwise
N (µ, σ 2 ) Normal distribution with mean µ and variance σ 2
χ2ν Chi-square distribution with ν degrees of freedom
{Zt } or {εt } Purely random process of independent random variables,
usually N (0, σ 2 )-distributed
AT or X T Transpose of a matrix A or vector X — vectors are
indicated by boldface, but not scalars or matrices

xv
 Chapter 1

Introduction

A time series is a collection of observations made sequentially through time.

Examples occur in a variety of fields, ranging from economics to engineering,
and methods of analysing time series constitute an important area of statistics.

1.1 Some Representative Time Series

We begin with some examples of the sort of time series that arise in practice.

Economic and financial time series

Many time series are routinely recorded in economics and finance. Examples
include share prices on successive days, export totals in successive months,
average incomes in successive months, company profits in successive years
and so on.
The classic Beveridge wheat price index series consists of the average wheat
price in nearly 50 places in various countries measured in successive years
from 1500 to 1869 (Beveridge, 1921). This series is of particular interest to
economics historians, and is available in many places (e.g. in the tseries
package of R). Figure 1.1 shows this series and some apparent cyclic behaviour
can be seen. The trend of the series will be studied in Section 2.5.2.
To plot the data using the R statistical package, you can load the data bev
in the tseries package and plot the time series (the > below are prompts):

> library(tseries) # load the library

> data(bev) # load the dataset
> plot(bev, xlab="Year", ylab="Wheat price index", xaxt="n")
> x.pos<-c(1500, 1560, 1620, 1680, 1740, 1800, 1869)
# define x-axis labels
> axis(1, x.pos, x.pos)

As an example of financial time series, Figure 1.2 shows the daily returns
(or percentage change) of the adjusted closing prices of the Standard & Poor’s
500 (S&P500) Index from January 4, 1995 to December 30, 2016. The data
shown in Figure 1.2 are typical of return data. The mean of the return series
seems to be stable with an average return of approximately zero, but the
volatility of data changes over time. This series will be analyzed in Chapter 12.

1
2 INTRODUCTION

300
Wheat price index

200
100
0

1500 1560 1620 1680 1740 1800 1869

Year

Figure 1.1 The Beveridge wheat price annual index series from 1500 to 1869.
10
5
Daily return

0
−5

1/4/1995 5/7/2001 9/19/2007 1/28/2014

Day

Figure 1.2 Daily returns of the adjusted closing prices of the S&P500 index from
January 4, 1995 to December 30, 2016.
SOME REPRESENTATIVE TIME SERIES 3
To reproduce Figure 1.2 in R, suppose you save the data as
sp500 ret 1995-2016.csv in the directory mydata. Then you can use the
following command to read the data and plot the time series.

> sp500<-read.csv("mydata/sp500_ret_1995-2016.csv")
> n<-nrow(sp500)
> x.pos<-c(seq(1,n,800),n)
> plot(sp500$Return, type="l", xlab="Day",
ylab="Daily return", xaxt="n")
> axis(1, x.pos, sp500$Date[x.pos])

Physical time series

Many types of time series occur in the physical sciences, particularly
in meteorology, marine science and geophysics. Examples are rainfall on
successive days, and air temperature measured in successive hours, days or
months. Figure 1.3 shows the average air temperature in Anchorage, Alaska
in the United States in successive months over a 16-year period. The series can
be downloaded from the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Information
(https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/). Seasonal fluctuations can be clearly
seen in the series.

Some mechanical recorders take measurements continuously and produce

a continuous trace rather than observations at discrete intervals of time.
For example, in some laboratories it is important to keep temperature and
humidity as constant as possible and so devices are installed to measure
these variables continuously. Action may be taken when the trace goes
outside pre-specified limits. Visual examination of the trace may be adequate
for many purposes, but, for more detailed analysis, it is customary to
convert the continuous trace to a series in discrete time by sampling the
trace at appropriate equal intervals of time. The resulting analysis is more
straightforward and can readily be handled by standard time series software.

