Greenhouse effect

The greenhouse effect occurs when greenhouse gases in a planet 's at mosphere insulat e t he
planet from losing heat t o space, raising it s surface t emperat ure. Surface heat ing can happen from
an int ernal heat source as in t he case of Jupit er, or from it s host st ar as in t he case of t he Eart h. In
t he case of Eart h, t he Sun emit s short wave radiat ion (sunlight ) t hat passes t hrough greenhouse
gases t o heat t he Eart h's surface. In response, t he Eart h's surface emit s longwave radiat ion t hat is
most ly absorbed by greenhouse gases. The absorpt ion of longwave radiat ion prevent s it from
reaching space, reducing t he rat e at which t he Eart h can cool off.
 Energy flows down from the sun and up from the
Earth and its atmosphere. When greenhouse gases
absorb radiation emitted by Earth's surface, they
prevent that radiation from escaping into space,
causing surface temperatures to rise by about 33 °C
(59 °F).

Wit hout t he greenhouse effect , t he Eart h's average surface t emperat ure would be about −18 °C
(−0.4 °F),[1][2] which is less t han Eart h's 20t h cent ury average of about 14 °C (57 °F), or a more recent
average of about 15 °C (59 °F).[3][4] In addit ion t o nat urally present greenhouse gases, burning of
fossil fuels has increased amount s of carbon dioxide and met hane in t he at mosphere.[5][6] As a result ,
global warming of about 1.2 °C (2.2 °F) has occurred since t he Indust rial Revolut ion,[7] wit h t he global
average surface t emperat ure increasing at a rat e of 0.18 °C (0.32 °F) per decade since 1981.[8]

All object s wit h a t emperat ure above absolut e zero emit t hermal radiat ion. The wavelengt hs of
t hermal radiat ion emit t ed by t he Sun and Eart h differ because t heir surface t emperat ures are
different . The Sun has a surface t emperat ure of 5,500 °C (9,900 °F), so it emit s most of it s energy
as short wave radiat ion in near-infrared and visible wavelengt hs (as sunlight ). In cont rast , Eart h's
surface has a much lower t emperat ure, so it emit s longwave radiat ion at mid- and far-infrared
wavelengt hs.[6] A gas is a greenhouse gas if it absorbs longwave radiat ion. Eart h's at mosphere
absorbs only 23% of incoming short wave radiat ion, but absorbs 90% of t he longwave radiat ion
emit t ed by t he surface,[9] t hus accumulat ing energy and warming t he Eart h's surface.

The exist ence of t he greenhouse effect , while not named as such, was proposed as early as 1824
by Joseph Fourier.[10] The argument and t he evidence were furt her st rengt hened by Claude Pouillet
in 1827 and 1838. In 1856 Eunice Newt on Foot e demonst rat ed t hat t he warming effect of t he sun is
great er for air wit h wat er vapour t han for dry air, and t he effect is even great er wit h carbon
dioxide.[11][12] The t erm greenhouse was first applied t o t his phenomenon by Nils Gust af Ekholm in
1901.[13][14]

Definition

The greenhouse effect on Eart h is defined as: "The infrared radiat ive effect of all infrared absorbing
const it uent s in t he at mosphere. Greenhouse gases (GHGs), clouds, and some aerosols absorb
t errest rial radiat ion emit t ed by t he Eart h’s surface and elsewhere in t he at mosphere."[15]: 2232

The enhanced greenhouse effect describes t he fact t hat by increasing t he concent rat ion of GHGs in
t he at mosphere (due t o human act ion), t he nat ural greenhouse effect is increased.[15]: 2232

Terminology

The t erm greenhouse effect comes from an analogy t o greenhouses. Bot h greenhouses and t he
greenhouse effect work by ret aining heat from sunlight , but t he way t hey ret ain heat differs.
Greenhouses ret ain heat mainly by blocking convect ion (t he movement of air).[16][17] In cont rast , t he
greenhouse effect ret ains heat by rest rict ing radiat ive t ransfer t hrough t he air and reducing t he rat e
at which t hermal radiat ion is emit t ed int o space.[5]

History of discovery and investigation

Eunice Newton Foote recognized The greenhouse effect and its impact on climate were succinctly
carbon dioxide's heat-capturing described in this 1912 Popular Mechanics article, accessible for reading
effect in 1856, appreciating its by the general public.
implications for the planet.[18]

The exist ence of t he greenhouse effect , while not named as such, was proposed as early as 1824
by Joseph Fourier.[10] The argument and t he evidence were furt her st rengt hened by Claude Pouillet
in 1827 and 1838. In 1856 Eunice Newt on Foot e demonst rat ed t hat t he warming effect of t he sun is
great er for air wit h wat er vapour t han for dry air, and t he effect is even great er wit h carbon dioxide.
She concluded t hat "An at mosphere of t hat gas would give t o our eart h a high t emperat ure..."[11][12]

John Tyndall was t he first t o measure t he infrared absorpt ion and emission of various gases and
vapors. From 1859 onwards, he showed t hat t he effect was due t o a very small proport ion of t he
at mosphere, wit h t he main gases having no effect , and was largely due t o wat er vapor, t hough small
percent ages of hydrocarbons and carbon dioxide had a significant effect .[19] The effect was more
fully quant ified by Svant e Arrhenius in 1896, who made t he first quant it at ive predict ion of global
warming due t o a hypot het ical doubling of at mospheric carbon dioxide.[20] The t erm greenhouse was
first applied t o t his phenomenon by Nils Gust af Ekholm in 1901.[13][14]

