Received: 6 July 2023

DOI: 10.1049/hve2.12431

ORIGINAL RESEARCH
- - Revised: 7 December 2023 Accepted: 7 December 2023

- High Voltage

A novel approach towards parametric assessment of reliability

and resilience of high voltage mica‐based insulation systems by
statistical analysis of experimental failure data

Shahram Negari1 | Davoud Esmaeil Moghadam2

1
Integrated Power Services, Cleveland, Ohio, USA Abstract
2
Valeo eAutomotive Germany GmbH, Erlangen, Insulation systems in high‐voltage electric machines play a pivotal role in the reliable
Germany operation and longevity of the equipment. Mica‐based insulation materials have proven to
possess and maintain excellent dielectric properties in the long run and prevent premature
Correspondence
insulation degradation. Numerous qualifications tests, such as voltage endurance, are
Shahram Negari.
Email: S.Negari@ieee.org; outlined in IEC and IEEE standards. The authors, however, take a different parametric
SNegari@ips.us approach, opting for reliability assessment of insulation systems using derived three‐
parameter Weibull models. Therefore, instead of simple pass–fail criteria, empirical
Associate Editor: Ying Yang data is employed to determine failure rate probabilities quantitatively and objectively.
Experimental data, including breakdown, dissipation factor, and partial discharge mea-
surements, are used to construct the Weibull distribution model to predict fault and
failure rates and calculate hazard functions. The rigorous examinations interpreted
through the analytical model help assess insulation system resilience and particularly the
impact of electrical field stress and mica content. Variation of electrical stress from 66.75
to 71.20 V/mil demonstrated how the mean time to failure of the system changed from
146.4 to 85.1 at 3 Un, hence identifying opportunities for design improvement and
uncovering performance boundaries. Ultimately, the developed framework enhances
comprehension of insulation system failure probabilities, guiding design decisions and
ensuring a secure and reliable operation of electrical machines across applications.

1 | INTRODUCTION a report conducted by the Electric Power Research Institute

Unexpected failure of equipment is a major costly concern for
all industries. A study conducted by the Thomas Net in 2005
reported that the cost of downtime in the auto industry is about
$22,000 per minute [1], and more recently, Forbes stated that
manufacturers on average face 800 h of equipment downtime
annually, averaging over 15 h per week. This aggregate down-
time imposes a significant cost which amounts to an estimated
annual expense of up to $50 billion [2]. And this is not all, if the
cost of unreliability and power disruption caused by an up-
stream system, that is, electric grid, is taken into account, the
numbers become even more egregious. The US Department of
Energy, Office of Scientific and Technical Information recounts
(EPRI) that indicates power quality cost estimates amount to
$26 billion per year in the United States [3], excluding the losses
incurred by power outages longer than few seconds. EPRI
estimated that the total cost of power‐interruptions is estimated
to be around $50 billion annually [4]!
Electric machines serve as the prime movers and essential
energy conversion apparatus in the industrial sector, driving
various processes and facilitating the transformation of energy
into desired forms. Therefore, the reliability of motors, gener-
ators, and transformers plays a crucial role in the industrial
sector. These machines are the backbone of many industrial
processes, powering essential operations and ensuring smooth
workflow. Reliable electric machines minimise downtime and

Shahram Negari and Davoud Esmaeil Moghadam contributed equally to this work.

-
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is
properly cited.
© 2024 The Authors. High Voltage published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of The Institution of Engineering and Technology and China Electric Power Research Institute.

High Voltage. 2024;9:495–507. wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/hve2 495

