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INTRODUCTION TO

STATISTICAL
INVESTIGATIONS

Tintle Chance Cobb Rossman

Roy Swanson VanderStoep
PUBLISHER Laurie Rosatone
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This project has been and is being supported from the National Science Foundation Grant DUE-1140629 and Grant
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 ABOUT THE AUTHORS

B E T H L . C H A N C E is Professor of Statistics at California Polytechnic State Univer-

sity. She is co-author with Allan Rossman of the Workshop Statistics series and Investigat-
ing Statistical Concepts, Applications, and Methods. She has published articles on statistics
education in The American Statistician, Journal of Statistics Education, and the Statistics
Education Research Journal. She has also collaborated on several chapters and books aimed
at enhancing teacher preparation to teach statistics and has been involved for many years
with the Advanced Placement Statistics program. She is a Fellow of the American Statistical
Association and received the 2002 Waller Education Award for Excellence and Innovation
in Teaching Undergraduate Statistics. The Rossman/Chance collection of online applets for
exploring statistical concepts was awarded the 2009 CAUSEweb Resource of the Year Award
and a 2011 MERLOT Award for Exemplary Learning Materials.

G E O R G E W . C O B B is Robert L. Rooke Professor Emeritus of Statistics at Mount Holyoke

College and has extensive knowledge of statistics education, expertise in developing imag-
inative and innovative curricular materials, and the honor of having brought the conversa-
tion on randomization-based approaches in introductory statistics to the mainstream via his
2005 USCOTS presentation and 2007 paper. He served as the first chair of the Joint Commit-
tee on Undergraduate Statistics of the American Mathematical Association and American
Statistical Association (1991–98), editing that committee’s 1992 report, “Teaching Statistics.”
He served for three years on the National Research Council’s Committee on Applied and
Theoretical Statistics and recently served as vice-president of the American Statistical Asso-
ciation. He is a Fellow of the ASA and received the ASA’s Founders Award in 2007. He has
published/edited a number of books.

A L L A N J . R O S S M A N is Professor and Chair of the Statistics Department at California

Polytechnic State University. He earned a Ph.D. in Statistics from Carnegie Mellon Univer-
sity. He is co-author with Beth Chance of the Workshop Statistics series and Investigating
Statistical Concepts, Applications, and Methods, both of which adopt an active learning ap-
proach to learning introductory statistics. He served as Program Chair for the 2007 Joint
Statistical Meetings, as President of the International Association for Statistical Education
from 2007–2009, and as Chief Reader for the Advanced Placement program in Statistics
from 2009–2014. He is a Fellow of the American Statistical Association and received the
Mathematical Association of America’s Haimo Award for Distinguished College or Univer-
sity Teaching of Mathematics in 2010.

S O M A R O Y is Associate Professor of Statistics at California Polytechnic State University. She is

editor for Journal of Statistics Education and has presented talks related to the randomization-based
curriculum and student learning at national meetings. She writes and reviews assessment tasks
for the Illustrative Mathematics Project, an initiative to support adoption of the K-12 core
standards for statistics. She co-leads, with her colleagues at Cal Poly, a teacher-preparation
workshop for AP Statistics teachers. She also has an active research program in health statistics
involving undergraduates.

T O D D M . S W A N S O N is Associate Professor of Mathematics at Hope College. He is a

co-author of Precalculus: A Study of Functions and their Applications, Understanding Our
Quantitative World and Projects for Precalculus, which was an INPUT Award winner. He has
published articles in Journal of Statistics Education, Statistics Education Research Journal,
and Stats: The Magazine for Students of Statistics. He has presented at numerous national
meetings, workshops, and mini-courses about innovative ways to teach mathematics and
statistics that focus on guided-discovery methods and projects.
viii ABO UT T HE A UT H O R S

N A T H A N L . T I N T L E is Associate Professor of Statistics at Dordt College. He has led

efforts to develop and institutionalize randomization-based curricula at two institutions
(Hope College 2005–2011; Dordt 2011–present), and currently leads the curriculum devel-
opment project. He has been an invited panelist for a number of statistics education sessions
at national meetings, was recently a member of the Executive Committee of the Section of
Statistical Education of the ASA, received the 2013 Waller Education Award for teaching and
innovation in Introductory Statistics, and was a member of a national advisory committee
to the ASA President on training the next generation of statisticians. He has co-authored
several articles on student learning using the randomization curriculum, one of which re-
cently won an award for best paper of the year from the Journal of Statistics Education.

J I L L L . V A N D E R S T O E P is Adjunct Assistant Professor of Mathematics at Hope Col-

lege. She has participated in efforts to develop and implement randomization-based cur-
ricula at Hope College since 2005. She has presented on the curriculum and assessment
results at national conferences and has co-led workshops on introducing and implementing
the randomization-based curriculum. She has co-authored two articles looking at student
learning differences between randomization-based curriculum and traditional curriculum.
She has extensive experience in the evaluation of assessment data to drive curricular reform.
 P R E FA C E

This book leads students to learn about the process of conducting statistical investigations from
data collection, to exploring data, to statistical inference, to drawing appropriate conclusions. We
focus on genuine research studies, active learning, and effective use of technology. In particular,
we use simulation and randomization tests to introduce students to statistical inference, yield-
ing a strong conceptual foundation that bridges students to theory-based inference approaches,
which are presented throughout the book. This approach allows students to see the logic and
scope of inference in the first chapter and to cycle through these ideas, too often lost to intro-
ductory statistics students, repeatedly throughout the course. Our implementation follows the
GAISE1 recommendations endorsed by the American Statistical Association.

APP R OA CH
We adopt several distinctive features:

1. Spiral approach to statistical process. We introduce the six-step method of con-

ducting statistical investigations in the very first section (see Figure 1).

1. Ask a research
Research Hypothesis
question

2. Design a study
and collect data

3. Explore
the data

Logic of 4. Draw Significance

Inference inferences Estimation

Scope of 5. Formulate Generalization

Inference conclusions Causation

6. Look back
and ahead

FIGURE 1 The six-step statistical investigation method.

