J. For. Res.
(2016) 27(3):595–603
DOI 10.1007/s11676-015-0185-y
ORIGINAL PAPER
Autoregressive spatial analysis and individual tree modeling
as strategies for the management of Eremanthus erythropappus
Henrique Ferraço Scolforo1 • José Roberto Soares Scolforo1 • José Marcio de Mello1
Antônio Carlos Ferraz Filho1 • Diogo Francisco Rossoni2 • Thiza Falqueto Altoé1 •
Antônio Donizette Oliveira1 • Renato Ribeiro de Lima3
Received: 15 May 2014 / Accepted: 15 September 2014 / Published online: 8 December 2015
 Northeast Forestry University and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015
Abstract The objectives of this study were to apply
statistical techniques to discriminate fertilization treat-
ments of Eremanthus erythropappus (DC.) MacLeish.
through autoregressive modeling, and to develop individual
tree models for diameter and crown area (CA) projection to
define management strategies for candeia plantations sub-
jected to different fertilization treatments. This is an
important tree species originating from the Brazilian
Atlantic Rain forest and Savannah biomes, intensively used
in the cosmetic industry. Nonetheless, to date, research has
not addressed the management of natural stands or plan-
tations of the species. Our experiment was located in
Baependi, Minas Gerais, Brazil, and comprised of four
randomized blocks and 13 treatments. The treatments
Project funding: This work was supported by the Coordenação de
Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nı́vel Superior (CAPES), the
Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cientı́fico e Tecnológico
(CNPq), the Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Minas
Gerais (FAPEMIG), the Instituto Estadual de Florestas (IEF), the
Instituto Brasileiro do Meio Ambiente e dos Recursos Naturais
Renováveis (IBAMA), Ministério do Meio Ambiente (MMA) and
Citróleo.
The online version is available at http://www.springerlink.com
Corresponding editor: Chai Ruihai
& José Roberto Soares Scolforo
jscolforo@dcf.ufla.br
1
Department of Forest Science, Federal University of Lavras,
PO Box: 3037, Lavras, MG 37200-000, Brazil
2 antimycotic (Tabanca et al. 2007), dermatological, and
Department of Statistics, State University of Maringá, Av.
Colombo 5.790, Jd. Universitário, Bloco E90, Maringá,
PR 87020-900, Brazil
3
Department of Statistics, Federal University of Lavras,
PO Box: 3037, Lavras, MG 37200-000, Brazil
•
consisted of 12 different regimes of fertilization plus a
control. Each sample plot was composed of 50 plants plus
two border plants in a planting spacing of 2.5 9 2.0 m and
undergoing pruning at 5 and 6 years of age. Starting in the
second year, total tree height (H) and circumference (at
1.30 m from the ground or breast height, CBH) were
measured every 6 months. Starting in the fifth year CA was
measured. Tree growth varied by fertilization strategy.
Differences were detected by using an autoregressive
approach, considering that standard statistical methods
were not powerful enough to detect significant differences.
Three growth groups were formed, and maximum growth
was obtained for treatment 10 (NPK, 8-28-16). Manage-
ment guidelines are provided based on individual tree
models for different fertilization levels.
Keywords Management strategies  Candeia 
Fertilization level  Brazil  Crown area
Introduction
Candeia, Eremanthus erythropappus (DC.) MacLeish,
belonging to the Asteraceae family, is an endemic tree
species from the Brazilian Atlantic Rain Forest and
Savannah Biomes (Loeuille 2013). This is a multiple-use
species whose wood yields essential oils of which the main
component and active component is alpha-bisabolol (Silva
et al. 2008; Scolforo et al. 2008a, 2012). This component
displays antiphlogistic (Kim et al. 2011), antibacterial,
anti-spasmodic properties and is utilized for the manufac-
ture of medications and cosmetics such as creams, tanning
lotions, sunscreens, and medication vehicles in addition to
its applications as a prophylaxis and skin care for babies
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and adults. The wood is also used for fence posts due to its
high natural durability (Oliveira et al. 2009).
Historically, the exploitation of candeia wood was
characterized by predatory practices in the absence of
forest management regulations. Following national level
awareness of these facts (FAO 2002), management systems
are under consolidation for areas of natural occurrence of
the species as well as for pure or mixed plantations, aiming
to organize the commercialization of candeia products
(Scolforo et al. 2008b).
Plant essential oil production is related to genetic factors
as well as plant/environment interaction (Gobbo Neto and
Lopes 2007). Studies of candeia are needed to better
understand the effects of environmental variables and sil-
