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Operating Model - Solucion
Operating Model - Solucion
Operating Model - Solucion
x STEP 8 Adjust Income Statement, Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement (Part I)
32. Income statement: include the projected non-cash expenses related to OWC from step 3
33. Income statement: include the projected depreciation expenses from step 4
34. Income statement: include the projected amortization expenses from step 5
35. Income statement: include the projected interest expenses from step 7
36. Income statement: calculate the projected EBT
37. Cash flow statement (CFO): include the projected depreciation expenses from step 4
38. Cash flow statement (CFO): include the projected amortization expenses from step 5
39. Cash flow statement (CFO): include the projected change in OWC from step 3
40. Cash flow statement (CFO): include the projected non-cash expenses related to OWC from step 3
41. Cash flow statement (CFO): include the projected CAPEX from step 4
42. Balance sheet: include the projected OWC accounts from step 3
43. Balance sheet: include the projected PP&E from step 4 (recall the stock-flow identitiy)
44. Balance sheet: include the projected R&D from step 5 (recall the stock-flow identitiy)
x STEP 10: Adjust Income Statement, Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement (Part II)
51. Income statement: register the projected tax expense according to the Company's accounting policies
52. Income statement: register the projected net income
53. Cash flow statement (CFO): include the projected deferred taxes from step 9
54. Cash flow statement (CFO): using the new information from point 52 and 53, calculate the CFO using the indirect method
55. Balance sheet: Register the corresponding DTA/DTL from the deferred taxes in step 9
x STEP 14: Adjust Income Statement, Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement (Part III)
65. Cash flow statement (CFF): include the dividend payments from step 11
66. Cash flow statement (CFF): include the debt amortization payments
67. Cash flow statement: calculate the change in cash (CFO + CFI + CFF)
68. Balance sheet: include the projected debt balances from step 13
69. Balance sheet: include the projected change in cash from point 67 in the cash balances
70. Balance sheet: include the projected net income minus the projected dividend payments as an increase in Retained Earnings
71. Balance sheet: If there is a remaining asset/liability, check their nature (financing or operating) and forecast its corresponding cash flow
72. Check that the balance sheet is balanced
Payables, etc)
(net of tax shield) from FCFF, and then add the beginning cash balances
m the Cash Availabe for Debt Payments. Evaluate need for new debt
Forecast horizon
x Income Statement
(in S/ thousands, unless otherwise stated) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Sales revenue – 1,580,684.0 1,578,074.0
COGS, net of non-cash entries – (1,308,533.0) (1,345,745.0)
Inventories write-offs (986.0) –
Depreciation – (44,673.0) (70,061.0)
Other devaluations (304.0)
COGS – (1,354,496.0) (1,415,806.0)
Gross profit – 226,188.0 162,268.0
Sales and distribution (ex. depreciation) – (16,770.0) (18,833.0)
Depreciation – (74.0) (616.0)
Sales and distribution expenses – (16,844.0) (19,449.0)
Administrative expenses (ex. Depreciation and amortization) – (29,560.0) (29,605.0)
Depreciation – (1,514.0) (1,924.0)
Amortization – – (8.0)
Administrative expenses – (31,074.0) (31,537.0)
Expected credit losses – (446.0) (223.0)
Other income (ex. Revaluation income) 10,338.0 24,508.0
Revaluation income – 651.0
Other income – 10,338.0 25,159.0
Other expenses (ex. Loss on asset disposal) – (7,350.0) (2,619.0)
Loss on asset disposal – (1,073.0) –
Other expenses – (8,423.0) (2,619.0)
Operating income (EBIT) – 179,739.0 133,599.0
Term deposits 6,991.0 12,489.0
Commercial accounts payable 477.0 356.0
Financial income – 7,468.0 12,845.0
Financial expenses – (4.0) (671.0)
Exchange rate effects – 4,668.0 (8,653.0)
Earnings before tax (EBT) – 191,871.0 137,120.0
Tax expenses – (59,527.0) (47,963.0)
Net income – 132,344.0 89,157.0
EBITDA
PP&E depreciation (46,261.0) (69,823.0)
Leased property (2,778.0)
Depreciation – (46,261.0) (72,601.0)
Amortization – (8.0)
Operating income (EBIT) – 179,739.0 133,599.0
EBITDA – 226,000.0 206,208.0
x Balance Sheet
(in S/ thousands, unless otherwise stated) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Assets
Common equity 1,227,918 1,227,918 1,227,918 1,227,918 1,227,918 1,227,918 1,227,918 1,227,918
Additional paid-in capital 83,000 83,000 83,000 83,000 83,000 83,000 83,000 83,000
Other capital reserves 995 995 14,925 14,925 14,925 14,925 14,925 14,925
Retained earnings 6,953 139,297 89,157
Total shareholder's equity 1,318,866 1,451,210 1,415,000 1,325,843 1,325,843 1,325,843 1,325,843 1,325,843
(in S/ thousands, unless otherwise stated) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Operating activities
Investing activities
Financing activities
(in S/ thousands, unless otherwise stated) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Revenue - by client sector
Crecimiento PBI nominal - construccion 9.9% 9.9% 8.1% 8.3% 8.5% =+(1+O173)*(1+O$177)-1
Crecimiento PBI nominal - industrial 6.1% 6.4% 6.2% 6.0% 6.2% =+(1+O174)*(1+O$177)-1
Crecimiento PBI nominal - mining 3.6% 5.6% 4.0% 4.1% 4.3% =+(1+O175)*(1+O$177)-1
Nominal GDP elasticity of sales - construction - - - 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Nominal GDP elasticity of sales - industrial - - - 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Nominal GDP elasticity of sales - mining - - - 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
