QDHS G11 MAA HL Statistics #2

9. A sports club has a volleyball

! team and a hockey
! team. The heights of the 6 members of the volleyball
2
team are summarised by x = 1050 and
x = 193700, where x is the height of a member in cm.
! !
The heights of the 11 members of the hockey team are summarised by y = 1991 and y 2 = 366400,
where y is the height of a member in cm.
(a) Find the mean height of all 17 members of the club.
(b) Find the standard deviation of the heights of all 17 members of the club.

i=§÷ . . . . .Sy
. . . .a). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .g-=
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .b). . . .o=
Ig
...................................
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .t. . .hz
n
, ....................
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .•. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8-21-32
l°s◦y,
'

. . . . . . . . Mean . . . . . . . . .>. . .eel

. . . . . . beightol . . . . . . . . . . .-560100
.
y,I
-

=
- -

..............................................................................................
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178.88
=
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ."
.....................................
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .F
.................................................................
179cm
..............................................................................................
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0--182
........................................

10. For n values of the variable x, it is given that

! !
(x − 50) = 144 and x = 944.
Find the value of n.

. . . .a- ñ="ⁿI
..........................................................................................
=

..............................................................................................
. . . . . . . .9¥
a- = :

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1491-501=999
. . . . . .,n≠o
.

..................................................................
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Son
. . . . . . . .800
=
....................................................
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .n=
:#
.........................................................
..............................................................................................
1n=1#
..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................

Page 6 of 7
QDHS G11 MAA HL Statistics #2

11. A set of 10 integers {3, 9, 5, 5, 6, 4, a, 6, b, 8} has mean 6 and population variance 3.2. Find a and b given
that a > b.

. . .02=3-2
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6. . . . . . . . . . . . .◦
=

=
.................................................
..............................................................................................
62
E(xn2
=

46
. . . . . . . .60
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .tatb
=

..............................................................
atb =
14

≤%oᵗ
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3-
. . .2. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
=
"

. . . . . . . . . .-12A
" a
. . . . . . . .Cia
. . . a). . . -12cm
*
. . . . . . . .a). . . . .Gg
-
2
.........................................................
- = -

-12×+196-289+92
qtqtltltotytgfa-GJtlb.tt#=z.z2a2-28at96--0a2
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .ta
a2 -168 -68 =

..............................................................
..............................................................................................
-

14kt 48=0 axb -18

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .atb
. . . . .-14
...............................................................
=

Ca 8) ( a It
-
-

6) = 0 (-8 ,
-6 ) 28 + ( a- 6) Cb -
6) 2 =
32

{
a- 8 a 6 28 1- ( a 6) ( a- G)
=

( b- 6) ( b-
61=32
,
-

+
b = 6 b = 8
,
28 + at
-12 a
+36 tbh 12h
_

+36=32
Since > b
-

- . a A2 -

12 a + b2 -
Kb = -68
,

n
! n
! " #
12. (a) Prove that (xi − µ)2 = x2i − nµ2 .
i=1 i=1
25
!
(b) The data set {x1 , x2 , . . . ., x25 } has x2i = 2568.25 and population standard deviation 5.2. Find
i=1
the mean of the data set.

. . . a)
= É
. . . . . . MY
. . . . . . . . . . . . .Gci
i =/
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . b)
-

..............................................................................................
.............................
5-2
=É
MY +
. . .)2t(x
Cx 't
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Gu . . .(.%
. . ). . . . . . . . + . . . .MP
É ÉÉ
=
-

. . . . .µ . . . . . . }. . . µ . . . . . . . 5.2
...........................
.
-

- -
-
. _

Go =
µ )(
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .M
,
-

. .). . +
. . Gg
×
. . . . . .pity
, . . . . . . . . .µ
-

. .). . .t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-
-
. .
.

. . . . . . . . . . . . .XP
?
. . . . . -274M . . . . . 1-12-21
. . . . . . . . . .1-.µ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5-2
. . .+. .µ2+ 2%-2*-25×-2
=
. . . . . . . . . . . . .µ ........................... .
. .
=

=
=

. . . . . . . . . . . . . Cin
. . . . . . tripe "
...........................................................................
-214M -27Eur -21M 2568.25-25×-2=26
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2(
. . . . . . . . . . . =xnᵗtnM2 . . . Kintner
.................................................................
µ tks but )
-

. .µ. . . . . . .). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .-2542.25

25×-2
_ . .

CÉYI )
-
=

. . . . . . . . . . . . . in
. . . .+. npih . . .(
. . . . .-2 .........

