Probability Statistics and Reliability for

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Ratio life expectancy

Problem 2-3.
Copper content of steel is a variable of interest.
Scale Function
Nominal presence of copper
Ordinal small, medium, high
Interval weight
Ratio percent by weight of steel

2-2
2.3. Graphical Description of Data

Problem 2-4.
250 Central
City
200
Suburban
150
Rural
Population (in
millions)

100

50

0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970
Year

Problem 2-5.
See Problem 2-4 for the area chart. The column chart is as follows:
120 Rural

100 Suburban

80 Central City
Population (in

60
40
millions)

20
0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 Projection
Year

Assuming that the 295 is future projection, then the best estimates of the proportions would be
those from the last year of record, 1970, which are 34, 38, and 28. This would lead to 100.3,
112.1, and 82.6 for rural, suburban, and central city. It appears from the data of Problem 2-18 that
the proportion of rural is decreasing, the proportion of suburban is increasing, and the central city
is remaining constant. Regression lines by curve fitting could be used to enhance prediction. The
stacked columns figures show the trends side-by-side; whereas the area chart shows the relative
proportions and total numbers.

2-3
Problem 2-6.

Municipal Trash
and Garbage
Industrial

Mining

Agriculture

The pie chart shows clearly the amounts as fractions of the total. The visual image gives a more
lasting sense of the proportions than a tabular summary.

Problem 2-7.
Percent of Core Forested Area of the U.S. by
Region

Northern Region
Rocky Mountain Region
Southwestern Region
Intermountain Region
Pacific Southwest Region
Pacific Northwest Region
Region 7
Southern Region
Eastern Region
Alaska Region

Region Percent Core Forested of Region Percent of all US

Northern Region 38.0 13.89%
Rocky Mountain Region 33.5 12.24%
Southwestern Region 33.3 12.17%
Intermountain Region 22.1 8.06%
Pacific Southwest Region 21.4 7.80%
Pacific Northwest Region 23.0 8.40%
Region 7 15.6 5.70%
Southern Region 27.8 10.14%
Eastern Region 29.7 10.86%
Alaska Region 29.4 10.74%
Data source (accessed in 2009):
http://cfpub.epa.gov/eroe/index.cfm?fuseaction=detail.viewInd&ch=50&subtop=210&lv=list.listB
yChapter&r=188266

2-4
Problem 2-8.
Petroleum Im ports by Selected Countries Petroleum Im ports by Selected Countries
of Origin, 1970 of Origin, 1980

Persian Gulf Persian Gulf

Iraq Iraq
Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia
Venezuela Venezuela
Canada Canada
Mexico Mexico
United Kingdom United Kingdom

Petroleum Im ports by Selected Countries Petroleum Im ports by Selected Countries

of Origin, 1990 of Origin, 2000

Persian Gulf Persian Gulf

Iraq Iraq
Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia
Venezuela Venezuela
Canada Canada
Mexico Mexico
United Kingdom United Kingdom

Data (Source accessed in 2009: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/txt/ptb0504.html)

Petroleum Imports by Country of Origin, 1970-2000
Selected OPEC Countries Selected Non-OPEC Countries

Total
Persian Gulf Iraq Saudi Arabia Venezuela Canada Mexico United Kingdom Imports
Year Thousand Barrels per Day
1970 121 0 30 989 766 42 11 1,959
1980 1,519 28 1,261 481 455 533 176 4,453
1990 1,966 518 1,339 1,025 934 755 189 6,726
2000 2,488 620 1,572 1,546 1,807 1,373 366 9,772
Through these pie charts, one can clearly see different trends in imports from various countries.
For example, in 1970 the U.S. relied heavily on Venezuela for petroleum imports, but overall there
has been a leveling of imports from various countries (it has become slightly more equal).

2-5
Problem 2-9.
Household Size in 2000

10%

26%
15%
1 Person
2 People
3 People
4 People
5+ People
16%

33%

*Note: The U.S. Family Size was unable to be found because the U.S. Census Bureau finds family
size through household size. Therefore, I used household size.
Source accessed in 2009: http://www.census.gov/prod/2001pubs/p20-537.pdf
Excel Table Used for Pie Chart:
Household Size in 2000
Size %
1 Person 10.4
2 People 14.6
3 People 16.4
4 People 33.1
5+ People 25.5

Problem 2-10.

Frequency of Kentucky Derby times from 1919 to present:

Time Frequency
119 seconds 1
120 seconds 5
121 seconds 16

2-6
 122 seconds 23
123 seconds 15
124 seconds 12
125 seconds 8
126 seconds 4
127 seconds 3
128 seconds 0
129 seconds 2
130 seconds 2

Problem 2-11.

Eastern Province

n Interior and Gulf Provinces

o
i
g
e Rocky Mtn. and N. Great Plains
R
Alaska

Problem 2-12.
Figure 2-3
Bar chart: This chart nicely displays information of total steel production between each quarter and
steel type. This does not necessarily show the total steel production for each quarter but can be
used to compare the total production of each type for each quarter. From this chart it is clear the
total production of each steel type remains close to each other for each type except in the 3rd
quarter when 40 ksi steel is produced at least five times as much as usual.
Figure 2-5a
Column chart: Steel production is shown as a percentage of total steel produced for each quarter.
This chart uses a percentage for comparison and will not show totals. It can be used to show which
steel is produced the most for each quarter and this information can be used to allocate resources
depending on the quarter.
Figure 2-5b
Column chart steel production shows total steel produce for each quarter. This chart quickly shows
which quarter has the greatest total steel produced of all the types of steel combined. This is useful
in determining the most active quarter during the year in terms of total steel produced.
Comparison:
Figure 2-3 is a bar chart showing the steel production by yield strength and quarter. The emphasis
in this chart is on the production for steel type. This is useful to keep track of the production for
both the type and the quarter. Figures 2-5a and 2-5b also show the steel production by yield
strength and quarter. However, the data in these two figures are presented in column charts where
the steel production (dependent variable) is expressed as a percentage of the a total in the first
figure and in tons in the second.

2-7
Problem 2-13.
450 1940
400 1950
350
US Production

1960
300
1970
250
200
150
100
50
0
Surface Mines Underground Mines
Mine Type

450 Surface Mines

400 Underground Mines
350
US Production

300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1940 1950 1960 1970
Mine Type

100%

80%
US Production

Underground Mines
60% Surface Mines

40%

20%

0%
1940 1950 1960
1970
Year

2-8
Problem 2-14.
Data: % in Range
Year Time TimeRange
Range# in 0.15
2009 02:27.5 2:26<x<2:26
3 0.25
2008 02:29.7 2:27<x<2:27
5 0.3
2007 02:28.7 2:28<x<2:28
6 0.2
2006 02:27.8 2:29<x<2:29
4 0
2005 02:28.7 2:30<x<2:30
0 0.05
2004 02:27.5 2:31<x<2:31
1 0.05
2003 02:28.3 2:32<x<2:32
1
2002 02:29.7
2001 02:26.8
2000 02:31.2
1999 02:27.8
1998 02:29.0
1997 02:28.8
1996 02:28.8
1995 02:32.0
1994 02:26.8
1993 02:29.8
1992 02:26.1
1991 02:28.0
1990 02:27.2

Column Chart:
Belmont Stakes Winners 1990-2009
Time Range

Seri…

0 0.2 0.4

% in Time Range

Problem 2-15.
Prestressed Concrete Concrete Steel
30
25
Number

20
15
10
5
0
1989 1990 1991
Year

2-9
 Prestressed Concrete Concrete Steel

100%
80%
Percent

60%
40%
20%
0%
1989 1990 1991
Year

Problem 2-16.
y=xb y=ax0.5
X b=0.5 b=1.0 b=1.5 X a=0.5 a=1.0 a=1.5
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0 0 0
0.5 0.707 0.50 0.35 0.5 0.35 0.707 1.06
1.0 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.0 0.5 1 1.5
1.5 1.22 1.50 1.84 1.5 0.61 1.22 1.84
2.0 1.41 2.00 2.83 2.0 0.71 1.41 2.12
y=xb y=ax0.5

3.00 2.5

2.50
2.00 2
b=0.5
1.50 b=1.0
1.5
a=0.5
b=1.5 a=1.
1.00
0
a=1.
5
1
0.50
0.00
0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 0.5

0
0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
Observations: (1) the coefficient a scales the y-axis, with the magnitude increasing as a increases.
(2) b controls the shape, with b=1 being linear, b > 1 being concave up (increasing rate), b < 1
being concave down (decreasing slope).

