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ROBERT STINE DEAN FOSTER
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Statistics for Business
Decision Making and Analysis
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Decision Making and Analysis

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Third Edition
ISBN-13: 978-0-13-449716-7
ISBN-10: 0-13-449716-3
9 0 0 0 0
STINE
9 780134 497167
FOSTER
CONTENTS vii
11 Probability Models for Counts 251

11.1 Random Variables for Counts 252
11.2 Binomial Model 254
11.3 Properties of Binomial Random Variables 255
11.4 Poisson Model 259
Chapter Summary 265
12 The Normal Probability Model 270

12.1 Normal Random Variable 271
12.2 The Normal Model 274
12.3 Percentiles 280
12.4 Departures from Normality 282
Chapter Summary 290
CASE: STATISTICS IN ACTION Managing Financial Risk 298
CASE: STATISTICS IN ACTION Modeling Sampling Variation 306
PART III Inference

13 Samples and Surveys 314
13.1 Two Surprising Properties of Samples 315
13.2 Variation 320
13.3 Alternative Sampling Methods 323
13.4 Questions to Ask 326
Chapter Summary 329
14 Sampling Variation and Quality 334

14.1 Sampling Distribution of the Mean 335
14.2 Control Limits 340
14.3 Using a Control Chart 344
14.4 Control Charts for Variation 347
Chapter Summary 354
15 Confidence Intervals 362

15.1 Ranges for Parameters 363
15.2 Confidence Interval for the Mean 368
15.3 Interpreting Confidence Intervals 372
15.4 Manipulating Confidence Intervals 373
15.5 Margin of Error 376
Chapter Summary 384
16 Statistical Tests 391

16.1 Concepts of Statistical Tests 392
16.2 Testing the Proportion 397
16.3 Testing the Mean 404
A01_STIN7167_03_SE_FM.indd 7 12/11/16 10:03 AM

viii CONTENTS
16.4 Significance versus Importance 408

16.5 Confidence Interval or Test? 409
Chapter Summary 413
17 Comparison 420
17.1 Types of Comparisons 421
17.2 Data for Comparisons 421
17.3 Two-Sample z-Test for Proportions 424
17.4 Two-Sample Confidence Interval for Proportions 425
17.5 two-Sample t-Test 429
17.6 Confidence Interval for the Difference Between Means 433
17.7 Paired Comparisons 436
Chapter Summary 446
18 Inference for Counts 453

18.1 Chi-Squared Tests 454
18.2 Test of Independence 454
18.3 General versus Specific Hypotheses 466
18.4 Tests of Goodness of Fit 467
Chapter Summary 477
CASE: STATISTICS IN ACTION Rare Events 484
CASE: STATISTICS IN ACTION Data Mining Using Chi-Squared 491
PART IV Regression Models

19 Linear Patterns 498
19.1 Fitting a Line to Data 499
19.2 Interpreting the Fitted Line 501
19.3 Properties of Residuals 506
19.4 Explaining Variation 508
19.5 Conditions for Simple Regression 510
Chapter Summary 520
20 Curved Patterns 528

20.1 Detecting Nonlinear Patterns 529
20.2 Transformations 531
20.3 Reciprocal Transformation 532
20.4 Logarithm Transformation 538
Chapter Summary 550
21 The Simple Regression Model 557

21.1 The Simple Regression Model 558
21.2 Conditions for the SRM 562
21.3 Inference in Regression 565
21.4 Prediction Intervals 573
Chapter Summary 587

CONTENTS ix
22 Regression Diagnostics 596

22.1 Changing Variation 597
22.2 Outliers 607
22.3 Dependent Errors and Time Series 611
Chapter Summary 622
23 Multiple Regression 630

23.1 The Multiple Regression Model 631
23.2 Interpreting Multiple Regression 632
23.3 Checking Conditions 640
23.4 Inference In Multiple Regression 642
23.5 Steps In Fitting A Multiple Regression 646
Chapter Summary 656
24 Building Regression Models 667

24.1 Identifying Explanatory Variables 668
24.2 Collinearity 673
24.3 Removing Explanatory Variables 678
Chapter Summary 694
25 Categorical Explanatory Variables 703

25.1 Two-Sample Comparisons 704
25.2 Analysis of Covariance 706
25.3 Checking Conditions 711
25.4 Interactions and Inference 712
25.5 Regression with Several Groups 719
Chapter Summary 726
26 Analysis of Variance 736

26.1 Comparing Several Groups 737
26.2 Inference in ANOVA Regression Models 744
26.3 Multiple Comparisons 748
26.4 Groups of Different Size 754
Chapter Summary 759
27 Time Series 768

27.1 Decomposing a Time Series 769
27.2 Regression Models 772
27.3 Checking the Model 782
Chapter Summary 797
CASE: STATISTICS IN ACTION Analyzing Experiments 807
CASE: STATISTICS IN ACTION Automated Modeling 815

x CONTENTS
Appendix: Tables 823

Answers A-1
Credits C-1
Index I-1
Supplementary Material (online-only)
S1 Alternative Approaches to Inference S1-1
S2 Two-Way Analysis of Variance S2-1
S3 Regression with Big Data S3-1

PREFACE
Knowledge of statistics is a great asset in business, but another way to get ahead of the competition, the key is
getting the most value from this asset requires knowing a desire to learn how statistics can produce better de-
how to ask and answer the right questions. Choosing the cisions and insights from the growing amount of data
right question and solving the problem correctly require generated in modern businesses.
an appreciation of business as well as the subtleties of We don’t assume that readers have mastered the do-
statistics. Unless you understand the business issue from mains of a business education, such as economics, fi-
a finance, marketing, management, or accounting per- nance, marketing, or accounting. We do assume, though,
spective, you won’t see how statistics can help solve the that you care how ideas from these areas can improve a
problem. Performing the statistical analysis must wait business. If you’re interested in these applications—and
until you have grasped the issue facing the business. we think you will be—then our examples provide the
background you will need to appreciate why we want
to solve the challenges that we present in each chapter.
Solving Business Problems
Readers with more experience will discover that we’ve
This application-directed approach is key to business simplified the technical details of some applications, such
analytics and shapes our examples. We open each chap- as those in finance or marketing. Even so, we think that
ter with a business question that motivates the contents the examples offer those with substantive experience a
of the chapter. For extra practice, worked-out examples new perspective on familiar problems. We hope that you
within each chapter follow our 4M (Motivation, Method, will agree that the examples are realistic and get to the
Mechanics, Message) problem-solving strategy. The mo- heart of quantitative applications of statistics in business.
tivation sets up the problem and explains the relevance
of the question at hand. We then identify the appropri-
Technology
ate statistical method and work through the mechanics
of its calculation. Finally, the message answers the ques- You cannot do research in modern applied statistics
tion in language suitable for a business presentation or without computing. Data sets have grown in size and
report. Through the 4Ms, we’ll show you how a business complexity, making it impossible to work out the cal-
context guides the statistical procedure and how the re- culations by hand. Rather than dwell on routine cal-
sults determine a course of action. Motivation and Mes- culations, we rely on software (often referred to as a
sage are critical. The Motivation answers the question statistics package) to compute the results. Although we
“Why am I doing this analysis?”. If you cannot answer emphasize the use of technology, we give the formulas
that question, it’s hard to get the statistics correct. The and illustrate the calculations introduced in each chap-
Message has to express your answer in language that ter so that you will always know what the software is
is used in the business world. Understand the business doing. It is essential to appreciate what happens in the
first, then use statistics to help formulate your conclu- calculations: You need to understand how the calcu-
sion. Notice that we said “help.” A statistical analysis by lations are done in order to recognize when they are
itself is not the final answer. You must frame that analy- appropriate and when they fail. That does not mean,
sis in terms that others in the business will understand however, that you need to spend hours doing routine
and find persuasive. calculations. Your time is precious, and there’s only so
Our emphasis on the substantive use of statistics in much of it to go around. We think it makes good eco-
business shapes our view that the ideal reader for this nomic sense to take advantage of modern technology
text is someone with an interest in learning how statis- in order to give us more time to think harder and more
tical thinking improves the ability of a manager to run thoroughly about the motivating context for an applica-
or contribute to a business. Whether you’re an under- tion and to successfully present the business message.
graduate with an interest in business, an MBA looking When we present results obtained with a calcula-
to improve your skills, or a business owner looking for tor or computer, we typically round them. You don’t
xi

xii PREFACE
need to know that the profits from a projected sale examples, and illustrations that stress the impor-
are $123,234.32529. It’s usually better to round such a tance of these connections. For example, previous
number to $123 thousand. To let you know when we’ve editions introduced the 4M paradigm—motivation,
rounded a calculation, we say about or approximately. method, mechanics, and message—that shows how
In expressions, we denote rounding with the symbol < , to combine data and statistics to solve problems in
as in 1/6 < 0.167. business. This edition carries this metaphor further.
To help you learn how to use software, each chapter By explicitly linking this paradigm to analytics, this
includes hints on using Excel®, MinitabExpress®, and edition shows that business analytics requires blend-
JMP® for calculations. These hints won’t replace the help ing substantive relevance with statistical analysis.
provided by your software, but they will point you in the ■■ Up-to-date applications explore problems related to
right direction so that you don’t spin your wheels figur- “big data” and introduce hot topics such as A/B test-
ing out how to get started with an analysis. Supplemental ing that are popular in today’s businesses. Although the
software study cards are available for specific packages. methods behind these new topics are familiar within
statistics, the names are new. This edition makes sure
Data students know the new names so that they can link what
they learn in the classroom to what they read online.
Statistical analysis uses data, and we’ve provided lots ■■ This edition features more than 90 new and updated
of data to give you the opportunity to have some real data sets. The changed data range from examples
hands-on experience. As you read through the chap- used within chapters to those underlying exercises.
ters, you’ll discover a variety of data sets that include Important, highly visible changes include “through
real estate markets, stocks and bonds, technology, retail the cycle” finance and economic time series that
sales, human resource management, and fundamental span the 2008 recession.
economics. These data come from a range of sources, ■■ More than 100 enhanced exercises remove ambi-
and each chapter includes a discussion about where we guities and capture nuances in revised data. Many of
found the data used in examples. We hope you’ll use our these changes address issues identified by tracking
suggestions and find more. online student performance in completing related
exercises in MyStatLab. Problems that were worded
Prerequisite Knowledge in a way that might confuse students were clarified.
To appreciate the illustrative calculations and formulas,
■■ Excel is the workhorse tool of many businesses. This
readers will need to be familiar with basic algebra. Por- edition adds a section to every chapter that shows
tions of chapters that introduce a statistical method of- step by step how to complete analytic exercises with
ten include some algebra to show where a formula comes the latest version of Excel. Excel is the most popular
from. Usually, we only use basic algebra (up through top- software for introductory statistics, but some prefer
ics such as exponents and square roots). Several chapters the features offered by statistics packages such as
make extensive use of the logarithm function. If you’re Minitab or JMP. We’ve retained and updated hints in
interested in business and economics, this is a function each chapter for these as well.
worth getting to know a lot better. The applications we’ve
■■ It’s the little things. Hundreds of changes have been
provided, such as modeling sales or finding the best made throughout this edition to emphasize and clar-
price, show why the logarithm is so important. Occasion- ify key points. For example, this edition highlights
ally, we give credit to calculus for solving a problem, but additional tips throughout the text that help readers
we don’t present derivations using calculus. You’ll do fine recognize important points that might be overlooked.
if you are willing to accept that calculus is a branch of Clarified explanations, analogies, and examples in
more advanced mathematics that provides, among other every chapter encourage students to delve deeper
things, the ability to derive formulas that have special and learn for themselves.
properties. If you do know calculus, you’ll be able to see
where these expressions come from.
COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION
We have organized the chapters of this book into four
WHAT’S NEW IN THIS EDITION parts:
This edition adds more of what readers have found re- 1. Variation
ally useful: 2. Probability
3. Inference
■■ Business analytics relies on linking data to business
4. Regression Models
decisions. Businesses ranging from traditional banks
to the latest game developers are clamoring for em- Part I. These chapters introduce summary statistics
ployees who can connect data and models to substan- such as the mean and important graphical summaries,
tive business problems. This edition adds emphasis, including bar charts, histograms, and scatterplots. Even

