DSE QUARTERLY

Market Review
Q1 2024
CONTENT
01 Equity Market

02 Bond Market

03 Economic Review

04 DSE Outlook
Equity Market
 EQUITY MARKET
Index Returns for Q1 2024
Performance
The conclusion of the quarter saw
significant growth in the Dar es Salaam All Share Index 2.1%
stock market, indicating promising returns
for investors, as reflected by the benchmark
Tanzania Share Index 3.9%
indices. The all share index, which gauges
the performance of all listed companies,
Industrial & Allied 0.2%
rose by 2.1%, ascending from 1754.20 points
to 1790.24. Similarly, the TSI surged by 3.9%
Banks, Finance and
from 4,295.26 points. Both the total market 12.1%
capitalization and domestic market Investments
capitalization experienced growth rates
parallel to those of the DSEI and TSI, Commercial Services 0.4%
respectively.
DSE Market Capitalization Source: TSL research computations

2.1% 3.9%

Total market Cap Domestic Market Cap

grew by 2.1% to grew by 3,9% to TZS
TZS 14.94 T 11.81T
 PERFORMANCE BY SECTORS
BANKS, FINANCE & INVESTMENTS (BI) BI IA CS
8.0%
This sector proved to be the most lucrative within the DSE.
Generally, the sector steers the Tanzanian stock market.
6.0%
Witnessing a substantial surge of 6.6% in February, compared
to a mere 0.1% growth in January, although experiencing a slight
dip to 5.5% in March. The sector's strong performance can be 4.0%
attributed to several active counters with commendable
financial results, including CRDB, NMB, DSE DCB, and TICL.
2.0%
INDUSTRIAL & ALLIED (IA)
0.0%
This sector ranks as the second most profitable within our
market. It experienced a downturn in the initial month of
2024 but rebounded in February with a growth of 0.8%. -2.0%
JAN FEB MAR
However, it saw a decline of 0.4% later in March. TCCL and
TPCC play pivotal roles in determining the market Source: TSL research computations
performance of the Industrial and Allied (IA) sectors.
BI SECTOR INCLUDES:
COMMERCIAL SERVICES (CS) CRDB, DCB, MBP, MCB, MUCOBA, NMB, MKCB, NICO, TICL and DSE
Throughout the quarter, the sector experienced a slight IA SECTOR INCLUDES:
decline. In January, there was a marginal decrease of TCCL, TBL, TCC, TPCC, TTP, JATU and TOL
0.2%, followed by another 0.2% drop in February. March
saw stability with no significant change. SWISS port CS SECTOR INCLUDES:
serves as the primary determinant of the sector's overall PAL, VODA and SWISS
performance.
 MARKET TURNOVER
Amounts in TZS
TZS 26,196,997,880
The total turnover for the month doubled
compared to January, mainly driven by
heightened market activities, particularly in
block trades, which contributed to
approximately 69.6% of the monthly turnover.
CRDB alone accounted for 56.53%, Followed
by TBL, TPCC, NMB and TOL 40.6% that
accounted for of the total market turnover.
TZS 57,612,776,535
The total turnover for the quarter experienced
a decline of 60.41% compared to the previous
quarter. This decrease was primarily attributed
to the significant 106.25 billion block trade
related to Twiga Cement's acquisition of a
majority shareholding in Tanga Cement in the
last quarter (Q4 2024). However, excluding this
once off large transaction from the previous
quarter, the market turnover could have
increased by 46.77%.
TZS 13,228,375,300
CRDB was the most traded counter for
January the month of January. attributing to
62.50% of the total turnover, followed by
NMB that accounted to 17.33%.
Furthermore, almost half (49.16%) of the
February turnover was attributed by block trade
of CRDB, NMB, TICL, TCC and TICL
TZS 18,187,403,355
March Total turnover declined slightly by 22%
compared to february. CRDB was the top
mover, with a total turnover of 50.77%.
Total Followed by TBL, TPCC, NMB and TICL which
absorbed a total of 45.05%.
Capital Outflow TZS 19,466,620,000
Foreign investors withdrew from the market
with a total of TZS 23.72 billion, whereas only
TZS 4.25 billion of turnover originated from
shares purchased by foreign investors,
indicating a 7.12% participation rate of
foreign investors on the buying side.
 TOP GAINERS AND LOSSERS

TOP GAINERS TOP LOSERS TOP MOVERS

NICO 650 30% -16.7% SWISS 1100 Turnover Contribution

s/n Counter
(TZS bil) (%)
23.9% -10.0% KCB 315
CRDB 570 1 CRDB 31.55 54.77%

NMB 4870 6.2% -1.6% NMG 315 2 TBL 9.66 16.78%

TPCC 4300 3 NMB 5.93 10.31%

TICL 195 2.6% -1.4%
4 TPCC 5.74 9.97%
DSE 1840 2.2% -0.9% TCCL 2100
5 TCC 1.51 2.63%

Source: TSL research computations

 INACTIVE COUNTERS

Source: TSL research computations

 Q4 2023 VS Q1 2024 DSE MARKET

Source: TSL research computations

Bond Market
PRIMARY MARKET
yields
T-Bonds
T-Bond Yields (Weighted Average) 101% The bond market conducted 7 treasury bond auctions. With a
20
total tendered amount of TZS 1.96 trillion, which represent a
15 oversubscription of 101% from an offered amount of TZS
952.92 billion. The government managed to collect TZS 895.63
10
billion. The average yields for the treasury bonds increased
5
marginally following the re-opened bond.
0
10 YEAR 15 YEAR 20 YEAR 25 YEAR

