Wind Power and Solar Energy Technology and

Business

Lecture 3
Wind resource modeling

Michael Child
Wind resource modeling
Wind resource assessment
Wind resource modeling?
What does it mean?

Evaluation of the energy production of

a planned wind farm
Comprised of:
• Wind speed, direction, etc. characteristics
• Estimation of annual energy production (Annual
Energy Production = AEP)
Wind resource assessment
Why is it important?

• The investment cost of onshore wind power is approx.

0.9-1.3 M € / MW, with offshore wind about 1.5-2 times
that of onshore wind power
• The investment costs of a 21 MW onshore wind farm
are approximately 20 - 30 M €
• The investment costs of a large 100 MW offshore
wind farm are about 130 - 240 M €
• Careful analysis of wind farm productivity is a
prerequisite for an investment decision
• A key factor in the productivity analysis is the modeling
of wind resources at the site of the planned park.
Global LCOE

https://www.irena.org/publications/2021/Jun/Renewable-Power-Costs-in-2020
Global Costs and Capacity Factors

https://www.irena.org/publications/2021/Jun/Renewable-Power-Costs-in-2020
Wind resource modeling
How is it done?

1. Preliminary assessment
• Existing wind resource assessment
• Use any existing wind measurements made nearby
2. Wind measurements
3. Use of long-term wind and weather statistics
4. Wind farm modeling, including 'micrositing'
• Various wind farm modeling tools are in use (Wind
Farm Design tools, or WFD tools)
 1. Preliminary assessment of wind resources
Finnish Wind Atlas

▪ Based on the Finnish Meteorological Institute's numerical

AROME weather forecast model and Danish Wind
Application and Analysis program (WAsP) for wind model
sharing.
▪ The weather models HIRLAM and AROME are dynamic
predictive models that describe atmospheric physics.
▪ WAsP model gives a climatic description of the wind
observations of the AROME model, which also removes
the effects of landforms and terrain roughness
▪ Wind conditions have been calculated with a weather
model of 2.5 x 2.5 km ^ 2 node size from the whole of
Finland
▪ On the coasts and in a few inland areas more accurate
models with 250 x 250 m ^ 2 nodes are calculated using
WAsP January average wind speeds
https://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/wind-atlas
▪ Similar wind atlases can be found all over the world
Wind Atlas
What does it say?
▪ Wind Atlas describes average wind conditions in a given area, not detailed
wind conditions at a single map point
▪ Wind Atlas (Finland) describes the average monthly and annual wind
conditions for the last 50 years. Wind conditions in individual years can
deviate significantly from average values.
▪ For more information and instructions from:
https://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/wind-atlas
▪ Link to Wind Atlas the map interface:
▪ http://tuuliatlas.fmi.fi/en/
 Wind Atlas

• Wind rose
developed
using the Wind
Atlas tool for
the forest at
the back of the
university

Activity:
https://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/wind-atlas
2. Wind measurements at the site

▪ The preliminary assessment of wind resources will be

refined by on-site wind measurements (site specific
measurements)
▪ The measurements should last at least a year because
the winds are very different in different seasons
▪ Measurements are made at several heights
▪ Measurement accuracy is very important for an
investment decision
• The term ”bankability” is often used to describe the
quality of measurements
• Bankable means that the results are valid for the
investors who make the decision to fund the project
 Measuring devices
• Cup anemometer
• Wind vane
• Ultrasonic anemometer
• LIDAR (Light Detection And Ranging)
• SODAR (Sonic Detection And Ranging)
Cup anemometer

▪ The most commonly used wind

speed sensor
▪ A mechanical device that
measures the horizontal speed of
the wind
▪ Disadvantages of moving parts =>
Prone to wear, dirt, salt, ice and
snow => Requires maintenance
▪ Despite the disadvantages, a
standard sensor, for example in
power curve measurements, IEC
61400-12-1 Power performance
measurements of electricity
producing wind turbines
▪ In cold conditions it needs heating
to prevent freezing
Weather vane

▪ A mechanical sensor that measures

the direction of the wind
▪ In cold conditions requires heating
Example
Vaisala Wind Set WA25

• Cup anemometer and

weather vane
• Measuring range 0.4-75 m / s
and 0-360 °
• Operating temperature -55…
+ 55 ° C
• Heated cups and vane as
well as to the sensor shafts,
bearings and bodies

