C Raja Mohan Writes - Rising Power, Rising Responsibilities - Five Geopolitical Challenges Before Modi 3.0 - The Indian Express

C Raja Mohan writes: Rising power, rising responsibilities — five geopolitical challenges bef... about:reader?url=https%3A%2F%2Findianexpress.com%2Farticle%2Fopinion%2Fcolumns...
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C Raja Mohan writes: Rising

power, rising responsibilities —
five geopolitical challenges
before Modi 3.0
C. Raja Mohan
7–8 minutes
As the NDA government settles down to govern in the

third term of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, five new
themes will shape its engagement with the world. Delhi
now faces an international context that is quite different
1 of 8 6/19/2024, 1:34 AM
from 2014 or 2019. Deep structural changes are unfolding

in the international system that demand major adjustments
in India’s worldview and adaptations to its domestic
policies. The five imperatives outlined below are by no
means the only challenges that will confront the new
government, but they are among the main geopolitical
imperatives.
The first is the return of great-power rivalry that demands
an approach driven by interest rather than ideology. The
renewed conflict between the West on the one hand and
China and Russia on the other has begun to produce a
very different set of external conditions for the conduct of
India’s international relations than the one it had to deal
with in 1991. At the end of the Cold War marked by the
collapse of the Soviet Union, Delhi had the room to
engage with all the great powers without looking over its
shoulder.
It was widely presumed that India can replace its policy of
2 of 8 6/19/2024, 1:34 AM
“non-alignment” between competing powers with the idea

of “multi-alignment” — of cooperating with all the great
powers. However, several trends make the idea of “multi-
alignment” problematic. So long as the major powers got
along well with each other, it did not matter what you
called your policy. The conflict between the great powers
has intensified since 2019, when Modi’s second term
began. The freedom to do what you want with each one of
them without incurring costs with the other has begun to
reduce.
Multi-alignment also gives a false sense of symmetry in
the relations with the major powers. In the real world,
though, there is considerable variation in the current
economic and security salience of these relations and their
future possibilities. For example, the trade and technology
relationship with the US and Europe far outweighs that
with Russia. While Moscow was a major defence partner
in the past, Delhi’s security ties are far more diverse now.
3 of 8 6/19/2024, 1:34 AM
India’s large trade relationship with China is marred by

massive deficits and security challenges. Equally
important is the logic of geography: Unlike in the Cold War,
when the great powers were some distance away, today
the second-most important power, China, is India’s
neighbour. And to make matters worse, Delhi is locked in
a wide-ranging conflict with Beijing that is at odds with
Washington and getting closer to Moscow.
The expansion of India’s own weight in the international
system has certainly given some space to Delhi in
navigating the new great-power rivalry. But that space is
limited and is shrinking. This means India will have to
make choices on the issues at hand in the unfolding great-
power contestation. Ducking can’t be a permanent
strategy. These choices on each issue will have to be
based on a cold calculation of material interests and not
slogans like “multi-alignment” and “multipolarity”.
4 of 8 6/19/2024, 1:34 AM
Second is the changing structure of the global economy

that demands more reform at home. If India adapted to the
logic of economic globalisation at the turn of the 1990s, it
must now deal with the impact of geopolitics on the global
economy. To be sure, the Modi government has broken
away from the faith in economic globalisation since it
walked out of the Asia-wide free trade negotiations
(RCEP) in 2019. And the efforts of major Western
economies to reduce the dependence on China have
opened new opportunities for India to enhance its
geoeconomic position.
However, Delhi is some distance away from seizing those
possibilities. Delhi does chant the mantra of trusted
geographies, resilient supply chains, and freer trade with
strategic partners. But it is yet to translate those slogans
into concrete outcomes for trade cooperation. Meanwhile,
5 of 8 6/19/2024, 1:34 AM
there is concern that the government’s capacity for much-

needed reforms to cope with the new global dynamic is
constrained by the outcome of the 2024 election.
Dispelling the fears about the government’s will and
capacity to pursue domestic economic transformation will
be a major task for the new government.
Three, the unfolding technological revolution promises to
redistribute global power and is now an integral part of
great-power competition. This again has opened the door
for accelerated advanced technological development in
India. The initiative on critical and emerging technologies
(iCET) with the US, which was reviewed by the national
security advisors of the two countries this week in Delhi,
points to that. To take full advantage of the new
possibilities, though, India will need a modernisation of the
advanced S&T sector that has been under the domination
of state monopolies.
Four, Delhi must adapt to the rise of new regions that
6 of 8 6/19/2024, 1:34 AM
break down old regional categories. The emergence of the

Indo-Pacific over the last decade cutting across many
traditionally defined regions such as South Asia and
Southeast Asia is one example. The financial power of the
Arab Gulf, Africa’s rapid economic growth, and Europe’s
southern outreach point to the exciting new opportunities
for India to the west of the Subcontinent. The India-Middle
East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) is just one sign of
the things to come. Delhi must now invest more resources
— diplomatic, political, economic, and security — in
engaging with Africa, Southern Europe, and the Middle
East and erase the old mental maps that saw these
regions as separate entities.
Five, Delhi needs to tone down its expansive rhetoric on
India’s rise. There is no doubt that India, well on its way to
becoming the third-largest economy, is climbing up the
global hierarchy. But its aggregate GDP of nearly $4 trillion
should not obscure the fact that India’s per capita GDP is
7 of 8 6/19/2024, 1:34 AM
barely $2,800. If India’s developmental challenges are

huge, so is the problem of dealing with growing inequality
within. India’s growing global influence must, in essence,
be about leveraging the world for the rapid expansion of
domestic prosperity and equity.
Delhi must also remember that world history is littered with
rising powers that crashed on their way up the global
order. While its newfound self-assurance is welcome,
Delhi should avoid the evident dangers of overreach.
Overestimating India’s strength and underestimating the
challenges at hand lead to geopolitical hubris and
complacency in policymaking that could cost Delhi dearly.
The writer is visiting professor at the Institute of South
Asian Studies, National University of Singapore, and
contributing editor on international affairs for The Indian
Express
8 of 8 6/19/2024, 1:34 AM

C Raja Mohan Writes - Rising Power, Rising Responsibilities - Five Geopolitical Challenges Before Modi 3.0 - The Indian Express

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C Raja Mohan writes: Rising power, rising responsibilities — five geopolitical challenges bef... about:reader?url=https%3A%2F%2Findianexpress.com%2Farticle%2Fopinion%2Fcolumns...

C Raja Mohan writes: Rising

As the NDA government settles down to govern in the

from 2014 or 2019. Deep structural changes are unfolding

“non-alignment” between competing powers with the idea

India’s large trade relationship with China is marred by

Second is the changing structure of the global economy

there is concern that the government’s capacity for much-

break down old regional categories. The emergence of the

barely $2,800. If India’s developmental challenges are

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