=xn2tnµ~ -2M¥ "

a- 2=101-69
i
,
"

an
-2M€ ki ' II 10.1 I > 0
=

µ
+ n
,
,

Page 7 of 7
?⃝
QDHS G11 MAA HL Probability #5
Chinese name: English name: Homeroom: Math Class:

1. A bucket contains 7 red, 3 blue, 2 black, and 1 yellow ball of the same size. A random selection of 5 balls
is taken from the bucket, without replacement.
-

(a) Find the probability that the random selection from the bucket will contain 2 red, 1 blue, and 2
black balls.
(b) Find the probability that the random selection will contain at least 1 red ball.

. . . . . . .P(
a) . . . MR , . . . . black
. . . . .blue ,
, . . . . .)
. . . . . . . black
2
! *2 ! s×n
. . .×. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .S. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
=
=

..............................................................................................

( 4×-1×-5 Exo ) 30
=

. . =. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ✗
. . . . . . . . . . . .✗
. . 30
..........................................................
..............................................................................................
= 0.12
..............................................................................................
. b)
. . . . . PC
. . . . . . . red
no
. . . .red
. . . ., . no . . . .red
. . . . . no
, . . . . . . . .red
,
no . . ., . . . . .ad
no =

tgxgxtq §
. . .). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ✗
..........................
..............................................................................................
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . to
=
......................................

i.
t-÷ = 0
-999

2. Tickets in a raffle are numbered 1 to 100 . A ticket is drawn at random. Suppose A is the event that a
ticket with number less than 45 is drawn, and B is the event that a ticket with number between 40 and
-
55 is drawn. -

(a) Are A and B mutually exclusive events? Explain your answer. And find P(A ∪ B).
(b) Suppose P(A) and P(B) are both non-zero. Explain why events A and B cannot be both independent
and mutually exclusive at the same time.

90 and 95 which and

. . . . . . .No
. . . . .because
. . . . . . . . . . .there . . . . . . . . .between
a)
. . . . . . . .included
. . . . . . . . .in
. . . . . .numbers
. . . . . . .are
. . . . . .events
. . . . .both
.................................................
..................................................................
.

. . . . . . . . . . . .P(
. . .Av
B) 4¥ +1% %
. . . . . . . . .=. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .b)
. . . Mutually
. . . . . . . . .exclusive . . . . . .PLAN
. . . . . .that . . . . . .# o
-

. . . . . . . . . .mean
,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . so . . . . . .events
. . . . .their . . . . . . . .couch . . . . . . . .of. . .card
. . . . . .choice .
¥
..............................................................................................
= affects the probability at anotherpick

= •
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .although
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0. . . .SS . . . . . . . . . . . .they
. . . . .are . . . . . . . . . .exclusive
. . . .mutually ..... . -

..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................

Page 1 of 14
QDHS G11 MAA HL Probability #5

3. Events A and B are independent. Given that P(A ∪ B) = 0.63 and P(B) = 0.36, find P(A).
-

PCAU
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .B)
. . . . . . .DCA
=
. . .+. . .PCB
. . . . .) .....) . . .CAN
.......P . . . . B)
-

..............
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . PCA
. . . . .). . .1-. P(
=
. . . .B)
. . . . . . .PCKJPCB
- . . . . . . .]. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
G
............................................}
O
. . (A)
. . . . .=P . . . . . . . . . put
-

. . . . +. . . 0.36 . . . . . . . . .-31. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
- •

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . P. ./A) -

. . .). . . . .0. . -27

. . . . . .☒. .→. . . .DCA a =
............................
P( A) (1 -

0.36) =
0-27

PCA > =
0.75

4. Two unbiased dice are rolled and the difference between the scores is noted. Using a table of outcomes,
find the probability that the difference between the scores is 3 .

..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................
6 •

.............................................................................................. µYm
. . . . . . . . .oasis
. . . . . . . . .total
"
. . . . . "u
"
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .par
• ....
..............................................................................................
h
%
•

..............................................................................................
=
. . . . . . . . . . . . . .>
................................................................................ .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . .2
................................................................................ •

..............................................................................................
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .~
I I . . . . . .b. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .G
. . . . . . .3
-

5 1
5. Given that P(A) = 0.46, P(B) = 7 and P(A ∪ B)′ = 12 , find P(A ∩ B).