vicultural practices on production of essential oils and plant
biomass.
The management system being developed for candeia
includes pure and mixed plantations intended for com-
mercial use. Various fertilization, spacing, thinning, prun-
ing, and genetic improvement experiments require in-depth
analysis to generate information on the utilization of this
species as an economic resource for high-elevation areas
and barren soils in tropical countries.
The use of novel statistical techniques in the analysis of
candeia experiments is desirable, since growth variation
between trees is high due to the unimproved genetic material
used as well as the long duration of the experiments.
Statistical analysis of field experiments commonly
employs classical analysis of variance, in which one of the
basic assumptions is the spatial independence of error
provided by randomization of study plots (Banzatto and
Kronka 2006). However, Stroup et al. (1994) claim that
classical analysis of variance does not adequately address
the spatial variability in most experiments, especially those
with high numbers of treatments and those with high
variability in tree diametric growth. This results in loss of
statistical precision (Casanoves et al. 2005). Approaches
that consider the spatial dependency structure in analysis of
variance are desirable in the evaluation of experiments.
Statistical developments in the field of spatial modelling
have resulted in a number of different approaches for
modelling spatial dependence such as spatial interaction
models (with the variants moving average model and the
spatial error model that use a spatial autoregressive (SAR)
process in the error term), geostatistical models, and
nearest neighbor methods (Fox et al. 2001).
Management of candeia plantations subjected to differ-
ent levels of fertilization can be better understood using
individual tree models, in this case establishing the corre-
lation between the crown area (CA) and the diameter
measured at 1.30 m from the ground (diameter at breast
height, DBH). A high correlation often suggests that this
model may be used in estimating the number of trees with a
123
H. F. Scolforo et al.
projected diameter, as well as in the design of forest
management strategies (Nutto et al. 2006).
The objectives of this study were to apply statistical
techniques to discriminate fertilization treatments in Ere-
manthus erythropappus using the spatial component in
autoregressive modeling (ARM) and to develop individual
tree models through projection of DBH and CA that could
be used in candeia management strategies that are often
subjected to different fertilization regimes.
Materials and methods
Description of the study site
The experiment site is located at the UTM coordinates
524,798; 7,569,810, in the municipality of Baependi,
Minas Gerais State, Brazil, which, according to Köppen’s
classification, has a Cwb (highland tropical) climate with
dry winters, and hot and humid summers. The yearly
average temperature ranges from 18 to 19 C and the
rainfall average is 1400 mm, with the greatest amount of
rainfall occurring between December and March. The
months of June, July, and August are relatively dry.
The experiment begun in December 2004 in a ran-
domized complete block design (RCBD, 4 blocks) divided
into 13 treatments (Table 1). Each sample plot of 520 m2
consisted of 50 measured plants and two buffer trees.
Pruning was performed when the trees had 5 and 6 years
old. The spacing between plants was 2.0 9 2.5 m, and the
measurements were conducted at 6-month intervals.
Starting in the second year, circumference was measured at
1.30 m from the ground (circumference at breast height,
CBH), which was transformed to diameter (DBH) for data
analysis, and total tree height (H) were recorded. After the
fifth year, at one-year intervals, the projection of the crown
at 8 fixed angle radii was also recorded in addition to CBH
and H because it presents a superior estimate of the vari-
able in relation to the 4 fixed radius method (Weber 2007).
Even though our data collection included measurements
over time and space, this paper deals only with the effects
of the former on the analysis of variance.
Autoregressive modeling
Individuals that are closer to each other tend to be more
similar than distant individuals, intuitively defining the
concept of spatial variability. Spatial variability refers to
the tendency of the responses of the factors analyzed (such
as forest growth) in relation to the spatial arrangement of
the sample plots (Mercer and Hall 1911).
The randomized complete block design is considered
effective when the interior of each block is as homogeneous
Autoregressive spatial analysis and individual tree modeling as strategies for the management… 597

