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Contents
To the Teacher
Media and Supplements
Acknowledgments
To the Student
Chapter 0 What Is a Statistical Model?
0.1 Model Basics
0.2 A Four-Step Process
UNIT A Linear Regression
Chapter 1 Simple Linear Regression
1.1 The Simple Linear Regression Model
1.2 Conditions for a Simple Linear Model
1.3 Assessing Conditions
1.4 Transformations/Reexpressions
1.5 Outliers and Influential Points
Chapter 2 Inference for Simple Linear Regression
2.1 Inference for Regression Slope
2.2 Partitioning Variability—ANOVA
2.3 Regression and Correlation
2.4 Intervals for Predictions
2.5 Case Study: Butterfly Wings
Chapter 3 Multiple Regression
3.1 Multiple Linear Regression Model
3.2 Assessing a Multiple Regression Model
3.3 Comparing Two Regression Lines

8
 3.4 New Predictors from Old
3.5 Correlated Predictors
3.6 Testing Subsets of Predictors
3.7 Case Study: Predicting in Retail Clothing
Chapter 4 Additional Topics in Regression
4.1 Topic: Added Variable Plots
4.2 Topic: Techniques for Choosing Predictors
4.3 Topic: Cross-validation
4.4 Topic: Identifying Unusual Points in Regression
4.5 Topic: Coding Categorical Predictors
4.6 Topic: Randomization Test for a Relationship
4.7 Topic: Bootstrap for Regression

UNIT B Analysis of Variance

Chapter 5 One-way ANOVA and Randomized Experiments
5.1 Overview of ANOVA
5.2 The One-way Randomized Experiment and Its
Observational Sibling
5.3 Fitting the Model
5.4 Formal Inference: Assessing and Using the Model
5.5 How Big Is the Effect?: Confidence Intervals and Effect
Sizes
5.6 Using Plots to Help Choose a Scale for the Response
5.7 Multiple Comparisons and Fisher’s Least Significant
Difference
5.8 Case Study: Words with Friends

9
 Chapter 6 Blocking and Two-way ANOVA
6.1 Choose: RCB Design and Its Observational Relatives
6.2 Exploring Data from Block Designs
6.3 Fitting the Model for a Block Design
6.4 Assessing the Model for a Block Design
6.5 Using the Model for a Block Design
Chapter 7 ANOVA with Interaction and Factorial Designs
7.1 Interaction
7.2 Design: The Two-way Factorial Experiment
7.3 Exploring Two-way Data
7.4 Fitting a Two-way Balanced ANOVA Model
7.5 Assessing Fit: Do We Need a Transformation?
7.6 Using a Two-way ANOVA Model
Chapter 8 Additional Topics in Analysis of Variance
8.1 Topic: Levene’s Test for Homogeneity of Variances
8.2 Topic: Multiple Tests
8.3 Topic: Comparisons and Contrasts
8.4 Topic: Nonparametric Statistics
8.5 Topic: Randomization F-Test
8.6 Topic: Repeated Measures Designs and Datasets
8.7 Topic: ANOVA and Regression with Indicators
8.8 Topic: Analysis of Covariance

UNIT C Logistic Regression

Chapter 9 Logistic Regression
9.1 Choosing a Logistic Regression Model

10
 9.2 Logistic Regression and Odds Ratios
9.3 Assessing the Logistic Regression Model
9.4 Formal Inference: Tests and Intervals
Chapter 10 Multiple Logistic Regression
10.1 Overview
10.2 Choosing, Fitting, and Interpreting Models
10.3 Checking Conditions
10.4 Formal Inference: Tests and Intervals
10.5 Case Study: Attractiveness and Fidelity
Chapter 11 Additional Topics in Logistic Regression
11.1 Topic: Fitting the Logistic Regression Model
11.2 Topic: Assessing Logistic Regression Models
11.3 Topic: Randomization Tests for Logistic Regression
11.4 Topic: Analyzing Two-Way Tables with Logistic
Regression
11.5 Topic: Simpson’s Paradox

UNIT D Time Series Analysis

Chapter 12 Time Series Analysis
12.1 Functions of Time
12.2 Measuring Dependence on Past Values:
Autocorrelation
12.3 ARIMA Models
12.4 Case Study: Residual Oil
Answers to Selected Exercises
Notes and Data Sources

11
General Index
Dataset Index
Online Sections: More on Repeated Measures (available online
only at: www.macmillanlearning.com/stat22e)
8.9 Repeated Measures: Mixed Designs
8.10 Repeated Measures: Advanced Material
8.11 Randomization Testing for Repeated Measures

12
To the Teacher
“Please, sir, I want some more.”

— “Oliver Twist” in the novel Oliver Twist by Charles Dickens

This book introduces students to statistical modeling beyond what they

learn in an introductory course. We assume that students have
successfully completed a Stat 101 college course or an AP Statistics
course. Building on basic concepts and methods learned in that course,
we empower students to analyze richer datasets that include more
variables and address a broader range of research questions.

