CHAPTER

2 Changing Foreign
PolicyDynamics

READER'S GUIDE
To have a clear and long-term
vision of a country'sforeignpolicy,
itis inevitable
to
framework.Theory is a prerequisite
understanditstheoretical forestablishing
universal
for generalization,
principles simplfication
and understandingoffactsto reach nearer
to reality.
Besides,it servesas aguideforunderstandingthe presentstateofafairs,
as

as,prepareforthe future.
well tocomprehend
To understandthis,it becomes inevitable

the diverseinterpretations
of the post-Cold War world order.Asa folow-up,implications
ofsuch worldorder,
both in theory and practices,are evaluatedto establishlinkages
between global power structureviz-a-vizspace for This has been
Indianforeign policy.
done to discernthechangingfocetsoflndia's
policyatbilateral, and global lev.
regional
els.Further,
challengesand problemareas for India
areevaluatedto envisage the future
roleit is goingto play in Thus,a
the contemporary global milieu. framework for
holistic

þolicymakershas been presented to predict

India's itspresent
statusand space the
in

worldorder.
Inaddition,
a clue foritsfuture
direction
has also been givenin the chapter.

factorsof
lheforeignpolicyofa countryis determinedby both domestic and external
milieu
international
Consequently,
thatstate. one ofthe
represents majorcomponents in
foreignpolicy.Thisbecomes all themore important when
the making ofany country's
environment undergoessignificanttransformations. The end oftheCold
the external
War and simultaneous are indicative
growthof globalisation ofsuch a change, as they
and economic structuresand
have changed the political processes oftheworldina sub
theworldis no more bipolaras it used to be duringthe Cold
stantialmanner.Politically,

War,rathera peculiar havingan edge towardsunipolarity

situation and hegemonism is
 22 Chapter 2

beingwitnessed.Even the nuclearclubofP-5 has been extendedto P-8 (thoughnot rec

ognised) withthe additionofIndia,Pakistanand NorthKorea.New permutationsand
combinationsare beingframed in the form ofregional groupings.The existing global
internationalorganization, the UN isbeingmarginalised
i.e., tothe extentoffacing a cri
sisofitsrelevance. Thirdworldismhas alsobecome insignificant withthe reduced status
ofthe forums likeNAM. Consequently,these developments have influencedthe study
offoreign policiesofstatesina significantway and Indiasforeignpolicy is no exception

to this phenomenon. Hence, itbecomes pertinent to know how India's foreignpolicy

has been able to adjust withthe new internationalmilieu.Tounderstandthese chang
ing dynamics,Indiasforeign policy can be understood by analyzing itsforeign affairs
throughfollowing heads.

THEORIZING WORLD ORDER

Not goingintothe typologies ofworldorderin thepost-Cold war era,itiscertainthat
the international milieuhas undergonehuge transformations both in itsstructural, as

as, in itsoperationaldynamics. Itisalso truethat thoughnearlytwo decades have

well
passed, the worldis still surrounded by ambiguityand instability.Hence, scholars have
interpreted thischanged global order in differentways. Due totheamorphous nature
ofcomplex changes, a theorization is notonlyvery difficult
ofthis transition but also
intractable.2 Itisbeingrealised thatinthe new context,politically
segmenting the globe
into"threeworlds"is obsolete and economicallythe division ofthe world into"two
worlds (ie, Northand South) is also no longerpossible to sustain.Even earlier char
acterisation in the form of"Centre-periphery" will
also notbe applicable in the pres
ent context. Rather intheprocessofanalysingglobalisation of the worldin terms of
"post-coloniality" and "post-socialism"will be more appropriate. But here also due to
lackofconvergenceofinterests between them,the two are notlikelytobe able tooppose
theonslaught ofglobalisation. Thus,understanding the international system intheage
ofglobalisation is fullof uncertainties.

Inanothercontext,when international are beingevaluatedinthe post-glo

relations
balisation era,itis foundthat conceptuallyitis a periodofmarked transition to chal
lengethe hegemony ofstatistnotionofthe national interest.New agenda recastin the
eraincludesissues likeglobal
political
economy, theenvironment, socialmovements,
non-governmental (
organisations NGOs),civil
s global
ociety, transnation
governance,
alisedforms ofviolence, etc.5 Consequently, thatwouldrecast
two simultaneousgestures,
the disciplinaryparametersofinternational relations Inthiscontext,on the
are required.
globali
one hand,itis necessary tothink beyond the motifsofthe post-ColdWar era and
sation.On the other,itis necessary to re-think
the morphology, governanceand violence
and inter-connected nature
ofglobal orderin a way that acknowledges the transnational
 23
Changing Foreign PolicyDynamics

thatthe
era. Despiteallthis,MatinCoward thinks
orcesthatshape the contemporary he concludes
much change. Therefore,
Isicassumption ofstatismhas notundergone theconfinesofstatism represents
of the discipline beyond
trobserving that "recasting Relationsand, hence,deservesto
retain
arevivification ofthe tradition ofInternational
Here,he seems
to a certain setofcommon problematics"
is term as a signal offidelity that "like itor no... real
complete agreement withJ. Rosenberg who remarked
need to make sense ofinter
wbe in
foundations.. which we...
S18... setting on theintellectual
ofrealism,the onlyhyperpower is
tional relations" Thus, in thecontemporary world in terms
the worldisto face the brunt
ofrealpolitik
oingto remain one pole and rest of
ofeconomic, political and military nature.
othegemony and dominance
thepost-Cold war worldhas been definedas--major,
- Inanother interpretation, the sole super
the US "the status of
iddleand minor powers.This orderhas given isnot only auton
international system"?"0This superpower
POwer in a semi-unipolar but also acquires pre-dominant
and military affairs
nous in itseconomic, political power-projection capabilities. It
mostly based on
pòsition, system or global-influence of states in the
or a 'system' which determines the working
isconsideredas 'subject' and do nothave any
Minor-powersare 'objects' or are 'system-ineffectual'
lobalorder. the sharpnessof
foreign policies or securityconcerns.To alternate
mtonomy intheir cat
"one can positin-between
thedistinction between majorpower and minorpowers,
states)inrespect of states
of power(or system-influencing
egory of independentcenters system as a whole,
to influence the course ofinternational
thatdo nothave theleverage policy
to have a considerable degree offoreign
but which possess enough capabilities especially
toresist the application ofunwelcome decisions,
autonomy and the capacity toNayar,Indiafallsin this
in their own region"" According
in the realm of security,
powers and isaspiring toacquire thestatus
greatregional
category ofmiddle-powersor forsuch status, yet the
to have the credentials
ofa major power.Though Indiaseems
powers are reticent to supportitscase.
in favourofa unipolar worldas he linkedthe phenom
Fukuyama argued the case
War to the "endofhistory" and "triumphofdemocracy"12
enon ofthe end ofthe Cold ofideological
He conceivedthat the demise
ofcommunism has led theend-point
to
as the final fornm ofhuman
evolutionand the emergence
ofWestern liberal democracy
the then two superpowers,liberal
capi
conflict betwcen
government.In theideological
of
cstablished itssupremacy.In one sense
talismproved more successful and ultimately
competitor to liberal capi
the term,l'ukuyamais right as thereis no longerone single
more interested to settle the
idcology. Besides, powers are no
talismas an over-arching
throughthe instrumcntality ofwar.But this is not the correctpicture
ISsucs of conflict
albeitfragmented ones.
global scenario. Liberal capitalisnmhas many competitors,
of the
much a part of capitalism and are global market
are very
For instance,China and Russia theshape
taking
fundamentalism
Besides,
nor
isliberal
places,yet neither
fully
capitalist.
24 Chapter 2

