5/9/2023

Chapter 4

Basic Probability

Definition:
 Probability is a chance that something of interest will happen.
 A chance that an event of interest will occur.
 Probability is expressed as a proportion from 0 to 1.
 Chance can be expressed as a percentage from 0 to 100.

Examples:
1) The probability that it will be sunny tomorrow is 0.30.

2) The probability of getting your money back in a society stokvel is 0.5.

3) There is an 80% chance of failing QTS105D when you skip lectures often.

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Random experiment: This is an experiment that gives different outcomes when repeated under
similar conditions.
• An experiment can have more than one possible outcome.
• All possible outcomes can be listed.
• The outcome that will occur when the experiment is performed depends on a chance.
Examples:
1) Tossing a coin (possible outcomes: head, tail).
2) Drawing a card from a deck of cards (possible outcomes: 13 hearts, 13 clubs, 13 spades, 13
diamonds).

Set: a collection of outcomes denoted by {}.

Sample space: Set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment, denoted by S.

 List all the possible outcomes as S = {}.

Sample point: is a single element in a sample space.

Examples:
Sample point Sample space
1) Tossing a die.
𝑆 = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
2) Tossing a die and a coin.
𝑆 = {ℎ1, ℎ2, ℎ3, ℎ4, ℎ5, ℎ6, 𝑡1, 𝑡2, 𝑡3, 𝑡4, 𝑡5, 𝑡6}

• Event: Subset of a sample space.

 Collection of sample points/outcomes taken from a sample space.
 We denote events by letters.

 Impossible event: An event that cannot happen (has probability of zero).

 Certain event: An event that is certain to happen (has probability of 1).

 Simple events: Events that involves some sample points (outcomes) of the sample
space.

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Examples:

1) Let O denote the event “an odd number is obtained when tossing a die”.

The event is denoted as O = 1, 3, 5

2) Let D denote the event “at least a 1 appears when tossing a die and coin at the
same time”.

The event is denoted as D = ℎ1, 𝑡1

3) Let F denote the event “getting a 7 when a die is rolled”.

The event is denoted as F = impossible event

Venn diagrams: Circles that represents specific events within a square that
represent a sample space.

S Sample space
O 2
4 1
Event
3 5

Compounded events: Events involving more than one event.

Event A and B
A B S

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Complementary event: A complementary event of a specific event are all the

elements in the sample space but not in that event.
Complement of event A is denoted as 𝐴̅ or 𝐴 or 𝐴` .
S
O 2
4 1 𝑂 = {2, 4, 6}
3 5

This is the experiment of tossing a single die. S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. The complement
of the event O = “obtaining an odd number” = {1,3, 5} and 𝑂 = “not obtaining an
odd number” = {2, 4, 6}.

Union and intersection of events

The union of two events A and B, denoted by A or B, is the set of outcomes that are in either A or
in B or in both A and B.
 either A or B or both A and B occur.
 at least one of A or B occurs.

The intersection of two events A and B, denoted by A and B, is the set of outcomes that are in
both A and B.
 both A and B occur at the same time.

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Examples: Consider the events 𝐴 = 1,3,5,7,9,11,13 and B = 2,4,6,7,8,10,11,12

defined on a sample space 𝑆 = 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15 .
Determine the set of the following:
1) 𝐴 or 𝐵
2) 𝐴 and 𝐵
3) 𝐴̅ and 𝐵
4) 𝐴 and 𝐵
Solutions:
1) A or B – all the elements in A or B or in both A and B

𝐴 or 𝐵 = {1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13}

2) 𝐴 and 𝐵 – all the elements in both A and B only

𝐴 and 𝐵 = {7,11}

3) 𝐴̅ and 𝐵 - is the event “an outcome/sample point is in B but not in A”