Marketing time series

The analysis of time series arising in marketing is an important problem in
commerce. Observed variables could include sales figures in successive weeks or
months, monetary receipts, advertising costs and so on. As an example, Figure
1.4 shows the domestic sales of Australian fortified wine by winemakers in
successive quarters over a 30-year period, which are available at the Australian
Bureau of Statistics (http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/). This series will
be analysed in Sections 4.8 and 4.9. Note the trend and seasonal variation
which is typical of sales data. It is often important to forecast future sales so
as to plan production. It may also be of interest to examine the relationship
between sales and other time series such as advertising expenditure.
4 INTRODUCTION

10
Average temperature

0
−10
−20

01/2001 01/2005 01/2009 01/2013 12/2016

Month

Figure 1.3 Monthly average air temperature (deg C) in Anchorage, Alaska, the
United States, in successive months from 2001 to 2016.
10000
Sales in thousand liters

8000
6000
4000

Mar−1985 Mar−1990 Mar−1995 Mar−2000 Mar−2005 Mar−2010 Jun−2014

Month

Figure 1.4 Domestic sales (unit: thousand liters) of Australian fortified wine by
winemakers in successive quarters from March 1985 to June 2014.
SOME REPRESENTATIVE TIME SERIES 5

3.0e+08
Population
2.4e+08
1.8e+08

1960 1967 1974 1981 1988 1995 2002 2009 2015

Year
24
22
20
Birth rates
18
16
14
12

1960 1967 1974 1981 1988 1995 2002 2009 2015

Year

Figure 1.5 Total population and birth rate (per 1,000 people) for the United States
from 1965 to 2015.

Demographic time series

Various time series occur in the study of population change. Examples include
the total population of Canada measured annually, and monthly birth totals in
England. Figure 1.5 shows the total population and crude birth rate (per 1,000
people) for the United States from 1965 to 2015. The data are available at the
U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/).
Demographers want to predict changes in population for as long as 10 or 20
years into the future, and are helped by the slowly changing structure of a
human population. Standard time series methods can be applied to study this
problem.
To reproduce Figure 1.5 in R, you can use the following command to read
the data and plot the time series.
> pop<-read.csv("mydata/US_pop_birthrate.csv", header=T)
> x.pos<-c(seq(1, 56, 7), 56)
> x.label<-c(seq(1960, 2009, by=7), 2015)

> par(mfrow=c(2,1), mar=c(3,4,3,4))

> plot(pop[,2], type="l", xlab="", ylab="", xaxt="n")
> points(pop[,2])
> axis(1, x.pos, x.label, cex.axis=1.2)
> title(xlab="Year", ylab="Population", line=2, cex.lab=1.2)
6 INTRODUCTION

Process variable

Target value

Time

Figure 1.6 A process control chart.

> plot(pop[,3], type="l", xlab="", ylab="", xaxt="n")

> points(pop[,3])
> axis(1, x.pos, x.label, cex.axis=1.2)
> title(xlab="Year", ylab="Birth rates", line=2, cex.lab=1.2)

Process control data

In process control, a problem is to detect changes in the performance of a
manufacturing process by measuring a variable, which shows the quality of
the process. These measurements can be plotted against time as in Figure 1.6.
When the measurements stray too far from some target value, appropriate
corrective action should be taken to control the process. Special techniques
have been developed for this type of time series problems, and the reader is
referred to a book on statistical quality control (e.g. Montgomery, 1996).

Binary processes
A special type of time series arises when observations can take one of only two
values, usually denoted by 0 and 1 (see Figure 1.7). For example, in computer
science, the position of a switch, either ‘on’ or ‘off’, could be recorded as one
or zero, respectively. Time series of this type, called binary processes, occur
in many situations, including the study of communication theory. A problem
here is to predict when the process will take a different value. One way to
solve this problem is to use regime-switching models, which will be discussed
in Chapter 11 (Section 11.6).
SOME REPRESENTATIVE TIME SERIES 7

0
Time

Figure 1.7 A realization of a binary process.

Point processes
A completely different type of time series occurs when we consider a series of
events occurring ‘randomly’ through time. For example, we could record the
dates of major railway disasters. A series of events of this type is usually
called a point process. As an example, Figure 1.8 shows the intraday
transaction data of the International Business Machines Corporation (IBM)
from 9:35:00 to 9:38:00 on January 4, 2010. When a trade event occurs, the
corresponding trading price and trading volume are observed. However, trades
do not occur equally spaced in time; hence time intervals between trades (or
trade durations) are considered as random variables. For observations of this
type, we are interested in such quantities as the distribution of the number
of events occurring in a given time period and distribution of time intervals
between events. Methods of analysing point process data are generally very
different from those used for analysing standard time series data and the
reader is referred, for example, to Cox and Isham (1980).
To reproduce Figure 1.8 in R, you can use the following command to read
the data and plot the time series.
> ibm<-read.table("mydata/taq_trade_ibm_100104.txt",
header=T, sep="\t")
> ibm.new<-ibm[,c(1,2,7)]
> ibm[,2]<-as.numeric(as.character(ibm[,2]))

