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For personal use only. This Just-IN manuscript is the accepted manuscript prior to copy editing and page composition. It may differ from the final official version of record. Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering (Author's Accepted Manuscript)
Improving Estimate at Completion (EAC) Cost of Construction

Projects Using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS)
Seyedeh Razieh Dastgheib1, Mohammad Reza Feylizadeh1, Morteza Bagherpour2, Amin Mahmoudi3,*
Can. J. Civ. Eng. Downloaded from cdnsciencepub.com by North Carolina Agricultural and Technical State University on 04/04/21
1Department of Industrial Engineering, Shiraz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Shiraz, Iran,
2Department of Industrial Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran
3Department of Construction and Real Estate, School of Civil Engineering, Southeast University, 210096 Nanjing, China
Abstract
Earned Value Management (EVM) is a well-known technique for measuring project performance and
progress. Due to EVM's attitude to combining cost and time performance simultaneously, project
performance can be forecasted accurately and this plays a vital role in the future of the projects. In the
current study, the authors employed Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) as a powerful
prediction tool to forecast the completion cost of the projects considering the percentage of risk for
qualitative variables and comparing it with other types of Neural Networks. Since the network structure
is usually tuned based on the obtained results, network optimization procedure is applied using a
conventional method for estimating cost-caused project breakdown. The results showed that ANFIS
had a suitable performance (MSE=0.0003) and based on the sensitivity analysis, EV is recognized as
the most sensitive factor in the project. This paper improves the general estimate at completion formula
by taking uncertain conditions into account.
Keywords: Earned Value Management, Construction Projects, Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference

System (ANFIS), Project Cost Management, Estimate at Completion (EAC)
1. Introduction
Project management is implementing knowledge, skills, tools, and techniques in project

activities to meet the project's requirements and constraints. There are three main constraints
in the projects, including time, cost, and quality (Project Management Institute 2017, Javed and
Liu 2019). The conditions and characteristics of a project affect the constraints that the project
team should focus on them. These constraints have an interactive relationship with each other,
and thus, If too much emphasis is placed on either of these constraints, the burden may fall on
the remaining constraints (Mahmoudi and Javed 2020). For example, if a project is delayed in
terms of time, there is a need to increase the budget to add more resources to complete the same
* Corresponding author Email: pmp.mahmoudi@gmail.com
© The Author(s) or their Institution(s)

For personal use only. This Just-IN manuscript is the accepted manuscript prior to copy editing and page composition. It may differ from the final official version of record. Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering (Author's Accepted Manuscript) Page 2 of 32
amount of work in less time (Kasravi et al. 2019). If it is not possible to increase the budget,
the quality level may need to be reduced to deliver the final product of the project in less time
and with a similar budget (Mahmoudi and Feylizadeh 2018). As a result, any change in time,
cost, and quality constraints can lead to injecting additional risk into the project, and this is the
art of the project manager and project team to manage the constraints properly during the life
cycle of the project. The project can be completed successfully by assessing the situation,
balancing the constraints, and maintaining appropriate relationships with stakeholders.
Evaluating the situation of the project is a continuous activity, with increasing detail of
information during the life cycle of the project, which ultimately leads to more accurate
estimates. One of the main concerns of project managers and stakeholders is an accurate
estimation of the project progress and comparing the project's actual progress with the baseline
plan (Tabei et al. 2019). This question may arise how can we measure the current situation of
the project accurately.
The Earned Value Management (EVM) is a well-known technique for measuring
project performance and progress management. It is used to provide accurate forecasting for
the performance of the projects by integrating scope, time, and cost. EVM was initiated in the
late 1980s. In December 1996, this technique was developed, improved, and adapted in the
standard frame with 32 criteria called the Earned Value Management System (EVMS). In 1998,
the ownership of the EVMS was transferred to the private sector and in July 1998 was
registered as an ANSI/EIA#748 standard.
Many studies have been done on forecasting project cost and schedule at completion
through different fields. However, forecasting Estimate at Completion (EAC) with considering
qualitative variables and comparing with other artificial intelligence methods concurrently is
not under attention in the literature's relevant works. Given that the cost of the project can be
predicted in a variety of methods by changing the EAC formula, this formula cannot handle
other project features such as project type, human resource rights, and employer payment,
which are fuzzy concepts. The ANFIS prepares data for training by reading variables as inputs
and outputs and creating a fuzzy system by defining rules between inputs and outputs. Other
methods that can be compared with the ANFIS are regression and fuzzy regression. The use of
the regression method is limited due to the difficulties in selecting data, including the definite
relationship. Therefore, a method called fuzzy regression was introduced, which is an extension
of classical regression and solved the existing problem. Nevertheless, ANFIS has more
freedom of action than these two methods, it has the ability to define a variety of inputs

