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Repre 20240611090551
Repre 20240611090551
Repre 20240611090551
Suresh Rathi
Wealth Creator thru Systematic Investment
Disclosures and Disclaimer : This report must be read with the disclosures in the Disclosure appendix,
and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. This document does not contain any investment views or opinions.
Suresh Rathi Market Forecast Tuesday
Wealth Creator thru Systematic Investment 11th June, 2024
# The Good News: Nirmala Sitharaman returns as India's finance minister. Bank Nifty 49781 -0.04%
# Simply put, any uncertainty is not put to rest as policy continuation is likely Nifty Auto Index 25023 0.01%
# Sitharaman will now be gearing up for her 7th Budget where she is Nifty Infra Index 8807 0.62%
expected to strike a balance by providing fiscal consolidation policy, support Nifty IT Index 34526 -1.83%
to growth calls for continued emphasis on capital spending.
Nifty Media Index 2007 1.87%
# The other three key ministries remain same with Amit Shah as the home Nifty Midcap Index 14908 -0.30%
minister, Rajnath Singh as defence minister and Dr S Jaishankar as external
Nifty Metal Index 9796 -0.38%
affairs minister.
Nifty Pharma Index 19775 1.00%
# The most surprising addition to the Cabinet was TDP MP Ram Mohan Naidu,
Nifty Reality Index 1084 1.32%
who has become the new Civil Aviation Minister, replacing the BJP's
Jyotiraditya Scindia, who has been given charge of the Telecom Ministry. Nifty Smallcap Index 17475 1.51%
Nifty Outlook
Outlook on Tuesday: Nifty is likely to consolidate.
# The positive takeaway from yesterday’s session was that Nifty and Sensex Medium Term Positive (21750-23500)
printed new record high at 23412.90 and 77079.04 respectively. Long Term Positive (20500-24500)
ü India’s CPI inflation and domestic IIP data to trickle in on Wednesday, Key Levels to Watch
June 12th Nifty Support 23000/22507
ü China’s CPI and PPI numbers are scheduled for Wednesday, June 12th Nifty Resistance 23501/23750
# Bullish Sectors: METAL, BANK NIFTY, PHARMA, PSE, REALITY. Action BUY
Call writing was seen at 24000 and then at 24500 strike price, while there was GMR Airports Infrastructure Consolidated quarterly numbers:
SAIL, ZEE ENTERTAINMENT EBITDA stands at Rs. 940.35 crore in March 2024 up 156.75%
from Rs. 366.25 crore in March 2023.
# Nifty: In yesterday’s trading session, bullish consolidation was the preferred theme as Nifty ended lower in an up-and-
down session. The positive takeaway was that the benchmark scaled fresh all-time-high at 23411.90 mark.
In the process, Nifty formed a small spinning top candle but that said, the structure still appears quite bullish on the daily
charts.
The technical landscape suggests Nifty’s major support at 23000/22507 mark. Interweek support seen at 21900 mark.
# Bank Nifty: In Monday’s trading session, Bank Nifty witnessed massive bullish consolidation and the positive takeaway
was that the benchmark ended only a tad below the dotted lines.
Bank Nifty was mostly seen mirroring Nifty’s range bound consolidation action. Bank Nifty ended with 0.04% losses as against
Nifty’s 0.13% losses.
Interestingly, in Monday’s trade, Nifty PSU Bank index ended 0.71% higher while Nifty Private Bank index ended 0.09%
higher.
Intraday support for Bank Nifty now seen at 49300/48500 mark and then at 46375 mark on closing basis.
In today’s trade, Bank Nifty is likely face resistance only at 50500/51133 mark. Bank Nifty’s 200-DMA is placed at 46278 mark.
ECONOMIC CUES:
# Data from the ISM showed that the US services activity expanded the most in nine months, above expectations, while prices
faced by the sector slowed more than expected to prevent the pressure of a hawkish outlook for the Fed.
In the meantime, the ADP report showed that private businesses added fewer jobs than expected, in line with other data that
points to a softening, albeit healthy labor market.
# The Personal Consumption and Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which measures consumer spending, was up 0.3% from
March to April, matching what was seen the month prior and arriving in line with economists' predictions. The annual increase
in the PCE index was also unchanged at 2.7%.
In Monday’s trade at Wall Street, US stocks were trading mixed and blame it on a strong jobs report Friday which diminished
hopes that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates this year.
The positive takeaway was that the Nasdaq Composite was leading the major stock indexes on Monday, thanks to a big boost
from chip stocks.
Traders now see the Fed waiting until at least September before cutting rates, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Nifty and Sensex end lower after printing new record high at 23411.90 and 77079.04 respectively.
Anxiety prevailed as all eyes on the portfolio allocations under the new government.
NIFTY (-31, 23259)
Sensex (-203, 76490)
Bank Nifty (-22, 49781)
In the morning session, investors were seen greeting Prime Minister Narendra Modi returning as PM for third straight term.