Guiding Principles
Principles that have guided the development of this book include:

Modeling as a unifying theme. Students will analyze many types

of data structures with a wide variety of purposes throughout this
course. These purposes include making predictions, understanding
relationships, and assessing differences. The data structures
include various numbers of variables and different kinds of
variables in both explanatory and response roles. The unifying
theme that connects all of these data structures and analysis
purposes is statistical modeling. The idea of constructing
statistical models is introduced at the very beginning, in a setting
that students encountered in their Stat 101 course. This modeling
focus continues throughout the course as students encounter new
and increasingly more complicated scenarios.
Basic principles of statistical modeling that apply in all
settings, such as the importance of checking model conditions by

13
analyzing residuals graphically and numerically, are emphasized
throughout. Although it’s not feasible in this course to prepare
students for all possible contingencies that they might encounter
when fitting models, we want students to recognize when a model
has substantial faults. Throughout the book, we offer two general
approaches for analyzing data when model conditions are not
satisfied: data transformations and computer-intensive methods
such as bootstrapping and randomization tests.

Students will go beyond their Stat 101 experience by learning

to develop and apply models with both quantitative and
categorical response variables, with both quantitative and
categorical explanatory variables, and with multiple explanatory
variables.

Modeling as an interactive process. Students will discover that

the practice of statistical modeling involves applying an
interactive process. We employ a four-step process in all statistical
modeling: Choose a form for the model, fit the model to the data,
assess how well the model describes the data, and use the model to
address the question of interest.
As students gain more and more facility with the interplay
between data and models, they will find that this modeling process
is not as linear as it might appear. They will learn how to apply
their developing judgment about statistical modeling. This
development of judgment and the growing realization that
statistical modeling is as much an art as a science are more ways
in which this second course is likely to differ from students’ Stat
101 experiences.

14
 Modeling of real, rich datasets. Students will encounter real and
rich datasets throughout this course. Analyzing and drawing
conclusions from real data are crucial for preparing students to use
statistical modeling in their professional lives. Using real data to
address genuine research questions also helps motivate students to
study statistics. The richness stems not only from interesting
contexts in a variety of disciplines, but also from the multivariable
nature of most datasets.
This multivariable dimension is an important aspect of how this
course builds on what students learned in Stat 101 and prepares
them to analyze data that they will see in our modern world that is
so permeated with data.

Prerequisites
We assume that students using this book have successfully completed
an introductory statistics course (Stat 101), including statistical
inference for comparing two proportions and for comparing two
means. No further prerequisites are needed to learn the material in this
book. Some material on data transformations and logistic regression
assumes that students are able to understand and work with exponential
and logarithmic functions.

Overlap with Stat 101

We recognize that Stat 101 courses differ with regard to coverage of
topics, so we expect that students come to this course with different
backgrounds and levels of experience. We also realize that having
studied material in Stat 101 does not ensure that students have
mastered or can readily use those ideas in a second course. To help all
students make a smooth transition to this course, we recommend

15
introducing the idea of statistical modeling while presenting some
material that students are likely to have studied in their first course.

Chapter 0 reminds students of basic statistical terminology and also

uses the familiar two-sample t-test as a way to illustrate the approach
of specifying, estimating, and testing a statistical model. Some topics
in the early regression chapters (e.g., inference for the slope of a
regression line) may be familiar to students from their first course. For
a class of students with strong backgrounds, you may choose to move
more quickly through the first chapters, treating that material mostly as
review to help students get “up to speed.”

Organization of Units/Chapters
After completing this course, students should be able to work with
statistical models where the response variable is either quantitative or
categorical and where explanatory/predictor variables are quantitative
or categorical (or with both kinds of predictors). Chapters are grouped
into units that consider models based on the type of response and type
of predictors.

The three main units (A, B, and C) each follow a similar structure.
The unit begins with a chapter dealing with the “simple” case with a
single predictor/factor. This helps students become familiar with the
basic ideas for that type of model (linear regression, analysis of
variance, or logistic regression) in a relatively straightforward setting
where graphical visualizations are most feasible. Later chapters of each
unit extend these ideas to models with multiple predictors/factors.

