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An Estimate of Variance Due To Traits in Leadership: David A. Kenny Stephen J. Zaccaro
An Estimate of Variance Due To Traits in Leadership: David A. Kenny Stephen J. Zaccaro
An Estimate of Variance Due To Traits in Leadership: David A. Kenny Stephen J. Zaccaro
Groups pervade many aspects of social life is the crux of the interactional theory), "the role he achieves
The behavior of individuals interacting in is determined not by his personal qualities in the abstract
but by his standing in relation to his fellow members in
classrooms, in work groups, on juries, on ath- the special qualities required by the particular group goal
letic teams, and in therapy sessions is heavily or situation" (Gibb, 1969, p 268)
influenced by group-related phenomena (e.g.,
norms, influence pressures, and cohesiveness). The interactional interpretation states then
The effectiveness of such groups often depends that leadership occurs as a function of the in-
on the behavior of group leaders. Whether ap- teraction between the group's needs and the
pointed to the group or emerging from the member resources available to satisfy these
group process, leaders exert a major influence needs (Jenkins, 1947; Murphy, 1941) The
on directions their groups may take. member who possesses those resources that
can best aid the group in reaching its ordained
The current leadership literature empha-
goals is more likely to emerge as the leader.
sizes an interaction hypothesis in explaining
The initial processes involved in the early
who emerges as a group leader. The interaction
stages of group development concern the iden-
hypothesis as formulated by Sherif (1948, p.
tification of such member resources and sub-
456) states-
sequent group coalescence around the chosen
Leadership is an interactional phenomenon arising when
leader (Geier, 1967; Hollander & Julian, 1970).
group formation takes place The relative role an
There is the explicit rejection by interaction
individual member assumes within the group is determined
both by the role needs of the group and by the particular theorists of a purely trait explanation of lead-
attributes of personality, ability, and skill which differentiate ership emergence. In an early statement of the
him from other members of the group However (and this interaction hypothesis, Murphy (1941) stated
that, "Leadership does not reside in the person.
It is a function of the whole situation" (p.
Support for this article was provided in part from Na- 674). Contrary to the "great men" (or women)
tional Science Foundation Grants BNS-7913820 and BNS- theory of leadership, the specific circumstances
8210137 The MacArthur Foundation also supported the call for certain qualities in a leader. In an al-
first author at the Center for Advanced Study in the Be- ternate set of circumstances, this leader may
havioral Sciences, 1982-1983
Requests for reprints should be sent to David A Kenny,
become a follower. The trait approach has been
Department of Psychology U-20, University of Connec- evaluated by two major types of studies: at-
ticut, Storrs, Connecticut 06268. tempts to identify so-called leadership traits
678
VARIANCE IN LEADERSHIP 679
and rotation studies in which member com- ers may be, in fact, situation specific because
position or group tasks are varied. Data from most group situations under study were per-
rotation designs demonstrating variability in formance tasks.
leader emergence as well as the failure to un- Two other proposed traits that have received
cover a trait that is consistently associated with substantial support in some quarters are dom-
leader emergence have led researchers to reject inance and personality adjustment. Stogdill
dispositional explanations for leader emer- (1948) reported that 11 studies (out of 17)
gence. We argue in this article, however, that indicated that leaders had higher scores on
such rejection is unwarranted or, at best, pre- various dominance scales. Gibb (1969) re-
mature. In his revision of StogdiU's Handbook ported several studies published after the Stog-
of Leadership, Bass (1981) maintained that dill review that indicated a similar relationship.
