Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Brian Feroldi Threads 04062024
Brian Feroldi Threads 04062024
’ 2rischen Produet
Short run long run
y
Demand income
MulHPasts
effec
22
CondiHon that pro -
duction is equal to
Equilibium
Point
y= A
22 Consumphion behaniour
Demand Sy-T
c18ion demand. Slope c
re =y-T- Co- Ca ly-T)
autonomous
fAn incrtOSe in
sperding
ortangn S=-Got 4-c4) (Y-T)
Income Demand autonomouS spendng propensity to sare
hos a more thoan
one-for -one effet on befween O andA.
8 C
0 Money
macoeeOnOmiCs
q0ods
masket
inan ciol
TI| E MO D E L
ano
sShort run
market
THE GOODS MARKET+ IS RELATION FINANCIAL MARKETS he
insereot rabe Investmant (I) depends on produchion (Y) ard Ehe inkrest ZM RELATION
rate (i)
output (9,i) So equilbrium in goods masket:
lnvestment
Framework: IsLM model u5
Soings YC-(y-T)+ 1(Y, i)+ G MCyL) davide by the pnice eeel
relaion Output
by ticks &Hansen Consun pion 1 Iresimant| Go
produ chion
inkersl ale
Spendigs AYL) ZM Relaton
Demand 2 3) 45 úne Ih equilibrium, real money supply equas
Demand2 the real money demand ,which dupends
22
(ori) on real income y and Ehe inkresl aki.
EQui ibrivm leuek Demand
22 of outpu
(for i' >i) A The damand for aoods
The centoal lcank chooses the interest
is on incveasiKq Funcion
of Output.
rate Cond adjusts the mony sppey
In quiGbrtum So as to achiee it.
demand for gpods output
Outpu y Output y
y! intreSt rate i 15 relation YC (y-T)+1 (yi D+ G
Increase inkrest ale ’ 2 is pward sloping becausei IM relation: i
Intest raki 4 decuease damand at inteest hose ok inease damand
any level of outpud rae LM The (S and (M relo ion
beawse of its efPets on consunphon
L dacvease equilibnienm and inesient
togethes delesmine
level of output ’ 2 s CarR, 22 line
Lne ünear otpat.
A Dutput Y
’ 22= flater than 45 üne
L4 inCieaSe 0n outpul ’ less ihan oNN-fer-bre
IS CUrve Incrtase in demard
Inlkrest ralei
interest rate
y
Oudput Y = equilibrium in
Is (for tayes T)
Joeds masleet
An increase in taxes shifls the cure left
and
LM
PUTTING 15 the LM RELATIONS TOGETH ER equiibrium
in financaial mas kets
DEqutibrium in the goods mauket implies that an increase in the intrest
rate eeads lo a dacrease in output.
D This is eprsened by the (S - (ur 0wlput, CIno me), y
D Equiübrium in inahcial majkets is Rpresented buy the hori2ontal Mcurve.
D On ly in point A, wch is i both cures are both qodS o nd Hnancial mas kets
in equiibri um.
Rscal
DecHeasepoeicy.
in-T
inttrest ratei ’Ascal contrachion iscal Conso i dation
A monetary <xpans ion
Monetary Poeiey shifts t LH cure down
and leods to highes
Increase in G-T
An incease in
In Crease in M A LM Oulput ( Iour inees ’ iscal expansion
4> Monetoary expansion rae inrestment taxes shfts he
increases).
Decrease in M A interest rat I5 Corve eeft.
LM!
s monet ary contaction This leads to decrease
15 in equilibrium 'evel
mone tary Hghtening Output y
of output.
y'
POLICY MIX interest ratei
The iscal expansion A
LM
A shift5 the Is curne
fiscal policy mix is LM
to Lhe rght.
Ah
ination ef monatasy ano
isal poicies. A moretasy expansion
A' LM! Shf{S CM Curve
Suppose that the economy isin doJn. Ouiput,Clnco me), y
a Rcession and odpud is too 15 Both eead to
low.