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compared with regression, including the fuzzy type, and it has the ability to learn compared to
the fuzzy regression.
Some scholars employed ANFIS for forecasting problems in project management,
which are different from the current study. For example, Hajali-Mohamad et al. (2016)
employed ANFIS and Parallel Structure based on the Fuzzy System (PSFS) to forecast project
completion time. Also, Iranmanesh et al. (2009) used Artificial Neural Network (ANN),
ANFIS, ELFIS, and Conventional Regression to predict the project completion time. The main
contribution of the current study is employing the ANFIS as a powerful prediction tool to
forecast the completion cost of a project by considering the percentage of risk for qualitative
variables and comparing with multi-layer perceptron (MLP), radial basis function (RBF), and
generalized regression neural network (GRNN) as types of NNs.
The structure of this paper is as follows: Section 2 provides a comprehensive review on
cost foresting and earned value management. in Section 3, the methodology of the study is
introduced, which includes a problem statement, notation, model, and perceptions. Research
findings and network optimization are presented in Sections 3 and 4, respectively. Also,
sensitivity analysis is presented in Section 5. Finally, the conclusions and further researches
are explained in the last section.
2. Literature review
Decision-making is an integral part of project management, and it appears in different

forms (Mahmoudi et al. 2020). EAC is a well-known approach to assist project managers in
making sound project decisions. To make the readers familiar with these two important and
interrelated approaches, this section presents an overview of these two approaches.
Some scholars are pioneers in the field of EVM and improved it basically. Christensen
(1998) considered the benefits and costs of EV, the concept of EV, and the criteria related to it
comprehensively, making the EVM evaluation process more comfortable. Anbari (2003)
illustrated the major aspects of the EV method and used graphical tools to assess project
performance. Besides, logical extension and useful simplification are provided to enhance the
application of this method in the project management context. Kim et al. (2003) proposed a
model to implement EVM methodology in different organizations and projects effectively.
Moreover, their model reduces the EVM problem, improves utilities, and considers the
implementation process of the EVM in the projects. Cioffi (2006) proposed the new rules and
scientific notations for EV calculation and increased its flexibility. Lipke and Henderson (2006)

presented the Earned Schedule (ES) method, which could extract schedule information from
EVM and made a reliable indicator for determining project time performance.
The EVM was extended and employed by many scholars as well.. Vanhoucke and
Vandevoorde (2007) focused extensively on EV methods for predicting the total duration. They
presented a simulation study that controlled the level of uncertainty, time horizon, and forecast
accuracy of projects. Eleyan and El-Sawalhi (2010) proposed an analytical framework to
highlight the weakness of both earned value and balanced scorecard. Pajares and López-
Paredes (2011) presented new time and cost control indices to integrate project risk
management and EVM. Warburton (2011) introduced the EV model based on software projects
that demonstrated how to estimate the project's final cost with fewer variation results than EAC
calculations. Zhong and Wang (2011) introduced the concept of EV weight and presented EV
weight formulations and analysis processes. Naeni et al. (2011) also presented a new fuzzy
earned value model that developed and analyzed EV indices' advantages, time, and cost
estimation at completion under uncertainty. Huang and Cheng (2011) created the Evolutionary
Gaussian Process Inference Model (EGPIM) by integrating the Gaussian process (GP), Particle
Swarm Optimization (PSO), and machine learning technology. This work considered the
application of EGPIM for measuring EAC, and results showed that trained EGPIM had better
performance than other mentioned methods. Naderpour and Mofid (2011) discussed EV
concepts, formulation, performance measurement, and predicting project progress. Their
reports showed that project managers who used the EVM method could decrease their risky
decisions in critical conditions. Caron et al. (2013) developed a Bayesian model in the EV
framework to determine a confidence interval for project completion time and cost. The results
showed that using this method in gas and oil projects can improve the accuracy of estimation
in the EVM framework. Acebes et al. (2013) presented a graphical framework for controlling
and monitoring the projects to integrate project time and cost dimension with risk management,
so it needed less data for EVM analysis and Monte-Carlo simulation. Kim et al. (2015)
employed the EVM system to provide an integrated system for evaluating the performance in
building construction projects. They declared that this system could measure and forecast the
performance of the projects with fewer errors compared with existing methods. Mahmoudi et
al. (2019) proposed the Grey EVM method to overcome the existing uncertainties during
project performance and compared it with fuzzy EVM, which showed a better performance.
Also, they have provided a comprehensive sensitivity analysis on the EAC formula under
uncertainty. Bagherpour et al. (2020) addressed important factors in the EVM method and their