"some of the variance in who emerges as leader However, Mann (1959) again questioned the
and who is successful and effective is due to strength of these correlations. No correlation
traits of consequence in the situation; some of between dominance and leadership exceeded
the variance is due to situational effects and .42 and the median correlation was .20. The
some of the variance is due to the interaction same conclusions can be drawn about per-
of traits and situations" (pp. 81-82) In this sonality adjustment. Whereas several studies
article we will use a quantitative model of were reported as supporting a positive rela-
leadership that allows a researcher to isolate tionship between leadership and adjustment
the amount of variance attributable to traits (Bird, 1940; Gibb, 1969; Jenkins, 1947; Mann,
Furthermore, applying this model to one of 1959, Stogdill, 1948), Mann indicated that the
the more elaborate rotation designs (Barnlund, median correlation was 15 and no correlation
1962), we hope to mitigate the conclusion that exceeded .53
leader emergence is not a function of traits. All major reviews of the leadership literature
We first begin, however, by reviewing in turn have noted the overall failure to find either a
both trait identification studies and rotation consistent and strong trait or a constellation
design experiments. of traits that differentiate leaders from follow-
ers. One explanation for this failure offered
The Failure to Identify Traits Correlated by Gibb (1969) was the inadequacy of trait
With Leadership and personality measures. Measures used in
reported research may not have been sensitive
Reviews of the leadership literature all tend enough to highlight the leadership trait. An
to demonstrate the point that "no single trait alternate method, the rotation design, can be
or group of characteristics has been isolated used to test the trait theory of leadership with-
which sets off the leader from the members of out positing specifically what the trait is.
his group" (Jenkins, 1947, pp 74-75). Bird
(1940), after reviewing 20 studies, noted 79 Rotation Designs
leadership traits; however, only 5% of these
traits were common to four or more investi- Rotation designs are based on the hypothesis
gations (Geier, 1967). Subsequent reviews by that if leadership is a function of personal
Jenkins (1947) and Stogdill (1948) echoed this qualities of the leader, then the same person
discouraging state of affairs. will emerge as a leader when aspects of the
A trait that generally has been found to cor- situation are varied. If, however, leadership is
relate with leader emergence has been intel- a function of either situational factors or of
ligence. Stogdill (1948) reported 23 studies (out an interaction between qualities of the poten-
of 33) that reported a significant positive cor- tial leader and needs of the group, then varying
relation between leadership and intelligence situational factors will change who emerges as
Although Mann's (1959) review supported this the group leader Thus, to contrast a trait hy-
relationship, it cast doubt on its strength. In pothesis with an interactiomst hypothesis of
the studies surveyed, none yielded a correlation leader emergence, rotation designs are used to
higher than .50 and the median correlation vary some aspects of the group (e.g., member
was .25. Furthermore, Gibb (1969) suggested composition and task) over a series of sessions.
that the reportedly higher intelligence of lead- The relationship between leadership rank in
680 DAVID A KENNY AND STEPHEN J ZACCARO
one session with rankings in other sessions is groups having different memberships did so
then observed. because of a special skill for that task. They
Three different rotational schemes have may have had special abilities or resources that
been employed. The first type of rotational fellow members recognized. A more complete
study holds the task constant but varies mem- test would thus involve varying the group task.
ber composition. Generally, each person is in Gibb (Note 1) did vary group tasks, while
a group with each other person in the study keeping membership constant. Leadership was
only once. Setting group size at n, to execute found to be consistent across the different
such a study there must be n2 subjects and tasks. Carter and Nixon (1949), using a similar
each subject must be in n + 1 groups. The design, had the same dyads work on three con-
second type of rotational study keeps member secutive tasks, an intellectual task, a clerical
composition constant but varies the task A task, and a mechanical task. Although lead-
third type of rotation study varies both mem- ership was associated in the intellectual and
ber composition and task. clerical situations, it seemed to be independent
Bell and French (1950) varied only member on the mechanical task Whereas these two
composition to study leader stability Twenty- studies appear, in part, to offer additional sup-
five male subjects interacted in five-member port for a trait interpretation of leader emer-
groups over six group sessions. In each session, gence, it is reasonable to assume an mertial
each individual interacted with group mem- effect whereby a leader who emerges in one
bers who were not a part of any other group group situation will continue to be perceived
that included the individual. During each ses- as a leader in subsequent group sessions by
sion, each group had to discuss a case history the same fellow members.
of a student who had a personal adjustment Only Barnlund (1962) varied both member
problem m college. After the group members composition and group task Further, the tasks
reached a solution consensus, they rank or- used were different enough so that each one
dered all fellow members according to leader required a different "constellation of skills."
