ASML HOLDING N.V.

NDQ-ASML RECENT
PRICE 962.67 P/ERATIO 47.1(Trailing:
Median: 29.0) P/E RATIO 2.63 YLD 0.7%
44.0 RELATIVE DIV’D VALUE
LINE
TIMELINESS 2 Raised 2/9/24 High:
Low:
101.9
62.7
109.9
79.7
114.1
82.1
112.7
77.2
186.4
109.6
221.7
144.5
298.5
147.4
492.7
191.3
895.9
489.7
799.4
363.2
772.0
545.8
1056
696.1
Target Price Range
2027 2028 2029
SAFETY 3 New 9/22/23 LEGENDS
35.0 x ″Cash Flow″ p sh 3500
TECHNICAL 3 Raised 3/15/24 . . . . Relative Price Strength
Options: Yes 2500
BETA 1.10 (1.00 = Market) Shaded area indicates recession
18-Month Target Price Range
1250
Low-High Midpoint (% to Mid)
$722-$1578 $1150 (20%) 800
2027-29 PROJECTIONS 600
Ann’l Total 500
Price Gain Return 400
High 2155 (+125%) 23% 300
Low 1435 (+50%) 11%
% TOT. RETURN 2/24 250
U.S. Institutional Decisions THIS VL ARITH.* 200
2Q2023 3Q2023 4Q2023 STOCK INDEX
Percent 9 1 yr. 55.5 10.4
to Buy 635 656 767 shares 6
to Sell 423 439 432 3 yr. 72.9 16.5
traded 3
Hld’s(000) 75009 75325 73431 5 yr. 449.6 63.1
ASM Lithography was created by Philips 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 © VALUE LINE PUB. LLC 27-29
and Advanced Semiconductor Materials in 1.21 1.09 1.05 1.20 1.14 1.12 1.23 1.13 1.07 1.10 1.10 1.10 Translation Rate(Euro/$) A 1.10
1984. It went public in 1995 with Philips sell- 16.44 16.00 16.69 25.39 29.76 31.61 41.19 52.32 57.42 77.05 79.20 97.35 Sales per sh B 138.90
ing off half its stake. It is traded on Amster- 4.97 4.29 4.49 7.11 8.20 8.13 11.92 17.86 16.83 23.99 23.60 31.60 ‘‘Cash Flow’’ per sh 48.55
C
dam and NASDAQ stock exchanges. KPMG 3.93 3.50 3.63 5.89 6.96 6.91 10.41 16.23 15.12 21.88 21.50 29.00 Earnings per sh 45.00
is the auditor. .84 .76 1.21 1.31 1.69 3.51 2.85 3.96 6.93 6.45 4.45 7.00 Div’ds Decl’d p/sh D■ 16.50
1.01 .95 .78 .95 1.56 2.05 2.83 2.53 3.48 6.03 4.00 4.45 Cap’l Spending per sh 4.15
23.49 21.35 24.12 29.94 31.66 33.68 40.86 28.51 23.89 37.61 38.75 44.15 Book Value per sh 43.95
CAPITAL STRUCTURE as of 12/31/23 432.94 427.99 429.94 427.39 421.10 419.81 416.51 402.60 394.59 393.42 385.00 380.00 Common Shs Outst’g E 360.00
Total Debt $5.09 bill. Due in 5 Yrs $2.07 bill.
LT Debt $5.09 bill. LT Interest $125 mill. 23.6 28.4 27.4 24.8 27.5 31.7 33.5 43.0 37.3 30.3 Bold figures are Avg Ann’l P/E Ratio 40.0
1.24 1.43 1.44 1.25 1.49 1.69 1.72 2.32 2.15 1.69 Value Line Relative P/E Ratio 2.25
(Total interest coverage: NMF) (26% of Cap’l) estimates
.9% .8% 1.2% .9% .9% 1.6% .8% .6% 1.2% 1.0% Avg Ann’l Div’d Yield .9%
Leases, Uncapitalized Annual rentals $2.4 bill. 7118.9 6848.3 7174.5 10852 12533 13271 17156 21065 22656 30315 30500 37000 Sales ($mill) B 50000
30.7% 28.3% 28.3% 31.1% 31.0% 27.4% 32.5% 37.7% 33.5% 35.7% 39.0% 43.0% Operating Margin 43.0%
Pension Assets-12/22: $104.7 mill.