is anotherchallengeto emerging liberal

capitalism.Moreover,ethnic,
ofglobal terrorism
religious communalism do work as important
and 'national' in thisnew process.
irritants
Therefore, to interpretthe currentchange as the end of historyor triumphofliberal

democracy does notpresenta truepictureofthe presentglobal order.

Rejection ofthe above thesishas been done by a new kindofinterpretation by Hun

tington,who believedthat insteadofideological or economic divisions, now the world

would be dividedon the basis ofculturalfaultlines among states.1He classified the

worldintoeight important (Westernand LatinAmerican,

civilizations A frican, Islamic,
Sinic,Hindu,Orthodox, Buddhjstand Japanese) and averredthat the future course of
conflictswillbe witnessedon the faultlinesofthese civilisations.But realistically speak

nations continue to give

ing,neitherhis divisionnor his categorisationiscorrect, a s

seriousconsideration to national boundarieswhich are more explicit than these vague

partitions.Besides, divergences continueto exist withinthese civilisations themselves,

withinthe same civilisationcan be witnessed. T hus, one thing
and as a result,conflicts
iscertainthat the chaotic worldorderseems to be the storyof the day and India has to

interact itsforeignpolicygoals not witha well-knit and defined worldorder, but in an

uncertain world. And ultimately,lotsofdifficulties

are bound to be there to cope-up with
the current
global scenario.
Joseph Nye,Jr.is oftheviewthat on thebasisofthecurrent
S. distribution ofpower,
worldorder can be termed as one based on "multilevel interdependence".The current

global patternresemblesa complex three-dimensional chess gamel4 In this complex

system,in terms ofmilitary power,the worldislargely unipolar withthe UnitedStates

the second level,
in terms ofeconomic issues, the United
as the sole superpower.But at

ithas to bargain
a hegemonic power or an empire,rather
Statesis not on equal termswith
the EuropeanUnionifthe latter way.At the bottomlevelare the transna
actsin a unified
tionalrelationsthat cutacross and cross bordersoutside the control ofgovernments and
includeactors as diverseas bankers and terrorists. Here,power ischaotically dispersed.
Besides,inthiskindofworldorder, which isalready economicallymultipolar and there
willbe a diffusionofpower as the information revolution progresses, interdependence
isgoingto enhance,and transnational actorswillbe more important. Therefore, India
has tointeract witha worldwhich isverycomplex and cannot be comprehended with
terminologies likeunipolarity,hegemony or multipolar worldorder.
Althoughsuggested as a policy measure forthe US to "manage the transition" inits
favour,Richard N. Haass presentedan altogether different p icture of the world order
which is more akin to prevailing 15 He isofthe view that the presentworldorder
realities,
is in an "age ofnon-polarity" wherein,the worldis dominated not by one or two or
evenseveralstatesbutratherby dozens ofactors possessing and exercisingvariouskinds
ofpower. This representsS a tectonicshiftfrom the Cold War era.In this context,six
major and numerous regional powers play an important The six major powers rep
role.
resenting the currentglobal scenarioare China,the EuropeanUnion (EU),India, Japan,
 25
Changing Foreign PolicyDynamics

powers are Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Mexico and

Russia and the US. The main regional
Nigeria and South Africai nAfrica; Egypt, Iran, Israel and
SS. VenezuelainLatinAmerica;
Asia;Australia, Indonesia and South
ral Saudi Arabiain theMiddleEast:Pakistan in South
and functional
Korea in East Asia and Oceania.Besides,a good many global,regional
segments ofthe current g lobal order. Even a large
organisations will form important
companies,militia, political parties,religious institutions,drugcartels,
rld number ofglobal
willform part ofsuch worldorder. Thus,today'sworld is "increasingly one
the NGOs, etc.,
develop its foreign
ratherthanconcentratedpower:"Hence, India has to
ofdistributed,
where diffused and a multi-layered
of policyina hybridkindofworldwhich isevolvingand
and inthisprocess, italsohas a significant position ofitsown
zk power structure is present,
to determinethe future direction of the world.
as part ofmajorpowers who are going
processhave theoretically changed the
Thus,theend ofCold War and globalisation
On the one hand, a situation of
Nes, structural andoperational dimensionsofglobal politics.
(i.e.,
ng non-polarity iswitnessedwithhegemony and dominance oftheonlyhyper-power
ofuncertainty and fluidity in international relations. On
to US). Ithas createda situation
multifarious engagements with the US, and itsefforts t owards
lan the other hand,India's

th alternativestrategicpartnerships along withforging oftieswithnew economic groupings

certain in the global system. As a result, the exactoutcome ofits
have deniedit of a status

er, new foreign policy orientationhas become very unpredictable.