PREFACE xiii
if you are familiar with these methods, we encourage Case Studies

you to skim the examples in these chapters. These ex-
Each of the four main parts of this book includes two
amples introduce important terminology that appears
supplemental case studies called Statistics in Action.
in subsequent chapters. A quick review will introduce
Each case study provides an in-depth look at a business
the notation that we use (which is rather standard) as
application of statistics. Every case uses real data and
well as give you a chance to look at some interesting
takes students through the details of using those data to
data. If you do skip past these, take advantage of the
address a business question. For example, a case study
index of Key Terms in each chapter to find definitions
for Part 1 explains details of stock market data, such
and examples.
as how stock returns account for dividends, and elabo-
Part II. Many courses in mathematics now include topics rates the nuances of financial data beyond the coverage
from probability. Even if you have seen basic probability, in the surrounding chapters.
you might benefit from reviewing how methods, such as We’ve found that it is easy to have a “chapter-centric”
Bayes’ Rule, can be used to improve business processes view of any subject; you know how to approach a prob-
(Chapter 8). If you plan to skip or move briskly through lem if the question identifies a chapter. Executing the
the rest of the chapters in Part 2, be sure that you’re famil- right approach is more difficult without that sort of clue.
iar with the concept of a random variable (Chapter 9). Sta- Case studies allow us to extend the statistical con-
tistical models use random variables to present an ideal- cepts introduced in the accompanying chapters in the
ized description of the data in applications. Unless you’re context of a longer, more complex case. For example,
familiar with random variables, you won’t appreciate the the second case in Part 1 carefully explains how to in-
important assumptions that come with their use in prac- terpret and use logarithms in the context of executive
tice. Chapter 11 describes special random variables used salaries. A case in Part 3 explores the use of many chi-
to model counts, and Chapter 12 defines normal random squared tests in an operations management problem
variables that appear so often in statistical models. that resembles data mining. While logs, chi-squared
tests, and issues of multiple testing all appear in the
Part III. This part presents the foundations for statistical
regular flow of the main chapters, case studies provide
inference, the process of inferring properties of an entire
a means for us to cover these topics in more detail than
population from those of a subset known as a sample.
we thought was appropriate for everyone.
Even if you are not interested in quality control, we en-
courage you to read Chapter 14. Chapter 14 uses quality
control to introduce a fundamental concept of inferential Supplementary Chapters
statistics, the sampling distribution and standard error.
For this edition, we’ve added a few supplementary chap-
You can get by in statistics with a basic understanding of
ters that are available online. These cover topics that are
the concept of a sampling distribution, but the more you
less common in the typical business stats course, but of-
know about sampling distributions, the better. Each in-
ten useful. One chapter covers methods that are needed
ferential procedure comes with a checklist of conditions
when the usual approaches don’t apply. For example,
that tell you whether your data and situation match up
suppose data are so skewed that one cannot use stan-
to the various inferential techniques in these chapters.
dard methods for building a confidence interval for the
Part IV. The chapters in Part 4 describe regression mod- mean. What are you to do? The supplemental chapter
eling. Regression modeling allows us to associate how Alternative Approaches to Inference gives an answer.
differences in data that describe one phenomenon are Two other supplemental chapters go deeper into regres-
related to differences in others. Regression models are sion modeling. The chapter Two-Way Analysis of Vari-
among the most powerful ways to use statistics in busi- ance goes beyond Chapter 26 and looks at two-way (and
ness, providing methods for assessing profitability, setting higher) analysis of variance, including those with ran-
prices, identifying anomalies, and generating forecasts. domized blocking and interactions. The chapter Regres-
We encourage you to slow down and take your time study- sion Modeling with Big Data goes beyond Chapter 24
ing these chapters. Even if you don’t see yourself doing and the Statistics in Action cases with coverage of how to
statistics in your career in business, you can be sure build regression models when confronted by “big-data”
that you will be presented with the results of regression issues that have become more common in business.
models. Because the examples in these chapters allow
us to describe the interconnectedness of several busi-
ness processes at once, they become even more interest-
ing than those in prior chapters. Be careful if you skip
FEATURES
Chapter 20. The material in this chapter shows how to Motivating Examples. Each chapter opens with a
model a richer set of patterns and is less common in business example that frames a question and motivates
business textbooks, but we think these ideas are an es- the contents of the chapter. We return to the example
sential component of every manager’s tool set. throughout the chapter, as we present the statistical

xiv PREFACE
methods that provide answers to the question posed in Software Hints. Each chapter includes hints on using
the opening example. Excel, Minitab, and JMP for calculations. These hints
give students a jumping off point for getting started
The 4M (Motivation,
4M Analytics Examples doing statistical analysis with software. Supplemental
Method, Mechanics, study cards for these and other software packages are
Message) problem-solving strategy gives students a clear available from the publisher.
outline for solving any business problem. Each 4M ex-
ample first expresses a business question in context, Behind the Math. At the end of most chapters, a Be-
then guides students to determine the best statistical hind the Math section provides interesting technical
method for working the problem using statistical soft- details that explain important results, such as the jus-
ware, and, finally, frames the analysis in terms that oth- tification or interpretation for an underlying formula.
ers in the business world will understand. If you are so inclined, they will help you appreciate the
subtleties and logic behind the mechanics, but they are
Short question sets not necessary for using statistics.
What Do You Think? throughout each chapter
give students the opportunity to check their under- Chapter Summary. These chapter-ending summaries
standing of what they’ve just read. These questions are provide a complete review of the content.
intended to be a quick check of key concepts and ideas
presented in the chapter; most questions involve very ■■ Key Terms We provide an index of the chapter’s key
little calculation. Answers are located in a footnote so terms at the end of each chapter to give students a
that students can easily check their answers before quick and easy way to return to important definitions
moving on in the text. in the text.
■■ Objectives This new feature provides a list of what
Tips. We highlight useful hints for applying sta- students should understand after having read a
tip tistical methods within the exposition so that chapter.
students don’t miss them. ■■ Formulas Important formulas introduced within the
chapter are restated.
Caution. You’ll see the caution icon next
■■ About the Data This feature provides sources for the
caution data used throughout the chapter with further back-
to material that might be confusing. You
should be extra careful to make sure you understand ground.
the material being discussed.
Exercises. Each chapter contains a variety of exercises
✓ Checklist. Some statistics presume that the informa- at escalating levels of difficulty in order to give students
tion presented satisfies several conditions or assump- a full complement of practice in problem solving using
tions. For example, certain statistics only detect pat- the skills they’ve learned in the chapter. Types of ex-
terns that resemble lines. You would not want to use ercises include Matching, True/False, Think About It,
these if you were looking for a curve. To help you keep You Do It, and 4M Exercises. You’ll find the data for the
track of the assumptions, the conditions are collected 4M and You Do It exercises on Pearson’s Math and Sta-
in a checklist. tistics Resources Website: http://www.pearsonhighered
.com/mathstats
Best Practices. At the end of each chapter, we include ■■ Matching and True/False exercises test students’ abil-
a collection of tips for applying the chapter’s concepts ity to recognize the basic mathematical symbols and
successfully and ethically. terminology they have learned in the chapter. We
avoid unnecessary formulas, but certain symbols
Pitfalls. Most of the unintentional mistakes people make and terminology show up so often that students are
when learning statistics are avoidable and usually come well served to recognize them.
from using the wrong method for the situation or misinter- ■■ Think About It exercises ask students to pull together
preting the results. This feature at the end of each chapter the chapter’s concepts in order to solve conceptual
provides useful tips for avoiding common mistakes. problems. You don’t need a computer or calculator
Data Analytics: The authors analyzed aggregated student for most of these.
usage and performance data from MyStatLab™ for the ■■ You Do It exercises give students practice solv-
previous edition of this text. The results of this analysis ing problems that reinforce the mechanics they’ve
helped improve the quality and quantity of exercises that learned in the chapter. These exercises apply the
matter the most to instructors and students. methods of the chapter to data related to a business

PREFACE xv
application. Working through the steps of these ex- ■■ 4M Analytics exercises are rich, challenging applica-
ercises helps you practice the mechanics. We expect tions rooted in real business situations. These ask
you to use a statistics software package for many of students to apply the statistical knowledge they’ve
these. developed in the chapter to a set of questions about a
particular business problem.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
We didn’t develop our approach to business statistics Joan Donohue, University of South Carolina
in isolation. Our colleagues at Wharton have helped Steve Erikson, Babson College
shape our approach to teaching statistics in business.
Nancy Freeman, Shelton State Community College
Many of the ideas and examples that you’ll find here
arose from suggestions made by colleagues, including Daniel Friesen, Midwestern State University
Andreas Buja, Sasha Rakhlin, Paul Shaman, Richard Deborah J. Gougeon, University of Scranton
Waterman, and Adi Wyner. Over the years, members of Christian Grandzol, Bloomsburg University
our department have come to share a common attitude
Betsy Greenberg, University of Texas—Austin
toward the use of statistics in business, and this text re-
flects that shared perspective. Most of the examples and Ken Griffin, University of Central Arkansas
many exercises from the text have been tried in other John Grout, Berry College
classes and improved using that feedback. We owe Warren Gulko, University Of North
these friends a debt of gratitude for their willingness to Carolina, Wilmington
talk about the fundamental use of statistics in business
Marie Halvorsen-Ganepola, Notre Dame University
and to explore alternative explanations and examples.
Many thanks to the following reviewers for their Clifford B. Hawley, West Virginia University
comments and suggestions during the revision of this Bob Hopfe, California State University—Sacramento
text. Max Houck, West Virginia University
David Hudgins, University of Oklahoma
Kunle Adamson, DeVry University
Jeffrey Jarrett, University of Rhode Island
Elaine Allen, Babson College
Chun Jin, Central Connecticut State University
Randy Anderson, California State University—Fresno
Christopher K. Johnson, Ph.D. University of
Djeto Assane, University of Nevada, Las Vegas North Florida
Rajesh K. Barnwal, Middle Tennessee State University Morgan Jones, University of North Carolina
Dipankar Basu, Miami University Ronald K. Klimberg, Saint Joseph’s University
Mark Bloxom, Alfred State College SUNY College of David Kopcso, Babson College
Technology
Supriya Lahiri, University of Massachusetts, Lowell
Hannah Bolte, Indiana University Bloomington
Mark T. Leung, University of Texas—San Antonio
David Booth, Kent State University, Main Campus
Tony Lin, Ph.D., University of Southern California
John E. Boyer, Jr., Kansas State University
John McKenzie, Babson College
Michael Braun, Southern Methodist University
Kay McKinzie, University of Central Arkansas
Daniel G. Brick, University of St. Thomas
Mark R. Marino, Niagara University
Nancy Burnett, University of Wisconsin—Oshkosh
Dennis Mathaisel, Babson College
Richard Cleary, Bentley College
Sherryl May, University of Pittsburgh
Ismael Dambolena, Babson College
Bruce McCullough, Drexel University
Anne Davey, Northeastern State University
Richard McGowan, Boston College
Dr. Michael Deis, Clayton University
Constance McLaren, Indiana State University
Frederick W. Derrick, Loyola University Maryland
Robert Meeks, Pima Community College
Neil Desnoyers, Drexel University
Jeffrey Michael, Towson University

xvi PREFACE
Prakash Mirchandani, University of Pittsburgh Omeed Selbe, University of Southern California