Pension Obligation: $104.2 mill. 429.2 323.4 376.9 500.5 484.1 503.6 602.4 533.1 624.5 814.0 800 880 Depreciation ($mill) 1100
Pfd Stock None 1724.1 1510.9 1554.1 2539.6 2967.9 2910.5 4361.4 6659.0 6017.9 8623.0 8290 11125 Net Profit ($mill) 16385
7.1% 10.4% 13.0% 12.7% 12.0% 6.9% 13.7% 15.2% 15.0% 15.9% 16.0% 16.0% Income Tax Rate 16.0%
Common Stock 393,421,721 common shares. 24.2% 22.1% 21.7% 23.4% 23.7% 21.9% 25.4% 31.6% 26.6% 28.4% 27.2% 31.8% Net Profit Margin 32.8%
4912.9 5010.9 5571.8 6791.1 7718.0 8350.0 11446 6669.1 5436.9 8931.0 6020 9845 Working Cap’l ($mill) 12800
as of 12/31/23 1401.2 1225.9 3243.5 3596.4 3465.9 3489.9 5722.6 4612.3 3760.2 5094.0 4975 3500 Long-Term Debt ($mill) 3000
MARKET CAP: $379 billion (Large Cap) 10170 9137.2 10369 12798 13331 14138 17017 11478 9427.6 14797 14920 16780 Shr. Equity ($mill) 15820
15.0% 14.7% 11.4% 15.7% 17.8% 16.6% 19.3% 41.5% 45.8% 43.5% 41.5% 55.0% Return on Total Cap’l 87.0%
CURRENT POSITION 2021 2022 12/31/23 17.0% 16.5% 15.0% 19.8% 22.3% 20.6% 25.6% 58.0% 63.8% 58.3% 55.5% 66.5% Return on Shr. Equity NMF
($MILL.) 13.8% 12.9% 10.4% 15.0% 17.1% 10.1% 17.9% 44.5% 34.8% 40.8% 37.0% 48.0% Retained to Com Eq NMF
Cash Assets 8565 7891 7711 19% 22% 30% 24% 23% 51% 30% 23% 46% 30% 30% 33% All Divd’s to Net Prof 30%
Receivables 3422 5697 4767
Inventory (FIFO) 5852 7704 9736 BUSINESS: ASML Holding N.V, is traded on the NASDAQ and 2022 (40 EUV). Taiwan sales were 38% of total; South Korea 29%.
Other 2716 3386 4619 Euronext Amsterdam. The company sells an integrated portfolio of Largest customers are TSMC, Intel, and Samsung. Has 39,086 em-
Current Assets 20555 24678 26833 lithography systems mainly for manufacturing complex integrated ployees. As of 2/7/24, insiders own less than 1% of stock; Capital
Accts Payable 2391 2745 2582 circuits. The company supplies systems to integrated circuit semi- Research & Mgmt. 10.3%; BlackRock 8.0%; C.E.O.: Peter Winnick.