ent
lex
Eies

Eed BO1 heorizingWorld Order.:

ith Some scholars are of the view world order cannot

that the post-Cold War
dividingitintotheirworlds or econom
be understood eitherby politically
end icallydividingintotwo worlds; and nor throughdependency or 'centre
willbe more
or (post-socialism'
itpost-colonial'
Sed. peripheryphrase,rathercalling
here appropriate.
beyond the confinesof stat
ofthe discipline
Rhce Some are ofthe view that recasting
ofthe traditionofInternationalRelations.
ndia ism representsa revivification

with Some othershave defined the current worldorderin theparadigmof"Subject"

thephenomenon of'major'
As a result, and 'minor'
and "Object" power structure.
is placed as a "middlepower"or "greatregionalpower"
Aits power,whereinIndia
ofhistory'and triumph of democracy.'
Tder • Fukuyama explaineditin terms of'end
der • Huntington viewed it as the 'clashof among Western, LatinAmeri
civilizations'
can, Africa,
Islamic,Sinic, Hindu,OrthodoxBuddhistand Japanese.
interdependence'as a
hds •Joseph S. Nye Jr. explaineditin terms of 'multi-lateral
,six 'three-dimensionalchess game.
has been Richard N.Haass, who viewed thisphenomenon
as
More akin toreality
Pan, worldorder.
'non-polar'
26 Chapter 2

OPERATING DYNAMICS OF INTERNATIONAL ORDER

implications on the practice
Theoretical changes at the global levelhave far-reaching
Consequently,India is bound to respond to these opera
of international relations.
policy goals in the changed global milieu.Before
tional dynamics to achieveitsforeign of
itbecomes essentialto have a glimpse
analysingIndia's new foreignpolicy outlook,
have been responded to by different
states.
these global changes and toassess how these
the bilateral
Besides,itisequally important toknow how these changes have transformed
and multilateral responsesamong states.
in the changingtimes is
relations
If
a broad look at the workingof international
unipolar norit
worldisneither completely
taken,itbecomes manifestthat the present
rathera very precarioussituation h as emerged inducting
has moved tomultipolarity,
relations.The emergence ofso-called denocratic
fluidityto the practiceo finternational
have givenbirth tohegemony and dominance ofthe
order' and triumphofcapitalism' wars and
recent Gulf
onlysuperpower,i.e., theUS.Thisfactorbecame evidentduring the
These developments have
the roleplayedby the US-NATO combined duringthese crises.
mark on the relevance of the UnitedNationsbuteven reduced
notonlyputa question
organisation which was established tosave the succeeding
the statureofan international
truethatcompletepax-Amer
generations from the scourge ofwar.Itis,however,equally
icana has not been evolvedas a result
ofitsincreasedstatus.The forcesoffundamen
toprovidea bigchallenge to the superiority ofthe US.
talismand terrorism continue
indifferentparts ofthe
Incident of9/1 1 and the continuousthreatsoffundamentalism
But in the overallbilateral and multilateraltieswith
worldare proofs ofsuch resistance.
dominance and hegemony can be noticed.
the outsideworld, American
other centres of powers like t he European Union,Russia,Britain,
Simultaneously,
are also,making efforts fortheir autonomy.
France,Germany, Japan, China,India, etc.,
of dictates o f the US, rather,they are busy
However, they are notdoing itin defiance
relatively better
in enhancing their closerties withthe US. They seem to be enjoying
tothe rest of the developing states,notbecause of
autonomous positions, as compared
clout, but because oftheir non-conflictual attitude
theirbetter economic and political
however, complete convergence of inter
towards the US. Despitethis understanding, a

the US and these statesismissing. Rather bothofthem are having a hate

ests between
which has neitherpolarisedthem intoa complete divergent
position
love relationship
norprovided space for independentworkingforthese countries.
Rest ofthe developingcountriesare neithersecurenor autonomous intheirworking

They are completelyperipheral

relations.
international and are beingmarginalised to
in
US and other centresof
the extentofbeingneglected. They are swaying between boththe
leveragefrom eitherofthem. Due to
powers.They dont form any political groupto drive
even theireconomic bargaining position has been
the changed contextofglobalization,
have any role inthe decision-making processinthe new global
reduced and theydon't
m embership third
ofdifferent w orldgroupings NAM)
(e.g., iS

economicorder. Even their

 Changing Foreign PolicyDynamics 27
ofno consequence as the latter
istooweak toassert any
withany powerful confrontationist/concerted
stand
tice group.
nera India'sposition isalso beingsandwiched in
the middlegroup. On theone hand,it
isstrengthening itsposition
elore throughvariousnew permutation
the UnitedStates,and on the and combinationswith
Te of other, itis hobnobbingits positionamong other cen
tresof power and developingstates.
States. However, throughitssigningup of
utes on defence relations' agreed min
teral (1995),'GeneralSecurityand Military
ment (GOSMIA)'(2002),High Information Agree
Technology Cooperation Group (2002),Next Steps in
StrategicPartnership' (2004), New Frameworkforthe
nes 1s US-IndiaDefence Relationship'
(2005),India has consolidated
n0r it itsmilitary-to-military withthe US.l6Through
relations
theagreement on civil nuclearenergy deal and joint
cting on international
strategies terror
ism,itisbusy inenhancing itsrelations withthe US. ThiskindofIndia's
Dratic tilt
towardsthe
US isevident from itsefforts towardthe promotionoftheprocessof
ot the globalisationand
s and engaging, even sometimes following, dictateson the issueofnuclear counterprolifera
tion,globalterrorism and nuclearcivil energy agreement.1"Yet,Indiais also aware of
shave
itslimitations in goingalong withthe interests
uced ofthe onlyhyperpower. Consequently,
itis simultaneously making efforts to forge India-Russia-Chinatriangle
zding and bilateral
strategicpartnershipswithRussiaand China. Besides,itispart ofthe new combina
Finer
tions, likeG-4, BIMSTEC, ASEAN, ARE, IOR-ARC, India-Brazil-South
amen Africa,SCO,
toenhance itscredibility
etc., in the developing world.Besides,efforts
:US. are beingmade
to revitaliseNAM and the UN, along with democratisationof the latter,
of the accommo
datingIndia's demand forpermanent membership due to itspost-Pokhran-II
with status.
Thus,at thisjuncture, India isfacingan uncertainand undemocratic global orderwhich
requiresseriousefforts on itspart toget security guarantee and autonomyinthe deci
ilain,
sion-makingprocess.Hence, in thiscomplex and ambiguous international order,ithas
omy. tochoose itsoptions withextracare.
busy
better
Lse of BOX 2.2 Operating Dynamics of lnternational
Order
ilude
• The presentworldorderhas an edge towards USAs hegemony and
nter dominance,
butstill,
ithas not turnedintopax-Americana.
hate
Other centersofpowers are maintainingtheirpoliticalautonomy. But thisis not
Bition
against defianceofdictatesofthe US, rather
theyare doingitby maintainingtheir
closertieswiththe latter.
rking
sed to
• The remainingdevelopingcountries
have onlya marginalrolein the contempo
resof rary international
order.
Vue to
Inthis context,
India'sposition is veryprecarious
because on theone hand, itis