We introduce this process in its entirety beginning in the Preliminaries chapter. Then we
present a complete implementation in Chapter 1, involving research questions focused on
a process probability. This relatively simple scenario enables us to introduce students to the
fundamental concept of statistical significance, along with some issues related to collecting
data and drawing conclusions, early in the course.
Our goal is for students to begin to develop an understanding of important and challeng-
ing concepts such as p-value from the beginning, and then deepen their understanding as they
encounter such ideas repeatedly in new scenarios:
• Single binary variable (inference for a population proportion)
• Single quantitative variable
• Comparing a binary variable between two groups (inference for 2 × 2 table)
• Comparing a quantitative variable between two groups
1
http://www.amstat.org/education/gaise/
x PRE FAC E

• Comparing a categorical variable across multiple groups

• Comparing a quantitative variable across multiple groups
• Association between two quantitative variables
With each of these scenarios, students reconsider and apply the six-step statistical investi-
gation method. Students also revisit, at deeper and deeper levels each time, the core ideas of
statistical inference. They learn that the fundamental reasoning process of statistical infer-
ence remains the same in all scenarios that they study.

2. Randomization-based introduction to statistical inference. A randomization-based

approach to statistical inference is key to its successful early introduction. For every scenario
students encounter in this book, they first learn how to make inferences using simulations
of chance models. Then we introduce students to theory-based procedures for statistical
inference, based on the normal distribution and its derivatives, as an alternative approxi-
mation to the randomization-based methods. Some of the advantages for starting with the
randomization-based approach, as spelled out by Cobb (2007), include:
• More intuitive for students to understand
• Easily generalizable to other situations and statistics
• Takes advantage of modern computing
• Closer to what founders of statistical inference (e.g., R.A. Fisher) envisioned
3. Focus on logic and scope of inference. For virtually every study we present, we ask
students to consider two questions related to the logic of inference and two questions re-
lated to scope of inference:
• Are the study’s results unlikely to have arisen by chance alone, indicating that the differ-
ence between the observed data and the hypothesized model is statistically significant?
• How large do you estimate the difference/effect to be and how confident can you be in this estimate?
• To what group can the conclusion from the study reasonably be generalized?
• Can a cause/effect conclusion be legitimately drawn between the variables? (This applies
to studies involving at least two variables, starting in Chapter 4.)
The first pair of questions addresses the two key issues of statistical inference: significance and
confidence. Answering the second pair depends on examining how subjects were selected
for the study and how the groups were formed, determining whether random sampling or
random assignment (or both) was used.
4. Integration of exposition, examples, and explorations. Every section includes
at least one example that illustrates the ideas and methods presented, and at least one
exploration that students work through to learn about and gain experience with applying
the topic. We offer much flexibility for instructors to decide on the order in which they
present these components, and what they will ask students to do in class vs. outside of
class. To facilitate this flexibility, examples and explorations within a section are written so
that neither depends on the other, allowing the instructor to present either one first. The
only exception is in the Preliminaries, where there are two examples and one exploration,
each of which introduces new concepts. We make this exception to encourage instructors
to finish the Preliminaries in no more than two or three class periods, while still introducing
the text’s flexibility for use with both lecture-based and activity-based class periods.
5. Easy-to-use technology integrated throughout. Rather than ask students to learn to use
a statistical software package, we have designed easy-to-use web-applets that enable students to
conduct all of the simulations and perform all of the analyses presented in this book. Instruc-
tors may also ask students to use a commercial software package, but this is not required.
6. Real data from genuine studies. We utilize real data from genuine research studies
throughout the book. These studies are taken from a variety of fields of application and
popular culture. Each chapter also includes a detailed investigation and a research article,
giving students even more exposure to genuine applications of statistics.
 P RE FACE xi

C HANGES IN C ON TE N T S E Q UE N C I N G
Inference. This book puts inferential statistics at the heart of the curriculum. Thus, the
course starts with core concepts of inference immediately in the Preliminaries and Chapter 1
and continues focusing on ideas of inference throughout. We introduce students to funda-
mental ideas such as statistical significance and p-values in Chapter 1. We engage students
with thinking about these crucial, and challenging, issues from the very start of the course,
setting the stage for revisiting these core concepts repeatedly in new settings throughout the
course. With this spiraling approach we expect students to deepen their understanding of
the inferential process each time it is revisited.

Descriptive statistics. We take a case-study approach that focuses on the statistical

investigation process as a whole. Thus, descriptive statistics are integrated throughout this
curriculum. The curriculum cycles through different types of data and numbers of variables
in each chapter, so students are introduced to basic descriptive methods as they are neces-
sary for analysis. By the end of the course, the content covered is very similar to a traditional
course, but the content has been introduced in context through genuine applications.

Probability. Students see probability concepts in this book, but in a way that differs
substantially from how probability is taught in the traditional curriculum. Specifically,
we expect students to explore notions of probability through tactile and computer-based
simulations. Students use chance models to obtain approximate sampling and randomiza-
tion distributions of statistics. These concepts are seen throughout the curriculum, and are
closely tied to specific research studies, instead of covered in only one or two chapters with
“probability” in the chapter title. Our approach requires no formal training in probability
theory or rules. Initially, we choose examples where the simulation procedure is natural
and intuitive to students, such as coin flipping. Later we explain how normal-based meth-
ods connect to these simulations and randomization tests. At that point, because students
already understand the logic of inference, normal-based tests are presented as the long-run
behavior of the simulation under certain conditions. With this approach, students can grasp
normal-based tests without getting bogged down in the technical cogs of the procedures.

C HANGES IN PE DAGOGY
Active learning. We have also substantially changed the pedagogical approach from pas-
sive (e.g., listening to lectures) to active learning, which engages the full range of students’
senses. Each chapter contains a number of explorations for the students to complete, in
addition to example-driven exposition of concepts. These materials allow for a variety of
instructor-determined approaches to content delivery including approaches where exam-
ples/concepts are presented first by the instructor, then explored by the student or vice versa.

Explorations. Student explorations involve a variety of tactile learning experiences like

shuffling decks of cards and flipping coins to estimate their own p-values, using computer
based simulations, using web-applets, collecting data, running experiments, and (poten-
tially) using computer software to help interpret results. The majority of explorations are
flexibly designed to be completed by students working individually, in small or large groups,
either inside or outside of class.