In 1896 Svant e Arrhenius used Langley's observat ions of increased infrared absorpt ion where Moon
rays pass t hrough t he at mosphere at a low angle, encount ering more carbon dioxide (CO2), t o
est imat e an at mospheric cooling effect from a fut ure decrease of CO2. He realized t hat t he cooler
at mosphere would hold less wat er vapor (anot her greenhouse gas) and calculat ed t he addit ional
cooling effect . He also realized t he cooling would increase snow and ice cover at high lat it udes,
making t he planet reflect more sunlight and t hus furt her cool down, as James Croll had
hypot hesized. Overall Arrhenius calculat ed t hat cut t ing CO2 in half would suffice t o produce an ice
age. He furt her calculat ed t hat a doubling of at mospheric CO2 would give a t ot al warming of 5–6
degrees Celsius.[21]

Measurement

How CO2 causes the greenhouse

effect.

Mat t er emit s t hermal radiat ion in an amount t hat is direct ly proport ional t o t he fourt h power of it s
t emperat ure. Some of t he radiat ion emit t ed by t he Eart h's surface is absorbed by greenhouse gases
and clouds. Wit hout t his absorpt ion, Eart h's surface would have an average t emperat ure of −18 °C
(−0.4 °F). However, because some of t he radiat ion is absorbed, Eart h's average surface t emperat ure
is around 15 °C (59 °F). Thus, t he Eart h's greenhouse effect may be measured as a temperature
change of 33 °C (59 °F).
Thermal radiat ion is charact erized by how much energy it carries, t ypically in wat t s per square met er
(W/m2). Scient ist s also measure t he greenhouse effect based on how much more longwave t hermal
radiat ion leaves t he Eart h's surface t han reaches space.[22]: 968 [22]: 934 [23][24][25] Current ly, longwave
radiat ion leaves t he surface at an average rat e of 398 W/m2, but only 239 W/m2 reaches space.
Thus, t he Eart h's greenhouse effect can also be measured as an energy flow change of 159
W/m2.[22]: 968 [22]: 934 The greenhouse effect can be expressed as a fract ion (0.40) or percent age
(40%) of t he longwave t hermal radiat ion t hat leaves Eart h's surface but does not reach
space.[22]: 968 [23][26]

Whet her t he greenhouse effect is expressed as a change in t emperat ure or as a change in longwave
t hermal radiat ion, t he same effect is being measured.[23]

Role in climate change

Earth's rate of heating (graph) is a result of

factors which include the enhanced
greenhouse effect.[27]

St rengt hening of t he greenhouse effect t hrough addit ional greenhouse gases from human act ivit ies
is known as t he enhanced greenhouse effect.[15]: 2232 As well as being inferred from measurement s by
ARGO, CERES and ot her inst rument s t hroughout t he 21st cent ury,[28]: 7–17 t his increase in radiat ive
forcing from human act ivit y has been observed direct ly,[29][30] and is at t ribut able mainly t o increased
at mospheric carbon dioxide levels.[31]
 The Keeling Curve of
atmospheric CO2
abundance.

CO2 is produced by fossil fuel burning and ot her act ivit ies such as cement product ion and t ropical
deforest at ion.[32] Measurement s of CO2 from t he Mauna Loa Observat ory show t hat concent rat ions
have increased from about 313 part s per million (ppm)[33] in 1960, passing t he 400 ppm milest one in
2013.[34] The current observed amount of CO2 exceeds t he geological record maxima (≈300 ppm)
from ice core dat a.[35]

Over t he past 800,000 years,[36] ice core dat a shows t hat carbon dioxide has varied from values as
low as 180 ppm t o t he pre-indust rial level of 270 ppm.[37] Paleoclimat ologist s consider variat ions in
carbon dioxide concent rat ion t o be a fundament al fact or influencing climat e variat ions over t his t ime
scale.[38][39]

Energy balance and temperature

Incoming shortwave radiation

The solar radiation spectrum for direct light at both

the top of Earth's atmosphere and at sea level

Hot t er mat t er emit s short er wavelengt hs of radiat ion. As a result , t he Sun emit s short wave radiat ion
as sunlight while t he Eart h and it s at mosphere emit longwave radiat ion. Sunlight includes ult raviolet ,
visible light , and near-infrared radiat ion.[15]: 2251
Sunlight is reflect ed and absorbed by t he Eart h and it s at mosphere. The at mosphere and clouds
reflect about 23% and absorb 23%. The surface reflect s 7% and absorbs 48%.[9] Overall, Eart h
reflect s about 30% of t he incoming sunlight ,[40][41] and absorbs t he rest (240 W/m2).[22]: 934

Outgoing longwave radiation

The greenhouse effect is a reduction in the flux of

outgoing longwave radiation, which affects the
planet's radiative balance. The spectrum of
outgoing radiation shows the effects of different
greenhouse gases.

The Eart h and it s at mosphere emit longwave radiation, also known as thermal infrared or terrestrial
radiation.[15]: 2251 Informally, longwave radiat ion is somet imes called thermal radiation. Out going
longwave radiat ion (OLR) is t he radiat ion from Eart h and it s at mosphere t hat passes t hrough t he
at mosphere and int o space.