496
- NEGARI and ESMAEIL MOGHADAM
prevent costly disruptions to production schedules. They pro-
vide consistent and efficient performance, contributing to
increased productivity and profitability. Furthermore, reliable
machines reduce the risk of equipment failure, which can lead to
safety hazards and potential damage to other components.
Therefore, ensuring the reliability of electric machines is
vital for maintaining optimal functioning and overall success in
industrial settings and power generation [5]. Therefore,
developing an understanding of fault modes and failure rates of
equipment has an essential role in reliability engineering.
Focusing on the electrical aspects of electric machines, it is
obvious that insulation is the heart of electric reliability as it
ensures the integrity and satisfactory performance of the ma-
chine [6, 7], in particular in mission‐critical and high‐power
density designs [8]. By providing insulation, these materials
help maintain proper electrical insulation resistance, preventing
the risk of electrical breakdowns, malfunctions, and potential
damage to the machine [9]. Additionally, insulation materials
help withstand high temperatures, humidity, and other envi-
ronmental factors, safeguarding the machine against external
stresses. Ultimately, reliable insulation in electric machines is
essential for maintaining their performance, longevity, and
overall reliability, and hence the concept of reliability oriented
design has gained more traction [10, 11].
This research employs empirical data gathered from real
experiments to conduct a comprehensive statistical analysis
based upon Weibull distribution. Probabilistic models are
gaining more popularity in fault detection and failure analysis
in electrical power systems due to advancements in machine
learning and artificial intelligence [12, 13]. Weibull modelling is
a powerful statistical tool for analysing failure patterns and
predicting failure rates over time. In high‐voltage (HV) insu-
lation systems, failure rates can vary based on the system's age;
thermal, electrical, and mechanical stressors; environmental
conditions; and other factors [14–16]. For instance, in line with
the three regions of a bathtub curve, a new insulation system
may experience an initial period of a decreasing failure rate as
early‐life failures are experienced, a steady‐state period of an
approximately constant failure rate, and eventually an end‐of‐
life period of an increasing probability rate of failure. The
three‐parameter Weibull distribution is specifically designed to
accommodate all three stages; hence making it a powerful tool
for reliability analysis and even studying the impact of pro-
duction defects on insulation lifetime [17]. Moreover, the
flexibility of Weibull distribution makes it adept at analysing a
broad range of failure data that HV electric machines experi-
ence, allowing for accurate life expectancy predictions and
maintenance scheduling. Therefore, by tailoring the parameters
to the data and developing a close fit distribution model, en-
gineers can leverage periodical data collected from the ma-
chine, such as insulation resistance, dielectric absorption rate,
polarisation index, dissipation factor and partial discharge
(PD), and surge error area ration, to identify the trend
and predict when insulation systems are more likely to fail and
schedule preventative maintenance to avoid costly and
dangerous system failures.
Our aim is to examine the influence of variations in mica
tape compositions and level of electrical field stress on reli-
ability, distribution parameters, and hazard function. Because
by understanding how these factors impact failure rates and
reliability, design engineers can make informed design de-
cisions and implement calculated cost‐benefit tactics to
enhance the performance and longevity of these machines in
industrial applications. The first section of the paper briefly
presents the concept and application of the Weibull–Bayesian
framework in studying failure and reliability. Then, it is dis-
cussed how and why a three‐parameter model is more suitable
in analysing reliability in insulation systems [18, 19]. Then,
three trial variations of HV insulation systems whose failure
data used for analysis are introduced. This part continues with
explaining the experimental set up and the data. The next
section assesses and analyses faults and failure rates of sample
systems and probes into the importance of deriving hazard
functions and reliability measures. This paper finally concludes
by summarising the findings.
This research proposes a novel approach towards the
design of HV mica‐based insulation systems, and the key
differentiating factors of the suggested framework can be
summarised as follows:
i. Most standards define pass/fail criteria for testing insu-
lation materials. For example, the success of a voltage
endurance test is defined by not experiencing any break-
down by the end of the test [20, 21]. However, the quan-
titative method that is outlined in this paper delivers a
robust statistical method to calculate the probability of
failure rates throughout the lifespan of the HV insulation
system. In other words, this method covers the grey areas
where the status of the machine is not known.
ii. The three‐parameter Weibull when combined with
Bayesian allows for the consideration of a priori knowledge
available for a specific insulation system [22]. The knowl-
edge that is collected through years of experience signifi-
cantly enriches the accuracy and reasoning of probabilistic
models [23, 24].
iii. Real‐world experimental results have been employed to
demonstrate the efficacy and usefulness of the framework
in interpreting failure rate probability and hazard functions
of three trial insulation systems based on eight control
variables and two random variables that are primary factors
in the design of vacuum‐pressure impregnated insulation
systems: electrical stress and mica content [25].
iv. The model allows design engineers to make informed
trade‐off decisions regarding life expectancy, hazard func-
tion and cost of HV insulation systems that fit the
application.
To summarise, this research seeks to provide valuable in-
sights into the relationship between insulation system charac-
teristics and the overall reliability of electric machines by
estimating the shape, scale, and offset parameters of Weibull
distribution; thus helping design engineers to select the right
NEGARI and ESMAEIL MOGHADAM
- 497

system based on reliability requirements and expected life of we increased the sample sizes to 30 for non‐destructive tests
the machine. (NDT) so the data can inform future Weibull–Bayesian
models. Due to its flexibility and ability to estimate parame-
ters from failure data, the two‐parameter Weibull distribution
2 | WEIBULL MODEL AND FAILURE that yields the probability density function, f(t), is most prev-
ANALYSIS alent for life data analysis [29]:

tðβ−1Þ
� �β
t
Weibull distribution has been long used to model uncertainty in f ðtÞ ¼ β ⋅e η
ð5Þ
material and equipment failure. The fundamental idea is based ηβ
on the weakest link principle [26] and application of extreme
However, in the series of experiments conducted, the
value theory to a very large number of samples [27] which
probability of failure of designed insulation systems at time
indicates the following:
t = 0 is practically zero. Therefore, a three‐parameter Weibull
�
t−τ
�β distribution will be more appropriate to produce the CDF
−
PðT ≤ tÞ ≈ 1 − e η
ð1Þ model:
� �
t−t0 β
where P represents the probability of some extreme events FðtÞ ¼ 1 − e
− η
ð6Þ
happening at time T prior to a threshold time t. Ƭ, ɳ, and β are
the shift (location), scale, and shape parameters of the distri- Equation (6) follows IEC 61649 notation: t is the
bution, respectively. Under weak conditions, Equation (2) can elapsed time and t0 is the offset or failure‐free time. From
be approximated to an equality which provides the time to the empirical failure rate data of three insulation systems,
failure function: this model predicts specific time point failures or overall
lifespan failures. For accurate Weibull parameter estimation
� �β
− t−τ from experimental data, maximum likelihood estimation
FðtÞ ¼ PðT ≤ tÞ ¼ 1 − e η
ð2Þ (MLE), a reliable and well‐known method based on obser-
vations [30] is utilised. In terms of probability, considering a
where F(t) represents the cumulative distribution function function f (x|θ) that describes a density function of random
(CDF) for a failure event. Since in Weibull analysis it is variables x with θ being the true state of the system, MLE
assumed that failures are statistically independent, then the yields
probability of failure can be calculated as a product of indi-
� �
vidual failure probabilities. Therefore,
^θ ðxÞ ¼ arg maxLðθjxÞ ð7Þ
θ
Pðminðt1 ; t2 ; …; tn Þ > tÞ ¼ Pðt1 > tÞ � Pðt2 > tÞ � …
� Pðtn > tÞ where ^θ is the value of the parameter that maximises the
� P n � � �
β
probability of the observed data for the function f (x|θ). As the
� � t
n t
β − ð3Þ sample size grows, MLE yields increasingly more accurate and
− ηi
¼∏e ηi
¼e i¼1

i¼1
consistent results. MLE's invariance property is vital in deriving
� �β
t
other functions of the estimated parameters.
−
¼e η
If a distribution is parametrised by θ and there is a need to
estimate other functions of θ, the new estimator would be a
Thus, the minimum time to failure will be the minimum transformation of the original parameter. Therefore, MLE can
value of t1 to tn over a Weibull distribution with distinct shape determine the most probable Weibull distribution parameters.
and scaling parameters. Thus,
� �−β1 n
Tmin ¼ minðt1 ; t2 ; …tn Þ� Weibull ðη; βÞ j η ¼ Σni¼1 η−β
i Lðη; β; t0 jx1 ; …; xn Þ ¼ ∏ f ðxi ; η; β; t0Þ ð8Þ
i¼1
ð4Þ
However, in practice, the above equation is usually con-
The Weibull distribution's shape is defined by two or three verted to the log‐likelihood function, which is the natural
parameters. If the probability of failure before a time Ƭ is logarithm of the likelihood function. The log‐likelihood func-
negligible, a threshold parameter Ƭ is added to the CDF. ɳ, a tion simplifies the mathematical calculations because it trans-
positive number, is the scale parameter or characteristic life. β, forms the product of probabilities to the algebraic sum of
also a positive number and usually ≥1, is the shape parameter. logarithms:
The mathematical model used for predicting failure rates with
this distribution is based on IEC 61649, which suggests the n
X
Weibull–Bayesian model for experiments with samples ≤20 L ðη; β; t0 jx1 ; …; xn Þ ¼ lnðf ðη; β; t0 jx1 ; …; xn ÞÞ ð9Þ
[28]. However, the systems studied lacked a priori data. Thus, i¼1
498
- NEGARI and ESMAEIL MOGHADAM

Which for the three‐parameter Weibull distribution can be 3 | RELIABILITY AND HAZARD
simplified to FUNCTION

Lðη; β; t0 jx1 ; …; xn Þ ¼ n � lnðβÞ − n � β � lnðηÞ
n n � � density and cumulative distribution functions. In reliability
X X xi − t0 β
þ ðβ − 1Þ � lnðxi − t0 Þ − ð10Þ
i¼1 i¼1
η as the failure rate function [31, 32] is derived from
There is no simple closed‐form solution for the given
equation, so numerical methods are typically needed. Com-
mercial software uses iterative methods to find the values for
shape, scale, and offset that maximise the log‐likelihood
function. Nonetheless, it is essential to have sensible initial
estimates for accurate results. The algorithm to derive distri-
bution parameters from experimental data is depicted in
Figure 1. In summary, using MLE with the Weibull distribu-
tion, parameters were estimated for three insulation systems,
allowing reliable predictions and assessments of reliability for
HV insulation systems.
Weibull distribution, as discussed earlier, is used to calculate
engineering, the well‐recognised hazard function, also termed
Equation (5):
� � � �β−1
f ðtÞ β t
λ ðtÞ ¼ ¼ ⋅ ð11Þ
1 − FðtÞ η η
The famous bathtub shape is in fact the visual interpreta-
tion of the hazard function based on various beta values. For
example, when β > 1, obviously the term λ(t) increases over
time which translates to higher failure due to ageing and
wearing, whereas β < 1 means that the failure rate declines
over time. Interestingly enough, when β = 1, the entire hazard
function turns into a generalised exponential distribution [33]
and can be formulised as follows [34]:

f ðtÞ dt
λðtÞdt ¼ ð12Þ
1 − FðtÞ
where
Rt
− λðtÞdt
f ðtÞ ¼ λðtÞe 0 ð13Þ

Rt
− λðtÞdt
FðtÞ ¼ 1 − e 0 ð14Þ

The memoryless property [35] indicates that the failure rate

is time‐independent, unaffected by ageing and wear, but by
external factors. This model suits the analysis of electronic
components' reliability, which often fails due to external factors
such as transient voltage spikes or overloads [34]. However,
insulation systems are not memoryless as most mathematical
models consider ageing a key mechanism in insulation failure.
Some traditional models, such as the Arrhenius thermal ageing
model [36], have merely focused on the impact of a single
stressor on ageing. However, newer studies have proposed
more sophisticated multi‐stressor models: Ramu's [37], Simo-
ni's [38], Montanari's probabilistic model [39], and Dissado
et al. Dissado's thermodynamic model dives deeper and out-
lines how temperature increases the electrons energy which
allows them to jump the barrier, whereas electrical stress re-
duces the height of the barrier [40, 41].

Z ( " !#)−1
nc
kB T
� � � �
−Ur ðEÞ −Ub ðEÞ
ðN−nÞ ðnÞ
t¼ e kB T
−e kT
dn ð15Þ
N h