been improvingitsmilitary-to-military withthe US throughnumerous such

relation
agreements while on the hand, throughbalancing act,itis managing relations
Bobal withothercenters ofpowers and new regionalgroupings.
M)is
28 Chapter2

FOREIGN POLICY
OF INDIA'S
OPERATING DYNAMICS
Indiawithample butalso thrown
opportunities
The above scenariohas notonlyprovided
itsforeign Changingcontoursof
policy.
manifoldchallenges. Inshort,ithas toreorient
India'sforeignpolicycan be welldiscernedat threelevels.

Shifting
Alignments
enhanced roleoftheUS, Indiahas opted
Visualisingthe recentglobal changes and the
inthe post-Cold War global system.India-America
to be closerto theonlysuperpower rather theyare
ofthe cold war era,
relationsare no more constrained withthe differences
ofenhancing all-roundcooperation intheareasofeconomic,
moving inthedirection ofapproachon
strategicand even nuclear.
Duringthelast30 years,despitedivergences
levelof maturity in theirbilateral
numerous foreign policyisSsues,both have shown a
are now no more constrained
by the developments a thirdcoun
in
ties.Theirrelations totheir
bilateralcooperation,however, is notsmooth enough due
try.The pathoftheir between thenm
policyorientations.But thecompulsions
divergent worldview and foreign with the
cooperation. Simultaneous
are equally strongso as to bind them forfruitful with
maintaining a close relationship
building ofclosertieswith the US, Indiais also is based on
p artnership. This collaboration
Russiaand Chinain theform of'strategic
inallareas ofactivities. Besidesthe strengtheningof economic, strategic,
cooperation relationship to
ties,the threehave givenexpression
toforminga triangular
and political are infavour of establish
withstandemerging hegemony and dominance oftheUS and
worldorderin the post-Cold w ar era.'sThough they may not be
ment of amulti-polar
yet theira ctivitiesdo reflectthislurching
making open proclamation ofsuch intentions,
there numerous irritantsto such think
fearin theirmind.Some scholarsdo feelthat are
of such a
yet givencomplementarities between these threestates,the possibilities
ing,
Though policymakersinIndiamay notbe
always
triangularrelationship are verystrong.
doingeverythingpossible to strengthen individual ties
upbeat on thisidea,yet they are
withbothRussia and China.
a multi
To avoidany negativefalloutofglobal developments Indiaismore infavourof
framework.
institutional
polarworldorder throughthe strengthening ofinternational
the name of pre-emptiveattacks,the
present timesin
Itisevidentto Indiathat in the
by
questionedand isbeinghijacked the
roleand relevanceofthe UN system have been
the democratisationofthisinsti
combined forcesofthe US and NATO.Consequently,
notonlyforthe nationsofthethird worldbutalso forallother
tutionisa direnecessity
changed geostrategic,economic
members of the global community. Inthe contextof
along
Indiaalso aspiresfora permanent seat in thisstructure
and demnographic realities,
withcountriesofEurope, Africa and LatinAmerica.This questofIndiaismanifestfrom
through
concertedefforts
towards manoeuvring the veto power alongwithits
itsefforts
isbeingmade without a confrontationist
approach,
otheraspirantsofthe G-4. This effort
 29
Changing Foreign PolicyDynamics

tieswiththe concerned countriesofthe world.

ratherthroughconvictionand friendly
forIndiato attainthis position, an
Inthegivenscenariothoughitseems quite difficult
Wn
in the fulfilmentofitsobjective inthe long-term.
initiationoftheprocessmightresult
;of Relations withthe CentralAsian Republics (CARs) have also emerged as an impor

post-Cold war era because of this

tant area in Indianforeignpolicy outlook in the
!9 The developments in
thisregion
locationandproximity to India.
regionsgeo-strategic
impact on Indianforeignpolicy. Indiahad deep linkages
are bound to have a spillover
SovietUnion.Inthe presentcontext,due
ted withthesestatesduringthe timeoferstwhile
and energy constraints,
political alongwiththe convergenceof
ica toeconomic, strategic, towards thisregion. The com
are between the two, Indiaisbound tobe attracted
interests
are alsolikelyto work as cementing
ic, mon threat ofIslanmicfundamentalismandterrorism
on force in their
relations.
the regional ofSouth Asia.
environment As a
has influenced
ral Changed global milieu changes and isfaced
towards itsneighbourshas witnessedmultiple
Indiaspolicy
result,
policytowards China has seen qualitative
India's
ei withnew kind of challenges as well. ofLAC as
ofJWG on bordersand withthe recognition
em changes withtheestablishment by
decidedtoenhance mutualcooperation
he de factoborderby the two.Bothpowers also some mis
nuclearexplosionin 1998 created
India's
ith keeping aside the borderproblem. visitofIndian
by the political
on understanding between them,butitwas soon overcome
agreement on principlesto resolvethe border
fic, leadersto China.Later,by signingthe
ofpolitical tolookintothe workingofJWG and
representatives
to issue,theappointment respectively,
ofTibetand Sikkimas part ofChinese and Indianterritories
sh recognition of
views on thechangingnature
be bothcame closer toeach other.The convergenceoftheir
roleofthe UN have provided them with
ng international power structure andthedeclining
ik furtheropportunities forcomingclosertoeach other.
w ithPakistan have neitherfollowed thegeneralruleofemergingrelaxation
1a Relations
War periodnor has therebeen any constructive improvementin their
ys in the post-Cold
i t that Indo-Pak relationsare
ties.Inthe post-Genevaaccord period,
appears
ies bilateral
by Vajpayee during his
goingtobe cordial in future.Substantiated by "Bus Diplomacy"
U-turn in theirt iesinthe aftermath
lti visitto Lahore in February 1999,no one expectedthe
war.Later, the attack on Indian Parliamentin December 2005 broughtthem to
rk. ofKargil
mobiliseditsforceson the Pakistani border. Similarly, Mushar
he the brinkofwar as India
relationsagain reached a nadir.
he raf'sAgra visit alsoturnedout to be a fiasco.Hence, their
the Srinagarinitiativeby India in 2003 again broughtabout a ray ofhope.
ti However, later,
initiation of foreign secretary-level dialogues
ler The reciprocal posture by Pakistanand
of CBMs ofboth military and non-military
1ic during2003-2008 led to the enhancement
countries. The growthofbilateral cooperation in the form of
ng nature between the two
ofsoft-border
the initiative and cooperationin disastermanagement,
Dm rail-road
linkages,
M
contacts. umbai attacks into2008
gh boththe countriesare enhancing people-to-people
However, a new beginning
h, the ongoingCBM processbetween the two countries.
derailed
30
Chapter2

