Policy Brief No.

30

POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS TO DEESCALATE TENSIONS IN ETHIOPIA

By Adane Tadesse, Southern Voices Network for Peacebuilding Scholar
January 2024

Introduction

For the last two decades, Ethiopia has been regarded as a beacon of stability in the volatile Horn of Africa.
Despite its mixed domestic record, Ethiopia under the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front
(EPRDF) emerged as a regional power and peace-builder, participating in United Nations and African Union
peacekeeping missions (Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia). It also played a crucial role in the signing of several
peace agreements. In the West’s eyes, Ethiopia was viewed as a stalwart ally of the US in the War on Terror. Since
simmering ethnic tensions exploded in 2018, however, Ethiopia has been in turmoil. A civil war between ethno-
nationalist armed groups and the Ethiopian National Defense Force has claimed more than 600,000 people lives
across Tigray, Amhara, and Afar regions [1]. IOM data shows between 2018 and 2019 around 3 million people
were displaced because of ethnic violence and conflicts. As of May 2023, according to the UNHCR, there were 3.1
Million internally displaced people in Ethiopia [2].

Key Points

• Inter-ethnic tensions in Ethiopia are fueling insecurity, mass violations of human rights, humanitarian crises,
and weakening of state capacity.
• Crises arising in Ethiopia are threatening the peace and stability of the Horn of Africa.
• Current foreign and domestic policies and interventions have not deescalated tensions.
• Sustainable peace in Ethiopia is impossible without genuine and inclusive political settlements and
reconciliation.

Regional Implications of Inter-Ethnic Tensions in Ethiopia

Ethiopia is currently embroiled in internal conflicts that are mainly driven by ethnic tensions and rivalries.
Its stabilizing role in the region is swiftly declining; eventually, a dangerous security vacuum will emerge.
The morale and capability of the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF), which was instrumental in both
peacekeeping and anti-terrorism engagements of the country, have suffered massively in recent years. Ethiopia’s
preoccupation with domestic conflicts has also created a less stable regional environment where Al-Shabab has

The Southern Voices Network for Peacebuilding: Centering African knowledge and agency is key to building and
sustaining peace in Africa. The Southern Voices Network for Peacebuilding (SVNP) works with the Wilson Center’s
Africa Program to attain the most appropriate, cohesive, and inclusive policy frameworks and approaches for achieving
sustainable peace in Africa. Generously sponsored by Carnegie Corporation of New York since its establishment in
2011, the SVNP works to generate African knowledge to inform US and international peacebuilding policies on Africa;
help build the next generation of African peacebuilders through its scholarship program; and create a pan-African
network of African peacebuilding organizations, practitioners, and experts to collaborate and share knowledge, best
practices, and lessons learned on peacebuilding in Africa.

This publication was made possible by a grant from Carnegie Corporation of New York. The statements made and
views expressed in this paper are solely the responsibility of the author and do not represent the views of the Wilson
Center or Carnegie Corporation of New York. For more information please visit:
https://www.wilsoncenter.org/the-southern-voices-network-for-peacebuilding
begun to revive and expand its reach, into Somaliland, and Eastern Ethiopia [3]. The current crisis in Ethiopia is
dragging neighboring countries into Ethiopia’s domestic security complex. Since November 2020, for instance,
Eritrea has become a key player in the Tigray war. The number of internally displaced people (IDPs) has risen
due to the intensification of the various conflicts: Ethiopia hosts more than 930,000 refugees from Sudan, South
Sudan, Somalia, and Eritrea [4], but the escalation of existing conflicts will force these refugees to flee to the
neighboring countries, particularly to Kenya and Djibouti. Lastly, given the increased interest of Russia and Gulf
countries in expanding their influence in the Horn of Africa, there is a risk that these powers could exploit the
ongoing conflict in Ethiopia to trigger domestic and regional proxy wars.

Existing Peacebuilding Interventions

Despite the grave domestic and regional implications of inter-ethnic tensions and conflicts in Ethiopia, current
peacebuilding efforts by the Government of Ethiopia (GoE) and the international actors are inadequate. The
Ethiopian National Dialogue Commission, which was established in December 2021, is still at its preparation
stage and may yet never materialize due to questions about its legitimacy. The International Commission of
Human Rights Experts on Ethiopia’ characterized the transitional justice process in Ethiopia as ‘a deeply flawed
process which fails to meet African Union and international standards’ [5].

Regional actors such as the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and the Africa Union (AU)
appear focused on appeasing the current government, whilst the United States (US) and the European Union
(EU) have emphasized sanctions, punitive measures (e.g., removing Ethiopia from Africa Growth and Opportunity
Act) and cutting-off funding streams.

Policy Recommendations
I. Local Actors
A. Government of Ethiopia
• Prioritize political settlements: The GoE should eschew military solutions to inherently political problems.
Most importantly, a political settlement between Oromo, Amhara, and Tigray elites will spare the country
from further escalation of inter-ethnic tensions. The GoE should declare a unilateral cessation of hostilities
and immediately enter into negotiations with belligerent parties in the Amhara and Oromia regions, and, as
a sign of goodwill, release political prisoners, journalists, and arbitrarily arrested civilians.

• Promote inter-ethnic solidarity: Ethnic hatred and calls for genocide and ethnic cleansing have been
mainstreamed in present-day Ethiopia. The GoE must, therefore, initiate a grass-roots reversal of this
phenomenon, beginning with school curricula which relentlessly promotes multiculturalism and inter-
ethnic solidarity, but also covering media and public discourse in general. Laws that prohibit promoting
ethnic division and hatred should also be enacted, with a long-term view of amending the constitution to
de-ethnicise the formal political and administrative structure of the state.