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relationship with each other using interpretive structural modelling. Hendiani et al. (2020)
applied Z-numbers in the EVM method which could consider reliabilities and possibilities
simultaneously. Also, they have compared it with fuzzy EVM and better performance was
resulted.
Some Scholars have paid particular attention to improving the forecasting in the EAC
and EVM context. Vandevoorde and Vanhoucke (2006) compared the different forecasting
project methods by using EV criteria and presented a generic formula for forecasting project
duration under different situations. Lipke et al. (2009) introduced the application of statistical
methods for EVM and ES indices. They also improved the capabilities of managers' decision-
making by using reliable forecasting cost and time methods. Cheng et al. (2010b) proposed a
model that combined two artificial intelligence methods called Support Vector Machine (SVM)
and Fast Messy Genetic Algorithm (FMGA) to produce Evolutionary SVM Inference Model
(ESIM) for forecasting project cost. Kim and Reinschmidt (2010) presented a novel forecasting
method based on the ES and Kalman filter methods. They also illustrate the Kalman filter
forecasting application in practical projects and its advantages to extract more information
about the project and related risks. Willems and Vanhoucke (2015) presented classified
literature about project control and EVM for a particular purpose. They evaluated the
performance of the three promising deterministic methods and their combination on real-world
projects. In their research, two methods unified activity sensitivity and rework in EVM for time
forecasting, and the third method calculated schedule performance from time-based metrics.
The results showed that both of the EVM extensions present accuracy-enhancing ability for
various applications, and the performance of EDM (t) was very similar to the best EVM
methods.
Based on the studies mentioned earlier, different approaches were employed in EVM
and EAC to achieve better results. In this regard, the current study aims to use the ANFIS
method to predict the completion cost of construction projects more accurately, considering
factors such as project type, human resource rights, employer payment, etc. In the next section,
the methodology of the current study is presented.
2. Methodology
2.1 Problem Statement
Frequently, the lack of planning in projects will result in wasting time, resources, and
cost. This problem is tangible in big projects, which might have many tasks, facilities,

contractors, stakeholders, and billions of financial and human resources. These projects need
accurate planning, controlling, executing, time, and cost prediction to be completed by the
deadline and staying competitive.
Using the standard method for estimating cost-caused project breakdown is vital for the
project managers. Many factors affect project performance, which were not considered in
general EAC formulas, such as labor experience, types of projects, project risk, and weather
conditions. This is the dark side of this formula because it is not suitable for uncertain
conditions. For example, when the projects encounter delays, the required resources are
increased to finish the project. It can lead to an increase in the project budget, and the final
quality of the project may be decreased in less time with the same budget. Stakeholders have
different ideas about this issue and may make various decisions. This is a kind of uncertain
situation which puts the project at risk condition. In this paper, a project is considered with four
inputs (EV, PV, AC, and contractor payment), one output (EAC), and four billion dollars as a
total budget, including many tasks and resources. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to discover
an appropriate model that would be flexible enough to forecast the project costs with minimum
error and consider different aspects of the real-life projects.
According to the descriptions mentioned above, the methods that are capable of taking
all aspects of projects (both qualitative and quantitative) might yield better forecasting. In this
paper, well-known methods like NNs, because of the learning capability, are used and are
combined with fuzzy concepts to create a comprehensive applied model for the forecasting
project cost. A percentage of risk is used for such a qualitative variable to create new EAC for
being given to the NNs and ANFIS as an output. If project managers are able to plan and
forecast EAC accurately, they can use their resources more efficiently and be ready in critical
situations to make optimal decisions.
2.2 Notations
In this section, the basic notations of the EVM method have been reviewed. These notations
are as follows:
Planned Value (PV) is the planned cost for planned works up to the status date.
Earned Value (EV) is the planned cost for works that were actually performed until the
status date.
Actual Cost (AC) is the actual cost for actual work performed by status date.

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The Cost Performance Index (CPI) and Schedule Performance Index (SPI) are control indices,
while the ideal condition is SPI=1 and CPI=1.
Where the budget at completion (BAC) represents the budgeted cost of the project, Cost
Variance (CV) represents the variation between AC and EV, Schedule Variance (SV) is the
variation between PV and EV, and EAC forecasts the total cost at the end of a project. A brief
definition of EV parameters is as Eqs. (1) to (5).
= EV/ (1)
= EV/AC (2)
( ) = AC + ( EV)/ (3)
(Cos ! ) = EV AC (4)
( !" #$ ! ) = EV PV (5)
Whenever CPI < 1 and CV < 0 the project is over budget, and If the CPI 1 and CV 0, the
project is under budget.
All the above parameters applications are shown in Figure 1.
Fig. 1 Earned value parameters
So far, many studies have been conducted to improve the calculation procedures of the
EAC. The type of EAC formula is a matter of discussion, and there is no consensus on using
the unique formula. Equation (6) is the general one, which can consider the quantitative aspect
of a project.
( ) (6)
# = +
&
In addition to the above-mentioned affecting factors, there are qualitative ones such as
contractor payments, which increase the project's risk and are not considered in this formula.
These may lead to an increase in time delay, cost, waste of resources, etc. For example, any
delay in contractor payments may increase the project's duration, influencing the SPI and
finally increasing the EAC value in the project. In some construction projects, any change in
time and amount of contractor payments may stop the project for a while. It may change the
EAC value completely. The original EAC formula cannot consider the risks of the contractor
payments, which needs an improvement to solve this matter. These reasons showed a sign of

weakness in Eq. (6); thus, this paper seeks to find an appropriate model to solve this problem
by considering qualitative factors and better predicting project cost using NNs and ANFIS.
2.3 The Proposed Model