Jason Molitierno, Sacred Heart University Gary Smith, Florida State University
Carolyn H. Monroe, Baylor University Erl Sorensen, Bentley College
Gourab Mukherjee, University of Southern California Bert Steece, University of Southern California
Patricia Ann Mullins, University of J. H. Sullivan, Mississippi State University
Wisconsin—Madison Dr. Kathryn A. Szabat, LaSalle University
Quinton J. Nottingham, Virginia Polytechnic & Rajesh Tahiliani, University of Texas—El Paso
State University
Patrick A. Thompson, University of Florida
Keith Ord, Georgetown University
Denise Sakai Troxell, Babson College
Michael Parzen, Emory University
Bulent Uyar, University of Northern Iowa
M. Patterson, Midwestern State University
John Wang, Montclair State University
Robert Pred, Ph.D., Temple University
Dr. William D. Warde, Oklahoma State University,
Leonard Presby, William Paterson University Main Campus
Darrell Radson, Drexel University Elizabeth Wark, Worcester State University
Farhad Raiszadeh, University of James Weber, University of Illinois—Chicago
Tennessee—Chattanooga
Fred Wiseman, Northeastern University
Ranga Ramasesh, Texas Christian University
Roman Wong, Barry University
Deborah Rumsey, The Ohio State University
Zhiwei Zhu, University of Louisiana at Lafayette
John Saber, Babson College
Dr. Subarna Samanta, The College of New Jersey We would also like to thank our accuracy checkers
Subarna Samanta, The College of New Jersey Caroline Swift and Dirk Tempelaar. Thanks also to
Hedayeh Samavati, Indiana University—Purdue Lifland et al., and our Pearson Education team for their
Fort Wayne help and support, especially: Deirdre Lynch, Erin Kelly,
Peggy McMahon, Justin Billing, Jennifer Myers, and
Rose Sebastianelli, University of Scranton
Aimee Thorne.

Resources for Success
Student Resources Online Test Bank
Online Test Bank, by Paul Lorczak
Student’s Solutions Manual This test bank contains ready-to-use quizzes and
Student’s Solutions Manual, by Zhiwei Zhu, Univer- tests that correlate to chapters in the text. The test-
sity of Louisiana, Lafayette bank is available for download from Pearson Educa-
This manual provides detailed, worked-out solu- tion’s online catalog (http://www.pearsonhighered
tions to all odd-numbered text exercises. (ISBN-10: .com/irc).
0-13-449736-8; ISBN-13: 978-0-13-449736-5)
TestGen®
Study Cards for Business
TestGen® (www.pearsoned.com/testgen) enables
Statistics Software instructors to build, edit, print, and administer tests
This series of study cards provides students with using a computerized bank of questions developed
easy step-by-step instructions for using statistics to cover all the objectives of the text. TestGen is al-
software. Available for native Excel® 2016 (0-13- gorithmically based, allowing instructors to create
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Instructor Resources
Instructor’s Edition Technology Resources
This version of the text contains short answers to all
of the exercises within the exercise sets. (ISBN-10:
Data Sets
Data sets formatted for Minitab, Excel, JMP, and text
0-13-449738-4; ISBN-13: 978-0-13-449738-9)
files can be downloaded from MyStatLab or www
Instructor’s Solutions Manual, .pearsonhighered.com/mathstatsresources/.
Instructor’s Solutions Manual, by Zhiwei Zhu, Uni-
versity of Louisiana, Lafayette Business Insight Videos
This manual provides detailed, worked-out solu- This series of ten 5- to 7- minute videos, each about
tions to all of the book’s exercises. The Instruc- a well-known business and the challenges it faces,
tor’s Solutions Manual is available for download in focuses on statistical concepts as they pertain to
MyStatLab and from Pearson Education’s online the r eal world. The videos can be downloaded from
catalog (http://www.pearsonhighered.com/irc). within MyStatLab. Contact your Pearson represen-
tative for details.
Business Insight Video
Assessment Questions MyStatLab™ Online Course
Written to accompany the Business Insight Videos, (access code required)
these video-specific questions and answers can MyStatLab from Pearson is the world’s leading on-
be used for assessment or classroom discussion. line resource for teaching and learning statistics;
These are available for download from MyStatLab integrating interactive homework, assessment, and
or at www.pearsonhighered.com/irc. media in a flexible, easy-to-use format. MyStatLab is
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a course management system that helps individual NY, to demonstrate important statistical con-
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■■ MyStatLab can be implemented successfully in
eos will help students actually understand sta-
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user guide and assessment questions.
tifiable difference that integrated usage has on
student retention, subsequent success, and ■■ Business Insight Videos [for Business Statis-
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■■ 450 exercises in Getting Ready for Statistics
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course includes a full interactive online version of signed as a prerequisite to other assignments,
the accompanying textbook. if desired.
■■ Personalized Learning: MyStatLab’s personal-

■■ 1000 exercises in the Conceptual Question Li-
ized homework, and adaptive and companion brary require students to apply their statistical
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The homework and practice exercises in MyStat- ily analyze data sets from exercises and the text.
Lab align with the exercises in the textbook, and In addition, MyStatLab includes access to www
most regenerate algorithmically to give students .statcrunch.com, a vibrant online community where
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eText clips for extra help at point-of-use. ■■ Statistical Software, Support and Integration:
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drew Vickers takes to the streets of Brooklyn,
www.mystatlab.com

MathXL® for Statistics Online eos accompanying texts with copyright 2009 and
Course (access code required) later have closed captioning.
MathXL® is the homework and assessment engine ■■ More information on this functionality is avail-
that runs MyStatLab. (MyStatLab is MathXL plus a able at http://mystatlab.com/accessibility.
learning management system.)
And, MyStatLab comes from an experienced partner
With MathXL for Statistics, instructors can: with educational expertise and an eye on the future.
■■ Create, edit, and assign online homework and ■■ Knowing that you are using a Pearson product
tests using algorithmically generated exercises means knowing that you are using quality content.
correlated at the objective level to the textbook. That means that our eTexts are accurate and our
■■ Create and assign their own online exercises and assessment tools work. It means we are commit-
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■■ Maintain records of all student work, tracked in ■■ Whether you are just getting started with
MathXL’s online gradebook. MyStatLab, or have a question along the way, we’re
here to help you learn about our technologies and
With MathXL for Statistics, students can: how to incorporate them into your course.
■■ Take chapter tests in MathXL and receive person- To learn more about how MyStatLab combines prov-
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work assignments based on their test results. visit www.mystatlab.com or contact your Pearson
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directly to tutorial exercises for the objectives
they need to study. PowerPoint Lecture Slides
■■ Students can also access supplemental anima- PowerPoint Lecture Slides provide an outline for
tions directly from selected exercises. use in a lecture setting, presenting definitions, key
■■ Knowing that students often use external statisti- concepts, and figures from the text. These slides
cal software, we make it easy to copy our data are available within MyStatLab or at www.pearson-
sets, both from the eText and the MyStatLab highered.com/irc.
questions, into software like StatCrunch™, Minitab,
Excel and more.
StatCrunch
StatCrunch is powerful Web-based statistical soft-
MathXL for Statistics is available to qualified
ware that allows users to perform complex analyses,
adopters. For more information, visit our Web
share data sets, and generate compelling reports of
site at www.mathxl.com, or contact your Pearson
their data. The vibrant online community offers tens
representative.
of thousands of data sets for students to analyze.
■■ Collect. Users can upload their own data to Stat-
MyStatLab Accessibility Crunch or search a large library of publicly shared
■■ MyStatLab is compatible with the JAWS screen data sets, spanning almost any topic of interest.
reader, and enables multiple-choice, fill-in-the- Also, an online survey tool allows users to quickly
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for export to enrich reports with visual represen- and Minitab Express available ensures students can
tations of data. use the software for the duration of their course.
■■ Communicate. Reporting options help users cre- (ISBN-10: 0-13-445640-8; ISBN-13: 978-0-13-445640-9)
ate a wide variety of visually appealing represen-
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version of JMP desktop statistical discovery soft-
MyStatLab and StatCrunch is available by itself to
ware from SAS Institute, Inc., and is available for
qualified adopters. For more information, visit our
bundling with the text. Check with your Pearson
Web site at www.StatCrunch.com, or contact your
sales representative for order information. (ISBN-
Pearson representative.
10: 0-13-467979-2; ISBN-13: 978-0-13-467979-2)
XLSTAT™ for Pearson