> ### take 9:35:00-9:37:59am trading record

> data<-ibm.new[1458:2371,]
> newtime<-rep(0, nrow(data))
> for (i in 1:nrow(data)){
min<-as.numeric(substr(as.character(data$TIME[i]),3,4))
sec<-as.numeric(substr(as.character(data$TIME[i]),6,7))
8 INTRODUCTION

132.0
131.8
Price
131.6

9:35:00 9:35:31 9:36:00 9:36:30 9:37:00 9:37:30 9:38:00

Time
2000
Volume
500 1000
0

9:35:00 9:35:31 9:36:00 9:36:30 9:37:00 9:37:30 9:38:00

Time

Figure 1.8 Transaction prices and volumes of IBM stocks from 9:35:00 to 9:38:00
on January 4, 2010.

newtime[i]<- (min-30)*60+sec
}

> x.label<-c("9:35:00", "9:35:31", "9:36:00", "9:36:30",

"9:37:00", "9:37:30", "9:38:00")
> x.pos<-c(1, 139, 249, 485, 619, 776, 914)

> par(mfrow=c(2,1), mar=c(2,4,2,4))

> plot(newtime, data[,2],xlab="",ylab="",xaxt="n",type="h")
> axis(1, newtime[x.pos], x.label, cex.axis=1.2)
> title(xlab="Time", ylab="Price", line=2, cex.lab=1.2)
> plot(newtime, data[,3],xlab="",ylab="",xaxt="n",type="h")
> axis(1, newtime[x.pos], x.label, cex.axis=1.2)
> title(xlab="Time", ylab="Volume", line=2, cex.lab=1.2)