was made in to2010 withthe cominsofnew

governments in boththe countries.
Even in
2015,PrimeMinister Modi and Nawaz Sharif agreedtotheresumptionofbilateral talks.
Butcrossborderterrorist withthe supportofPakistanin
activities the formofPathankot
and Uriin2016 and Pulwama in2019 attacksledto
retaliatory
surgical strikesin 2016
and air strikein Balakotin 2019 by India.This resulted
in a complete deadlock intheir
bilateralrelations.Ifhistoricaltrajectory
oftheirbilateraltiesis taken as a guide,then
thereisless likelythatboth are going tosettle differences
amicably.Hence, peace may
deludetheir relationshipin the foreseeable
future.

Consolidating
EconomicCooperation
toge0-economics,Indiaintroduced
Recognisingthe global shiftfrom geopolitics many
structural
reforms.Itadopted the policy of "LookEast" to forge deeper economic ties
withthe countriesofthe East and Southeast Asia.Inthisprocess,itjoinedtheASEAN
first
as its"sectoral" as "full
dialogue partner and finally, dialogue partner".Besides
italso joinedASEAN as
economic cooperation, a founding member ofARF (ASEAN
RegionalForum) to co-operate withthe statesofthis regionin securitymatters.This,
alongwithitsmilitary-to-militarycooperationwiththe US, made ita prominentactor
arrangementsinthe Asia-Pacifc.
in the security Thisemerging thrust ofIndiaisevident
from the bilateral
economic cooperationand the establishment ofjointventuresby India
withthemajorcountriesofthisarea.Simultaneously, efforts
are beingmade to develop
all-round cooperationwiththe countriesofSoutheast Asiaandtomeet outtheemerging
challenges ofthe new worldordercropping up in the formofterrorism, drugtrafficking
and othersuch problems.20
The demise ofone global power also led to the riseofa phenomenon ofeconomic

regional
groupings.Hence,Indiais busy in developingcooperation
withASEAN, SAARC
and IORA. Besides,
efforts
are also beingmade to cultivate
inter-group
and intra-group
cooperation. ofSAARC and
Consequently,to enhance economic tiesbetween countries
ASEAN, a new initiativein the formofBIMSTEC has been taken.2 Ina largercontext,
Indiaisalso associatedwiththe formationofa largergroupofEast and SoutheastAsia,
alongwithNew Zealand and Australia, in the form ofEast Asian Summit (EAS) of16
countries. Thus, in the light
ofan emergingnew economic order, Indiais consciously
making efforts tomake itselfan economic power toreckonwith.22

Indias questto be an economic power ofsubstance demands the availability ofhuge

resourcesat itscommand so that itcan sustainitsprojectedannual growthrate of8 to
10%. India'soilimports has risento83.7% in2018-19 because itsoilconsumption has
reach to 211.6million tonnesduringthisperiod. itisbusy in compensating
As a result,
thesame throughnumerous collaborations withcountrieslikeVietnam,Sudan, Syria.
Russia,CARS, and traditional Gulfstates.In 1995,italso concluded a tripartiteagree
ment withTurkmenistan and Iranto importoilthroughpipelines. Indiais also engaged
injointinvestmentsinoilexploration abroad witha number ofcountries.
activities In
 31
ChangingForeign PolicyDynamics
OilImport (in Million
Table 2.1 India's tonnes)
n in
Country 2018 2019 (December)
lks. 49.2
Iran 47.71
1kot
42.59
Saudi Arabia 39.27
016 19.57
UAE 16.05
heir 18.49
16.05
hen Nigeria
15.9
17.3
Venzuela
nay 10.63
11.38
Kuwait
10.4
8.88
xico,
Maxic
9.13
4.86
USA
6.13
25.7
any ran
5.78
6.47
ties Angola
AN 26 Feb, 2020
Sourcer Tmes of India(New Delhi),
des
with Vietnam and
4N Ltd.(OVL) concluded agreements
thiscontext,its ONGC Videsh in December 2002.
is, first joint v entureinVietnambecame operational
Russia.The such inOctober2005 inwhich
tor in Sakhalin-I inRussiabecame functional
Second jointv enture a huge loan
also provided
ent InJanuary 2006, EximBank ofIndia
Indiahas 20% ofitsshare. Itis the second-largest investment
dia
ofUS$ 392 million forsuch investmentsin Sudan. Beijing,Indian
visit t o
op by theOVL afterSakhalin-I.
InJanuary 2006, again duringhis Cooperation
withChina'sNational Petroleum
ng ministerforenergysignedan agreement exploration projectsabroad. Inthe
withIndia's OVL foroil
ng for theirj oint bids Union. Russian
(CNPC) for Asian Energy
may facilitatethe foundation
future,thispartnership Besides,Indiaismaking
towardssuch proposals.
iic seems tobe inclined CARs,
leadershipalso
gas throughpipelines
from Iran,
C to
efforts acquire more and more oiland natural
may not be smooth,
these pipelines
Though supply through
Myanmar and Bangladesh. construction.23
earliest
nd efforts fortheir
yetIndiaismaking serious
xt,
ia, Confronting Strategic Challenges Ithas acquiredadded
policy.
foreign
to India's
16 has always been sensitive non-pro
The nuclearissue trackrecordin termsof nuclear
era.India's
sly importancein the post-Pokhran-II evidentfrom itsnuclear
been very transparent and perfect.This is also
has
liferation However, itcontinues
firstuse'and unilateral moratorium'on explosions. But
ge policyof'no foritssecurity.
to policy of development of'minimumnucleardeterrence'
to pursuethe
and nuclearsuppliers'
groupare goingto
as powers in itsneighbourhood withthe
how thenuclear On 18 July2005,a declaration
is a matter of concern.
g reacttothisdevelopment
has raiseda lotofhue
and cry in the country.
a, nuclear energy cooperation weapon
US on civilian ofcivil-military
to be divided on the question ofseparation
Experts seemed consequences ofsuch agreement
e
as, the long-term
:d orientednuclearprogramme,as well intermof
Now questions arise:Can Indiaremainindependent
foreign
forIndia's policy.
32
Chapter2