preference. Bell and French then averaged the As m Bell and French (1950), each of the 25
rankings given each individual by his fellow subjects worked with four fellow members in
members and correlated this average with the six group sessions structured so that no in-
mean status score given this individual m the dividual worked with another member m more
other five groups of which he was a member. than one session. Subjects worked on motor,
The range of these correlations was —.03 to artistic, mathematical, literary, social, and
+.98, and the average correlation was 75 This spatial problems At the conclusion of each
result led Bell and French to conclude that session subjects were asked to rank order their
varying group composition did not have major preferences for a leader Using the same sta-
effects on consistency of leadership position tistical procedures as Bell and French, Barn-
and that the "recent trend toward emphasis lund reported a correlation of .64, which he
upon situational factors in leadership may re- judged to be statistically nonsignificant.1 He
quire some reevaluation" (p. 767) concluded that his results lent "credibility to
Borgatta, Bales, and Couch (1954) also var- the idea that leadership grows out of the special
ied member composition Three-member problems of coordination facing a given group
groups planned a future role play situation and the available talent of the participants"
and each subject participated in four group (P 51).
sessions. Using a variety of indices, including
leadership rankings by fellow members, as-
sertiveness ratings, and sociometric scales, 11
leaders were discerned in the first group ses- ' Because Barnlund assumed n equaled only five, a cor-
sion. The authors found that in the second relation of 878 would be needed to achieve conventional
and third sessions 8 of these 11 leaders re- statistical significance However, because 64 is an average
mained m the top position. of 30 nonindependent correlations each based on an n of
five, it would seem likely that it is statistically significant
In both studies only group composition was The interest in this article, however, is estimation of the
varied, and the task was kept constant. It is percent of variation due to traits and not significance
possible that leaders who emerged across testing
VARIANCE IN LEADERSHIP 681
Investigators compute the average rating for where /3<m) is the mean of person / s |3s across
each person in a group. We must then compute all tasks but task m and the y term is similarly
this term from Expression 2. It is for person denned.
j in group k and task m: If we denote n(n - 2)/(« - I) 2 as p and
s (« - 2) of as a^/(n — 1), the covariance between
M + Pjkm — P kn>n ;
(« - I)2 Expressions 3 and 4 can be shown to equal
p ^ X 2 , and the variances of Expressions 3 and
2 "tl km 4, respectively, are p^aj + p<rt and
jkm (3)
n- 1 erf
where 0 km is the average /3 for all persons in
group k (see Appendix for proof.) The average
rating of person j m the other tasks besides m
X2 is the correlation of leadership across tasks,
can be approximated by (see Appendix)'
of represents error variance due to y, and
dp represents leadership variance.3 Then the
correlation between Expressions 3 and 4 equals
(5)
+
ers have attempted to answer this question in situations This implication, however, can be
two ways The most common way has been harmonized with a leader-trait perspective by
an attempt to isolate the particular leadership proposing that persons who are consistently
trait As is well known, this approach has not cast in the leadership role possess the ability
isolated any leadership trait The second ap- to perceive and predict variations in group
proach has been to examine the stability of situations and pattern their own approaches
leadership across different situations. Persons accordingly Such leaders may be highly com-
are rotated across different tasks or groups. petent in reading the needs of their consti-
Only the Barnlund study varied both task and tuencies and altering their behaviors to more
member composition Using the social rela- effectively respond to these needs
tions model (Kenny, 1981), we estimated the The methodological and measurement dif-
percent variance in leadership due to trait as ficulties of demonstrating such an ability in
between 49% and 82% In conjunction, the leaders are obvious These difficulties, however,
rotation design and the social relations model rather than causing an abandonment of a trait
seem to suggest that leadership is much more notion of leadership, should spur the devel-
stable across situations than our introductory opment and use of innovative techniques that
texts would indicate can more effectively evaluate this notion.