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INDEX OF APPLICATIONS
CO ∙ Chapter Opener; IE ∙ In-Text Example; WT ∙ What Do You Think?; 4M ∙ Motivation, Method, Mechanics, Message;
P ∙ Pitfalls; BP ∙ Best Practices; AE ∙ Analytics in Excel; AD ∙ About the Data; BTM ∙ Behind the Math; TAI ∙ Think About It;
YDI ∙ You Do It; SA ∙ Statistics in Action; QT ∙ Questions for Thought
Accounting Dealer Earnings per Day (TAI) 266
Door Seam of a Vehicle (YDI) 359
Accounting Firm Filing Tax Forms (TAI) 295
Fatal Roll-Over Accidents (4M) 35–36; (AE) 40–41
Accounting Procedures (TAI) 332
Favorite Car Color (TAI) 103
Auditing a Business (4M) 178
Fuel Consumption in Cars (CO) 528; (IE) 529–538
Auditor Checking Transactions (WT) 368
Leasing Cars (4M) 390
Auditor Comparing Billable Invoices (TAI) 728
Male Drivers Involved in Serious Accidents (YDI) 296
Budget Allocation of a New Business (4M) 701–702
Motor Shafts in Automobile Engines (YDI) 359
Cost Accounting (4M) 139
Predicting Sales of New Cars (4M) 775–778; (AE) 792–793
Research and Development Expenses (YDI) 525, 593, 626, 663,
Price of New Cars (WT) 632
699, 732
Pricing of a Car (IE) 7–9
Rated Highway Gasoline Mileage (YDI) 77
Advertising Stopping Distances (YDI) 765
Advertising Among Internet Hosts (CO) 83; (IE) 80–83, 180–185; Trade in Asian Models (TAI) 44
(WT) 183 Trade in Domestic Models (TAI) 44
Advertising and Sales (IE) 559–561; (TAI) 591 Used Cars (WT) 14; (TAI) 76; (YDI) 449, 553–554
Advertising Firm Renewing Contract (TAI) 175
App advertising 187–190 Banking
Direct Mail Advertising (4M) 418
Adjustable Rate Mortgage (TAI) 74
Display Space (YDI) 553
ATM (YDI) 221
Evaluating a Promotion (4M) 435–436
Bank Collecting Data on Customers (TAI) 23, 24
Financial Advisor (YDI) 804
Banks Compete by Adding Special Services (YDI) 418
Judging the Credibility of Advertisements (4M) 751–754; (AE)
Basel II Standards for Banking (TAI) 386–387
756–758
Check Fees (TAI) 23
Monthly Sales and Advertising (P) 513
Credit Card Offer (CO) 362; (IE) 363, 366–367, 370–371, 374, 409
New Advertising Program (TAI) 449
Credit Card Profit Earned from a Customer (IE) 375–376
Pharmaceutical Advertising (CO) 251–251
Credit Cards (IE) 372; (AE) 472–473; (4M) 527
Priming in Advertising (4M) 723–725
Credit Risk (IE) 185
Promotion Response (4M) 389–390
Direct Deposits for Employees (TAI) 331
Television Advertising (TAI) 102
Federal Regulators Requiring Bank to Maintain Cash Reserves
Television Commercials (4M) 403; (AE) 411; (TAI) 416
(IE) 373
Loan Approval (IE) 161; (WT) 166
Agriculture Loan Balances (TAI) 74
Blood Sample from Cattle (WT) 319 Loan Defaults (YDI) 267–268
Dairy Farming (YDI) 267 Manager Tracking Bank Transactions (YDI) 267
Food-Safety Inspectors Visiting Dairy Farms (TAI) 331 Mortgage Loan Defaults (WT) 161–161
Grain Produced per Acre (CO) 736 On Time Loan Repayment (IE) 166–167
Wheat Trials (IE) 737–742, 744–754; (TAI) 763 Profit for a Bank (IE) 374–375
Size of Credit Card Transactions (IE) 321–322
Subprime Mortgages (4M) 646–650; (AE) 651–653
Automotive
Auto Dealer Attending Car Auctions (TAI) 592 Business (General)
Residual Car Values (4M) 665
Base Price and Horsepower of Cars (YDI) 525–526, 593, 627, Auto Dealer (TAI) 173
663–664, 699–700, 732–733 Bookstore (YD I) 804
Buying Tires at an Auto Service Center (WT) 205; (IE) 212 Catalog Sales Companies (TAI) 387
Car Theft (4M) 86–88; (AE) 98 Clothing Buyer for a Chain of Department Stores (TAI) 386
Cars in 1989 (4M) 555 Company Free Giveaways (IE) 207–208
Customer Options When Ordering a New Car (YDI) 198 Company Stocking Shelves in Supermarkets (YDI) 416, 422
xxi

xxii INDEX OF APPLICATIONS
Customer Focus (4M) 19 Convenience Store Shopper Choosing Food (TAI) 173; (WT)
Data-driven Culture (TAI) 45 231–232
Display Space (TAI) 765 Cost of Diamonds (IE) 271–272, 499, 503–504; (YDI) 730
Employee Absences (YDI) 48 Customer Preferences of a New Product (TAI) 102
Employee Drug Testing (TAI) 197–198 Customer Rating a Power Tool (TAI) 591
Fast-Food Restaurant Chains (YDI) 176, 177; (WT) 253 Customer Satisfaction with Calls to Customer Service (CO) 156;
Forecasting Profits (4M) 787–790; (AE) 794–795 (IE) 157–159; (BP) 169; (TAI) 172–173; (YDI) 175, 200
Gross Profit (YDI) 804 Diamond Ring Prices (YDI) 523–524, 592, 625
Growth Industries (4M) 49–50 Drive Preferences (YDI) 135
Large Company Correlation (IE) 126–127 Emerald Diamonds (YDI) 730
Mail-Order Catalog (TAI) 74 Estimating Consumption (4M) 504–506; (AE) 514–516
Multinational Retail Company (TAI) 523 Gasoline Prices (4M) 805–806
Optimal Pricing (4M) 543–545; (AE) 546–548; (BTM) 550 Gasoline Sales (YDI) 104
Price and Weights of Diamonds (WT) 114; (TAI) 134, 591; Gold Chain Prices (YDI) 661, 698
(CO) 498; (IE) 499–504, 507–509, 529, 576 Guest Satisfaction (4M) 332
Price Scanners at Check-Out Registers (TAI) 76 Lease Costs (4M) 511–512; (AE) 517–518
Reams of Paper Used in an Office (YDI) 220 Pant Choices at a Clothing Store (TAI) 173
Repairing an Office Machine (YDI) 221 Purchasing Habits (TAI) 45
Restaurant Chain Choosing a Location (CO) 630 Rating Hotel Chains (TAI) 23
Revenue Generated by Individual Sales Representatives (TAI) Spending at a Convenience Store (TAI) 45; (YDI) 524, 592,
727–728 625–626, 661–662, 698, 730
Sales by Day of the Week (TAI) 74
Shopping Mall Environment (TAI) 74 Demographics
Start-Up Company (TAI) 24, 48
Supermarket Scanner Data (4M) 200 Ages of Shoppers (TAI) 75
Technology Businesses Moving Corporate Headquarters near a Heights of Students (TAI) 74
Mall (WT) 639 Number of Children of Shoppers in a Toy Store (TAI) 75
Value of New Orders for Computers and Electronics (WT) 772
Women-Owned Businesses (YDI) 48 Distribution and Operations Management
Assembly Line Production (TAI) 358
Company Names Book Shipments to University Bookstores (YDI) 388
Apple (TAI) 45 Cost of Building Cars at Plants (TAI) 728
Amazon (CO) 26; (IE) 27, 32, 38; (P) 40 Customized Milling Operation (TAI) 523
Bike Addicts (CO) 10; (IE) 12, 14, 17, 22 Delivery Stops for a Freight Company (YDI) 247
Dell Revenue and Inventories (TAI) 800–801 Efficiency of Automated Factories (TAI) 728
Facebook 176 Forecasting Inventory Levels at Wal-Mart (YDI) 803, 804
Ford (WT) 326 Importer of Electronic Goods (YDI) 417
Intel (IE) 772 Imports (YDI) 803–804
L.L. Bean (TAI) 387 Maintenance Staff of a Large Office Building (YDI) 220
Levi Strauss (IE) 18 Managing Inventories (SA) 491–493
Lockheed Martin (IE) 35 Number of Employees and Items Produced (TAI) 134
Netflix (TAI) 44–45 Operating Margin of a National Motel Chain (TAI) 661
Target (CO) 10; (4M) 125; (YDI) 552–553 Overnight Shipping Firm (YDI) 763–764
Wal-Mart (CO) 10, 703; (4M) 451–452; (IE) 15, 17, 18, 125, 151, Package Delivery Service and Fuel Costs (TAI) 523
320, 703, 715; (SA) 491; (YDI) 552, 804 Packages Processed by Federal Express (TAI) 75
Packaging Types (SA) 491–495; (QT) 495–496
Performance of Two Shipping Services (IE) 89–90
Construction
Planning Operating Costs (4M) 249–250
City Building a New Public Parking Garage (YDI) 387 Production Costs (YDI) 524–525, 592–593, 626, 662, 698, 731
Construction Estimates (4M) 240–241; (AE) 242 Production Line Filling Bottles (TAI) 358
Construction Firm Bidding on a Contract (YDI) 219, 248 Production Time and Number of Units (WT) 505–506
Contractor Building Homes in a Suburban Development (TAI) Seasonal Component of Computer Shipments (IE) 770–771
295 Shipping Companies (YDI) 450
Contractor Replaces Windows and Siding in Suburban Homes Shipping Computer Systems (TAI) 103
(WT) 639, 643 State of a Production Line (IE) 340–343, 345–346
Cost of Building an Elementary School (TAI) 523 Value of Shipments of Computers and Electronics (CO) 768; (IE)
Housing Permits and Construction (YDI) 804–805 770–771, 773–775, 778–784; (TAI) 800
Kitchen Remodeling (TAI) 246 Windows Shipped Daily (IE) 212–213
Wine Exports (IE) 33–34
Consumers
E-Commerce
Bargain on Blouses (YDI) 199
Buying a Laptop (YDI) 176 A/B Testing of Web Site Design (IE) 428–429
Buying Running Shoes (TAI) 174 Click fraud (YDI) 389
Cell Phone Subscribers (4M) 614–615; (AE) 620–621; (YDI) 802 Filtering Junk Mail (4M) 193–194; (CO) 391; (IE) 392–393, 402;
Choices for Paint Colors and Finishes at a Hardware Store (TAI) (TAI) 416
103–104 Internet Ad Spending (CO) 26

INDEX OF APPLICATIONS xxiii
Internet Browsers (YDI) 49 Finance and Investments

Internet Hosts (IE) 28–30, 32; (P) 40
Apple Stock (YDI) 222, 526–527, 594, 628, 665, 701
Monitoring an E-mail system (4M) 360
Bond Ratings (TAI) 103
Recipe Source (IE) 33
Calendar Effects on Stocks (4M) 767
Web Purchases (4M) 50; (TAI) 266, 416
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CO) 667; (IE) 668–669; (TAI) 697;
Web Hits (YDI) 360; (AE) 474–476
(4M) 594–595
Web Site Monitoring the Number of Customer Visits (TAI)
Cash or Credit Card (YDI) 137, 268
762–763
Climate Change (4M) 577–580; (AE) 583–586
Web Site of a Photo Processor (TAI) 359
Comparing Returns on Investments (4M) 406–408
Web Site to Take Photography Lessons (TAI) 799
Continuous Compound Interest (BTM) 489
Web Site Visitors Clicking on an Ad (TAI) 174
Credit Rating Agency (TAI) 173
Credit Risk (4M) 766–767
Economics Credit Scores (4M) 79, 223
Consumer Sentiment and Inflation (TAI) 134 Day Trading (CO) 202; (WT) 214
Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate (IE) 229, 374 Defaults on Corporate Bonds (SA) 485
Economic Time Series (4M) 24 Disney Stock (YDI) 222
Estimating the Rise of Prices (4M) 324–326 Disposable Income and Household Credit Debt (TAI) 696
Exchange Rate (YDI) 220, 221; (4M) 229–230 Enron Stock Prices (SA) 140–145
Expectations for the Economy (IE) 485 Exxon Stock (YDI) 802
Forecasting Unemployment (4M) 784–787; (AE) 793–794 Familiar Stock (YDI) 78
Gross Domestic Product (IE) 394–395 FICO Score (YDI) 105
Housing and Stocks (YDI) 135 Financial Ratios (4M) 78
Macro Economics (YDI) 137–138 Fraud Detection (4M) 201; (AE) 473–474
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (TAI) General Motors Stock Return (TAI) 294
133; (YDI) 526, 593, 627; (IE) 394 Hedge Funds (YDI) 296
Seasonally Adjusted Civilian Unemployment Rate (YDI) 802 High-Frequency Data (4M) 595
U.S. Gross National Product (TAI) 799 Historical Monthly Gross Returns of Stocks and Treasury Bills
(SA) 304–305
Education Holdings of U.S. Treasury Bonds (TAI) 44
Household Credit Market Debt (TAI) 799–800
Annual Tuition of Undergraduate Business Schools (TAI) 76–77 Household Incomes (TAI) 74, 75; (4M) 297
College Attended by CEOs (TAI) 46 IBM Stock (IE) 206, 208–209, 225–227, 230–231, 233–234,
College Graduate Debt (TAI) 198 236–238; (AE) 411–412; (AD) 217, 244–245
Education and Income (CO) 179 Investing in Stock (YDI) 219
High/Scope Perry Preschool Project (YDI) 389 Investment Risk (SA) 298
Letter Grades (IE) 39 IRA (TAI) 23
Multiple Choice Quiz (YDI) 176 Loan Status (TAI) 102
Public College Tuition (WT) 65 McDonalds Stock (IE) 214
SAT and Normality (4M) 277–279; (AE) 288 Microsoft Stock (IE) 225–227, 230–231, 233–234, 237, 239; (AD)
SAT Scores (TAI) 294 244–245
Test Scores (IE) 66 Monthly Prices of Shares in JCPenny (YDI) 802–803
Normality of Stock Returns (4M) 296–297
Energy Pfizer Stock (QT) 146–147
Quality Control of Finance Data (4M) 360–361
Annual Use of Natural Gas per Household (CO) 109; (WT) 120;
Real Money (4M) 249
(IE) 120–121
Sony Stock (IE) 668–678; (TAI) 697
Daylight Savings Time and Reducing Energy Consumption (TAI)
Startup Technology Companies (YDI) 268
449
Stock Exchanges (CO) 224
Electricity Supplied to Residences (TAI) 294
Stock Market (IE) 66, 271–272, 275, 303; (4M) 138; (TAI) 591
Energy Policy Act (TAI) 76
Stock Returns (SA) 142–145
Heating Degree Days (IE) 110–117, 121–122
Student Budget (YDI) 247
Lighting Efficiency (TAI) 44
Student Loan Debt (TAI) 198
Natural Gas and Electricity Use (YDI) 248
Tech Stocks (YDI) 78
Steel Mill Monitoring Energy Costs (TAI) 697
Value at Risk (4M) 281–282; (AE) 289; (YDI) 295–296; (SA) 145
U.S. Department of Energy (IE) 18, 130
Whole Stock Market and S&P 500 (TAI) 696
Environment
Food/Drink
Arctic Ice (YDI) 802
Artificial Sweetener (YDI) 47–48, 763
Carbon Dioxide Emissions (YDI) 138–139
Bread Volume (YDI) 764–765
Hurricane Bond (YDI) 296
Chocolate Snacks (YDI) 48–49
Hurricane Katrina (IE) 4, 5, 6–7
Fast Food Restaurant Customers (YDI) 247
January Average Temperatures (CO) 109
Food and Drug Administration Vetoing Name Choices
Polluting a Local River System (TAI) 415
(YDI) 268
Temperature (IE) 13
Frozen Food Package Weight (IE) 347–348
Weather at a Beachside Vacation Resort (TAI) 174
Gourmet Steaks (TAI) 295
Weather Forecasts (4M) 628–629; (YDI) 664, 700
Low-Calorie Sports Drink (YDI) 417

