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b r i e f c o n t e n t s
Part 1 inTroduCTion 1
Part 6 THe maCroeConomiCs of oPen
chapter 1 Ten Principles of Economics 3 eConomies 271
chapter 2 Thinking Like an Economist 21
Appendix Graphing: A Brief Review 39 chapter 12 Open-Economy Macroeconomics: Basic
chapter 3 Interdependence and the Gains Concepts 273
from Trade 49 chapter 13 A Macroeconomic Theory of the Small
Open Economy 303
vi nel
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t a b l e o f c o n t e n t s
chapter 2
THinking like an eConomisT 21
Learning Objectives 21
©Thinkstock
The Economist as Scientist 22
The Scientific Method: Observation, Theory,
and More Observation 22
Part 1 The Role of Assumptions 23
Economic Models 24
inTroduCTion 1 Our First Model: The Circular-Flow Diagram 24
Our Second Model: The Production Possibilities
Frontier 26
Microeconomics and Macroeconomics 29
chapter 1
Ten PrinCiPles of eConomiCs 3 The Economist as Policy Adviser 30
Learning Objectives 3 Positive versus Normative Analysis 30
Economists in Ottawa 31
How People Make Decisions 4 Why Economists’ Advice Is Not Always Followed 32
Principle #1: People Face Tradeoffs 4
Principle #2: The Cost of Something Why Economists Disagree 33
Is What You Give Up to Get It 5 Differences in Scientific Judgments 33
In The news: Olympic Lineups and Opportunity Cost 6 Differences in Values 33
Principle #3: Rational People Think at the Margin 7 Perception versus Reality 34
Principle #4: People Respond to Incentives 8 In The news: Environmental Economists 35
nel vii
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viii table of contents
©Thinkstock
©Shutterstock
Part 3
Part 2 THe daTa of maCroeConomiCs 97
suPPly and demand:
How markeTs work 65
chapter 5
measuring a naTion’s inCome 99
chapter 4 Learning Objectives 99
THe markeT forCes of suPPly and demand 67
Learning Objectives 67 The Economy’s Income and Expenditure 100
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table of contents ix
The Measurement of Gross Domestic Product 102 Real and Nominal Interest Rates 132
“GDP Is the Market Value . . .” 102 CAse sTUDY: Interest Rates in the Canadian Economy 134
“. . . Of All . . .” 102 Conclusion 135
“. . . Final . . .” 103 Summary 136
“. . . Goods and Services . . .” 103
Key Concepts 136
“. . . Produced . . .” 103
“. . . Within a Country . . .” 103 Questions for Review 136
“. . . In a Given Period of Time” 104 Problems and Applications 137
FYI: Other Measures of Income 104
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Real versus Nominal GDP 108
A Numerical Example 108
The GDP Deflator 110
CAse sTUDY: Real GDP over Recent History 111
CAse sTUDY: GDP, GNP, and Foreign Ownership 112
Part 4
THe real eConomy
GDP and Economic Well-Being 114 in THe long run 139
CAse sTUDY: Measuring Economic Well-Being in
Canada 115
CAse sTUDY: International Differences in GDP and the
Quality of Life 117 chapter 7
In The news: Identifying the 1 Percent 118 ProduCTion and growTH 141
Conclusion 120 Learning Objectives 141
Summary 120
Key Concepts 120 Economic Growth around the World 142
Questions for Review 121 FYI: Are You Richer Than the Richest
American? 144
Problems and Applications 121
Productivity: Its Role and Determinants 144
Why Productivity Is So Important 144
How Productivity Is Determined 145
chapter 6 FYI: The Production Function 147
measuring THe CosT of living 123 CAse sTUDY: Are Natural Resources a Limit to Growth? 148
Learning Objectives 123
Economic Growth and Public Policy 149
The Consumer Price Index 124 The Importance of Saving and Investment 149
How the Consumer Price Index Is Calculated 124 Diminishing Returns and the Catch-Up Effect 149
FYI: What Is in the CPI’s Basket? 126 Investment from Abroad 151
Problems in Measuring the Cost of Living 127 Education 152