The proposed model, which is shown in Figure 2, included EV, PV, AC, and contractor
payment as inputs and EACnew as an output.
Fig. 2 The proposed process flowchart for cost estimation
Step1: Simulate EV, PV, AC after planning and executing 60% of the project using the normal
distribution. It should be noted that the EAC can be predicted well when the project's progress
is greater or equal to 60%. It is not suggested to predict EAC when the project's progress is less
than 15% (Zwikael et al. 2000).
Step 2: Calculate EACold using Eq. (7). It should be noted that the weight of SPI and CPI should
be provided based on the project manager's viewpoint. Based on the authors' experience in
construction projects, the default values are 0.8 and 0.2 for CPI and SPI, respectively.
( ) (7)
# = +
(0.8 & + 0.2 & )
Step 3: Add the qualitative variable as a new input, which considers a percentage of risk and
simulates EACrisk. It should be noted that EACrisk is determined by ANFIS.
Step 4: Calculate the output called EACnew. Since the # cannot consider the risks during
estimation, there is a need to consider the + in the , which is simply done in Eq.
(8).
, = # + + (8)
Step 5: Normalizing inputs (EV, PV, AC, and contractor payment) and output by Eq. (9).
(. min(.)) (9)
- = 0.8 & ( ) + 0.1
(max(.) min(.))
Step 6: In MLP, the network structure is created by determining the number of neurons, hidden
layer, and transfer function. The developed network is trained and is tested. If it has excellent
performance, the output is generated. Otherwise, the network structure should be changed until
excellent performance is achieved.
Step 7: In RBF, the network structure is created by determining the spread and a maximum
number of neurons and continued as step 6.

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Step 8: In GRNN, the network structure is created by determining the spread and is continued
as step 6.
Step 9: Compare the NN outputs and choose the best one as a predictor from which MLP was
selected.
Step 10: In ANFIS, the Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) and training algorithm are generated by
choosing one of the genfis1 (using grid partition), genfis2 (using subtractive clustering) or
genfis3 (using FCM clustering), and hybrid (the combination of least-squares method and
BackPropagation) or BackPropagation respectively. The created network is tested, and if
suitable performance is achieved, the output is generated. Otherwise, the FIS structure and
training algorithm should be changed until excellent performance can be obtained.
Step 11: Types of NNs are compared with ANFIS, and the best one is chosen, which in this
case was ANFIS.
Step 12: Sensitivity analysis is done, and EV is selected as the most influential variable.
2.4 Perceptions
2.4.1 Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System model
Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System is a Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) in the

frame of Neural Networks (NNs), which uses fuzzy reasoning in the Sugeno type and NNs
learning algorithm. It is helpful for solving nonlinear and complicated engineering problems
(Wang and Elhag 2008). The structure of ANFIS with two inputs, two rules, and one output in
which each input has two membership functions (MFs) is shown in Figure 3.
Fig. 3 ANFIS structure (Iranmanesh et al., 2009)
The steps can be presented as follows (Jang 1993):
Assume - two inputs X, Y, and one output Z.
Rule 1: If x is A1 and y is B1,
Then f1 = p1x + q1y +r1
Rule 2: If x is A2 and y is B2,
Then f2 = p2x + q2y +r2
In layer 1, each node is adaptive with this output.
516 = 7 (.) = 1, 2 516 = 7 (-)

2
= 3, 4 (10)

Where x (or y), i, and Ai (or Bi) are the input, node number, and a linguistic label,
respectively, the membership functions could be anything such as triangle, trapezoidal,
Gaussian, or generalized Bell function of a fuzzy set.
In layer 2 each node is fixed, and the product of all the incoming signals is its output.
526 = , = 7 (.) × 7 (-) = 1, 2 (11)
The output of each node shows the firing strength of a rule.

In layer 3 each node is fixed like layer 2 and the proportion of the firing strengths of the rules
are calculated based on Eq. (12).
, (12)
536 = , = = 1, 2
,1 + ,2
In layer 4 each node is adaptive, and the function is as Eq. (13).
546 = , ; = , ( . + < - + ) (13)
Where pi, qi and ri are consequent parameters.

