HYPOTHESIS TESTING

Prawin Raja
Hypothesis Testing
What is an Hypothesis ?

A hypothesis is a tentative statement or prediction that can be tested by research or

experimentation. It is an educated guess about the relationship between two or more variables.
In the context of scienti c research, a hypothesis proposes a possible explanation for a
phenomenon or a potential outcome of an experiment

Example :

Drinking co ee improve concentration in adults.

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Hypothesis Testing
What is Hypothesis Testing ?

Hypothesis testing is a statistical method used to make decisions or inferences about a

population based on sample data. It involves testing an assumption (the hypothesis) about a
population parameter.

Example :

Does drinking co ee improve concentration in adults ?

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Hypothesis testing
Null Hypothesis ( H0 )

The null hypothesis is a statement of no e ect, no di erence, or no relationship between

variables. It serves as the default or baseline assumption that researchers aim to test against.

Example :

Drinking co ee has no e ect on concentration levels in adults.

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Hypothesis testing
Alternate Hypothesis ( H0 )

The alternative hypothesis is a statement that indicates the presence of an e ect, a di erence,
or a relationship between variables. It represents what the researcher aims to support or prove.

Example :

Drinking co ee improves concentration levels in adults.

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Examples of Hypothesis

1.Descriptive Hypothesis:
• States a speci c characteristic or outcome that can be observed.
• Example: "The average height of adult males in a city is 175 cm.”
2.Relational Hypothesis:
• States a relationship between two variables.
• Example: "There is a positive correlation between the amount of time spent studying and
exam scores."
3.Causal Hypothesis:
• States that one variable causes an e ect on another variable.
• Example: "Regular exercise reduces the risk of heart disease."
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Confidence Interval

A con dence interval (CI) is a range of values, derived from sample data, that is likely to contain
the true population parameter (such as the mean, proportion, or variance) with a speci ed level
of con dence. It provides an estimate of the uncertainty associated with a sample statistic.

Example :
Suppose a sample of 50 students has an average test score of 80 with a standard deviation of 5. For a
95% con dence level, the con dence interval for the true mean test score is approximately [78.6, 81.4]

This is the percentage of all possible samples that can be expected to include the true population
parameter. Common con dence levels are 90%, 95%, and 99%. For instance, a 95% con dence level
means that if we were to take 100 di erent samples and compute a con dence interval for each
sample, we would expect about 95 of those intervals to contain the true population parameter.
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Confidence Interval

Formula :
Confidence Interval
POINT ESTIMATE

This is a single value estimate of a population parameter.

For example, the sample mean (x) is a point estimate of the population mean (μ)
Confidence Interval
Standard Error

The standard error (SE) is a measure of the variability or dispersion of a sample statistic (like the
sample mean) from the population parameter. It is calculated as the standard deviation (σ) of the
sample divided by the square root of the sample size (n).
Confidence Interval
Margin of Error

The margin of error (MoE) represents the range within which the true population parameter is
expected to lie, with a certain level of con dence. It is calculated by multiplying the standard
error by a critical value (z*) from the normal distribution corresponding to the desired con dence
level

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Confidence Interval
Problem

Suppose you want to estimate the average height of adult males in a city. You take a random
sample of 100 adult males and nd the sample mean height to be 175 cm with a sample
standard deviation of 10 cm. You want to construct a 95% con dence interval for the population
mean height.
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Hypothesis Testing using Confidence Interval
Problem

Suppose a nutritionist wants to test if a new diet plan has changed the average weight loss for a
group of individuals. Historically, the average weight loss for the old diet plan was known to be 5
kg. The nutritionist selects a sample of 30 individuals who followed the new diet plan and
records their weight losses. The sample mean weight loss is found to be 6 kg with a standard
deviation of 1.5 kg. The nutritionist wants to test this at a 95% con dence level.

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Hypothesis Testing using Confidence Interval
Solution
Hypothesis Testing using Confidence Interval
Solution
Hypothesis Testing using Confidence Interval
Suppose a nutritionist wants to test if a new diet plan has changed the average weight loss for a group of
individuals. Historically, the average weight loss for the old diet plan was known to be 5 kg. The nutritionist
selects a sample of 30 individuals who followed the new diet plan and records their weight losses. The
sample mean weight loss is found to be 6 kg with a standard deviation of 1.5 kg. The nutritionist wants to test
this at a 95% con dence level.

Conclusion :

Since the 95% con dence interval [5.465, 6.535] does not contain the hypothesized mean (5 kg), we reject
the null hypothesis (H0).

The nutritionist concludes that there is su cient evidence at the 95% con dence level to say that the mean
weight loss with the new diet plan is signi cantly di erent from 5 kg. This suggests that the new diet plan has
likely changed the average weight loss.
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Analyze the dataset to determine whether the training program has a statistically signi cant
impact on employee productivity scores. Speci cally, evaluate the productivity scores before
and after the training program for employees in the Sales and Marketing departments.

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As there are two departments Sales and Marketing ; we need to do the analysis twice.
Let’s First Analyze the Sales Department :
Repeat the same for Marketing Department