1.2 Terminology
A time series is said to be continuous when observations are made
continuously through time as in Figure 1.7. The adjective ‘continuous’ is
used for series of this type even when the measured variable can only take
a discrete set of values, as in Figure 1.7. A time series is said to be discrete
when observations are taken only at specific times, usually equally spaced.
Another random document with
no related content on Scribd:
glide on, let the dead of Raymond, Champion Hills and Vicksburg
never be forgotten. Let us think of them as standing guard over our
dearly won prize, until the bugle sounds for silence, while the angel
calls the roll. The third largest national cemetery in the United States
is located at Vicksburg. Each of the small head stones marks the
resting place of a hero. Seventeen thousand Union soldiers are
buried in the 50 acres in this consecrated spot, of which 12,957 have
the simple inscription, “Unknown,” marked on their head stones. But
they are not unknown to Him who cares for all. He takes cognizance
of the heroes who fell fighting for their country and for freedom.
Although their names are missing from the roster of the city where
their ashes lie, still the great Jehovah keeps the record of the brave,
and He will reward them in His own good time.
 CHAPTER XIV.
At the request of Captain W. T. Rigby, Chairman of the National
Military Park Commission of Vicksburg, to visit that place for the
purpose of locating the positions held by my regiment during the
siege in 1863, I did visit Vicksburg, Miss., in August, 1902.
I found the weather very hot, 99 degrees in the shade. However, it
was not as hot as it was when we were in that “crater” at Fort Hill,
years ago. The people of Vicksburg greeted me with a glad hand.
The contrast of long ago was striking. About the first man I met was
an old grizzled veteran wearing the Confederate button and, seeing
my G. A. R. button, he came up, and, extending his hand, greeted
me: “How are you, comrade; we wear different buttons, but we are
brothers;” and I shook his hand heartily and we had a pleasant chat
of the siege. Then, we were shooting minie-balls at each other; now,
our shots were story and laughter.
Captain Rigby drove me out to the Federal and Confederate lines.
Many changes have taken place. Some few of the trenches and
breastworks remain, but many have been smoothed off for the plow.
As we drove to the spot where we camped, near the old “Shirley
House,” I said to myself, “Am I dreaming?” Can it be that this quiet,
deserted place, overgrown with weeds and bushes, with no sound
save the sweet songs of the birds in the trees is the same spot
where, in the summer of 1863, so much life and action was seen
each day; and where, instead of the music of the birds, it was the
music of the whizzing minie-ball or the shrieking shell. In thought I
went back to those days of noise and blood, and I involuntarily
looked over to Fort Hill to see if the Confederate stronghold was still
there, and listened to hear the sharp crack of the sharpshooter’s rifle
from the trenches, but all is quiet and hushed. I am soothed by the
stillness, the quiet and peace that pervades these hills and ravines,
and I wander in memory’s hall of the long ago, when I am brought
back to the present by Captain Rigby, with: “Now, Crummer, you
must locate the position of the camp of your regiment during the
siege.” This I proceeded to do, having no difficulty, for the “Shirley
House” is still there, although tumbling down and going to ruin.
Thanks to the Illinois Commission, headed by Gen. John C. Black
and others, Congress has made an appropriation to have the
“Shirley House” restored to its former state. This house will be
remembered for its prominence during the siege as a place of
observation by general officers and as headquarters of the 45th
Illinois. Quite a number of officers and soldiers were shot in this
house by the Confederate sharpshooters.
I wandered through its ruins and you cannot imagine my feelings as I
stepped into the northwest room and stood on the identical spot
where on July 2, 1863, in the afternoon, while writing out an
ordinance report, a Confederate sharpshooter sent a minie-ball
through my right lung.
I placed marker 403 as the center of our camp and No. 484 marks
the right of the camp of the 45th Regiment. This done, we
approached Fort Hill on the Jackson road, and although the
entrenchments and forts have been generally leveled off for
agricultural purposes, changing the face of the hills, yet there is
enough left to show where the main lines were. No. 489 marks the
point where Major L. H. Cowen, 45th Illinois, was killed in the assault
on the afternoon of May 22, 1863. The charge was made by the
regiment, by right, in front. Major Cowen and myself were in the lead
and running together when he fell. Being Orderly Sergeant of Co. A,
it was my duty to be there.
No. 488 marks the center of the line of the 45th Illinois at the time of
its closest approach to the Confederate line in the assault of May 22,
1863.