This notation can be written as 𝐴̅ and 𝐵 = 𝐵 and 𝐴̅
A and 𝐵 𝐴 and 𝐵 B and 𝐴̅
𝐴̅ = 2,4,6,8,10,12,14,15
𝐵 = 2,4,6,7,8,10,11,12
𝐴̅ and 𝐵 = {2,4,6,8,10,12}
4) 𝐴 and 𝐵 - is the event “a sample point is in A but not in B”
This notation can be written as 𝐵 and 𝐴 = 𝐴 and 𝐵

𝐵 = 1,3,5,9,13,14,15
𝐴 = 1,3,5,7,9,11,13
𝐴 and 𝐵 = {1,3,5,9,13}

Show that: a) 𝐴 and 𝐵 = 𝐴 or 𝐵

b) 𝐴 or 𝐵 = 𝐴̅ and 𝐵

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Mutually exclusive (disjoint) events

• Two events A and B are mutually exclusive if they have no elements in common.
• The events cannot occur at the same time.

A B

Not mutually exclusive events

• Two events A and B are not mutually exclusive if they have elements in common.
• The events occur at the same time.
A B

Example of mutually exclusive events:

1) Let F be the event “driving a ford ranger at 17h00” and D the event “being in
the flight at 17h00”
The events F and D cannot occur at the same time (𝐹 and 𝐷 = ∅)

2) Let E be an event “an even number with a single toss of a die” and O the event
“an odd number with a single toss of a die”
𝐸 = 2,4,6 and 𝑂 = 1,3,5
E and O have no outcomes in common (𝐸 and 𝑂 = ∅).

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Definition of Probability
Properties of probability

•0≤𝑃 𝐴 ≤1

• 𝑃 𝐴 = 0, 𝐴 impossible event

• 𝑃 𝐴 = 1, 𝐴 certain event

• 𝑃 𝑆 = 1, 𝑆 overall probability in a sample space

• 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃(𝐴̅) = 1, 𝑃 𝐴̅ = 1 − 𝑃 𝐴 compliment of event 𝐴

• 𝑃 𝐴 or 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃(𝐵) events A and B mutually exclusive

• 𝑃 𝐴 or 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃 𝐵 − 𝑃(𝐴 and 𝐵) events A and B not mutually exclusive

Three approaches to probability

1. Relative frequency approach
If an experiment is repeated 𝑛 times and an event 𝐴 is observed 𝑓 times, then the
probability of occurrence of an event 𝐴 is given by
𝑃 𝐴 = =

Example: A bent coin is tossed 1000 times with heads coming up 528 times.
The probability of obtaining a head is:
𝑃 𝐻 = = 0.5280 (4 decimals)
The probability of obtaining tail is:
𝑃 𝑇 = 𝑃 𝐻 = 1−𝑃 𝐻 = 1− = 0.4720 (4 decimals)
Alternatively, 𝑃 𝑇 = = = 0.4720 (4 decimals)

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A summary of the results in a certain statistics course is shown below.

Results (%) 𝒇
Less than 30 6
30 – 39 26
40 – 49 45
50 – 59 56
60 - 69 42
More than 69 21
𝑛 = 196
I. What is the probability that student’s result is less than 30?
𝑓
𝑃 𝑙𝑒𝑠𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑛 30 = 𝑛 = 6 196 = 0.0306
II. What is the probability that students will pass the course?
56 + 42 + 21 119
𝑃 𝑝𝑎𝑠𝑠 = = 196 = 0.6071
196
III. What is the probability that students will obtain at least 70 for their results?
𝑃 𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 70 = 21 196 = 0.1071

2. Classical definition of probability

Probability of an event with 𝑛 equally likely total numbers of outcomes of which 𝑘
are favorable to some event (assume event 𝐴 ), then the probability that some
event (assume event 𝐴 ) will occur is given by
# number of outcomes favorable to some event
𝑃 𝐴 = =
# number of outcomes in the sample space

Example: Two coins are tossed. Find the probability of getting exactly two heads.