The greenhouse effect can be direct ly seen in graphs of Eart h's out going longwave radiat ion as a
funct ion of frequency (or wavelengt h). The area bet ween t he curve for longwave radiat ion emit t ed
by Eart h's surface and t he curve for out going longwave radiat ion indicat es t he size of t he
greenhouse effect .[25]

Different subst ances are responsible for reducing t he radiat ion energy reaching space at different
frequencies; for some frequencies, mult iple subst ances play a role.[24] Carbon dioxide is underst ood
t o be responsible for t he dip in out going radiat ion (and associat ed rise in t he greenhouse effect ) at
around 667 cm−1 (equivalent t o a wavelengt h of 15 microns).[42]

Each layer of t he at mosphere wit h greenhouse gases absorbs some of t he longwave radiat ion being
radiat ed upwards from lower layers. It also emit s longwave radiat ion in all direct ions, bot h upwards
and downwards, in equilibrium wit h t he amount it has absorbed. This result s in less radiat ive heat loss
and more warmt h below. Increasing t he concent rat ion of t he gases increases t he amount of
absorpt ion and emission, and t hereby causing more heat t o be ret ained at t he surface and in t he
layers below.[2]

Effective temperature

Temperature needed to emit a given

amount of thermal radiation.

The power of out going longwave radiat ion emit t ed by a planet corresponds t o t he effective
temperature of t he planet . The effect ive t emperat ure is t he t emperat ure t hat a planet radiat ing wit h
a uniform t emperat ure (a blackbody) would need t o have in order t o radiat e t he same amount of
energy.

This concept may be used t o compare t he amount of longwave radiat ion emit t ed t o space and t he
amount of longwave radiat ion emit t ed by t he surface:

Emissions to space: Based on it s emissions of longwave radiat ion t o space, Eart h's overall effective
temperature is −18 °C (0 °F).[43][2]

Emissions from surface: Based on t hermal emissions from t he surface, Eart h's effective surface
temperature is about 16 °C (61 °F),[22]: 934 which is 34 °C (61 °F) warmer t han Eart h's overall
effect ive t emperat ure.

Eart h's surface t emperat ure is oft en report ed in t erms of t he average near-surface air t emperat ure.
This is about 15 °C (59 °F),[4][44] a bit lower t han t he effect ive surface t emperat ure. This value is
33 °C (59 °F) warmer t han Eart h's overall effect ive t emperat ure.

Energy flux

Energy flux is t he rat e of energy flow per unit area. Energy flux is expressed in unit s of W/m2, which is
t he number of joules of energy t hat pass t hrough a square met er each second. Most fluxes quot ed
in high-level discussions of climat e are global values, which means t hey are t he t ot al flow of energy
over t he ent ire globe, divided by t he surface area of t he Eart h, 5.1 × 1014 m2 (5.1 × 108 km2;
2.0 × 108 sq mi).[45]

The fluxes of radiat ion arriving at and leaving t he Eart h are import ant because radiat ive t ransfer is
t he only process capable of exchanging energy bet ween Eart h and t he rest of t he universe.[46]: 145

Radiative balance

The t emperat ure of a planet depends on t he balance bet ween incoming radiat ion and out going
radiat ion. If incoming radiat ion exceeds out going radiat ion, a planet will warm. If out going radiat ion
exceeds incoming radiat ion, a planet will cool. A planet will t end t owards a st at e of radiat ive
equilibrium, in which t he power of out going radiat ion equals t he power of absorbed incoming
radiat ion.[47]

Eart h's energy imbalance is t he amount by which t he power of incoming sunlight absorbed by Eart h's
surface or at mosphere exceeds t he power of out going longwave radiat ion emit t ed t o space. Energy
imbalance is t he fundament al measurement t hat drives surface t emperat ure.[48] A UN present at ion
says "The EEI is t he most crit ical number defining t he prospect s for cont inued global warming and
climat e change."[49] One st udy argues, "The absolut e value of EEI represent s t he most fundament al
met ric defining t he st at us of global climat e change."[50]

Eart h's energy imbalance (EEI) was about 0.7 W/m2 as of around 2015, indicat ing t hat Eart h as a
whole is accumulat ing t hermal energy and is in a process of becoming warmer.[22]: 934

Over 90% of t he ret ained energy goes int o warming t he oceans, wit h much smaller amount s going
int o heat ing t he land, at mosphere, and ice.[51]
 Comparison of Earth's upward flow of longwave radiation in reality and in a hypothetical
scenario in which greenhouse gases and clouds are removed or lose their ability to absorb
longwave radiation—without changing Earth's albedo (i.e., reflection/absorption of sunlight).
Top shows the balance between Earth's heating and cooling as measured at the top of the
atmosphere (TOA). Panel (a) shows the real situation with an active greenhouse effect.[52] Panel
(b) shows the situation immediately after absorption stops; all longwave radiation emitted by
the surface would reach space; there would be more cooling (via longwave radiation emitted to
space) than warming (from sunlight). This imbalance would lead to a rapid temperature drop.
Panel (c) shows the final stable steady state, after the surface cools sufficiently to emit only
enough longwave radiation to match the energy flow from absorbed sunlight.[52]

Day and night cycle

A simple pict ure assumes a st eady st at e, but in t he real world, t he day/night (diurnal) cycle, as well
as t he seasonal cycle and weat her dist urbances, complicat e mat t ers. Solar heat ing applies only
during dayt ime. At night t he at mosphere cools somewhat , but not great ly because t he t hermal
inert ia of t he climat e syst em resist s changes bot h day and night , as well as for longer periods.[53]
Diurnal t emperat ure changes decrease wit h height in t he at mosphere.