While walking over this ground I remembered how close we hugged
that sloping hill, lying there in the scorching sun, with no chance to
return the withering fire of the enemy.
Captain Rigby then asked me if I could locate the “crater” and Gen.
Logan’s line of approach to it. I walked over the hill, groping my way
through the tall weeds and undergrowth, and, coming back to the
captain, reported, by saying, “I can.” “Good,” he said; “you may drive
the markers.” I then drove marker No. 487 at the center of the west
line of the crater made by the explosion under the 3rd Louisiana
Redan (we called it Fort Hill) June 25, 1863. It may be questioned
why I could be so certain about the location of the “crater,” in as
much as the fort had been completely demolished. My principal
reason is this: Sergeant Esping, of our regiment, who fell in the
“crater,” pierced by a ball through his brain, was by my side at the
time. We were together in the northwest corner of the “crater” and
we had a splendid chance of doing good work, by looking off down
the ridge to the right and northwest from the “crater,” and firing on
the Confederates in the trenches. Those old trenches where the
Confederates were on June 25, 1863, are still there, so in walking
over the hill and getting the right angle to those trenches, I was able
to locate the “crater.”
Markers Nos. 485 and 486 indicate the line of Logan’s sap, or
approach, to Fort Hill, commencing at the Jackson road. Captain
Rigby thanked me heartily for my services of the day.
The 45th Illinois Infantry bore an honorable part in the siege, as the
official records show.
The report of our Brigade Commander, Gen. M. B. Leggett,
published in the official records at Washington, under date of July 6,
1863, relative to the charge and fighting in the “crater,” is interesting
and tends to corroborate the writer’s statements.
* * * “At 3:30 p. m. of June 25, 1863, my command was in
readiness, the 45th Illinois being the first, supported by the
other regiments of the brigade and Lieut. H. C. Foster of
the 23rd Indiana, with 100 men, being placed in the left
hand sap, with orders to charge with the 45th Illinois,
provided they attempted to cross the enemy’s works. At
4:30 o’clock the mine was sprung and before the dirt and
smoke was cleared away the 45th Illinois had filled the
gap made by the explosion and were pouring deadly
volleys into the enemy. As soon as possible loop-hole
timber was placed upon the works for the sharpshooters,
but the enemy opened a piece of artillery at very close
range on that point and the splintering timbers killed and
 wounded more men than did balls, and I ordered the
timbers to be removed. Hand grenades were then freely
used by the enemy, which made sad havoc amongst my
men, for, being in the crater of the exploded mine, the
sides of which were covered by the men, scarcely a
grenade was thrown without doing damage, and in most
instances horribly mangling those they happened to strike.
The 45th Illinois, after holding the position and fighting
desperately until their guns were too hot for further use,
were relieved by the 20th Illinois. The 20th Illinois was
relieved by the 31st Illinois and they in turn by the 56th
Illinois, but, their ammunition being bad, they were unable
to hold the position and were relieved by the 23rd Indiana;
the 17th Iowa then relieving the 23rd Indiana, and the 31st
Illinois relieving them, held the position until daylight, when
the 45th Illinois relieved them and held the position until
10:00 a. m. of the 26th; the 124th Illinois then relieved the
45th Illinois and held the position until 5:00 p. m., when I
received orders to withdraw to the left hand gap, where I
maintained the position until the surrender on July 4th,
when, by order of Major General Logan, my brigade led by
the 45th Illinois, was honored with the privilege of being
the first to enter the garrison, and the flag of the 45th
Illinois the first to float over the conquered city.”
The National Park Commission are doing a noble work. Capt. Rigby
is the right man in the right place and with a corps of engineers is
working day and night to make a beautiful park for the delight of the
people that come after us. The state of Iowa has done the noble
thing in appropriating $150,000 to place monuments in the park on
the spot which the different Iowa regiments occupied during the
siege. The Illinois legislature has also made an appropriation of
$250,000 for monuments for the 78 different organizations engaged
in that memorable siege. When the memorial tablets from the
different states shall have been placed and the park fully laid out and
completed, it will be one of the notable historic battle fields of the
Union, and one which we of the North will occasionally visit with
great interest. And now I close my sketch with this prayer: that war
may never come to our fair land again, but that blessed peace,
prosperity and righteousness may ever be our heritage.
 GENERAL U. S. GRANT
From a photograph taken in Galena, Illinois, at the close of the
Civil War