where t is time to failure, Ur(E) and Ub(E) are activation energies

for bond formation and breakage. N is the total breakable bonds,
n represents bonds already broken, nc is the critical broken bond
count leading to failure, and finally h and kB are Planck's and
Boltzmann's constants [42]. HV machine design and industry
FIGURE 1 Algorithm for deriving Weibull distribution parameters. data provide enough evidence to consider failure at time zero as
NEGARI and ESMAEIL MOGHADAM
not a typical event, suggesting that the Weibull model should
have an offset value. Thus, (a) insulation system requires a three‐
parameter Weibull analysis, and (b) the shape factor β is typically
greater than one. Design factors dictate the hazard function λ(t)
behaviour, impacting system reliability over time. The hazard
function informs the choice of insulation materials based on
applications, such as IEEE 323 [43] describes the qualification
process of electrical equipment designed for the harsh envi-
ronment of nuclear power plants [43]. Environmentally qualified
HV motors, especially safety‐related class, call for rigorous
design parameters. A larger value of β, shape factor, enhances
hazard function accuracy for insulation systems, reducing pre-
mature failure risk. The following section examines three insu-
lation systems and their test results.
4 | EXPERIMENTAL RESULTS
4.1 | Trial HV insulation system designs
Mica‐based insulation systems play a crucial role in ensuring
the reliability of HV motors and generators by providing
electrical insulation and favourable thermal characteristics.
These systems typically consist of mica papers impregnated
with a binding resin and applied to a mechanical substrate such
as PET film, polyester felt, or glass cloth. The composition of
mica, binding resin, and substrate material can significantly
influence the performance and reliability of the insulation.
Variations in these components can impact the failure rate and
shape of the Weibull curve, which is commonly used to analyse
the failure characteristics fault mode of insulating materials.
For example, most mica tapes used in the HV industry are
produced from mica minerals, mainly muscovite or phlogopite,
which have distinct crystal structures and chemical composi-
tions, leading to variations in their dielectric strength, break-
down voltage (BD), and ageing characteristics. Both the binder
and the impregnating resin used to impregnate mica tapes
under vacuum and pressure (vacuum pressure impregnation
TABLE 1 Insulation materials used in the trails.
Trail systems
Specifies Insulation system design A
Control variables i. Strand insulation: Enamelled MW 0.03 mm single build þ one turn half‐lapped mica tape 0.065 mm
ii. Total strand insulation thickness: 0.160 mm
iii. Catalysed, class F uncalcined muscovite with film backing
iv. Tape thickness: 0.135 � 0.05 mm
v. Ground wall insulation four half‐lapped layers
vi. Outer corona protection: 0.08 mm tape impregnated with electrically conductive varnish, half‐lapped
vii. Stress grading: 0.24 mm tape impregnated with silicon carbide resin, half‐lapped
viii. Impregnating resin: Epoxy with a glass transition temperature of 140°C
Random variables a) Mica 170 g/m2 þ film 42 g/m2
b) Design electrical stress: 66.75 V/mil
≈2.6 kV/mm
Abbreviation: MW, Magnet Wire.
- 499
[VPI]) play vital roles in enhancing the mechanical strength and
electrical properties of the insulation system, as different types
of resins, such as epoxy, silicone, or polyester, exhibit diverse
and dissimilar behaviours. It is shown that resin has a sub-
stantial impact on the PD activity and lifetime of the insulation
system [44], hence epoxy resin was used in three sample sys-
tems. Furthermore, the substrate, onto which the mica‐based
insulation system is applied, also contributes to its overall
reliability. The choice of the substrate material also impacts
failure modes and failure rates. For instance, different backing
materials entail different dissipation factors and play a crucial
role in ensuring good resin penetration while minimising the
risk of delamination or cracking due to thermal cycling.
In summary, in mica‐based HV insulation systems, the
combination of mica, resin, and substrate crucially affects the
failure rates and the Weibull curve shape. Recognising these
component impacts enables engineers to design long‐lasting
HV systems optimally and understands how minor changes
affect system's reliability and hazard function.
The three trail systems designed for this study are based on
commercially available tapes and resins, commonly used in the
industry, as this research is industry‐inspired and practical
rather than abstractly theoretical. The specifics and details of
the three trail designs, used for collecting experimental test
values, are indicated in Table 1.
4.2 | Experimental setup and results
Samples, encompassing coils and formettes, from the three
systems were subjected to rigorous testing. NDTs were per-
formed on 30 specimens per design, while destructive tests
were performed on 10 samples from each design, resulting in
a total of 120 data points. Tests were carried out according to
IEC standards, measured PD magnitudes and levels, the
dissipation factor (tanδ), and BD values, both pre and post
the ageing process. BD measurements, conducted across
diverse voltage levels, illustrated the dielectric strength of the
Insulation system design B Insulation system design C
a) Mica 160 g/m2 þ film 42 g/m2 a) Mica 155 g/m2 þ film 42 g/m2
b) Design electrical stress: 71.20 V/mil b) Design Electrical stress: 67.2 V/mil
≈2.8 kV/mm ≈2.65 kV/mm
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- NEGARI and ESMAEIL MOGHADAM
insulation system post accelerated ageing. The time to failure
until breakdown for each sample is graphed in the following
plot.
4.3 | Thermal ageing
The 6.6 kV sample coils and formettes, representative of
each insulation system specification, were subjected to a
thermal ageing examination. This procedure was executed in
compliance with IEEE 275 and IEC 60034‐18‐31 standards,
and MPD600 was used to measure the PD. Also, a
sequence of non‐destructive insulation characteristic tests
was performed at various stages of the thermal ageing
progression.
Dielectric dissipation factor (tanδ) and maximum PD
amplitude (Qmax) were evaluated, alongside the measurement
of residual BD. The thermal ageing was carried out at 230oC
over 250 and 500 h, and at 210oC for 500, 1000 and 1500 h,
respectively.
In line with the guidelines set by IEC 60034‐27‐1, IEC
60270 and IEEE 1434, the PD activity of the specimens was
evaluated after each heat cycling process. Concurrently, the
dissipation factor was assessed in accordance with IEC 60034‐
27‐3 and IEEE 286. Subsequent to these assessments, insu-
lation BD tests were conducted following the IEC 60243 and
IEEE standards.
Figure 2 exhibits the variations in the tanδ value of the
specimens after undergoing diverse durations of thermal
ageing at a temperature of 210°C. It was observed that the
dissipation factor values of system A experienced a substantial
increase post 500 h of thermal ageing, whereas designs B and C
retained stability. Notably, design C consistently demonstrated
lower values. It is worth mentioning that the behaviour of the
dissipation factor values remained consistent for the systems
aged under 230°C.
The PD amplitude (Qmax) of each system, prior to and
following thermal ageing, was quantified at three distinct
voltage levels (Un/√3, 1.25 Un/√3, Un), Un being the
nominal voltage, as shown in Figure 3. System C consistently
exhibited a substantially lower PD amplitude, both pre‐ageing
and subsequent to each ageing duration. Conversely, the
FIGURE 2 Dissipation factor—ageing time @210°C.
corresponding values for design A exhibited an increase post
each phase of the ageing process.
Moreover, system B demonstrated marginally elevated
values in comparison to design C, which could be attributed to
its reduced thickness. In general, the escalation in PD ampli-
tude post 500 h of thermal ageing and the subsequent reduc-
tion in values post 1500 h may be correlated to the post‐curing
process of the resin. For design A, the observed behaviour is
indicative of a delamination process brought about by thermal
ageing, hence the increment in values with each level. It is
noteworthy that the thermal ageing process at 230°C reflected
identical behaviour across all systems.
Upon the completion of each phase of the thermal ageing
process, the specimens successfully underwent BD testing as
illustrated in Figure 4a. Initial BD test (BDV) values across the
samples, prior to the ageing process, indicated comparable
behaviours and measurements.
However, upon analysis of the results, it was found that
post thermal ageing, the BDV values for systems B and C
remained relatively consistent across each phase for the
respective systems (Figures 4c,d). In contrast, System A dis-
played an alteration in the value range after each level of the
process, a phenomenon that could potentially be attributed to
the delamination brought about by thermal ageing (Figure 4b).
This particular behaviour was also mirrored in the measured
values for the dissipation factor and PD amplitudes pertaining
to design A.
Additionally, system C recorded marginally elevated values
in comparison to design B, despite demonstrating lower reli-
ability against system B. It should also be noted that despite
possessing a thinner insulation layer, system B maintained
values almost parallel to design C and in fact displayed
enhanced reliability.
4.4 | Heat endurance cycle test
Each system was subjected to a Heat Endurance Cycle eval-
uation test, executed in adherence to the standards set by IEC
60034‐18‐34 and IEEE 1310. The apparatus for the heat cycle
F I G U R E 3 PD amplitude—applied voltage, system without ageing
and aged @210°C.
NEGARI and ESMAEIL MOGHADAM
- 501

test comprised an electrical transformer, a cooling fan, and a

temperature control panel.
The procedure involved conducting a heat endurance cycle
test utilising a test coil and a temperature control coil. The
regulation of the temperature was achieved by affixing a
thermocouple to the coil. The conditions specified for the
heat‐resistance cycle were as follows:

� The heat‐endurance cycle entailed the repetition of 40°C

and 155°C temperatures.
� Standard one‐cycle conditions encompassed heating for a
duration ranging from 30 to 60 min, followed by a cooling
period of the same duration (Figure 5).
� The heating phase was initiated by applying an electrical
current to the coil wire conductor.
� The cooling phase was facilitated by a fan installed exter-
nally to the coil.

Following the well‐known guidelines established in the IEC

60034‐18‐34 standard, the temperature increases and decrease
intervals were integral components of the heat‐endurance cycle
test conditions. Throughout the course of the heat‐endurance
cycle test, insulation diagnostic assessments were performed at
defined intervals, specifically post the initial, 10th, 50th, 100th,
250th and 500th cycles. The diagnostic tests conducted
included the tanδ test and PD test.
Upon examination of the PD amplitude variation at three
voltage levels (Un/√3, 1.25 Un/√3, Un) post each thermal
cycle, it was observed that trails A and C demonstrated less
variation with increasing voltage and thermal cycles, in contrast
to system B, which displayed a more significant variation
(Figure 6). This discrepancy could potentially be attributed to
System B's thinner insulation system.
However, the dissipation factor values displayed stability
throughout the thermal cycling process. The observed varia-
tions in the early stages of heat cycling could be associated with
the post‐curing process of the systems (Figure 7).
Given the insights obtained from the PD activity and
dissipation factor values, it can be conjectured that the BDV
values of the systems post 500 cycles may be predictable

