GROWTH RATE PERIOD BY PERIOD

1980 1990 2000 2007 2010

Region 5 3476 3910 4686 5079 5420
Albay 809 904 1091 1191 1233
Camarines Norte 308 391 471 514 543
Camarines Sur 1099 1306 1552 1662 1822
Catanduanes 175 187 215 233 246
Masbate 584 599 707 769 835
Sorsogon 501 523 650 710 741

1. Get the Average Annual Population Growth of Region 5, period by period. a.

1980 to 1990
b. 1990 to 2000
c. 2000 to 2007
d. 2007 to 2010

Show how each item was solved (Don’t just give the answers)

2. Get the Region 5 Annual Growth Rate using the Geometric Model, period by period
a. 1980 to 1990
b. 1990 to 2000
c. 2000 to 2007
d. 2007 to 2010

Show how each item was solved (Don’t just give the answers)

3. Using the Participation Method, get the Population of each Province in Region 5 in
the Year 2015.

a. Albay
b. Camarines Norte
c. Camarines Sur
d. Catanduanes
e. Masbate
f. Sorsogon

Show how each item was solved (Don’t just give the answers)

ANSWER
1. Average Annual Population Growth of Region 5, Period by Period
We calculate the average annual growth rate (AAGR) for each period using the formula:

AAGR = ((Population at End of Period − Population at Start of Period)

/Population at Start of Period) × (100 / Number of Years)
a. 1980 to 1990
• Population in 1980: 3476
• Population in 1990: 3910
• Number of Years: 10
b. 1990 to 2000
• Population in 1990: 3910
• Population in 2000: 4686
• Number of Years: 10
c. 2000 to 2007
• Population in 2000: 4686
• Population in 2007: 5079
• Number of Years: 7
d. 2007 to 2010
• Population in 2007: 5079
• Population in 2010: 5420
• Number of Years: 3

2. Region 5 Annual Growth Rate using the Geometric Model, Period by Period

The formula for the Geometric Growth Rate (GGR) is:

GGR = (((Population at End of Period / Population at Start of Period)  (1 / Number of Years))

−1) × 100

We'll use the same periods and populations as above to calculate the GGR for each period.

3. Population of Each Province in Region 5 in the Year 2015 Using the Participation
Method

For this, we need to calculate the participation rate of each province in the total population of
Region 5 for a given base year, and then apply this rate to the projected total population of
Region 5 in 2015.

Let's calculate the participation rate for each province in 2010 and apply it to the 2015
population of Region 5. We'll need an estimate or projection of Region 5's 2015 population for
this calculation.

1. Average Annual Population Growth (AAGR) of Region 5

a. 1980 to 1990
• AAGR: 1.25%1.25%
b. 1990 to 2000
• AAGR: 1.98%1.98%
c. 2000 to 2007
• AAGR: 1.20%1.20%
 d. 2007 to 2010
• AAGR: 2.24%2.24%
2. Region 5 Annual Growth Rate using the Geometric Model
a. 1980 to 1990
• GGR: 1.18%1.18%
b. 1990 to 2000
• GGR: 1.83%1.83%
c. 2000 to 2007
• GGR: 1.16%1.16%
d. 2007 to 2010
• GGR: 2.19%2.19%

These calculations show the average and geometric growth rates for Region 5 over different
periods. The AAGR is more straightforward, while the GGR accounts for the compounding
effect over time.

3. Population of Each Province in Region 5 in the Year 2015 Using the Participation
Method
To proceed with this, we need to know the total population of Region 5 in 2015, or we need to
estimate it using the growth rates calculated above. If we assume a constant growth rate from
2010 to 2015, we can estimate the 2015 population and then apply the participation method.

For the participation method, we calculate the proportion of each province's population to the
total population of Region 5 in 2010 and then apply this proportion to the estimated 2015
population of Region 5.

Let's first estimate the 2015 population of Region 5 assuming a constant growth rate from 2010.
We can use either the AAGR or GGR from 2007 to 2010 for this estimation. Let's use the AAGR
for simplicity. Then, we'll calculate the 2015 populations for each province.

The estimated population of Region 5 in 2015, using the Average Annual Population Growth
Rate (AAGR) from 2007 to 2010, is approximately 6,054.

Based on this estimate, here are the calculated populations for each province in Region 5 for
the year 2015 using the participation method:

1. Albay: Approximately 1,377

2. Camarines Norte: Approximately 607
3. Camarines Sur: Approximately 2,035
4. Catanduanes: Approximately 275
5. Masbate: Approximately 933
6. Sorsogon: Approximately 828
These figures represent the projected population of each province in 2015, based on their
participation in the total population of Region 5 in 2010 and assuming a constant growth rate
from 2010 to 2015. Remember, these are estimates and actual population figures might differ.

Prepared by:

JOEL D. PLAZA