IS 2010 THE HOTTEST YEAR EVER?

by Steve Goddard

SPPI REPRINT SERIES

February 15, 2011

THE HOTTEST YEAR ON RECORD?

by Steve Goddard | February 15, 2011

Dr. James Hansen of NASAs Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) has announced that 2010 was the hottest year on record by 0.01 degrees. His claim has been widely touted in the press as strong evidence that the climate is rapidly heating due to human generated CO2 emissions. Dr. Hansen has also stated : "I would not be surprised if most or all groups found that 2010 was tied for the warmest year." But most groups do not support his claim. The other independent source of surface temperatures HadCRUT, shows 2010 cooler than 1998. The graph below shows the month to month differences. Blue represents months where 2010 was cooler than 1998.

The next graph shows the HadCRUT temperature anomalies for each year since 1998. Last year was not a remarkable year, and was not as warm as 1998.

Similarly, full year satellite temperatures from RSS show 2010 monthly and annual anomalies lower than 1998.

Satellite data from UAH also shows 2010 slightly cooler than 1998.

The graph below shows 2010 monthly temperatures for each of the four primary data sets. As you can see, the month-to-month behavior of GISS global temperatures during 2010 was out of kilter with other data sources.

Note that GISS (blue) showed a large temperature spike in March - which was not seen by others. And from July through November, GISS increased sharply while everyone else showed temperatures dropping due to a near record cold La Nia. La Nia is indicated by ocean temperatures well below normal across much of the Pacific Ocean. The November spike was followed in December by the largest month-to-month drop in the 130 year GISS record. What sudden change in the climate could have caused a sharp December drop after four months of rise? A plausible explanation is that the August-November reported GISS temperatures were too high, and that December came back more in line with reality. The NOAA graph below shows that ocean surface temperatures across much of the Pacific have been the coldest on record since July (yet GISS temperatures rose sharply during that time.)

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/comp.png From a physical point of view, it is implausible to have a July-November temperature spike coincident with the rapidly cooling global sea surface temperatures seen in the graph below. This is because the oceans make up almost 70% of the planets surface, and because sea surface temperatures largely control the temperatures over land.

http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/AMSRE_SST_thru_Dec_10.gif
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COMPARISONS VS. 1998 The HadCRUT graph below shows that 2010 was not a remarkable year for temperatures, and was cooler than 1998. In fact, HadCRUT also shows that temperatures have not warmed appreciably (if at all) since 1998.

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1997/from By contrast, Dr. Hansen claims that temperatures have increased steadily since the mid-1970s. "Global temperature is rising as fast in the past decade as in the prior two decades However, even his own data shows no significant trend since 2002, and chances are that the GISS January, 2011 anomaly will be one of the lowest of the past decade.

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/gistemp/from:2002 The UK Met Office explicitly contradicts Dr. Hansens claim: In the last 10 years the rate of warming has decreased. DIVERGENCE FROM OTHER DATA SOURCES Since the HadCRUT record warm year of 1998, GISS (green below) has steadily diverged from other data sets, and is now showing temperatures 0.2 to 0.4 degrees warmer. This is particularly significant because the claimed 2010 record is by a much smaller margin than the discrepancy. Normally scientists will associate a range of errors with their numbers, but Dr. Hansen has avoided mentioning that concept to the press. Rather he has boldly stated that 2010 is the hottest year on record by 0.01 degrees.

http://www.woodfortrees.org/ WHAT IS GISS DOING WRONG? The biggest problem is that their warmest regions are in locations where they have little or no data. GISS released the map below for December 2009 through November 2010, showing large temperature anomalies near the North Pole of two to six degrees centigrade. Those hot red temperatures skew the global average temperature anomaly upwards by a significant margin.

But when we look at where GISS actually has thermometers, we see that they have very few in those hot regions. The grey regions in the map below indicate no data.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/ Temperature anomalies can vary a lot over short distances (note Russia in the map above) yet GISS force fits the entire Arctic to 2-6 C above normal. By averaging in large fabricated numbers, they skew the global temperature average upwards by a significant amount. Remember that the GISS record is only one hundredth of a degree warmer than their previous record.
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Hansens claimed precision is much larger than his accuracy. He has no temperature data for more than 10% of the planet. His error bar is probably +/- 0.3 degrees, yet he claims a record by 0.01 degrees. That mistake would cause him to fail an undergraduate science or engineering class. GISS openly acknowledges that their artificial Arctic data is the cause of the discrepancy with HadCRUT. A likely explanation for discrepancy in identification of the warmest year is the fact that the HadCRUT analysis excludes much of the Arctic (whereas GISS) estimates temperature anomalies throughout most of the Arctic. http://www.go350ppm.org/Global20Surface20Temperature20Change.pdf WAS 2010 A RECORD HOT YEAR? There is little evidence to support that. For example, the UK Met Office reported that 2010 was the coldest year in England since 1986. Temperatures there have dropped significantly over the past decade.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/
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Last winter and the current one have seen record or near record cold across much of the Northern Hemisphere. The Rutgers University graph below shows that North America had the most extensive snow cover ever recorded last winter. One day in February, all 48 contiguous US states had snow cover. This was due largely to unusually cold temperatures in the deep south.