The GDP Deflator versus the Consumer Price Index 128 Health and Nutrition 153
In The news: Promoting Human Capital 154
Correcting Economic Variables for the Effects of Property Rights and Political Stability 155
Inflation 130 Free Trade 156
Dollar Figures from Different Times 130 Research and Development 157
FYI: The Bank of Canada’s Inflation Calculator 131 In The news: One Economist’s Answer 157
CAse sTUDY: Mr. Index Goes to Hollywood 131 CAse sTUDY: Productivity Slowdowns and
Indexation 131 Speedups 159
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x table of contents
©Shutterstock
Problems and Applications 191
chapter 9
Part 5
unemPloymenT and iTs naTural raTe 193
Learning Objectives 193 money and PriCes
in THe long run 219
Identifying Unemployment 194
How Is Unemployment Measured? 194
CAse sTUDY: Labour-Force Participation of Men
and Women in the Canadian Economy 198 chapter 10
Does the Unemployment Rate Measure THe moneTary sysTem 221
What We Want It To? 199 Learning Objectives 221
How Long Are the Unemployed without Work? 200
Why Are There Always Some People Unemployed? 201 The Meaning of Money 222
FYI: A Tale of Two Recessions 203 The Functions of Money 222
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table of contents xi
©Thinkstock
chapter 11
money growTH and inflaTion 245
Learning Objectives 245 Part 6
THe maCroeConomiCs
The Classical Theory of Inflation 246 of oPen eConomies 271
The Level of Prices and the Value of Money 246
Money Supply, Money Demand, and Monetary
Equilibrium 247
The Effects of a Monetary Injection 249 chapter 12
A Brief Look at the Adjustment Process 250 oPen-eConomy maCroeConomiCs:
The Classical Dichotomy and Monetary
Neutrality 251
BasiC ConCePTs 273
Learning Objectives 273
Velocity and the Quantity Equation 253
CAse sTUDY: Money and Prices during
Hyperinflations 254 The International Flows of Goods and Capital 274
The Inflation Tax 256 The Flow of Goods: Exports, Imports, and
The Fisher Effect 257 Net Exports 274
In The news: A Recipe for Economic Disaster 258 CAse sTUDY: The Increasing Openness of the Canadian
Economy 275
In The news: Breaking Up the Chain of Production 277
The Costs of Inflation 259
The Flow of Financial Resources: Net Capital
A Fall in Purchasing Power? The Inflation
Outflow 278
Fallacy 260
The Equality of Net Exports and Net Capital Outflow 279
Shoeleather Costs 261
FYI: The Current Account Balance 281
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xii table of contents
Saving, Investment, and Their Relationship to the How Policies and Events Affect a Small Open
International Flows 281 Economy 314
Summing Up 283 FYI: Negative Values of Net Capital Outflow 314
CAse sTUDY: Saving, Investment, and Net Capital Increase in World Interest Rates 315
Outflow of Canada 283 Government Budget Deficits and Surpluses 316
Trade Policy 318
The Prices for International Transactions: Political Instability and Capital Flight 321
Real and Nominal Exchange Rates 286 In The news: The Open-Economy Trilemma 324
Nominal Exchange Rates 286 Conclusion 326
Real Exchange Rates 287 Summary 327
FYI: The Value of the Canadian Dollar 288 Key Concepts 327
FYI: The Euro 291
Questions for Review 327
Problems and Applications 328
A First Theory of Exchange-Rate Determination: Purchasing-
Power Parity 292
The Basic Logic of Purchasing-Power Parity 292
Implications of Purchasing-Power Parity 293
CAse sTUDY: The Nominal Exchange Rate during a
Hyperinflation 294
Limitations of Purchasing-Power Parity 294
CAse sTUDY: The Hamburger Standard 296
©Thinkstock
Perfect Capital Mobility 297
A Small Open Economy 297
Perfect Capital Mobility 298
Limitations to Interest Rate Parity 298
Part 7
Conclusion 299
sHorT-run eConomiC
Summary 300
Key Concepts 300 fluCTuaTions 331
Questions for Review 301