xxiv INDEX OF APPLICATIONS
M&Ms (IE) 58; (AE) 69; (TAI) 74; (YDI) 175; (SA) 306–309; Insurance Salesman (YDI) 221
(4M) 55–56 Life Insurance Benefits (IE) 122–123
Package Weights of M&Ms (SA) 310–311; (QT) 312 Selling Life and Auto Insurance (YDI) 247
Take-Out Food at a Local Pizzeria (YDI) 388 Stock Market Insurance (CO) 270
Taste Test (TAI) 267, 331; (IE) 437
Weights of Cereal Boxes (IE) 280 Labor
Wine (YDI) 449, 553, 733
Absent Employees (YDI) 199
Assembly Line Workers Missing Work (YDI) 102
Games
Civilian Unemployment Rate (IE) 17
Arcade Game (TAI) 219 Days Employees Were Out Sick (WT) 56
Dice Game (SA) 298–304; (QT) 305 Predicting Employment (IE) 4–7
Fair Coin (TAI) 415; (WT) 253 Tornado insurance (WT) 253
Fair Game (TAI) 219 Worker Productivity (TAI) 523
Game Consoles (YDI) 49 Workforce by Gender (YDI) 199
Lotteries (TAI) 219
Lucky Ducks Carnival Game (WT) 208 Law
Online Poker (YDI) 247
Slot Machine (QT) 305 Jury Trial (TAI) 415–416
Video Game Previewed by Teenagers (TAI) 24 Law Firm (YDI) 219–220
Law Suit against Wal-Mart (CO) 703–704; (4M) 451–452
Government
Management
Political Candidate Anxious about the Outcome of an Election
(TAI) 386 Analyzing the Performance of a Fast-Food Chain (TAI) 658
Political Poll (4M) 379–380 Average Amount of a Purchase Order (WT) 371
Property Taxes (4M) 378–379; (AE) 381–382 Business Offering Free Fitness Center Membership to Staff
Sales Tax (TAI) 75, 133 (TAI) 448
Tax Audits (4M) 333 Employee Confidence in Senior Management (YDI) 389
Top Government Research Priority (YDI) 47 Management of a Chain of Hotels (YDI) 417
Travel Expenses for Staff (WT) 637 Management Presentation (WT) 33
Management Tracking Growth of Sales versus Number of Outlets
(TAI) 625
Human Resource Management/Personnel
Manager Predicting Sales (TAI) 799
Average Age of MBAs Hired (TAI) 386 Managers with an MBA (YDI) 198
Businesses Planning to Hire Additional Employees Managing a Process (4M) 167–168; (IE) 167–168
(TAI) 386 Project Management (4M) 222–223
Calls Handled at a Corporate Call Center (BP) 68 Sales Force Comparison (4M) 438–440; (TAI) 449
Correlation between Employee Absent from Year to Year (TAI) Supervising Experimental Projects (TAI) 267
133 Supervisors Tracking the Output of a Plant (TAI) 625
Dexterity Testing and Hiring People for a Factory Assembly Line
(YDI) 449 Manufacturing
Direct Sales Team (YDI) 199
Discrimination in Hiring (4M) 107 Appliance Assembly (YDI) 199
Employee Experience 175 Assembly Line (YDI) 175
Employee Testing (YDI) 135 Canadian Paper Manufacturer (TAI) 23
Employees Interested in Joining a Union (TAI) 697 Car Manufacturer (TAI) 23–24, 332
Employment in Four Industries (YDI) 105 Making M&Ms (4M) 55–56
Evaluating the Performance of New Hires (TAI) 658, 664 Printer Manufacturing (YDI) 220–221
Headhunters (YDI) 418 Tire Manufacturer (YDI) 296
Hiring (YDI) 526, 593–594, 627, 664, 700–701, 733
Hiring Engineering Graduates Who Speak a Foreign Language Marketing
(TAI) 173 Age, Income and Product Rating (TAI) 658–659, 697; (IE)
Home-Based Operator (YDI) 176 681–682
Outsourcing High-Level White Collar Jobs (YDI) 49 Analysis of Car Buyers (YDI) 418
Personality Test (TAI) 416 Coupons expiring 765
Predicting Success of Candidates (TAI) 658 Coupons Increasing Sales (TAI) 103
Reasons for Missing Work (TAI) 102 Launching a Product (IE) 214
Reducing Turnover Rates (4M) 419; (YDI) 450 Locating a New Store (4M) 125–126; (AE) 128
Sex Discrimination in the Workplace (4M) 451–452 Loyalty Programs (YDI) 417
Training Program (YDI) 248; (WT) 729–730; (TAI) 664 Mailing List (WT) 88, 94; (4M) 418
Market Analyst (TAI) 175
Insurance Market Segmentation (4M) 678–682; (AE) 688–691
Auto Insurance Premiums (TAI) 75 Market Share for Artificial Sweeteners (YDI) 47–48
Comparing Average Sales of an Insurance Company (YDI) 764 Marketing Courier Paks (TAI) 729
Cost of Covering Auto Accidents (TAI) 246 Marketing Team Designing a Promotional Web Page (WT) 431
Insurance Policies (TAI) 197, 198 Retailer Offering Scratch-Off Coupons (YDI) 176
Smartphone Sales (AE) 41; (YDI) 388–389

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its larva is called the Hill-grub and lives on the grass of pastures,
frequently doing great damage in hill-lands. The increase of this
moth seems to take place after the manner of an epidemic; a
considerable number of years may pass during which it is scarcely
seen, and it will then appear in unusual numbers in widely separated
localities. This moth lays a large number of eggs, and is not
completely nocturnal in habits; sometimes it may be seen on the
wing in great numbers in the hottest sunshine, and it has been
noticed that there is then a great disproportion of the sexes, the
females being ten or twenty times as numerous as the males. In
Australia, the Bugong moth, Agrotis spina, occurs in millions in
certain localities in Victoria: this moth hibernates as an imago, and it
formerly formed, in this instar, an important article of food with the
aborigines. The powers of increase of another Noctuid moth—
Erastria scitula—are of great value. Its habits have been described
by Rouzaud.[313] On the shores of the Mediterranean the larva of
this little moth lives on a Scale-Insect—Lecanium oleae—that infests
the peach; and as the moth may have as many as five generations in
a year, it commits laudable havoc with the pest. The larva is of
remarkable form, very short and convex, with small head, and only
two pairs of abdominal feet. The scale of the Lecanium is of larger
size than is usual in that group of Insects, and the young larva of the
Erastria buries itself, as soon as hatched, in one of the scales; it
destroys successively numerous scales, and after having undergone
several moults, it finds itself provided, for the first time, with a
spinneret, when, with the aid of its silk, it adds to and adapts a
Coccid scale, and thus forms a portable habitation; this it holds on to
by means of the pair of anal claspers, which are of unusual form.
The case is afterwards subjected to further alteration, so that it may
serve as a protection to the creature when it has changed to a pupa.
This moth is said to be free from the attacks of parasites, and if this
be the case it is probable that its increase is regulated by the fact
that when the creature becomes numerous it thus reduces the food
supply, so that its own numbers are afterwards in consequence
diminished.
One of the most remarkable genera of British Noctuidae is
Acronycta,[314] the larvae of which exhibit so much diversity that it
has been suggested that the genus should be dismembered and its
fragments treated as allied to several different divisions of moths.
There are many points of interest in connection with the natural
history of these Acronycta. A. psi and A. ridens are practically
indistinguishable as moths, though the larvae are easily separated:
the former species is said to be destroyed to an amazing extent by
parasites, yet it remains a common Insect. The genus Apatela is
very closely allied to Acronycta, and Harris says that "Apatela
signifies deceptive, and this name was probably given to the genus
because the caterpillars appear in the dress of Arctians and
Liparians, but produce true owlet-moths or Noctuas."[315] The
species of another British genus, Bryophila, possess the exceptional
habit of feeding on lichens. Some of the American group Erebides
are amongst the largest Insects, measuring seven or eight inches
across the expanded wings.
The Deltoid moths are frequently treated as a distinct family,

