DATA KONSUMSI BATU BARA PEMAKAIAN 12 HARI DALAM

DATE Y=KONSUMSI BAHAN BAKAR (TON) Y1 (KONSTAN) Abs Err Err ^2

15 Des 2024 1456 1519 63 3911
16 Des 2024 1500 1519 19 344
17 Des 2024 1553 1519 34 1188
18 Des 2024 1570 1519 51 2648
19 Des 2024 1480 1519 39 1485
20 Des 2024 1496 1519 23 508
21 Des 2024 1482 1519 37 1335
22 Des 2024 1500 1519 19 344
23 Des 2024 1514 1519 5 21
24 Des 2024 1558 1519 39 1557
25 Des 2024 1560 1519 41 1719
26 Des 2024 1530 1519 11 131
27 Des 2024 1542 1519 23 550
28 Des 2024 1519

Rata Rata Error 31 1211

PEMAKAIAN 12 HARI DALAM DURASI 12 JAM

M.Abs.Perc Err Y2(MovAv 2) Abs Err 2 Err^2 2 M.Abs.Perc Err 2

4%
1%
2% 1478 75 5625 5%
3% 1526.5 43.5 1892.25 3%
3% 1561.5 81.5 6642.25 6%
2% 1525 29 841 2%
2% 1488 6 36 0%
1% 1489 11 121 1%
0% 1491 23 529 2%
3% 1507 51 2601 3%
3% 1536 24 576 2%
1% 1559 29 841 2%
2% 1545 3 9 0%
1536

2% Rata rata Error 34 1792 2%

 DATA PRODUKSI ENERGI PLTU TIMOR

DATE Kapasitas Beban Coal Feeder Durasi Start-Up

1-Feb-24 60 4 12
2-Feb-24 55 4 10
3-Feb-24 50 3 9
4-Feb-24 60 4 8
5-Feb-24 50 4 8
6-Feb-24 45 3 9
7-Feb-24 30 2 11
8-Feb-24 45 2 12
9-Feb-24 50 3 10
10-Feb-24 60 4 9

Model Klausal peruntukan memodelkan peramalan konsumsi bahan bakar berdasarkan faktor Kapasitas beban, Durasi Star
MOR

Konsumsi Bahan Bakar (L) Coefficients

40565 Intercept 10004.584291
35652 Kapasitas Beban -29.222283636
33241 Coal Feeder 662.15330909
30444 Durasi Start-Up 2475.2280727
31245
32334 Y = 10004,58429 + Kapasitas Beban*(-29,22228364) + Coal Feeder*662,1533091 + Du
37845
39784 Kapasitas Beban 60
35002 Coal Feeder 4
33600 Durasi Star-Up 10
Konsumsi Bahan B35652.141236

kar berdasarkan faktor Kapasitas beban, Durasi Start-Up, Jumlah Coal Feeder
Coal Feeder*662,1533091 + Durasi Start-Up*2475,228073
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.9953575573
R Square 0.9907366669
Adjusted R Square 0.9861050004
Standard Error 410.94900033
Observations 10

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 3 108372243.115 36124081.038 213.90500737 1.7327497E-06
Residual 6 1013274.48524 168879.08087
Total 9 109385517.6

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%

Intercept 10004.584291 1474.43511704 6.7853676132 0.0005011824 6396.7715293
Kapasitas Beban -29.222283636 29.803398377 -0.9805017289 0.3647044489 -102.14857233
Coal Feeder 662.15330909 370.691653957 1.7862644115 0.1242940653 -244.8964921
Durasi Start-Up 2475.2280727 112.583936029 21.985623882 5.786353E-07 2199.7451054
 Upper 95% Lower 95,0% Upper 95,0%
13612.397053 6396.7715293 13612.397053
43.704005057 -102.14857233 43.704005057
1569.2031103 -244.8964921 1569.2031103
2750.71104 2199.7451054 2750.71104