F I G U R E 4 Probability of breakdown voltage of the system under

various thermal ageing conditions. (a) Breakdown probability of the systems
prior ageing, (b) breakdown probability of the system A aged @ 210°C,
(c) breakdown probability of the system B aged @ 210°C, and F I G U R E 5 Heat endurance cycle test temperature change (within IEC
(d) breakdown probability of the system C aged @ 210°C. 60034‐18 standard conditions) measured from samples.
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- NEGARI and ESMAEIL MOGHADAM
FIGURE 6 PD amplitude of the systems measured after heat endurance cycles. (a) Design A. (b) Design B. (c) Design C. PD, partial discharge.
(Figure 8). The results indicated a superior performance by
system C in comparison to the other systems. Additionally, the
impact of PD amplitude variation during the thermal cycling
process was distinctly reflected in the BDV probability graph,
and the corresponding values for design B demonstrated lower
reliability.
4.5 | Electrical lifetime test
The voltage endurance testing (VET) on each system was
conducted in accordance with IEC 60034‐18‐32 and IEEE
1553 (Figure 9). Pursuant to the IEC's guidelines, the over-
voltage was configured to three distinct voltage levels as follows:
� 4E (26.4 kV): Room temperature—in oil.
� 3E (19.8 kV): Room temperature—oil.
� 2.17E (14.3 kV): Room temperature—air.
Figure 10 illustrates the Weibull distribution of the voltage–
time to failure (V–T ) test outcomes, estimated at the cumu-
lative breakdown rates of 63.2% and 1.0%. The retention time
at the cumulative breakdown rate of 63.2% is evaluated as the
mean of the results obtained for each coil. Concurrently, the
retention time at the cumulative breakdown rates of 63.2% and
1.0% is assessed at the juncture where insulation breakdown
commences in each coil, marking the initiation of its lifespan.
When the projected lifespan is assessed using the mean value,
no significant distinction is observed between the systems.
However, a rigorous evaluation reveals a deviation in the sample
coil of design B, thus suggesting a potentially shortened lifespan.
The voltage–temperature (V–T ) assessment was conduct-
ed in compliance with the IEC 60034‐18‐32 standard, with the
criterion, as delineated in Table 1 of IEEE 1553 and KEMA
requirements (Table 2), being a duration exceeding required
hours at desired voltage levels. This result substantiates
commendable voltage endurance life characteristics across all
systems, significantly surpassing the established evaluative
standard.
The VET outcomes, presented in terms of electric field
strength (E(kV/mm)), have been illustrated independently for
each system considering IEEE 1553 and KEMA requirements
(Figure 11).
FIGURE 7 tanδ of the systems measured after heat endurance cycles.
The VET graph, represented in terms of electric field
strength (E(kV/mm)), to counter the disparities in insulation
thickness, depicts that systems B and C exhibit nearly identical
lifetime behaviours under conditions of elevated voltage
(Figure 12). However, at diminished voltage levels, design B
shows superior lifetime characteristics. When factoring in the
imposed voltage, trial design A continues to demonstrate an
extended lifespan at higher voltages, potentially attributable to
its enhanced insulation thickness. Conversely, under lower
voltage conditions, the lifespan of system A remains the least
extended amongst the systems with design B outperforming
with a more prolonged lifespan.
Therefore, studying the results examined above, it becomes
clear that the correlation between the mica content and the
lifetime/durability of a predefined slot dimension is not a
straightforward relationship. This study compares three trial
insulation systems of different designs, referred to as design
system A, design system B, and design system C. System A and
C were designed for very similar electrical stress values of
(67 � 5) V/mil, while the other random variable, mica content,
varied between 170 and 155 g/m2, respectively, to scrutinise its
impact on shape and scale parameters. Despite the similar
design basis, it was observed that the resin penetration in
design A was limited, indicating inadequate impregnation
during the VPI process. This limitation led to rapid delami-
nation during thermal ageing, as evidenced by the changes in
NEGARI and ESMAEIL MOGHADAM
F I G U R E 8 Breakdown voltage (BDV) of the systems measured after
heat endurance cycles. Comparison of BDV (kV) (a) prior to aging, (b) after
thermal aging.
tanδ, PD, and BD values obtained from thermal ageing
evaluations.
On the other hand, trial design B has a mica content
between the other two systems (160 g/m2) but higher elec-
trical stress design basis and larger clearance between the slot
and the coil straight portion. This configuration provided
more space within the slot for resin impregnation, resulting in
the formation of tiny air bubbles, as confirmed by cross‐
sectional analyses and the occurrence of PD during various
evaluations.
To optimise the insulation properties of system A, it would
be necessary to increase the clearance between the coil arms
and the slot to facilitate impregnation. This, in turn, could
either decrease the power output of the motor within the same
motor size or require an increase in the motor's dimensions for
the same output power. Conversely, reducing the clearance
between coil arms and slot would be an appropriate approach
for improving the performance of design B. This reduction not
only lowers the material costs but also reduces the overall
motor costs by shrinking the motor size while maintaining the
same output power.
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FIGURE 9 Schematic circuit diagram for voltage endurance testing.
Considering the results and the impact of slot dimensions,
system C emerges as the most reliable and durable option with
favourable properties. However, as discussed, the performance
and durability of the insulation system not only depend on the
composition of the system materials but also on external fac-
tors and even geometry of the machine's slot size and pa-
rameters of the VPI cycle.
5 | ANALYSIS OF FAULTS AND
FAILURE RATES
Since the breakdown is considered a definite failure of the
insulation system, BDV data collected from the experimental
results are used for the analysis. Yet, it is sought to leverage the
complementary information collected from other tests to gain
more insight on the interpretation of BDV values. Specifically,
the focus has been on examining the values of scale parameter
ɳ as it represents the spread or dispersion of the distribution,
which also illustrates the time at which a certain proportion of
the population, that is, insulation system, is expected to fail. A
high‐scale parameter corresponds to a wider spread and
consequently a large range that random BDV values can take.
In fact, considering the BDV value as the random variable, it
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- NEGARI and ESMAEIL MOGHADAM

TABLE 2 Required durability at certain voltage levels based on IEEE

and KEMA.