Deltoidae, perhaps chiefly because of their resemblance to
Pyralidae. At present, however, they are considered to be separated
from Noctuidae by no valid characters.
Fam. 38. Epicopeiidae.—The genus Epicopeia consists of only a

few moths, but they are amongst the most extraordinary known: at
first sight they would be declared without hesitation to be large
swallow-tail butterflies, and Hampson states that they "mimic" the
Papilios of the Polyxenus group. Very little is known about these
extremely rare Insects, but the larva is stated, on the authority of Mr.
Dudgeon, to surpass the moths themselves in extravagance; to be
covered with long processes of snow-white efflorescence, like wax,
exuded from the skin, and to "mimic" a colony of the larva of a
Homopterous Insect. Some ten species of this genus are known
from Java, India, China, and Japan. In this family there is said to be
a rudimentary frenulum, but it is doubtful whether the hairs that have
given rise to this definition really justify it.
Fam. 39. Uraniidae.—A family of small extent, including light-bodied
moths with ample wings and thread-like antennae; most of them
resemble Geometridae, but a few genera, Urania and Nyctalemon,
are like Swallow-tail butterflies and have similar habits. The
Madagascar moth, Chrysiridia madagascariensis (better known as
Urania rhipheus), is a most elegant and beautiful Insect, whose only
close allies (except an East African congener) are the tropical
American species of Urania, which were till recently treated as
undoubtedly congeneric with the Madagascar moth. The family
consists of but six genera and some sixty species. The question of
its affinities has given rise to much discussion, but on the whole it
would appear that these Insects are least ill-placed near Noctuidae.
[316] The larva of the South American genus Coronidia is in general
form like a Noctuid larva, and has the normal number of legs; it
possesses a few peculiar fleshy processes on the back. A
description of the larva of Chrysiridia madagascariensis has been
widely spread; but according to Camboué,[317] the account of the
metamorphoses, first given by Boisduval, is erroneous. The larva, it
appears, resembles in general form that of Coronidia, and has
sixteen feet; it is, however, armed with long, spatulate black hairs; it
changes to a pupa in a cocoon of open network.
Fig. 206—Abdomen of Chrysiridia madagascariensis. A, Horizontal

section showing the lower part of the male abdomen: 1, first
segment; 2, spiracle of second segment; 4-8, posterior segments.
B, the abdomen seen from the side, with the segments numbered.
The section is that of an old, dried specimen.
In all the species of this family we have examined, we have noticed

the existence of a highly peculiar structure that seems hitherto to
have escaped observation. On each side of the second abdominal
segment there is an ear-like opening (usually much concealed by
overlapping scales), giving entrance to a chamber in the body; this
chamber extends to the middle line, being separated from its fellow
by only a thin partition. At its anterior and lateral part there is a
second vesicle-like chamber, formed by a delicate membrane that
extends as far forwards as the base of the abdomen. There can be
little doubt that this is part of some kind of organ of sense, though it
is much larger than is usual with Insect sense-organs.
Fam. 40. Epiplemidae.—Under this name Hampson has assembled

certain Geometroid moths, some of them placed previously in
Chalcosiidae, some in Geometridae. They form a varied group,
apparently closely allied to Uraniidae, and having a similar peculiar
sense-organ; but are distinguished by the presence of a frenulum.
The larva seems to be like that of Uraniidae.
Fam. 41. Pyralidae.—This division is to be considered rather as a

group of families than as a family; it includes a very large number of
small or moderate-sized moths of fragile structure, frequently having
long legs; antennae simple, only in a few cases pectinate;
distinguished from Noctuidae and all the other extensive divisions of
moths by the peculiar course of the costal nervure of the hind wing,
which either keeps, in the middle of its course, near to the sub-costal
or actually unites with it, subsequently again separating. Members of
the Pyralidae are found in all lands; in Britain we have about 150
species. The larvae are usually nearly bare, with only short,
scattered setae, and little coloration; they have most varied habits,
are fond of concealment, and are very lively and abrupt in
movement, wriggling backwards as well as forwards, when
disturbed; a cocoon is formed for the metamorphosis.
The family as a whole consists of Insects of unattractive appearance,

although it contains some very elegant and interesting moths and
numerous forms of structural interest. In the genus Thiridopteryx little
transparent spaces on the wings occur as a character peculiar to the
males; the spaces are correlative with a greater or less derangement
of the wing-nervures. In some other forms there is a remarkable
retinaculum, consisting of large scales, and this, too, is connected
with a distortion of the wing-nervures. The Pyralidae—Pyralites of
Ragonot,[318] Pyralidina of Meyrick—have recently been revised by
two naturalists of distinction almost simultaneously; unfortunately
their results are discrepant, Meyrick including Pterophoridae and
Orneodidae, and yet admitting in all only eight families; while
Ragonot does not include the two groups named, but defines
seventeen tribes of the two families—Pyralidae and Crambidae—
that he admits.
The Pyraustidae of Meyrick is an enormous division including the

Hydrocampidae and Scopariidae of many authors, as well as the
Pyraustinae proper and a small group of Ragonot's, the
Homophysinae. The division Scopariinae is believed to be amongst
the "most ancient" of Lepidoptera; the food of the larvae consists of
moss and lichens. This group is widely distributed, being richly
represented in Australia, New Zealand, and the Hawaiian Islands, as
well as in Europe; and probably really occurs wherever their food-
plants exist accompanied by a tolerable climate. The statistics of the
distribution of this group, so far as at present known, have been
furnished by Mr. Meyrick, as follows:—European region, about 25
species; Madeira, 3; St. Helena, 6; South Africa, 2 or 3; India, 9;
Malayan region, 3 or 4; Australia, 24; New Zealand, 64; Hawaiian
Islands, 50; North America, 17 (one of them European); South
America, 10. The Hydrocampinae—the China-marks—are of great
interest, as being amongst the few forms of Lepidoptera adapted for
aquatic life. It is believed that all their larvae are aquatic, though of
only a few is there much known. The diversity amongst these forms
is of considerable interest. The habits of Hydrocampa nymphaeata
were long since described by Réaumur, and have more recently
been dealt with by Buckler,[319] W. Müller[320] and Prof. Miall.[321]
Although there are some discrepancies in their accounts, due we
believe to the observations being made at different periods of the life
and under somewhat different circumstances, yet the account given
by Müller is we feel no doubt substantially correct. The larvae when
hatched mine in the leaves of a water-plant for a short time—thirty
hours to three days according to Buckler—and are completely
surrounded by water, which penetrates freely into their burrows; at
this period the caterpillar breathes by its skin, the spiracles being
very small, and the tubes leading from them closed and functionless.
After this brief period of mining life, the larva moults and then
constructs a habitation by cutting a piece out of a leaf, and fastening
it to the under side of another leaf; it is thus provided with a
habitation, but it is one into which the water freely enters, and the
respiratory apparatus remains in the state we have described. The
Insect passes through several moults, and then hibernates in the
water. On its revival in the spring a change occurs, and the larva
constructs a portable, or we should rather say free, habitation out of
two large pieces of leaf of lens-shape, fastened together at the
edges; but the larva has some method of managing matters so that
the water can be kept out of this house; thus the creature lives in air
though immersed in the water. A correlative change occurs in the
structure of the skin and tracheal system. The former becomes
studded with prominent points that help to maintain a coat of air
round the Insect, like dry velvet immersed in water; the spiracles are
larger than they were, and they and the tracheal tubes are open.
One or two moults take place and the creature then pupates. There
is a good deal of discrepancy in the accounts of this period, and it
seems probable that the pupa is sometimes aerial, sometimes
aquatic. Buckler's account of the formation of the case shows that
the larva first cuts off, by an ingenious process, one piece of leaf,
leaving itself on this, as on a raft; this it guides to a leaf suitable for a
second piece, gets the raft underneath, and fastens it with silk to the
upper portion, and then severs this, leaving the construction free;
afterwards the larva goes through a curious process of changing its
position and working at the two extremities of the case, apparently
with the object of making it all right as regards its capacity for
including air and keeping out water. He believes that Réaumur was
correct in his idea that the larva regulates the admission of air or of
water to the case in conformity with its needs for respiration. Müller
calls special attention to the great changes in habit and in the
structure of the integument during the life of this larva; but the reader
will gather from what we relate as to various terrestrial Lepidopterous
larvae, that these phenomena are not very dissimilar from what
frequently take place in the latter; a change of habits at some
particular moult, accompanied by great changes in the integument,
and even in the size of the stigmata, being of frequent occurrence.
The larva of Nymphula stagnata, a close ally of H. nymphaeata, has

aquatic habits of a somewhat similar but simpler nature; while N.
(Paraponyx) stratiotata is very different. This larva is provided with
eight rows of tufts of flexible branchiae, occupying the position of the
spots or setigerous warts usual in caterpillars, and reminding one of
the spines of certain butterfly-larvae, though they are undoubtedly
respiratory filaments. These caterpillars protect themselves by
forming silken webs or cases, or by adopting the case of some other
larva, and are in the habit of holding on by the anal claspers, and
rapidly and energetically moving the anterior parts of the body in an
undulating fashion. The spiracles exist, but are functionless. The
pupa lives under water, and has no branchiae; but three of the pairs
of abdominal spiracles are open, and project from the body. Müller
informs us that in a Brazilian Paraponyx these three pairs of
spiracles were already large in the larva, though the other pairs were
very small, or absent. He considers that the moth of this species
descends beneath the water of a rapid stream, and fastens its eggs
on the stems of plants therein. Cataclysta lemnata lives in a case of
silk with leaves of duckweed attached to it, or in a piece of a hollow
stem of some aquatic plant; it is believed to breathe, like H.
nymphaeata, at first by the integument and subsequently by open
stigmata; but particulars as to how it obtains the requisite air-supply
are not forthcoming: the aquatic pupa breathes by three large
abdominal spiracles like Paraponyx.
Musotimidae[322] is a small group of two or three genera found in

Australia and Polynesia; and the Tineodidae also consist of only two
Australian genera. Siculodidae is likewise a small Antarctic group,
placed by Meyrick in Pyralidina; but his view is not accepted by
Snellen and Ragonot. Epipaschiinae (formerly treated as a separate
family) and Endotrichiinae are, according to Meyrick, subdivisions of
the family Pyralidae proper, an enormous group of more than 100
genera. The Chrysauginae consist chiefly of American forms, and
have not been treated by Meyrick; some of this group have been
classed with Tortricidae or Deltoidae on account of the undulating
costa of the front wings and the long, peculiar palpi. The Galleriidae
are a small group including Insects that live in bees'-nests, and feed
on the wax etc.; others eat seeds, or dried vegetable substances.
Three out of our five British species of this family occur (usually
gregariously) in bee-hives, and have the peculiar habit of spinning
their cocoons together. The mass of common cocoons formed in this
manner by Aphomia sociella is remarkably tough and enduring;
portions of it are not infrequently picked up, and as the cocoons are
of a peculiar tubular form their nature gives rise to some perplexity.
Phycitidae[323] is another very large assemblage of Insects with very

diverse habits. The frenulum and retinaculum are similarly formed in
the two sexes: the males frequently have the basal-joint of the
antennae swollen; hence the term "Knot-horns" applied by collectors
to these moths. The larvae of the species of Ephestia infest
groceries, and most children have become to a slight extent
acquainted with them amongst dried figs; that of E. kuehniella has
become very injurious in flour-mills, its enormous increase being due
in all probability to the fact that the favourable and equable
temperature maintained in the mills promotes a rapid succession of
generations, so that the Insect may increase to such an extent as to
entirely block the machinery. Many of the Phycitidae feed on the bark
of trees in galleries or tunnels constructed partially of silk. A very
peculiar modification of this habit in Cecidipta excoecaria has been
described by Berg.[324] In Argentina this Insect takes possession of
the galls formed by a Chermes on Excoecaria biglandulosa, a
Euphorbiaceous tree. The female moth lays an egg on a gall, and
the resulting larva bores into the gall and nourishes itself on the
interior till all is eaten except a thin external coat; the caterpillar then
pupates in this chamber. The galls vary in size and shape, and the
larva displays much constructive ability in adapting its home to its
needs by the addition of tubes of silk or by other modes. Sometimes
the amount of food furnished by the interior of the gall is not
sufficient; the larva, in such cases, resorts to the leaves of the plant
for a supplement, but does not eat them in the usual manner of a
caterpillar; it cuts off and carries a leaf to the entrance of its abode,
fastens the leaf there with silk, and then itself entering, feeds, from
the interior, on the food it has thus acquired. Another Phycitid,
Dakruma coccidivora is very beneficial in North America by eating
large Scale-Insects of the Lecanium group, somewhat after the
fashion of Erastria scitula; it does not construct a case, but shelters
itself when walking from one scale to another by means of silken
tubes; it suffers from the attacks of parasites.[325] Oxychirotinae, an
Australian group, is interesting because, according to Meyrick, it
possesses forms connecting the Pterophoridae with the more normal
Pyralids.
Crambidae, or Grass-moths, are amongst the most abundant