Problem 2-17.
Depth Clean Water Polluted Water Difference
0 0.7 0.65 0.05
0.25 0.615625 0.563125 0.0525
0.5 0.5375 0.4825 0.055
0.75 0.465625 0.408125 0.0575
1 0.4 0.34 0.06
1.25 0.340625 0.278125 0.0625

2-10
 1.5 0.2875 0.2225 0.065
1.75 0.240625 0.173125 0.0675
2 0.2 0.13 0.07
2.25 0.165625 0.093125 0.0725
2.5 0.1375 0.0625 0.075
2.75 0.115625 0.038125 0.0775
3 0.1 0.02 0.08
3.25 0.090625 0.008125 0.0825
3.5 0.0875 0.0025 0.085
3.75 0.090625 0.003125 0.0875
4 0.1 0.01 0.09
4.25 0.115625 0.023125 0.0925
4.5 0.1375 0.0425 0.095

The light penetrates less polluted water. The difference increases as the depth of the water increases.

Problem 2-18.
Decline in The Proportion of The
Population
Living in Rural
Areas
60
50
40
Decline

30
(%)

20
10
0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960
1970

Year

2-10
 Association Between The Change in Central
City Population And The Increase In Proportion
Living in Suburban Areas
40
30
% 20 Suburban
10 Central
0

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960

1970
Year

Problem 2-19.
Type Use Independent Dependent Variable Example
Variable
Area charts Three-dimensional data that Measured on an Measured on the Analyzing the traffic
include both nominal and interval scale and interval scale and at an intersection
interval-independent shown on the cumulated over all
variables. abscissa values of the nominal
variable
Pie charts Graphically present data Measured on an Breakdown according
recorded as fractions, interval scale to form of
percentages, or proportions transportation in a
shipping company
Bar charts Data recorded on an interval One or more A magnitude or a Reinforcing steel
scale recorded on fraction production
nominal or ordinal
scales
Column charts Similar to bar charts Used for the Expressed as a Capacity of
abscissa. percentage (or desalination plants
fraction) of a total. It
is shown as the
ordinate.
Scatter When both variables are Shown on the Shown on the Yield strength and
diagrams measured on interval or abscissa ordinate carbon content
ratio scales.
Line graphs Illustrate mathematical Measured on Measured on interval Peak discharge rates
equations interval or ratio or ratio scales.
scales Shown as the
ordinate
Combination Experimental data and Operation of a marine
charts theoretical (or fitted) vessel
prediction equations. Two
or more of the above
mentioned methods are used
to present data.
Three Describe the relationships Any of the above
dimensional among three variables. mentioned examples
charts can be displayed.

2-11
Problem 2-20.
U.S. Citizens As a Function of Age Group

<5
11.10% 7.20%
5-9
7.40%
4.50% 10-14
15-19
5.10% 8.10% 20-24
25-29
5.20% 30-34
35-39
9.30%
4.90% 40-44
45-49
5.20% 50-54

55-59
9.40%
6.20% 60-64
7.80% 8.60% >65

The pie chart shows the percentage of the U.S. citizens with respect to their age group. It would be
also meaningful to classify the citizens as young, adult, and senior. The following table shows the
distribution of the citizens as a function of the new classification:
Age group Young(<20) Adult(20-64) Senior(>65)
Percentage 32 56.9 11.1

Percentage of U.S. Citizens as A function Of New Age Group

11%

32%

Young(<20)
Adult(20-
64)
Senior(>65)

57%

2-12
Problem 2-21.
(a). Pie charts:
Traffic Control Method: flashing
red light

23%
36% Loss of Life
Major Damage
Minor Damage

41%

Traffic Control Method: 2-way

stop signs

18%
Loss of Life
43%
Major
Damage
39%
Minor
Damage

Traffic Control Method: 4-way stop

signs
12%
Loss of Lif e
21%
Major Damage

67% Minor Damage

(b). Emphasis on differences between accident severity:

70
60
50 Loss of Life
40
30 Major
20
Damage
10
0 Minor
Flashin 2-w ay 4-w ay Damage
g red Stop Stop
light signs signs

2-13
(c). Emphasis on differences between traffic control methods:
70
60
50 Flashing red light
40
2-w ay Stop signs
30
20 4-w ay Stop signs
10
0
Loss of Major Minor
Lif e Damage Damage

(d). Column chart:

100%
80%
4-w ay Stop signs
60%
2-w ay Stop signs
40%
20% Flashing red light

0%
Loss of Major Minor
Lif e Damage Damage

(e). The advantage of pie charts over bar charts is that they show the breakdown of accident
severity as a proportion or percentage of 100%. On the other hand, bar charts clearly illustrate the
increase or decrease of the rate of accident severity type from year to year. Column charts also
show the breakdown of severity as a proportion of the whole, but for example, it is unclear as to
the exact percentage of major damages in a 2-way stop sign control method.

Problem 2-22.
Steel Concrete Prestressed Concrete
12
10
Number

8
6
4
2
0
1989 1990 1991
Year

2-14
 1989 1990 1991

For an example year,

Steel Concrete Prestressed Concrete

Year = 1989

Steel Concrete Prestressed Concrete

15
Number

10
Prestressed Concrete
5 Concrete
0 Steel
1989
1990 1991
Year

2.4. Histograms and Frequency Diagrams

Problem 2-23.
0.5m intervals
Interval Frequency Rel. Freq.
1.69 - 2.19 10 0.175439
2.19 - 2.69 17 0.298246
2.69 - 3.19 18 0.315789
3.19 - 3.69 5 0.087719
3.69 - 4.19. 6 0.105263
4.19 - 4.69 0 0
4.69 - 5.19 0 0
5.19 - 5.69 1 0.017544
Total 57 0.982456

2-15
 Histogram of River Stage Data
20
18
16
14
Frequenc

12
10 Histogram of River Stage Data
8
y

6
4
2
0
2.19 - 2.69 - 3.19 - 3.69 - 4.19 - 4.69 - 5.19 -
1.69 - 2.69 3.19 3.69 4.19 4.69 5.19 5.69
2.19 .

Stage (m )

Histogram of River Stage Data

0.35
0.3
Relative Frequency

0.25
0.2
Histogram of River Stage
0.15 Data

0.1

0.05
0
1.69 - 2.19 - 2.69 - 3.19 - 3.69 - 4.19 - 4.69 - 5.19 -
2.19 2.69 3.19 3.69 4.19. 4.69 5.19 5.69

Stage (m)

The difference between this relative frequency histogram and Figure 2-19 is that the relative frequencies are much
smaller due to a smaller interval size.

Problem 2-24.

Range
Bin (m^3/s)
1 <0
2 0-25
3 25-50
4 50-75
5 75-100

2-16
 6 100-125
7 125-150
8 150-175
9 175-200
10 200-225
11 225-250
12 250-275
13 275-300
14 300-325
15 325-350
16 350-375
The shape of this histogram is slightly different than Figure 2-20 in the book. Both histograms are highly skewed.
With the smaller bin sizes in this histogram, you are able to see more variations in the data and the shape looks more
bell-like. Instead of the frequency constantly decreasing it goes up and down and up and down but maintains its
overall shape.

Problem 2-25.

The data vary. In the first interval, the measured frequencies are more numerous than the simulated data; but in the
later intervals, the simulated data have generally greater frequencies than the measured data.

The simulated data can has some differences with the measured data and the usage of the simulation should be based
on the reason why the simulation is done in the first place.

Problem 2-26.
Using an interval of 0.1 ksi, the following table can be constructed.