In layer 5 the existence of a single node is fixed and computes the total output based on Eq.
(14).
>,;
556 = >,; = >,
(14)
Figure 4 shows the five layers of ANFIS for this case, which is explained above.
Fig. 4 ANFIS structure
Table 1 shows the parameters of the ANFIS structure.
Table 1 ANFIS Model Structure

This model has four inputs and one output. BackPropagation, Fuzzy C-Means (FCM), and
weighted average method are used for the training algorithm, generating FIS and de-fuzzifying
the output, respectively.
2.4.2 Multi-Layer Perceptron
Many studies have been carried out in this field, such as Hegazy and Ayed (1998) , who
presented a cost estimation model for highway projects by NNs. They used three approaches:
(1) simplex optimization, (2) genetic algorithms (3) BackPropagation training for determining
NN weights that affect improving the performance of the network. Finally, sensitivity analysis
has been done. Lee et al. (1998) offered the combination of NNs and clustering analysis
10

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methods for estimating the cost of development, which leads to an increase in the efficiency of
learning and accuracy of cost estimation. Zhang et al. (1998) considered new applications of
NN in forecasting, intending to create a combination of published studies in this area and give
a good insight into NN modeling. Murat DM N and Zeynep O (2004) considered the
benefits of the NNs for cost estimation problems in the initial stage of the construction design
process. Omidi et al. (2017) proposed an ANN model to solve two models for portfolio
selection with uncertain variables. Sheikhi and Babamir (2017) presented a predictive
framework using a recurrent ANN. Bhandarkar et al. (2005) used ANN for the analysis of video
sequences. Cavalieri et al. (2004) compared the results of two different methods, artificial
neural networks (ANNs) and parametric model, for forecasting production costs in Italy, in
which NN has better performance than the parametric model. Kim et al. (2004) considered the
performance of three cost estimation methods called Case-Based Reasoning (CBR), (NNs),
Multiple Regression Analysis (MRA) in which NNs have the best performance, but in some
cases, CBR is better than NNs. Sonmez (2004) explained the benefits and drawbacks of
conceptual cost estimation methods and presented three linear regression models to determine
how variables affect the cost of the project.
Moreover, they developed two NN models to evaluate the possible need for nonlinear
and interaction conditions in the regression model. Attarzadeh and Ow (2010) proposed a
Constructive Cost Model (COCOMO) based on NNs, which could interpolate and be validated
by experts and increase the reliability of the estimated cost. Bhatnagar and Bhattacharjee
(2010) employed NNs and a multi-regression model to forecast the software development
effort. Results showed that NN in complex and nonlinear relation could predict as well as
experts. Cheng et al. (2010a) offered Evolutionary Fuzzy Hybrid Neural Network (EFHNN),
which is a combination of Genetic algorithm, High Order Neural Networks (HONN), Hybrid
Neural Network (HNN), Fuzzy Logic (FL) to enhance the cost estimation accuracy. Sonmez
(2011) presented an integrated model of NNs and bootstrap method to estimate the project cost
range. This approach created a robust and practical choice for conceptual cost estimation. Wang
et al. (2012) predicted project cost and schedule success by using SVM and ANNs ensemble.
The proposed ANNs model showed good results in prediction. Wang et al. (2013) integrated
the BackPropagation NN and PSO to create an estimating model for plastic injection cost and
to reduce the complexity of traditional cost estimation model. The PSO is used to optimize the
BackPropagation parameters. The result showed that the convergence rate and precision are
improved. Özcan and Q (2014) tried to create an intelligent system for forecasting the
11

total cost of sheet metal stamping die by examination of multiple regression analysis and the
ANN performance using three cost-estimation models. The result showed that the performance
of the ANN is superior than the traditional linear regression analysis models and the
conventional approach employed for estimate the cost. Nassif et al. (2016) compared different
types of NN models (multi-layer perceptron, general regression NN, radial basis function NN,
and cascade correlation NN) based on some factors such as predictive accuracy and
classifications of the importance of the inputs to estimate software project cost. The results
showed that the four models in a high percentage of datasets tend to overestimate. The
correlation of the NN was better than the other three models in the majority of the datasets.
Nowadays, NNs are frequently applied to perform different functions such as
forecasting, data mining, process modeling, pattern recognition, and classification. NNs
include various attributes that lead to solving complex problems more flexibly and precisely.
In this paper, MLP is used, which can choose an appropriate number of neurons and layers, as
well as nonlinear mapping with excellent precision. The network could learn the relation and
weights distributed between layers based on the Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm. Figure 5 and
Table 2 shows the layers of NN and summaries of its structure, respectively.
Fig. 5 NN layers
Table 2 NN structure
2.4.3 Radial Basis Function Network
A radial basis function network is a type of ANN that uses RBF as an activation
function. The output is the product of bias, the distance of inputs vector, and weights vector.
This network was introduced by Broomhead and Lowe (1988). In this paper, RBF structure is
made by spread = 0.5 and max neuron = 2.
2.4.4 General Regression Neural Network
General regression neural network was introduced to solve linear and nonlinear
regression problems. It is a type of RBF network, which is used to estimate functions and has
three layers; its hidden layer includes radial basis neurons with a Gaussian transfer function. In
designing GRNN, each training vector has its neuron in the hidden layer. We used spread=0.02
for building the GRNN structure.
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3. Research Findings
The inputs are randomly generated using a normal distribution, and EACold is calculated
by Eq. (7) to predict and validate the proposed model. Due to different reasons, such as a lack
of budget and contractor payment, uncertain situations may be observed. Therefore, some risks
are supposed to explain the condition of our problem under consideration in this paper. For
comparing ANFIS and NN methods, MSE and RMSE are used by the following formulation
as an index of performance. The performance of ANFIS in forecasting with minimum error is
shown in Table 3.
1 2 (15)
? = (@ @)
A? = ? (16)
Table 3 Comparing the error of forecasted results

