Senthold Asseng, Yan Zhu, Enli Wang, Weijian Zhang,

Chapter 20 - Crop modeling for climate change impact and adaptation,

Editor(s): Victor O. Sadras, Daniel F. Calderini,
Crop Physiology (Second Edition),
Academic Press,
2015,
Pages 505-546,
ISBN 9780124171046,
https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-417104-6.00020-0.
(https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780124171046000200)
Abstract: Physiology-based crop simulation models have become a key tool in
extrapolating the impact of climate change from limited experimental evidence to
broader climatic zones, soil types, crop management regimens, crops and climate
change scenarios. While these models are a simplification of the reality, they
allow a first assessment of the complexity of climate change impact in agriculture.
They are playing an increasingly important role in assisting agriculture to adapt
to climate change. This includes the use of modeling to optimize management
practices, assist in breeding programs, develop new crop rotations and maximize the
value of seasonal climate forecasts. In order to meet the increasing demand for
assessment of climate change impact, crop models need to be further improved and
tested with climate change scenarios involving various changes in ambient
temperature and CO2 concentration. Current knowledge gaps include limited
understanding and modeling of the interactive impact of climate factors, the impact
of extreme events (e.g. heat stress, frost and excess water) occurring at different
crop stages, sink–source relationships, and changes in yield quality of crops under
future climates. Despite these knowledge gaps, crop models have improved our
understanding of the impacts of climate change on many aspects of local and world
food production. They have facilitated establishment of new hypotheses for climate
change studies, stimulated investigations into climate change adaptation, and
assisted in communicating to the public and policy makers that continued climate
change could have devastating impacts on food supply.
Keywords: crop modeling; crop physiology; climate change; agriculture; impact;
management practices; plant breeding