Examples and FAQs. Concepts are introduced using compelling examples explained in an
easy-to-understand manner that limits technical jargon and focuses on conceptual understand-
ing. In addition to this, we have included icons directing students to Frequently Asked Questions
on the Book Companion Site. These “dialogues help students understand difficult concepts and
answer some of their common questions. We have also included Key Idea and Think About It
boxes to help students understand what they read, identify core concepts, and be engaged readers.
Overall, we advocate utilizing a small amount of instructor-led interactive lecture and discussion,
but mainly focusing on engaging and strengthening different student learning processes by way
of a variety of active, self-discovery learning experiences for students.
xii P REFAC E

Exercises and Investigations. Each chapter contains an extensive set of exercises. Almost
all of these are based on real studies and real data. We also include an investigation in each
chapter, an in-depth exercise exploring the entire six-step statistical investigation method so that
the single assignment can assess a variety of concepts. Each chapter also contains icons direct-
ing students to online Research Article exercises on the Book Companion Site. These exercises
challenge students to develop their critical reading skills by having them read a research article
and then answer a series of questions about the article. (Note some articles are freely accessible to
anyone online, while others require a school/library subscription to access; the Research Article
Guide on the Book Companion Site notes the status of each article.)

Real data. The GAISE recommendations argue that statistics courses should make use
of real data. We go a step further and argue that statistics courses should use real data that
matter. Statistics should be viewed less as a course in which students see “cute” but impracti-
cal illustrations of statistics in use, and more about examples where statistics is used to make
decisions that have health, monetary, or other implications impacting hundreds, thousands,
or millions of people. Our approach has two-fold benefits, first in improving students’ statis-
tical literacy and second by helping students to recognize that statistics is the indispensable,
inter-disciplinary language of scientific research.

RE SOU R C E S
Resources for students and instructors. The Book Companion Site (www.wiley.com/
college/tintle) contains the following:
• Videos Comprehensive series of approximately 200 author videos. Icons in the text indi-
cate where videos are most helpful.
• Data sets Data sets tied to examples, exercises, explorations, and investigations.
• Applets Easy-to-use web applets created by the authors.
• FAQs Dialogues between student and instructor that help students understand difficult
concepts and answer some of their common questions.
• Research Article exercises and Research Article guide Tied to each chapter, Re-
search Article exercises challenge students to develop their critical reading skills by read-
ing a research article and then answering a series of questions about the article.
Explorations and Investigations Workbook (ISBN 978-1-119-12467-2) All explorations
and investigations in the text are collected into a workbook with space for student answers
in an assignable, collectible format.
WileyPLUS Learning Space WileyPLUS Learning Space is an easy way for students to
learn, collaborate, and grow. Through a personalized experience, students create their own
study guide while they interact with course content and work on learning activities.
WileyPLUS Learning Space combines adaptive learning functionality with a dynamic
new e-textbook experience for your course—giving you tools to quickly organize learning
activities, manage student collaboration, and customize your course.
You can:
• Assign activities and add your own materials
• Guide students through what’s important in the e-textbook by easily assigning specific content
• Set up and monitor collaborative learning groups
• Assess student engagement
• Benefit from a sophisticated set of reporting and diagnostic tools that give greater insight
into class activity
Resources for instructors. Instructor’s Solutions Manual (978-1-119-19511-5) with solutions
to all exercises.
 TO THE STUDENT

We know from decades of experience as teachers of statistics that many students never mas-
ter the most important but hardest ideas of our subject in their first course. Partly, that’s just
because the ideas are truly difficult. Partly it’s because learning the formulas of statistics often
gets in the way of learning the ideas of statistics. And partly it’s because the hardest and most
important ideas are too often saved for the end of the course, when time is running short.
This intro stat book is different. We show you the most important ideas up front, even
though we know they are challenging. We downplay formulas, especially at the start, in order
to put the ideas first. This approach asks more of you up front, but we have become convinced
from our own classes that, in the long run, this approach will pay off for you, the reader. Stu-
dents leave our classes better prepared to use statistical thinking in their science, social science,
and business courses, and in their careers after graduation.
At the same time, we also recognize that this approach may put you in an uncomfortable
position. We are asking you at the beginning of the term to start working at understanding
ideas that may take several weeks of thinking, effort, and practice to become clear. Many of
the most important ideas in all subjects are like that. What we ask of you is continued effort
and patience. In return, we offer our understanding that some of the goals we have set for you
cannot be achieved in just a week or two or three.
 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This project, which has encompassed many years, has ben-
efitted from input from many individuals and groups.
First, we thank the National Science Foundation for two
grants (DUE 1140629 and DUE 1323210) that have supported
the development and evaluation of this curriculum. We also ap-
preciate funding received to support initial development from
the Howard Hughes Medical Institute Undergraduate Science
Education Program, the Great Lakes College Association Path-
ways to Learning Collegium, and the Teagle Foundation.
This book has improved considerably based on very
helpful suggestions from class testers who have implemented
earlier drafts:
• Karl Beres, Ripon College
• Erin Blankenship, University of Nebraska, Lincoln
• Ruth Carver, Germantown Academy
• Julie Clark, Hollins University
• Linda Brant Collins, University of Chicago
• Lacey Echols, Butler University
• Kim Gilbert, University of Georgia
• Julia Guggenheimer, Greenwich Academy
• Allen Hibbard, Central College
• Chester Ismay, Ripon College
• Gary Kader, Appalachian State University
• Lisa Kay, Eastern Kentucky University
• Dave Klanderman, Trinity Christian College
• John Knoester, Holland Christian High School
• Henry Kramer, Unity Christian High School
• Tom Linton, Central College
• Mark A. Mills, Central College
• Ron Palcic, Johnson County Community College
• Bob Peterson, Mona Shores High School
• Betsi Roelofs, Holland Christian High School
• Scott Rifkin, University of California, San Diego
• Laura Schultz, Rowan University
• Sean Simpson, Westchester Community College
• Michelle Wittler, Ripon College
We also thank our departmental colleagues at Dordt Col-
lege, Hope College, and Cal Poly who have used earlier ver-
sions with their students and provided valuable feedback:
• Airat Bekmetjev, Hope College
• Aaron Cinzori, Hope College
• Dyana Harrelson, Hope College
• Vicki-Lynn Holmes, Hope College
• Karen McGaughey, Cal Poly San Luis Obispo
• Mary Nienhuis, Hope College
• Kevin Ross, Cal Poly San Luis Obispo
• Paul Pearson, Hope College
• Brian Yurk, Hope College
• Valorie Zonefeld, Dordt College
We also benefited greatly from reviewers of the text:
Ali Arab, Georgetown University
Audrey Brock, Eastern Kentucky University
Stephanie Casey, Eastern Michigan University
Seo-eun Choi, Arkansas State University
Kathy Chu, Eastern Michigan University
Julie Clark, Hollins University
K. B. Boomer, Bucknell University
Bob Dobrow, Carleton College
Jay Emerson, Yale University
John Emerson, Middlebury College
Michael Ernst, St. Cloud State University
Larry Feldman, Indiana University of Pennsylvania
Brian Garant, Prairie State College
Chi Giang, Westchester Community College
Carla L. Hill, Marist College
Tisha Hooks, Winona State University
Gary Kader, Appalachian State University
Lisa Kay, Eastern Kentucky University
Amy Kimbrough, Virginia Commonwealth University
Tom Linton, Central College
Chris Malone, Winona State University
Mark A. Mills, Central College
Tony Ng, Southern Methodist University
Eric Nordmoe, Kalamazoo College
Ron Palcic, Johnson County Community College
Scott Rifkin, University of California, San Diego
Douglas Ruvolo, University of Akron
Jose Sanqui, Appalachian State University
Sean Simpson, Westchester Community College
Jill Thomley, Appalachian State University
We also received valuable help from students Virginia Burroughs,
Andrea Eddy, Kayla Lankheet, Brooke Quisenberry, Kyliee
Topliff, and Jimmy Wong. Ann Cannon provided invaluable
assistance as an accuracy checker. The entire Wiley team, but
especially Joanna Dingle, Ken Santor, and Anne Scanlan-Rohrer,
were vital in helping us bring our vision to reality.
Finally, and most importantly, we thank all of our
students who have studied with this curriculum as it has
evolved. Our students have inspired us to develop curric-
ulum materials and provide a learning environment to sup-
port them in the important goal of learning statistical ideas
and methods.
CONTENTS