Problems and Applications 301
chapter 14
aggregaTe demand and aggregaTe suPPly 333
Learning Objectives 333
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table of contents xiii
Why the Aggregate-Demand Curve Might Shift 343 A Formula for the Spending Multiplier 393
CAse sTUDY: Housing Wealth 344 Other Applications of the Multiplier Effect 395
The Crowding-Out Effect on Investment 395
The Aggregate-Supply Curve 347 Open-Economy Considerations 397
Why the Aggregate-Supply Curve Is Vertical in the Changes in Taxes 403
Long Run 347 Deficit Reduction 403
Why the Long-Run Aggregate-Supply Curve Might FYI: How Fiscal Policy Might Affect Aggregate
Shift 348 Supply 404
Using Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply
to Depict Long-Run Growth and Inflation 350 Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy 405
Why the Aggregate-Supply Curve Slopes Upward The Case for Active Stabilization Policy 405
in the Short Run 352 The Case against Active Stabilization Policy 405
Why the Short-Run Aggregate-Supply Curve Automatic Stabilizers 406
Might Shift 355 A Flexible Exchange Rate as an Automatic Stabilizer 407
CAse sTUDY: The Recession of 2008–09 (Again) 408
Two Causes of Economic Fluctuations 356
The Effects of a Shift in Aggregate Demand 357 A Quick Summary 410
FYI: Monetary Neutrality Revisited 360 FYI: Interest Rates in the Long Run and the Short Run 412
CAse sTUDY: Big Shifts in Aggregate Demand: Two Conclusion 413
Depressions and World War II 361 Summary 414
CAse sTUDY: The Recession of 2008–09 364
Key Concepts 415
The Effects of a Shift in Aggregate Supply 365
CAse sTUDY: Oil and the Economy 368 Questions for Review 415
FYI: The Origins of Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Problems and Applications 415
Supply 369
Conclusion 371
Summary 371
Key Concepts 372 chapter 16
Questions for Review 372 THe sHorT-run Tradeoff BeTween inflaTion
Problems and Applications 372 and unemPloymenT 417
Learning Objectives 417
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xiv table of contents
FYI: Measuring Expectations of Inflation 435 Pro: Policymakers Should Try to Stabilize the
Disinflation in the 1980s 436 Economy 452
In The news: How to Keep Expected Inflation Low 438 Con: Policymakers Should Not Try to Stabilize the
The Zero-Inflation Target 439 Economy 452
Anchored Expectations 440
The 2008-09 Recession 442 Should Monetary Policy Be Made by an Independent
Looking Ahead 444 Central Bank? 453
Conclusion 445 Pro: Monetary Policy Should Be Made by an
Summary 446 Independent Central Bank 454
Key Concepts 446 Con: Monetary Policy Should Not Be Made by an
Independent Central Bank 455
Questions for Review 447
Problems and Applications 447
Should the Central Bank Aim for Zero Inflation? 456
Pro: The Central Bank Should Aim for Zero Inflation 456
Con: The Central Bank Should Not Aim for Zero
Inflation 457
FYI: Price Level Targeting 459
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Preface
As soon as we got our hands on the first U.S. edition of Principles of Macroeconomics,
it was clear to us that “this one is different.” If other first-year economics textbooks
are encyclopedias, Gregory Mankiw’s was, and still is, a handbook.
Between us, we have many years of experience teaching first-year economics.
Like many instructors, we found it harder and harder to teach with each new
edition of the thick, standard texts. It was simply impossible to cover all of the
material. Of course, we could have skipped sections, features, or whole chapters,
but then, apart from the sheer hassle of telling students which bits to read and not
to read, and worries about the consistencies and completeness of the remaining
material, we ran the risk of leaving students with the philosophy that what mat-
ters is only what’s on the exam.