Regarding our findings, the distinction be- Those who have so strongly endorsed the in-
tween leader emergence and leader effective- teractions theory of leadership have done so
ness needs to be emphasized We have focused because they have learned the wrong lesson
only on factors influencing leader emergence from the failure of past research attempts to
and not effectiveness Traits may determine isolate the leadership trait. This failure should
who emerges as leaders but may not be as not be interpreted as meaning no traits exists
important when considering the subsequent but that our research and measurement strat-
effectiveness of these leaders Likewise, the m- egies were inadequate.
teractionist perspective may be more relevant
m predicting leader effectiveness than leader Reference Notes
emergence. 1 Gibb. C A The emergence ofleaders in small temporary
Because our major result is derived from groups of men (Publication 1392) Ann Arbor Uni-
Barnlund's data, a few cautions regarding his versity of Michigan Microfilms, 1949
2 Kenny, D A , Lord, R G , &Garg, S A social relations
method are m order. Even though Barnlund analysis ofpeer ratings Unpublished manuscript, Uni-
varied both task and group membership, the versity of Connecticut, 1983
setting and experimental instructions were the
same across groups. These aspects of the group References
situation may be as important as task content
in determining leader emergence Further- Barnlund, D C Consistency of emergent leadership in
groups with changing tasks and members Speech
more, the subjects were homogeneous, all being Monographs, 1962, 29, 45-52
male college students. From the interactionist Bass, B M Slogdill's handbook of leadership A survey
perspective, which emphasizes group diversity, of theory and research New York Free Press, 1981
this homogeneity may have artificially raised Bell. G B , & French, R L Consistency of individual
leadership position in small groups of varying mem-
the estimate of X2. These limitations in Barn- bership Journal of Abnormal Social Psychology, 1950,
lund's study make replication all the more 45, 764-767
necessary. Bird, C Social psychology New York Appleton-Century-
Although our analysis reveals that leadership Crofts 1940
is stable, it in no way illuminates what per- Borgatta, E F , Bales, R L , & Couch, A S Some findings
relevant to the great man theory of leadership American
sonality trait or set of behaviors bring about Sociological Review 1954, 19, 755-759
this stability We suspect, however, that re- Carter, L F , & Nixon, M An investigation of the rela-
opening the search for a specific leadership tionship between four criteria of leadership ability for
personality trait may, as before, prove un- three different tasks Journal of Psychology, 1949, 27,
245-261
fruitful. The variability of group situations and Geier, J G A trait approach to the study of leadership
group needs does imply that different leader in small groups Journal of Communication, 1967, 17,
approaches may be needed for different group 316-323
684 DAVID A KENNY AND STEPHEN J. ZACCARO
Gibb, C A Leadership In G Lindzey & E. Aronson in honor of Donald T Campbell San Francisco Jossey-
(Eds.), Handbook ofsocialpsychology (2nd ed.) Reading, Bass, 1981
Mass Addison-Wesley, 1969 Mann, R D A review of the relationships between per-
Hollander, E P , & Julian, J W Studies in leader legitimacy, sonality and performance in small groups. Psychological
influence, and innovation In L Berkowitz (Ed), Ad- Bulletin, 1959, 56. 241-270
vances in experimental social psychology (Vol 5) New
Murphy, A J A study of the leadership process. American
York Academic Press, 1970
Sociological Review, 1941, 6, 674-687
Jenkins, W O A review of leadership studies with particular
reference to military problems Psychological Bulletin, Shenf, M An outline of social psychology New 'York. Har-
1947, 44, 54-79 per & Brothers, 1948
Kenny, D A Interpersonal perception A multivanate Stogdill, R M Personal factors associated with leadership'
round robin analysis In M B Brewer & B E Collins A survey of the literature Journal of Personality, 1948,
(Eds.), Scientific inquiry and the social sciences A volume 25, 35-71
Appendix
Pikm
and
Tikm
n'J
(A5) The mean of Expression 3 for any group of n
n- 1 persons is constant. The expected value of its vari-
ance then equals n/(n — 1) times the expected value
Given Equation A2 and Expression A3, the fourth of Expression 3 squared That expectation times «/
term in Expression A5 becomes (7Z - 1 ) IS
VARIANCE IN LEADERSHIP 685
because
where p equals n(n - 2)/(n - I)2 and a2 = oil ryottm^ 2 fl + X2(n - 1)"]
m
(B-l). ' ^i. » J
The mean of Expression 4 for a group of n persons The
is ordinarily nonzero The mean equals covanance of Expression 3 and 4 equals
because
no {km) 1 r, ((cm)