A Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) of Results Results

Precipitation and Air Temperature Across

Nebraska using CMIP6 Global Climate
Models
Mehraj U Din Dar, Manavjot Singh, Ana Guanes, Vaishali Sharda

Introduction
Anthropogenic activities significantly contribute to large-scale changes in
weather parameters ​(Paik et al., 2020)​ which pose challenges to
agriculture production. Quality predicted future climate data is invaluable
to assess the impacts of these changes ​(Parkes et al., 2019). Predictions
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from state-of-the-art Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Six

(CMIP6) experiments employing Global Climate Models (GCMs) among
different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) have become available in
the recent past. However, the resolution of these predictions is very
coarse to make regional assessments. Downscaling of these induces
systematic biases (Wamahiu et al., 2024) which should be removed before
using these for impact assessment of climate change on agricultural and
other sectors.
Objectives
 To downscale historical and future GCM projections of daily maximum
temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature(Tmin), and rainfall from
two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs): SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5
representing mild and extreme scenarios.
 Bias-correcting projections from the statistically selected GCMs.
 Creating an ensemble of future climate projections from multiple
Global climate models for Nebraska using multi-model mean and
Random Forest techniques.
Methods Download Historical and future
projection Data from 24 GCMS
Fig.2: The bias in temperature and precipitation between the MME mean and observations
for the period 1979–2014. Bias (◦C) in the mean annual Tmax, (◦C) in the mean annual Tmin,
Bi-linear interpolation to 4 km x
4km
GCM Selection Using Kling Gupta Efficiency (KGE)
Bias Correction of Selected GCMs in Historical
and Future data using Quantile mapping
Multi-Model Ensemble Multi-Model Ensemble
(Mean)
(Random Forest (RF))
Fig.1: Observed Annual and seasonal changes in Temperature and precipitation for the
period (1979- 2014) over Nebraska
and bias (%) in the mean annual precipitation before and after bias correction.
Fig.5: Bias in the MME ensemble monthly Fig. 6:. MME mean annual average (a) Max.
mean before and after bias correction. temperature Tmax (◦C), (b) Min. temperature
Tmin (◦C), and Rainfall (mm)
• The Six GCMs selected on basis of KGE were EC Earth3-CC, EC Earth3
Veg LR, EC Earh3 Veg, EC Earth3, GFDL CM4 and GFDL ESM4.
• Fig. 2 displays the mean annual spatial biases in the historical data,
revealing that quantile mapping effectively addressed these biases.
Similarly, monthly biases are illustrated in Fig. 5.
• Fig. 3 represents the CMIP6 mean annual maximum temperature,
minimum temperature, and rainfall in terms of KGE. Bias correction
improved the prediction efficiency (light red) as compared to the raw
data from the GCMs(light green) for all variables.
• Post bias correction, Tmin, and rainfall predictions exhibit a higher
correlation with the observed values as compared to Tmax (Fig. 4).
This pattern is also evident in Fig. 3.
• Fig. 4 shows that the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) mean (black cross)
outperformed the Random Forest (RF) technique (red cross). The
future weather projections (2014-2099) for both SSP2-4.5 (blue) and
SSP5-8.5 (red) show warming trends as evident from Fig.
Discussion
The combination of bilinear interpolation followed by quantile mapping
technique significantly enhanced the predictability of Tmax and Tmin as
well as rainfall by effectively mitigating biases present in the GCM
projections. Our results indicate that the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) of
the six selected GCMs outperformed individual models, and the mean
MME showed superior performance compared to the MME by Random
Forest technique. These findings suggest an anticipated increase in
temperature and rainfall across Nebraska. The outcomes of this study
hold significant implications for climate impact assessment and long-term
adaptation planning efforts throughout the state.

References
Paik, S., Min, S., Zhang, X., Donat, M. G., King, A. D., & Sun, Q. (2020). Determining the Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Contribution to
(Random the Observed Intensification of Extreme Precipitation. Geophysical Research Letters, 47(12).
Forest) Or https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086875
Parkes, B., Higginbottom, T. P., Hufkens, K., Ceballos, F., Kramer, B., & Foster, T. (2019). Weather dataset choice introduces uncertainty
(Mean)? to estimates of crop yield responses to climate variability and change. Environmental Research Letters, 14(12), 124089.
Fig.3: Radar plots showing KGE before and Fig.4: Correlation between mean MME, RF https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/AB5EBB
after bias correction of the selected GCMs MME, before and after bias correction for Wamahiu, K., Kala, J., & Evans, J. P. (2024). The influence of bias correction of global climate models prior to dynamical downscaling on
for Tmax (°C), Tmin(°C), and rainfall (mm) Tmax(°C) , Tmin (°C) and Rainfall (mm) projections of changes in climate: a case study over the CORDEX-Australasia domain. Climate Dynamics, 62(2), 1219–1231.
Future projections https://doi.org/10.1007/S00382-023-06949-7/FIGURES/8
during the period 1979-2024. during the period 1979-2024
in Temperature This material is based primarily on work funded by the National Science Foundation grant OIA-
and Precip. 2119753. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed here are those of the
author(s) for this project, & do not necessarily reflect the views of NSF.