Source: https://www.vaisala.com/en/products/instruments-
sensors-and-other-measurement-devices/weather-stations-and-
sensors/wa25
Ultrasonic anemometer

▪ More advanced anemometers

▪ Uses ultrasonic technology to
detect wind speed
▪ Piezoelectric sensors that act as
both transmitters and receivers
▪ No moving parts => Maintenance
free
▪ In cold conditions requires heating
to avoid freezing

Image:
https://www.thiesclima.com/en/Products/W
ind-Ultrasonic-Anemometer/?art=350
Example
Thies Ultrasonic 2D anemometer

• Measures horizontal (2D) wind

speed, direction and temperature
• Measuring range 0 ... 85 m / s, 0…
360 º
• Temperature range - 50 ... +80 ° C
• Heating icing against

Image:
https://www.thiesclima.com/en/Products/W
ind-Ultrasonic-Anemometer/?art=350
Installation of sensors on the mast
• Anemometers are typically installed on
three levels
• The wind gradient is determined
(wind shear) and wind direction
variations at different altitudes
(wind veer)
• Also temperature measurements at 3
heights
• Atmospheric stability (vertical
temperature gradient)
• Double sensors at all heights, on both
sides of the mast to eliminate the
shading effect
• Pressure and humidity are also usually
measured
• Good accuracy requires calibrated
sensors and careful installation
LUT measurement arrangements used in wind
measurement projects in Puumala and Joutseno.
Installation Finnish Meteorological Institute
 LIDAR (Light Detection and Ranging)
▪ The device emits a laser beam into the atmosphere and
measures the beam reflected from atmospheric particles
▪ Wind measurement is based on the Doppler phenomenon
▪ The device sends a laser beam at a certain frequency
into the atmosphere 200 - 300 m
▪ The beam is reflected back from atmospheric particles,
changing its frequency
▪ The change in frequency tells you the speed of the
particles and the wind
▪ Atmospheric particles are aerosols, dust particles, water
droplets
▪ LIDAR emits more rays into the atmosphere with different
orientations in order to determine
▪ Wind speed horizontally and vertically
TRANSMITTER
▪ Wind direction
RECEIVER
▪ Measurements are obtained from several heights up to
approx. 200 meters
▪ Today, LIDAR measurements are also bankable
LIDAR - example
Example: Zeph IR ZX300 onshore lidar

• Measuring range (height) 10 - 200 m

• Measured heights max. 10
• Speed ​range <1… 80 m / s
• Scanning angle 30 deg
• Speed ​accuracy 0.1 m / s
• Directional accuracy <0.5 deg
• Temperature range -40 deg - +50 deg
• Measurement data 1 s data (1 s / height)
+ 10 min average
• Dimensions 900 x 900 x 1001 mm
• Weight 55 kg

Source: ZephIR laser anemometer, product Specification ,

https://www.zxlidars.com/wind-lidars/zx-300/
LIDAR - example
Example: Wind Cube laser anemometer

• Measuring range (height) 40 - 200+ m

• Heights to be measured max. 12
• Wind speed 0… 60 m / s
• Speed ​accuracy 0.1 m / s
• Directional accuracy 2 deg
• Scanning angle 28 deg
• Temperature range -30 deg ... + 45 deg
• Measurement data 1 sec (all heights)
+ 10 min average
• Dimensions 55x56x55
• Weight 46 kg
• Works well in complex terrain

Source: https://www.vaisala.com/en/wind-lidars/wind-energy
 LIDAR

• Challenges
• Power supply
• Snow and ice
• Window cleaning
• Vandalism

• Data transmission
• GSM network

LIDAR measurements in South Karelia in October 2010, photos by Aapo Koivuniemi

LIDAR Measurements
LIDAR measurements in South Karelia November 2012,
photos by Katja Hynynen
SODAR (Sound Detection And
Ranging)

Acoustic doppler-sensor

• The basic principle of

measurement is the same as in
LIDAR
• Use an acoustic pulse instead
of a laser beam
• Compared to LIDAR accuracy
typically slightly lower
• Disturbed by sounds
(highways, airplanes, railways)
3. Long-term wind measurements

