Civil Engineering May 2021
PROBABILITY
number of favorable outcomes
P=
number of all possible of outcomes
If an event can happen in h ways and can fail in f
ways and all these are equally likely to occur, then
the probability of its happening is p = h/(h + f) and
the probability of its failing is q = f/(h + f) and that
p + q = 1.
Mutually Exclusive Events:
events are mutually exclusive if it is impossible
for more than one of them to happen in a single
trial.
Independent Events
if the happening of one does not affect the
probability of happening of the other
Dependent Events
if the happening of one affects the probability
of happening of the other
The Addition Rule
The probability that events A or B will occur,
P(A or B), is given by
P( A or B) = P( A) + P(B) - P( A and B)
If events A and B are mutually exclusive, then
the rule can be simplified to
P( A or B) = P( A) + P(B)
This simplified rule can be extended to any
number of mutually exclusive events.
Conditional Probability
the probability of an event occurring given that
another event has already occurred. The
conditional probability of event B occurring,
given that event A has occurred is denoted by
P(B/A).
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The Multiplication Rule 7. Given a class of 12 girls and 10 boys. What is
The probability that two events A and B will the probability that a committee of five, chosen
occur in sequence is at random from the class, consists of:
7a. Only girls Answer: 0.03
P( A and B) = P( A) ´ P(B / A) 7b. At least one girl Answer: 0.99
8. In a room of 23 people, what is the probability
If events A and B are independent, then the rule that at least 2 people have the same birthday?
can be simplified to Assume birthdays are uniformly distributed
across the year and there is no leap year
P( A and B) = P( A) ´ P(B) complication. Answer: 0.507
9. A real estate agent has 8 master keys to open
This simplified rule can be extended for any several homes. Only 1 master key will open any
number of independent events. given house. If 40% of these homes are usually
left unlocked, what is the probability that the
At Least One Condition
real estate agent can get into a specific home if
The probability that an event will occur at least once
the agent selects 3 master keys at random
in n trials is
before leaving the office? Answer: 0.625
P=1–Q 10. The probability that a doctor correctly
where Q is the probability of the event to totally fail. diagnoses a particular illness is 0.7. Given that
the doctor makes an incorrect diagnosis, the
Sample Problems: probability that the patient enters a lawsuit is
1. A coin is tossed twice. What is the probability 0.9. What is the probability that the doctor
that at least one head occurs? Answer: 3/4 makes an incorrect diagnosis and the patient
sues? Answer: 0.27
2. Suppose you toss a coin and then roll a die.
What is the probability of obtaining a tail and 11. Urn 1 contains 5 white balls and 7 black balls.
then rolling a 1? Answer: 1/12 Urn 2 contains 3 whites and 12 blacks. A fair
coin is flipped. If it shows heads, a ball from
3. A die is loaded in such a way that an even
urn 1 is drawn; if it is tails, a ball from urn 2 is
number is twice as likely to occur as an odd
drawn. Suppose a white ball was selected.
number. Find the probability that if this die is
What is the probability that this ball was taken
rolled, a number less than 4 occurs. Answer: 4/9
from Urn 2? Answer: 12/37
4. What is the probability of drawing a Queen or
12. Gunfighters A, B, and Care to fight a three-
a diamond from a standard deck of cards?
Answer: 4/13 cornered pistol duel. All know that A’s chance
of hitting the target is 0.3, C’s is 0.5, and B never
5. In a poker hand consisting of five cards, what misses. They are to fire at their choice of target
is the probability that… in succession in the order of A, B, and C,
5a. all 5 are diamonds? Answer: 33/66,640 cyclically (but a hit man loses his turn and is no
5b. 2 are clubs and 3 are hearts? Ans: 143/16,660 longer shot at) until only one man is left unhit.