2-17
Mid- Count
Frequency Cumulative x(count) 2
x (count)
interval (f) value
2.5 1 0.025 1 2.5 6.25
2.6 1 0.025 2 2.6 6.76
2.7 0 0 2 0 0
2.8 0 0 2 0 0
2.9 2 0.05 4 5.8 16.82
3 0 0 4 0 0
3.1 2 0.05 6 6.2 19.22
3.2 5 0.125 11 16 51.2
3.3 1 0.025 12 3.3 10.89
3.4 5 0.125 17 17 57.8
3.5 7 0.175 24 24.5 85.75
3.6 6 0.15 30 21.6 77.76
3.7 3 0.075 33 11.1 41.07
3.8 4 0.1 37 15.2 57.76
3.9 1 0.025 38 3.9 15.21
4 0 0 38 0 0
4.1 1 0.025 39 4.1 16.81
4.2 1 0.025 40 4.2 17.64
Total 40 1 138 480.94
Note: A larger interval can be used and might produce better results than the interval of 0.1 ksi
used herein.
Histogram:

7
6
Number of Tests

5
4
3
2
1
0
2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.1

Concrete Strength (in ksi)

2-18
Frequency Diagram:
0.2
0.18
0.16
Relative Frequency

0.14
0.12
0.1
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0
2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4 4.1 4.2
Concrete Strength (in ksi)

Problem 2-27.
Histogram for pile strength

9
8
7
6
Number of

5
4
Piles

3
2
1
0
5000-6500 6500-8000 8000-9500 9500-11000 11000-
12500
Strength
(Kips)

Frequency diagram for pile strength

0.45
0.40
0.35
0.30
0.25
Frequency
Relative

0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
Strength (Kips)

2-19
Problem 2-28.
Histogram for number of defects

8
7
6
5
Number of

4
boards

3
2
1
0
0.0-0.8 0.8-1.6 1.6-2.4 2.4-3.2 3.2-
4.0
Defect
Numbers

Frequency diagram for number of defects

0.40
0.35
0.30
0.25
Frequency

0.20
Relative

0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
0.0-0.8 0.8-1.6 1.6-2.4 2.4-3.2 3.2-
4.0
Defect
Numbers

Problem 2-29.
Case (a)

8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 75-80 80-85 85-90 90-95 95-100

2-20
 Case (b)

12
10
8
6
4
2
0
50-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-100

Case (c)

15

10

0
55-65 65-75 75-85 85-95 95-105

While based on the same data, the histograms give different impressions of the grade distribution.
Figure (a) indicates a two-peaks distribution, while Figure (b) suggests a uniform distribution and
Figure (c) suggests a one-peak distribution.
Observations: (1) Histograms based on small samples can be misleading; (2) For small and
moderate samples, histograms should be developed for different cell widths and cell bounds before
making conclusions about the data.

2-21
Problem 2-30.
Sample
Mean Std. Dev. k min max range interval
# LAB A LAB B
1 232 241 245.63 6.30 5.87 232.00 256.00 24.00 4.00

2 234 243
3 236 243 Bin Frequency
LAB A
10
4 237 244 232 2
8

Frequency
5 237 244 236 4
6
6 239 244 240 4 4
7 241 246 244 7 2
8 241 246 248 9 0
232 236 240 244 248 252 256
9 243 247 252 2
Bin

10 243 247 256 2

11 244 247
12 246 248
13 246 248
14 246 249
15 246 249
16 247 249
17 247 251 Mean Std. Dev. k min max range interval
18 248 251 249.60 4.69 5.87 241.00 259.00 18.00 3.00
19 248 251
20 248 252 Bin Frequency LAB B
21 249 252 241 3 10
22 249 253 244 5 8
Frequency

6
23 251 253 247 8
4
24 251 253 250 5
2
25 251 254 253 5 0
241 244 247 250 253 256 259
Bin

The average from Lab B is closer to the known concentration of 250 ppb than the average from
Lab A. Also, the measurements from Lab B are more consistent than the measurements from Lab
A because the scatter is smaller – this means that the values deviates to lesser extent from the
average. Overall, Lab B presents the best yearly data.

Problem 2-31.
Using the random number generation feature of excel, you could estimate various sample sizes (n
= 25,50,100, ect.) to find rough boundaries which overestimate and underestimate the population
and then iterate to find an appropriate sample size n-ideal. Continue to generate additional values
(increasing sample size) and periodically re-compute the ordinates of the relative frequency
histogram of the simulated data. Compare each ordinate of the simulated and measured data
histograms by computing the absolute value of the difference. When the difference is less than
some tolerance, say 0.01%, then assume the sample size of the generated data provides data that
represents the measured data. The assumed and simulated data do not agree. The sample size
should be increased until the two data sets agree, because and increased sample size will yield

2-22
more accurate simulated data. I would increase the sample size until the differences are statistically
insignificant.

Problem 2-32.
0-49 10
50-99 24 34
100-149 19
150-199 3 22
200-249 3
250-299 2 5
300-349 1
350-399 0 1
400-449 3
450-499 0 3
500-549 1
550-599 2 3
600-649 4
650-699 1 5
700-749 5
750-799 1 6
800-849 0
850-899 1 1
30
40

25 35

30
20
25

15 20

15
10
10
5 5

0
0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Observations: (1) If the interval is too small, cell ordinates may appear with gaps showing random
variation; (2) for samples with most values in a few cells, the shape of the distribution is not
decisive, even for moderate samples.

2-23
2.6. Descriptive Measures

Problem 2-33.
Monthly variation in the Concentration:
100
Concentration (%)

80
60 Feb.
Apr.
40
June
20 Aug.
0 Oct.
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 Dec.

Ye ar

Annual variation in the Concentration:

100 1980
90 1981
80
1982
70
Concentration

60 1983
50 1984
40 1985
30
(%)

1986
20
1987
10
0 1988
Feb. Apr. June Aug. Oct.
Dec. 1989
1990
Month

Both variables are important. For example, the annual variation is evident for Feb., but less
significant for April. The monthly variation, which is expected, is very evident in the first figure.

Problem 2-34.
Central tendency measures:
40
 xi
a. Mean = i =1 = 3.45 ksi
40
b. Median = (x20+x21)/2 = 3.5 ksi
c. Mode = value of highest frequency = 3.5 ksi

2-24
Problem 2-35.
Central tendency measures:
20

x i
a. Mean = i =1
= 9564.95 kips
20
b. Median = (x10+x11)/2 = 9685.5 kips
c. Mode = value of highest frequency = No mode, no value occurred more than once.

Problem 2-36.
Box-and-whisker plot data:
Feb. Apr. June Aug. Oct. Dec.
Mean 64.82 70.73 81.36 87.82 65.73 58.73
Median 64 72 81 87 66 59
Min. 56 65 77 83 60 50
Max. 74 74 86 94 72 66
xp=90 73 73 85 92 70 64
xp=75 67.5 72.5 84 89.5 67.5 63.5
xp=25 61.5 69.5 79 86 63.5 56
xp=10 59 66 78 86 62 51
Box-and-whisker plot:
The following is the box-and-whisker plot constructed only for the month of February. For
multiple box and whisker plots display, refer to Section 2.5.4 and Figure 2-16 of the textbook.
100

80
m ax
90%
75%
C o n cen tr a tio n m ea n
(% ) m ed ia n
60 25%
10%
m in

40

20

0
F eb.

Frequency Histogram:
Concentration 50-59 60-69 70-79 80-89 90-100
Frequency 0.136 0.348 0.227 0.242 0.045

2-25
 Frequency Histogram of Maximum Daily Ozone
Concentration

0.4

0.3
Frequency

0.2

0.1

0
50-59 60-69 70-79 80-89 90-100

Concentration

Problem 2-37.
Mean = sum/6 = 165.9/6 = 27.65 mg/l
Median = 1.6 mg/l
The extreme value of 157.9 greatly affects the mean but not the median. In general, the median is
much less sensitive to highly deviant measurements, which may be due to recording errors or
random variation. For the data given, the mean value is 27.65 mg/L, while the median value is 1.6.
The median is similar to 5 of the 6 measurements, while the average value is unlike any of the 6
measurements.