The results of methods (ANFIS, MLP, GRNN, and RBF) are compared with the results
obtained by the EAC formula (mentioned in Equation (7)) by analysis of variance (ANOVA).
{CC :7:7 E=77 = 76F == 1,2,...,5

0
1
1 2
F
7 =7
3 4 5
EF (17)
As indicated in Table 4, considering significance level of S = 0.05, the null hypothesis

is rejected, because P-value is less than confidence level (P-value = 0 T S# also F0= 1.14E+14
V F0.05,4,495 = 2.389948. It means that the proposed methods are not the same, and at least one
of them has a different performance, which was ANFIS, as mentioned in Table 3.
Table 4 Comparison of ANFIS, NNs, and EAC formula outputs
4. Network Optimization
Since the network structure is usually tuned based on expert judgments to optimize
network structure for each network, the network optimization procedure is applied in this paper.
For MLP structure, as it is shown in Table 5, the parameters like transfer function (TF) and
several neurons at hidden layers are examined. The results show that a network with tansig TF
has lower MSE than logsig TF one, and the performance of the network becomes worst by
decreasing the number of neurons in the hidden layer.
Table 5 Improvement of MLP structure
13

RBF parameters, max neuron and spread are considered by fixing one and changing the other.
After analysis, the result is as Table 6.
Table 6 Improvement of RBF structure

The MSE becomes worst after 16 neurons as a max number was reached with spread=1.
By increasing the value of spread by two, the obtained MSE becomes better; however, by
increasing and decreasing this factor, the MSE again deteriorated.
The network with 15 neurons and 2 spreads is the best-known one. The same process
is done for the GRNN network parameter, spread, and the best performance, as shown in Table
7 is the network with spread = 0.
Table 7 Improvement of GRNN structure

ANFIS structure has two essential parts, learning algorithm method and FIS generation.
There are three methods for generating FIS and two approaches for the learning algorithm. The
last FIS method is not well-tuned for this size of the project and might fall in the loop. As
shown in Table 8, the methods of generating FIS are examined by both learning algorithms,
and finally, the structure with the FCM method for generating FIS and BackPropagation as a
learning algorithm is chosen as the best-known structure for ANFIS.

In this part, three types of NNs and ANFIS have been optimized and then compared using
ANOVA.
{CC :7:7 E=77 = 6F7 ==1,2,3,4

0
1
1
F
2 3 74
EF
(18)
Table 9 Comparison of ANFIS and NNs methods

As it is shown in Table 9, p-value = 0.729468 V S = 0.05, thus there is no reason to
reject null hypothesis, also F0 = 0.433725 T F0.05,3,76 = 2.724944. As shown in Fig. 6, the
medians of boxes are more or less located in the same area. It means that there is no meaningful
difference among optimized networks.
Fig. 6 Boxplot of optimized networks
5. Taguchi experiment and Sensitivity Analysis
Taguchi experiment is employed here to understand at which level the inputs show a
better performance. Thus, three levels are supposed for each input as follows: low (1), average
14

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(2), and high (3). The optimal level of each factor is as follows: EV (2), PV (3), AC (1), and
EACrisk (1) and it is shown in Fig. 7.
Fig. 7 S/N ratio
Using Equation (18), the ANOVA is done to understand if all factors have the same effects on
output.
As indicated in Table 10, P-value = 0 T S = 0.05 and F0= 1546935 V F0.05,3,396 =
2.627441 thus the null hypothesis is rejected. It shows that the factors are not the same, and at
least one has more effect on output. The sensitivity analysis is done to discover this factor.

