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JUNIOR COMMAND AND STAFF COURSE 05/21

OPS 17 (D)

COMBAT ESTIMATE

HANDOUT

Reference :

JCSC Ops manual – VOL 1 Chapter 8- Estimates

INTRODUCTION

1. When time is short or an operation is underway, the Commander does not

have sufficient time and probably there is also no sufficient information to
undertake Formal Estimate. He therefore will use his experience, intuition to
conduct a quick appreciation of the situation in order to develop a workable
tactical plan. This is what is known as COMBAT ESTIMATE.

2. The combat estimate can be completed by map study (including IPB if

appropriate), by observation on the ground, or typically, by a combination of both
methods. In all cases mission analysis is mandatory. It should therefore be noted
that Combat estimate is suitable for a tactical level.

3. Combat estimate is normally tackled by addressing the seven generic

questions. A map may be all that is needed to address the seven questions. It is
stressed that at the lower levels of command, especially in the heat of action, it is
highly unlikely that the commander will need to do more than work quickly
through the seven questions in his mind, using them to steer his intuition, in order
to make a quick, timely plan.

4. The précis will cover the following fundamental questions of the Combat
Estimate;

a What are the en doing and why?

b. What have I been told to do and why?
c. What effects do I want to have on the en and what direction must I
give to develop my plan?
d. Where can I best accomplish each action/effect?

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e. What resources do I need to accomplish each action/effect?

f. When and where do the actions take place in relation to each other?
g. What control measures do I need to impose

QUESTION ONE: WHAT ARE THE EN DOING AND WHY?

5. This is the first question to be addressed and it ensures that right from
the start we are focused on the enemy. The basic tool for this is the
map! However, if time is available Question 1 can be answered
following the IPB process. It should answer very practical questions
about the enemy that will assist the Commander in deciding on a plan,
and then developing and executing that plan. There are various tools of thought
that will guide the commander in answering this first question as below;

What is the Enemy doing and why?

How does the ground affect What are the enemy’s capabilities
operation? and what are his tactics?
BATTLEGROUND AREA
EVALUATION THREAT EVALUATION
Terrain Template Doctrinal Overlay
Weather Template Relative Strngths

How might the enemy achieve his objective in my area?

THREAT INTERGRATION
Situation Overlay
Event Overlay

6. How many of these tools are used to answer Question 1 will predominantly
depend on time; and a good int staff will use them selectively and creatively.
Certain critical questions must be asked:

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a. How does the ground affect operations? (enemy/friendly units and

systems) - The Terrain and Weather Templates (for PSO ethnicity, religion
etc will all impact on the conduct of operations)

b. What are the enemy’s capabilities and tactics? - The Relative

Strengths and Enemy Doctrinal Templates will state what the enemy is
capable of doing and will help in identifying en strengths (to be protected
against) and en weaknesses (to target).

c. How might the enemy achieve his objectives in my area? - The

Situation and Event Overlays will display the predictions of what the enemy
might look like in specified situations and the key events in the enemy's
likely and most dangerous COAs.

WHAT DOES THE FIRST QUESTION INFORM?

7. Good answers to this question inform the following;

a Operational Plan As a result of question one, the Comd

b. Placement of units must know what en is facing, where the
c. Anti-Armour Plan en is and when the en is likely to appear.
d. Placement of Obstacles
e. Indirect Fire Plan
f. DSO
g. STAP
METHODS AND THE PRODUCTS OF QUESTION ONE

8. The methods of obtaining answers to question one are tabulated as below;

a. Methods; Reconnaissance to find;

(1) Battlefield Area Evaluation

(2) Terrain Analysis:

(a) How will the ground effect own and enemy operations?

(3) Environmental Analysis

(a) How will environmental conditions affect own and
enemy operations?

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(4) Threat Evaluation

(a) Enemy Strength
(b) Dispositions
(c ) Capability
(d) Doctrine for type of operation

(5) Threat Integration

(a) What are the enemy’s objectives and how will he
achieve his objectives in my AO? Identify enemy strengths and
weaknesses including High Value Targets.

NB:
1. An HVT is an asset or capability which the enemy requires for successful
completion of his mission.

2. HPF – Those HVTs the loss of which would contribute most to the defeat of
the enemy and which can be attacked, given the ISTAR and system available.

3. Key Terrain.

4. The effects of weather on both enemy and friendly forces.

PRODUCTS OF QUESTION ONE

9. Question one should lead to the production of the following;

a. Terrain Overlay
b. Environmental Overlay
c. Doctrinal Overlay
d. Event Overlay: Shows key enemy events by time and space to
achieve his objectives.

e. Situation Overlay; Shows how the enemy will be disposed in

situations when and how he can be targeted e.g. formed up to attack.