PRELIMINARIES CHAPTER 3
Introduction to Statistical Estimation: How Large Is the Effect? 163
Investigations 1
SECTION 3.1 Statistical Inference: Confidence
SECTION P.1 Introduction to the Six-Step Method 2 Intervals 164

SECTION P.2 Exploring Data 6 SECTION 3.2 2SD and Theory-Based Confidence
Intervals for a Single Proportion 173
SECTION P.3 Exploring Random Processes 10
SECTION 3.3 2SD and Theory-Based Confidence
Intervals for a Single Mean 181
SECTION 3.4 Factors that Affect the Width of a
UNIT 1
Confidence Interval 187

FOUR PILLARS OF INFERENCE: SECTION 3.5: Cautions When Conducting Inference 194

STRENGTH, SIZE, BREADTH,

AND CAUSE 21
CHAPTER 4
Causation: Can We Say What Caused
the Effect? 231
CHAPTER 1
SECTION 4.1 Association and Confounding 232
Significance: How Strong Is the
SECTION 4.2 Observational Studies versus
Evidence? 22
Experiments 237
SECTION 1.1 Introduction to Chance Models 23
SECTION 1.2 Measuring the Strength of Evidence 35
SECTION 1.3 Alternative Measure of Strength of UNIT 2
Evidence 46
COMPARING TWO GROUPS 259
SECTION 1.4 What Impacts Strength of Evidence? 53
SECTION 1.5 Inference for a Single Proportion:
Theory-Based Approach 63
CHAPTER 5
Comparing Two Proportions 260
CHAPTER 2
SECTION 5.1 Comparing Two Groups: Categorical
Generalization: How Broadly Do the
Response 261
Results Apply? 102
SECTION 5.2 Comparing Two Proportions:
SECTION 2.1 Sampling from a Finite Population 103 Simulation-Based Approach 267

SECTION 2.2 Inference for a Single Quantitative SECTION 5.3 Comparing Two Proportions:
Variable 120 Theory-Based Approach 283

SECTION 2.3 Errors and Significance 138

xvi C ONT EN T S

CHAPTER 6 CHAPTER 9
Comparing Two Means 323 Comparing More Than Two Means 475

SECTION 6.1 Comparing Two Groups: Quantitative SECTION 9.1 Comparing Multiple Means:
Response 324 Simulation-Based Approach 476
SECTION 6.2 Comparing Two Means: Simulation-Based SECTION 9.2 Comparing Multiple Means: Theory-Based
Approach 331 Approach 485
SECTION 6.3 Comparing Two Means: Theory-Based
Approach 346
CHAPTER 10
Two Quantitative Variables 520
CHAPTER 7
SECTION 10.1 Two Quantitative Variables: Scatterplots
Paired Data: One Quantitative
and Correlation 521
Variable 382
SECTION 10.2 Inference for the Correlation Coefficient:
SECTION 7.1 Paired Designs 383 Simulation-Based Approach 529

SECTION 7.2 Analyzing Paired Data: Simulation-Based SECTION 10.3 Least Squares Regression 538
Approach 388 SECTION 10.4 Inference for the Regression Slope:
SECTION 7.3 Analyzing Paired Data: Theory-Based Simulation-Based Approach 547
Approach 399 SECTION 10.5 Inference for the Regression Slope:
Theory-Based Approach 552

UNIT 3
APPENDIX A
ANALYZING MORE GENERAL
Calculation Details 592
SITUATIONS 427

APPENDIX B
CHAPTER 8
Stratified and Cluster Samples 610
Comparing More Than Two
Proportions 429
SECTION 8.1 Comparing Multiple Proportions:
Simulation-Based Approach 430 ANSWERS TO SELECTED EXERCISES 615
SECTION 8.2 Comparing Multiple Proportions:
Theory-Based Approach 440 INDEX 668
 PRELIMINARIES

Comparing
IntroductionMore
to Than
Two Proportions
Statistical Investigations

C H AP T E R O VER VI EW

Have you ever heard statements like these?