Table 1 Fertilizer treatments used in this study

Treatments Amount per pit (g)
Ca N P K Micro Organic NPK NPK Plaster

1. Control – – – – – – – – –
2. Limestone ? NPK ? micronutrients 200 100 200 50 0.5 – – – –
3. Limestone ?PK ? micronutrients 200 – 200 50 0.5 – – – –
4. Limestone ?NK ? micronutrients 200 100 – 50 0.5 – – – –
5. Limestone ? NP ? micronutrients 200 100 – 50 0.5 – – – –
6. Limestone ? NPK 200 100 200 50 0.5 – – – –
7. NPK ? micronutrients – 100 200 50 0.5 – – – –
8. Limestone ? NPK ? micronutrients ? organic fertilization 200 100 200 50 0.5 10 – – –
9. Organic fertilization – – – – – 10 – – –
10. Fertilizer formulation NPK 8-28-16 ? Zn-0.4 % ? B-0.1 % – – – – – – 150 – –
11. Limestone ? plaster ? NPK ? micronutrients 200 100 200 50 0.5 – – – 100
12. Limestone ? plaster ? NPK ? micronutrients 200 100 300 50 0.5 – – – 100
13. Limestone ? fertilizer formulation NPK 6-30-6 ? micronutrients 200 – – – 0.5 – – 100 –
The elements applied to the specific treatments were as follows: N is the ammonium sulfate in grams per pit; P is the simple superphosphate in
grams per pit; K is the potassium chloride in grams per pit; Ca is the limestone in grams per pit; Plaster is in grams per pit, Micronutrients is in
grams per pit; Organic is the organic fertilizer litters per pit; fertilizer formulation NPK (8-28-16) is in grams per pit; and fertilizer formulation
NPK (6-30-6) is in grams per pit. Treatment 12 consisted of P = 100 g of simple superphosphate plus ? 200 g of reactive phosphorus per pit.
The micronutrients were composed of the following: Zn (9.0 %) ? B (1.8 %) ? Cu (0.8 %) ? Fe (3.0 %) ? Mn (2.0 %) ? Mo (0.1 %)

as possible and the variation between blocks represents the
variability tested in the field, i.e., variability between
treatments.
However, forestry experiments are usually installed in
large blocks, caused both by the need for replication of the
individuals within the sample plot and by the area that each
individual occupies. As block size becomes larger, it
becomes harder to maintain the desired homogeneity
within the blocks, due to factors such as soil heterogeneity,
competition between individuals, and pest attack (Kempton
and Lockwood 1984; Smith et al. 2001).
Because of potential spatial variability between and
among blocks, classical analysis of variance might not
yield the most representative results (Casanoves et al.
2005). In addition, there are situations in which standard
ANOVA does not sufficiently discriminate differences
among treatments. This can occur when there is high
variability among sample plots when the species studied is
in a wild stage (e.g. no genetic improvement). There are
many examples of statistical procedures that consider the
existence of spatial structure in field experiments, including
Papadakis (1937), Mead (1971), Grondona and Cressie
(1991), Grondona et al. (1996), and Gumpertz et al. (1997).
An alternative investigated in these cases involves the
incorporation of a new experimental modeling component,
which is aimed at increasing the discriminatory capability
of the F test. ARM was used in this study to describe the
spatial variation in the response vector, which in this case,
was the variable DBH. However, before conducting
ANOVA using the autoregressive approach (ANOVA–
ARM), we needed to determine the proximity pattern that
would be adopted.
ANOVA–ARM was described by Long (1996, 1998)
and its basic premise consisted of transforming autocorre-
lated observations into non-correlated observations. In
other words, after detecting spatial continuity in the vari-
able of interest, ANOVA–ARM removes this correlation
and renders the data independent in relation to space,
thereby permitting adequate statistical inference.
The proximity pattern was proposed by Gumpertz et al.
(1997) to define the neighboring region. In this study, this
may be defined as the plots covered by a radius starting at
the source plot (reference), and the proximity pattern was
based on the radius that was centered in this reference plot
(Rossoni 2011).
The proximity pattern to be adopted was the one
yielding the highest correlation [q (h)], the lowest value
in the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), and nor-
mality of the residuals in the Shapiro–Wilk test (at 95 %
confidence). Upon confirmation of these 3 requirements,
the proximity pattern was adopted in relation to the
radius.
The SAR model can be described using the equation
proposed by Griffith (1988): Y ¼ qWY þ b0 þ Xb þ e,
where Y is a vector n 9 1 of the observed values; q is an
autoregressive spatial parameter; W is a matrix n 9 n with
weight assignments for the spatial neighborhood; b0 is the
overall mean; X is a matrix n 9 p for the incidence of the
fixed effects; b is a vector p 9 1 of the parameters; and e is
a vector n 9 1 of the errors inherent to each observation.