"Both fiscal and mongtosypolicies
Can be USed to increase oud put. 'output Y
IFRS BRIAN FEROLDI
GAAP
DATA SOURCE:
WallStreet Prep IFRS GAAP
FINANCIAL STATEMENTS PRESENTATION
INCOMESTATEMENT 2 years allowed 3 years required
BALANCE SHEET Curreetrder of liquidity. Decreasng order of liquidity.
INCOME TAXES
Deferred Tax Assets are only recognized asa for e Adeferred tax assets (DAs) are recognized and nettedt
when probat valuation alonere is no need
not -5ö% that the company will not be able to use the btA
INVESTMENT Aseparate category Not separate from Property, Plane, &Equipment
ROPERTY
BIOLOGICAL ASSETS Measured at fair value, separate from Inventory. Included in inventory
included in fixed assets
Categoriesfor operating andfinance leases on
LEASES Single category on balance sheet (eg Rights of use) balance sheet
cONTINTGENT Recognized when 50% likely, Recognized when 75% ikely,
measurement methods dite
cONSOLIDATION
PunoWn acconank not alowable, there is an
A. Price Ratios
Price ratios use the most recent company share price to drive insights
about company value for financial analysts. These ratios are quick to
calculate but can be affected by different accounting policies and
treatment.
Price-to-Earnings Ratio
EV/EBITDA Ratio
EV/EBIT Ratio
EV/Revenue Ratio
corporatefinanceinstitute.com 31
Corporate Finance lnstitute Financial Ratios
Formula
Share Price
Price-to-Earnings
Ratio
Earnings per Share
Interpretation
To calculate this ratio, the following formulas are required:
Earnings per Share = (Net Income - Preferred Dividends)/Weighted Avg. Shares Outstanding
Companies with a high P/E ratio are often considered growth stocks. This indicates positive future
performance and earnings growth as investors are willing to pay more per dollar of current
earnings. However, growth stocks are usually more volatile and have more investor pressure to
perform well. Stocks with high P/E ratios may also be considered overvalued.
Conversely,companies with a low P/E ratio are often considered value stocks. They are undervalued
relative to their competitors and company intrinsic value. These stocks are a bargain that investors
aim for before the markets correct their valuations on them.
The P/E ratio can also be used to compare stocks at different prices. For example, if Stock A is
trading at $30 and Stock Bat $20, StockA appears to be more expensive. However, if Stock Ahad
a lower P/E ratio than Stock B, its price per unit of earnings would be lower than Stock B, thus
making Stock Acheaper from an earnings perspective.
corporatefinanceinstitute.com 32
Corporate Finance Institute Financial Ratios
EV/EBITDA Ratio
Overvievw
The EV/EBITDA ratio compares a company's enterprise value (E) to its earnings before interest,
taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA). EV/EBITDA is commonly used as a valuation metric
to compare the relative value of different businesses.
Formula
Enterprise Value
Interpretation
To calculate this ratio, the following formulas are required:
Market Capitalization = Share Price x Number of Shares
Net Debt = Market Value of Debt - Cash and Cash Equivalents
Like the price-to-earnings ratio, EV/EBITDA is an important ratio when it comes to valuation. It can
be used to determine a target price in an equity research report or value a company compared to
its peers.
For example, Company Ais going public and analysts need to determine its share price. Company
Ahas five similar companies that operate in its industry, Companies B, C, D, E, and F. The EV/EBITDA
ratios for these companies respectively are 12.1x, 11.3x, 10.8x, 9.2x, and 13.4x. The average of
EV/EBITDA would be 11.4x. Afinancial analyst would apply this 11.4x multiple to Company A's
EBITDA to find its EV, and consequently its equity value and share price.
33
corporatefinanceinstitute.com
Corporate Finance Institute Financial Ratios
EV/EBIT Ratio
Overview
The EV/EBIT ratio compares acompany's enterprise value (E) to its earnings before interest and
taxes (EBIT). EV/EBIT 0s commonly used as avaluation metric to compare the relative value of
different businesses, While similar to the EV/EBITDA ratio, EV/EBIT incorporates depreciation and
amortization.