• “Don’t get your child vaccinated. I vaccinated my child and now he is autistic.”
• “I will never start jogging because my friend’s dad jogged his whole life but he died at age
46 of a heart attack.”
• “Teenagers shouldn’t be allowed to drive. Everyone knows they are too easily distracted.”
The people making these statements are using
anecdotal evidence (personal observations or strik-
ing examples) to support broad conclusions. The first
person concludes that vaccinations cause autism,
based solely on her own child. The second concludes
that running is too risky and could lead to heart attacks,
based entirely on the experience of one acquaintance.
The third uses hearsay to draw a broad conclusion.
Scientific conclusions should not be based on anec-
dotal evidence or single observations. Science requires
evidence from a well-collected data set. Statistics is the
science of producing useful data to address a research
question, analyzing the resulting data, and drawing
appropriate conclusions from the data.
For example, suppose you are running for a stu-
dent government office and have two different campaign
slogans in mind. You’re curious about whether your fel-
low students would react more positively to one slogan
Edward Fielding /Shutterstock

than the other. Would you ask only for your roommate’s
opinion or several of your friends? Or could you conduct
a more systematic study? What might that look like? The
study of Statistics will help you see how to design and
carry out such a study, and you will see how Statistics
can also help to answer many important research ques-
tions from a wide variety of fields of application.
1
2 P R E L IM INARIE S Introduction to Statistical Investigations

S EC T ION P.1 INTRODUC T I O N T O T H E S I X - S T E P M E T H O D

In this section, we will highlight the six steps of a statistical investigation through an example.
These six steps are a framework for all statistical investigations and are something you will see
throughout this book. We will also use this section to introduce and define some key terms.

P.1 Organ Donations

Even though organ donations save lives, recruiting organ donors is difficult. Interestingly, sur-
veys show that about 85% of Americans approve of organ donations in principle and many
states offer a simple organ donor registration process when people apply for a driver’s license.
EXAMPLE

Example P.1
However, only about 38% of licensed drivers in the United States are registered to be organ
donors. Some people prefer not to make an active decision about organ donation because the
topic can be unpleasant to think about. But perhaps phrasing the question differently could
affect people’s willingness to become a donor.
Johnson and Goldstein (2003) recruited 161 participants for a study, published in the
journal Science, to address the question of organ donor recruitment. The participants were
asked to imagine they have moved to a new state and are applying for a driver’s license. As
part of this application, the participants were to decide whether or not to become an organ
donor. Participants were presented with one of three different default choices:

• Some of the participants were forced to make a choice of becoming a donor or not, with-
out being given a default option (the “neutral” group).
• Other participants were told that the default option was not to be a donor but that they
could choose to become a donor if they wished (the “opt-in” group).
• The remaining participants were told that the default option was to be a donor but that
they could choose not to become a donor if they wished (the “opt-out” group).

What did the researchers find? Those given the “opt-in” strategy were much less likely to
agree to become donors. Consequently, policy makers have argued that we should employ an
“opt-out” strategy instead. Individuals can still choose not to donate but would have to more
actively do so rather than accept the default. Based on their results, Johnson and Goldstein
stated that their data “suggest changes in defaults could increase donations in the United
States of additional thousands of donors a year.” In fact, as of 2010, 24 European countries
had some form of the opt-out system—which some call “presumed consent”—with Spain,
Austria, and Belgium yielding high donor rates.
Why were Johnson and Goldstein able to make such a strong recommendation? Be-
cause rather than relying on their own opinions or on anecdotal evidence, they conducted a
carefully planned study of the issue using sound principles of science and statistics. These
principles can be summarized as the six steps of a statistical investigation, which is in line
with the scientific method.

SI X S T E PS OF A STATI STI C AL I N VE STI GATI ON

• Step 1: Ask a research question that can be addressed by collecting data. These ques-
tions often involve comparing groups, asking whether something affects something else,
or assessing people’s opinions.
• Step 2: Design a study and collect data. This step involves selecting the people or ob-
jects to be studied, deciding how to gather relevant data on them, and carrying out this
data collection in a careful, systematic manner.
• Step 3: Explore the data, looking for patterns related to your research question as well
as unexpected outcomes that might point to additional questions to pursue.
 S EC T IO N P.1: Introduction to the Six-Step Method 3

• Step 4: Draw inferences beyond the data by determining whether any findings in your
data reflect a genuine tendency and estimating the size of that tendency.
• Step 5: Formulate conclusions that consider the scope of the inference made in Step 4.
To what underlying process or larger group can these conclusions be generalized? Is a
cause-and-effect conclusion warranted?
• Step 6: Look back and ahead to point out limitations of the study and suggest new
studies that could be performed to build on the findings of the study.

Let’s see how the organ donation study followed these steps. P.1.1

STEP 1: Ask a research question. The general question here is whether a method can be
found to increase the likelihood that a person agrees to become an organ donor. This question
was then sharpened into a more focused one: Does the default option presented to driver’s
license applicants influence the likelihood of someone becoming an organ donor?

STEP 2: Design a study and collect data. The researchers decided to recruit various
participants and ask them to pretend to apply for a new driver’s license. The participants
did not know in advance that different options were given for the donor question or even
that this issue was the main focus of the study. These researchers recruited participants
for their study through various general interest discussion forums on the internet. They
offered an incentive of $4.00 for completing an online survey. After the results were col-
lected, the researchers removed data arising from multiple responses from the same IP
address, surveys completed in less than five seconds, and respondents whose residential
address could not be verified.

STEP 3: Explore the data. The results of this study were:

The results of this study were 78.6% agreeing to become donors in the neutral group, 41.8%
for the opt-in group, and 82.0% for the opt-out group. The Science article displayed a graph
of these data similar to Figure P.1.

100
Not
Donor Not
80 Not
Percentage

60

Not
40
Donor

Donor

Donor

20

0
Opt-in Opt-out Neutral
Default
FIGURE P.1 Percentages for organ donation study.

These results indicate that the neutral version of the question, forcing participants to make
a choice, and the opt-out option (default organ donor) produced a higher percentage who
agreed to become donors than the opt-in option (default not organ donor).

STEP 4: Draw inferences beyond the data. Using methods that you will learn in this
course, the researchers analyzed whether the observed differences between the groups were
large enough to indicate that the default option had a genuine effect and then estimated the
size of that effect. In particular, this study reported strong evidence that the neutral and opt-
out versions generally lead to a higher chance of agreeing to become a donor, as compared to
4 P R E L IM INARIE S Introduction to Statistical Investigations

the opt-in version currently used in many states. In fact, they could be quite confident that the
neutral version increases the chances that a person agrees to become a donor by between
20 and 54 percentage points, a difference large enough to save thousands of lives per year in
the United States.

STEP 5: Formulate conclusions. Furthermore, as we will also discuss later in the book,
based on the analysis of the data and the design of the study, it is reasonable for these re-
searchers to conclude that the neutral version causes an increase in the proportion who will
agree to become donors. But because the participants in the study were volunteers recruited
from internet discussion forums, generalizing conclusions beyond these participants is only
legitimate if they are representative of a larger group of people.

