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Environmental Research: Maryam Mirzaei, Mahmoud Bekri
Environmental Research: Maryam Mirzaei, Mahmoud Bekri
Environmental Research
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/envres
A R T I C L E I N F O A BS T RAC T
Keywords: Climate change and global warming as the key human societies' threats are essentially associated with energy
System dynamics model consumption and CO2 emissions. A system dynamic model was developed in this study to model the energy
Energy consumption consumption and CO2 emission trends for Iran over 2000–2025. Energy policy factors are considered in
Emission reduction analyzing the impact of different energy consumption factors on environmental quality. The simulation results
Scenario analysis
show that the total energy consumption is predicted to reach 2150 by 2025, while that value in 2010 is 1910,
which increased by 4.3% yearly. Accordingly, the total CO2 emissions in 2025 will reach 985 million tonnes,
which shows about 5% increase yearly. Furthermore, we constructed policy scenarios based on energy intensity
reduction. The analysis show that CO2 emissions will decrease by 12.14% in 2025 compared to 2010 in the
scenario of 5% energy intensity reduction, and 17.8% in the 10% energy intensity reduction scenario. The
results obtained in this study provide substantial awareness regarding Irans future energy and CO2 emission
outlines.
⁎
Corresponding author.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2017.01.023
Received 30 July 2015; Received in revised form 6 November 2016; Accepted 19 January 2017
0013-9351/ © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
M. Mirzaei, M. Bekri Environmental Research 154 (2017) 345–351
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Table 1 1600 million barrels in 2010 and 2600 million barrels in 2025. The
The values of input parameters used for model validation. results also indicate that energy production drops from the year 2019.
This decline may occur due to production limitations, which cause a
Year GDP growth rate Oil price (Rial/ Energy consumption (Mbarrel)
(%) L) reduction in energy production mass.
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M. Mirzaei, M. Bekri Environmental Research 154 (2017) 345–351
Fig. 5. Energy consumption, economic and CO2 emissions system flow diagram.
Fig. 6. Simulated energy production during 2000–2025. Fig. 8. Simulated CO2 emissions during 2000–2025.
that the policies are both effective in reducing the energy consumption
in the short term.
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M. Mirzaei, M. Bekri Environmental Research 154 (2017) 345–351
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