Lepidoptera in this country, as they include the little pale moths that
fly for short distances amongst the grass of lawns and pastures; they
fold their wings tightly to their body, and have a head pointed in front,
in consequence of the form and direction of the palpi. They sit in an
upright position on the stems of grass, and it has been said that this
is done because then they are not conspicuous. Perhaps: but it
would be a somewhat difficult acrobatic performance to sit with six
legs across a stem of grass. The larvae are feeders on grass, and
construct silken tunnels about the roots at or near the surface. The
Ancylolominae are included in Crambidae by Meyrick and Hampson.
Schoenobiinae[326] are included by Meyrick in Pyraustidae, but this
view appears not to meet with acceptance, and the group is more
usually associated with the Crambidae. Most writers place the
anomalous genus Acentropus as a separate tribe, but it is
associated by both Meyrick and Hampson with Schoenobius. This
Insect is apparently the most completely aquatic of all the
Lepidoptera, and was for long associated with the Trichoptera in
consequence of its habits and of the scaling of the wings being of a
very inferior kind. The males may sometimes be found in large
numbers fluttering over the surface of shallow, but large, bodies of
water; the females are rarely seen, and in some cases have no
wings, or have these organs so small as to be useless. The female,
it would appear, comes quite to the surface for coupling, and then
takes the male beneath the water. The larvae have the usual number
of Lepidopterous feet, and apparently feed on the leaves of plants
below water just as Lepidopterous larvae ordinarily do in the air.[327]
They have no trace of gills, and their mode of respiration is unknown.
A great deal has been written about these Insects, but really very
little is known. They are abundant, though local in many parts of
North and Central Europe; some of the females have, as we have
said, abbreviated wings, but how many species there are, and
whether the modifications existing in the development of the wings
are constant in one species or locality, are unknown as yet.
Fam. 42. Pterophoridae[328] (Plume-moths).—Elegant Insects of

small size, usually with the wings divided (after the fashion of a hand
into fingers) so as to form feathers: the extent of this division is
diverse, but the hind wings are more completely divided than the
front, which indeed are sometimes almost entire. The group is
placed by Meyrick in his Pyralidina, but there are many
entomologists who look on it as distinct. It consists of two sub-
families, Agdistinae and Pterophorinae, that have been treated as
families by many entomologists. The Agdistinae (of which we have a
British representative of the only genus Agdistes) have the wings
undivided. Pterophorinae have the hind wings trifid or (rarely)
quadrifid, the front wings bifid or (rarely) trifid. The larvae of the
Pterophorinae are different from those of Pyralidae, being slow in
movement and of heavy form, covered with hair and living exposed
on leaves; the pupae are highly remarkable, being soft, coloured
somewhat like the larvae, and also hairy like the larvae, and are
attached somewhat after the manner of butterfly-pupae by the
cremaster: but in some cases there is a slight cocoon. There is,
however, much variety in the larval and pupal habits of the
Pterophoridae, many having habits of concealment of divers kinds.
We have thirty species of these lovely Plume-moths in Britain. The
family is widely distributed, and will probably prove numerous in
species when the small and delicate Insects existing in the tropics
are more appreciated by collectors.
Fam. 43. Alucitidae (Orneodidae of Meyrick and others).—The

genus Alucita includes the only moths that have the front and hind
wings divided each into six feathers. Species of it, though not
numerous, occur in various regions. The larva and pupa are less
anomalous than those of the Pterophoridae, though the imago is
more anomalous. The caterpillar of our British A. polydactyla feeds
on the flower-buds of honey-suckle, and forms a cocoon. The moth
with wings expanded is about an inch across, and is a lovely object.
It is not rare, though seldom numerous.
Fam. 44. Tortricidae.—Moths of small size, with a rather ample

wing area, with the wing-fringes never as long as the wings are wide
(long across), the hind wings without a pattern: the anterior nervure
on the hind wings is simply divergent from that next to it, and the
internal nervure, 1b, is very evidently forked at the base. The larvae
inhabit their food, which may be rolled up or twisted leaves, or the
interior of fruits and herbs, or galls, or even roots; they exhibit less
diversity than is usual in other large series of moths; all have the
normal complement of sixteen legs. This group is a very extensive
one, but is much neglected owing to the great difficulties attending its
study; it is not recognised in Hampson's Table of families given on
p. 370, being there merged in Tineidae. It appears, however, to be a
really natural group, and it is not desirable to merge it in the
sufficiently enormous assemblage of the Tineidae till this has been
shown to be necessary by the light of a greater knowledge of the
external anatomy than we possess at present. The term
Microlepidoptera is frequently met with in entomological literature,
and should, we think, be confined to the two series Tortricidae and
Tineidae. The Pterophoridae, and even the Pyralidae, have been,
and still sometimes are, included under this term, but at present it
seems best to limit its application as is here suggested.
Three great divisions are at present recognised; these were formerly
called by Meyrick,[329] Tortricidae, Grapholithidae, Conchylidae;
subsequently,[330] he has adopted the names Tortricidae,
Epiblemidae, Phaloniadae. Lord Walsingham, who has devoted a
great deal of time and study to the elucidation of this most difficult
group, has suggested[331] that another change is desirable, and if so
the nomenclature will be:—1. Tortricidae [or Tortricinae, according to
the view that may be taken as to the group being family or sub-
family]; 2. Phaloniidae [= the formerly used name, Conchylidae]; 3.
Olethreutidae [= the formerly used name Grapholithinae =
Epiblemidae, Meyr.]. We have upwards of 300 species in Britain,
nearly 200 of which belong to the last division. The name Tortricidae
refers to the habit the larvae of these moths possess of rolling up
leaves, or twisting and distorting shoots and buds.
The mode in which leaves and shoots are twisted and rolled by the
very small larvae has been much discussed and is probably the
result of two or three distinct causes:—1, the immediate operations
of the larva; 2, the contraction of silk when drying; 3, changes in the
mode of growth of the parts of the vegetable, resulting from the
interference of the caterpillar. The larvae of this family that live in
fruits are only too widely (we will not say well) known. Stainton gives
as the habitat of Epinotia funebrana, "larva frequent in plum-pies";
the caterpillar of Carpocapsa pomonella (the Codling-moth) mines in
apples and pears, and its ravages are known only too well in widely
distant parts of the world where fruit-trees of this kind are cultivated.
C. splendana lives in acorns and walnuts; C. juliana in Spanish
chestnuts. Two, if not more, larvae live in the seeds of
Euphorbiaceous plants, and have become notorious under the name
of jumping-beans, on account of the movements they cause. As
these latter show no trace externally of being inhabited, the
movements are supposed to be a mysterious property of the seed;
they are really due to its containing a large cavity, extending, in one
direction of the seed, nearly or quite from skin to skin; in this the
larva makes a movement sufficient to alter the point of equilibrium of
the quiescent seed, or as a free body to strike some part of it. The
exact nature of the movements of the larva have not, we believe,
been ascertained. There are, at least, two species of these Insects,
and two plants harbouring them, known in the United States and
Mexico, viz. Carpocapsa saltitans living in the seeds of Croton
colliguaja and Grapholitha sebastianiae living in the seeds of
Sebastiania bicapsularis.
Fam. 45. Tineidae.—Small moths with the labial palpi more flexible
and mobile than in other moths; usually separated and pointed. Hind
wings frequently with very long fringes, the wing itself being
proportionally reduced in size, and in consequence pointed at the tip.
Larvae very diverse, almost always with habits of concealment. The
series of forms included under this head is very numerous, the
British species alone mounting up to 700, while the total described
cannot be less than 4000. This number, however, must be but a
fragment of what exists, if Mr. Meyrick be correct in supposing that a
single one of the divisions of the family—Oecophoridae—comprises
2000 species in Australia and New Zealand alone.
Fig. 207—Diplosara lignivora (Gelechiides). Hawaiian Islands.
As the study of these Insects is attended with great difficulty on

account of their fragility and the minute size of the great majority, it is
not a matter for surprise that their classification is in a comparatively
rudimentary state. We shall not, therefore, deal with it here. Neither
can we attempt to give any idea of the extreme diversity in the
colours, forms, and attitudes of these small Insects. The one shown
in Fig. 207, is remarkable on account of the great accumulation of
scales on the wings and legs. As regards the pointed wings and the
long fringes, we may remark that it is probable that in many of these
small forms the wings are passive agents in locomotion; a similar
condition of the wings is found in other very minute Insects, e.g.
Thysanoptera and Trichopterygidae; in all these cases the
framework of the wings is nearly absent: in some forms of the
Tineidae, Opostega, e.g. the nervules are reduced to three or four in
each wing. The variety in habits is as great as that of the external
form, and the larvae exceed in diversity those of any other group of
Lepidoptera. No doubt a corresponding amount of diversity will be
discovered in the details of structure of the perfect Insects, the
anatomy of but few having been at present investigated. Tinea
pellionella has two very important peculiarities in its internal
anatomy: the testes consist of four round follicles on each side, and,
contrary to the condition generally prevalent in Lepidoptera, are not
brought together in a common capsule: the two groups are, however,
not quite free (as they are in Hepialus), but are connected by a loose
tracheal network. Even more remarkable is the fact also pointed out
by Cholodkovsky[332] that the adult Insect possesses only two
Malpighian tubes instead of six, the normal number in Lepidoptera;
in the larva there are, however, six elongate tubes. The group of
forms to which Tinea belongs is remarkable for the diversity and
exceptional character of the food-habits of the larvae; species
subsist on dried camel's dung, various kinds of clothes, furs, and
hair, and even about horns of deer and horses' hoofs: one species
has been found in abundance in the hair of a live sloth, Bradypus
cuculliger, under circumstances that render it possible that the larva
feeds on the creature's hair, though it may feed on minute vegetable
matter found in the hair. The larva of Tinea vastella is occasionally
found feeding on the horns of living antelopes. Several species of
Tineidae are known to devour Scale-Insects.
Lita solanella is notorious for the ravages it commits on stored