6. If six cards are selected at random from a What should A’s strategy be?
standard deck, what is the probability that A. Shoots B first C. Shoots C first
there will be no pairs? Answer: 0.3452 B. Shoots the ground D. Shoots himself
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Civil Engineering May 2021
For Practice
1. A face of a coin is either head or tail. If three
coins are tossed, what is the probability of
getting three tails? Answer: 1/8
2. A bag contains 3 white and 5 black balls. If two
balls are drawn in succession without
replacement, what is the probability that…
2a. both balls are black? Ans: 5/14
2b. both are white? Ans: 3/28
2c. one is black and the other is white? A: 15/28
2d. both have the same color? Ans: 13/28
3. One bag contains 4 white balls and 3 black balls,
and a second bag contains 3 white balls and 5
black balls. One ball is drawn at random from
the second bag and is placed unseen in the first
bag. What is the probability that a ball now
drawn from the first bag is black? Ans: 29/64
4. The probability that a family owns a washing
machine is 0.78 and the probability that it owns
a VCR is 0.71. The probability that it owns both
a washing machine and a VCR is 0.58. What is
the probability that a randomly selected family
owns a washing machine or a VCR? Ans: 0.910
5. The probability that both stages of a two-stage
missile will function correctly is 0.95. The
probability that the first stage will function
correctly is 0.98. What is the probability that the
second stage will function correctly given that
the first one does? Answer: 0.969
6. When 100 coins are tossed, what is the
probability that exactly 50 are heads? Ans: 0.08
7. From a box containing 5 white balls, 7 blue
balls, and 10 black balls, one ball is drawn at
random. Determine the probability that it is
blue or white?
Answer: 6/11
8. A spider eats three flies a day. Until he fills his
quota, he has an even chance of catching any fly
that attempts to pass. A fly is about to make the
attempt. What are the chances of survival,
given that five flies have already made the
attempt today? Answer: 3/4
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9. To encourage Elmer’s promising tennis career,
his father offers him a prize if he wins (at least)
two tennis sets in a row in a three-set series to
be played with his father and the club
champion alternately:
Series A: FATHER-CHAMPION-FATHER or
Series B: CHAMPION-FATHER-CHAMPION
according to Elmer’s choice. The champion is a
better player than his father. Which series
should Elmer choose?
A. Series A C. Either A or B
B. Series B D. Neither A nor B
Answer: [ B ]
10. From where he stands, one step toward the cliff
would send the drunken man over the edge. He
takes random steps, either toward or away
from the cliff. At any step, his probability of
taking a step away is 2/3, of a step toward the
cliff 1/3. What is his chance of escaping the
cliff? Answer: 1/2
11. A certain statistical observation found that it
has a probability of failing once equal to 0.422,
twice equal to 0.141 and thrice equal to 0.016.
Determine the probability that it will fall once
or thrice. Answer: 0.438
12. In a family of five children, what is the chance
that there are three boys and two girls?
Answer: 5/16
13. A store has three kinds of toys given in every
purchase. What is the probability of getting all
three toys in five purchases? Answer: 0.6173
14. A piece of six-sided die is rolled 8 times.
Determine the probability that exactly five
times the die will turn up 1 or 2. Answer: 0.008
15. In a population of 100,000 females, 89.835% can
expect to live to age 60, while 57.062% can
expect to live to age 80. Given that a woman is
60, what is the probability that she lives to age
80? Answer: 63.52%
16. Three marksmen simultaneously shoot and hit
a rapidly spinning spherical target. What is the
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Algebra 5
probability that the three points of impact lie on
the same hemisphere? Answer: 1
17. Which of the following events is more likely:
that a person gets…
A. at least 1 six when 6 dice are rolled
B. at least 2 sixes when 12 dice are rolled
C. at least 3 sixes when 18 dice are rolled
D. all of the above are equally likely
Answer: [ A ]
18. A bin contains 25 light bulbs, 5 of which are in
good condition and will function for at least 30
days of use, 10 of which are partially defective
and will fail on the second day of use and 10 of
which are totally defective and will not light
up. Given that a randomly selected bulb
initially lights up, what is the probability that it
will still be working after one week? Ans: 1/3
19. The probability that an automobile being filled
with gasoline will also need an oil change is
0.25; the probability that it needs a new oil filter
is 0.40; and the probability that both the oil and
filter need changing is 0.14.
18a. If the oil had to be changed, what is the
probability that a new oil filter is needed?
Answer: 0.56
18b. If a new oil filter is needed, what is the
probability that the oil has to be changed?
Answer: 0.35
20. Luis takes a 20-question multiple-choice exam
where each question has five answers. Some of
the answers he knows, while the others he gets
right just by making lucky guesses. Suppose
that the conditional probability of his knowing
the answer to a randomly selected question
given that he got it right is 0.92. How many of
the 20 questions was he prepared for? Ans: 14
21. The probability that a house in an urban area
will be burglarized is 8.5%. If 45 houses are
randomly selected, what is the probability that
four of the houses will be burglarized?
Answer: 0.2038
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