STEP 6: Look back and ahead. The organ donation study provides strong evidence that
the neutral or opt-out wording could be helpful for improving organ donation proportions. One
limitation of the study is that participants were asked to imagine how they would respond,
which might not mirror how people would actually respond in such a situation. A new study
might look at people’s actual responses to questions about organ donation or could monitor
donor rates for states that adopt a new policy. Researchers could also examine whether
presenting educational material on organ donation might increase people’s willingness to do-
nate. Another improvement would be to include participants from wider demographic groups
than these volunteers.

Part of looking back also considers how an individual study relates to similar studies
that have been conducted previously. Johnson and Goldstein compare their study to two
others: one by Gimbel et al. (2003) that found similar results with European countries and
one by Caplan (1994) that did not find large differences in the three proportions agreeing
to donate.
Figure P.2 displays the six steps of a statistical investigation that we have identified.

1. Ask a research
Research Hypothesis
question

2. Design a study
and collect data

3. Explore
the data

Logic of 4. Draw Significance

Inference inferences Estimation

Scope of 5. Formulate Generalization

Inference conclusions Causation

6. Look back
and ahead

FIGURE P.2 Six steps of a statistical investigation.

F OUR PI L L A R S OF STATI STI C AL I N F E R E N C E

Notice from Figure P.2 that Step 4 can be considered as the logic of statistical inference
and Step 5 as the scope of statistical inference. Furthermore, each of these two steps
involves two components. The following questions comprise the four pillars of statistical
inference:
 S EC T IO N P.1: Introduction to the Six-Step Method 5

1. Significance: How strong is the evidence of an effect?

You will learn how to provide a measure of the strength of the evidence provided by the
data. For example, how strong is the evidence that the neutral and opt-out versions
increase the chance of agreeing to become an organ donor, as compared to the opt-in
version?
2. Estimation: What is the size of the effect?
You will learn how to estimate how different two groups are. For example, how much
larger (if at all) are the chances someone agrees to donate organs when asked with the
neutral version instead of the opt-in version?
3. Generalization: How broadly do the conclusions apply?
You will learn to consider what larger group of individuals you believe your conclusions can
be applied to. For example, what are the characteristics of the individuals who participated
in the organ donation study, and how are they similar or different than typical drivers?
4. Causation: Can we say what caused the observed difference?
You will learn whether you can legitimately identify what caused the observed difference.
For example, can you conclude that the way the researchers asked the organ donation
question was the cause of the observed differences in proportions of donors?

These four pillars are so important that they should be addressed in virtually all statis-
tical studies. Chapters 1–4 of this book will be devoted to introducing and exploring these P.1.2
four pillars of inference. To begin our study of the six steps of statistical investigation, we now
introduce some basic terminology that will be used throughout the text.

Basic terminology

Before we go any further let’s introduce you to a few basic terms that we will use throughout
the book.
• Data can be thought of as the values measured or categories recorded on individual enti-
ties of interest.
• These individual entities on which data are recorded will be called observational units. P.1.3
• The recorded characteristics of the observational units are the variables of interest.
• Some variables are quantitative, taking numerical values on which ordinary arith-
metic operations make sense. For example, height, number of siblings, and age are P.1.4
quantitative variables.
• Other variables are categorical, taking category designations. For example, eye
color, marital status, and whether or not you voted in the last election are categori-
cal variables.
• The distribution of a variable describes the pattern of value/category outcomes.
In the organ donation study, the observational units are the participants in the study.
The two variables recorded on these participants are (1) the version of the question that the
participant received and (2) whether or not the participant agreed to become an organ donor.
Both of these are categorical variables. The graph in Figure P.1 displays the distributions of the
donation variable for each default option category.
The observational units in a study are not always people. For example, you might
take the Reese’s Pieces candies in a small bag as your observational units, on which you
could record variables such as the color (a categorical variable) and weight (a quantitative
variable) of each individual candy. Or you might take all of the Major League Baseball
games being played in one week as your observational units, on which you could record
6 P R E L IM INARIE S Introduction to Statistical Investigations

data on variables such as the total number of runs scored, whether the home team wins the
game, and the attendance at the game.

THINK ABOUT IT
For each of the three variables just mentioned (about Major League Baseball games),
identify the type of variable: categorical or quantitative.

The total number of runs scored and attendance at the game are quantitative variables.
Whether or not the home team won the game is a categorical variable.

THINK ABOUT IT
Identify the observational units and variable for a recent study (Ackerman, Griskevicius,
and Li, 2011) that investigated this research question: Among heterosexual couples in a
committed romantic relationship, are men more likely than women to say “I love you” first?

The observational units in this study are the heterosexual couples, and the variable is
whether the man or the woman was the first to say “I love you.”

S EC T ION P. 2 EX P L ORING D ATA

In this section, you will look more closely at Step 3 of the six-step statistical investigation
method which concerns exploring data to help answer interesting questions and to help
make informed decisions. In Example P.2, you will encounter data arising from a natural
“data-generating” process that repeats the same “random event” many, many times, which
allows us to see a pattern (distribution) in the resulting data.

P.2 Old Faithful

Millions of people from around the world flock to Yellowstone Park in order to watch eruptions
of the Old Faithful geyser. But, just how faithful is this geyser? How predictable is it? How
long does a person usually have to wait between erup-
EXAMPLE

Example P.2
tions? Suppose the park ranger gives you a prediction for
the next eruption time, and then that eruption occurs five
minutes after that predicted time. Would you conclude
that predictions by the Park Service are not very accurate?
We hope not, because that would be using anecdotal evi-
dence. To investigate these questions about the reliability
of Old Faithful, it is much better to collect data.
(A live webcam of Old Faithful and surrounding
Edward Fielding /Shutterstock

geysers is available at: http://www.nps.gov/features/yell/

webcam/oldFaithfulStreaming.html.)
Researchers collected data on 222 eruptions of Old
Faithful taken over a number of days in August 1978
and August 1979. Figure P.3 contains a graph (called a
dotplot) displaying the times until the next eruption (in
minutes) for these 222 eruptions. Each dot on the dotplot
represents a single eruption.
 S EC T IO N P. 2 : Exploring Data 7

40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
Time until next eruption (min)
FIGURE P.3 Times between eruptions of Old Faithful geyser.

THINK ABOUT IT
What are the observational units and variable in this study? Is the variable quantitative
or categorical?

