Road accident Prediction Using Data Mining Techniques
Anurag S Tippa [MY.SC.U3BCA21133]
ABSTRACT
This study uses a variety of data sources,
such as past accident reports,
meteorological data, and traffic patterns,
to anticipate road accidents using data
mining techniques.
The study uses machine learning methods
for feature selection and thorough
analysis, including decision trees and
neural networks.
To maintain data quality, the dataset is
meticulously preprocessed to handle
outliers and missing values.
Complex interactions among contributing
components can be understood through
the use of advanced analytics and
visualisation technologies.
Real-time and historical data are used to
thoroughly evaluate and validate the
model's performance.
By enabling proactive accident risk
minimization, the suggested predictive
model functions as an efficient early
warning system for law enforcement and
motorists.
The study improves overall road safety by
assisting with policy formation, traffic
management, and urban planning.
The purpose of this study is to offer a
useful tool for predicting and preventing
accidents, ultimately reducing their
frequency and severity, saving lives, and
minimizing societal and economic impact.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
We are grateful to MRS.KEERTHIKA. K
and Dr.Narendran S M for encouraging
discussions about the topic. We acknowledge
Amrita Vishwa Vidyapeetham, Mysuru
Campus
CONTACT
Name:ANURAG S TIPPA
Organization Name:AMRITA VISHWA
VIDYAPEETHAM, MYSURU CAMPUS
E-mail: anuragtippa757@gmail.com
phone no:7892817515
Thilakesh A [MY.SC.U3BCA21106]
Mahadev Prasad M [MY.SC.U3BCA21124]
Gowtham M [MY.SC.U3BCA21104]
INTRODUCTION
Road accidents are a global concern, causing loss of life,
injuries, and economic costs. Data mining techniques,
incorporating data analysis and machine learning, offer
a powerful means to predict and prevent accidents.
This approach involves analyzing historical accident
data to identify patterns and risk factors,
In India, where road safety challenges are pronounced,
the adoption of data mining for accident prediction is on
the rise. Government agencies, including the Ministry of
Road Transport and Highways, utilize predictive
models to inform safety programs. Collaborative efforts
involving universities, tech companies, and NGOs are
actively contributing to road safety improvement.
The motivations in India stem from high accident rates,
substantial economic impact, limited resources, urban
congestion, and the need for infrastructure
development. Predictive models aid in optimizing
resource allocation, supporting efficient traffic
management, informing infrastructure projects, and
influencing policy changes. Overall, data-driven accident
prediction contributes to public safety, reduces
economic burdens, and fosters responsible road use
through awareness campaigns.
METHODS AND MATERIALS
Decision tree: When proposing to use the ID3 algorithm
for traffic accident prediction, it is important to describe
the specific objectives, methods and expected results of
the study or project. Below is an example of a proposed
action plan for using the ID3 algorithm in traffic
accident prediction.
1)Vehicle Crash Dataset Development
2)Data processing
3)Feature Selection
4)Use of the ID3 algorithm
5)Tree construction
6)Model Evaluation
Random forest:-When considering the use of the
Random Forest algorithm for traffic accident prediction,
it is important to describe the specific study objectives,
methods, and expected results. Below is a visual example
of the proposed work using the Random Forest
algorithm for traffic accident prediction.
1)Development of a complete data set
2)Feature Selection and Engineering
3)Implement Random Forest Algorithm
4)Hyper parameter Tuning
5)Evaluation
6)Spatial and Temporal Analysis
7)Interpretability and Feature importance
8)Compare with current model
9)Implementation and design
Supervisor:Mrs.Keerthika.K Assistant Professor, Computer
Science Engineering, School of Arts and Science.
RESULTS
Decision tree:
1. The study aimed to predict if Karnataka districts would
have over 750 total accidents using a decision tree
classifier.
2. Features included total accidents, fatalities, severe
injuries, minor injuries, and total injuries, with 'Vehicle to
Vehicle Total Accidents' as the target variable.
3. The decision tree classified districts as 'False' for
accidents ≤750 and 'True' for accidents >750, visualized
in tree.
4. It listed districts with over 750 accidents, using this
threshold as a baseline for identifying patterns leading to
high accident rates.
5. The tree's visualization highlighted key features and
thresholds used for classification, aiding in understanding
factors contributing to higher accident rates.
6. This information helps in targeted interventions and
preventive measures. The Decision Tree method had an
accuracy of 51%, the lowest in the experiment.
Random Forest:-
1. Used attributes: "Vehicle to vehicle total injured" and
"Vehicle to animal persons minor injury."
2. Achieved a notable accuracy of 91%.
3. Demonstrated high efficacy in analyzing and predicting
factors associated with road accidents.
4. Highlights Random Forest's robust performance and
suitability for complex predictive tasks in road safety
analysis.
Figure 2.Random forest
Figure 1. Decision Tree
tree
Figure 3. Comparison of Two
Algorithm
Figure 4.Confusion Matrix
DISCUSSION
Random Forest outperformed Decision Tree with 91%
accuracy compared to Decision Tree's 61%.
- Random Forest's superior performance demonstrates its
robust predictive capabilities.
- The findings highlight Random Forest as a preferred
choice for tasks needing high precision and accuracy.
- The results underscore Decision Tree's limitations in
capturing complex patterns and nuances within the dataset.
CONCLUSIONS
Conclusion:
- The study uses Decision Tree and Random Forest algorithms to
analyze road accident data.
- Random Forest achieves 91% accuracy, outperforming Decision
Tree.
- A comprehensive dataset from historical reports, meteorological
data, and traffic patterns is utilized.
- Advanced data mining techniques ensure thorough analysis and
precise predictions.
- The model serves as an early warning system, aiding accident
prevention, policy-making, traffic management, and urban
planning.
- Real-time and historical data integration enhances the model's
value for law enforcement and motorists.
- Data mining techniques significantly improve road safety and
reduce societal and economic impacts.
Future Scope:
- Further research can explore factors like vehicle interactions,
injuries, and animal-related incidents.
- Predictive analytics can forecast accident likelihood and severity.
- The dataset can guide infrastructure development and urban
planning by identifying high-risk areas.
- Insights can help policymakers create targeted safety regulations.
- Public awareness campaigns can promote safer driving practices
based on common accident scenarios.
REFERENCE
1) Indraja Smitha Tabitha Paul Chandini;(2018);A Road Accident Prediction
Model Using Data Mining Techniques;The papers suggest the use of data
mining technologies and algorithms for developing predictive models for road
accidents in India and other regions.
[2] Mrs.Kavitha Bai A.SAishwaryaThankchanE Si Krupa;(2020 may);Road
accident analysis using data miningtechniques ; The paper discuss the results of
using data mining techniques to analyse road accidents in India and also the
accidents which might occur in the future.
[3] Liling Li, Sharad Shrestha, Gongzhu Hu;(2021);Analysis of road traffic fatal
accidents using data mining techniques;Association rules among variables were
discovered using the Apriori algorithm