GENERAL U. S. GRANT
CHAPTER XV.
AN APPRECIATION.
My closing chapter will be about our great commander, General
Ulysses S. Grant, giving a few personal incidents of his life.
Orators, authors and statesmen have spoken and written of the great
General so much it would seem as though there was nothing more
could be said. However, as one who followed him through numerous
battles during the Civil War, and who, at the close of the war,
became a resident of Galena, Ill., and became personally acquainted
with, and attended the same church as the General, I feel I have the
right to note down, before the bugle sounds taps, a few words of
appreciation of the man I knew.
For four years, just after the close of the war, I was in the employ of
Col W. R. Rowley, who was then Clerk of the Circuit Court of Jo
Daviess County, Ill., and who had been one of the close family staff
of General Grant during the early part of the war.
General John A. Rawlins and Colonel Rowley were neighbors of the
General before the war and knew him well and intimately, and it is
believed by the citizens of Galena, and known by many prominent
men in the army, that these two men had more to do in helping and
advising General Grant during the early part of the war, and, indeed,
all through the war, so far as General Rawlins is concerned, than any
of his Generals or friends in Congress or out of it.
Colonel Rowley and myself naturally had many conversations over
the incidents of certain battles and about General Grant.
During the war and after, the enemies of Grant circulated many
stories about his being drunk on this and that occasion.
If I wanted to stir Colonel Rowley up to a fighting mood, and hear
him use a “big, big D” (for he could use them occasionally), I would
ask him: “Colonel, how about this new yarn of Grant’s being drunk at
Shiloh when the battle commenced?” The question was the spark
that exploded the magazine of wrath and the Colonel would reply:
“All a d—d lie. Wasn’t I there with him all the time; don’t I know.
When will all the d—d liars get through telling their d—d lies about
Grant.” And then I would chuckle to myself and say: “Them’s my
sentiments, too.”
It has been said of General John A. Rawlins (chief of General
Grant’s staff), and, I believe, it must be true, for Colonel Rowley once
told me it was; that when Rawlins got mad he could use more “cuss
words” than any man in the army. General Grant never used “cuss
words,” but he loved these two men, notwithstanding their habit of
emphasizing their remarks sometimes with a big D.
Grant loved his friends and was always true to them. Grant wouldn’t
lie; even in small matters he insisted that the truth should be spoken.
It is related of him that, after he became President and while one day
he was busy with his cabinet, some one called to see the President.
One of the cabinet officers directed the servant to say to the caller
that the President was not in. “No,” said the General; “tell him no
such thing. I don’t lie myself and I don’t want my servants to lie for
me.”
A great man who was associated with him in public life has said of
him: “He was the most absolutely truthful man I ever met in all my
experiences.” Another man who knew him well said of General
Grant: “He hated two classes of men—liars and cowards.”
General Grant never aspired to political office, although urged by his
friends to do so. Just after the fall of Vicksburg some of the leading
citizens of Galena visited him at that place. One day, in a general
conversation, one of them asked what office he would like to have
after the war was over. He replied that there was one office he would
like to have when he returned to Galena. His friends pledged him
their best endeavors in aiding him for whatever he might seek, and,
being pressed to name the office, Grant said: “I would like to be
alderman from my ward long enough to have a sidewalk built to my
residence.” Of course, there was a laugh and the matter was
dropped. Upon his first visit to his old home at Galena, at the close of
the war, the little city of many hills got up a reception upon a grand
scale for its hero. The city was smothered with flags and
decorations; the streets arched with flags and words of welcome.
When the General arrived amid the booming of cannon and the
huzzas of the people, he was hurriedly lifted into a barouche and
started up the street at the head of a long procession. The first arch
he met had in large letters: “General, the sidewalk is built.” The
General laughed and remarked: “I see my friends remembered I
wanted to be alderman.”
After his first nomination for the Presidency he was with us at Galena
during the campaign, and had you seen the General moving around
so quietly and unostentatiously among his neighbors and friends,
you would have wondered that it could be the man who had just
been declared the greatest military hero of the age, and that he was
soon to be at the head of the nation.
His record as President for eight years, and the honored guest of all
nations during his tour around the world, is an open history to all.
Upon his return from his trip ’round the world, the General and family
took up their abode in Galena. The city again welcomed its hero to
his old home amid the plaudits of thousands that came from near
and far to tread its stony streets and pay their tribute of respect and
honor to the modest, silent man known the world over. I think the
General was more stirred to the heart with the kind tokens of love
and friendship and honor which his old neighbors and citizens of
Galena showered upon him than he was from all the attentions of
nobility the world ’round.
General Grant’s home life and his life among the people of Galena,
even after the world had acclaimed him the greatest General of the
ages, and honors had been showered upon him by the crowned
heads of the world, was that of a quiet, unobtrusive, simple life like
his neighbors and citizens.
We loved him as a neighbor and citizen. We said among ourselves:
“Grant’s head is the same size it was before the war.”
He has been called the “silent man.” Yes, he was rather guarded in
his talks among men generally, but I want to say (for I have listened
to him), that when among his friends and neighbors, if you could get
him started, he was one of the most entertaining talkers I ever
listened to.
During the month of June, 1880, while the Republican Convention
was in session in Chicago, General Grant and family were living in
Galena. He had held the Presidency two terms; he had also been
’round the world, feted and honored everywhere by kings and
emperors, and now he had returned to the hills of old Galena to
spend his days in rest and quiet; but his friends, who believed in him,
urged him to again stand for the nomination for the Presidency. His
friends of Galena, Ill., knew what his personal wishes were; he did
not wish to again resume the burdens of office. However, according
to the request of his family, especially his wife, and also to his
political friends, he finally consented to make the run. You will
remember what a fight there was in the convention—how the
immortal 300, led by Roscoe Conkling, clung to the silent hero to the
last.
While the Convention was in progress, each day the General came
down town about 10 o’clock and spent an hour or two with his old
friend and comrade, Colonel W. R. Rowley. Rowley was then Judge
of the County Court, and I was clerk of the same court. Some of the
friends were privileged to be there. I remember distinctly that all of us
were intensely interested in every telegram that came to the office,
but the General paid very little attention to them. He kept us
entertained with most vivid recitals of what he had seen and heard in
his travels ’round the world.
There was one man’s name before the Convention who had a few
votes as nominee for President. This man had been a trusted friend
of General Grant in former years, but his actions had caused many
