CONDITIONAL

PROBABILITY
 INTRODUCTION
Conditional probability is a fundamental concept in probability theory that helps us
understand how the likelihood of an event can change based on additional
information or conditions. It's about revising our initial probability estimates in light
of new information, allowing us to account for dependencies between events.
Essentially, it involves considering the probability of one event happening given that
another event has already occurred. This enables us to update our predictions and
make more informed decisions as we gather more data
In the school cafeteria, lunchtime is a big deal. Now, imagine if
what you pick for lunch also affects what drink you go for. Here's
the scoop: If you grab a slice of pizza, chances are you'll want juice
to go with it. But if you're more into pasta, then milk might be your
go-to drink. The cafeteria manager noticed this pattern and
started using it to plan ahead. By knowing what students are likely
to pick, they can make sure there's enough of everyone's favorite
drinks on hand. So, next time you're deciding between pizza and
pasta, remember, your drink choice might just go hand-in-hand!
 FORMULA

P(A/B): This represents the conditional probability of event A given event B. it's the probability of
event A occurring, taking into account the information that event B has already occurred. It tells us
how likely A is, given that we know B has happened.

∩
P(A B) This denotes the probability of both events A and B happening simultaneously, as the
intersection of A and B. It represents the case where both A and B occur together, without
considering any conditions.

P(B): This is the probability of event B occurring, also known as the marginal probability of B. It
represents the likelihood of B happening, regardless of any other events.
 PROBLEM
In a group of 100 sports car buyers, 40 bought alarm systems, 30 purchased bucket seats, and 20
purchased an alarm system and bucket seats. If a car buyer chosen at random bought an alarm
system, what is the probability they also bought bucket seats?

Step 1: Figure out P(A). It’s given in the question as 40%, or 0.4.

∩
Step 2: Figure out P(A B). This is the intersection of A and B: both happening together. It’s given in the
question 20 out of 100 buyers, or 0.2.

Step 3: Insert your answers into the formula:

∩
P(B|A) = P(A B) / P(A) = 0.2 / 0.4 = 0.5.

The probability that a buyer bought bucket seats, given that they purchased an alarm system, is 50%.
Multiplication Rule for
Conditional Probability
1.The multiplication rule states that the probability of two events A and B
1 occurring together is the probability of A occurring multiplied by the
conditional probability of B occurring given that A has occurred.

2.This rule formalizes the intuition that the likelihood of two events happening
2 in succession depends on the probability of the first event and the probability
of the second event given the first.

3.The multiplication rule is a fundamental principle in probability theory that

3 underpins many advanced concepts, including Bayes' theorem and decision-
making under uncertainty.
 Applications of conditional
probability in real-world
scenarios
Medical Diagnosis- Doctors use conditional probability to assess
1 the likelihood of a patient having a certain disease based on their
symptoms and test results.

Disaster Prediction- Meteorologists employ conditional probability

2
to forecast the chances of severe weather events, such as
hurricanes or earthquakes, occurring given certain environmental
conditions
 Applications of conditional
probability in real-world
scenarios
Marketing Strategies- Businesses leverage conditional probability
3 to estimate the probability of a customer purchasing a product
based on their browsing history and demographics.

Criminal Investigations- Law enforcement officials utilize

4 conditional probability to determine the likelihood of a suspect's
involvement in a crime based on evidence and witness
testimonies
 Independent Events
Independent events are events where the outcome of one event does not affect the
outcome of another. In other words, the probability of one event happening does not
change based on whether or not another event has occurred. For example, flipping a
coin twice: the outcome of the first flip (heads or tails) does not influence the outcome
of the second flip. Each flip is independent of the other.

In mathematical terms, if A and B are independent events, then:

P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B)

Where P(A) is the probability of event A occurring, and P(B) is the probability of event B
occurring. This formula holds true if and only if events A and B are independent.
Events A and B are independent if the occurrence of B does not alter the
probability A has occurred
 A QUICK EXAMPLE
If there’s a bag containing a total of 6 balls- 3 blue and 3 red
Considering the probability of selecting a ball when the balls are replaced
after every round - probability of getting a red ball is 3/6 = 1/2
in the second round the probability of getting another red ball is 3/6 = 1/2
as well.
this shows that these are independent events because occurence of one
event doesn’t affect the other.
Now, taking an example where the balls are not being replaced after every
round-here the probability of getting a red ball in first round is 3/6 = 1/2
and in the second round is 2/5. This shows that they are not independent.
 Dependent Events

The dependent variable typically refers to the outcome or event

whose probability is being assessed based on the occurrence or
knowledge of another event. For example, in the scenario of
flipping a fair coin twice, if Event A represents getting heads on
the first flip and Event B represents getting tails on the second
flip, the dependent variable would be the occurrence of Event B
(getting tails on the second flip) given that Event A (getting heads
on the first flip) has occurred. In essence, the dependent variable
in conditional probability is the event whose probability is
conditioned on the outcome or occurrence of another event.
Conclusion and Key Takeaways
conditional probability provides a powerful framework for
understanding the relationship between events when certain
conditions are known or given
Conditional probability enables us to make informed decisions, predictions,
and assessments based on available information. It allows us to adjust our
beliefs and expectations as new evidence or conditions arise.
Whether it's in everyday decision-making, statistical analysis, or scientific
research, the concept of conditional probability empowers us to navigate
uncertainty and make sound judgments in a wide range of scenarios
Thank you!
Presentation By
Agrima Chauhan
Gunika Madan
Priya
Samriddhi Sharma
Sanvi Ghai