Effect of lapse rate

Lapse rate

In t he lower port ion of t he at mosphere, t he t roposphere, t he air t emperat ure decreases (or "lapses")
wit h increasing alt it ude. The rat e at which t emperat ure changes wit h alt it ude is called t he lapse
rate.[54]

On Eart h, t he air t emperat ure decreases by about 6.5 °C/km (3.6 °F per 1000 ft ), on average,
alt hough t his varies.[54]
The t emperat ure lapse is caused by convect ion. Air warmed by t he surface rises. As it rises, air
expands and cools. Simult aneously, ot her air descends, compresses, and warms. This process
creat es a vert ical t emperat ure gradient wit hin t he at mosphere.[54]

This vert ical t emperat ure gradient is essent ial t o t he greenhouse effect . If t he lapse rat e was zero
(so t hat t he at mospheric t emperat ure did not vary wit h alt it ude and was t he same as t he surface
t emperat ure) t hen t here would be no greenhouse effect (i.e., it s value would be zero).[55]

Emission temperature and altitude

The temperature at which thermal radiation was

emitted can be determined by comparing the
intensity at a particular wavenumber to the intensity
of a black-body emission curve. In the chart,
emission temperatures range between T min and T s .
"Wavenumber" is frequency divided by the speed of
light).

Greenhouse gases make t he at mosphere near Eart h's surface most ly opaque t o longwave radiat ion.
The at mosphere only becomes t ransparent t o longwave radiat ion at higher alt it udes, where t he air is
less dense, t here is less wat er vapor, and reduced pressure broadening of absorpt ion lines limit s t he
wavelengt hs t hat gas molecules can absorb.[56][46]

For any given wavelengt h, t he longwave radiat ion t hat reaches space is emit t ed by a part icular
radiating layer of t he at mosphere. The int ensit y of t he emit t ed radiat ion is det ermined by t he
weight ed average air t emperat ure wit hin t hat layer. So, for any given wavelengt h of radiat ion emit t ed
t o space, t here is an associat ed effective emission temperature (or bright ness t emperat ure).[57][46]

A given wavelengt h of radiat ion may also be said t o have an effective emission altitude, which is a
weight ed average of t he alt it udes wit hin t he radiat ing layer.

The effect ive emission t emperat ure and alt it ude vary by wavelengt h (or frequency). This
phenomenon may be seen by examining plot s of radiat ion emit t ed t o space.[57]
Greenhouse gases and the lapse rate

Greenhouse gases (GHGs) in dense air near the

surface absorb most of the longwave radiation
emitted by the warm surface. GHGs in sparse air at
higher altitudes—cooler because of the
environmental lapse rate—emit longwave radiation
to space at a lower rate than surface emissions.

Eart h's surface radiat es longwave radiat ion wit h wavelengt hs in t he range of 4–100 microns.[58]
Greenhouse gases t hat were largely t ransparent t o incoming solar radiat ion are more absorbent for
some wavelengt hs in t his range.[58]

The at mosphere near t he Eart h's surface is largely opaque t o longwave radiat ion and most heat loss
from t he surface is by evaporat ion and convect ion. However radiat ive energy losses become
increasingly import ant higher in t he at mosphere, largely because of t he decreasing concent rat ion of
wat er vapor, an import ant greenhouse gas.

Rat her t han t hinking of longwave radiat ion headed t o space as coming from t he surface it self, it is
more realist ic t o t hink of t his out going radiat ion as being emit t ed by a layer in t he mid-t roposphere,
which is effect ively coupled t o t he surface by a lapse rat e. The difference in t emperat ure bet ween
t hese t wo locat ions explains t he difference bet ween surface emissions and emissions t o space, i.e.,
it explains t he greenhouse effect .[59][60]
Infrared absorbing constituents in the atmosphere

Greenhouse gases

A greenhouse gas (GHG) is a gas which cont ribut es t o t he t rapping of heat by impeding t he flow of
longwave radiat ion out of a planet 's at mosphere. Greenhouse gases cont ribut e most of t he
greenhouse effect in Eart h's energy budget .[15]

Infrared active gases

Gases which can absorb and emit longwave radiat ion are said t o be infrared active[61] and act as
greenhouse gases.

Most gases whose molecules have t wo different at oms (such as carbon monoxide, CO), and all
gases wit h t hree or more at oms (including H2O and CO2), are infrared act ive and act as greenhouse
gases. (Technically, t his is because when t hese molecules vibrat e, t hose vibrat ions modify t he
molecular dipole moment , or asymmet ry in t he dist ribut ion of elect rical charge. See Infrared
spect roscopy.)[15]

Gases wit h only one at om (such as argon, Ar) or wit h t wo ident ical at oms (such as nit rogen, N2, and
oxygen, O2) are not infrared act ive. They are t ransparent t o longwave radiat ion, and, for pract ical
purposes, do not absorb or emit longwave radiat ion. (This is because t heir molecules are
symmet rical and so do not have a dipole moment .) Such gases make up more t han 99% of t he dry
at mosphere.[15]
Absorption and emission

Longwave absorption coefficients of water vapor

and carbon dioxide. For wavelengths near 15
microns (15 μm in top scale), where Earth's surface
emits strongly, CO2 is a much stronger absorber
than water vapor.