Formula
Enterprise Value
Interpretation
To calculate this ratio, the following formulas are required:
Market Capitalization = Share Price x Number of Shares
Net Debt = Market Value of Debt - Cash and Cash Equivalents
Though less commonly used than EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT is an important ratio when it comes to
valuation. Itcan be used to determine a target price in an equity research report or value a company
compared to its peers. The major difference between the two ratio is EV/EBIT's inclusion of
depreciation and amortization. This is useful for capital intensive businesses where depreciation is
a true economiccOst.
In this example, Company Ais going public and analysts need to determine its share price. Company
Ahas five similar companies that operate in its industry, Companies B, C, D, E, and F. The EV/EBIT
ratios for these companies respectively are 11.3x, 8.3x, 7.1x, 6.8x, and 10.2x. The average of EV/EBIT
would be 8.7x. Afinancial analyst would apply this 8.7x multiple to Company A's EBIT to find its EV,
and consequently its equity value and share price.
corporatefinanceinstitute.com 34
l CFI Corporate Finance Institute Financial Ratios
EV/Revenue Ratio
Overview
The EV/Revenue is a ratio that compares a company's enterprise value (EV) to its revenue. The
EV/EBITDA ratio is commonly used as a valuation metric to compare the relative value of different
businesses. EV/Revenue is one of the only performance-related multiples valuation ratios available
for companies with negative EBITDA.
Formula
Enterprise Value
Interpretation
Tocalculate this ratio, the following formulas are required:
Market Capitalization = Share Price x Number of Shares
Net Debt = Market Value of Debt - Cash and Cash Equivalents
Compared to other ratios, EV/Revenue is most often used when a company does not have a positive
EBITDA or net income. It can be used to determine atarget price in an equity research report or
value a company compared to its peers.
For example, Company Aisgoing public and analysts need to determine its share price. Company
A has five similar companies that operate in its industry, Companies B, C, D, E, and F. The
EV/Revenue ratios for these companies respectively are 12.1x, 11.3x, 10.8x, 9.2x, and 13.4x. The
average of EV/Revenue would be 11.4x. Afinancial analyst would apply this 11.4x multiple to
Company As Revenue to find its EV, and consequently its equity value and share price.
corporatefinanceinstitute.com 35
Corporate Finance Institute Financial Ratios
Good for companies in the same reporting There may be inconsisterncies in treatment of
environment where accounting differences EBITDA for joint ventures in different reporting
are minimized environments
Other accounting differences such as revenue
recognition and operating leases
EV/Sales
Suitable for companies with similar business Does not address quality of revenues, varying
models/development stages revenue growth rates, or profitability issues
Possibly the only performance-related multiple There may be inconsistencies in treatment of
available for companies with negative EBITDA sales for joint ventures in different reporting
environments
Useful for sectors with similar operating There may be different revenue recognition
margins between companies or where market rules between comparable companies
share is important
Limited exposure to accounting differences
corporatefinanceinstitute.com 36
Corporate Finance, Financial Management and Investments Formula Sheet
Po =
DË E,(1 b) (1+r)3
r-(bxROE) Dupont
1-b Net income
Po ROE =
Shareholder equity
E r-(b x ROE)
How effectively has the firm been run to benefit shareholders
(b= plowback ratio)
Return from ops for shareholders+creditors
NOPAT = NI + int. exp.x (1-T) How well did the firm use debt financing to
benefit shareholders
Residual dividend approach ROA =
Average assets
Project returns: r Asset turnover
Shareholder cost of equity: r Operating efficiency Interest efficiency Leverage
Sales NOPAT N.I. Av. assets
If r, >e, company creates value for shareholders Av. assets sales NOPAT X Av. sh. equity
What p of each S
If r, =, shareholders indifferent How much revenue
from assets
revenue is left for
reditors shareholders
"What potion of eadh
NOPAT S is left after
What assets beyond
equity e company
If r < te, company destroys value for shareholders after covering operating
expenses?