Finally, each unit concludes with a special chapter of “additional

16
topics” that extend ideas discussed earlier. The topics in these final
chapters are relatively independent. We don’t anticipate that you will
choose to cover all of these additional topics, but rather will pick and
choose the ones most appropriate for your course goals, and
incorporate them as needed as you move through the other material in
that unit.

Chapter 0: Introduction: We remind students about basic statistical

terminology and present our four-step process for constructing
statistical models in the context of a two-sample t-test.

Unit A (Chapters 1–4): Linear regression models. These four chapters

develop and examine statistical models for a quantitative response
variable, first with one quantitative predictor and then with multiple
predictors of both quantitative and categorical types.

Unit B (Chapters 5–8): Analysis of variance models. These four

chapters also consider models for a quantitative response variable, but
specifically with categorical explanatory variables/factors. We start
with a single factor (one-way ANOVA) and then move to models that
consider multiple factors and interactions. We also include elements of
experimental design that are important for choosing an appropriate
ANOVA model.

Unit C (Chapters 9–11): Logistic regression models. These three

chapters introduce models for a binary response variable with either
quantitative or categorical predictors.

Unit D (Chapter 12): Time series. This “unit” is a single chapter that
develops models (functions of time, seasonal, and ARIMA) that arise

17
from time series data.

Features of STAT2: Modeling with Regression

and ANOVA, Second Edition
Flexibility Within and Between Units
The units and chapters are arranged to promote flexibility regarding
order and depth in which topics are covered. Within a unit, some
instructors may choose to “splice” in an additional topic when related
ideas are first introduced. For example, Section 5.7 in the first ANOVA
chapter introduces techniques for conducting pairwise comparisons
with one-way ANOVA using Fisher’s LSD method. Instructors who
prefer a more thorough discussion of pairwise comparison issues at this
point, including alternate techniques such as the Bonferroni adjustment
or Tukey’s HSD method, can proceed to present those ideas from
Topic 8.2. Other instructors might want to move immediately to two-
way ANOVA in Chapter 6 and then study pairwise procedures later.

Instructors can also adjust the order of topics between the units. For
example, some might prefer to consider logistic regression models
(Unit C) before studying ANOVA models (Unit B). Others might
choose to study all three types of models in the “simple setting”
(Chapters 1–2, 5, 9), and then return to consider each type of model
with multiple predictors. One could also move to the ANOVA material
in Unit B directly after starting with a review of the two-sample t-test
for means in Chapter 0 and simple linear regression in Chapters 1 and
2.

Technology

18
 Modern statistical software is essential for doing statistical
modeling. We assume that students will use statistical software for
fitting and assessing the statistical models presented in this book. We
include output and graphs from both Minitab and R throughout the
book, but we do not include specific software commands or
instructions.

Our goal is to allow students to focus on understanding statistical

concepts, developing facility with statistical modeling, and interpreting
statistical output while reading the text. Toward these ends, we want to
avoid the distractions that often arise when discussing or implementing
specific software instructions. This choice allows instructors to use
other statistical software packages; e.g., SAS, SPSS (an IBM
company)*, DataDesk, JMP (developed by SAS), etc..

Exercises
Developing skills of statistical modeling requires considerable practice
working with real data. Homework exercises are an important
component of this book and appear at the end of each chapter. These
exercises are grouped into four categories:

Conceptual exercises. These questions are brief and require

minimal (if any) calculations. They give students practice with
applying basic terminology and assess students’ understanding of
concepts introduced in the chapter.

Guided exercises. These exercises ask students to perform various

stages of a modeling analysis process by providing specific
prompts for the individual steps.

Open-ended exercises. These exercises ask for more complete

19
 analyses and reporting of conclusions, without much or any step-
by-step direction.

Supplemental exercises. Topics for these exercises go somewhat

beyond the scope of the material covered in the chapter.

Exercises in the Additional Topics chapters (4, 8, and 11) are grouped
to align with the independent topics in those chapters.

*SPSS was acquired by IBM in October 2009

What’s New in the Second Edition

New Content and Organization
New statistical topics. Two topics that were requested most
consistently from first edition users were repeated measures designs
and time series. We have added new material (Topic 8.6) to give a
brief introduction to repeated measures designs, and for instructors
who want more depth in this topic we have included three more
sections (Topics 8.9–8.11) in the online material. We have also added
Chapter 12, giving a brief introduction to working with time series
data. In addition to these new sections and chapters, we have made
numerous changes to include new ideas (e.g., effect sizes) and give
more guidance to students (e.g., how to choose a transformation).

