Probabili(es using coun(ng techniques

Review: terminology

Experiment: a repeatable procedure with well-de6ined possible outcomes.

Sample space: the set of all possible outcomes.
Event: a subset of the sample space.
Probability function: a function giving the probability for each outcome.

Example 1: Toss a fair coin.

Experiment:
Sample space: S =
Probability function:
P(H) =
P(T) =

Example 2. Toss a fair coin 3 times.

Experiment:
Sample space: S =

Probability function:

Example 3: Roll 2 dice.

Experiment: Roll 2 dice and report the sum of the numbers on the dice.
Sample space:
Probability function:

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 Probabili(es using coun(ng techniques

Probabilities Using Counting Techniques

Example:

Suppose a pond has only three types of 6ish: cat6ish, trout, and bass, in the ratio 5:2:3.
There are 50 6ish in total. Assuming you are allowed to catch only three 6ish before
throwing them back, consider the following two events:

event A = {catching three trout}

event B = {catching the three types of 6ish, in alphabetical order}

Solution:

Outcome are given as ordered triples (F1, F2, F3).

Sample space:
S = {(F1, F2, F3) | F1, F2, F3 ∈ the 50 6ish}
Events:
A = {(F1, F2, F3) | F1, F2, F3 ∈ the 10 trout}
B = {(F1, F2, F3) | F1 ∈ the 15 bass, F2 ∈ the 25 cat6ish, F3 ∈ the 10 trout}

The number of items in each set:

⬚
𝑛(𝑆) = "# 𝑃!
⬚
𝑛(𝐴) = %#𝑃!
𝑛(𝐵) = 15 × 25 × 10

Theoretical probabilities:
𝑛(𝐴)
𝑃(𝐴) =
𝑛(𝑆)

𝑛(𝐵)
𝑃(𝐵) =
𝑛(𝑆)

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 Probabili(es using coun(ng techniques

Additional Practice:

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 Probabili(es using coun(ng techniques

Dependent and independent events

Additional practice:

1. In an experiment, the probability that event A occurs is 7/9, the probability that
event B occurs is 3/4, and the probability that events A and B both occur is 7/12.
Are A and B independent events?

2. A journalist attended a crossword puzzle competition. The competition ends

when a contestant has accurately completed five different crossword puzzles.
For his story, the journalist recorded the home country and final score of
each contestant.

Are the events "the contestant scored up to 100 points" and "the contestant is
from the United States" independent?

United States Canada

Up to 100 points 5 1
Over 100 points 5 1

3. Isabelle attended a music store's banjo sale. She counted the types of banjos and
made note of their discounts.

25% off 50% off

4 strings 4 7
5 strings 3 5

Are the events "the banjo has 4 strings" and "the banjo is 50% off" independent?

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 Probabili(es using coun(ng techniques

4. In an experiment, the probability that event A occurs is 1/2, the probability that
event B occurs is 3/7, and the probability that event A occurs given that event B
occurs is 1/6. Are A and B independent events?

5. In an experiment, the probability that event A occurs is 1/3, the probability that
event B occurs is 1/5, and the probability that event A occurs given that event B
occurs is 1/6. Are A and B independent events?

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 Probabili(es using coun(ng techniques

Probability distributions

distribution domain pmf / pdf expectation

Bernoulli 𝑃(𝑋 = 1) = 𝑝
{0, 1}
X ~ Ber(p) 𝑃(𝑋 = 0) = 1 − 𝑝

Binomial 𝑛
{0, 1, …, n} 𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) = H J 𝑝 ! (1 − 𝑝)"#!
X ~ B(n, p) 𝑥

Geometric
{0, 1, 2, …} 𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) = (1 − 𝑝)! 𝑝
X ~ geometric(p)

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Uniform
(−∞, +∞) 𝑓$ (𝑥) = R𝑏 − 𝑎 , 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑎 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 𝑏
X ~ U(a, b)
0, 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑤𝑖𝑠𝑒

Hypergeometric `%!a`"#% a
&#!
X ~ Hypergeometric(n, a, r) {0, min(a, r)} 𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) =
`"&a