We do not believe that the writers of these other books set out with the intention
of cramming so much material into them. It is a difficult task to put together the
perfect textbook—one that all instructors would approve of and that all students
would enjoy using. Therefore, to please all potential users, most of the books end
up covering a wide range of topics. And so the books grow and grow.
Professor Mankiw made a fresh start in the first U.S. edition. He included all
the important topics and presented them in order of importance. And in the sixth
U.S. edition, he has resisted the temptation to add more and more material. We
have, in adapting the text for Canadian students, taken a minimalist approach: “If
it isn’t broken, don’t fix it!” While the book is easily recognizable as Mankiw’s, we
have made changes that increase its relevance to Canadian students. Some of these
changes reflect important differences between the Canadian and U.S. economies.
For example, the Canadian economy is much smaller and more open than the
U.S. economy, and this fact is explicitly recognized in this edition. Other changes
reflect important institutional differences between the two countries, including
the structure of the tax system and the nature of competition policy. Finally, the
Canadian edition focuses on issues and includes examples that are more familiar
and relevant to a Canadian audience.
We would not have agreed to participate in the Canadian edition if we were
not extremely impressed with the U.S. edition. Professor Mankiw has done an
outstanding job of identifying the key concepts and principles that every first-year
student should learn.
It was truly a pleasure to work with such a well-thought-out and well-written
book. We have enjoyed teaching from the earlier Canadian editions and we look
forward to using the sixth Canadian edition. We hope you do, too.
nel xv
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xvi Preface
Introductory Material
Chapter 1, “Ten Principles of Economics,” introduces students to the economist’s
view of the world. It previews some of the big ideas that recur throughout
economics, such as opportunity costs, marginal decision making, the role of
incentives, the gain from trade, and the efficiency of market allocations. Throughout
the text an effort is made to relate the discussion back to the ten principles of eco-
nomics introduced in Chapter 1. The interconnections of the material with the ten
principles are clearly identified throughout the text.
Chapter 2, “Thinking Like an Economist,” examines how economists approach
their field of study, discussing the role of assumptions in developing a theory and
introducing the concepts of an economic model. It also discusses the role of econo-
mists in making policy. The appendix to this chapter offers a brief refresher course
on how graphs are used and how they can be abused.
Chapter 3, “Interdependence and the Gains from Trade,” presents the theory
of comparative advantage. This theory explains why individuals trade with their
neighbours, as well as why nations trade with other nations. Much of economics is
about how market forces coordinate many individual production and consump-
tion decisions. As a starting point for this analysis, students see in this chapter
why specialization, interdependence, and trade can benefit everyone.
More Macroeconomics
Our overall approach to teaching macroeconomics is to examine the economy
in the long run (when prices are flexible) before examining the economy in the
short run (when prices are sticky). We believe that this organization simplifies
learning macroeconomics for several reasons. First, the classical assumption of
price flexibility is more closely linked to the basic lessons of supply and demand,
which students have already mastered. Second, the classical dichotomy allows
the study of the long run to be broken up into several more easily digested pieces.
Third, because the business cycle represents a transitory deviation from the econ-
omy’s long-run growth path, studying the transitory deviations is more natural
after the long-run equilibrium is understood. Fourth, the macroeconomic theory
of the short run is more controversial among economists than the macroeconomic
theory of the long run. For these reasons, most upper-level courses in macroeco-
nomics now follow this long-run-before-short-run approach; our goal is to offer
introductory students the same advantage.
Returning to the detailed organization, we start the coverage of macroeco-
nomics with issues of measurement. Chapter 5, “Measuring a Nation’s Income,”
discusses the meaning of gross domestic product and related statistics from the
national income accounts. Chapter 6, “Measuring the Cost of Living,” discusses
the measurement and use of the consumer price index.
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Preface xvii
The next three chapters describe the behaviour of the real economy in the long
run. Chapter 7, “Production and Growth,” examines the determinants of the large
variation in living standards over time and across countries. Chapter 8, “Saving,
Investment, and the Financial System,” discusses the types of financial institu-
tions in our economy and examines their role in allocating resources. Chapter 9,
“Unemployment and Its Natural Rate,” considers the long-run determinants of
the unemployment rate, including job search, minimum-wage laws, the market
power of unions, and efficiency wages.