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TERRAIN OVERLAY

10. They should analyse:

a. Restricted and severely restricted areas.

b. Check points.

c. Mobility corridors permitting movement in single file or attack

formation from platoon to Bn level.

d. Resulting in avenues of approach.

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ENVIRONMENTAL OVERLAY

11. Do not forget the effects of weather. However, the first point to remember
about the weather template is don't do one unless the weather has an effect on
either you or the enemy. If you do produce the template, tailor it to your
situation.

12. In this example, ground mist restricts visibility in the valleys. However, the
weather may impact your tactical plan in other ways:

a. The degradation of TI sights in mist and fog.

b. Severe rains may swell rivers and make them not fordable.
c. Precipitation may make terrain impassable to wheeled vehicles.
d. The effects of chemical agents can be changed.
e. Air and Avn ops can be influenced.

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AVENUES OF APPROACH

13. By connecting the mobility corridors in a logical way. we can identify the
enemy's likely avenue of approach. Using the narrowest point as a guide, we can
say that the enemy has a company sized avenue of approach into and through this
piece of terrain. In addition, for the enemy to achieve a secure route through the
defile, he needs to secure the high ground first These are assessed as the bn immed
objs.

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14. The next step is to put mobility corridors into the areas where you suspect
the enemy is going to go. Consider approaches to, through and out of the BG
area. The width of the mobility corridor gives you some indication of the size of
the unit that can pass through that particular piece of terrain in battle formation.

15. Example The enemy Combined Arms Motor Rifle Bn requires a minimum
of 2 kms and its coys 500 m. Using these planning figures, we see that the enemy
could enter our sector with two tightly squeezed bns in battle formation. As the
enemy advances the terrain narrows, allowing only a one coy attack frontage. The
built up area will force the enemy either into column, or into two pi attack
frontages. After moving past the two villages, the terrain splits the formation and
widens at the same time. The enemy could probably attack with two companies
through these mobility corridors.

DOCTRINAL OVERLAY

16. The next step is to ask, “What are the enemy’s capabilities and what are his
tactics?” This is called Threat Evaluation. Starting with a doctrinal Overlay there
are three possible COAs open to the enemy. This template will be useful when
considering how the enemy will use the ground.

17. Threat Integration is the identification and development of likely en COAs

that will influence the friendly operation.

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SITUATION OVERLAY

18. Now analyze how the enemy might achieve his objectives in the BG area of
operations. Threat Integration; Fit the enemy to the terrain using the Doctrinal
Overlay. This is the Situation Overlay.

EVENT OVERLAY

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19. Now to synchronise the enemy actions an Event Overlay is produced. It

shows the key enemy events and timings where helpful. It will-start to inform the
Commanding Officer whether he can sequence .actions or whether they should
occur simultaneously.

20. Intelligence Brief; The Intelligence brief is the summary of Question one. It
provides the context in which to address Question two.

Note: At this stage you will not have a complete picture.

21. This brief will focus op the en's obj and capability, the WHAT and WHY. It
will cover;

a. Terrain Analysis-The effects on mobility, visibility and Operations.

b. Weather Analysis
c. Threat Evaluation
d. The Enemy’s potential
e. Threat Integration - Most likely enemy COA & Most Dangerous
Enemy COA.

f. Collection - How to validate the planning Assumptions.

NB:
1. Characteristics of COA must be:

a. Suitable – capable of mission accomplishment.

b. Feasible – It term of time, space and resources.

c. Acceptable – In terms of resources cost

d. Distinguishable – Differs significantly in maneuvers

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QUESTION TWO: WHAT HAVE I BEEN TOLD TO DO AND WHY?

22 . This question calls for Mission analysis. Mission Analysis is command led
and therefore how it is done is time and situation dependent. It seeks to address the
following;

a. Intent (why); 2 up, 1 up, my role

b. Tasks (What): Specified and Implied tasks
c. Constraint (What not?) & (when?)
d. Has the situation changed?

NB:

1. The enemy’s mission likely COA will be the COA, which gives the en the
most consistent superiority with the least amount of risk and closely matches his
doctrine.

2. The most dangerous COA will be COA with the most decisive superiority at
the crucial tune but which the enemy is a high risk operation.

QUESTION THREE: WHAT EFFECTS DO I WANT TO HAVE ON THE

ENEMY AND WHAT DIRECTION MUST I GIVE TO DEVELOP MY
PLAN?

