Mumbai North West: Amol Kirtikar vs Ravindra Waikar (SHS)

Won: Ravindra Waikar (SHS)

Votes : 452644
Lost :Amol Kirtikar
Votes : 452596
Votes : 452644
Margin : 48
Total Votes : 954939

Reason :
1. Amol Kirtikar had led from Jogeshwari East by11291. Andheri East
Vidhan Sabha Constituency Ravindra Waikar had a lead from Rutuja
Latake Constituency.
2. In this Lok Sabha Constituency NOTA was third highest with 15000.
Three independent candidates had similar symbols as Shiv Sena UBT
which caused confusion at the end.
3. VBA candidate Parmeshvar Ranashur secured 10,052 votes .
4. The impact of Khichdi Scam during Covid- 19 and also Sanjay Nirupam
and his involvement in breaking votes in the constituency. Marathi Manus
supported Ravindra Waikar due to his previous terms as a MLA.

Kalyan : Vaishali Darekar (SHS) vs Shrikant Shinde (SHS)

Won : Shrikant Shinde (SHS)
Votes :589636
Margin : 2,09,144
Lost : Vaishali Darekar-
Votes: 380492
Total Votes : 1045736

Reason :
1. Vaishali Darekar was a weak candidate in front of Shrikant Shinde a two
time MP, the bastion of Shiv Sena with local development work done by
Shrinkant Shinde. Shrikant Shinde secured votes on the basis of
development and Narendra Modi.
 2. The lack of representation in 6 Vidhan Sabha of Kalyan impacted Shiv
Sena UBT. NCP SP worked in Mumbra- Kalwas region which helped to
gain votes.
3. INC and NCP SP did not work in other areas of the constituency. Shrikant
Shinde worked as an MP from the last 10 years, the goodwill he earned
throughout those years.
4. MNS MLA Raju Patil supported Shrikant Shinde in Kalyan Rural.
Vaishali Darekar failed to gain sympathy of voters and also failed to
attract women voters, where they are the highest.
5. Shiv Sena UBT organisation leaders from Dombivli shifted to Shiv Sena
(Shinde), INC 8 Corporators shifted to Shiv Sena during the election
period.

Jalgaon : Smita Wagh ( BJP) vs Karan Pawar (SHS)

Won: Smita Wagh
Votes : 674428
Lost : Karan Pawar
Votes: 422834
Total : 349867
Margin : 251594
Total Votes : 1169553

Reason :
1. Karan Pawar was a last moment candidate from BJP and the shift from
Umesh Patil from BJP to Shiv Sena due to high anti incumbency.
2. Karan Pawar had very less outreach compared to Smita Wagh. Pehel
Khandesh cha vikas mah Deshacha Vikas.
3. The divide of Rural voters towards Karan Pawar was effective but Urban
voters favoured the National Narrative of BJP of Ram Mandir, Article
370.
4. The Maratha vote divide also impacted the whole campaign. Shiv Sena
(UBT) symbol did not reach everyone in the constituency.
5. Farmers supported Shiv Sena UBT, but the effectiveness of other alliance
groups also impacted the results. Congress and NCP were less active in
this area and their presence was very less.
 6. Karan Pawar failed to connect with all the voters across the constituency,
he is popular in some parts of the constituency, but conversion of votes
were impacted.
7. Umesh Patil couldn't make an impact and convince voters to vote for
Karan Pawar.

Palghar: Dr. Hemant Vishnu Savara (BJP) vs Bharti Kamdi

Won : Dr. Hemant Vishnu Savara BJP
Votes : 417938
Margin : 183306
Won : Bharti Kamdi
Votes : 601244
Margin : 183306
Total Votes : 1376074
Reason : 1) Vishnu Savara is one of the most popular leaders from Palghar.
2) Bharti Kamdi lacked people’s support in their favour.
3) The symbol Mashal couldn’t reach every one
4) Semi Urban Constituency with no hyper local sentiment which will benefit
Shiv Sena UBT
5) VBA took a lot of votes in this constituency.

Thane : Ranjan Vichare SHS (UBT) vs Narshe Mahske SS

Won : Narshe Mahske SS
Margin: 217011
Votes : 734231
Lost: Ranjan Vichare
Votes:
Total Votes : 954939
Reason : 1) Ranjan Vichare, a Shiv Senaik strong candidate and a two time MP,
contributed towards the growth of Shiv Sena in Thane district. Thane Lok Sabha
was very important for Eknath Shinde and Udhav Thackery. The fight became
tough for Ranjan Vichare due to Eknath Shinde as it was the bastion for Shiv
Sena. 2) The urban voters supported Narendra Modi throughout Thane so
Naresh Mahske got a lead and the anti-incumbency factor of Ranjan Vichare led
to his loss. 3) Eknath Shinde now can continue the legacy of Anand Dighe in
Thane. 4) Marwadi, Sindhi Community supported Narendra Modi and voted in
favour of Naresh Mahske. The organisational support of Shiv Sena in Thane
really helped Naresh Mashke to have a huge lead. 5) The fight was one sided
but shifted due to the personal connection of Eknath Shinde. Shiv Sena UBT
lacked MLA from Thane Lok Sabha Constituency. BJP and Shiv Sena (Shinde)
had huge support of Municipal Corporation in Thane, Navi Mumbai, Mira
Bhayandar increased the chances for Narshe Mahske. Shiv Sena Shinde spent a
lot of money in rural areas of Thane.