covering interest
expense
hold
Buybacks
Capital structure ADebt = excess cash used + new debt raised
Cost of debt
Ta =rf t credit spread PV (Tax shields) = ADxT
Debt shield Value to share sellers = Premium x Volume
Credit spread =default risk for firms of similar interest coverage
EBIT %to sellers = Value to sellers / PV (Tax)
1C=
Interest expenses Enew = Eola - AD + AD x T
Cost of equity (From CAPM): Total Enterprise Value (TEV)
re=tBX Market risk premium TEV = D+ E- non-operating cashflows
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACc) During buybacks, incorporate changes including-cost of buyback
+ PV tax shields + cash value of new debt
Financial +systematicrisk: V= D +E
D E Equate to PV of sustainable cash flows
WACC =(1 -T) *,X Ta tXe EBIT x(1- T)
TEV
WACC
Levered/unlevered return (concentration of risk)
ris return on unlevered equity =return on assets, leverage D/E, Metrics
gives r as cost of levered equity, and: Economic Value Added (Stern-Stewart)
EVA = residual income = income earned - income required
r=+(a-t)ol-) = income earned - cost of capital x investment
Economic Profit (Mckinsey)
Levered/unlevered beta EP = (RO! -)x capital invested
When determining cost of equity, consider current firm leverage Earnings per share
D/Eç vs target leverage D,/E. Levered beta = business risk + Net income
financial risk. EPS =
Number of shares outstanding
Return on equity (net less re)
Net income
ROE =
Book value of common equity
By = D Return on assets (net less WACC)
|1+x(1-T)) ROA =
Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT)
So, to determine target beta: Total assets
Price-Earnings ratio
Share price
B =Bx
1+(1-) PE =
EPS
A C - Cz
= C-C7' Aoj
with
Capital Asset Pricing Model /CAPM
PV, = A x PV, + (1-A) x PV2
e.g. C=$100, C, = $0 and C = $50, Then Market risk premium = m-f
$50 - $0
A= 50% Required return on risky asset (systematic risk only!)
$100- $0
r=tßx (Tm -T)
Two-asset portfolio Asset Beta:
Mean returns AB risk (StDev) OA.B, Correlation cov(stock, market)
cov(a He) B=
PAB = var (market)
risk-free rate r. Weights w, and awp = 1- A B>1»Aggressive stock
B<1» Defensive stock
Mean portfolio return Realised CAPM in terms of risk premium: R=r-rf, a is anomalous
return and e is random term
of =Bio+ o'(e)
Minimum-variance portfolio With R-square, expressing portion of variation in stock movement
o - cov(raTa) that is systematic:
o + o -2 cov(ra, Th)
Optimal (tangent) portfolio is given by A-stock weighting:
When there is a portfolio of stocks P with weight w, so that
(HA-)o +(M8-T)oi - Hat Ma - 2r)PABOAOp Rp = ap +BpRM tep
Sharpe ratio / 'reward to risk is
Sharpe ratio ="pI
utility Fama-French
U
= E(r) -0.5Ao² CAPM, but with three betas for market, firm size and book-to
A>0: Risk aversion, preference for lower risk market ratios.
A=0: Risk neutral, highest return sought
A<0: Pathological risk seeking, lower returns ok with t risk Bmarket X(n - )
+ Bsize x (Tsmall -Tharge)
With risk-free rate r, and risky asset rp, Op, maximum level of risk + BreM x (TRtMT -TBEMi)
aversion for which risky asset is preferred:
2(,-) a>0’ +ve risk-adjusted returns
A= a<0’ -ve risk-adjusted returns
Corporate Finance, Financial Management and Investments Formula Sheet
Dur =
( 6.25%
NAB'S cost of funds curve
Swap curve
5.40%
Treasury yeld curve
(1+y 5.15%
The cost to NAB of fxing the interest rate for three yearss an extra 125 bps per
year (5.40%-4.15%) at the time the bonds are issued. The extra 125 bps buys
Equivalent portfolio is holding (1-H) shares and placing NAB protection against interest rale rises over the three years.
