Scenario analysis

STAGE 1

Using the method of scenarios of ambient conditions, a macroeconomic analysis should be

performed for the selected enterprise. The following steps are described below:

 (1) The identification of macroenvironmental factors having the strongest impact on

the enterprise (regulatory and legal, economic, social, demographic, and technological
factors, etc.).
 (2) The determination of the strength of influence of the individual spheres.
 (3) The determination of the probability of occurrence of a given trend (the sum of the
probability of occurrence of growth, stabilization and regression for a given trend must
be 1).

Factors / spheres in the environment Trend The strength of Probability

influence <0;1>
(od -5 do +5)
Sphere 1 (Economic Factors)
Growth rate Growth +4 0,7
Stabilization -3 0,2
Regression -2 0,1
Stock market trends Growth +5 0,8
Stabilization +4 0,1
Regression +4 0,1
Price fluctuations Growth +3 0,5
Stabilization +3 0,4
Regression -2 0,1
Inflation rate Growth +2 0,6
Stabilization +2 0,2
Regression -5 0,2
Interest rate Growth -2 0,5
Stabilization +2 0,4
Regression -3 0,1
Sphere 2 (Technological factors)
Level of innovation Growth 5 0,5
Stabilization +5 0,4
Regression 1 0,1
R&D activity Growth +4 0,4
Stabilization 4 0,4
Regression -2 0,2
Access to new technology Growth +5 0,5
Stabilization 5 0,4
Regression -2 0,1
Licensing Growth 3 0,3
Stabilization +2 0,5
Regression 1 0,2
Growth
 Stabilization
Regresion

Factors / spheres in the environment Trend The strength of Probability

influence <0;1>
(od -5 do +5)

Sphere 3 (Social factors)

Social classes Growth 4 0,6

Stabilization -3 0,3
Regression -2 0,1
Buying habits Growth 5 0,7
Stabilization +3 0,2
Regression 4 0,1
Age distribution Growth 2 0,2
Stabilization +4 0,6
Regression 1 0,2
Attitudes towards product quality Growth 5 0,6
Stabilization 4 0,3
Regression -3 0,1
Growth
Stabilization
Regression

Sphere 4 (Legal factors)

Consumer protection laws Growth 5 0,7

Stabilization 5 0,2
Regression -4 0,1
Data protection laws Growth +5 0,7
Stabilization 5 0,2
Regression 1 0,1
Health and safety laws Growth +3 0,5
Stabilization +4 0,4
Regression -3 0,1
Employment laws Growth +4 0,4
Stabilization +4 0,4
Regression -3 0,2
Growth
Stabilization
Regression

Factors / spheres in the environment Trend The strength of Probability

influence <0;1>
(od -5 do +5)

Sphere 5 ( Environmental factors)

Recycling standards Growth 4 0,5

Stabilization 3 0,3
 Regression -3 0,2
Attitudes towards green products Growth 2 0,4
Stabilization 2 0,4
Regression -2 0,2
Growth
Stabilization
Regression
Growth
Stabilization
Regression
Growth
Stabilization
Regression

Sphere …

Growth
Stabilization
Regression
Growth
Stabilization
Regression
Growth
Stabilization
Regression
Growth
Stabilization
Regression
Growth
Stabilization
Regression
regres