Raigad :

Anant Geete (SS - UBT) VS Sunil Tatkare (NCP - AP)

Won : Sunil Tatkare NCP ( AP) 508352 (50.17%)
Loss : Anant Geete Vote: 425568 (42%)
Margin : 82784
Total Votes : 1013272

Reasoning :
1. ओबीसी आणि दलित-मस्लि ु म मतदारांचे समीकरण साधन ू सन ु ील तटकरे यांनी
विजय निश्चित केला
2. सनु ील तटकरे यांची प्रत्येक मतदारसंघात चांगली संघटन, पकड आणि लाभार्थी
3. पक्ष संघटना आणि महायत ु ी मळ
ु े चांगले बळ मिळाले शिवसेना विभागली
असल्याने स्थानिक नेतत्ृ व विस्कळित झालेले दिसन ू येते आणि शिद ं े गटाने
तटकरे यांच्या प्रचार प्रसार करण्यात मदत केली
4. हा मतदारसंघ स्थानिक narration व सन ु ील तटकरे यांच्या नेतत्ृ वाखाली एक
संघ राहिलेला दिसन ू आला
5. पक्ष फुटी आणि गद्दारी, सहानभ ु त
ू ी सारखे विषय येथे जास्त वापरले गेले नाही
किंवा अनंत गीते नी (आणि पक्ष संघटनेन)ं चांगल्या प्रकारे त्याचा प्रचार प्रसार
केला नाही त्याचा तोटा आघाडी ला झाला
6. महायत ु ी कडून पैसा मोठ्या प्रमाणात वापरला गेला तर शिवसेना येथे कमी पडले
7. मोदी, महायत ु ी, सन
ु ील तटकरे आणि स्थानिक समीकरणे हे workout झाले

Sindhudurg - Ratnagiri :
Vinayak Raut (SS - UBT) VS Narayana Rane (BJP)
Won : Narayan Rane (BJP) 448514 (49.05%)
Loss : Vinayak Raut (SS -UBT) 400656 (43.83%)
Margin : 47858
Total Votes : 914038
Reasoning :
1. पक्ष फुटीचा फटका UBT गटाला झाला असन ू स्थानिक पातळीवर संघटना कमी
पडलेली दिसन ू आली .
2. मोदी + राणे + महायत ु ी समीकरण workout झाले .
3. राणे विषयी जण सामन्यात एक भावनिक वातावरण (स्थानिक आणि कामाचा
माणस ू म्हणन
ु राणे कुटुंबाला पाहिले जाते) .
4. प्रत्येक मतदारसंघात महायत ु ी ची ताकत असल्याने, सावंतवाडी दीपक केसरकर,
रत्नागिरी उदय सामंत.

Hathankagle : Dhairyasheel Mane SHS vs Satyajeet Patil SHS (UBT)

Won : Dhairyasheel Mane
Votes : 520190
Margin : 13426
Lost : Satyajeet Patil
Votes : 506764
Margin : 13426
Total Votes : 1296024

Reasoning :
1. उमेदवार + महायत ु ी + मोदी/योगी +कारखानदार समीकरण
2. राजू शेट्टी यांना पसंती पण मर्यादित नेतत्ृ व आणि काम असल्याने + शेतकरी
आणि कारखानदार संघर्षात त्यांचा बळी गेला असल्याचे दिसन ू येते
3. शिवसेना (UBT) कडून उमेदवार तगडा दिला नसल्याने (अनोळखी उमेदवार -
Satyajeet Surudkar Patil) मतदारांना आकर्षित करू शकला नाही
4. धैर्यशील माने विषयी Anti Incumbency होती पण पर्यायी उमेदवार नसल्याने
लोकानी धैर्यशील मानेंना चार शिव्या दिल्या पण मत ही केल.
5. हिन्दत्ु व + मराठा workout झालेल दिसन ू आले
6. अपक्ष उमेदवार (प्रकाश आवाडे + राजेश पाटील + विनय कोरे ) यांची महत्वपर्ण
ू
भमि
ू का आणि मदत ही
 7. शेवटच्या आठवड्यात एकनाथ शिद ं े आणि श्रीकांत शिद
ं े नी मतदारसंघ बांधणी
करून सर्व समीकरणे आणि रणनीति चा उपयोग करून (पैसा, आश्वासने, संधी)
यामळु े खप
ू फायदा झाला
8. इचलकरं जी मतदारसंघ धैर्यशील मानें साठी लाभदायक ठरला

Sangli :
Vishal Patil Independent vs Chandrahar Patil SHS (UBT) vs Sanjay Kaka
Patil (BJP)
Won : Vishal Patil
Votes : 571666
Margin : 100053
Lost : Sanjay Kaka Patil
Votes : 471613
Margin : 100053
Lost : Sanjay Kaka Patil
Votes : 60860
Maring : 510806
Total Votes : 1168744