remaining funds (from stock + put/call portfolio) into T-bills
Collars
Black Scholes Natural long positions (e.g. Gold miner):
Value of call option = [delta x share price]- [bank loan] Payoff increase with increase of asset price
where
[N(a) x P]- [N(d2) xEXe-r"] Protect downside with long put
Pay for put by selling call, limiting upside
d, = In[P/EX] +(r + o*/2)T APAY-oFiy NATUeAL
aVT PostrzON
dz = d,- ovT;
NC) = NORMSIDST(d);
EX = Exercise price of option;
T= number of periods to expiration;
P= stock price now; and
o= standard deviation per period of (continuously compounded) Kp
rate of return of stock
r=continuously compounded risk free rate
B-S With dividends <AL
ra = annual dividend yield
Cash Flow, $
Year: 0 1 2.. ... t-1 t t+1... Present Value
1
t-period annuity 1 1... 1 1 1
7 r(1+r)
t-period annuity 1
due
Growing
1 1
1
1...
t-period growing
annuity
1 1x (1+ g).. 1x (1+g)-2 1x (1 + 9)-1 r-g
1
-:
(1+g)
(1+r))
Taylor
n!
m=0
Sample standard deviation
L'Hôpital
With a sample x, approximation g s [Often] when f(x ’ c) = g(x’ c) = 0 or to,
N
lim
f(*)
S=
1 lim
*c g(x) *g'*)
Confidence intervals
Covariance For a confidence interval CI%
Qvalue = NORMSINV| 1 C
2
So that the confidence interval
Cl= Mean t Q x o
Correlation
Pearson product-moment correlation coeffiient Gaussian PDF
Pxy = Ixy =
Cxy E"(x-)(y- ) fx) =
1 (-p)
2g2
V2na
Least Squares Geometric average
Variables x, y have least squares slope
Returns (e.g. time series) HieN, Compounding average
Intercept
m=Ty oy 1/N
Geometric mean
C= By -mux
V(1+4)(1+42).. (1 + #w)
sign up to the world's
FINANCIAL RATIOS M
FINANCIAL MODELING
WORLD CUP
largest finance challenge
and compete for $20,000
prize fund!
fmworldcup.com
LIQUIDITY RATIOS
Current Ratio
Current Assets Benchmark: at least
Will we have enough money
to pay suppliers? Current Liabilities 1.00, preferably 2.00
Debtor Days
Average Debtors
How quickly do our debtors pay us Turnover
X365
after the transaction?
Inventory Days
How fast can we sell our stock Average Inventory X365
COGS
after purchase?
Creditor Days
How long do our suppliers allow Average Creditors X365
them to not pay for stocks after Purchases
purchasing them?
Cash Conversion Cycle
How long is cash tied up in inventory Inventory Days + Debtor Days -Creditor Days
before the inventory is sold and cash
is collected from customers?
To calculate average receivables or stocks, the average between the year-start and year-end balance sheets is
used. Accordingly, these indicators are significantly affected by the closing balance! It is worth following them
every month in your company.
Turnover's cost of sales is not equal to production cost -the cost of purchasing and delivering items must be
taken into account.
Accounts payable should only be used for trade receivables. Depending on the situation, the bank's short-term
liabilities, which are taken directly to finance inventories, can be used.
" All turnover figures are measurable in days.
1
Debt-Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR)
EBITDA
Do we earn more than we have to pay the Benchmark: >120%
bank? %+ principal
payments
Debt/EBITDA
In how many years Would the company be Bank loans balance Benchmark: <4.00, for
long-term real estate
able to return all its loans to the bank? EBITDA projects - more.
To calculate the average balance sheet ratios (assets, loan balances), the average between the
beginning and the endof the year balance sheet is used. Accordingly, these figures are affected by
the closing balance (but not as significant as receivables, inventories or trade receivables)! It is worth
following them every month in your company.
EBITDA =earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization
EBITDA = net profit +CIT +% payments +depreciation + amortization
ALTMAN Z-SCORE
Z-Score
Z<1.8. Very high 1.8<Z <2.7. Moderate Z> 2.7. Minimal probability
probability of bankruptcy probability of bankruptcy of bankruptcy in the next 2
in the near future in the next 2 years years
M
FINANCIAL MODELING
3 WORLD CUP