Greenhouse gases absorb and emit longwave radiat ion wit hin specific ranges of wavelengt hs
(organized as spect ral lines or bands).[15]

When greenhouse gases absorb radiat ion, t hey dist ribut e t he acquired energy t o t he surrounding air
as t hermal energy (i.e., kinet ic energy of gas molecules). Energy is t ransferred from greenhouse gas
molecules t o ot her molecules via molecular collisions.[62]

Cont rary t o what is somet imes said, greenhouse gases do not "re-emit " phot ons aft er t hey are
absorbed. Because each molecule experiences billions of collisions per second, any energy a
greenhouse gas molecule receives by absorbing a phot on will be redist ribut ed t o ot her molecules
before t here is a chance for a new phot on t o be emit t ed.[62]

In a separat e process, greenhouse gases emit longwave radiat ion, at a rat e det ermined by t he air
t emperat ure. This t hermal energy is eit her absorbed by ot her greenhouse gas molecules or leaves
t he at mosphere, cooling it .[62]

Radiative effects

Effect on air: Air is warmed by lat ent heat (buoyant wat er vapor condensing int o wat er droplet s and
releasing heat ), t hermals (warm air rising from below), and by sunlight being absorbed in t he
at mosphere.[6] Air is cooled radiat ively, by greenhouse gases and clouds emit t ing longwave t hermal
radiat ion. Wit hin t he t roposphere, greenhouse gases t ypically have a net cooling effect on air,
emit t ing more t hermal radiat ion t han t hey absorb. Warming and cooling of air are well balanced, on
average, so t hat t he at mosphere maint ains a roughly st able average t emperat ure.[46]: 139 [63]
Effect on surface cooling: Longwave radiat ion flows bot h upward and downward due t o absorpt ion
and emission in t he at mosphere. These canceling energy flows reduce radiat ive surface cooling (net
upward radiat ive energy flow). Lat ent heat t ransport and t hermals provide non-radiat ive surface
cooling which part ially compensat es for t his reduct ion, but t here is st ill a net reduct ion in surface
cooling, for a given surface t emperat ure.[46]: 139 [63]

Effect on TOA energy balance: Greenhouse gases impact t he t op-of-at mosphere (TOA) energy
budget by reducing t he flux of longwave radiat ion emit t ed t o space, for a given surface
t emperat ure. Thus, greenhouse gases alt er t he energy balance at TOA. This means t hat t he surface
t emperat ure needs t o be higher (t han t he planet 's effective temperature, i.e., t he t emperat ure
associat ed wit h emissions t o space), in order for t he out going energy emit t ed t o space t o balance
t he incoming energy from sunlight .[46]: 139 [63] It is import ant t o focus on t he t op-of-at mosphere
(TOA) energy budget (rat her t han t he surface energy budget ) when reasoning about t he warming
effect of greenhouse gases.[64]: 414

Flow of heat in Earth's atmosphere, showing (a) upward radiation heat flow and up/down
radiation fluxes, (b) upward non-radiative heat flow (latent heat and thermals), (c) the balance
between atmospheric heating and cooling at each altitude, and (d) the atmosphere's
temperature profile.

Clouds and aerosols

Clouds and aerosols have bot h cooling effect s, associat ed wit h reflect ing sunlight back t o space,
and warming effect s, associat ed wit h t rapping t hermal radiat ion.

On average, clouds have a st rong net cooling effect . However, t he mix of cooling and warming
effect s varies, depending on det ailed charact erist ics of part icular clouds (including t heir t ype,
height , and opt ical propert ies).[65] Thin cirrus clouds can have a net warming effect . Clouds can
absorb and emit infrared radiat ion and t hus affect t he radiat ive propert ies of t he at mosphere.[66]

At mospheric aerosols affect t he climat e of t he Eart h by changing t he amount of incoming solar

radiat ion and out going t errest rial longwave radiat ion ret ained in t he Eart h's syst em. This occurs
t hrough several dist inct mechanisms which are split int o direct , indirect [67][68] and semi-direct aerosol
effect s. The aerosol climat e effect s are t he biggest source of uncert aint y in fut ure climat e
predict ions.[69] The Int ergovernment al Panel on Climat e Change (IPCC), Third Assessment Report ,
says:[70]

While the radiative forcing due to greenhouse gases may be determined

to a reasonably high degree of accuracy... the uncertainties relating to
aerosol radiative forcings remain large, and rely to a large extent on the
estimates from global modeling studies that are difficult to verify at the
present time.

Basic formulas

Effective temperature

A given flux of t hermal radiat ion has an associat ed effective radiating temperature or effective
temperature. Effect ive t emperat ure is t he t emperat ure t hat a black body (a perfect
absorber/emit t er) would need t o be t o emit t hat much t hermal radiat ion.[71] Thus, t he overall
effect ive t emperat ure of a planet is given by

where OLR is t he average flux (power per unit area) of out going longwave radiat ion emit t ed t o space
and is t he St efan-Bolt zmann const ant . Similarly, t he effect ive t emperat ure of t he surface is given
by

where SLR is t he average flux of longwave radiat ion emit t ed by t he surface. (OLR is a convent ional
abbreviat ion. SLR is used here t o denot e t he flux of surface-emit t ed longwave radiat ion, alt hough
t here is no st andard abbreviat ion for t his.)[72]
Metrics for the greenhouse effect

Increase in the Earth's greenhouse effect (2000–

2022) based on NASA CERES satellite data.