pressuresfrom the USA? Does openingofallitsnuclearfacilities

(including
fastbreeder
reactorsand other researchfacilities)
forthe inspectionofIAEA compromise itsSecu
These and otherrelatedquestions are ofgreat concern forthe foreignpolicymakers
rity?
today.
isa seriousproblemaffecting India'sdomesticstability and security.This
Terrorism
Punjab in huge way and Jammu & Kash
problemn is notnew as ithad earlier affected a

mir has been at the receivingend ofit since the 1980s. Even a huge rolewas playedby
thathappened duringthatperiod.
outsidepowers as is evidentfrom the many incidents
of11 September in the US, it has acquireda new dimension. Later
But afterthe incident
response have brought international
on,the developments in Afghanistanand America's
at the doorstepofIndia. As a result, Indiagave an open offerofcooperation
terrorism
terrorism but the latter continuestorelyon
totheUS tocrushtheTaliban and suppress
about the similarity ofapproach on this
Pakistan.This has raisednumerous questions
itseems that terrorism has acquired a global
issue between Indiaand America. Though
problem continues tobe differentinterms of
dimension, yetitmust be admittedthatthe
Time and pace
itsdefinition,methodology and consequencesfrom countrytocountry.
innature butalso
ofdevelopmentofterrorism inthe two countriesare notonlydifferent
international terrorism and
require differentprognosis. Hence, in thechanged context,
Indiahas thus to understand
in Indiaare two different situations.
terrorism prevailing
friendly gestures to the outsideworldforthereso
these basic diferenceswhilemaking
ithas tobe careful in selecting the optionsforthe resolu
lution ofthisproblem. Besides,
initscountry and global terrorism.
tionofthe problemofterrorism

BOx2.3Anerinsynitattro
to the orderby
changinginternational
India'sforeign policyis adaptingitself
(ii)
consolidating economiccooperation; and (ii)con
() shifting alignments;
fronting strategicchalenges.

• Inshiftingalignments,Indiais managing itsrelations

()
by improvingbalancing
US, Russia and China; democratisation
(ii)
ties and strategicpartnershipwith the
with the Central A sian Republics (CARS); and,
oftheUNSC; (üi) buildingbridges
importantneighbours, China and Pakistan.
i.e.,
tieswithboth
(iv)improving
Indiais making forbetter
its efforts
economic cooperation,
Towards evolving
statesand region;
Indo-Pacific joining new economic
economic tieswithASEAN
agreements for pro
groupings; and,ensuringenergy securitythroughnumerous
curingoilfrom different regions.
itsproblems by signing
ofuraniumfuelfornuclearcapabilities
• Indiai s managing
groupand making concerted efforts
of civilnucleardeals withnuclearsuppliers'
to tacklethenon-traditional threats
in theform ofterrorism.
 33
Changing Foreign PolicyDynamics

reeder Problemsand ProspectsforIndia

secu However,therealisation
ofthese new goals isnotgoingto be a smooth processforIndias
nakers foreignpolicymakers.They have to comprehend variouschallenges and devisemul
ti-prongedstrategies
for the skilfulhandling ofissues at global, regionaland bilateral
This levels.
Kash ofthe issues
isto understandthe complexities
(a) The most arduous task ata global level
bedby relations.As the
explainedearlier, emerging
confronting contemporary international
eriod. in the name ofpre-emption' and
unipolarity caused a seriousthreattonation-states
has
Later i.e.,
the US, This has been further com
export democracy' by the onlysuperpower,
of
by the
tional weak United Nations. Even the availableforums ofconcertedefforts
plicatedby a
assertions ofthe
iration to withstand these dominant
countries ofSouth'are no more resilient notin
socialist worldis a

elyon Even India's support base in the erstwhile

onlyhyperpower. context.
in this
such hegemony and dominance in the new
position to confront
global has emerged as a significant force in the post
Besides,the processofglobalisation development has
ms of a paradoxical situation.This
ColdWar world.This change has created of the onlysuper
ipace been creating a 'closedpolity'by way ofhegemony and dominance an
economic sphere, it has introduced
Italso
power intheinternational system,whereasin the
and privatisation. Hence, political
liberalisation
open economy' throughthe process of
n and
stand ofinternational system' isnot availableto a
accommodation in termsofdemocratisation
reso Simultaneously, itsopeningup ofthe market isnotgoing
developing countrylike India.
economic institutions
2solu
to provide iteconomic opportunities throughthe international
Thus,ithas been rightly observed that "If on the
likethe IME WorldBank and WTO.
ofglobal distribution ofpower has tobe negotiatedby
one hand,undemocraticreality
opportunities have tobe dealt with
foreignpolicymakers, on the other,constraintsand
India."24
by everynation-stateincluding
task tocreate a balance between different
Indiaisalso facinga daunting
Presently,
by from the onlysuperpower,
prevailing centresofpower.Inthis changed scenarioapart
European Union, Japan, Russia,China,
n
certainother power centres inthe form of the
are not homogenous intheir
Germany, India, etc.,are emerging.Though these centres
ng fortheirautonomy and
on fightagainst emerging unipolarity,yet theyare making efforts
The challenge before India ishow to cre
process.
1d, space intheglobal decision-making
US, on the one hand, and these
by evolvinga balance between the
ate a nicheforitself
are fighting against the Amer
cer emerging power centres, on the otherhand.The latter
a multipolar worldorder. Indiaseems
ic icanhegemony and dominance by establishing
to have made effortsin boththe directionsduringthe lastthree decades. on the one
If,