Having described the long-run behaviour of the real economy, the book then
turns to the long-run behaviour of money and prices. Chapter 10, “The Monetary
System,” introduces the economist’s concept of money and the role of the cen-
tral bank in controlling the quantity of money. Chapter 11, “Money Growth and
Inflation,” develops the classical theory of inflation and discusses the costs that
inflation imposes on a society.
The next two chapters present the macroeconomics of open economies,
maintaining the long-run assumptions of price flexibility and full employment.
Chapter 12, “Open-Economy Macroeconomics: Basic Concepts,” explains the
relationship among saving, investment, and the trade balance; the distinction
between the nominal and real exchange rate; and the theory of purchasing-power
parity. Chapter 13, “A Macroeconomic Theory of the Small Open Economy,” pres-
ents a classical model of the international flow of goods and capital. The model
sheds light on various issues, including the link between budget deficits and trade
deficits and the macroeconomic effects of trade policies. Because instructors differ
their emphasis on this material, these chapters are written so that they can be
used in different ways. Some may choose to cover Chapter 12 but not Chapter 13,
others may skip both chapters, and still others may choose to defer the analysis of
open-economy macroeconomics until the end of their courses.
After fully developing the long-run theory of the economy in Chapters 5
through 13, the book turns to explaining short-run fluctuations around the long-
run trend. This organization simplifies teaching the theory of short-run fluctua-
tions because, at this point in the course, students have a good grounding in many
basic macroeconomic concepts. Chapter 14, “Aggregate Demand and Aggregate
Supply,” begins with some facts about the business cycle and then introduces the
model of aggregate demand and aggregate supply. Chapter 15, “The Influence of
Monetary and Fiscal Policy on Aggregate Demand,” explains how policymakers
can use the tools at their disposal to shift the aggregate-demand curve. Chapter 16,
“The Short-Run Tradeoff between Inflation and Unemployment,” explains why
policymakers who control aggregate demand face a tradeoff between inflation
and unemployment. It examines why this tradeoff exists in the short run, why it
shifts over time, and why it does not exist in the long run.
The book concludes with Chapter 17, “Five Debates over Macroeconomic
Policy.” This capstone chapter considers controversial issues facing policymakers:
the proper degree of policy activism in response to the business cycle, the choice
between rules and discretion in the conduct of monetary policy, the desirability of
reaching zero inflation, the importance of reducing the government’s debt, and the
need for tax reform to encourage saving. For each issue, the chapter presents both
sides of the debate and encourages students to make their own judgments.
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xviii Preface
WALK-THROUGH
The purpose of this text is to help students learn the fundamental lessons of eco-
nomics and to show how such lessons can be applied to the world in which they
live. Toward that end, various learning tools recur throughout the book.
Chapter Openers Well- Case studies Economic theory is useful and interesting only
designed chapter openers act as if it can be applied to understanding actual events and policies.
previews that summarize the Updated or replaced with more current Canadian examples, the
major concepts to be learned in numerous case studies apply the theory that has just been
each chapter. developed.
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Preface xix
Updated Canadian “In the news” “FYI” Features These features provide addi-
Features One benefit that students gain from tional material “for your information.” Some of
studying economics is a new perspective and them offer a glimpse into the history of economic
greater understanding about news from Canada thought. Others clarify technical issues. Still
and around the world. To highlight this benefit, others discuss supplementary topics that instruc-
excerpts from many Canadian news articles, tors might choose either to discuss or skip in their
including opinion columns written by prominent lectures.
economists, show how basic economic theory can
be applied.
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xx Preface
nel
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Preface xxi
Chapter 2 A new section has been added on “Why Economists’ Advice Is Not
Always Followed.” In the “Why Economists Disagree” section, a revised table lists
“Propositions about Which Most Economists Agree.”