Sensitivity analysis is the study of changing inputs and considering the effects on the
output patterns. In this paper, the inputs were increased and decreased to determine the most
sensitive parameter. The EV is found as the most sensitive parameter among all inputs and the
result has been shown in Fig. 8. In this figure, the input value is changed by dragging the dashed
blue lines. The dashed red curves below and above the response are shown the confidence
intervals for new observations. The significant effect of increasing or decreasing EV on EAC
is evident in Fig. 8.
Fig. 8 Interactive Response Surface Methodology
6. Conclusion and Further Research
Using the EAC formula is common to predict the final cost of construction projects.
Nevertheless, it cannot consider some crucial factors such as contractor payments which are
critical in construction projects. Since contractor payment is a qualitative factor, there is a need
to employ a method that can handle qualitative data. Several types of NNs and ANFIS are used
to predict the EAC in the current study. The results showed that MLP has better performance
among other NN methods by the error of 0.0005. The improvement of forecasting accuracy by
using ANFIS is noticeable. The error of it is 0.0003, which is less than MLP. Also, by using
sensitivity analysis, the most sensitive input (EV) is determined. However, there are some
limitations to use ANFIS in construction projects in a real-life situation. The main limitation is
providing comprehensive and appropriate data from the company's performed projects to train
the ANFIS properly. Therefore, the authors used random data for checking the performance of
the proposed model. The second limitation is difficulty in forecasting the EAC in the projects
in the early stages.
15

It should be noted that these limitations are common in forecasting methods. For further
research, this method with other existent methods like Emotional Learning by Fuzzy Inference
System (ELFIS) can be compared. Using additional fuzzy variables is further recommended.
Acknowledgement
The authors would like to pay special thankfulness to the anonymous reviewers and the
associated editor for their valuable comments and suggestions.
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List of Figures:
Fig. 3 Fig. 3 ANFIS structure (Iranmanesh et al. 2009, ] and Erol 2017)
Fig. 5 NN layers
Fig. 7 S/N ratio
19

For personal use only. This Just-IN manuscript is the accepted manuscript prior to copy editing and page composition. It may differ from the final official version of record.
Cost
AC
PV
EV
20
Date
Current
SV

BAC
CV
Time
Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering (Author's Accepted Manuscript)
Page 20 of 32
Page 21 of 32
Project start
Budget & schedule

planning
Procurement &
executing
Step 1
Earned Value (EV)

Planned Value (PV)
Actual Cost (AC)
Step 3 Step 3
calculate Contractor
Step 2 EACold
Add new varaible
payment
Step 4
calculate EACnew Calculate
output
EACnew=EACold+EACrisk EACrisk
Step 3
Normalizing inputs
Step 5 and output
Inputs
Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy

Inference System (ANFIS)
Neural Network (NN) Step 7 Step 8
Step 6
Generate FIS by choosing
one of this method
Multi layer Radial Basis Generalize
Perseptron Function Regression Neural
(MLP) (RBF) Network (GRNN)
grid partition (genfis1) subtractive FCM clustering
clustering (genfis2) (genfis3)
Determine the
Determine the spread Determine
Number of neurons,
Determine types and Number of Determine Determine Number and the max Number the spread
hiddenlayer and
Membership Function rad of cluster of neurons
transfer function
Training the
Training the Training the network
network network
Select train algorithm
Testing the
Testing the network
Testing the
network network
Backpropagation Hybrid
Step 10
Is the system No
Is the system No Is the system No
has good
È^z
has good
Testing has good performance?
performance? performance?
Yes
Yes Yes
Is the system No Output of MLP Output of RBF Output of GRNN

has good
performance?
Compare types of NN
Yes
Step 9
MLP has the best
Forecasting EAC with
minimum Error forecasting with min error
Compare types of NN with ANFIS
Step 11
ANFIS has the best
forecasting with min error
Sensitivity Analysis
Step 12
EV is the most
sensitive
21

y
x
B2
B1
A2
A1
layer 1
Forwards
M
M
layer 2
W2
W1
22
N
N
layer 3
Fig. 3 ANFIS structure (Iranmanesh et al. 2009, ]

W1
W2

x
x
A2
A2
layer 4
y
y
Backwards
and Erol 2017)

layer 5
f
Page 22 of 32
For personal use only. This Just-IN manuscript is the accepted manuscript prior to copy editing and page composition. It may differ from the final official version of record. Page 23 of 32
23

.
.
.
.
X2
X1
Xn
Input layer
24
Fig. 5 NN layers
hidden layer

output layer
Page 24 of 32
25

26
Fig. 7 S/N ratio

Page 26 of 32
27

List of Tables:
28

Page 29 of 32
AC, PV, EV, Contractor Payment (Inputs)

Inputs and output
& EAC (Output)
Training Method Back Propagation (BP)
Input layer FIS generation method: FCM
Epoch Iteration: 100
Output layer MF Type: linear
Defuzzification Method: Weighted Average

Fuzzy Logic Info.
Type: Sugeno
Inputs and output AC, PV, EV, contractor payment

(Inputs) & EAC (Output)
Training Method: Levenberg Marquardt
Input layer Number of Neurons: 4
Number of Neurons: 2
Hidden Layer
Transformation Function: Tansig
Number of Neurons: 1
Output layer
Transformation Function: Purelin
ANN Info. Type: Multilayer Perceptron
29