• The annual variation in mean wind speeds can be

even 15% of the long-term average
• One year of measurements is not enough to
estimate 20 years of wind resources
• Longer measurements ”on site“ are usually not
possible
• Instead, it combines long-term regulation ”on site” to
the measured data
• Long-term weather data is available in most
countries
• In Finland, the Finnish Meteorological Institute
makes weather measurements throughout the
country
• In addition, long-term data is also available e.g. from Finnish Meteorological Institute
observation stations in Finland
Foreca Source: Finland Wind Atlas
https://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/wind-
energy
4. Wind farm modeling
Wind atlas method / 1 /
• Measuring stations provide measurement data at specific locations and
altitudes
• Weather station measurements are typically at an altitude of 10 m
• Measurements made at low altitudes are strongly influenced by local terrain
conditions
• The measurement data must be converted to wind atlas data, where the local
terrain conditions of the measurement site are taken into account (buildings,
etc. obstacles, elevations, surface roughness)
• Wind Atlas data corresponds to wind speed and direction at sensor height in
open terrain (surface roughness class 1)
• Wind Atlas data is divided into 12 directional sectors (N, NNW, NWW, W, SSW,
SWW, S, SSE, SEE, E, NEE, NNE)
• Wind data is still approximated to different heights (25, 50, 100, 200 m)
• The obtained Wind Atlas data describes the regional wind conditions in a 20-
100 km area
• Certain ”site“ wind conditions are obtained by applying the same methods in
several directions and locations
 Wind farm modeling

• Preliminary information on potential wind farm locations from Wind Atlas

• The wind conditions are then modeled ”on site’(micro-siting)
• The following input data are required for modeling wind conditions

1. Measurements of at least one year at the planned location

2. Long-term wind data (weather model data or local weather station data)
3. Elevation information in the vicinity of the planned wind farm (within a radius of
approx. 10 km)
• National Land Survey
• https://www.maanmittauslaitos.fi/en/e-services/open-data-file-download-service
• ASTER data –Advanced Spaceborn Thermal Emission and Reflection
Radiometer
https://asterweb.jpl.nasa.gov/
• SRTM data - Shuttle Radar Topography Mission
http://www2.jpl.nasa.gov/srtm/
4. Surface roughness data around the wind farm (within a radius of 10 km)
5. Suitable wind farm modeling application
• WAsP, Wind Sim. Modeling of wind conditions ”on site"
• Wind Pro, Wind Farmer. For comprehensive wind farm optimization (roads, land
use, noise, 3D representations…)
WFD (Wind Farm Design) tools

▪ WAsP (Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Program = WAAAP => WAsP)
▪ Developed at the RISØ Institute in Denmark
▪ Based on linear Navier Stokes equations
▪ Works well on flat terrain, but in complex terrain (hills, forest) may be
inaccurate
▪ Today, a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) option for complex
terrain modeling is also available
▪ Still the “de facto” modeling program in wind resource modeling
▪ www.wasp.dk
WFD (Wind Farm Design) tools

▪ Wind Sim
▪ Used in modeling WAsP - more complex flow model.
▪ CFDs give more reliable results in complex terrain.
▪ www.windsim.com
▪ Wind Farmer
▪ Provides tools for overall wind farm modeling
▪ https://www.dnvgl.com/services/windfarmer-3766
▪ Wind Pro
▪ Provides tools for overall wind farm modeling
▪ http://www.emd.dk/windpro/
WFD tools in modeling
Example
▪ VTT has analyzed Meri-Pori wind farm production by 4
different methods
1. Wind Sim analysis using local measurements
2. WAsP analysis using local measurements
3. WAsP analysis using Wind Atlas 2.5 km node wind
data
4. WAsP analysis using windmill 250 m node wind data
▪ The table shows the differences between actual and
modeled production
▪ Positive indicates production exceeded estimates

Menetelmä 1 2 3 4
Turbiinit 1-4, Hilska 8.10 % 23.80 % 46.30 % 33.70 % Turbines 1-4 @ Meri-Pori wind farm
Turbiinit 6-9 3.00 % -6,1% 15.50 % 12.90 %
Meri-Pori wind farm
Menetelmä 1 2 3 4
Turbiinit 1-4, Hilska 8.10 % 23.80 % 46.30 % 33.70 %
TURBINES 6-9 Turbiinit 6-9 3.00 % -6,1% 15.50 % 12.90 %
Tahkoluoto

TURBINES 1-4 + HS
Mäntyluoto
Source: Google Earth
Sources and other literature
Sources

/ 1 / Wizelius, Developing wind power projects, Theory and practice, Earthscan

2007

Interesting web pages

Weather Institute, https://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/ (Climate subpages, Services and

products, Scientific themes)
VTTn wind statistics, https://www.vttresearch.com/en/ourservices/wind-power