! 11-21-1413 ) Plan ,
)
. . . . . . . . .). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . .Peavy
-

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1-
'
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .PCA . . . . .). . . . . .I . . . . .PCA
. . . . . v13 . . . . .). . . . .P(
. . . b) . . .DCA
. . . . 1- . . . . . . . . B)
-
= -
......................
-
-

'

. . . . . . . .I . +
. . . . . . . . b)
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . DCAV . . .A)
. . .PC . . . .b)
. . . .1-. . .PC .....=
P(A
.................................
-

¥ -
I t 0.46 +
§ =

/76=
Page 2 of 14
QDHS G11 MAA HL Probability #5

6. The table shows data from a survey conducted at five schools to study the rate of smoking among 15 year
old students.

-0
(a) Estimate the probability that a randomly chosen female 15 year old student at school C is a smoker.
(b) Estimate the probability that a randomly chosen 15 year old student at school E is not a smoker.
(c) If a 15 year old is chosen at random from the five schools, estimate the probability that he or she is
a smoker.

a)
'
% . . . . . .d.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .- 27 b) Fa
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .-0.943
-

..........................................
..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................

1) ¥2m
..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................
'
0.63
..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................

7. This table provides data on the daily maximum temperatures in Barcelona during summer.

Page 3 of 14
QDHS G11 MAA HL Probability #5

(a) Estimate the probability that on an August day in Barcelona, the maximum temperature will be:
(a) 35◦ C or higher, (b) less than 30◦ C.
(b) Estimate the probability that on any summer day in Barcelona, the temperature will be 30◦ C or
higher.
(c) It is a 40◦ C summer day in Barcelona. Estimate the probability that the month is July.

.a)
5¥
i. 0 . . . . . . . . . . . . . .b)
}
. . . . . . . . . . . . .•. . .S3
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .= . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .=
................
-

..............................................................................................
v. Gag
..............................................................................................

c)
..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................
Ez -

o.sn
..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................

8. A small hotel in London has kept a record of all room bookings made for the year. The results are
summarised in the two-way table.

(a) Estimate the probability that the next randomly selected booking will be:
i. in the peak season
ii. a single room in the off-peak season
iii. a single or a double room

Page 4 of 14
QDHS G11 MAA HL Probability #5

iv. during the peak season or a family room.

(b) A randomly selected booking is in the off-peak season. Estimate the probability that it is a family
room.
(c) A randomly selected booking is not a single room. Estimate the probability that it is in the peak
season.

22s¥¥a# ¥÷a
ii. iii.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .,. . . . . . . . . . .Loss
i.
. . .a) ........................................
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .total
.........................................
..............................................................................................

☒ ÷ 4%4
..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................

9. The spinners alongside are spun, and the scores are multiplied together.
-

(a) Display the possible results.

(b) Hence find the probability that the result is: (a) 6 (b) less than 5 (c) odd.

É
a) b) it
% § ii.

%iii.

Page 5 of 14
QDHS G11 MAA HL Probability #5

..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................

10. The Venn diagram opposite indicates the types of programs a group of 40 individuals watched on television
-

last night. M represents movies, S represents sports, and D represents dramas.

a) Tta -40
a =3

371-6=90
b =3

% %
3
y b) i. ¥ ii. iii.
,

in
¥ ,
v.
¥0

(a) Given that 10 people watched a movie last night, calculate a and b.
(b) Find the probability that one of these individuals, selected at random, watched:
i. sport
ii. drama and sport
iii. a movie but not sport
iv. drama but not a movie
v. drama or a movie.

Page 6 of 14
QDHS G11 MAA HL Probability #5

..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................

11. (a) If 2 coins are tossed, what is the chance that they both fall heads?
(b) If the 2 coins are tossed 200 times, on how many occasions would you expect them to both fall heads?

. . . .a)
. . . . . .PCH 1-11=21×1-2
. . . . . . .,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . b)
47
...................................................
* =

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .J. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4-
=

{ 260
...................................................................
a =

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1n=.5I
........................................
..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................

12. Tickets numbered 1 to 15 are placed in a hat, and one ticket is chosen at random. Let A be the event
that the number drawn is greater than 11 , and B be the event that the number drawn is less than 8
(a) Are A and B mutually exclusive?
(b) Find: (a) P(A), (b) P(B) , (c) P(A ∪ B).

Page 7 of 14
QDHS G11 MAA HL Probability #5

a) . . . . . . . . . . . b)
. . . . . . . .Yes .
i.
. . .(A)
..........P
=

% . . . .PC
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .ii.
..............................................................................................
Is
. . .b) ¥+75
. . . . . . . . . . .iii.
. . .=
g]
........................
=

..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................