The observational units are the 222 geyser eruptions, and the variable is the time until the
next eruption, which is a quantitative variable. The dotplot displays the distribution of this P.2.1
variable, which means the values taken by the variable and how many eruptions have those
values. The dotplot helps us see the patterns in times until the next eruption.
The most obvious point to be seen from this graph is that even Old Faithful is not per-
fectly predictable! The time until the next eruption varies from eruption to eruption. In fact,
variability is the most fundamental property in studying Statistics.
We can view the times until the next eruption as observations from a process, an end-
less series of potential observations from which our data constitute a small “snapshot.” Our
assumption is that these observations give us a representative view of the long-run behavior
of the process. Although we don’t know in advance how long it will take for the next eruption,
in part because there are many factors that determine when that will be (e.g., temperature,
season, pressure) and in part because of unavoidable, natural variation, we may be able to
see a predictable pattern overall if we record enough inter-eruption times. Statistics helps us
to describe, measure, and, often, explain the pattern of variation in these measurements.
Looking more closely at the dotplot, we can notice several things about the distribution
of the time until the next eruption:

• The shortest time until the next eruption was 42 minutes, and the longest time was
95 minutes.
• There appear to be two clusters of times, one cluster between roughly 42 and 63 minutes,
another between about 66 and 95 minutes.
• The lower cluster of inter-eruption times is centered at approximately 55 minutes, give or
take a little, whereas the upper cluster is centered at approximately 80 minutes, give or
take a little. Overall, the distribution of times until the next eruption is centered at approx-
imately 75 minutes.
• In the lower cluster, times until next eruption vary between 42 and 63 minutes, with most
of the times between 50 and 60 minutes. In the upper cluster, times vary between 66 and
95 minutes, with most between 70 and 85 minutes.