𝑆 = {ℎℎ, ℎ𝑡, 𝑡ℎ, 𝑡𝑡}

Let 𝐴 = {ℎℎ} - getting exactly two heads

#𝐴 1
𝑃 𝐴 = = = 0.2500
#𝑆 4

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3. Subjective approach (Based on the odds in most cases)

 The probabilities assigned to the outcomes of the experiment are subjective to
the person who performs the experiment.
 A subjective probability reflects someone’s personal belief about the likelihood
of an event.
𝑃 𝐴 =degree of belief that 𝐴 is true
Examples:
• Estimate the probability that Kaiser Chiefs will win against Orlando Pirates on their next
match.
The probability will be based on the past performance on both teams.
The probability will be based on how often Chiefs win against Pirates
The probability will be based on the players both team have.
• Estimate the probability that you will buy a new house at the age of 30 years.
• Estimate the probability that you will get hijacked in Johannesburg during the day.

Marginal probabilities
Probabilities involving the occurrence of single event.
𝑃(𝐴) or 𝑃(𝐵) or 𝑃(𝐶) etc.
Joint probabilities
Probabilities involving the occurrence of two or more events.
 The word “or” in probability is an indication of addition
𝑃(𝐴 or 𝐵)

 The word “and” in probability is an indication of multiplication

𝑃(𝐴 and 𝐵)

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Additional rule for probability (Union of events)

Recall that events are mutually exclusive when they have no outcomes in
common or they cannot occur at the same time.

𝑃 𝐴 or 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃(𝐵) mutually exclusive events

Example: If a balanced die is rolled, calculate the probability of getting an even

number less than five or an odd number.
Let E be the event “an even number less than five is obtained”
Let O be the event “an odd number is obtained”.

#𝐸 = 2,4 = 2 & #𝑂 = 1,3,5 = 3 & #𝑆 = {1,2,3,4,5,6} = 6

𝑃 𝐸 or 𝑂 = 𝑃 𝐸 + 𝑃 𝑂 = + = = 0.8333

 Not mutually exclusive are events that have outcomes in common or they occur
at the same time.

𝑃 𝐴 or 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃 𝐵 − 𝑃(𝐴 and 𝐵) Not mutually exclusive events

Example: There are two photocopying machines. Machine 1 is working 50% of the
time and Machine 2 is working 60% of the time. Both machines are
working 30% of the time. Calculate the probability that at least one of the
machines is working.

𝑃 𝑀 = 0.5 𝑃 𝑀 = 0.6 𝑃 𝑀 and 𝑀 = 0.3

𝑃(𝑀 or 𝑀 ) = 𝑃(𝑀 ) + 𝑃(𝑀 ) − 𝑃(𝑀 and 𝑀 )

= 0.5 + 0.6 − 0.3 = 0.8000

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Multiplication rule of probabilities (Conditional probability)

• The Conditional probability of an event A occurring given that another event B has occurred is
given by
( )
𝑃 𝐴𝐵 = , where 𝑃 𝐵 > 0
( )
• The Conditional probability of an event B occurring given that another event A has occurred is
given by
( )
𝑃 𝐵𝐴 = , where 𝑃 𝐴 > 0
( )
Example: The data below shows the gender of 50 employees and the department in which they
work at ABC Ltd.
HR Marketing Finance Total
Male 4 10 5 19
Female 10 16 5 31
Total 14 26 10 50

If one employee is chosen from the 50 employees:

1. What is the probability that the employee will be female (F) if she is from the
HR department (HR)?
10
P(F and HR) 50 10
P F HR = = = = 0.7143
P(HR) 14 14
50

2. What is the probability that the employee will be from the Finance department
(Fin) given that the employee is male (M)?

5
P(Fin and M) 50 5
P Fin M = = = = 0.2632
P(M) 19 19
50

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3. What is the probability that the employee will be in the Marketing (Mark) or in
the Finance department (Fin)?