23. Intent Schematic is the product resulting from this question. This question is
the significant for the commander to determine what effects on the enemy he
wants to achieve. By now the CO has:

a. Received his orders or even a WgO.

b. Been briefed on the ground and enemy.
c. Answered Questions 2, his mission Analysis.

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24. He must now decide what effects he wishes to have on the enemy and why.
By applying his experience and intuition he will be able to describe his intent (in
the form of intent schematic) and also give clear direction to focus the estimate
and planning.

25. Effect is the key word. A plan is a series of effects when set within a
manoeuvrist approach.

26. Example From Question 2, the CO knows that he needs to defeat the en
before line MOOSE. From Question 1, he knows likely enemy approaches.

TURN: by obstacle belt, armd

FIND DENY block, Infantry def position, Arty
strike

FIND DISRUPT DEFEAT

FIND DENY
BLOCK: Like above

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EFFECTS TERMS

27. Offensive Ops:

a. Find.
b. Surprise/Defensive
c. Strike – weakness/vulnerability
d. Isolate
e. Penetrates
f. Seize
g. Contain
h. Neutralize
j. Secure

28. Defensive Ops:

a. Find For each effect, a purpose should be given.

b. Deceive
c. Deny
d. Strike
e. Disrupt
f. Block

29. Therefore the effect the CO has decided he needs is to defeat the enemy in
order to prevent him securing the defile. This will probably be his Main Effort. To
confirm that the enemy conforms with what the CO expects, the enemy must be
found as he enters the BG AO.

30. The CO will wish to defeat the enemy on ground of his choosing. In order to
ensure the enemy is canalized towards this effect area he will need to be disrupted
(critical elements of his force selectively engaged) as he approaches in order to
deny him his freedom of action.

31. The CO has already identified that he needs to deny the enemy the high
ground. The purpose for this is to threaten the enemy's security.

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In conjunction the enemy must be found as he attempts to seize this ground.

The CO should also be thinking laterally. Surprise and deception are actions to
achieve an effect.

32. The CO is now in a position to brief from his sketch and give direction. He
may use the functions in combat or the principles of that type of operation.

33. Note: There is always more than one way to skin a cat and so there may be
more than one effect schematic. However that will absorb considerable planning
time. How specific the CO is will depend on the time available.

DIRECTION

34. Direction to develop the plan needs to cover the following;

a. Intent – The effect he wishes to have on the enemy and why.

b. Main Effort
c. End State
d. Direction to Staff
(1) To allow application of specialist knowledge to sp COA
development based on direction by the CO

e. Information Requirements
(1) Critical Information Requirements
(2) Questions back to Bde
(3) Specialist advice from all arms

DEVELOPING THE PLAN

35. The other four questions of the seven question estimate seek to help in the
development of the plan.

a. WHERE CAN I BEST ACCOMPLISH EACH ACTION/ EFFECT

b. WHAT RESOURCES DO I NEED TO ACCOMPLISH EACH

ACTION/EFFECT?

c. WHEN AND WHERE DO THE ACTIONS TAKE PLACE IN

RELATION TO EACH OTHER?

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d. WHAT CONTROL MEASURES DO I NEED TO IMPOSE

QUESTION FOUR: WHERE CAN I BEST ACCOMPLISH EACH

ACTION/EFFECT?

36. The WHERE is applying the intent schematic, in more detail, to the map.
Deciding where best to achieve each effect can be informed by any of the
following:

a. BAE
b. Comd's recce (itself informed by the BAE)
c. Other recces
d. Further map appreciation. Start with the Main Effort.

37. Example. The Defeat of the enemy in order to prevent him forcing the
defile is the ME. The enemy must be found in order to shape him into this area.
Starting with the ME, the sketch can be tidied up and turned into a draft DSO
around which the remainder of the planning will take place. This can be done for
each effect and the remaining three questions asked about each area of effect.

38. Target areas of Interest. Where best to accomplish each action/effect should
focus on the Targeted area(s) of Interest (TAI)

a. Where we look and shoot

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b. Confirm or deny Enemy COA (along with NAIs)

c. Area where we intend to have an effect on the Enemy
d. Point TAI - Similar to a DF but can be covered by Direct Fire
Weapons.

e. Area TAI - Normally an All-Arms Integrated Killing Area

39. TAIs are areas in which comd intends to have his desired effect on the
enemy and should act as a focus for planning. They should be shaped to the
ground and named or numbered.