What are some possible explanations for the variability in the times? One thought is that
some of the variability in times until the next eruption might be explained by considering the
length of the previous eruption. It seems to make sense that after a particularly long eruption
Old Faithful might need more time to build enough pressure to produce another eruption.
Similarly, after a shorter eruption, Old Faithful might be ready to erupt again sooner without
having to wait very long. Fortunately, the researchers recorded a second variable about each
eruption: the duration of the eruption, which is another quantitative variable. For simplicity we
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tradesman; and it is from these two classes, whose social position is
much higher in America than it is here, that the greater part of their
teachers are drawn. They come from an educated class, and are
entitled by their antecedents, as well as by their office, to some
position, and they know how to assert it and maintain it. They have
no more timidity or mauvaise honte than their friends. They are full of
energy and ambition, and there is always animation in their teaching.
It is quite impossible for any country to have better material for
teachers than America has. And they appear to have an
inexhaustible supply of it. ‘Our half a million of teachers’ is not an
uncommon expression among them; but though this must pass for
an American figure of speech, still what it implies is true, that
whatever number of teachers may be required will always be
forthcoming. I once heard an American bachelor in this country
affirm that whenever he thought of marrying he should, other things
being equal, give the preference to a lady who had for some years
been a school-teacher. I do not know to what extent this sentiment is
shared by my friend’s countrymen, or whether the lady-teachers of
American schools are aware of the existence of this feeling in their
favour; but at all events it shows that the social position of teachers
is regarded as good.
Of course it is a mere truism to say that
American teachers would be more efficient if they Grading, an
had had more special training. But whatever their Improvement on
deficiency may be in this respect, the advantages I Classes.
have just spoken of as possessed by them are
very manifest; and as soon as you enter an American school (this
may be said generally of those in the North), you feel at once that
you are surrounded by quite a different atmosphere from anything
you are familiar with at home.
Another advantage their schools possess over ours is, that they
are what, in American school-phraseology, is called ‘graded.’ This,
unlike what I have just been mentioning, may be transplanted to our
side of the water. I need not now explain what grading means,
because I have spoken more than once of this method of arranging
and teaching schools. It ensures much more careful teaching than
our method, and that the whole of the school-time shall be devoted
to study. I know that there are some who have recently said that it
fails in individualising each case. I see, however, no force in this
remark, because I was struck with the degree to which the very
reverse of it resulted from the adoption of the method. It must be
compared with the only other alternative for schools—that of the
class system—and a little consideration will show that it is the class
system perfected; for it is simply the assigning of one class to one
person, and obliging that person to devote the whole of the school-
time, from the first to the last minute, to teaching that one class. It
prevents the scholars having any idle time while they are in school. It
necessitates a great deal of oral teaching. It concentrates the
teacher’s whole attention on one point, as well as on one class.
It does also very much cheapen the cost of education. But this is
not a benefit that will, among ourselves, be so understood and felt as
that there should be any desire to secure it, until we have rate-
supported schools. Our adoption of the rate to some extent, and in
some form or other, can only be a question of time, for it is the only
just method of supporting open schools; and the people will be
averse to the schools in which their children are educated bearing an
eleemosynary character. And when that day shall have come, then
the majority of the rate-payers here, just as in America, will be in
favour of the system, which, while it very much improves the
teaching, will at the same time very much diminish its cost, by
substituting where parishes are small one school for many.
Any remarks on American schools would be very incomplete if
nothing were said on the exclusion from them of all direct or
dogmatic religious teaching. The general rule is that a small portion,
sometimes limited to ten verses, of the Holy Scriptures should be
read daily, and that this should be followed by the Lord’s Prayer.
Some cities and districts allow more latitude for the prayer, a choice
of certain forms that are provided being permitted, or even an
extempore prayer founded on the Lord’s Prayer. In some schools
moral, as distinguished from religious or doctrinal teaching, may be
founded on the portion of Scripture that has been read. Christianity,
therefore, and the Bible are not ignored, as much being done as can
be done in schools that are supported equally by many Churches
differing from one another in their interpretation of the Bible. The
masters, however, do not in all cases avail themselves of the
opportunities allowed them for reading the Holy Scriptures and for
prayer. Among the laity there is spreading a feeling of disapprobation
at such omissions.
But what is the effect of this limitation of religious
teaching? It must be remembered that these are all Non-religious
day schools. The children are present in school not Irreligious.
only during school hours. They are under the
parental roof every night, at all their meals, and during the morning
and evening of each day. The teacher, therefore, is not in loco
parentis, as he is in the case of the child who boards and lodges with
him, and is entirely entrusted to his care. The parents still have
ample time and opportunities for all the religious instruction they
desire to give their children, and then there is the Sunday, the
Sunday-school, and the teaching of the ministers of religion. The
question, therefore, as far as the primary schools are concerned,
narrows itself to this—Is any irreligious effect produced by the
absence of all direct dogmatic teaching from a school in which the
children are only present a few hours a day, and where they go for
the purpose of learning to read, write, and cipher, with a little
geography and music? I do not think that much evil results from this,
nor do I think that any very great amount of good would result from
any attempt to alter the present system.
In the grammar school, where the instruction is not so mechanical,
the conditions of the question are somewhat different. But even here
I do not think that the tendency of the system is irreligious. I cannot
believe that the cultivation of the intellect, even if there be nothing
addressed directly and formally to their spiritual instincts, is, in the
case of children so circumstanced as these, necessarily evil and
hostile to religion. It would be so if they were confined for all the year,
except the vacations, to the walls of a boarding-school, and the
subject of religion never alluded to. But here again, as was observed
with respect to the scholars of the primary school, the influences of
home, of the church, and of the Sunday-school, ought to render the
silence of the week-day school in a great measure innocuous. And
this is the more likely to be the case with the scholars of the
grammar school, as their parents do for the most part belong to a
higher grade in society.
But if the system be tried in the most legitimate
of all ways, that is by its fruits, I do not think that What is Really
we shall have any reason to be dissatisfied with it. Taught.
The sums raised voluntarily every year in the
United States for the building and maintenance of churches, and for
the support of the ministers of religion, is quite unequalled by what is
collected in the same way among any population of equal amount in
the world. It is impossible to ascertain a point of this kind, but I
believe that it is far greater than what is contributed voluntarily by the
whole of the Latin race. Almost the first buildings raised in the
newest settlements are the churches. No one, unless he has
experienced it, can tell what are the feelings and thoughts that
spontaneously arise on finding yourself, as you enter such a place
as Denver, beyond the prairies and the plains, as it were, welcomed
by the Houses of God, which are the most conspicuous buildings of
the place; and then, again, a few miles further on, as you pass
through the first gorge of the mountains at Golden City, to find
yourself surrounded by a cluster of three churches; and when you
have got up among the little mining towns, perched like eagles’ nests
in the clefts of the mountains, still to find that the object which first of
all attracts your attention is the little tower or spire, albeit of wood,
that marks the building consecrated to God’s service. I was
astonished at the amount collected in the offertory at many of the
churches in which I attended the service. I found the Sunday as well
observed in America as I ever saw it anywhere else. I know that
there are some facts to be set down on the other side, but they do
not counterbalance what I have just been pointing out. And so the
conclusion that I arrived at on this question was, that I should have
liked some direct Christian teaching in the primary schools, and still
more in the grammar schools, but this I knew was impossible. And
on the whole I was not dissatisfied with the results of the American
system of education on the religious character of the people.
 Only one point remains—What, after all, do these schools teach?
It has been lately objected to them that they aim at information, and
not at the development of the faculties; and that they do not cultivate
the taste. We are speaking of the common schools, and so of course
are thinking of what school education in America does for the artisan
and labouring class, and the lower stratum of the middle class; that
is, children corresponding to those who are taught in our national
schools, and those of a somewhat higher grade in society. Are the
faculties (for that is the word insisted on by the most recent writer on
the subject) of these two classes at all more developed here at home
by our schools, than they are in America by their common schools?
Or what fruit does our system bear among these classes in the
refinement and the cultivation of the taste? Or, to put the question in
the ordinary way, Are these classes better taught, rendered better
able to use their wits, and rescued to a greater extent from the
brutalising effects of ignorance among ourselves, or among them?
Could the American system do more for these classes? If it could, I
should be disposed to say it might do more for them on the very
point where it is alleged that it does comparatively too much, that of
giving information. But I do not say this because I thoroughly
approved of so much time being devoted not in the least to imparting
information, but to what is the main point in the schooling of those
who must leave school very young—the teaching them to read, to
write, and to cipher, with accuracy and facility. Among ourselves
there is an enormous amount of failure in these primary matters;
among the Americans there is very little failure in them. They teach
their scholars to write with so much ease, that we may be sure they
will never forget or lay aside the use of the pen; and they teach them
to read with so much ease, and so much with the understanding, that
we may be sure they will continue to read when they have left
school. Do our schools accomplish this?
For ‘the development of the faculties,’ which are
big words with rather indistinct meaning, I would The Dawn of a
substitute the concentration of the powers of the Better Day.
mind on special subjects, such as poetry, history,
classical literature, philology, and the different branches of physical
science, and I would say that the Americans as a nation have not yet
arrived at the point where we may expect much either of this, or of
‘refinement of taste.’ At present all their mental strength and activity
is required for the grand work of bringing a new world into subjection
to man. They become settlers in the wilderness, or engineers and
machinists, or merchants, or professional men, or newspaper-
writers. All who enter on these employments are wanted in them,
and can get a living by them. They invite and receive and
remunerate all the energetic minds of the nation. But it will not
always be so. As soon as the continent begins to fill up, and
extension ceases, then multitudes of active minds will not find
themselves called to the same employments as those of the present
generation are. The battle with nature will then be over. By that time,
too, wealth will have accumulated and become hereditary in many
families. There will be many to appreciate, as well as many to devote
themselves to art and literature. It is then that we may expect that
the American mind and American culture will bear their fruit. They
will then, I believe, have schools and styles of art of their own, and a
literature of their own, as untrammelled as that of Greece, and richer
and more varied than that of any other age or country. The day for
these things has not yet come, but we see already the symptoms of
the dawn; and when it has come, I think there will be no ground for
complaining of ‘want of development of the faculties,’ or of ‘want of
refinement of taste’ in America.

I trust that no word has been inadvertently set down in this book,
should it be so fortunate as to find some readers among those who
treated me with so much hospitality and kindness, which can in any
way be displeasing to an American. If any from that side shall have
accompanied me through its pages, now that the time for saying
‘farewell’ has arrived, my one wish is, that they may have come to
look upon me somewhat in the light in which one of my Boston
acquaintances told me a week’s intercourse had brought him to
regard me, that is, ‘as one of themselves.’
 LONDON: PRINTED BY
SPOTTISWOODE AND CO., NEW-STREET SQUARE
AND PARLIAMENT STREET
 Transcriber’s Notes
pg 136 Changed: bcomes on that account more disappointing
to: becomes on that account more disappointing
pg 229 Changed: gallopping over a plain
to: galloping over a plain
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