Reasons : 1) Anti Incumbency of Sanjay Kaka Patil, impacted the whole

constituency. 2) Dalit and Muslim voters came together to vote in favour of
Vishal Patil. 3) The strong political network of Vishal Patil, favoured him in this
election.
1. पहिल्यांदा एवढ्या मोठ्या प्रमाणात कॉग्रें स कार्यकर्ते आणि कॉग्रें स चे मतदार
active झालेले दिसनू आले कारण - कॉग्रें स पक्षाचे, विशाल पाटील, Vishwajeet
Kadam आणि स्थानिक पदाधिकारी व कार्यकर्ते यांचे राजकिय खच्चीकरण
केल्याने जनसामान्यात Congress विषयी भावनिक सहानभ ु त
ू ी निर्माण झाली
होती
2. संजय काका पाटील यांच्या बद्दल Anti Incumbency आणि स्थानिक
पातळीवर लोकांचा आक्रोश होता. काकांची दादागिरी व ताट पणा त्यांना नडला
3. विशाल पाटील विषयी सरु ु वातीपासन ू च चांगला प्रतिसाद होता. पक्षाकडून
उमेदवारी जाहीर न झाल्याने महायत ु ी आणि खास करून शिवसेना (UBT) पक्ष
यांच्या विषयी नाराजी व्यक्त होताना दिसते
4. सांगली मध्ये तीन पाटील पैकी एका पाटलाचा बळी दे ण्यात आला व ह्याला
जबाबदार शिवसेना (UBT) आणि राष्ट्रवादी (SP) असे म्हं टले जाते
 5. शिवसेना (UBT) ची जिल्ह्यात ताकत नसताना सद् ु धा आणि पक्ष मध्ये
स्थानिक उमेदवार नसताना तरी अंतर्गत राजकीय कटकारस्थान मळ ु े हार
पत्करावी लागली
6. वंचित ची महत्वपर्ण
ू भमिू का ठरली (विशाल पाटीलना support दिल्याने फायदा
झाला)
7. Chandrahar Patil हे उमेदवार म्हणन
ु तेवढे लोकप्रिय नव्हते

Maval Shrirang Barne (SHS) vs Sanjog Waghere SHS (UBT)

Won : Shrirang Barne
Votes : 692832
Margin : 96615
Lost : Sanjog Waghere
Votes : 596217
Total Votes : 1419401
Reasons : 1. Shrirang Barne has fantastic network and organisation skills with
connections across the constituency. 2. Shrirang Barne had contested on Shiv
Sena Symbol Bow and Arrow had reached people in Lok Sabha Constituency.
3. All the six Vidhan Sabha Constituencies are with Mahayuti, which helped in
management of Booth Level. 4. Narendra Modi is a popular face in the
constituency. 5. Sanjog Waghere a new face in the constituency. The Mashal
symbol failed to reach voters. 6 Udhav Thackery and Sharad Pawar sympathy
did not approve of people in different areas specially voters from urban areas. 7
High Anti Incumbency couldn't not be encashed into vote transfer. 8 The lack of
experienced leaders from INC and NCP SP to make a strong impact in the
constituency. 9. PCMC and the neighbouring villages used a strong network of
relatives across the constituency which helped Shirang Barne in creating a
network.

Chatrapati Sambhaji Nagar: Chandrakant Khaire (SHS) vs Sandipan

Bumbare (SHS UBT )vs Imitiaz Jaleel (MIM)
Won : Sandipan Bumbare
Total Votes: 1302197
Votes : 476130
Margin : 134650
Lost : Imitaz Jaleel
Votes: 341480
Reasons : 1) The Caste factor played an important role, Maratha factor and
Jarange Patil factor played an important part in shifting the caste dynamics of
the constituency. Sandipan Bumbare and Manoj Jarange Patil are relatives.
2) Ambas Danve was interested in contesting from Ch. Sambhaji Nagar, but
failing to get a ticket made him angry and created a rift between Chandrakant
Khaire.
3) Chandrakant Khaire is not a popular leader and age factor impacted the voter
behaviour in the constituency.
4) Imitaz Jaleel is a strong muslim candidate and a Mass leader of Ch.
Shambhaji Nagar, he had a strong organisation power and also he was a neutral
candidate for Hindus and Muslims.
5) VBA introduced a Muslim candidate which played a huge role in tossing
Imitaz Jaleel out.
6) Chandrkant Khaire secured mostly votes from Maratha Community,
sympathy wave was not a huge factor even though Marathwada is centre for
Shiv Sena.
7) Gaddar and the breaking away of Shiv Sena was not used by candidate
Chandrakant Khair in an effective way to convince voters and make them trust
the new Shiv Sena.
8) Mashal Symbol was not effectively reached across the constituency and
impacted the choice of people, voters were still fixated on Bow and Arrow.
9) Narendra Modi + Eknath Shinde + Mahayuti had better Social engineering
than Mahavikas Ahagdi.