The IPCC report s t he greenhouse effect, G, as being 159 W m-2, where G is t he flux of longwave
t hermal radiat ion t hat leaves t he surface minus t he flux of out going longwave radiat ion t hat reaches
space:[22]: 968 [23][25][24]

Alt ernat ively, t he greenhouse effect can be described using t he normalized greenhouse effect, g̃,
defined as

The normalized greenhouse effect is the fraction of the amount of thermal radiation emitted by the
surface that does not reach space. Based on t he IPCC numbers, g̃ = 0.40. In ot her words, 40 percent
less t hermal radiat ion reaches space t han what leaves t he surface.[22]: 968 [23][26]

Somet imes t he greenhouse effect is quant ified as a t emperat ure difference. This t emperat ure
difference is closely relat ed t o t he quant it ies above.

When t he greenhouse effect is expressed as a t emperat ure difference, , t his refers t o t he

effect ive t emperat ure associat ed wit h t hermal radiat ion emissions from t he surface minus t he
effect ive t emperat ure associat ed wit h emissions t o space:

Informal discussions of t he greenhouse effect oft en compare t he act ual surface t emperat ure t o
t he t emperat ure t hat t he planet would have if t here were no greenhouse gases. However, in formal
t echnical discussions, when t he size of t he greenhouse effect is quant ified as a t emperat ure, t his is
generally done using t he above formula. The formula refers t o t he effect ive surface t emperat ure
rat her t han t he act ual surface t emperat ure, and compares t he surface wit h t he t op of t he
at mosphere, rat her t han comparing realit y t o a hypot het ical sit uat ion.[72]

The t emperat ure difference, , indicat es how much warmer a planet 's surface is t han t he
planet 's overall effect ive t emperat ure.

Radiative balance

The greenhouse effect can be understood as a

decrease in the efficiency of planetary cooling. The
greenhouse effect is quantified as the portion of
the radiation flux emitted by the surface minus that
doesn't reach space, i.e., 40% or 159 W/m2. Some
emitted radiation is effectively cancelled out by
downwelling radiation and so does not transfer
heat. Evaporation and convection partially
compensate for this reduction in surface cooling.
Low temperatures at high altitudes limit the rate of
thermal emissions to space.

Eart h's t op-of-at mosphere (TOA) energy imbalance (EEI) is t he amount by which t he power of
incoming radiat ion exceeds t he power of out going radiat ion:[49]
where ASR is t he mean flux of absorbed solar radiat ion. ASR may be expanded as

where is t he albedo (reflect ivit y) of t he planet and MSI is t he mean solar irradiance incoming at
t he t op of t he at mosphere.

The radiat ive equilibrium t emperat ure of a planet can be expressed as

A planet 's t emperat ure will t end t o shift t owards a st at e of radiat ive equilibrium, in which t he TOA
energy imbalance is zero, i.e., . When t he planet is in radiat ive equilibrium, t he overall
effect ive t emperat ure of t he planet is given by

Thus, t he concept of radiat ive equilibrium is import ant because it indicat es what effect ive
t emperat ure a planet will t end t owards having.[73][52]

If, in addit ion t o knowing t he effect ive t emperat ure, , we know t he value of t he greenhouse
effect , t hen we know t he mean (average) surface t emperat ure of t he planet .

This is why t he quant it y known as t he greenhouse effect is import ant : it is one of t he few quant it ies
t hat go int o det ermining t he planet 's mean surface t emperat ure.

Greenhouse effect and temperature

Typically, a planet will be close t o radiat ive equilibrium, wit h t he rat es of incoming and out going
energy being well-balanced. Under such condit ions, t he planet 's equilibrium t emperat ure is
det ermined by t he mean solar irradiance and t he planet ary albedo (how much sunlight is reflect ed
back t o space inst ead of being absorbed).

The greenhouse effect measures how much warmer t he surface is t han t he overall effect ive
t emperat ure of t he planet . So, t he effect ive surface t emperat ure, , is, using t he definit ion
of ,

One could also express t he relat ionship bet ween and using G or g̃.

So, t he principle t hat a larger greenhouse effect corresponds t o a higher surface t emperat ure, if
everyt hing else (i.e., t he fact ors t hat det ermine ) is held fixed, is t rue as a mat t er of definit ion.
Not e t hat t he greenhouse effect influences t he t emperat ure of t he planet as a whole, in t andem
wit h t he planet 's t endency t o move t oward radiat ive equilibrium.[74]

Misconceptions

Earth's overall heat flow. Heat (net energy) always

flows from warmer to cooler, honoring the Second
Law of Thermodynamics.[75] (This heat flow
diagram is equivalent to NASA's earth energy
budget diagram. Data is from 2009.)

There are somet imes misunderst andings about how t he greenhouse effect funct ions and raises
t emperat ures.