Method MSE RMSE R
MLP 0.0005 0.0226 0.9883

GRNN 0.0093 0.0962 0.8625
RBF 0.0057 0.0756 0.7906
ANFIS 0.0003 0.0181 0.996
ANOVA
Source of Variation SS df MS F P-value Fcritical
Between Groups 4.08E+16 4 1.02E+16 1.14E+14 0 2.389948
Within Groups 44273.5 495 89.44141 - - -
Total 4.08E+16 499 - - - -
Input Output
Hidden Layer TF MSE TF MSE
Layer Layer
4 2 1 Tansig 0.0005 logsig 0.00290
MLP 4 5 1 Tansig 0.0014 logsig 0.00242
4 7 1 Tansig 0.0028 logsig 0.0025
4 10 1 Tansig 0.0055 logsig 0.0042
4 15 1 Tansig 0.0149 logsig 0.0068
30

Page 31 of 32

Max neuron Spread MSE
2 1 0.0017
5 1 0.0007
7 1 0.0005
10 1 0.0004
15 1 0.00038
16 1 0.0005
RBF
15 2 0.0002
15 3 0.0004
15 0.01 0.037
15 0.1 0.0232
15 0.2 0.0068
15 0.5 0.0008
15 0.8 0.0005

Spread MSE
0.01 0.0067
0.02 0.0093
0.07 0.0049
GRNN 0.1 0.0038
0.2 0.0093
0.3 0.0145
0.5 0.0248
1 0.0292
Generate FIS Learning algorithm MSE
FCM backpropagation 0.0003
FCM Hybrid 0.009
ANFIS subtractive clustering Back propagation 0.0428
subtractive clustering Hybrid 0.0402
grid partitioning Back propagation Hang
grid partitioning Hybrid Hang
31

ANOVA
Source of Variation SS df MS F P-value F0.05,3,76

Between Groups 0.057887 3 0.019296 0.433725 0.729468 2.724944
Within Groups 3.381127 76 0.044489 - - -
Total 3.439015 79 - - - -
ANOVA
Source of Variation SS df MS F P-value Fcritical
Between Groups 2.9E+19 3 9.67E+18 1546935 0 2.627441
Within Groups 2.47E+15 396 6.25E+12 - - -
Total 2.9E+19 399 - - - -
32

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Page 1 of 32

Improving Estimate at Completion (EAC) Cost of Construction

Keywords: Earned Value Management, Construction Projects, Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference

Project management is implementing knowledge, skills, tools, and techniques in project

* Corresponding author Email: pmp.mahmoudi@gmail.com

© The Author(s) or their Institution(s)

© The Author(s) or their Institution(s)

Decision-making is an integral part of project management, and it appears in different

© The Author(s) or their Institution(s)

© The Author(s) or their Institution(s)

2.1 Problem Statement

© The Author(s) or their Institution(s)

© The Author(s) or their Institution(s)

© The Author(s) or their Institution(s)

2.3 The Proposed Model

© The Author(s) or their Institution(s)

2.4.1 Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System model

Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System is a Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) in the

516 = 7 (.) = 1, 2 516 = 7 (-)

© The Author(s) or their Institution(s)

526 = , = 7 (.) × 7 (-) = 1, 2 (11)

The output of each node shows the firing strength of a rule.

In layer 4 each node is adaptive, and the function is as Eq. (13).

546 = , ; = , ( . + < - + ) (13)

Where pi, qi and ri are consequent parameters.

Table 1 ANFIS Model Structure

2.4.2 Multi-Layer Perceptron

© The Author(s) or their Institution(s)

© The Author(s) or their Institution(s)

2.4.3 Radial Basis Function Network

2.4.4 General Regression Neural Network

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Table 3 Comparing the error of forecasted results

{CC :7:7 E=77 = 76F == 1,2,...,5

As indicated in Table 4, considering significance level of S = 0.05, the null hypothesis

Table 4 Comparison of ANFIS, NNs, and EAC formula outputs

Table 5 Improvement of MLP structure

© The Author(s) or their Institution(s)

Table 6 Improvement of RBF structure

Table 7 Improvement of GRNN structure

Table 8 Improvement of GRNN structure

{CC :7:7 E=77 = 6F7 ==1,2,3,4

Table 9 Comparison of ANFIS and NNs methods

5. Taguchi experiment and Sensitivity Analysis

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Table 10 Comparison of ANFIS and NNs methods

6. Conclusion and Further Research

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© The Author(s) or their Institution(s)

© The Author(s) or their Institution(s)

© The Author(s) or their Institution(s)

© The Author(s) or their Institution(s)

Fig. 1 Earned value parameters

© The Author(s) or their Institution(s)

Budget & schedule

Earned Value (EV)

Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy

Is the system No Output of MLP Output of RBF Output of GRNN

Compare types of NN with ANFIS

Fig. 2 The proposed process flowchart for cost estimation

© The Author(s) or their Institution(s)

Fig. 3 ANFIS structure (Iranmanesh et al. 2009, ]

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