of the General’s friends to doubt his friendship. One afternoon, while
we were in General Rowley’s office, a telegram came that convinced
Rowley and the friends that this man, while pretending undying
friendship for the General, was playing him false. Rowley and others
were outspoken in their denunciation of the course of this man who
had helped Grant in former years and who Grant had helped so
much in the past. The General was as calm and placid as though
everything was lovely, his only remark being: “He was my friend
when I needed friends, if I can’t trust him, I can’t trust anybody.” The
friend referred to was Hon. E. B. Washburne.
Hon. Roscoe Conkling said of General Grant: “Standing on the
highest eminence of human distinction, modest, firm, self poised,
having filled all lands with his renown, he has seen not only the high
born and the titled, but the poor and lowly in the uttermost parts of
the earth rise and uncover before him. The name of Grant shall
glitter a bright and imperishable star in the diadem of the Republic
when those who have tried to tarnish it are moldering in forgotten
graves and when their names and epitaphs have tarnished utterly.”
This is a noble tribute of one great man for another; but we, his
humble neighbors of Galena, Ill., who knew the General so well, love
to think of the home life of this great man. One characteristic of his
life is not generally known, and I make bold to set it down in type that
all the world may know it. General Grant was a lover of his wife all
through his married life. A little secret of the home life of this devoted
man was known among the women of Galena, for they would tell
their husbands what a lover General Grant was, and to prove it they
would tell us that the General laced his wife’s shoes for her.
While General Grant and Mrs. Grant were in Europe they paid a visit
to the tomb of Ferdinand and Isabella. The thought of the ashes of
the royal couple sleeping side by side through the centuries
appealed to the devoted husband, and, turning to his wife, he said:
“Julia, that is the way we should lie in death.” So, when the Great
General died they found a memorandum left by him as to his last
resting place. First, he preferred West Point above others, but for the
fact that his wife could not be placed beside him there. Second,
Galena, or some place in Illinois. Third, New York; hence it is that in
the beautiful tomb at Riverside, the resting place of the General,
there is room for the ashes of Mrs. Grant.
After General U. S. Grant had answered the last roll call at Mount
McGregor, in 1885, and the sad news came to his friends and
neighbors of his former home, among the hills of the quaint old city
of Galena, Ill., preparations were made to have a memorial service in
the Methodist Church, where he had worshiped before and after the
war. The church was draped in mourning. In front of the pulpit was a
stand of pure white flowers, with the initials, U. S. G., in purple
flowers.
The pew formerly occupied by the General when here was covered
with the United States flag, tastefully draped. The house was filled
with his friends and neighbors, and a feeling of personal loss was felt
by all. The services were simple but beautiful. Several of his
personal friends spoke feelingly of the Great General’s life, among
them the writer, and I am persuaded to close this appreciation by
quoting my tribute given in 1885, in Galena, upon that occasion:
“The years glide swiftly by, the gray hairs come creeping on, and we
boys of the army of twenty years ago are no longer boys, but men,
whose numbers lessen each day as the months roll by.”
Twenty-four years have passed since we donned the blue and
marched down the streets and off to war. The forms and faces and
events of those times at this distance seem unreal and shadowy, like
the remembrance of a dream, and yet today, in the midst of the great
sorrow that hangs over the land over the fall of our great chieftain,
we are again reminded of the waving flags and fluttering scarfs, the
inspiring strains of martial music, the shrill notes of fife and drum,
and the booming of cannon. We are today again reminded (for the
death of our hero brings to us vividly the past days in which he took
so great a part). I say, again are we reminded of the tears and
prayers and promises—the music of soft voices and gentle words,
the brave words spoken by mothers, sisters, sweethearts, the parting
words, the last good-bye. We cannot forget, nay, we live over again
the battles of Donelson, Shiloh, Corinth, Vicksburg and other
victorious battle fields following our hero, whose memory we are
tonight to cherish and revere.
“All these dear and sacred memories of those stirring times come
wafted to us today like the weird airs of an Æolian harp swept by
unknown winds, and the ear is touched, and through the brain, nerve
and soul, and our hearts beat in sympathy and unison.
“So, tonight, as a nation mourns the fall of the Great Commander, we
boys of the twenty-four years ago are more than privileged to add
our tears of sorrow as we follow in spirit our hero to his last resting
place.
“We boys loved him. Often he led us amidst the storm of shot and
shell and where death faced us on every hand; but we soon learned
that although it meant hard fighting to follow General Grant, yet it
always promised victory, and that gave us inspiration to fight harder.
“General Grant was a man of transcendent military ability. In the
book of fate it was written: ‘He shall be a chief and a captain.’ But
above all he was a manly and a pure man. He was tender and trusty
and true.
“‘The bravest are the tenderest,
The loving are the daring.’
“I always admired the humble side of his character. I think humility
was one of his finest traits; although feted and honored as no man of
this continent ever has been, he never for a moment showed any
signs of realizing his greatness, or evincing a desire to count the
honors conferred. Retiring in disposition, yet bold and brave to act
when necessity demanded it, I speak of him in loving memory. You
all knew him here in his former home, and who with him have
worshiped ofttimes in this church, and you all know that he was the
bravest of the brave and the truest of the true.
“‘His mein, his speech, were sweetly simple;
But when the matter matched his mighty mind,
Up rose the hero; on his piercing eye
Sat observation; on each glance of thought,
Decision followed.’
“As the day came, so duty appeared, and the brave old General took
it up and did it earnestly and well.
“How well great battles and campaigns were planned and fought;
how safely and wisely he guided the ship of state; how modestly he
received honors of the world from crowned heads; how gladly he
returned to the walks of a humble citizen; how bravely and patiently
he suffered through his terrible affliction—are they not all known to
us, and are they not written upon the pages of history for our
children’s children to read and study?
“Is it weak, that we who followed the ever-victorious flag of our great
Commander, and who with him stood in trying places against evil
and treason, should drop our tears upon the fallen form of him whom
we loved? Nay, but let them fall, they but speak in louder tones than
words can, of the love and regard we had for him, who, as the years
roll by, will be honored and extolled as one of the greatest of all
nations.
“Around the throne of the Eternal God must hover the spirit of such
as he who lived without ever having a selfish thought.
“The steadfast friend, the gallant soldier, the great Commander has
fallen asleep.
“Rest thee, friend, soldier, patriot,
Thy work is done.”
 TRANSCRIBER’S NOTES:
Obvious typographical errors have been corrected.
Inconsistencies in hyphenation have been
standardized.
Archaic or variant spelling has been retained.
*** END OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK WITH GRANT
AT FORT DONELSON, SHILOH AND VICKSBURG ***