The surface budget fallacy is a common error in t hinking.[64]: 413 It involves t hinking t hat an increased
CO2 concent rat ion could only cause warming by increasing t he downward t hermal radiat ion t o t he
surface, as a result of making t he at mosphere a bet t er emit t er. If t he at mosphere near t he surface
is already nearly opaque t o t hermal radiat ion, t his would mean t hat increasing CO2 could not lead t o
higher t emperat ures. However, it is a mist ake t o focus on t he surface energy budget rat her t han t he
t op-of-at mosphere energy budget . Regardless of what happens at t he surface, increasing t he
concent rat ion of CO2 t ends t o reduce t he t hermal radiat ion reaching space (OLR), leading t o a TOA
energy imbalance t hat leads t o warming. Earlier researchers like Callendar (1938) and Plass (1959)
focused on t he surface budget , but t he work of Manabe in t he 1960s clarified t he import ance of
t he t op-of-at mosphere energy budget .[64]: 414

Among t hose who do not believe in t he greenhouse effect , t here is a fallacy t hat t he greenhouse
effect involves greenhouse gases sending heat from t he cool at mosphere t o t he planet 's warm
surface, in violat ion of t he Second Law of Thermodynamics.[75][76] However, t his idea reflect s a
misunderst anding. Radiat ion heat flow is t he net energy flow aft er t he flows of radiat ion in bot h
direct ions have been t aken int o account .[74] Radiat ion heat flow occurs in t he direct ion from t he
surface t o t he at mosphere and space,[6] as is t o be expect ed given t hat t he surface is warmer t han
t he at mosphere and space. While greenhouse gases emit t hermal radiat ion downward t o t he surface,
t his is part of t he normal process of radiat ion heat t ransfer.[77] The downward t hermal radiat ion
simply reduces t he upward t hermal radiat ion net energy flow (radiat ion heat flow), i.e., it reduces
cooling.[62]

Simplified models

Energy flows between space, the atmosphere, and

Earth's surface, with greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere absorbing and emitting radiant heat,
affecting Earth's energy balance. Data as of 2007.

Simplified models are somet imes used t o support underst anding of how t he greenhouse effect
comes about and how t his affect s surface t emperat ure.

Atmospheric layer models

The greenhouse effect can be seen t o occur in a simplified model in which t he air is t reat ed as if it is
single uniform layer exchanging radiat ion wit h t he ground and space.[78] Slight ly more complex
models add addit ional layers, or int roduce convect ion.[79]

Equivalent emission altitude

One simplificat ion is t o t reat all out going longwave radiat ion as being emit t ed from an alt it ude where
t he air t emperat ure equals t he overall effect ive t emperat ure for planet ary emissions, .[80] Some
aut hors have referred t o t his alt it ude as t he effective radiating level (ERL), and suggest t hat as t he
CO2 concent rat ion increases, t he ERL must rise t o maint ain t he same mass of CO2 above t hat
level.[81]
This approach is less accurat e t han account ing for variat ion in radiat ion wavelengt h by emission
alt it ude. However, it can be useful in support ing a simplified underst anding of t he greenhouse
effect .[80] For inst ance, it can be used t o explain how t he greenhouse effect increases as t he
concent rat ion of greenhouse gases increase.[82][81][60]

Eart h's overall equivalent emission alt it ude has been increasing wit h a t rend of 23 m (75 ft )/decade,
which is said t o be consist ent wit h a global mean surface warming of 0.12 °C (0.22 °F)/decade over
t he period 1979–2011.[80]

Related effects on Earth

Negative greenhouse effect

Scient ist s have observed t hat , at t imes, t here is a negat ive greenhouse effect over part s of
Ant arct ica.[83][84] In a locat ion where t here is a st rong t emperat ure inversion, so t hat t he air is warmer
t han t he surface, it is possible for t he greenhouse effect t o be reversed, so t hat t he presence of
greenhouse gases increases t he rat e of radiat ive cooling t o space. In t his case, t he rat e of t hermal
radiat ion emission t o space is great er t han t he rat e at which t hermal radiat ion is emit t ed by t he
surface. Thus, t he local value of t he greenhouse effect is negat ive.

Runaway greenhouse effect

Most scient ist s believe t hat a runaway greenhouse effect is inevit able in t he long t erm, as t he Sun
gradually becomes more luminous as it ages, and will spell t he end of all life on Eart h. As t he Sun
becomes 10% bright er about one billion years from now, t he surface t emperat ure of Eart h will reach
47 °C (117 °F) (unless Albedo is increased sufficient ly), causing t he t emperat ure of Eart h t o rise
rapidly and it s oceans t o boil away unt il it becomes a greenhouse planet , similar t o Venus t oday.
Bodies other than Earth

Greenhouse effect on different celest ial bodies[85][86][87]

Venus Ear t h Mars T it an

735 K (462 °C; 288 K (15 °C; 215 K (−58 °C; 94 K (−179 °C;
Surface temperature,
863 °F) 59 °F) −73 °F) −290 °F)

21 K (38 °F) GHE;

Greenhouse effect, 503 K (905 °F) 33 K (59 °F) 6 K (11 °F) 12 K (22 °F)
GHE+ AGHE

Pressure 92 atm 1 atm 0.0063 atm 1.5 atm

N2 (0.78) CO2 (0.95)

CO2 (0.965) N2 (0.95)
Primary gases O2 (0.21) N2 (0.03)
N2 (0.035) CH4 (≈0.05)
Ar (0.009) Ar (0.02)

Trace gases SO2, Ar H2O, CO2 O2, CO H2

Planetary effective temperature, 232 K (−41 °C; 255 K (−18 °C; 209 K (−64 °C; 73 K tropopause;
−42 °F) −1 °F) −83 °F) 82 K stratopause

2.8 W/m2 GHE;

Greenhouse effect, 16 000 W/m2 150 W/m2 13 W/m2
1.9 W/m2 GHE+ AGHE

0.63 GHE;
Normalized greenhouse effect, 0.99 0.39 0.11
0.42 GHE+ AGHE

In t he solar syst em, apart from t he Eart h, at least t wo ot her planet s and a moon also have a
greenhouse effect .