But later in the session, anxiety prevailed as the street seen speculating for Nirmala Sitharaman as the ideal choice as Finance
Minister in Modi 3.0
# Long story short: Volatility could again spike if there is any change in the Finance Ministry portfolio.
# Adv-Dec 27—23
INDIGO: Swing traders get ready, Your favorite stock (INDIGO) is aiming a major higher high/low play.
Derivatives Strategies
Changes in Open Interest (OI) in yesterday’s trade.
Future Call: BUY SRF JUNE FUTURES at CMP 2352. Targets at Nifty Spot 23259.20 (-0.13%)
2411 and then at 2451. Stop at 2299. Holding Period: Intraday.
Analyst’s Remark: Rebound Play. (SRF JUNE Futures CMP 2352) Bank Nifty Spot 49780.90 (-0.045%)
• Maximum Put Open Interest (OI) was seen at strike price 22000 Index Future Volumes 1,66,298 10,649
followed by 20000 strike prices for 27th June series. Short Buildup was
seen at strike prices 22000-22200. Stock Future Volumes 7,46,181 58,104
• For Bank Nifty, Maximum Call Open Interest (OI) stands at 47000 Index Option Volumes 4,70,81,366 34,71,414
Strike Price and Maximum Put Open Interest stands at 47000 Strike
Price. Stock Option Volumes 11,77,863 99,333
Stock CMP Support Resistance 21 DMA 200 DMA Intraday Short Term Long Term
Nifty 50 23259 22794 23724 22649 21167 UP DOWN DOWN
Bank Nifty 49781 48785 50777 48647 46278 DOWN DOWN DOWN
FINNIFTY 22155 21712 22598 21649 20608 UP DOWN DOWN
NIFTY PVT BANK 24685 24191 25179 24137 23588 DOWN DOWN DOWN
NIFTYOILGAS 11687 11453 11921 11645 9884 UP DOWN DOWN
Nifty Auto 25023 24522 25523 23632 19052 UP UP UP
Nifty Commodities 9079 8897 9261 8910 7593 UP DOWN DOWN
Nifty FMCG 57992 56832 59152 55567 53766 UP UP UP
Nifty IT 34526 33836 35217 33472 34044 UP UP UP
Nifty Infra 8807 8631 8983 8649 7378 UP DOWN DOWN
Nifty Media 2007 1967 2048 1867 2148 UP UP UP
Nifty Metal 9796 9600 9992 9655 7813 UP DOWN DOWN
Nifty MidCap 50 14908 14610 15206 14534 12915 UP DOWN DOWN
Nifty PSE 10340 10133 10547 10373 7973 UP DOWN DOWN
Nifty PSU Bank 7334 7187 7481 7249 6061 DOWN DOWN DOWN
Nifty Pharma 19775 19379 20170 19113 17206 UP UP UP
Nifty Realty 1084 1062 1105 1012 791 UP DOWN UP
Nifty Smallcap 100 17475 17126 17825 16745 14793 UP UP UP
Pivot Point
PP : Pivot Point : This is trigger point for weekly buy/sell based on the price range of the previous week.
R1 : Resistance one : 1st Resistance over PP. R2 : Resistance two : 2nd Resistance over R1.
S1 : Support one : 1st support after PP. S2 : Support Two : 2nd support after S1.
As per the tool, the trader should take BUY position just above PP and keep the stop loss of PP and the first target would be R1.
If R1 is crossed then R2 becomes the next target with the stop loss at R1.
Similarly if price goes below PP the trader should SELL and keep the PP as Stop loss and the first target would be S1.
If S1 is crossed then S2 becomes the next target with the stop loss at S1.
This is a trading tool. The key to use of this tool is the use of STOP LOSS.
WTI CRUDE Crude Oil prices rebound amidst oversold conditions. Interweek strategy:
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and does not construe to be an investment advice. It is also not intended as an offer or
solicitation for the purchase and sale of any financial instruments. Any action taken by
you on the basis of the information contained herein is your responsibility alone and
Suresh Rathi Securities (P) Ltd., its subsidiaries or its employees or associates will not be
liable in any manner for the consequences of such action taken by you. We have
exercised due diligence in checking the correctness and authenticity of the information
contained in this recommendation, but Suresh Rathi Securities (P) Ltd. or any of its
subsidiaries or associates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or
damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information
contained in this recommendation or any action taken on basis of this information.
Technical analysis studies market psychology, price patterns and volume levels. It is used
to forecast future price and market movements. Technical analysis is complementary to
fundamental analysis and news sources. The recommendations issued herewith might
Suresh Rathi be contrary to recommendations issued by Suresh Rathi Securities (P) Ltd. in the
company research undertaken as the recommendations stated in this report is derived
Wealth Creator thru Systematic Investment
purely from technical analysis. Suresh Rathi Securities (P) Ltd. has based this document
on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not
independently verified; Suresh Rathi Securities (P) Ltd. makes no guarantee,
Suresh Rathi Securities (P) Ltd. representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or