13. One ball is drawn from each of the bags shown.

(a) Draw a tree diagram to illustrate this situation.

(b) Find the probability that:
i. 3 blue balls are drawn
ii. if green balls are drawn from bags Y and Z
iii. at least one blue ball is drawn.

{ }
÷
" b) i. } × × =
%
× ÷ .

1×4×1
ii.
.
=
% %
blue
Y iii. .
I -

(25×1×25)
±
¥;i%
*an
•

%
-

2€:em 213
Page 8 of 14 TED
QDHS G11 MAA HL Probability #5

..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................

14. The diagram shows a simple electrical network. Each symbol represents a switch. All four switches
operate independently, and the probability of each one of them being closed is p.
-

(a) In terms of p, find the probability that the current flows from A to B.
(b) (Challenge) Find the least value of p for which the probability of current flow is at least 0.5.

. . . . .Dlswituh
. . . . . . . . . .) =p
...............................................................................
..............................................................................................

a)
P( . . . . . ., . .close
14--0-5
"

. . . . . . .close . . . . . . . . close
, ,
. . . . . .). . . . . . . . . . . . . b)
. . . . . . . . . .close =p ..........................................
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14-0.5=0
..................................
"
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .f . . . . . . .{
. . . . . . . 0. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-

..............................................................................................
425 ( ¥ )2=o -

..............................................................................................
. . . . .¥
. . .>. 42T¥
(
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .p2 . . . . . . . . .)=o
-

...............
p2=fz ,
p
"
# -

⇐ [p ¢-12]
2- I
"
p =

1=2-4
1=0-84
15. The probability of rain tomorrow is 15 . If it rains, Mudlark will start favourite in the horse race, with
1
probability 2 of winning. If it is fine, Mudlark only has a 1 in 20 chance of winning.

Page 9 of 14
QDHS G11 MAA HL Probability #5

(a) Display the sample space of possible results for the horse race on a tree diagram.
(b) Hence determine the probability that Mudlark will win tomorrow.

. . . a) . . .". .Ytp( . . . . ,. . w
"""
. . . . ". . "
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .". . . . . . ↳ . . ." "
. . . . . . . . . .Fine . . ,. ,. . . . . . . . . .
" =
13×1-2
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .". . .". . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . + ¥xÉo
.........................
..............................................................................................
✗2) Losh =
+ 1×2
. .My
. . . . .,+.,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
v5 25×2
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ."
. ."
.....................................................
415
Finery
..............................................................................................
. . . . . . . .Latins
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19/20
f
.........................................................
..............................................................................................

16. Three bags contain different numbers of blue and red marbles.
A bag is selected using a die which has three A faces, two B faces, and one C face. One marble is then

EE
randomly selected from the bag.
-
Determine the probability that the marble is:

2- blue

÷É÷÷
(a) blue
(b) red

blue

d)
(7*23)+(7×15)
his rod

(
t.az#b1w
= +
-367
b) ( % "} d

)t(%x§)+ , -6×3 , "S

"

=
0.633

Page 10 of 14
QDHS G11 MAA HL Probability #5

..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................

17. Urn A contains 2 red and 3 blue marbles, and urn B contains 4 red and 1 blue marble. Peter selects an
urn by tossing a coin, and takes a marble from that urn.
(a) Determine the probability that the marble is red.
(b) Given that the marble is red, what is the probability that it came from urn B ?

:
. . . . . . . .near
'+ A
€¥
-

......................................................................................
tail B
-

. . . . reel
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .I ................................
. . . . . . . . . . ). . . . . . PIT
☐
. . . . .PCHIR
. . .a) .). . . . . . . . . . .b)
btw
+
. . . . . . . .R
, ..................................................

-1×3-+2×7 # =L
..............................................................................................
-

..............................................................................................

2¥
?
=
..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................

18. (a) A and B are independent events. Prove that A′ and B ′ are also independent events.
(b) Suppose P(A ∩ B) = 0.1 and P (A ∩ B ′ ) = 0.4. Given that A and B are independent, find P (A ∪ B ′ )
9
(c) Suppose P(C) = 20 , P(D | C) = 14 , and P (D | C ′ ) = 15
i. Find P(D).
ii. Are C and D independent events? Justify your answer.
(d) What can be deduced if A ∩ B and A ∪ B are independent events?