potatoes. Quite a number of species live on cryptogamic matter, or in
old wood; Oinophila v-flavum feeds on the mould on the walls of
cellars, and is reputed to be injurious by occasionally also attacking
the corks of bottles containing wine. Oecocecis guyonella is said to
be the cause of galls on Limoniastrum guyonianum, a plant that,
growing in the deserts to the south of Algeria, is a favourite food of
camels, and is frequently entirely covered with sand. The deposition
of an egg by this moth is believed by Guénée[333] to give rise to a
gall in which the larva is entirely enclosed (like the larvae of the gall-
flies). Of Clothes-moths there are at least three species widely
distributed. Trichophaga tapetzella is perhaps entitled to be
considered the Clothes-moth; its caterpillar not only feeds on
clothes, but spins webs and galleries amongst them. Tinea
pellionella is also very common; its larva lives in a portable case,
while that of the third species, Tineola biselliella, forms neither a
case nor definite galleries. We have found this the most destructive
of the three at Cambridge. Clothes or valuable furs may be
completely protected by wrapping them in good sound paper in such
a way that no crevices are left at the places where the edges of the
paper meet. Garments that have become infested may be entirely
cleared by free exposure to air and sunshine.
Two species of Tinea have been recorded as viviparous, viz. Tinea

vivipara in Australia, and an undetermined species in South America.
The species of the genus Solenobia—in which the female is
apterous—are frequently parthenogenetic. The group Taleporiidae,
to which this genus belongs, is by some classified with Psychidae, in
which family, as we have pointed out, one or two parthenogenetic
forms are also known.
The larvae of Tineidae, though they do not exhibit the remarkable

armature found in so many of the larger caterpillars, are exceedingly
diverse.[334] Some are entirely destitute of feet (Phyllocnistis).
Others are destitute of the thoracic legs; Nepticula is in this case, but
it is provided with an increased number of abdominal feet, in the
form of more or less imperfect ventral processes. Some mine in
leaves, others live in portable cases of various forms. Some are leaf-
miners during their early life, and subsequently change their habits
by constructing a portable case. The genus Coleophora affords
numerous instances of this mode of life; the habits of these case-
bearers exhibit considerable variety, and there are many points of
interest in their life-histories. Change of habit during the larval life
has already been alluded to as occurring in many Lepidoptera and is
nowhere more strikingly exemplified than in certain Tineidae. Meyrick
mentions the following case as occurring in an Australian Insect,
Nematobola orthotricha;[335] the larva, until two-thirds grown, is
without feet, and is almost colourless, and mines in the leaves of
Persoonia lanceolata; but when two-thirds grown it acquires sixteen
feet, changes colour, becoming very variegate, and feeds externally,
unprotected, on the leaves. The cases of the case-bearing Tineids
are usually of small size, and do not attract attention like those of
Psychidae. A very remarkable one was discovered by Mr. E. E.
Green in Ceylon, and was at first believed to be formed by a Caddis-
worm. It has now been ascertained that the Insect forming it is the
caterpillar of Pseudodoxia limulus, a Tineid moth of the group
Depressariidae;[336] the case is composed of minute fragments of
moss, sand, and lichens; the anterior end is dilated into a shield-like
hood that covers and protects the anterior parts of the larva when
feeding; the food is mosses and lichens on rocks and trees. Before
pupating, the larva folds down the edges of the hood over the mouth
of the tube, like an envelope, fastening them with silk. The case is
fixed to the rock or other support and hangs there until the moth
appears.
Fig. 208—Pronuba synthetica. North America. A, Larva; B, C, pupa,

ventral and lateral aspects; D, female moth; E, head and part of
thorax of the female moth: a, labial palp; b, maxillary tentacle; c,
maxillary palp; d, proboscis; e, base of front leg. (After Riley.)
The family Prodoxidae consists of some Tineids, the larvae of which
feed in the pods and stems of the Yuccas of south-western North
America; they have the mouth of very unusual form (Fig. 208, E),
and some of them, by aid of this peculiar mouth, exhibit a
remarkable modification of instinct. The facts are chiefly known from
the observations of Riley[337] on Pronuba yuccasella, a moth living
on Yucca filamentosa; this plant has been introduced into our
gardens in this country, where it never, we believe, produces seed.
The Yuccas are not fitted for self-fertilisation or for fertilisation by
Insect agency of an ordinary kind. The progeny of the moth develops
in the pods of the plant, and as these cannot grow until the flowers
have been fertilised, the moth has the habit of fertilising the flowers
at the time she lays her egg in the part that is to develop into the
pod, and to be the food for her own progeny. The female moth first
visits the stamens, and collects, by the aid of the maxillae (which in
this sex are very remarkably formed),[338] a considerable mass of
pollen, which she holds by means of the peculiar maxillary tentacles;
she then lays an egg in the pistil, usually of some flower other than
that from which she has gathered the pollen; and after she has
accomplished this act she carefully applies the pollen she had
previously collected to the pistil, so as to secure the fertilisation of
the flower and the development of the pod.
The species of Prodoxus stand in a very peculiar relation to

Pronuba. They also live in Yuccas, and have habits similar to those
of Pronuba, with the important exception that, being destitute of the
requisite apparatus, they do not fertilise the Yucca-flowers, and are
thus dependent on Pronuba for the steps being taken that are
necessary for the rearing of the progeny of the two kinds of moth.
Hence the name of Yucca-moth has been bestowed on Pronuba,
and that of "bogus Yucca-moth" on the Prodoxus. The Pronuba we
figure is the largest and most remarkable species of the genus and
fertilises Yucca brevifolia; the larva is destitute of abdominal feet,
and in the pupa the spines on the back that exist in nearly all pupae
that live in stems are developed to an extraordinary extent. The
Yuccas do not flower every year, and the Prodoxidae have a
corresponding uncertainty as to their periods of appearance, passing
sometimes a year or two longer than usual in the pupal stage.
Fam. 46. Eriocephalidae.—This family has recently been proposed

for some of the moths formerly included in the genus Micropteryx.
[339] They are small, brilliant, metallic Insects, of diurnal habits, but
are very rarely seen on the wing, and it is doubtful whether they can
fly much. These little Insects are of peculiar interest, inasmuch as
they differ from the great majority of the Lepidoptera in at least two
very important points, viz. the structure of the wings and of the
mouth-parts. The mouth shows that we may consider that the
Lepidoptera belong to the mandibulate Insects, although in the great
majority of them the mandibles in the final instar are insignificant,
functionless structures, or are entirely absent, and although the
maxillae are so highly adapted for the tasting of sweets that it is
difficult to recognise in them the parts usually found in the maxilla of
mandibulate Insects.
Fig. 209.—Larva of Eriocephala calthella. (After Chapman.) A, Young

larva from side, × 50; B, portion of skin with a bulla or ball-like
appendage: C, abdominal foot of larva.
Eriocephala in both these respects connects the Lepidoptera with

Mandibulata: the mandibles have been shown by Walter[340] to be
fairly well developed; and the maxillae are not developed into a
proboscis, but have each two separate, differentiated—not elongated
—lobes, and an elongate, five-jointed, very flexible palpus. The
moths feed on pollen, and use their maxillae for the purpose,
somewhat in the style we have mentioned in Prodoxidae. The wings
have no frenulum, neither have they any shoulder, and they probably
function as separate organs instead of as a united pair on each side:
the modification of the anterior parts of the hind wing—whereby this
wing is reduced as a flying agent to the condition of a subordinate to
the front wing—does not here exist: the hind wing differs little from
the front wing in consequence of the parts in front of the cell being
well developed. There is a small jugum. These characters have led
Packard to suggest that the Eriocephalidae should be separated
from all other Lepidoptera to form a distinct sub-Order, Lepidoptera
Laciniata.[341] The wing-characters of Eriocephala are repeated—as
to their main features—in Hepialidae and Micropterygidae; but both
these groups differ from Eriocephala as to the structure of the
mouth-parts, and in their metamorphoses. Although Eriocephala
calthella is one of our most abundant moths, occurring in the spring
nearly everywhere, and being easily found on account of its habit of
sitting in buttercup-flowers, yet its metamorphoses were till recently
completely unknown. Dr. Chapman has, however, been able to give
us some information as to the habits and structure of the larvae, in
both of which points the creature is most interesting. The eggs and
young larvae are "quite unlike our ideas of a Lepidopterous Insect;"
the former have a snowy or mealy appearance, owing to a close
coating of minute rods standing vertically on the surface of the egg,
and often tipped with a small bulb. The larva lives amongst wet moss
and feeds on the growing parts thereof; it is not very similar to any
other Lepidopterous larva: Dr. Chapman suggests a similarity to the
Slug-worms (Limacodids), but Dyar is probably correct in thinking the
resemblances between the two are unimportant: the larva of
Eriocephala possesses three pairs of thoracic legs, and eight pairs of
abdominal appendages, placed on the segments immediately
following the thorax; on the under-surface of the ninth and tenth
abdominal segments there is a sucker, trifoliate in form; this is
probably really situate entirely on the tenth segment: the body bears
rows of ball-appendages, and the integument is beautifully
sculptured. The head is retractile and the antennae are longer than
is usual in caterpillars. This larva is profoundly different from other
Lepidopterous larvae inasmuch as the abdominal feet, or
appendages, are placed on different segments to what is customary,
and are of a different form. Unfortunately the pupa has not been
procured, but there is some reason for supposing that it will prove to
be more like that of Tineidae than like that of Micropterygidae.
The New Zealand genus Palaeomicra is only imperfectly known.
Meyrick considers it the "most ancient" Lepidopteron yet discovered;
and it would appear that its relations are with Eriocephala rather than
with Micropteryx. From information he has kindly given to us, we are
able to say that this moth possesses mandibles but no proboscis.
Fig. 210—Larva of Micropteryx sp. A, Ventral view of the larva,

magnified; B, the same, with setae unduly magnified. Britain.
Fam. 47. Micropterygidae.—Small moths of metallic colours,

without mandibles, with elongate maxillary palpi: without frenulum:
both wings with a complex system of wing-veins: on the hind wings
the area anterior to the cell is large, and traversed by three or four
elongate, parallel veins.
Fig. 211—Pupa of Micropteryx (semipurpurella?). A, Dorsal aspect; B,

C, D, views of head dissected off; B, profile; C, posterior, D,
anterior aspects; m, mandibles. Britain.
There are no mandibles, but there is a short, imperfect proboscis.

Larva (Fig. 210) without any legs, mining in leaves. The pupa (Fig.

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11 Probability Models for Counts 251

12 The Normal Probability Model 270

CASE: STATISTICS IN ACTION Managing Financial Risk 298

CASE: STATISTICS IN ACTION Modeling Sampling Variation 306

PART III Inference

14 Sampling Variation and Quality 334

15 Confidence Intervals 362

16 Statistical Tests 391

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16.4 Significance versus Importance 408

18 Inference for Counts 453

CASE: STATISTICS IN ACTION Rare Events 484

CASE: STATISTICS IN ACTION Data Mining Using Chi-Squared 491

PART IV Regression Models

20 Curved Patterns 528

21 The Simple Regression Model 557

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22 Regression Diagnostics 596

23 Multiple Regression 630

24 Building Regression Models 667

25 Categorical Explanatory Variables 703

26 Analysis of Variance 736

27 Time Series 768

CASE: STATISTICS IN ACTION Analyzing Experiments 807

CASE: STATISTICS IN ACTION Automated Modeling 815

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Appendix: Tables 823

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if you are familiar with these methods, we encourage Case Studies

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Prakash Mirchandani, University of Pittsburgh Omeed Selbe, University of Southern California

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■■ Personalized Learning: MyStatLab’s personal-

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XLSTAT™ for Pearson

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Internet Browsers (YDI) 49 Finance and Investments

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The Deltoid moths are frequently treated as a distinct family,

Fam. 38. Epicopeiidae.—The genus Epicopeia consists of only a