Problem 2-38.
Section A Section B
mean 7.58 5.95
median 8 6
mode 9 6

Section A Section B

8 4.5
7 4

6 3.5
3
5

2.5
4
2
3
1.5
2
1
1
0.5
0 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

The grades in section B are bell-shaped and so the three measures of central tendency are very
similar. The grades in section A are skewed towards the lower values so the three measures show
a greater difference with the mode much larger than the mean.

2-26
Problem 2-39.
X = i=1 f i xi
k
where k is the integer number of scores of xi and fi is the frequency of the
number of scores xi. The equation provides a weighted sum of the values
where fi are the weights that must add up to one.

Problem 2-40.
1 n 190
B=  B = = 7.917
i=1 i
n 24
0.5 0.5

 1  1 
S =  (B − B ) 2
=  (B − 7.917) 2 = 2.669
n −1
B i i
23

COV (B) = S B / B = 0.337

Problem
Decade2-41. Mean St. Dev. COV
1920-29 48.5 8.21 0.169
1930-39 45.1 7.78 0.173
1940-49 73.9 14.94 0.202
1950-59 105.4 11.52 0.109
1960-69 116.8 4.76 0.041
1970-79 184.8 46.62 0.252
1980-89 468.9 144.4 0.308
1990-99 711.8 80.11 0.113
Mean
Standard Deviation
800.0
160.00
700.0
140.00
600.0
120.00
500.0
100.00
400.0
80.00
300.0
60.00
200.0
40.00
100.0
20.00
0.0
20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0.00 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

COV

0.35

0.3

0.25

0.2

0.15

0.1

0.05

0
20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
2-27
The mean shows an exponentially increasing trend. Generally, the standard deviation increases
near the end. The COV varies randomly over the decades.

Problem 2-42.
Dispersion measures:
40
 ( xi − mean)2
a. Variance = i =1 = 0.124103 ksi 2
40 − 1
b. Standard deviation = Square root of variance = 0.35228 ksi ksi
c. Coefficient of variation = Standard deviation/mean = 0.1021

Problem 2-43.
Dispersion measures:
20

 (x − mean )
2
i

a. Variance = i =1
= 2270966 kips 2
20 −1
b. Standard deviation = Square root of variance = 1507 kips
c. Coefficient of variation = Standard deviation/mean = 0.1575

Problem
Decade2-44. Mean St. Dev. COV
1920-29 48.5 8.21 0.169
1930-39 45.1 7.78 0.173
1940-49 73.9 14.94 0.202
1950-59 105.4 11.52 0.109
1960-69 116.8 4.76 0.041
1970-79 184.8 46.62 0.252
1980-89 468.9 144.4 0.308
1990-99 711.8 80.11 0.113
Mean
Standard Deviation
800.0
160.00
700.0
140.00
600.0
120.00
500.0
100.00
400.0
80.00
300.0
60.00
200.0
40.00
100.0
20.00
0.0
20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
0.00
20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

2-28
 COV

0.35

0.3

0.25

0.2

0.15

0.1

0.05

0
20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

The mean shows an exponentially increasing trend. Generally, the standard deviation increases
near the end. The COV varies randomly over the decades.

Problem 2-45.
1 1
 
2
S2 = (x − x) 2 = (x 2 − 2xx + x )
n −1 n −1


= 1 n −1  x 2 − 2x  x + x  i
2


=
1
n −1
  2 2
x 2 − 2nx + nx =
1
n −1
 
x 2 − nx
2
 
=
1
 x − (
2 
 x) 2 
n −1 n

Problem 2-46.
Y = X / 3.281
S y = S x / 3.281
S y 2 = S x 2 /(3.281) 2

The general rule is that the units of Y equals the units of X multiplied by the multiplication
constant for transforming X to Y. The variance of Y is the square of the conversion factor times the
variance of X.

Problem 2-47.
Box-and-whisker plot data:
Feb. Apr. June Aug. Oct. Dec.
Mean 64.82 70.73 81.36 87.82 65.73 58.73
Median 64 72 81 87 66 59
Min. 56 65 77 83 60 50
Max. 74 74 86 94 72 66
xp=90 73 73 85 2-2992 70 64
xp=75 67.5 72.5 84 89.5 67.5 63.5
xp=10 59 66 78 86 62 51
Box-and-whisker plot:
The following is the box-and-whisker plot constructed only for the month of February. For
multiple box and whisker plots display, refer to Section 2.5.4 and Figure 2-16 of the textbook.
100

80
m ax
90%
75%
C o n cen tr a tio n m ea n
(% ) m ed ia n
60 25%
10%
m in

40

20

0
F eb.

Frequency Histogram:
Concentration 50-59 60-69 70-79 80-89 90-100
Frequency 0.136 0.348 0.227 0.242 0.045

Frequency Histogram of Maximum Daily Ozone

Concentration

0.4

0.3
Frequency

0.2

0.1

0
50-59 60-69 70-79 80-89 90-100

Concentration

Problem 2-48.
Ranking the values for the 1920-59 period:
123,120,116,108,108,102,98,96,96,93,92,92,90,83,65,65,64,61,61,60,55,54,54,53,53,52,
52,51,51,50,49,49,47,47,46,39,38,38,30,28.
Ranking the values for the 1960-99 period:
870,775,739,736,725,707,700,656,629,619,611,609,581,574,537,426,418,407,317,274,251,229,21
5,210,187,165,155,145,140,128,123,121,121,120,120,115,114,113,112,109.
Thus the necessary characteristics for the two periods:
1920-59 1960-99
max 123.0 870.0
90% 108.0 725.0
75% 93.0 611.0

2-30
 mean 68.2 370.6
median 57.5 262.5
25% 49.0 123.0
10% 38.0 114.0
min 28.0 109.0

Problem 2-49.
A = 2.042 Standard deviation, SD (A) = 1.681 B = 7.917 SD(B) = 2.669

COV(A) = 0.823 COV(B) = 0.337

The moments indicate that the traffic control measures at A have reduced the mean number of
accidents and the monthly variation in the number of accidents.
B-A = 3,2,4,8,7,7,5,6,4,7,7,2,3,12,6,2,6,9,6,6,10,10,1,8 
Mean = 5.875 SD(B-A) = 2.864 COV(B-A) = 0.487
The mean of the differences equals the difference of the means. The variation of the differences is
larger than the variation of either A or B. The relative variation of the difference is slightly larger
than the relative variation of the intersection where controls were not installed.
Intersection B
Intersection A

5
7
4
6
4
5 3

4 3
2
3
2
2
1
1 1

0 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

2-31
The bar charts for the number of accidents per month at the two intersections indicate that the
accident rate at B has a higher mean and greater spread.

2-32
Another random document with
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 IX
THE DAWN OF INTELLIGENCE