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Matrix W was obtained through the multiplication of 2
other matrices, D and C, as follows: (W = D 9 C). Matrix
C with dimensions n 9 n is binary and describes the
neighborhood of experimental plots. Matrix D is a diagonal
matrix with the element 1/ki, in which ki is the sum of the
values of line i of matrix C.
One method of estimating parameter q of the SAR
model is a maximum likelihood (ML) approach. The
original solution for the estimation by ML of an autore-
gressive spatial model was initially proposed by Ord (1975
in Rossoni 2011).
The procedure consists of exploring the Jacobian
decomposition jI  qW j in terms of eigenvalues xi (with
i = 1, 2,…, N) of matrix W, as shown in the expression
Q
n
jI  qW j ¼ ð1  qx1 Þ.
i¼1
After estimating q,^ the next step consists in the sub-
traction of the spatial operators qWY
^ and qb
^ 0 from the
individual values of the treatments to remove the auto-
correlation from the information by using the following
expression: Yadj ¼ Y  ðqWY  qb0 Þ. The objective of Yadj
is to remove spatial variability by weighting the observa-
tions in the same proximity. This is done through the
parameter q,^ which weighs the neighborhood (W) and the
response variable Y, as well as weighing any possible
disruptions in the mean b0. When q^ is equal to zero no
spatial structure exists and the results for the ANOVA
ARM and standard ANOVA are identical. Thus, Yadj is the
DBH data adjusted for spatial correlation, permitting
appropriate statistical inference.
Subsequent to obtaining the vector Yadj, generation of
the ANOVA–ARM was performed (Table 2). The cor-
rected total sum of squares (CTSS) was obtained as the
difference between the total sum of squares (SST) in the
analysis of variance of the unadjusted data and the adjusted
total sum of squares (SSTadj) in the analysis of variance
with the data adjusted by the following expression:
CTSS = SST - SSTadj.
The response vector of the statistical model used in this
study takes into consideration the spatial dependence and
thus reduces within-block variability (by reducing the
block mean sum of squares), as well as providing greater
accuracy by reducing total variability of the experiment by
reducing the error mean sum of squares. Yang and Juskiw
(2011) reported that in RCBD, proper blocking can reduce
Table 2 Analysis of variance
Source of Variation DF
of the autoregressive model
(ANOVA–ARM) Block n-1
Parameter k–1
Residual (n - 1)(k – 1)
Corrected Total nk – 1
123
H. F. Scolforo et al.
error by maximizing the difference between blocks and
maintaining the plot-to-plot homogeneity within blocks,
but blocking is ineffective if heterogeneity between plots
does not follow a definite pattern (e.g., spotty soil hetero-
geneity; unpredictable pest incidence after blocking). In
addition, when block size is large, intra-block hetero-
geneity is inevitable.
This potentially reduces the error associated with each
observation, which assumed the form presented in the
following expression:
yðadjustedÞijk ¼ l þ ti þ bj þ eijk ; where eijk  Nð0; r2 Þ
where y(adjusted)ijk is the DBH of treatment i in block j of
repetition k; l is the overall mean of the experiment; ti is
the effect of treatment i; bj is the effect of block j; eijk is the
error associated with each observation.
After completion of ANOVA–ARM and having deter-
mined the significance among treatments, the mean tests
employ standard methods that can separate the treatments
based on performance (DBH growth). Tukey’s comparison
test at a significance level of 5 % was applied to separate
the treatments into growth groups based on DBH.
Crown and DBH modeling
Crown coverage area was calculated by adding the area of
the 8 triangles formed by the 8 radii measured for each tree
in each evaluation (Fig. 1).
CA of each tree was calculated using the expression,
CA ¼ ½ðx1 x2 ÞsinðyÞþ½ðx2 x3 ÞsinðyÞ
2
þ...þ½ðx8 x1 ÞsinðyÞ
, in which
CA is the area of the polygon representing the crown
projection; xi is the length of the different radii; and y is the
45 fixed angle formed between two sequential radii.
According to Assmann (1970), the value that defines the
timing of intervention to prevent crown competition is
equivalent to 78 % of CA. When the sum of the crown
coverage area reaches this value, this is an indication of the
beginning of crown overlap and resulting growth compe-
tition among plants.
CA was related to DBH using the following models:
parabolic, according to Nutto (2001), CA ¼ ðb0
þb1 DBH þ b2 DBH 2 Þ2 (1); monomolecular, CA ¼
 