NB. NAIs should be linked to the TAIs and TAIs to the DPs

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DECISION POINT

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Decision Points
•Decision Point (DP)
- Where we look in order to Make
Decisions
- Enemy does something
- We React to it
•Commit Reserve
•Launch Counter – Attack
•Trigger a TAI

QUESTION FIVE: WHAT RESOURCES DO I NEED TO ACCOMPLISH

EACH ACTION/EFFECT

40. At his point the elements of the BG are pulled together and make their
contributions to the effect, as laid down by the CO.

Note:
The application of force must be based on what we think the enemy is going to do
and hence refer back to the products from Question 1.

41. The Comd must identify correctly the resources he needs to accomplish the
effects. The products of these could include the Anti Armour Plan, Engeneer Plan,
Fire Plan

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42. In conjuction with the Anti-Armour and other plans, the placement of
Units/Sub Units can be decided

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43. At this stage it is important to note that the intent Schematic is quickly
developed into a decision Support overlay DSO

Note that;

1. a. All TAIs have been shaped to the ground.

b. NAIs have been placed to confirm or deny an enemy COA.
c. As seen NAls 1 and 2 will reveal how many avenues of approach the
enemy bn is using.

d. NAls 3, 4 and 5 will find the enemy as he attempts to seize the high
ground.

e. DPs have been added to cue OS assets to strike the enemy in TAIs 1
and 2-

44. DSO Matrix will then be produced

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Wargame

45. During war gaming;

a. Whoever is on the offensive leads
b. All arms contribution to how they might achieve the CO’s desired
effect.
c. Work on the draft DSO round the bird table
d. Record the results

46. Once the draft DSO has been produced the BG is in a posn to wargame to
refine the plan. In outline the way to do it is shown here. The side with the
initiative should lead, hence in defence this will be the enemy. The IO,
representing toe enemy, should be robust and adversarial in order to test the plan.
The benefits are that: In a sequential manner you get to visualise what you are /is
facing. It involves all key members of the BG staff. It will show the impact of the
enemy on the plan thus far. The effect of the BG's COAs and the enemy's response
to any gaps. It is particularly useful to synchronise the all grrns battle. Although
the synchronisation of actions within each TAI will have been worked out in
detail, the overall synchronization of the BG, Question 6, may not be completed
until the end of war gaming.

NB:

The details for each NAI, TAI and DP is then recorded on DSO Matrix (DSOM)

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QUESTION SIX: WHEN AND WHERE DO THE ACTIONS TAKE PLACE

IN RELATION TO EACH OTHER?

47. A product of war gaming is a completed synchronization matrix. The

synchronization matrix provides the linkage between the DSO and the tactical
plan. In it, the commander and his staff articulate how the battle develops in time.
You will note that the inclusion in row 3 of Own Effect/Action enables this matrix
to show both integration as well as synchronization.

48. The final part of the process is the Surveillance and Target Acquisition Plan.
Once the NAls, DPs and TAls have been identified an STA asset needs to be
tasked to cover them. This will need to be coordinated; it will also help to drive
your patrol plan.

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INTELLIGENCE COLLECTION PLAN

49. At BG level – a collection plan may not be required. It is Initially informed

by CCIRs and higher Fmn collection requirements The plan is refined as IPB is
worked up. The ”Final” version is developed from the wargame and updated
during execution.

QUESTION SEVEN: WHAT CONTROL MEASURES DO I NEED TO

IMPOSE?

50. Answering this question will continue throughout the planning. We are now
in a position to put on sub-unit boundaries, additional Restricted Fire Lines
(RFLs), COMSEC as well as sitting HQs. We should coordinate such things as
routes for reserves, report lines etc. It is also important to confirm comd
relationships (in this example who controls the milan) and therefore the Taskorg.
Shown on this slide, for simplicity, are just the sub-unit boundaries.

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THE PLAN

51. The plan will finally be developed and the orders prepared for action. The
DSO (the intent) with troops and boundaries super-imposed (scheme of
manoeuvre) represents the plan.

CONCLUSION

52. The tools are not complicated but require practice in different
circumstances so that one understands what needs to be achieved in difficult
circumstances when time is short. Decision making and planning at BG level
should not be a ponderous process.

53. Finally Orders are prepared and, if necessary, written. Remember that the
BG is the lowest level where commanders have staff. products from the
planning that must be useful and usable if distributed to subordinates. Use
schematics where possible. (General Patton directed that Army-level orders
"should not exceed a page and a half of type-written text with the back of the
page reserved for a sketch map).

54. Within your concept, the intent is simply a description of the effects you
wish to have on the enemy and their purpose. The scheme of maneuver
describes how this will be done.

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