The sixth month, though it lay between two great development

periods,—that of learning to use the senses, and that of learning to
carry the body,—was not in itself a period of suspended
development. It is true that its progress, being more purely mental,
could not be so continuously traced as that which came before and
after, but rather cropped up to the surface every now and then in a
more or less broken way; still, no doubt, it really went on in the same
gradual method, one thread and another knitting together into the
fabric of new powers.
It was to this month, as I said in closing the last chapter, that the
beginnings of adaptive intelligence belonged; and this alone marks it
a great epoch.
There is a great deal of discussion about the use of the words
“intelligence,” “reason,” “instinct,” “judgment,” “inference,” and the
like: what these faculties and acts really are, how they come about,
where the line is to be drawn between their manifestations (in the
minds of animals and of man, for instance), and many other
problems. But I think that all agree upon recognizing two types of
action that come under the discussion: one, that which shows merely
the ability to adapt means to ends, to use one’s own wit in novel
circumstances; the other, that which rests on the higher, abstract
reasoning power, such as is hardly possible without carrying on a
train of thought in words. Whether these two types are to be called
intelligence and reason, as Professor Lloyd Morgan calls them, or
whether both come under the head of reason, lower and higher, we
need not trouble to decide. If we call them adaptive intelligence and
higher or abstract reason, we are safe enough.
Even if it be true that any glimmer of the higher reason penetrates
back into the grades of life below the attainment of speech, it must
be only into those just below, and is not to be looked for in our baby
for a long time yet. But the mere practical intelligence that I am now
speaking of seems to appear in babies close on the completion of a
fair mastery of their senses, about the middle of the first year, and it
goes pretty far down in the animal kingdom. Darwin thought the
lowest example of it he knew was in the crab, who would remove
shells that were thrown near the mouth of his burrow, apparently
realizing that they might fall in.
Recent psychologists have shown strong reason for thinking that
such acts as this are at bottom only the same old hit and miss trick
that we have seen from the first, of repeating lucky movements; only
in a higher stage, as the associations that guide the movements
become more delicate and complicated, and memory and
imagination enter in. However this may be as a matter of theoretic
analysis, there is in practice a clear test of difference between the
unintelligent earlier type of actions and those that all agree in calling
intelligent: I have indicated it above, in saying that in intelligent action
one’s own wit must be used “in novel circumstances.” The case must
be such that one cannot fall back on race instinct nor on his own
previous habit.
Our baby, for instance, first used her intelligence to steer her toe into
her mouth, and the way she did it, compared with the way she slowly
settled on the proper movements for getting her rattle into her mouth,
shows clearly the practical difference between unintelligent and
intelligent action, even if both are at bottom made of the same
psychological stuff.
It was just before the sixth month began that the baby accomplished
this feat, but it belongs with the developments of that month. She
was already fond of playing with her toes; and sitting unclad that
evening in her mother’s lap, she first tried to pull them straight to her
mouth. This was, of course, the mere repetition of a frequent
movement, learned by simple association. But when it failed—for the
toes would kick away, just as her arms used to do, carrying the
thumb from her lips—the little one put her mind on corralling them.
She took them in one hand, clasped the other hand about her instep,
and so brought the foot safely up. Still it escaped, and at last she
clasped ankle and heel firmly, one with each hand, and after several
attempts brought the elusive toe triumphantly into her mouth. It is
true that by looking up to us for sympathy in her success, and
relaxing attention, she promptly lost it once more; but she recaptured
it, and from this time on, for weeks, had immense satisfaction in it
every time she was undressed.
There may have been a certain element of instinct in this—getting
the toe to the mouth is so persistent a habit with babies that it seems
as if there must be some inheritance about it; but inheritance could
hardly have given the special devices for managing the
insubordinate foot; there was clearly some use of individual
intelligence. All through the process of learning to manage the body,
the baby showed instinct and intelligence most intricately mingled;
and, indeed, we do so ourselves our lives long.
Of all a baby’s doings this toe business is the one that people find it
most impossible to regard with scientific seriousness. But its indirect
usefulness is considerable. The coöperation of different parts of the
body that it teaches is remarkable; and it must have great influence
in extending the sense of self to the legs and feet, where it has
hitherto seemed but weakly developed. This is important in getting
the body ready for standing and walking.
The baby now showed intelligence in her actions in several little
ways, such as tugging with impatient cries at her mother’s dress
when she wanted her dinner, and leaning over to pluck at the
carriage blanket, under which her mother had laid some flowers to
keep them from her. She slipped a long-handled spoon farther down
in her hand to get the end of the handle into her mouth (almost
exactly the same act as the one that Darwin thought first showed “a
sort of practical reflection” in his child at about the same age: the boy
slipped his hand down his father’s finger, in order to get the finger tip
into his mouth). In the second week of the month she began to watch
things as they fell, and then to throw them down purposely, to watch
them falling.
I have already mentioned certain doubtful imitations in the fourth
month, and a clearer one in the fifth. Now the baby began to imitate
unmistakably. Her uncle had a fashion of slapping his hand down on
the table by way of a salutation to her, and one day (when she had
passed a week of her sixth month) she slapped down her little hand
in return. The next day as soon as her uncle came in, she began to
slap her hand down, watching him, delighted to repeat the
movement back and forth, as long as he would keep it up. She would
imitate me also when I did it; and in the course of the month several
other little imitations occurred.
I have already spoken of the great importance psychologists attach
to imitation. Professor Baldwin makes it the great principle of
development in child and race—all evolution one long history of its
workings; but he uses the word in a far wider sense than the ordinary
one, tracing “imitation” from the mechanical repetition of life-
preserving motions by the lowest living things, up to the spiritual
effort of men and women to live up to their own highest ideals. Even
using the word in its ordinary sense, we know what a potent force in
the little one’s education imitation is. The age, however, at which it is
most efficient is considerably later than the sixth month, and it did
not count for much yet with our baby.
Her sounds had been more various and expressive from the first
days of the month. She had taken up a curious puppy-like whine of
desire or complaint, and a funny little ecstatic sniffing and catching
her breath, to express some shades of delight; and she had also
begun to pour out long, varied successions of babbling sounds,
which expressed content, interest, or complaint very clearly. She
would “talk to” any interesting object (a hedge in gorgeous bloom, for
instance) with this expressive babble, sometimes holding out her
arms to it at the same time. But now, in the second week of the
month, the day after the first decisive imitation, a surprising advance
beyond these means of communication took place.
I must explain that the wise grandma, who believed in encouraging
babies to creep, as the best possible preparation for standing and
walking, had begun to set the little one on her hands and knees on
the big dining-table, putting a hand against her feet as a brace in
case she should be moved to struggle forward. The baby had a habit
of pushing with her feet when she felt anything against her soles;
and pushing thus, thrust herself forward; and as the table-cover slid
with her movement, she would half slide with it, half shove herself,
across the table, grunting with exertion, and highly pleased.
On the day in question I was sitting with her by this table, and she
pulled at the table-cover, as she was wont to pull and handle
anything she could reach. Suddenly she threw herself back on my
arm, and looked earnestly in my face; sat up and pulled at the cover
again, then threw herself back and looked at me again.
“What does she want?” I said, surprised, and hardly able to think that
the little thing could really be trying to say something to me. But
grandma interpreted easily, and when I put the baby on the table
accordingly, to make her sliding sprawl across the surface, she was
satisfied.
This remarkable advance in sign language comes well under our
definition of intelligent action: it was not a stereotyped sign, already
fixed in her mind in association with a certain wish, like holding out
her arms to be taken, but a device of her own, to meet the special
occasion.
Her increased power of communication was not the only way in
which her mind showed itself more wide awake to other people. A