• Re-imagine the National Dialogue Commission and Transitional Justice Process: The GoE should collaborate
with the civil society, opposition, and international actors in revitalizing the ongoing efforts to promote
‘truth and reconciliation’ schemes. The GoE and the incumbent party (Prosperity Party) must also ensure that
these processes are genuine, inclusive, and transparent.

B. Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) and Inter-religious council

• Foster Inter-communal Conversations: Given the sacred value that religion holds in Ethiopian society,
religious institutions must be folded into the peacebuilding process. CSOs should play an important role
in building the capacity of inter-religious councils and mobilize financial resources from the international
community. CSOs should also collaborate in organizing a national conference for all religious organizations
to deliberate the road map that guides the peacebuilding roles of inter-religious councils.

• Promote Women and Youth-centered peacebuilding initiatives: Given that these two groups are both

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 disproportionately affected by inter-ethnic tensions and (largely) neglected in existing peace-building
initiatives, CSO need to urgently redress the balance, technically and financially support existing women and
youth-centered peacebuilding initiatives and strive to expand similar initiatives.

II. Regional and International actors

A. Regional Actors
• Prioritize de-escalation of hostilities: The African Union (AU) and Intergovernmental Authority on
Development (IGAD) should move away from appeasing the GoE and establish a joint ad-hoc committee
comprising influential political figures. The Committee shall exert diplomatic and political pressure on the
GoE to commit itself to a political settlement and the signing of a comprehensive peace agreement with
major armed ethno-nationalist forces.

• Ensure positive engagement of neighboring countries and Initiate regional peace forums: The African Union
and Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) should consistently denounce the involvement of
neighboring countries in the internal affairs of Ethiopia and push for the withdrawal of Eritrean troops. These
two actors should also introduce arrangements that foster positive engagements of neighboring states in
defusing inter-ethnic tensions in Ethiopia. To this end, IGAD should organize a regional peace forum that
addresses regional implications of the current security crisis in Ethiopia and Sudan, including the need to
halt the revival of Al-Shabab in the region. Considering the financial and technical gaps that IGAD faces, the
African Union and the International Community must step-up financially.

B. International Community
• Prioritize the protection of civilians: Currently, both the GoE and ethno-nationalist armed groups are
reluctant to observe basic human rights provisions, with disastrous consequences for affected populations.
Both regional and international actors need to engage with the GoE and other non-state actors to ensure
that civilians are protected from ethnic cleansing, harassment, extrajudicial killings, sexual violence, and
genocide.

• Support grass-roots peacebuilding initiatives: Existing peace-building efforts of the international

community are concentrated on supporting government-led initiatives. However, given the magnitude and
scope of inter-ethnic tensions, the international community should also expand its support to grassroots
peacebuilding initiatives. In this regard, giving financial and technical support to local and international
NGOs, Youth and Women associations, and higher education institutions will have a significant impact on
community-based peace-building engagements.

• Facilitate the political settlement process: Given the rivalries and mistrust between ethno-nationalist elites,
impartial engagement of the international community could play a central role in ending the ongoing
conflicts and foster trust among the competing elites. Given the success of the US and the African Union
in the signing of the Pretoria Agreement, they should play a similar role in ending the ongoing conflicts
in Oromia and Amhara region by putting pressure on the Federal government to cease combative
engagements and initiate negotiation with the Oromo Liberation Army and the Fano in the shortest time
possible. Equally, it is vital to arrange a close-door dialogue and negotiation within the incumbent party
focusing on Amhara and Oromo elites. Similar efforts should also be made to initiate rapprochement
conversations and negotiations between the Amhara and Tigray elites.

• Defuse division in the Ethiopian diaspora through dialogue conferences: Globally, there are approximately
3 million Ethiopians in the diaspora [6]. Inter-ethnic tensions among them is preventing their potential
contribution to building peace back home. The international community – mainly the US and European
countries – should not allow the fomentation of hatreds within Ethiopian communities residing within their
cities, but instead promote their diaspora communities as nodes of peace and unity.

1. https://www.ft.com/content/2f385e95-0899-403a-9e3b-ed8c24adf4e7

2. https://www.unrefugees.org/emergencies/ethiopia/

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3. https://www.voanews.com/a/why-did-al-shabab-attack-inside-ethiopia/6674783.html

4. https://www.unrefugees.org/emergencies/ethiopia/

5. https://www.ohchr.org/en/statements-and-speeches/2023/09/statement-chairperson-and-members-un-international-commission-
human

6. https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/27095403.pdf?refreqid=fastly-default%3A1a094c26c0ab8c2162779d8e6417967d&ab_
segments=&origin=&initiator=&acceptTC=1

Mr. Adane Tadessee is a PhD candidate in Political Science at Addis Ababa University in Ethiopia. Since 2012, he
has been a lecturer and researcher in Political Science at Debre Markos University and Addis Ababa University.
Previously Adane was a Guest Ph.D. Researcher fellow at the Danish Institute for International Studies and
Roskilde University in Denmark. Adane is also an alumnus of the Young African Leaders Initiative (YALI). Parallel
to his academic engagements, Adane has served as Director of the International Relations Office at Addis Ababa
Science and Technology University. His area of research interests includes peacebuilding, political settlement,
foreign policy, governance, and environmental politics in Africa. Currently, Mr. Adane was a Southern Voices
Network for Peacebuilding Scholar for the Fall 2023 term in Washington, DC.

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