b0 1  expðb1 DBHÞ (2); and linear, according to Wachtel
(1990), CA ¼ b0 þ b1 DBH (3).
SS MS F0
SSPadj MSPadj MSPadj/MSEadj
SSEadj MSEadj
CTSS
Autoregressive spatial analysis and individual tree modeling as strategies for the management… 599

so on successively for as many similar growth groups. In

this model, b1 is the common form, and b2 and b3 represent
the different levels.

Results and discussion

Growth groups definition

ANOVA using the autoregressive approach

No significant differences among the treatments were

observed using standard ANOVA (Table 3) due to the high
variability of the data. Groups were thus identified using
the ARM approach.
Fig. 1 Measurement of the crown projection at eight fixed-angle
radii, with the first radius always pointing toward the North Table 4 shows that the second-order proximity pattern
defined by a radius of 20 meters complied with all three
basic requirements for the ARM, which was established as
For modeling, CA was considered for the pits but not for the proximity pattern adopted for the processing of the
individual stems using the equivalent diameter of each ANOVA–ARM. This radius showed the highest q (h), the
plant calculated using multiple stems. The equivalent lowest AIC value, and normality of the residuals in the
diameter is the square root of the squared sums of the Shapiro–Wilk test.
multiple stem diameters. Based on the definition of the best The ANOVA–ARM resulted from the processing con-
model, the definition of alternatives for management was ducted based on the second-order proximity pattern and
then conducted under different conditions according to the identified significant differences among treatments
projected DBH. (Table 5).
Two hypotheses were considered for this modeling. The By using an autoregressive approach, it was possible to
first hypothesis is that DBH is linearly related to crown verify that at least 1 treatment was different from the others
dimension. The second hypothesis is that the existence of a (Fc C 0.0458). Based on these results and subsequent to
limiting factor for the diametric increment was related to the application of Tukey’s test, two distinct groups were
the area’s productivity. In this study, the level of fertil- identified: the control treatment (without any fertilization)
ization limited productivity, that is, the fertilization applied and treatment 10 (Fertilizer formulation NPK 8-28-16).
to the treatment resulted in varying DBH growth. There- Additionally, a third or intermediary group was formed by
fore, we have MA ¼ f ðNIÞ, where MA is the mean DBH the remaining treatments, which were statistically similar
increment and NI is defined as the fertilization level to treatment 10 and treatment 1 (Table 6).
(treatment group with similar growth), which is determined
by conducting the mean test as well as with the application Use of dummy variables
of a dummy-variables modeling approach.
Since the definitions of the management alternatives The means test identified treatment growth groups. To
using CA are dependent on DBH data, these data were also project DBH in relation to time and to evaluate the validity
projected in time. This was performed using dummy of this interpretation based on the three identified groups,
variables to discriminate different diameter growth groups dummy variables were utilized in the analysis (Fig. 2). The
(defined using a means test). This also served to confirm
the trend of the mean test or to generate further details of
the results in case of ambiguity. Table 3 Standard ANOVA for the DBH variable among the fertil-
To project and test the hypothesis that the groups ization treatments
(treatments with similar DBH growth) provide regressions Source of variation DF SS MS F0 P value
that differ in level but not in form, the model used was as
Block 3 43.6660 14.5553 45.38 0.0000*
follows: Y = b1X1 ? b2X2 ? b3X3, where X1 is the
Treatment 12 7.0840 0.5903 1.84 0.0782
dummy variable, defined as equal for all the observations;
Error 36 11.5469 0.320747
X2 is the dummy variable, defined as that applied to the
Total 51 62.2969
second DBH growth group; X3 is the dummy variable,
defined as that applied to the third DBH growth group, and * Significant by the F test