rather uncomfortable phase of this development was timidity. In the
first week of the month, she was frightened by some one who came
in suddenly between her and her mother, in a strange house, and
spoke abruptly, in a deep, unfamiliar voice; and after that she often
cried or became uneasy when strange men took her, or came near
her, especially if they were abrupt. She drew distinct lines, according
to some principle of her own, and certain people were affably
accepted at once, while others, no more terrific that we could see,
made the little lip quiver every time they came near. This timidity
toward people was not at all deeply fixed in her temperament, and
though it lasted all this month, it was never very marked afterward.
Some indications of the dawn of affection also appeared now. The
baby’s desire to touch our faces with her mouth and hands seemed
to have a certain element of attachment in it. The touches were often
soft and caressing, and they were bestowed only on her especial
friends, or on one or two strangers that she had taken at once into
notable favor. Once she leaned out of her baby carriage, calling and
reaching to me, as if she wished to be taken; but when I came to her,
she wanted only to get hold of me, to put her hands and mouth softly
on my face.
Up to about the middle of the month, in spite of her daily exercises
with her toe, the baby had not altogether annexed her legs to her
conscious self and brought them under her orders. She still had to
hold the foot forcibly with her hands all the time her toe was in her
mouth, or it would have kicked away from her as if it was none of
hers. It is likely, too, that she had scarcely any idea of those parts of
her body which she could not see and did not often touch. Indeed,
the psychologists tell us that we ourselves have a decidedly inferior
bodily consciousness in such parts—say between the shoulder
blades. Even her own head must have been mainly unknown
territory to the baby still, in spite of the curiosity she had felt about it
the month before. But now she discovered by a chance touch that
she could investigate it with her hands, and proceeded at once to do
so, with a serious face.
In the latter half of the month, she went a good deal farther toward
getting a roughly complete knowledge and control of her body. She
investigated her ear, her cheek, and the back and sides of her head,
from time to time. She became quite expert in using legs and hands,
head and mouth, together, in get getting hold of her toe. She sat
alone longer and longer, and by the end of the month could have
done so by the half hour, if she had not always upset herself in five
minutes or so by turning and reaching about. She had become very
free in bending, squirming, and changing her position when she lay
on the floor, and early in the third week of the month she had turned
clear over, from back to stomach, in reaching after something. She
followed up the lesson at once, and soon was rolling over whenever
she wished—at first having much ado to get her arm disentangled
from under her, but managing it nicely before long.
It is possible she would have begun creep creeping at this time but
for the impediment of her clothes. She did stumble once upon almost
the right movement, in trying to get forward to something she
wanted; but her feet and knees became entangled in her skirts, and
she gave it up. A week later, she was put into short skirts, but by that
time the ability to roll over had diverted her mind from creeping.
Babies must lose a great deal of their normal activity through
clothes. They are retracing a stage of human history in which clothes
had no part, and this new element must hamper the repetition
immensely. Clothes they must wear—they do not live in tropic forests
nor own hair coverings; but we ought to leave the little limbs as free
as we can without risk from cold. A chance to roll about nude in a
room that is safely warm is a great thing for a baby.
She did not again use any sign language as advanced as when she
had asked to be put on the table; that incident was a sort of herald of
a later stage of development. But in the latter part of the month her
regular means of communication were decidedly better developed
than in the first part. She would coax for a frolic by leaning forward
with an urgent “Oo! oo!” and expressive movements of her body; but
if she was asking instead for an object she wished, or to be taken
into her mother’s arms, there were small but quite definite
differences in tone, expression, and movement, so that we usually
knew at once which she meant.
About a week before the end of the month a great step toward
intercommunication by speech took place. We began to suspect that
the baby knew her own name, she turned to look so often just after it
had been spoken. To test it I stood behind her, and in an ordinary
tone accosted her as Bobby, Tom, Kitten, Mary, Jacob, Baby, and all
sorts of other names. Whenever I said Ruth, Toodles, or Toots, she
turned and looked expectantly at me, but not at any other name.
Now, Ruth is our baby’s proper name; so it was evident that she
really did have some inkling of the sound that meant her.
Not that she could rise yet to any such abstract conception as that of
a person or of a name. But she had learned that this sound was
connected with interesting experiences—with frolics, and caresses,
and trips outdoors, with relief from discomforts, with dinners, and all
the other things that happened when people were attending to her. It
was out of such a beginning as this that full understanding of
articulate speech, in all its logical intricacy, was to develop.
One of the most marked traits of the latter weeks of this month was
the surprising rapidity with which things were grouping themselves in
the baby’s mind by association, in a way that came nearer and
nearer to definite memory. She coaxed for a spoon, and when she
got it was still discontented, till we found that she wished it to have
milk in, as she knew befitted a spoon—though for the milk itself she
did not care at all. She understood what particular frolic was to be
expected from each of us. She turned, when she saw reflections, to
look for the real object. She made demonstrations of joy when she
saw her baby carriage, knowing well what it portended.
In two or three cases, there was at last unmistakable evidence of
true memory, for at least a few minutes. For instance, in the last
week of the month, sitting on her mother’s lap, the baby caught sight
of a knot of loops that adorned the centre of an ottoman close by,
and reached her arms for it. By way of a joke on her, her mother set
her on the ottoman. It was quite beyond the baby’s sense of locality
to divine what had become of the knot, and she looked all about her
diligently to find it, leaning this way and that. By and by her mother
took her back into her arms to nurse; but all the time she was
nursing, she would stop now and then, sit up, and lean over to look
for the lost knot.
At another time, when her mother came into the room with a new hat
on, she reached out her hands for it with delight; her mother
retreated at once, and put the hat safely out of sight, but when some
minutes later the baby saw her again, her first look was at the top of
her head, and seeing it now bare of lace and buttercups, she broke
into a disappointed whimper.
All this time practice in her earlier attainments went vigorously on.
She was watching, handling, reaching after things, all day long.
Especially she watched all the movements of people; often, now, as
they went in and out of doors, as they were seen through windows,
came into sight or disappeared around corners. She must have been
getting thus some idea of the way walls acted in shutting out her
view, and of the relation of visible and invisible positions.
She had perhaps more troubles in this month than ever before, what
with some fear of people, and the discomforts connected with her
first pair of teeth, and also with the beginning of the weaning period.
There were a number of days when her health and spirits were
considerably depressed, and there was a good deal of fretting. When
the teeth were fairly through, and the insufficient food supplemented,
her spirits came up with a bound, and she was more joyous than
ever.
She had her first skin pain in this month—a scratched finger from a
clasp on my shoulder—and wailed with vigor; yet it was forgotten in
a few moments, and never thought of again. It was evident that skin
sensitiveness was still low, and that hurts left no after soreness.
It was about ten days before the end of the month that she first
showed a decided emotional dependence on her mother. She had
been separated from her for some time (by a tedious dentist’s
engagement), had become hungry and sleepy, and had been
frightened by an abrupt stranger. At last she settled into a pitiful,
steady crying—stopping at every angle in the corridor where I
walked with her, and watching eagerly till it was turned, then
breaking out anew when her mother did not prove to be around the
corner. This tragic experience left a much deeper mark than the
physical woes, and for some days the baby watched her mother
rather anxiously, as if she feared she might lose her again unless
she kept her eyes constantly upon her.
And so she was come to the end of her first half year. The breathing
automaton had become an eager and joyous little being, seeing and
hearing and feeling much as we do, knowing her own body
somewhat, and controlling it throughout to a certain extent, laughing
and frolicking, enjoying the vision of the world with a delicious zest,
clinging to us not so much for physical protection as for human
companionship, beginning to show a glimmer of intelligence, and to
cross over with sign and sound the abyss between spirit and spirit.
 X
BEGINNINGS OF LOCOMOTION