Construction real GDP growth (%) 2.2% 9.0% 7.8% 7.8% 7.8% 6.0% 6.2% 6.4%
Industrial real GDP growth (%) -2.5% 3.7% 3.6% 4.0% 4.3% 4.1% 3.9% 4.2%
Mining real GDP growth (%) 4.2% 2.2% 2.4% 1.6% 3.5% 2.0% 2.1% 2.3%
WPI - Inflation (%) 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%
(in S/ thousands, unless otherwise stated) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Expenses
COGS (net of non-cash entries)/Sales (%) 83% 85% 84% 84% 84% 84% 84%
COGS (net of non-cash entries) (1,308,533.0) (1,345,745.0) 1,386,068.0 1,449,519.4 1,504,340.9 1,562,553.2 1,624,673.7
Sales and distribution (ex. depreciation)/Sales (%) 1.06% 1.19% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1%
Sales and distribution (ex. depreciation) (16,770.0) (18,833.0) 18,592.6 19,443.7 20,179.1 20,960.0 21,793.3
Administrative expenses (ex. Depreciation and amortization)/Sales (%) 1.87% 1.88% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9%
Administrative expenses (ex. Depreciation and amortization) (29,560.0) (29,605.0) 30,895.7 32,310.1 33,532.0 34,829.6 36,214.3
(in S/ thousands, unless otherwise stated) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Operating working capital
Commercial accounts receivable (ex. Expected credit losses) 212,986 235,254 260,546
Other accounts receivable 192,882 109,066 85,767
Inventories (ex. Write-offs) 418,901 407,188 420,130
OWC assets 824,769 751,508 766,443
Commercial accounts payable 132,339 172,505 145,799
Related parties accounts payable 113,093 138,598 188,398
Other accounts payable 39,713 52,412 54,207
OWC liabilities 285,145 363,515 388,404
Net operating working capital 539,624 387,993 378,039
(in S/ thousands, unless otherwise stated) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Working capital drivers
(in S/ thousands, unless otherwise stated) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Provisions and write-offs
Commercial accounts receivable (ex. Expected credit losses) 212,986 235,254 260,546
Expected credit loss -11,097 -10,879 -10,890
Expected credit loss / Receivables (%) -5.2% -4.6% -4.2% -5.0% -4.5% -5.5% -5.5% -6.5%
Expected credit loss expense
Land – (3,476.0) –
Works in progress – (8,156.0) (15,667.0)
Non-depreciable CAPEX – (11,632.0) (15,667.0)
Buildings – – (456.0)
Machinery – (2,417.0) (5,946.0)
Transport units – (92.0) (143.0)
Furniture and fixtures – – (295.0)
Equipments – (1,053.0) (2,703.0)
Depreciable CAPEX – (3,562.0) (9,543.0)
(in S/ thousands, unless otherwise stated) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Existing CAPEX depreciation expenses (straight line)
(in S/ thousands, unless otherwise stated) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
New CAPEX depreciation expenses (straight line)
Buildings .0 – – – – –
Machinery .0 – – – – –
Transport units .0 – – – – –
Furnitute and fixtures .0 – – – – –
Equipments .0 – – – – –
2020 CAPEX depreciation .0 – – – – –
Buildings .0 – – – –
Machinery .0 – – – –
Transport units .0 – – – –
Furnitute and fixtures .0 – – – –
Equipments .0 – – – –
2021 CAPEX depreciation .0 – – – –
Buildings .0 – – –
Machinery .0 – – –
Transport units .0 – – –
Furnitute and fixtures .0 – – –
Equipments .0 – – –
2022 CAPEX depreciation .0 – – –
Buildings .0 – –
Machinery .0 – –
Transport units .0 – –
Furnitute and fixtures .0 – –
Equipments .0 – –
2023 CAPEX depreciation .0 – –
Buildings .0 –
Machinery .0 –
Transport units .0 –
Furnitute and fixtures .0 –
Equipments .0 –
2024 CAPEX depreciation .0 –
(in S/ thousands, unless otherwise stated) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Projected PP&E and depreciation expenses
x Leased Properties
(in S/ thousands, unless otherwise stated) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Depreciation (straight line) - Company's accounting policies
x Depreciation Allocation
(in S/ thousands, unless otherwise stated) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Depreciation expenses
x Debt/Financing Schedule
(in S/ thousands, unless otherwise stated) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Cash Available to Pay Debt
FCFF
Interest expenses
Interest cash tax shield
Dividend payments
Cash flow available for debt service
Beginning cash balance
Minimum cash balance 0 0 0 0 0
Total cash available for debt service
( – ) Mandatory payments (Short-term lease)
( – ) Mandatory payments (Long-term lease)
Cash budget surplus / cash budget deficit
(in S/ thousands, unless otherwise stated) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Debt
x Tax Schedule
(in S/ thousands, unless otherwise stated) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Tax rate
Tax rate 29.50% 29.50% 29.50% 29.50% 29.50%
(in S/ thousands, unless otherwise stated) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Income statement for tax purposes
(in S/ thousands, unless otherwise stated) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Tax expense
(in S/ thousands, unless otherwise stated) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Deferred taxes schedule
x Dividends Schedule
(in S/ thousands, unless otherwise stated) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Dividend payments
Payout ratio (as % of net income) 33% 33% 33% 33% 33%
Dividend payments
(in S/ thousands, unless otherwise stated) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Free Cash Flows to the Firm (FCFF)
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Operating Model
This model was made by Javier Barrantes for the course Corporate Finance II. All intelectual work is attributable to Javier Barrantes. Sources that helped in the creation of this model: Pignataro, Macabacus
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