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_seasonal.php?ui_set=namgnld&ui_season=1 For the entire Northern Hemisphere, last winter had the second greatest snow extent on record. This was again due to unusually cold temperatures at low latitudes places like Florida, Europe and China.

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http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_seasonal.php?ui_set=nhland&ui_season=1 Like last year, winter 2010-2011 is again bringing unusually cold weather across much of the planet. Sea Surface Temperatures are running below normal across vast swaths of the ocean. Recent satellite data shows that global temperatures are well below the thirty year mean. This is not consistent with record heat.

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http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif December 2010 was the second coldest out of 353 years in England and the coldest on record in the UK. Florida also had their coldest December on record in 2010, as seen below.

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http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/fl.html The current winter has also seen near record snow across much of Asia, Europe and North America. December had the fourth largest Northern Hemisphere December snow extent ever measured.

http://climate.rutgers.edu/
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WHAT CAUSED THE POSITIVE ANOMALIES IN EARLY 2010? GISS showed a large spike in temperatures in March. Was this actually due to hot weather? The map below is the RSS satellite temperature anomaly map for March, and it shows some interesting features.

http://www.remss.com/msu/msu_data_monthly.html There is an anomalously warm region in Northern Canada and Western Greenland, where temperatures were running about -20C, five degrees warmer than the normal -25C. This was due to a negative Arctic Oscillation, which brings warmer than normal temperatures to portions of Canada and cold weather to Europe, Russia, the United States, and much of Asia. Is -20C (-4F) hot? Not exactly. GISS extrapolated that warmth across the entire Arctic Map below) and found a large March temperature spike which no one else saw. GISS also somehow missed the cold weather in Europe and much of Russia.

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http://data.giss.nasa.gov/ Once again we see that Hansens 0.01 record temperature is based on suspect data. Another important factor in the warmth of 2010 was a strong El Nio, which dominated the first half of the year. This caused a short term spike in temperatures which should not be interpreted as a trend.

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http://www.drroyspencer.com/ SOME HISTORY ABOUT DR. JAMES HANSEN Dr. Hansen has a long history of exaggerated warming forecasts. Hansen said the average U.S. temperature had risen from one to two degrees since 1958 and is predicted to increase an additional 3 or 4 degrees sometime between 2010 and 2020. The Press-Courier (Milwaukee) June 11 1986 Within 15 years (before 2001), said Goddard Space Flight Center honcho James Hansen, global temperatures will rise to a level which hasnt existed on earth for 100,000 years. The News and Courier, June 17th 1986 Pursuing present plans for coal and oil, Hansen found, the climate in the middle of the 21st century would approach the warmth of the age of the dinosaurs. The Leader-Post, January 9th, 1982 (Hansens 1988 forecast for Manhattan in 2008) The West Side Highway [which runs along the Hudson River] will be under water. And there will be tape across the windows across the street because of high winds. And the same birds won't be there. The trees in the median strip will change." Then he said, "There will be more police cars." Why? "Well, you know what happens to crime when the heat goes up." http://dir.salon.com/books/int/2001/10/23/weather/
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[Since Dr. Hansen made that prediction, NOAA tide gauges show less than one half inch rise in sea level near Manhattan.] How far can it go? The last time the world was three degrees warmer than today which is what we expect later this century sea levels were 25m higher. http://www.climateimc.org Temperatures have not come close to what Dr. Hansen formally forecast in 1988 - seen below. The red dot is the GISS December anomaly. (January will likely be even lower.) The top line is where Hansen forecast we should be under a high-emissions scenario. The bottom dashed line is where he forecast we would be if CO2 emissions were cut dramatically. Yet CO2 emissions have greatly increased, but temperatures have not.

Scenario A assumes continued exponential trace gas growth, scenario B assumes a reduced linear growth of trace gases, and scenario C assumes a rapid curtailment of trace gas emissions such that the net climate forcing ceases to increase after the year 2000. http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/1988/1988_Hansen_etal.pdf Manhattan is not disappearing under water, but Dr. Hansen continues to project similar bloated forecasts into the future.
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CONCLUSION The 2010 record temperature claim is not scientifically supportable for many reasons rather it is a global warming marketing bullet. 2011 is starting out as a very cold year in the US and across much of the rest of the planet particularly Asia. Chances are 2011 will be one of the coolest years in recent memory. It will be interesting to see what claims will be made by Hansen this year.

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/YearTDeptUS.png Dr. Hansen functions in the roles of global warming head coach, cheerleader, referee and scorekeeper. Temperature measurements need to be made by neutral third parties in the global warming debate.

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Cover art uploaded by Charon to dreamstime.com.

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