Debt Due 575 798 --
Other 10930 15700 15319 conductors (ICs) manufacturers throughout the United States, Asia, Address: De Run 6501, 5504 DR Veldhoven, The Netherlands
Current Liab. 13896 19243 17901 and Western Europe from 60 locations. Sold 561 net systems in Tel.: 31 6 5284 4418. Internet: www.asml.com
ANNUAL RATES Past Past Est’d ’21-’23 The stock price of ASML Holding NV it faces these competitors in mid and lower
of change (per ADR) 10 Yrs. 5 Yrs. to ’27-’29 has soared 36% since our last report, end markets. Management reined in Wall
Sales 15.0% 21.0% 9.5% despite the likelihood of a modest Street expectations three months ago with
‘‘Cash Flow’’ 16.0% 24.5% 6.5%
Earnings 17.0% 26.5% 12.5% profit decline this year. The excitement a flat revenue forecast for this year, but
Dividends 25.0% 33.0% 7.0% surrounding artificial intelligence and the the company’s current firm order book will
Book Value 7.5% 1.0% 8.0% potential for accelerated technological ad- likely translate into double-digit top-line
Cal- QUARTERLY SALES ($ mill.) B Full vancement this decade has propelled the growth in 2025. Combined with rising
endar Mar.31 Jun.30 Sep.30 Dec.31 Year P/E multiple higher, even though demand gross margins (from 50% vicinity to 54%
2021 4939 4550 5932 5643 21065 for lithography tools, much less machines, next year), we look for earnings to be
2022 3781 5810 6182 6880 22655 will face a lull before many new foundries around $29.00 per share.
2023 7218 7385 7340 8372 30315 begin construction in 2025. Elevated costs Bookings ended 2024 at 39 billion
2024 6000 7250 8250 9000 30500 stemming from capacity improvements euros. The shift to new technology nodes
2025 7500 9000 9500 11000 37000 will also dampen margins in coming on the memory side typically fuels
Cal- EARNINGS PER ADR C Full quarters. demand. And innovative HDM technol-
endar Mar.31 Jun.30 Sep.30 Dec.31 Year Our newly introduced 2025 earnings ogies should support memory growth after
2021 3.62 2.85 4.82 4.95 16.13 per share estimate assumes renewed it lagged logic gains in recent quarters.
2022 1.85 3.79 4.59 4.89 15.12 shipment growth. ASML’s lithography Investors should note the unique
2023 5.46 5.42 5.29 5.71 21.88 equipment is used to squeeze an enormous price action of this stock. Even though
2024 3.00 5.50 6.25 6.75 21.50 amount of transistors onto a single chip ASML’s technology is unrivaled, the
2025 6.00 6.50 8.00 8.50 29.00 and enable high volume production. This shares still often trade directionally with
Cal- QUARTERLY DIVIDENDS PAID D■ Full technology is the most critical function in the semiconductor cycle. As a result, inves-
endar Mar.31 Jun.30 Sep.30 Dec.31 Year the semi manufacturing process and is vi- tors looking to price in forward demand
2020 -- 1.46 - - 1.40 2.86 tal for the creation of both memory and levels are exposed to semi industry senti-
2021 -- 1.87 - - 2.09 3.96 logic chips. The company’s EUV (extreme ment on a short term basis. Aside from
2022 -- 4.19 - - 1.34 6.93 ultraviolet) machines cost $200 million to this caveat, investors willing to endure
2023 1.49 1.84 1.59 1.53 6.45 $300 million. And ASML’s EUV offerings volatility should be rewarded with supe-
2024 1.58 have been far superior to those of rivals rior returns over the long haul.
Canon and Nikon for many years, though, Charles C. Moran March 22, 2024
(A) At year end. In $, unless otherwise noted. Earnings may not sum due to rounding. Next ary, May, August, and November. Company’s Financial Strength A
(B) Sales excluding excise taxes. earnings report due early May. (E) In millions. Stock’s Price Stability 55
(C) Earnings based on IFRS from 2013. Based (D) Dividends historically paid in early Febru- Price Growth Persistence 100
on U.S. GAAP. Earnings Predictability 80
© 2024 Value Line, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided without warranties of any kind.
THE PUBLISHER IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS HEREIN. This publication is strictly for subscriber’s own, non-commercial, internal use. No part To subscribe call 1-800-VALUELINE
of it may be reproduced, resold, stored or transmitted in any printed, electronic or other form, or used for generating or marketing any printed or electronic publication, service or product.