Chapter 5 A new In the News feature asks “Who Are the 1%?” and presents
data showing how the share of total Canadian income received by the richest
1 percent has varied since 1920. The existing case study on foreign investment has
been improved; interest in this topic has grown recently as a result of Chinese
companies purchasing Canadian firms.
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xxii Preface
Chapter 9 A new FYI feature discusses the idea of a “living wage” and com-
pares it to minimum and efficiency wages. The discussion of Employment
Insurance has been updated to reflect recent changes in legislation.
Chapter 10 A new section takes a closer look at details related to bank capital,
the capital requirements of banks, the concept of leverage, and the role that all of
these played in the 2007–09 financial crisis. The concept of quantitative easing is
also introduced and discussed.
Chapter 13 A new In the News feature discusses the open economy “tri-
lemma” and explains how small open economies like Canada can choose between
only two of the following: using monetary policy to stabilize the economy, fixing
the exchange rate, and allowing financial capital to flow freely into and out of the
economy.
Chapter 14 A new In the News feature discusses the ways in which recessions
have broad impacts beyond those that can be described by unemployment rates
and falling GDP. A new discussion of the Keystone XL and Northern Gateway oil
pipeline projects is included.
Chapter 15 A new FYI feature examines what monetary policy can or cannot
do when nominal interest rates fall close to zero. The concept of the liquidity trap
is discussed, as is the possibility of using quantitative easing.
nel
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Preface xxiii
ANCILLARIES
For the Instructor
The Nelson Education Teaching Advantage (NETA) program delivers research-
based instructor’s resources that promote student engagement and higher-order
thinking to enable the success of Canadian students and educators. Whether
your course is offered in class, online, or both, Nelson is pleased to provide
pedagogically driven, research-based resources to support you. Be sure to visit
Nelson Education’s Inspired Instruction website at www.nelson.com/inspired
to find out more about NETA. Don’t miss the testimonials of instructors who
have used NETA supplements and seen student engagement increase!
The four NETA programs that accompany Principles of Macroeconomics, Sixth
Canadian Edition, are NETA Engagement (the instructor’s manual, including
teaching tips for promoting student engagement), NETA Assessment (for
testing and quizzing), NETA Presentation (for PowerPoint lectures), and NETA
Digital (the framework that underlies all online offerings). Details of the sup-
plements prepared specifically for use with Principles of Macroeconomics follow
the general NETA program notes below (see the heading for the Instructor’s
Resource CD). Instructor supplements can also be downloaded from the dedi-
cated website at www.nelson.com/mankiwmacro6e.
neTA Presentation has been developed to help instructors make the best use
of PowerPoint® in their classrooms. With a clean and uncluttered design devel-
oped by Maureen Stone of StoneSoup Consulting, NETA Presentation features
slides with improved readability, more multimedia and graphic materials, activi-
ties to use in class, and tips for instructors on the Notes page. A copy of NETA
Guidelines for Classroom Presentations by Maureen Stone is included with each set
of PowerPoint slides.
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— Voyez-vous, dis-je à M. Crawford, un excès de précaution peut
être quelquefois pire qu’une imprudence ? Notre assassin a pensé à
tout… Il a même dépassé la mesure, car le soin qu’on a mis à
démontrer qu’il était impossible de pénétrer chez M. Chancer prouve
au contraire qu’on y est entré.
M. Crawford parut contrarié.
Il était évident qu’il perdait du terrain.
— Pourquoi, riposta-t-il, vous faut-il bon gré mal gré un
assassin ? On ne tue pas les gens sans raison… on assassine pour
des motifs d’ordre passionnel, ce qui n’est pas le cas, je suppose…
On assassine surtout pour de l’argent… A-t-on volé M. Chancer ?
Mon honorable contradicteur avait raison.
Dans ma précipitation, je n’avais pas encore songé à ce facteur
élémentaire de toute présomption de crime : le vol.
Je congédiai donc la valetaille et fis signe à Bailey et à Mac
Pherson d’approcher.