When a baby has learned to see things clearly, and has known the
joys of handling them, it is natural that he should soon come to feel
the need of getting to them when they chance to lie beyond arm
reach. Apparently the first impulse to move the whole body does
always come from this desire to get at something; but I doubt if this
remains a very important motive throughout the whole process of
learning. There is so much in that process that is instinctive that the
baby seems to be in great part taken up and carried on by a current
of blind impulse. Then, too, the whole structure of bone, and joint,
and muscle is so fitted to certain positions and movements that in
the mere chance exercising of his limbs he is steadily brought nearer
to the great race acts of balance and locomotion.
One might suppose that with babies sprawling, creeping, and
toddling on every hand, we should not lack evidence on the
beginnings of human locomotion; but as a matter of fact, the stage
that precedes walking is involved in a good deal of confusion.
Records are scanty, and children seem to vary a good deal in their
way of going at the thing. Most of them “creep before they gang”; but
there seems to be a stage before creeping, when, if the child is given
full freedom of movement, he will get over the floor in some cruder
way, rolling, hitching, dragging himself by the elbows, humping
forward measure-worm fashion, or wriggling along like a snake.
Perhaps, as I have already suggested, this is because skirts delay
the natural beginning of creeping, and these other movements
require less freedom of the legs; perhaps there is some deeper
reason connected with race history. Sometimes the baby makes
these less efficient movements answer till walking is acquired, and
never creeps at all.
Our baby, as we have seen, had already made her first ineffective
attempts to pull herself forward and reach something; and lying face
down, unable to turn over, had so propped herself with hands and
knees that when she tried to move she almost stumbled on creeping
unawares. But soon after she was six months old, she discovered
the other half of the trick of rolling—reversing herself from front to
rear as well as from rear to front; and this gave her such an enlarged
freedom that it stopped all aspirations in other directions.
She did not deliberately turn over and over to get anywhere. She
simply rolled and kicked about the floor, turning over when she felt
like it or when she wished to reach something, highly content, and
asking odds of nobody. If by chance she turned in the same direction
a number of times in succession, she would drift halfway across the
room, meeting no end of interesting things by the way—mamma’s
slipper tips, chair rockers, table legs, waste basket, petals dropped
from the vases, and so on. It was a great enlargement of life, and
kept her happy for six or seven weeks.
During this time, her balance in sitting grew secure, so that she could
sit on the floor as long as she chose, occupied with playthings; but
she cared more for the rolling.
It was in these weeks, too, that two great new interests came into
our baby’s life. The first was a really passionate one, and it seized
her suddenly, the week after she was half a year old. The door had
just opened to admit a guest, amid a bustle of welcome, when a cry
of such desire as we had never heard from our baby in all her little
life called our attention to her. Utterly indifferent to the arrival of
company (she who had always loved a stir of coming and going, and
taken more interest in people than in anything else!) she was leaning
and looking out of the window at the dog, as if she had never seen
him before—though he had been before her eyes all her life. She
would think of nothing else; the guest, expert in charming babies,
could not get a glance.
Day after day, for weeks, the little thing was filled with excitement at
sight of the shaggy Muzhik, moving her arms and body, and crying
out with what seemed intensest joy and longing. When he came
near, her excitement increased, and she reached out and caught at
him; her face lighted with happiness when he stood close by; she
showed not the least fear when he put his rough head almost in her
face, but gazed earnestly at it; she watched for him at the window, or
from her baby carriage. No person or thing had ever interested her
so much. Muzhik, on his part, soon learned to give the snatching
little hands a wide berth; and his caution may have enhanced his
charm.
Later in the month, she showed somewhat similar excitement at
sight of a cow. About the same time, too, she first noticed the
pigeons as they flew up from the ground.
This was the beginning of a lasting interest in animals, animal
pictures, animal stories. It is not easy to account fully for this interest,
appearing in such intense degree, at so early an age. All children
show it to some extent, though in many it is mingled with a good,
deal of fear. One is tempted to connect both the fear and the interest
with race history—the intimate association of primitive man with
animals; but a six-month baby is traversing a period of development
far earlier than that of the primitive hunter. Professor Sully has some
good suggestions about the sympathy between children and
animals, but these, too, fail of application to a baby so young.
Probably to her the main charm was the movement, the rough
resemblance to people, joined with so many differences, now first
noticed with the interest of novelty—and (as later incidents made me
suspect) the quantity of convenient hair to be pulled.
The other new interest waked late in the seventh month: that joy in
outdoors that was for many months of the little one’s life her best
happiness. Up to this time, she had liked to be taken out in her baby
carriage, but mainly for the motion. Now, one morning, grandma took
her and sat down quietly on the veranda, saying that she wanted her
to learn to love the sunshine, the birds and flowers and trees, without
needing the baby carriage and its motion. The little one sat in her
lap, looking about with murmurs of delight; and after that, her
happiness in rolling about freely was much greater when we spread
a blanket on veranda or lawn, and laid her there. Within two weeks,
she would coax to be taken outdoors, and then coax till she was put
down out of arms, and left to her own happiness. She would roll
about by the hour, the most contented baby in the world, breaking
occasionally into cries and movements of overflowing joy.
I did not think that at this age the novel sights and sounds outdoors
had much to do with her pleasure; she did not yet notice them much.
Nor could it have been the wideness and freedom of outlook, for she
had not yet come to distant seeing—a hundred feet was as far as I
had ever seen her look. Later, all this counted; but now I thought that
the mere physical effect of activity in the fresh air, together with the
bright light, and perhaps the moving and playing of lights in the
leaves, must make up most of the charm.
In the early weeks of the seventh month idle baby’s rollicking spirits
were striking; in fact, she became for a time quite a little rowdy, ho-
ho-ing and laughing in loud, rough tones, snatching this way and
that, clutching at our hair with exultant shouts and clamor. In the
latter part of the month, her manners were better—indeed, it was
fully a year before I saw them as bad again; but she was much given
to seizing at our faces, flinging herself at them with cries and growls
(exactly as if she had been playing bear), and mouthing and lightly
biting them. And indeed it must be confessed that while our baby’s
behavior was often very pretty for weeks together, she had many fits
of rough play and hoydenish spirits, and our faces and hair were
never quite safe from romping attacks before she was two years old.
This boisterousness was not overflowing spirits (real joyousness
showed itself more gently) and I could never trace its psychological
origin.
At intervals during the month, she continued to improve her bodily
knowledge of herself, investigating her head and face and even the
inside of her mouth, with her fingers; she rubbed her forefinger
curiously with her thumb; she ran out her tongue and moved it about,
trying its motions and feeling her lips. And the very first day of the
month there had appeared that curious behavior that we call
“archness” and “coquetting” in a baby (though anything so grown up
as real archness or coquetry is impossible at this age), looking and
smiling at a person who was somewhat strange, but very amusing,
to her, then ducking down her head when he spoke, and hiding her
face on her mother’s shoulder. Whatever the real reason of such
behavior may be, there is plainly self-consciousness in it. So, too,
when, at seven months old, she began to try deliberately to attract
the interest of callers, wrinkling up her nose with a friendly grimace
till they paid attention to her.
Both these forms of self-consciousness were common after this.
Neither is what we could call human or rational self-consciousness.
Any dog or kitten will show them. But they certainly are something
more than mere bodily feeling of self. If we need a name for it, we
might call it a beginning of intelligent self-perception, as
distinguished both from bodily self-feeling, and rational self-
knowledge—in which the mind, years later, will say to itself clearly,
“This is I.”
We now began to suspect (as she ended her seventh month) that
the baby was beginning to connect our names with us; and when we
tried her by asking, “Where is grandpa?” or “mamma” or “aunty,” she
really did look at the right one often enough to raise a presumption
that she knew what she was about. The association of name and
person was still feeble and shaky, but it proved to be real. In a few
days it was firm as to grandpa (who was quite persona grata,
because he built up blocks for her to knock down, and carried her
about from object to object, to let her touch and examine); and in a
week or two as to the rest of us.
Professor Preyer complains of teaching babies mere tricks, which
have no real relation to their development; and certainly it is a sound
rule that self-unfolding, not teaching, is the way in which a baby
should develop in the earliest years. But Preyer’s baby learned to
wave his hand, and play “patacake,” and show “How big is baby?”
and the rest of it, just as other babies do; mammas and nurses
cannot resist it. And as long as the babies like it, I do not see that it
can do any harm, if it is not overdone. Besides, it may be said that
these standard tricks are all closely related to the sign language, and
so fall in well with the natural development at this stage. And again,
the extreme teachability of the human child is his great superiority
over the brute—all our civilization rests on it; and when the time
comes that he is capable of receiving training, it may be as well that
his power of doing so should be used a little, and that these simple
gesture tricks of immemorial nursery tradition are good exercises to
begin with. It is possible to make a fetich of “self-development,”
beyond all common sense.
At all events, as our baby approached seven months old, her
mamma had begun to teach her to wave by-by. For a couple of
weeks, the mother would hold up the little hand and wave it at the
departing guest, and before long the baby would give a feeble
waggle or two after her mother had let go; next, she would need only
to be started; and a week after she was seven months old she
waved a spontaneous farewell as I left the room. There was a long
history of the gesture after that, for it was lost and regained,
confused with other hand tricks and straightened out, and altogether
played a considerable part in the story of sign language and of
memory, which I shall not have time to relate. But at all times it paid
for itself in the delight it gave the baby: it reconciled her to almost
any parting, and even to going to bed.
Her objection to going to bed, which had been evident since the fifth
month, was because she thought sleeping was a waste of good
playtime, not because she had any associations of fear and
repugnance connected with it. She had never been left to cry herself
to sleep alone, but was rocked and sung to in good old fashion. But
she did show signs at this time of timidity and distress in waking from
sleep, clinging piteously to her mother and crying. She had waked
and cried alone a number of times, and, as I have already said, she
seemed to have formed some associations of fear in this way. But I
think there were deeper reasons for the confused distress on
waking, which from now until halfway through the third year
appeared at times.
I have spoken several times of the ease with which even we grown
people lose our sense of personal identity; and changes in brain
circulation make such confusions especially likely at first waking from
sleep. With babies, whose feeling of identity is but insecurely
established, this must be much more common; moreover, a baby’s
conditions of breathing are less regular than ours, and it is probable
that as he comes out of sleep, and the circulation and respiration of
the waking hours slowly reestablish themselves, he has all sorts of
queer, lost feelings. I was pretty sure, from our baby’s behavior I in
the next two years, that she struggled back to the firm shores of
waking consciousness through dark waters of confusion, and
needed a friendly hand to cling to. This, I suspect, is the secret of the
wild crying in the night, which doctors call “night terror”: it is not
terror, I think, but vague distress, increased by the darkness—loss of
self, of direction, of all one’s usual bodily feeling.
In these sensitive states attending sleep it is likely that some of the
emotional conditions for life are formed, and the ties between mother
and child knit firmest. My observation is that the one the baby loves
most is the one that sleeps close by, that bends over him as he
struggles confusedly back to waking, and steers him tenderly
through the valley of the shadow of sleep; and next, the one that
plays most patiently and observantly with him—not the one that
feeds him.
In her absorption in her growing bodily activity, the baby had taken
no marked steps in intellectual development, though in skill of
handling, and in ability to understand what went on about her and
put two and two together, she made steady progress. Early in the
eighth month, some definite instances of this appeared. She showed
a discreet preference at bedtime for anybody rather than her mother,
and clung vigorously round my neck or her grandfather’s when that
messenger of fate came for her. She dropped things to watch them
fall, with a persistent zeal and interest such as she had not shown in
earlier experiments of the sort. She knew what it meant if one of us
put a hat on, and pleaded with outstretched hands and springing
motion to go too. Once she found that in moving a long stick she was
moving some twigs at its farther end, and kept up the experiment
with curiosity.
It was about this time—the first fortnight of the eighth month—that
taste first became a source of pleasure to our baby. She had been
given an experimental taste of several things before, but beyond the
grimace of surprise (it looks like utmost disgust, but there seems no
doubt that it really means surprise only) with which little babies greet
new tastes, she had shown no great interest in them. Now, as
nature’s supply grew scant, she was introduced more seriously to
several supplementary foods, and at least once rejoiced over the
taste a good deal. Still, she was apt soon to tire of them, and on the
whole taste did not at any time in her first year take a large place
among her interests.
As the middle of the eighth month approached, it was evident that an
advance in power of movement was coming. The baby was getting
up on hands and knees again; she made daily a few aimless
creeping movements; and in her bath she would draw herself to her
knees, and partly to her feet, holding by the edge of the tub, and
somewhat supported by the water. A few days later she drew herself
forward a few inches, flat on her stomach, to get something. But she
still did not catch the idea of creeping, and rolling remained her great
pleasure for another fortnight.
In this fortnight, which brought our baby to eight months old, the
rolling grew very rapid and free. She would now roll over and over in
the same direction, not to get anywhere in particular (she never
learned to use rolling for that purpose), but just for fun. She varied
the exercise with the most lively kicking—heels raised in air and
brought down together with astonishing vigor and zest; and with
twisting about and getting on hands and knees, or even on hands
and feet, prattling joyously, and having a beautiful time all by herself,
for as long as the authorities would leave her alone. I have no note
or memory that she ever tired of it, or asked for attention or change;
it was always some one else who interfered, because meal-time or
nap-time or something had come.
In the last week of the month she learned to raise herself to a sitting
position; and as she could now sit up or lie down at will, she tumbled
about the floor with still more variety and enjoyment. In the same
week she began to pull herself daily quite to her feet in the tub. It
was an ordinary wooden wash-tub which was bridging the interval
between her own outgrown one and the grown-up bath-tub; and she
would stand, leaning her weight partly on her hands, on the edge of
the tub, with her feet planted wide apart, quite on the opposite side,
giving her a pretty secure base.
In this fortnight the baby’s understanding of us and feeling of
nearness to us were noticeably greater. Her attachment to her
favorites was striking. She would cling to us with all the strength of
her little arms, sometimes pressing her lips against our faces in a
primitive sort of kiss. Her desire for our attention was intense—little
arms stretched out, face full of desire, while she uttered urgent cries.
Now and then she was entirely unwilling to eat a meal till the person
she had set her heart on at the moment had yielded to her pleading,
and come to sit close beside her, for company.
She understood one or two little directions—“by-by,” and “patacake”;
or, at least, associated them with the acts. She had some idea of
what “No, no!” meant, and she knew perfectly that she must not keep
paper or flower petals in her mouth, and after biting off a bit would
put out her tongue, laughing, to have the forbidden scrap removed.
And one day when I said to her, “Don’t you want to come to aunty?”
without any gesture, she surprised me by leaning forward and
putting out her hands to me, exactly as if I had reached my arms out
for her. She could not have understood the whole question, for she
hardly understood words at all at the time; but she must have made
out “come,” and, putting it with “aunty,” which she had known for
weeks, got at my meaning.
On the day she was eight months old, at last, the baby half sprawled,
half crept, forward to get something. The early, aimless stages of
locomotion were over, and she was about to start in in good earnest
to learn to creep and to stand.
 XI
CREEPING AND STANDING