cooperation
to create military-to-military
throughNext Steps
hand, by making effort
'NewFramework Defence
forthe US-India
Partnership' (NSSP) (2004) and
in Strategic
other
coming closerto the UnitedStates,then,on
the
rts Relationship'(2005), Indiais
StrategicTriangle' with
to
hand, effortsare beingmade to enterIndia-Russia-China
 34 Chapter 2
and practiceofIndo-UScooperation
stand the pressuresofthe US. However, the theory
even working as an allyof the USA.
closerand sometimes
revealsthat Indiais coming are yet tobe consolidated.
collaborations
and trilateral
strategicpartnership task forIndia
be a difficult
Bilateral forceswill
createa delicatebalance between these
Thus, to
in the near future.
1998,Indiahas notbeen able
nuclearstatusin May
by the acquisitionof
Moreover, from theneighbours, Indiahas
security threats
security p roblems. Besides, 1970s India has
to resolve its Sincelate
global politics ofnuclearproliferation. its nuclear capa
had to confront the
and laterCTBT so
that
to sign the NPT
been consistently pressurised situation has changed after
and eliminated: Butnow the
can be capped, reduced thestatus ofnuclear
bilities
optionby India. Now itisbeingdenied
the utilisation of nuclear strategies by the USA.
well as, itis engaged inthe 'counter-proliferation' states interested
weapon state,as forthe
as a new area ofchallenges
security isemerging its energy secu
Besides,energy Here Indiahas been denied
economic development. of Central
inenhancingtheir Asianoilpolitics. Pipeline politics
Sea and Central to devoid
rity due totheCaspian Oil Pipeline' are designed
and India-Myanmar isnot free
Asia-Iran-Pakistan-India' energydeal under123 agreement
India. Even NuclearCivil
of thisdeal has creatednegative
accesses oilto
liket he Hyde Act (2006). Consequently, are
from constraints new paradigmsofsecurity
i nthe domestic milieu ofthe hostcountry.Hence, than
fallouts and ambiguous
context, which are more complex
beingwitnessed in thechanged era.
the earlier threatsofthe Cold War
but also faced
encompassing Indiais not only volatile
(b)The regional environment The situation inCentral
itsforeign policy options.
influencing for influ
withnumerous challenges to prevailing power rivalry
and West Asia is tense due
Asian Republics(CARS) All the fivestates of CARs, along
and control overthe preciousresources. of
ence building of MNCs the
to withstandthepressure
withstatessurrounding the Caspian Sea, have oil.
and Indian thrust for getting
USA, UK, Italy, as wellas, the Russian, Chinese
etc., in a region
allare passing through the processofstateand nation-building
Domestically, and religious strife in their
are also witnessingethnic
bereftof democraticnorms.They along with contin
and multi-racial systems.Two gulfwars in West Asia,
multi-cultural condition notonly
and Palestine, have createda difficult
ued differences among Israel
its supply to large parts
in the region butalso foroilpriceand
forpeace and tranquillity from these
of oilthrough pipelines
India. The transportation
ofthe world,including interests in this area.
due to politics and outsidepowers'
regions has also been disrupted to manoeu
withboth theseregions, has notbeen able
India, though ithas good relations
in a direction favourable to itsforeign policy goals.
veritsposition
e conomic factors have acquired significance
As is evidentin the post-Cold war era,
growthof regional economic group
in the relations among the states.Consequently,the
But despitethe urgency and necessity of such collaborations
ingshas been inevitable.
 35
ChangingForeign PolicyDynamics

among the states of this region, theyhave not been able toforge closereconomicties.
Though some economic regional groupings such as-IORA,BIMSTEC, SAFTA (under
d SAARC),etc.,have been established, yetforone or theotherreason they have failed to
dia
delivertherequisite result.CARs have also formedSCO, alongwithRussian and Chinese
but India's roleremains limited. These efforts couldnotbecome a reality
participation,
Due to this trend,SAFTA
due to 'trustdefici'among the major states in
ble the region.
areyet totake-off. Allthesegroupings
has cannotbecome viableand IORA and BIMSTEC
of
and absence strategies capable
has couldnot flourish due to thelackofinstitutionalisation
system.
ofhandlingtheemergingchallengesofthenew global securitythreatswith a
some non-conventional
ter Moreover,the regionis also facing and America's attackon
foreign policy.The incident of 9/11
Rar spillover impacton India's terrorism on the
in Afghanistanhave brought
out international
SA.
AlQaeda's activities proxywar scenario
prevailing
ced
doorstepsofIndia. Ithas notonlyaggravatedthe already terroristactivitiesin sur
enhanced the riskof such
between Indiaand Pakistanbuthas Thishas furtherpro
of West, Central and theSoutheast Asianstates.
Eral rounding regions ethnic
existingactivitiesofsmall arms exportsamong
oid videdmomentum tothe already fora longer period is a big
such activities
iree and terroristgroups inthe area.25 Financing process
thesegroupsare involved i n the
activities
tive challengeforthem.So to sustainsuch ofcrescent'
are in the region. Consequently,smuggling alongtriangle
ofdrug trafficking India became sandwiched as
han became a routine As result,
activity. a

and goldentriangle' have encouraged

these two regions.Thus, theseactivities
itforms the centralarea linking
which foreign policymakers have todeal with
non-conventional
several forIndia,
threats
red
and promptness.
utmostseriousness
ral
neighbours-Pakistan and
(c) BilaterallyIndiaismending fenceswithboth ofitsmajor
a composite dialogue to enhance
ong China.Inthe 21stcentury,Indiaand Pakistanstarted
the (CBMs) between them.Under thisprocess,troopsreduc
confidence-building-measures
Baghliherdam,etc., were initiated;
oil. tion,dialogue on Sir Creek,WullarBarrage,Siachen,
On Express); running of bus; openingof
runningofTharExpress (in addition toSamjhauta
heir opening transportation of goods through
consulates;agreed mechanism on terrorism;
in
have improvedtheirr elations.
However, neithert he end ofacts
trucksfrom Wagha, etc.,
nly ofterrorism nor SAFTA (because ofnon-grant of MFN status by Pakistan) have become
Non-establishmentofa stable regime in Pakistanis provinganotherirritant
arts
a reality.
Dese
between the two countries.
rea.
irritant
phase,a slight
Inthepost-Pokhran-II between India-Chinarela
was noticed