123
600 H. F. Scolforo et al.

Table 4 Estimates of q (h), AIC, and Shapiro–Wilk test for the 7

proximity patterns
6
Radius (m) q (h) AIC Shapiro
5

DBH (cm)
10 0.575 106.003 0.531 4
20 0.687 105.641 0.883
3
30 0.655 108.502 0.934
40 0.669 108.490 0.873 2
50 0.620 110.905 0.823 1
60 0.618 113.577 0.726
0
70 0.571 117.917 0.808 0 2 4 6 8 10
80 0.510 119.799 0.789 Age (years)
90 0.634 118.843 0.913
Control level Intermediary level Best level

Fig. 2 Distinction of the three limiting growth groups

Table 5 ANOVA–ARM for the DBH variable among the fertiliza-
tion treatments
Source of variation DF SS MS F0 P-Value the equation: DBH = 0.64734X1 ? 0.37908X2 ? 1.02524
X3, in which: X1 is the age of the stand in years; X2 is the
Block 3 4.4418 1.4806 4.89 0.0060* dummy variable for the group defined as the intermediary
Treatment 12 7.5284 0.6274 2.07 0.0458* fertilizer level; and X3 is the dummy variable for the group
Error 36 10.9075 0.3030 defined as the best fertilizer level.
Corrected total 51 87.6402 To analyze growth in height (H) we used the same
* Significant by the F test procedure adopted for analysis of DBH. Standard ANOVA
was ineffective in identifying differences among
treatments.
Table 6 Tukey’s mean test for the DBH variable at a 5 % signifi- For ANOVA–ARM the second-order proximity pattern
cance level, where same letters in the test results indicate statistically
similar means according to radius 20 meters was determined. This prox-
imity pattern complied with all 3 basic requirements for
Treatment DBH Test Treatment DBH Test
ARM. Unlike the DBH variable, this approach did not
(cm) result (cm) result
detect any differences among treatments for tree height
1 4.37 A 13 5.38 AB using the F test through the spatial statistical method. Thus,
5 4.91 AB 7 5.39 AB the projection of this variable in relation to age was con-
3 4.94 AB 6 5.41 AB ducted for all treatments using the linear equation:
4 4.98 AB 9 5.53 AB H = 1.96633 ? 0.23205X1.
12 5.07 AB 2 5.56 AB
11 5.25 AB 10 5.99 B Modeling of CA
8 5.37 AB
To select which model best estimated CA we used the
distribution of residuals (Figs. 3, 4, 5) and the standard
same logic was presented by Schneider and Tonini (2003), error values of the residuals [Syx (m)] in Table 8. The
who used dummy variables to verify differences in volume linear model yielded the lowest mean error for the 3 groups
growth for the forest species Acacia mearnsii according to of limiting growth factors.
location. The parabolic model proposed by Nutto (2001), used in
The results of the analysis showed that the intermediary a study of Araucaria angustifolia in southern Brazil, and
group did indeed exist, considering that the F test was the monomolecular model highly underestimated CA for
significant; that is, the groups presented the same form, yet the larger DBH values. Neither model captured the growth
with different growth levels (Table 7). trend coherently, considering the control group as well as
Based on these procedures, treatment 10 (fertilizer for- the intermediary level. At the optimum fertilization level,
mulation NPK 8-28-16) yielded maximum DBH growth. all models underestimated these values. The parabolic
The other 11 treatments yielded intermediate growth, and model, due to its mathematical form, predicted decreasing
treatment 1 (control) yielded minimum DBH growth. CA with increasing DBH for the highest DBH values of the
Diameter growth at different ages can be predicted using control group. This compromised projections for older tree