Venus

The greenhouse effect on Venus is part icularly large, and it brings t he surface t emperat ure t o as
high as 735 K (462 °C; 863 °F). This is due t o it s very dense at mosphere which consist s of about 97%
carbon dioxide.[86]

Alt hough Venus is about 30% closer t o t he Sun, it absorbs (and is warmed by) less sunlight t han
Eart h, because Venus reflect s 77% of incident sunlight while Eart h reflect s around 30%. In t he
absence of a greenhouse effect , t he surface of Venus would be expect ed t o have a t emperat ure of
232 K (−41 °C; −42 °F). Thus, cont rary t o what one might t hink, being nearer t o t he Sun is not a
reason why Venus is warmer t han Eart h.[88][89][90]
Due t o it s high pressure, t he CO2 in t he at mosphere of Venus exhibit s continuum absorption
(absorpt ion over a broad range of wavelengt hs) and is not limit ed t o absorpt ion wit hin t he bands
relevant t o it s absorpt ion on Eart h.[57]

A runaway greenhouse effect involving carbon dioxide and wat er vapor has for many years been
hypot hesized t o have occurred on Venus;[91] t his idea is st ill largely accept ed.[92] The planet Venus
experienced a runaway greenhouse effect , result ing in an at mosphere which is 96% carbon dioxide,
and a surface at mospheric pressure roughly t he same as found 900 m (3,000 ft ) underwat er on
Eart h. Venus may have had wat er oceans, but t hey would have boiled off as t he mean surface
t emperat ure rose t o t he current 735 K (462 °C; 863 °F).[93][94][95]

Mars

Mars has about 70 t imes as much carbon dioxide as Eart h,[96] but experiences only a small
greenhouse effect , about 6 K (11 °F).[85] The greenhouse effect is small due t o t he lack of wat er
vapor and t he overall t hinness of t he at mosphere.[97]

The same radiat ive t ransfer calculat ions t hat predict warming on Eart h accurat ely explain t he
t emperat ure on Mars, given it s at mospheric composit ion.[98][99][72]

Titan

Sat urn's moon Tit an has bot h a greenhouse effect and an ant i-greenhouse effect . The presence of
nit rogen (N2), met hane (CH4), and hydrogen (H2) in t he at mosphere cont ribut e t o a greenhouse
effect , increasing t he surface t emperat ure by 21 K (38 °F) over t he expect ed t emperat ure of t he
body wit hout t hese gases.[86][100]

While t he gases N2 and H2 ordinarily do not absorb infrared radiat ion, t hese gases absorb t hermal
radiat ion on Tit an due t o pressure-induced collisions, t he large mass and t hickness of t he
at mosphere, and t he long wavelengt hs of t he t hermal radiat ion from t he cold surface.[57][86][100]

The exist ence of a high-alt it ude haze, which absorbs wavelengt hs of solar radiat ion but is
t ransparent t o infrared, cont ribut e t o an ant i-greenhouse effect of approximat ely 9 K (16 °F).[86][100]

The net result of t hese t wo effect s is a warming of 21 K − 9 K = 12 K (22 °F), so Tit an's surface
t emperat ure of 94 K (−179 °C; −290 °F) is 12 K warmer t han it would be if t here were no
at mosphere.[86][100]
Effect of pressure

One cannot predict t he relat ive sizes of t he greenhouse effect s on different bodies simply by
comparing t he amount of greenhouse gases in t heir at mospheres. This is because fact ors ot her t han
t he quant it y of t hese gases also play a role in det ermining t he size of t he greenhouse effect .

Overall at mospheric pressure affect s how much t hermal radiat ion each molecule of a greenhouse
gas can absorb. High pressure leads t o more absorpt ion and low pressure leads t o less.[57]

This is due t o "pressure broadening" of spect ral lines. When t he t ot al at mospheric pressure is higher,
collisions bet ween molecules occur at a higher rat e. Collisions broaden t he widt h of absorpt ion lines,
allowing a greenhouse gas t o absorb t hermal radiat ion over a broader range of wavelengt hs.[64]: 226

Each molecule in t he air near Eart h's surface experiences about 7 billion collisions per second. This
rat e is lower at higher alt it udes, where t he pressure and t emperat ure are bot h lower.[101] This means
t hat greenhouse gases are able t o absorb more wavelengt hs in t he lower at mosphere t han t hey can
in t he upper at mosphere.[56][46]

On ot her planet s, pressure broadening means t hat each molecule of a greenhouse gas is more
effect ive at t rapping t hermal radiat ion if t he t ot al at mospheric pressure is high (as on Venus), and
less effect ive at t rapping t hermal radiat ion if t he at mospheric pressure is low (as on Mars).[57]

Anti-greenhouse effect
The ant i-greenhouse effect is a process t hat occurs when energy from a celest ial object 's sun is
absorbed or scat t ered by t he object 's upper at mosphere, prevent ing t hat energy from reaching t he
surface, which result s in surface cooling – t he opposit e of t he greenhouse effect . In an ideal case
where t he upper at mosphere absorbs all sunlight and is nearly t ransparent t o infrared (heat ) energy
from t he surface, t he surface t emperat ure would be reduced by 16%, which is a significant amount
of cooling.[102]

See also

Climat e change feedback Global warming

portal
Climat e model
Environment portal
Global dimming

Idealized greenhouse model

 Illust rat ive model of greenhouse effect on climat e change

Solar radiat ion management

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