Standard Min. durability Voltage

IEEE 1553 250 2.5 Un
400 2.17 Un

KEMA 10 3 Un
1000 2 Un

F I G U R E 1 1 Durability of the system based on the electrical field

strength. (a) Design B, (b) Design A, and (c) Design C.
F I G U R E 1 0 Weibull distribution of the voltage–time to failure (V–T )
(a) at 2.17 Un (b) at 3 Un, and (c) at 4 Un.
�� � �� � � ���
2 2 2 2 1
2
can be shown that the variance of the distribution σ is directly σ ¼η Γ 1þ − Γ 1þ ð16Þ
k k
proportional to the square of the scale parameter ɳ2. k is the
shape parameter that impact the skewness and kurtosis of the The Gamma function values here are used to calculate
distribution. Because moments of the distribution. Specifically, Γ(1 þ 2/k) is related
NEGARI and ESMAEIL MOGHADAM
F I G U R E 1 2 Comparison lifespan of the systems based on the field
strength and applied voltage. (a) Reduced field strength, (b) higher field
strength.
to the second moment, and Γ(1 þ 1/k) is pertinent to the first
moment squared. Thus, the variance is then the difference
between these two moments, scaled by the square of the scale
parameter η. Intuitively, a larger scale parameter implies longer
survival times, because hazard function f(t) is inversely related
to ɳ. However, the insulation material with the highest scale
parameter at certain voltage exhibits the highest life variance,
hence lowest reliability, ceteris paribus. It may seem paradox-
ical, but an insulation system with a high value of the scale
parameter may entail a longer life, but the probability of failure
is more spread across the entire life span.
The following chart compares the values of scale param-
eters for the BDV values of the three trial insulation systems
before and after ageing at 210oC and 230oC (Figure 13). The
missing values for either case are calculated using simple
arithmetic inter/extrapolation.
All three trail systems demonstrate a sharp reduction in the
values of their respective Weibull scale parameters and shape
parameters and then ramping up as the ageing process con-
tinues. Referring to Equations (6), (11), and (14), it is obvious
- 505
FIGURE 13 Change of scale parameters due to ageing.
that a drop in the shape parameter significantly impacts both
the reliability and hazard functions because β primarily governs
the shape of the reliability function. When the shape parameter
decreases, the reliability function tends to become more
stretched out or flatter by having a longer tail, which means
that the system tends to have a higher probability of survival
over an extended period. Mathematically speaking, the effect of
having a lower shape parameter for a HV insulation is more
prominent for longer time horizons, as the reliability function
approaches an asymptote. Furthermore, when the shape
parameter decreases, the hazard function becomes more flat or
less steep, which is equivalent to becoming less sensitive to
changes in time, resulting in a more stable failure rate pattern.
The chart also depicts a significant plummeting of scaling
parameters in the beginning of the ageing process. This shift
also has significant implications for the interpretation of the
reliability and hazard functions because a reduction in the ɳ
indicates a compression of the distribution along the time axis,
and consequently, the reliability function tends to decline more
rapidly over time. Contrary to the impact of the shape
parameter, the effect of a decreasing scaling factor is more
pronounced in shorter time horizons, as the reliability function
exhibits a steeper initial decline. This in turn means that the
hazard function increases more rapidly or becomes more
sensitive to changes in time, indicating a higher probability of
failure.
Although, there is some anecdotal evidence suggesting that
characteristics of insulation systems initially start to improve
after installation due to the continuation of curing and baking
of the mica‐based insulation materials, it is important to un-
derstand that once the HV machine is in service, the perfor-
mance of the insulation system is primarily influenced by
various external factors such as load, humidity and moisture,
temperature rise, mechanical stress, and contamination.
Furthermore, the choice of mica tape properties, selection of
the resin, and other components of the insulation system
should align with the specific requirements, machine con-
straints, and type of applications. For instance, although all
three experimental systems show similar behaviours with
respect to aging, the above figure clearly illustrates that system
A which has the highest mica content demonstrates the least
variability in the values of ɳ over time.
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- NEGARI and ESMAEIL MOGHADAM
6 | CONCLUSION
In conclusion, this research demonstrates the significant
impact of design factors such as electrical stress and mica tape
variations on the failure rate and shape of the Weibull curve.
The test results specifically provide empirical evidence on how
the designed electrical field stress affects the distribution pa-
rameters, survival/hazard functions, and mean time to failure
(MTTF) values. For example, at accelerated ageing with test
voltage equal to 3Un = 19.8 kV, design A and design C with
electrical stresses of 66.75 and 67.2 V/mil yielded MTTF
values of 146.4 and 140.3, respectively, whilst the MTTF for
system B with a design electrical stress of 71.2 V/mil sharply
dropped to 85.1. Considering the significance of electrical
stress, it is not surprising that the maximum volt/mil for both
PowerSeal® and MegaSeal® systems is kept at around 65 V/
mil. The following list summarises the findings:
a. Variation of design factors significantly impacts failure rates
and parameters of the Weibull curve.
b. Modifications to material compositions could result in less
variability in the shape and scale of the Weibull curve, but
trade‐off exists between performance, expected lifespan, and
costs.
c. Higher shape parameters offer higher reliability but in-
crease susceptibility to initial failures and steeper ageing at
the end of the machine's life.
d. Lower values of the shape parameter lead to slower aging
and gradual failure rate; however, it entails lower overall
reliability.
e. Electrical field stress heavily affects distribution parameters,
MTTF values, and also survival/hazard functions. Thus,
design engineers must consider application requirements.
f. Failure analysis techniques based on Weibull–Bayesian
methods improve the fault detection and lifespan analysis
of HV mica‐based insulation systems for large electric
machines.
By examining failure data and employing the Weibull dis-
tribution combined with Bayesian techniques to account for a
priori knowledge, engineers can better predict the failure rate
and expected lifespan, enabling proactive maintenance and
replacement strategies. Therefore, future research can focus on
collecting and incorporating a priori data from various sources.
C O NF LI CT O F I NT E R E ST STAT E M EN T
The authors declare no potential conflict of interest.
DATA AVAIL A B I LI T Y S TA T EM EN T
Data could be available upon request.
O R C ID
Shahram Negari https://orcid.org/0009-0001-2773-2346
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How to cite this article: Negari, S., Esmaeil
Moghadam, D.: A novel approach towards parametric
assessment of reliability and resilience of high voltage
mica‐based insulation systems by statistical analysis of
experimental failure data. High Voltage. 9(2), 495–507
(2024). https://doi.org/10.1049/hve2.12431