123
Autoregressive spatial analysis and individual tree modeling as strategies for the management… 601

Table 7 Analysis of variance

Source of variation DF SS MS F0 P-Value R2
by using dummy variables
Model 3 58,539.00 19,513.00 6688 0.00 0.85
Error 3498 10,211.00 3.00
Total 3501 68,750.00

6 9
8
5
7
4
6
CA (m²)

CA (m²)
3 5
4
2
3
1
2
0 1
0 2 4 6 8 10 0
DBH (cm) 0 5 10 15
CA (m²) Parabolic DBH (cm)

Linear Monomolecular CA (m²) Parabolic

Linear Monomolecular
Fig. 3 CA projection in relation to DBH for the control group
Fig. 5 CA projection in relation to DBH for the best fertilization
level
9
8 Table 8 Standard error values of the estimation [Syx (m)] for the
7 three models in the different groups of limiting growth factors
6 Model Control Intermediary Best
CA (m²)

5
Parabolic 0.53 0.68 0.66
4
Linear 0.52 0.68 0.66
3
Monomolecular 0.52 0.69 0.67
2
1
0 Table 9 Correlation between CA and DBH for the different groups
0 5 10 15
Groups Correlation
DBH (cm)
CA (m²) Parabolic Control 0.82
Intermediary level 0.78
Linear Monomolecular
Best level 0.86
Fig. 4 CA projection in relation to DBH for the intermediary
fertilization level
phases, a linear relationship between CA and DBH, as
shown in Table 9. This statement can be verified by
ages when DBH would be expected to be larger. This could observing the high correlation coefficient obtained in the
negatively impact growth estimates for candeia when this positive signals of parameters b0 and b1. In this case, a
model is used to generate projections beyond the maximum positive correlation was observed between DBH and CA.
age of the database. When assessing parameter b1, which is responsible for the
In light of our analyses we selected the linear model, inclination of the growth equation, we verified that it is
which was also successfully used by Wachtel (1990) for indeed higher for the treatment at the optimum fertilization
Araucaria angustifolia in southern Brazil. We believed that level.
native species with no genetic improvement and with slow The linear models used to calculate CA for the control,
growth show, at least during the maturity and establishment intermediate fertilization level and optimum fertilization

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602 H. F. Scolforo et al.

Table 10 Maximum number of

Age Control Intermediary level Best level
individuals per hectare (N/ha)
with DBH (cm) and H DBH H CA N/ha DBH H CA N/ha DBH H CA N/ha
(m) projected for different ages,
estimated with the CA model 1 0.7 2.2 0.50 15,600 1.0 2.2 0.86 9070 1.7 2.2 1.11 7027
(canopy coverage 2 1.3 2.4 0.78 10,000 1.7 2.4 1.14 6842 2.3 2.4 1.41 5532
factor = 0.78)
3 1.9 2.7 1.06 7358 2.3 2.7 1.42 5493 3.0 2.7 1.71 4561
4 2.6 2.9 1.34 5821 3.0 2.9 1.69 4615 3.6 2.9 2.00 3900
5 3.2 3.1 1.61 4845 3.6 3.1 1.97 3959 4.3 3.1 2.30 3391
6 3.9 3.4 1.89 4127 4.3 3.4 2.25 3467 4.9 3.4 2.60 3000
7 4.5 3.6 2.17 3594 4.9 3.6 2.52 3095 5.6 3.6 2.90 2690
8 5.2 3.8 2.45 3184 5.6 3.8 2.80 2786 6.2 3.8 3.20 2438
9 5.8 4.1 2.73 2857 6.2 4.1 3.08 2532 6.9 4.1 3.50 2229
10 6.5 4.3 3.01 2591 6.9 4.3 3.35 2328 7.5 4.3 3.80 2053
11 7.1 4.5 3.29 2371 7.5 4.5 3.63 2149 8.2 4.5 4.09 1907
12 7.8 4.8 3.57 2185 8.2 4.8 3.91 1995 8.8 4.8 4.39 1777
13 8.4 5.0 3.85 2026 8.8 5.0 4.18 1866 9.4 5.0 4.69 1663
14 9.1 5.2 4.13 1,889 9.4 5.2 4.46 1,749 10.1 5.2 4.99 1563
15 9.7 5.5 4.41 1,769 10.1 5.5 4.73 1,649 10.7 5.5 5.29 1474

