Abstract

Key words: business cycles, fluctuations, macroeconomics

JEL classification: E, N

Itroduction
Business cycles are fundamentally understood as fluctuations around an economic
trend that continues several years. Changes to potential GDP or natural unemployment
etc. are perceived as direct consequences of the phase of a business cycle and can be
analyzed with the purpose of meaningful and in depth study of the economic
fluctuations.

This study aims to appropriate the analysis of business cycles in UK from their
historical and structural perspective. The objectives of the research are to track the
specificity and dynamics of business cycles in period of 300 years. It is interesting to
note that the specificity of business cycles in the country is of high difference as
compared to those in other places of within the theoretical framework. The relevance
of this scientific and practical study is the in-depth business cycles knowledge that it
provides so that current crises and fluctuations to be understood and acted upon better.

Main research question lies in the following: By studying the specificity of chronology
of UK business cycles within 300 years is it possible to understand and act better on
the current yearly fluctuations in the country?

The whole business cycle in UK estimated from one peak in activity to the next one,
looks completely different over 300 years. It is noticed that post-war recessions have
become longer on average than those in the 18th and 19th centuries, still not as long as
those during the trans-war period, and have been more costly than those in the 19th
century, albeit not as much as downturns in the 18th century or the trans-war period.
(Broadberry, 2023). Before 2010, recessions had been less frequent. The Covid-19
pandemic of 2020-21 leads to additional falls in economic activity. The 2022-23
recession looks like the recession of the early 1990s within the first two years, but then
behaves like the protracted recoveries from the Great Depression and the global
financial crisis. The 1919-21 recession also includes a considerable sectoral
reallocation of resources as a result of lack of usage of raw materials, a major
pandemic in the form of Spanish flu (Broadberry, 2023).

Methodology and data:

Through present-day methodology of secondary research a timetable/chronology of

the business cycle in the UK has been analysed - from 1700 on an annual basis and
from 1920 on a quarterly basis. (Broadberry et al,

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR)

provided/accommodated the expertise/competance of examining the UK Business
Cycle through/via Dating Committee, which encloses leading academics and policy-
makers.

Secondary research was decided on for the aims of present paper as it doesn’t only
concern/relate to accumulating published data. (Williams, 2023) Secondary research is
worthwhile for the opportunities/conviniences it furnishes for incorporating extensive
number of data to come up with significant conclusions/outcomes. Examiners can cope
with great quantity of datasets/records, to pin down patterns, trends, and correlations
(Williams, 2023). This methodical/coherent technique reshapes raw data into
applicable insights, conducting corporations and nations in their strategic
endeavors/ventures (Williams, 2023).

Consequently, secondary research implies the analysis and clarification of existing

data and information collected by others. This data can come from a variety of sources,
such as academic papers, industry reports, market studies, government publications,
and online databases (Williams, 2023). By studying pre-existing data, businesses can
genrate valuable insights without the time and resource-intensive process of
conducting primary research, making it a cost-effective and efficient approach
(Williams, 2023).
Direct Data Collection: It involves gathering data directly from the source.
Researchers use methods like surveys, interviews, experiments, or observations to
collect specific information tailored to their study.

Specific to Study: The data collected in primary research is exclusive to the research
question at hand. It is designed to address specific inquiries and provide detailed,
targeted insights into the topic of interest.

Time-Consuming: Moreover, it can be time-intensive as it requires planning,

conducting surveys or interviews, and analyzing the collected data. Researchers invest
significant time to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the information gathered.

Tailored Questions: Researchers formulate precise and tailored questions to extract

relevant information from participants. These questions are carefully designed to elicit
specific responses, contributing to the depth of the research findings.

Costly: Implementing primary research methods often involves expenses related to

participant recruitment, survey administration, and data analysis. The costs can vary
based on the complexity and scope of the research.

Fresh Information: It provides fresh, firsthand information directly from the

participants. It offers unique perspectives and insights, making it valuable for studies
requiring original data.

Secondary Research

Existing Data Analysis: It involves the analysis and interpretation of pre-existing

data. Researchers explore reports, articles, studies, and other pre-existing information
to draw conclusions or generate insights.

Broad Overview: It provides a comprehensive overview of a subject matter. It

encompasses a wide range of data, allowing researchers to explore multiple facets of a
topic without the need for new data collection.

Time-Efficient: Researchers utilize information readily available from various

sources. This approach saves time compared to the process of collecting new data
through primary research methods.
General Insights: The insights gained are general. They offer a broad understanding
of a topic without the specificity that primary research can provide. Basically, it forms
a foundation for initial exploration.

Cost-Effective: Compared to primary research, it is cost-effective as it utilizes

existing data sources. Researchers do not incur the costs associated with participant
recruitment and data collection, making it a budget-friendly option.

Historical Data: Secondary research often involves historical data, which can provide
trends and patterns over time. Researchers can analyze past information to identify
changes, making it valuable for longitudinal studies.

The data collection has been carried out by identifying and gathering secondary data
sources among studies of economic cycles and their consequences in UK. The
following parameters of the research have been analyzed:

 Macroeconomic Indicators: for example GDP growth rates, inflation rates,

unemployment rates, interest rates, etc.

 Business Cycle Indices: established business cycle indicators like financial

indicators, trade and exchange rate that might have UK-specific influence have
been analysed.

 Sectoral Data: industry-specific data to understand sectoral impacts during

different phases of economic cycles has been explored.

 Policy Documents: government reports, policy statements, and central bank

publications related to economic cycles and policies have been collected.

References:
1. House of Commons., 2024, Economic Indicators.,
chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://researchbriefing
s.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-9040/CBP-9040.pdf
2. National Institute of Economic and Social Research, 2023, National Institute
UK Economic Outlook – Summer 2023,
chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.niesr.ac.uk
/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/JC737-NIESR-Outlook-Summer-2023-UK-v10-
AC.pdf?ver=BKXgUzLM5arUtaKogoc1
3. National Institute of Economic and Social Research, 2021, MODELLING THE
IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON THE UK ECONOMY: AN APPLICATION OF
A DISAGGREGATED NEW-KEYNESIAN MODEL,
chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.niesr.ac.uk
/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/DP531-5.pdf?ver=RWrAvKgnakOYHizUS2hx
4. National Institute of Economic and Social Research, 2021, MICRO LEVEL
DATA FOR MACRO MODELS: THE DISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTS OF
MONETARY POLICY,
chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.niesr.ac.uk
/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/NIESR-Discussion-Paper-529-4.pdf?
ver=kCWcSgBMkqRhOSeRcWk8
5. National Institute of Economic and Social Research, 2021, BE KIND OR
TAKE IT ON THE CHIN? POLITICAL NARRATIVES, PANDEMICS, AND
SOCIAL DISTANCING,
chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.niesr.ac.uk
/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/NIESR-DP528_0-4.pdf?
ver=byW7NgZACO6gYA6H6rKA
6. Williams., K., 2023, Secondary Research: Methods, Examples, and Strategic
Insights, https://surveysparrow.com/blog/secondary-research/