L’inspecteur Bailey gardait un air goguenard qu’il accentua même
lorsque je pris la parole.
— Vous vous êtes sans doute, lui dis-je, livré à une perquisition
sommaire ?
— Dès la première heure, oui, monsieur Dickson.
— Avez-vous relevé des traces d’effraction sur les meubles ?
— Aucune, monsieur Dickson.
Et le chief-inspector ajouta avec emphase :
— Le vol n’est pas le mobile du crime, si toutefois il y a crime.
— Sur quoi étayez-vous cette affirmation ?
Bailey me désigna un petit secrétaire en bois de rose :
— Voici le meuble où le défunt serrait ses valeurs. Tout est en
place… monsieur Dickson peut s’en rendre compte.
J’ouvris le secrétaire avec précaution.
Sur les tablettes, des papiers soigneusement rangés et
assemblés par liasses s’étageaient en petites piles régulières. Rien
dans cet ordre méticuleux ne laissait supposer que la main hâtive
d’un voleur eût fouillé ces archives.
Je visitai un à un les six tiroirs intérieurs du meuble et j’en trouvai
cinq bondés de ces menus objets sans valeur que collectionnent les
maniaques inoffensifs. Quant au sixième, lorsque je le tirai, il rendit
un son métallique.
La figure de Bailey s’épanouit.
Ce tiroir était rempli de monnaie d’or.
— Ce sont les économies du bonhomme, me dit le chief-
inspector. Je ne pense pas que l’on puisse parler de vol dès lors
qu’on se trouve en présence d’un malfaiteur assez novice pour ne
pas faire main basse sur un trésor aussi peu caché.
Je considérai cet or qui scintillait au fond du tiroir et semblait me
narguer.
La somme paraissait assez considérable, mais en cela seul ne
pouvait consister toute la fortune du mort.
J’en fis l’observation à Bailey.
— Sait-on d’où M. Chancer tirait ses ressources ? me répondit le
chief-inspector. Il devait avoir un ou plusieurs hommes d’affaires à
Melbourne… Ceux-ci administraient son bien et lui en servaient le
revenu… Cet argent doit représenter le dernier versement ; tel est du
moins mon humble avis, monsieur Dickson.
L’explication était, en effet, assez vraisemblable.
En présence des policiers, je vidai le contenu du tiroir et une à
une les pièces d’or me passèrent entre les doigts.
C’étaient des souverains à l’effigie de la reine Victoria et — détail
qui me surprit — ayant tous un aspect neuf et brillant bien que la
plupart portassent des millésimes déjà anciens.
J’en vins à supposer que M. Chancer, qui se complaisait sans
doute dans la contemplation de ses richesses, se faisait
spécialement réserver les pièces qui, ayant longtemps séjourné
dans les caisses publiques, gardent cet éclat de métal vierge que
perdent rapidement leurs contemporaines lancées dans la
circulation. Il y avait en or exactement cent quatre-vingt-trois livres,
plus quelque monnaie en argent, couronnes et shillings auxquels je
ne prêtai pas attention. Toutefois, mettant à profit la demi-obscurité
dans laquelle nous opérions, je glissai subrepticement dans ma
poche quatre souverains empruntés au magot et que je remplaçai,
séance tenante, par quatre pièces à moi, de même valeur.
— C’est bien, dis-je d’un ton sec… il n’y a eu ni effraction, ni
vol… Je vous remercie, messieurs… vous êtes témoins que j’ai
remis la somme en place dans son intégrité.
Les policiers s’inclinèrent.
J’avais repris en main la bougie… un reflet éclaira soudain la tête
du mort et je tressaillis imperceptiblement.
Je reconduisis vivement Bailey et Mac Pherson jusqu’à la porte
que je refermai en la calant avec une chaise, comme je l’avais fait
quelques minutes auparavant, puis je m’approchai de mon ami.