level groups were CA = 0.21942 ? 0.43117DBH; CA =
0.42617 ? 0.42706DBH; and CA = 0.33665 ?
0.46133DBH, respectively.
Using the CA equations, it was possible to calculate the
vital space required for a candeia tree to reach a given
projected DBH (Table 10).
Trees with smaller diameters (and smaller CA) can be
subjected to thinning at a later time than can fast growing
trees despite equal initial spacing. Considering an initial
spacing of 2.0 9 2.5 m (2000 N/ha) to maintain the growth
vigor of the plants, it would be necessary to apply thinning at
13, 11, and 10 years of age in the control, intermediate, and
optimum fertilization groups, respectively.
The control group had a lower diametric increment, and
thus lower CA, resulting in the need for a greater number
of plants per hectare to achieve full site occupation. The
optimum fertilization level (NPK 8-28-16) yielded greater
diametric growth for all evaluated ages. Thus a lower
number of plants per hectare would be required to achieve
a given level of total stand volume growth. This confirms
the logic in the model that stands with higher growth will
require earlier thinning to allow for maximum growth.
Both control and optimum fertilization groups can be
considered when installing a candeia stand. For small
landowners, the control group would be more representative,
since no fertilizer is applied at the planting time. Therefore, it
brings a financial benefit. In addition, thinning for this group
is required to be applied for the first time at age 13. Since
candeia is a slow-growing species, and the economic rotation
age of the plantation has been estimated at 12–15 years
(Silva et al. 2012), if the landowner decides to cut the stand at
age 13, a second financial benefit is achieved.
Optimum fertilization level allows a better condition for
the growth of candeia trees. This fertilization level would
be an interesting option for companies. Even expending
money at the planting time with fertilization, these com-
panies would increase the likelihood of generating revenue
earlier at time. At age 10 years, first thinning would be
required for this fertilization level, and the trees would
already be of commercial size due to their large dimen-
sions. In addition, instead of 12 years old, the rotation
would be increased to 15 years, and companies would
increase their profits to have trees with large dimensions
with good potential to be used either as fence posts or to oil
extraction.
Conclusions
Diameter growth of candeia was limited by fertilization
level. Greatest growth was obtained using treatment 10
(Fertilizer formulation NPK 8-28-16). The ARM analysis
coupled with spatial remodeling identified differences in
growth between treatments. ARM analysis is characterized
by higher discriminatory power compared to standard sta-
tistical methods.
The management of candeia, based on the individual
tree modeling, indicated the need for different manage-
ment strategies for stands that are unfertilized, fertilized
with NPK 8-28-16, and fertilized using all other
treatments.
Fertilizer formulation NPK 8-28-16 is indicated as the
best option for companies, while the control is indicated
mainly for small landowners.

123
Autoregressive spatial analysis and individual tree modeling as strategies for the management…
Acknowledgments The authors are grateful to the Coordenação de
Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nı́vel Superior (CAPES), the Con-
selho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cientı́fico e Tecnológico
(CNPq), the Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Minas
Gerais (FAPEMIG), the Instituto Estadual de Florestas (IEF), the
Instituto Brasileiro do Meio Ambiente e dos Recursos Naturais
Renováveis (IBAMA), Ministério do Meio Ambiente (MMA) and
Citróleo for supporting and/or partially funding this work.
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