tions.However, things were brought

undercontrol
throughthemutualvisits
ofleadersof
boththe states.VisitsofIndianleadersJaswant Singh(1999 and 2002), K.R. Narayanan
nce (2000), George Fernandes (2003) and AtalBihari Vajpayee (2003) restoredtheearlier
Pup
warmth in theirties.These were reciprocated
by Chinainthe form ofvisits
by Tang Jiax
Ons
uan (1999),Li Peng (2001),Zu Rongji(2002),Wen Jiabao (2005) and Hu Jintao(2006).
36 Chapter 2

political representatives'in 2003 notonlyto boost C

Both alsoagreed to appoint'special

which Joint Working Group (WG)
tiesbut also to take some boldinitiatives
the
their
iswitnessed from their dialogue process, as
cannottake.The sincerity oftheirefforts
rounds of talks (1981-1987= 8
toOctober 2007 had been able to conduct
both
33
up
by JWG; and 2003-2007 = 7 Rounds by Special Politi
rounds;1988-2003 = 14 Rounds
Even bothagreed in 2003 on
the
toresolvetheirborderproblem.26
cal Representatives) and in 2005
forRelationsand Comprehensive Cooperation'
Declaration on Principles ofBoundaryQues
forSettlement
the Parametersand Principles border
on the Agreementon have notserved the purpose and the
tion!"
However, these CBMs and goodwill

problemstill remains unresolved. itsrelations

notbeen able toimprove
the above efforts ofCBMs, Indiahas major irritantbetween
Despite toworkas a
stateofaffair continues
Trust d eficit proxy war isresolved,
withneighbours. terrorism and
Pakistan,until the problemof a number of con
them.Inthe case of itsside. S India
imilarly, has extended
freefrom in making adjustments
Indiacan'tbe tension turnto show the grace
itis the latter's
China,and now, over ArunachalPradesh
cessionsto
itselffrom stakingitsclaim without
on the border.Ithas also to refrain them sincelong.
Therefore,
of dispute between with them.
an area
which has been not
in peace
itsneighbours
Indiacan'tremain prevail
with neitherpeace can
genuineconfidence Pakistan and China
building
the cooperation between India,
tothe cause of global peace.
n thecase
Without can contribute towork as a
states strength
inSouth Asia,nor these have notbeen able to acquiresufficient
ofthem
ofSouth Asia, all

foreignpolicy.
forIndia's
order is not withoutproblems ambigu
The changed global policyin complex and
Indiah as to shape itsforeign decliningpower
• At a global level,negative economic falloutsofglobalization; nuclear
order; of fuelforitscivil
ous political and the need ofsupply
ofinternationalorganisation;
needs. in theCARs
and issues emanating
has toface problems
• At regionallevels, India fromemerging
itself
arrangements; and safeguarding
new regional
and westAsia;
securitythreats.
non-traditional foreignpolicy has tomanage 1
l the
evel, biggestchallenge forIndia's
• At a bilateral and Pakistan.
main neighboursChina
cordialtieswithits policy
itsforeign
tobe able
scenario,Indiahas not onlyto equip to
• Thus, inthe new capabilities
world,italso has
toenhance itsdomestic
confrontan uncertain nilieu.
to
in the contemporary
international
get the requisitespace forIndia
 37
Changing ForeignPolicyDynamics

countervailingforce against unipolarhegemony and dominance atglobal level. IfIndia

and Pakistan are balancing the US position in South Asia, then Indiaand China have

ofdirectopposition to the onlysuperpower.Even the India

alsonotadopteda position
trianglehas remained in itsinfancy,unable tomanifestitsdirect
Russia-Chinastrategic
regionaland bilateral--India
is
oppositiontothe US. Thus,atallthe threelevels-global,
foritsforeignpolicynotonlyin termsofmendingitsfences
witnessinggrave challenges
b ut to withstandthe threatofunipolarglobal order.Despiteits
withitsneighbours also
ofnuclearweapons status,itis notina position
to
goodwill in theregionand acquisition

work as an independent centreofpower in the global arena.

CONCLUSION transfor
light ofcontemporary
From theabove analysis, itcan be discernedthatinthe are inevitable. Since the
changes in India's foreign policy
milieu, and multi-dimensional
mations in the global magnitude, all-round
changes has been of
a vast
of has not been
nature these
be ruled out.However, all this
foreign policy cannot
challenges at all
three
changes inIndian multiple
without l ong term consequences. Now have
very smooth and decision-makers. Indianpolicymakers
by foreign policy resolve new crises
levels are beingwitnessed from the past but also to
the problemsinherited auton
not onlyto deal with they have tocarve
developments. Simultaneously,
emanating from contemporary itspolicymakersto
globalorder. Hence,thereisa need for
omy forIndia i nthe prevailing Indiahas
the processofglobalisation.
changes, along with
have a holisticview ofcurrent compromisingits
the benefitsarising outofthisprocesswithout pol
tomake efforts to reap
an evolution ofa new consensuson foreign
Besides, there is a need for due to new
sovereignty. consensus has become
redundant
icyinthe light ofbizarrechanges. Earlier level.Moreover, despiteits
at the domestic
moorings beingwitnessed challenges
kind ofideological to confront the new
ithas tothink beyond 'bilateralism'
enhanced capabilities,
and export ofdemocracy' in an erawhere
in the formof'doctrine
ofpre-emptive attack' Finally, without
the crisisoftheiroblivion.
institutionslike NAM and UN are alsofacing for it to face the chal
economic strength,itmay not
be possible
the developmentofits
market.
lenges ofthe world withan egalitarian order
ofitssocio-economicfabric
Simultaneously,strengthening not constrain itsforeign policy
so thatdomesticfactorsmay
isalso the need ofthe hour
on foreign policy goals are the pre-requi
and consensus
outlook.Thus, new orientation
the challengesofthe contemporary
world.
siteto meet out
38 Chapter2
I7.
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June 2003;"India-China
Digest,35(5),
Strategic May 2007,pp.500-504; http://meaindia.nic.in.