M. Crawford ne semblait plus s’intéresser à cette affaire et je le
surpris bâillant à se décrocher la mâchoire… Il devait sans doute à
ce moment avoir une triste opinion de moi et il n’était pas douteux
que je lui fisse l’effet d’un piètre Sherlock Holmes.
— Maintenant, lui dis-je, je vais interroger le cadavre…
— Que signifie cette plaisanterie macabre ? dit-il.
Je revins auprès du corps, et dès que j’eus promené la lumière
en tous sens, de droite, de gauche, en bas, en haut, je ne pus retenir
une petite exclamation de joie.
Je ne m’étais pas trompé.
Alors, je m’agenouillai et priant M. Crawford de me tenir la bougie
à bonne distance, je pris à deux mains la tête de M. Ugo Chancer.
Dans ses cheveux on voyait des petits points qui brillaient
comme des paillettes de verre.
C’étaient des grains de sable presque imperceptibles, mais que
l’on sentait cependant très bien sous les doigts.
Lorsque, reconduisant les policiers, j’avais surpris ce
scintillement, une idée m’était venue qui se précisa rapidement.
Oui, c’était bien cela, je me trouvais en présence d’une affaire
absolument semblable à celle de Paddington-House.
— Ceci est du sable, déclarai-je d’un ton péremptoire.
M. Crawford répéta machinalement :
— En effet, on dirait du sable.
— Et la présence de ce sable dans la chevelure de M. Chancer
ne vous paraît pas bizarre ?
— Ma foi…
— Cela ne vous suggère rien ?
— Rien… sinon — mais ce serait insoutenable — que M.
Chancer est tombé dans une allée de son jardin et qu’il est venu
ensuite mourir ici…
— C’est assez bien déduit, répliquai-je… mais insoutenable en
effet… Ce sable est beaucoup trop menu pour provenir du jardin…
C’est du sable de mer, monsieur Crawford.
— Vous croyez ?
— Je l’affirme… et ces parcelles que vous voyez là se sont
échappées d’un bag-maul.
— Un bag-maul, dites-vous ?
— Oui… vous ne connaissez pas cet engin ?
— Ma foi non… c’est même la première fois que j’entends
prononcer ce mot.
— Eh bien ! monsieur Crawford, le bag-maul est une sorte de
petit sac oblong rempli de sable dont se servent comme d’une
massue certains professionnal robbers [1] d’Australie… M. Ugo
Chancer a été assommé au moyen d’un de ces sacs.
[1] Voleurs de profession.
J’étais sur le premier pas d’une piste ; je tenais l’extrémité d’un fil
qu’il ne s’agissait plus que de suivre sans le lâcher jamais. Et le bout
de ce fil partait précisément de cette porte dérobée par où mon
assassin s’était esquivé.
Je devais suivre de là sa trace au dehors.
— Venez-vous, mon cher ? dis-je à M. Crawford.
— Non… vraiment… je préfère vous attendre ici.
— Comme il vous plaira…
J’ouvris la porte qui donnait sur un escalier secret et gagnai le
parc sans plus me soucier de Bailey ni de Mac Pherson qui se
morfondaient toujours dans l’antichambre.
Mon espoir était de relever sur le sol une empreinte de pas.
La chaussure c’est l’homme, a dit quelqu’un, et jamais aphorisme
ne fut plus vrai.
Avec le simple tracé d’une semelle on peut toujours, pourvu
qu’on soit habile, retrouver un malfaiteur.
Malheureusement il n’avait pas plu depuis trois semaines et la
terre était sèche comme de la craie. Toutefois, le long d’un mur où
de grands arbres entretenaient une providentielle humidité, je finis
par découvrir une empreinte de bottine assez bien dessinée… une
bottine fine, étroite, à bout effilé et carré, une vraie chaussure de
gentleman.
Un détail pourtant choquait dans l’élégante cambrure de la
semelle : c’était une ligne à peine perceptible qui la barrait en biais
au niveau de l’évidement.
Cette chaussure avait été ressemelée !
Or un homme du monde ne porte jamais de chaussures
ressemelées ! [2]
[2] Dans les pays à change élevé.