26 10
P Mark or Fin = P Mark + P Fin = + = 0.7200
50 50

4. What is the probability that the employee will not be from the Marketing
department (Mark)?
26
P Mark = 1 − P Mark = 1 − = 0.4800
50

Exercise: What is the probability that an employee is male or from

finance department?

Multiplication rule of probabilities

• Dependent events
Two events A and B are said to be dependent if

Sampling without
𝑃 𝐴 and 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴 = 𝑃 𝐵 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) replacement

• Independent events
 Two events A and B are said to be independent if

Sampling with
𝑃 𝐴 and 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 𝑃(𝐵) replacement

Example (Dependent events): A box has 12 bulbs, 3 of which are defective. If two bulbs are
selected at random without replacement, what is the probability that both are defective?
3 2
𝑃 𝑏1 and 𝑏2 = 𝑃 𝑏1 𝑃 𝑏2 𝑏1 = × = 0.0455
12 11

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Example (Independent events): Two cards are drawn at random from a deck of
playing cards with replacement. What is the probability that both these cards are
aces?
Solution: There are 4 aces in 52 deck of cards,

4 4 16
𝑃 𝐴 and 𝐴 =𝑃 𝐴 𝑃 𝐴 = × = = 0.0059
52 52 2704

Example (Independent events): A coin is tossed, and a single 6-sided die is rolled.
Find the probability of obtaining a head with a coin and rolling a 3 with the die.
1 1 1
𝑃 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠 and 3 = 𝑃 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠 × 𝑃 3 = =
2 6 12

Counting rules: Multi-step experiments

Case 1:
The number of outcomes for ‘𝑘’ trails each with the same ‘𝑛’ possible outcomes.
 The number of outcomes in 𝑆 = 𝑛 .
Example: How many ways can 10 multiple choice questions with 4 possible answers be
answered?
𝑆 = 4 = 1048576 ways
Case 2:
The number of outcomes for ‘𝑗’ trails each with a different number of ‘𝑛’ outcomes.
 The number of outcomes in 𝑆 = 𝑛 × 𝑛 × ⋯ × 𝑛
Example: A meal consist of a burger, a cool drink and an ice cream. If you need to order a
meal having 4 choices of burger, 3 choices of cool drink and 2 choices of ice
cream, how many ways can you order your meal?

Number of possible orders = 4×3×2 = 24

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The factorial
 The number of ways in which ‘𝑟’ objects can be arranged in a row, without
replacement.
𝑟! = 𝑟 𝑟 − 1 𝑟 − 2 … 2 × 1
• 𝑟! - is known as r factorial
• Note that 0! = 1! = 1

Examples:
1. In how many ways can 5 books be arranged in a book shelve?
The 5 books must be placed in 5 positions from 1st to 5th.
No. of ways = 5! = 5 × 4 × 3 × 2 × 1 = 120
2. Six athletes compete in a race. The number of order arrangements for
completing the race.
6! =6 × 5 × 4 × 3 × 2 × 1= 720 different ways

Permutations and combinations

Combination
• A combination is the number of different selections of a group of items where
order does not matter.
• The number of combinations of a group of 𝑛 objects taken 𝑟 at a time is
calculated from
n n!
C
n r   
 r  r !( n  r )!
Permutation
• A permutation is the number of different arrangements of a group of items
where order matters.
• The number of permutations of 𝑛 objects taken 𝑟 at a time is calculated from
n!
n Pr 
(n  r )!

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Examples:
Combination - order does not matter
1) Four ministers (A, B, C, D) serve on a board of cabinet. Two people are to be
chosen from these 4 people. In how many ways can this be done?

4!
n Cr  4 C2  6
2!(4  2)!

Permutation - order matters

2) Four ministers (A, B, C, D) serve on a board of cabinet. A chairman and vice-
chairman are to be chosen from these 4 people. In how many ways can this be
done?
4!
n Pr  4 P2   12
(4  2)!

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