2024 CFA Level 2 Module - Videos - Workbook

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Module Videos

Workbook
2024 Level II CFA®

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2024 LEVEL II CFA® MODULE VIDEOS WORKBOOK
©2023 Kaplan, Inc. All rights reserved.

Published in 2023 by Kaplan, Inc.

These materials may not be copied without written permission from the author. The unauthorized duplication of these
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Contents
Quantitative Methods (Readings 1–4)..............................................................1
Economics (Readings 5–7).............................................................................93
Financial Statement Analysis (Readings 8–14)..............................................141
Corporate Issuers (Readings 15–18).............................................................351
Equity Valuation (Readings 19–24)..............................................................425
Fixed Income (Readings 25–29)...................................................................565
Derivatives (Readings 30–31)......................................................................659
Alternative Investments (Readings 32–34)...................................................733
Portfolio Management (Readings 35–40).....................................................791
Ethical and Professional Standards (Readings 41–43)..................................885

iii

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Quantitative Methods

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2 Quantitative Methods

Fixed Income Quantitative


Investments Methods

Quantitative Methods

Multiple Regression
Basics of Multiple Regression
and Underlying Assumptions

LOS 8.a Formulate/Determine


Multiple Regression

Multiple Regression
 Basic idea: Linear relationship with more than one independent
variable

Dependent variable Independent variables

Yi = b 0 + b 1 X 1 i + b 2 X 2 i + … + b k X k i + ε i

Slope coefficients
Intercept
© Kaplan, Inc. Error term 2

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Quantitative Methods 3

LOS 8.b Interpret


Multiple Regression

Interpreting p-Values
 Another way to test H0 (always agrees with t-test)
 If p-value < α, then reject H0
 Example: If α = 5% (i.e., a 95% confidence level) and the
calculated p-value = 0.07, we fail to reject H0
 p-value can be viewed as smallest significance level (α
α) at which
we can reject H0

© Kaplan, Inc. 3

LOS 8.b Interpret


Multiple Regression

Example: Interpreting p-Values

Variable bi Sbi t-stat p-value

b0 –11.6% 1.657% –7.0 <0.0001

PR 0.25 0.032 7.8 <0.0001

YCS 0.14 0.28 0.5 0.62

 b0 and PR are significant (high t-stat, low p-value) while YCS is


insignificant (low t-stat and high p-value)
© Kaplan, Inc. 4

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4 Quantitative Methods

LOS 8.a Formulate/Determine


Multiple Regression

Formulate Regression Equation


 Suppose we think S&P 500 10-year real earnings growth (EG10) is
explained by:*
 Trailing dividend payout ratio of index (PR)
 Yield curve slope (YCS)
 Example: Formulate a multiple regression equation to describe this
relationship
*Adapted from Arnott and Asness (2003)

© Kaplan, Inc. 5

LOS 8.a Formulate/Determine


Multiple Regression

Formulate Regression Equation

EG10 = b0 + b1×PR + b2×YCS + ε


where:
EG10 = 10-year real earnings growth in S&P 500
PR = trailing dividend payout ratio of index
YCS = yield difference between 10-year T-bond and 3-month T-bill

© Kaplan, Inc. 6

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Quantitative Methods 5

LOS 8.a Formulate/Determine


Multiple Regression

Formulate Regression Equation


 Regress EG10 on independent variables
 46 annual observations (n = 46)
 Two independent “X” variables (k = 2)

© Kaplan, Inc. 7

LOS 8.a Formulate/Determine


Multiple Regression

Regression Output:
Frequent Starting Point for Exam Questions

Variable bi Sbi

b0 –11.6% 1.657%

PR 0.25 0.032

YCS 0.14 0.28

© Kaplan, Inc. 8

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6 Quantitative Methods

LOS 8.b Interpret/Determine


Multiple Regression

Interpreting Coefficients
 EG10 will equal –11.6% if the two independent variables are both
zero.
 All else constant:
 1% increase in PR = 0.25% increase in EG10.
 1% increase in YCS = 0.14% increase in EG10.

© Kaplan, Inc. 9

LOS 8.f Explain


Multiple Regression

Assumptions of Multiple Regression


 Linear relationship between Y and X
 No exact linear relationship among X’s
 Expected value of error term = 0
 Variance of error term is constant
 Errors not serially correlated
 Error term normally distributed

These are related to violations (see later)


© Kaplan, Inc. 10

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Quantitative Methods 7

LOS 8.f Explain


Multiple Regression

Normal Q-Q Plot


 A normal Q-Q plot (usually called a Q-Q plot) compares a variable’s
distribution to a normal distribution.
 This helps us to visualize the distribution.
 The Q-Q plot is useful for exploring whether the residuals are
normally distributed.
 This is a key assumption of linear regression.

© Kaplan, Inc. 11

LOS 8.f Explain


Multiple Regression

Normal Q-Q Plot Example


 In this example, the
regression model error
term is close to being
normally distributed
 Though a handful of
outliers lie above or
below the theoretical
range

CFA® Program Curriculum 2023 Level 2, Volume 1, page 17 12


© Kaplan, Inc.

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8 Quantitative Methods

Fixed Income Quantitative


Investments Methods

Quantitative Methods

Multiple Regression
Evaluating Regression Model Fit
and Interpreting Model Results

LOS 8.i Evaluate


Multiple Regression

ANOVA Table

Source of Variation Df Sum of Squares Mean Square

Regression
k RSS MSR
(explained)

Error (unexplained) n – k – 1 SSE MSE

Total n–1 SST

These columns vertically sum 2


© Kaplan, Inc.

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