Now, at eight months old, began a fortnight of rapid development in

movements, all branching out from the position on hands and knees
which the baby often took as she sprawled on the floor.
First she hit on two ways of sitting up, beginning on hands and
knees. One of them, in fact, had appeared in the last days of the
preceding month. She would tilt over sidewise till she was half sitting,
leaning on one hand, then straighten up, raising the hand—and there
you are, sitting. The other way, a few days later, was to begin as
before on hands and knees, separate the knees, and lift herself over
backward till she was sitting, turning the legs out at the knee. No
grown person but a contortionist could do it, for our hips have not
enough play in the socket to carry the movement through the last
inch or two; but babies’ joints are flexible. This became our baby’s
regular method, and the position it left her in—legs spread out before
her, bent directly out at the knee—was her every-day one for many
months. Most babies, I believe, sit monkey fashion—legs straight,
with soles turned in.
Watching carefully, we were sure that the baby did not at first use
either method intelligently; she wanted to sit up, and shifted and
lifted her body, scolding with impatience, and never knowing whether
she would bring up in the desired position or not, till she found
herself by luck where she wanted to be. In a few days, however, the
right movements were sifted out from the useless ones, and she sat
up and lay down at will.
In the same early days of the ninth month, another movement came
of experimenting while on hands and knees—a backward creeping,
pushing with the hands. The baby at once tried to utilize it to get to
people and things, and it was funny to hear her chattering with
displeasure as she found herself borne off the other way—backing
sometimes into the wall, and pushing helplessly against it, like a little
locomotive that had accidentally got reversed. She soon gave up
trying to get anywhere by this “craw-fishing,” however, and then she
enjoyed it, merely as movement.
The only reason I have heard suggested for this curious back-action
creeping (which is not uncommon just before real creeping) is that
the baby’s arms are stronger than the legs, and as a pushing
movement with them is more natural than a stepping one, a
backward impulse is given, which the baby, as a rule, resents with
comical displeasure.
Next, from hands and knees the baby learned to rise to hands and
feet; to kneel, and then to sit back on her heels; and to make sundry
variations on these positions, such as kneeling on one knee and one
foot, or sitting on one heel, with the other foot thrust out sidewise,
propping her.
In spite of two or three chance forward steps, she was eight and a
half months old before she hit at last on real creeping; then one day I
saw her several times creep forward a foot or two, and presently she
was rolling an orange about and creeping after it. I tried in vain to
lure her more than a couple of feet, to come to me or to get a
plaything; she would creep a step or two, then sit back on her heels
and call me to take her. Until almost the end of this month, indeed,
she would creep for but very short distances, and always to reach
something, not for pleasure in the movement.
But while she fumbled in such chance fashion towards creeping, she
was carried on towards standing by strong and evident instinct. She
pulled herself up daily, not to reach anything, but from an
overwhelming desire to get to her feet; and when she found herself
on them she rejoiced and triumphed. At this stage she almost
invariably used a low object to pull up by, so that she could lean over
it, propping her weight with her hands—or with one hand, as she
grew more confident. It was after the middle of the month that she
first drew herself up, her knees shaking, by a chair, to reach a