T-Bills Yields T-Bills

35 days 91 days 182 days 364 days 299% During the quarter 7, T-bills auctions were performed. The
14
government offered TZS 468.92 billion, and collected a total of
12
10
TZS 811.08 billion, out of the tendered amount of TZS 1.54
8 trillion, that represents 299% oversubscription for the bills.
6 The yields for 365 days T-bills raised marginally from 11.80%
4 to a pick of 12.30%, while yields for the for 91 days and 182 T-
2 bills declined marginally from 8.5% to 8.18% and 9.3% to
0 8.65%. respectively.
3-Jan 17-Jan 31-Jan 14-Feb 28-Feb 13-Mar 27-Mar

Source: TSL research

 SECONDARY MARKET

The bond market recorded a total turnover of about TZS

972.878 billion an increase of 65.5% when compared to the
previous quarter, Q4 2023. The increase in the turnovers
signifies shift in investors sentment from equity markets to
fixed income as attracted by juicer return following
increase in yields after the issue of reopened bond
calendrer for the second half of government FY 2023/2024.

Yields in the secondary market has increased marginaly

when compared to the previous quarter, as caused by re-
opened bonds. For example 25 year bond with a coupon
rate of 12.56% has been trading at 13.96% while 25 year
bond with a coupon of 15.95% has been trading at average
yield of 16.23%

The 15-year, 20-year, and 25-year bonds maintained their

status as the most liquid securities compared to others in
the market.

Source: TSL research

Economic Review
 INFLATION INTEREST RATES
3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0
Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24
The headline inflation rate, which includes all items within
the fixed Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket, remained
stable at 3.0% in March 2024, matching the rate seen
throughout the first quarter of the year. This stability is
attributed to prudent monetary policy measures and
sufficient domestic supply.
Remaining within the target range of 3% to 5%, this
moderate level of inflation can be beneficial for the
economy, stimulating growth and boosting corporate
profits. This, in turn, has contributed to a modest upward
trend in the market, with a 2.1% increase in equity market
capitalization during the quarter.
The central bank closely monitored changes in the 7-day interbank cash
market (IBCM) rate to maintain it within a range of +/-200 basis points
around the central bank rate (CBR) of 5.5%. Consequently, the 7-day
interest rate saw minimal variation, standing at 7.28% in February 2024,
which was a slight increase from 7.25% in the previous month.
During this time, banks lowered their lending rates, with an average rate of
15.44% in February 2024, down from 15.96% in the same month of the
previous year. This reduction was partly due to improved credit risk, as
indicated by a decline in non-performing loans below the bank’s threshold
of 5%. Additionally, negotiated lending rates decreased from 13.75% in
February 2023 to 13.40%.
Overall deposit rates remained stable, averaging 7.39%. Negotiated deposit
rates experienced a slight increase to 9.52% from 9.37%. Importantly, the
spread between one-year interest rates narrowed from 8.07 percentage
points in February 2023 to 7.04 percentage points in February 2024.

Source: BoT Monthly Economic Review.

 GDP GROWTH RATE PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT GROWTH
7 5.5 5.4
5.2 5.3 5.4 5.1
6

0
2019Q1 2020Q1 2021Q1 2022Q1 2023Q1 2024Q1 (E)
Source: National Bureau of Statistics and Bank of Tanzania
computations
The country's GDP expanded from 4.7% in the previous
quarter to an estimated 5.1% in the first quarter of 2024.
This growth is underpinned by the increase in public
investments, particularly in infrastructure, which in turn
facilitates private sector growth.
All economic sectors have shown growth, particularly
agriculture, and financial & insurance activities The ongoing
economic recovery, evidenced by a rise in credit extended
to the private sector, has generated positive ripple effects
across various sectors such as agriculture, transport,
construction, and manufacturing.
Source: BoT Monthly Economic Review.
Source: Bank of Tanzania computations
Money supply and private sector credit have consistently increased, aiding
the overall growth of economic activity across multiple sectors. In February
2024, the extended broad money supply (M3) rose modestly to 13.1%, up
from 12.8% in the previous month.
Private sector credit growth remained robust, at 16.8 percent, slightly
lower than the growth recorded in the previous month. The sustained
demand for loans indicates ongoing expansion in economic activities,
driven by favourable business conditions and supportive policies.
Credit extended to agricultural activities recorded the highest growth rate
at 49.6%, followed by mining and quarrying. Personal loans, which are
mainly allocated to sole-owned businesses and small to medium
enterprises, represented the largest portion of outstanding credit at 37.2%.
Trade accounted for 13.6%, while agriculture held a share of 10.2% of
outstanding credit.
DSE MARKET OUTLOOK
 DSE MARKET OUTLOOK
We anticipate significant activity in the equity market during the upcoming
quarter, Q2 2024, driven by dividend disbursements across various stocks. This
is likely to result in investors having sufficient liquidity to make necessary
adjustments to their portfolios. We anticipate a prices volatility for companies
listed on the BI index, due to counters’ liquidity.

In the bond market, we anticipate a decrease in yields for the re-opened

bonds as investor appetite grows, fueled by the rise in coupon rates.
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Securities as to the accuracy of the information contained and opinions expressed herein.