New organization. We reorganized the material in Unit B to better

integrate ideas of experimental design with the topics of ANOVA.
Chapter 6 now focuses on block designs and the additive ANOVA
model, with interaction coming in Chapter 7, and additional ANOVA
topics in Chapter 8.

20
 New exercises and examples. The second edition has 243 worked
examples and 646 exercises for students, increases of 76% and 63%
over the first edition. We have also updated and revised almost 100
examples and exercises that are carried over from the first edition.

New datasets. We have 64 new datasets dealing with real data,

many from research studies. We have also updated datasets from the
first edition to bring the total dataset count to 190. Datasets are
available in various formats for different software packages, and a data
index, which follows the general index, lists all datasets and where
they are used in the text.

New Pedagogical Features

Chapter opening section lists give an at-a-glance look at the content
therein.

Learning objectives outline goals and expectations that help

instructors create their syllabi and students understand where they’re
headed.

New, full-color design incorporates all-new figures, charts, and

graphs. In addition, important definitions and explanations are
highlighted for emphasis. Our goal in creating this design was to make
the reading and learning experience more approachable by instructors
and students alike.

Key terms are highlighted in the margins to help students build a solid
statistics vocabulary.

Caution icons and text signal common misconceptions and

21
important ideas to help the student avoid pitfalls and grasp key
concepts.

Data icons highlight the dataset in use for each example and
exercise.

22
Media and Supplements
Introducing SAPLINGPLUS for STAT2, Second
Edition!
The new second edition

of STAT2: Modeling with Regression and ANOVA is now in

SaplingPlus, an extraordinary new online resource providing the
richest, most completely integrated text/media learning experience yet.
SaplingPlus combines Macmillan’s powerful multimedia resources
with an integrated e-book.

Assets Integrated into SaplingPlus Include the Following:

Interactive e-book provides powerful study tools for students,

multimedia content, and easy customization for instructors.
Students can search, highlight, and bookmark specific
information, making it easier to study and access key content.

LearningCurve provides students and instructors with powerful

adaptive quizzing, a gamelike format, and instant feedback. The
quizzing system features questions tailored specifically to the text
and adapts to students’ responses, providing material at different
difficulty levels and topics based on student performance.

Data files are available in JMP, ASCII, Excel, TI, Minitab, SPSS,

23
 R, and CSV formats.

Student’s Solutions Manual (written by the STAT2 author team)

provides solutions to the odd-numbered exercises in the text.

R Companion Manual (written by the STAT2 author team)

provides students with a short introduction to R and the
commands necessary to accomplish the analyses presented in this
text. The manual is organized so that each chapter corresponds to
the equivalent chapter in the book. Many of the examples and
figures from the book are replicated in the companion.

Minitab Companion Manual (written by the STAT2 author team)

provides students with a short introduction to Minitab. There is
one chapter in the manual for each unit of the textbook.

STAT2, Second Edition Book Companion Website:

www.macmillanlearning.com/stat22e

Instructor access to the Companion website requires user registration

as an instructor and features all the open-access student web materials,
plus:

Instructor’s Guide (written by the STAT2 author team) provides

instructors with guidance for teaching from this text. Discussion
includes pros and cons of teaching topics in different orders,
pitfalls to watch out for, and which exercises can be assigned after
particular sections have been covered. The guide concludes with
several essays written by instructors, describing how they have
used this textbook in an appropriate STAT2 course. These essays
also include a collection of projects the instructors have used with
their classes.

24
Instructor’s Solutions Manual (written by the STAT2 author
team) provides solutions to every exercise in the text.

Test Bank (written by Marian Frazier, The College of

Wooster) provides instructors with questions tailored to each
chapter and unit of the text.

Lecture PowerPoint Slides (created by the STAT2 author

team) provide instructors with ready-made PowerPoint slides
for each section of the book.

Lecture PowerPoint Slides (R-version; created by the STAT2

author team) provide instructors with ready-made PowerPoint
slides for each section of the book, including the R code
necessary to accomplish the analysis in that section.

R Markdown files (created by the STAT2 author team)

provide instructors with all of the R code necessary for each
of the examples, as well as comments to help the user
understand the commands. There are R Markdown files for
each section of the text.

Image Slides contain all textbook figures and tables.

25
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