Updated editions will replace the previous one—the old editions

will be renamed.

Creating the works from print editions not protected by U.S.

copyright law means that no one owns a United States copyright
in these works, so the Foundation (and you!) can copy and
distribute it in the United States without permission and without
paying copyright royalties. Special rules, set forth in the General
Terms of Use part of this license, apply to copying and
distributing Project Gutenberg™ electronic works to protect the
PROJECT GUTENBERG™ concept and trademark. Project
Gutenberg is a registered trademark, and may not be used if
you charge for an eBook, except by following the terms of the
trademark license, including paying royalties for use of the
Project Gutenberg trademark. If you do not charge anything for
copies of this eBook, complying with the trademark license is
very easy. You may use this eBook for nearly any purpose such
as creation of derivative works, reports, performances and
research. Project Gutenberg eBooks may be modified and
printed and given away—you may do practically ANYTHING in
the United States with eBooks not protected by U.S. copyright
law. Redistribution is subject to the trademark license, especially
commercial redistribution.

START: FULL LICENSE

THE FULL PROJECT GUTENBERG LICENSE
 PLEASE READ THIS BEFORE YOU DISTRIBUTE OR USE THIS WORK

To protect the Project Gutenberg™ mission of promoting the

free distribution of electronic works, by using or distributing this
work (or any other work associated in any way with the phrase
“Project Gutenberg”), you agree to comply with all the terms of
the Full Project Gutenberg™ License available with this file or
online at www.gutenberg.org/license.

Section 1. General Terms of Use and

Redistributing Project Gutenberg™
electronic works
1.A. By reading or using any part of this Project Gutenberg™
electronic work, you indicate that you have read, understand,
agree to and accept all the terms of this license and intellectual
property (trademark/copyright) agreement. If you do not agree to
abide by all the terms of this agreement, you must cease using
and return or destroy all copies of Project Gutenberg™
electronic works in your possession. If you paid a fee for
obtaining a copy of or access to a Project Gutenberg™
electronic work and you do not agree to be bound by the terms
of this agreement, you may obtain a refund from the person or
entity to whom you paid the fee as set forth in paragraph 1.E.8.

1.B. “Project Gutenberg” is a registered trademark. It may only

be used on or associated in any way with an electronic work by
people who agree to be bound by the terms of this agreement.
There are a few things that you can do with most Project
Gutenberg™ electronic works even without complying with the
full terms of this agreement. See paragraph 1.C below. There
are a lot of things you can do with Project Gutenberg™
electronic works if you follow the terms of this agreement and
help preserve free future access to Project Gutenberg™
electronic works. See paragraph 1.E below.
1.C. The Project Gutenberg Literary Archive Foundation (“the
Foundation” or PGLAF), owns a compilation copyright in the
collection of Project Gutenberg™ electronic works. Nearly all the
individual works in the collection are in the public domain in the
United States. If an individual work is unprotected by copyright
law in the United States and you are located in the United
States, we do not claim a right to prevent you from copying,
distributing, performing, displaying or creating derivative works
based on the work as long as all references to Project
Gutenberg are removed. Of course, we hope that you will
support the Project Gutenberg™ mission of promoting free
access to electronic works by freely sharing Project
Gutenberg™ works in compliance with the terms of this
agreement for keeping the Project Gutenberg™ name
associated with the work. You can easily comply with the terms
of this agreement by keeping this work in the same format with
its attached full Project Gutenberg™ License when you share it
without charge with others.

1.D. The copyright laws of the place where you are located also
govern what you can do with this work. Copyright laws in most
countries are in a constant state of change. If you are outside
the United States, check the laws of your country in addition to
the terms of this agreement before downloading, copying,
displaying, performing, distributing or creating derivative works
based on this work or any other Project Gutenberg™ work. The
Foundation makes no representations concerning the copyright
status of any work in any country other than the United States.

1.E. Unless you have removed all references to Project

Gutenberg:

1.E.1. The following sentence, with active links to, or other

immediate access to, the full Project Gutenberg™ License must
appear prominently whenever any copy of a Project
Gutenberg™ work (any work on which the phrase “Project
Gutenberg” appears, or with which the phrase “Project