Page 11 of 14
QDHS G11 MAA HL Probability #5
PCANB) PLAN 134=0.9
?
-0.1 ,

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . b) . . . . . . . . . . ./. . . . .PCA
'

. . . . .P( . . . PCAUB . . . . . . . ). . . . .KANDY

'
. . .a) . . . .An . . . . . . .PCA
. . . . . B) =
. . . . .)•PCB) . . . )+PCB
=
... -

?
' ' ' '

.KA
'
. . . .B. . . . . . . . . . . =P
. . . . .and . . . . .(A) •
. . . . .). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .PCAJTPCBJ
. . . . . . .PCB . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.4
=
. -

independent p(
" "
" * " +
A)
" "" " ""

( I
. . . (. .B.).). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
are
. . . .(
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A)
'
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=
-

. .1 . .=p 0 = s + PCB
. )

|
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .=/
. . . . . . PCB
-

. . . .+. .I' .(A)

. . . . .). . . p. .(A) . . . ). . . . . . . . . . p(
. . .PCB . . .=P
. . . B)
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. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .=P -

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+
. . . . . . . PCA
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1
. . .). 1). .(B) =
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-
-

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .D(. .A)
-

. . . . . .0.5
................
=

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0.5+1
....... -
DCA ) oh

)=§o =¥
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d)
=

C)
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c)
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}
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)=Dy
I
2 . . . . . . . . . . .DCDRC . . . . . . . .PCDNC
. . . . . . /. c.)
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'

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .PCD
,
=
....................................
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"¥+±÷%÷÷;
. . . . . . . . . . . . . .ii. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .are
....
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E. 'e 's
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .=P
=
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§
.

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. . . . . . . . . . . . .PLD
. . .]
-_
=

. . . . . . . . . ). . . . . .DLD
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>
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .PCDIC . )=
}
-

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .ope
§ ,D
-

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. . . . . PCDNC . . . .)=P(
. . . . . D)
'

. . . .Dnc
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.. NOT

⑧ ⑧ hdepondent
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .' . . . . . . . .

d)
'

..............................................................................................
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .-
.................

) P(
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Art
/ . . . . . . . B)
. . . . . . . . . . . . PLAN
. . . . . . . . . AUB
..............................................................................................
__
.................................

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . PLAN
. . . . . . . . . .B)
=P ¥f;D
...............................................
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"¥÷u,¥
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .PCANB
. . . . . . . .). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
"

.
: PCAU B) =
I PCANB)≠o
,

0 To do so, he first randomly selects one of the paths

19. Your lecturer, Johnny, wants to walk from A to B.
to C, D, or E. Next he selects randomly one of the possible paths at that moment (so if he first selected
the path to E, he can either select the path to A or the path to F), etc. What is the probability that he
will reach B after two selections?

Page 12 of 14
QDHS G11 MAA HL Probability #5

④ From Atc , Bore

¥ 43 ②
µ,

Y} 0
y,

0
. . . . . .PCB
. . . . . i. . . . . . .). . -
(15×12)+(5×3) (5×0)
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .+
..............................................................................................
..........................................

1-6+1-9
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .to
........................................................

%
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .=. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
10.28

20. (Monty Hall Problem, Challenge)

The Monty Hall problem is a mathematical paradox first posed by Steve Selvin to the American Statisti-
cian in 1975. It became famous after its publication in Parade magazine in 1990. The problem is named
after the original host of the American television game show Let’s Make a Deal, on which the problem is
loosely based.
The problem as posed in Parade reads:
Suppose you’re on a game show, and you’re given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car;
behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what’s behind the doors,
opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, ‘Do you want to switch your choice
to door No. 2?’ Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?
Great
others ( or
( or
,
other , goats

(a) Draw a tree diagram to represent the problem. Let C represent the event that a contestant’s choice
is correct, and C ′ represent the event that the choice is incorrect.
(b) Find the probability that:
(1) the contestant’s first choice has the car
(2) the contestant’s second choice has the car given they decide to change their guess.
-

(c) Suppose this game is being played in front of a live studio audience. One of the audience members
arrives late, so when they enter the room, they see two closed doors and the third (incorrect) door
open. They do not know the contestant’s original choice.

Page 13 of 14
QDHS G11 MAA HL Probability #5

(1) If this audience member is asked to choose a door, what is the probability they will choose the
one with the car?
(2) Explain why the contestant has an advantage over this audience member.

. . a)
b) § 2-3×1-2 }
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .i.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .ii.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
=

¥¥⇐:
..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................

animism
..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................
iii.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .112
=/ ↳ E)
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (3×1-2)
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .+
✗ .....................
...................

=¥±¥:
..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................
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. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .¥
=

................................

1--1-2
..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................
..............................................................................................
iii.

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Page 14 of 14