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Applying Minimum Night Flow to Estimate Water Loss Using Statistical

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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-012-0247-2

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Applying Minimum Night Flow to Estimate
Water Loss Using Statistical Modeling: A
Case Study in Kinta Valley, Malaysia

Jaber M. A. Alkasseh, Mohd Nordin

Adlan, Ismail Abustan, Hamidi Abdul
Aziz & Abu Bakar Mohamad Hanif

Water Resources Management

An International Journal - Published
for the European Water Resources
Association (EWRA)

ISSN 0920-4741
Volume 27
Number 5

Water Resour Manage (2013)

27:1439-1455
DOI 10.1007/s11269-012-0247-2

1 23
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1 23
 Author's personal copy
Water Resour Manage (2013) 27:1439–1455
DOI 10.1007/s11269-012-0247-2

Applying Minimum Night Flow to Estimate Water Loss

Using Statistical Modeling: A Case Study in Kinta Valley,
Malaysia

Jaber M. A. Alkasseh & Mohd Nordin Adlan & Ismail Abustan &
Hamidi Abdul Aziz & Abu Bakar Mohamad Hanif

Received: 26 May 2012 / Accepted: 19 December 2012 /

Published online: 10 January 2013
# Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Abstract Minimum night flow (MNF) is a common method used to evaluate water loss in a
water network. In 2010, the average percentage of non-revenue water for the state of Perak
in Malaysia was 29.4 %, a figure which resulted in major financial, supply, and pressure
losses, as well as excessive energy consumption. In this study, a statistical analysis of the
water distribution network and a modeling of MNF were carried out to estimate water loss in
Kinta Valley, Perak. Flow and pressure for 361 zones were monitored for 24 h using
PrimeWorks software (version: 1.5.57.0). Thirty study zones were randomly selected from
361 zones. MNF was screened within the time band of 1:00 am to 5:00 am. A total of 20
factors for physical, hydraulic, and operational variables were selected and correlated with
MNF (L/s). Multiple linear regression was used as a statistical technique to determine factors
that contributed to MNF (L/s). Consequently, pipe length (m) and pipe age (year) were the
main contributors to MNF (L/s). The statistical model was finalized with R-Sq 0.706 and
then improved to R-Sq 0.779. Results of the study revealed that 84.9 % of MNF frequencies
for the 30 study areas were found at the time band 2:15 am to 4:15 am; therefore, the mean
MNF for each zone in 2010 was determined to be between 1:00 am and 5:00 am. Statistical
analyses showed that number of connections, total length of pipe, weighted mean of age of
pipe, and type of pipe (100 mm asbestos cement) contributed to MNF. Moreover, approx-
imately 97.5 % of registered repairs were conducted on pipes with small diameters of less
than or equal to 50 mm. Pipes within this size range are usually used as service pipes and
service connections.

Keywords Minimum night flow . Multiple linear regression . PrimeWorks . Water distribution
system . Non-revenue water

J. M. A. Alkasseh : M. N. Adlan (*) : I. Abustan : H. A. Aziz

School of Civil Engineering, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 14300 Nibong Tebal, Penang, Malaysia
e-mail: cenordin@eng.usm.my

A. B. M. Hanif
Perak Water Board, Jalan St John, 30000 Ipoh, Perak, Malaysia
 Author's personal copy
1440 J.M.A. Alkasseh et al.

1 Introduction

Water loss is considered as a global problem and major issues in water management that
requires a solid and effective management strategy based on a better understanding of the
causes of water loss and the factors that influence it (Koelbl et al. 2009). Approximately one-
third of total abstracted water for urban uses is either lost because of leaks and pipe bursts
occurring in water distribution systems (WDSs), or not included in revenue and financing
systems (Mounce et al. 2010; Nazif et al. 2010). Water losses are occurring in both
developed and developing countries throughout the world (Thornton et al. 2008). Estimated
non-revenue water (NRW) levels for developed and developing countries were 15 % and
35 % of the annual system input volume, respectively (Kanakoudis and Tsitsifli 2012). The
Global Water Supply and Sanitation Assessment 2000 Report pointed out that NRW levels
in Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and North America are 39 %, 42 %, 42 %,
and 15 %, respectively (WHO-UNICEF-WSSCC 2000; Islam et al. 2011). Moreover, the
average water loss level in European Union (EU) countries is about 20 %, whereas several
countries have water loss levels lower than 10 % (Öztürk et al. 2007).
A large proportion of water loss in distribution networks is common in many Asian cities,
averaging 35 % in the region’s cities and even reaching much higher levels (Frauendorfer et
al. 2010). A recent report by the Asian Development Bank pointed out that NRW levels in
47 water utility systems across Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Vietnam,
make up an average of 30 % of water produced, with wide variations among individual
utilities ranging from 4 % to 65 % (Kingdom et al. 2006; Mutikanga and Sharma 2012). In
Malaysia, conservation of water in distribution systems has been practiced since the 1980s
(Adlan et al. 2009). Controlling and reducing NRW levels are a high priority in the agenda of
the Malaysian government. Hence, RM 1088.3 million was budgeted in the Ninth Malaysia
Plan to reduce NRW level from 38 % (2007) to 30 % (2011) (Ku-Mahamud et al. 2007). The
Malaysian Water Industry Guide (MWIG 2011) reported that the average percentages of
NRW in Malaysia and in the state of Perak in 2010 were 36.4 % and 29.4 %, respectively.
These figures resulted in major financial, supply, and pressure losses, as well as excessive
energy consumption (pumping) and the associated carbon footprint (Boulos and AbouJaoude
2011). When worldwide water loss average is estimated to be 30 %, the same portion of energy
is lost and leakage levels are responsible for more than 25 % of total energy used (Kanakoudis et
al. 2011a; Kanakoudis et al. 2012). Excessive leakage can also cause contaminant intrusion
under low- or negative-pressure conditions within a pipe, which may lead to harmful or serious
water quality incidents (Boulos and AbouJaoude 2011; Mutikanga et al. 2012). By contrast,
financial, environmental, and social benefits may be acquired by improving management of
WDSs, especially in reducing underground leaks (water loss) and unaccounted water (Uyak et
al. 2007; Kanakoudis et al. 2011b).
Water losses in a WDS comprise apparent losses and real losses (Kanakoudis and Tsitsifli
2010; Kanakoudis and Tsitsifli 2012). To estimate real losses, minimum night flow (MNF)
can be an indicator of distribution leakage and consumer wastage. MNF is the measured
flow into a controlled district metered area (DMA) of a network during the period with
minimum demand, that is, between 1:00 am and 4:00 am (Johnson et al. 2009). A DMA is
defined as a discrete area of distribution caused by the closure of valves, in which the
quantity of water entering and leaving the area is metered (Morrison et al. 2007). A
permanently monitored DMA is considered to be the most effective tool for reducing the
duration of unreported leakage (Sturm and Thornton 2005). Analysis of DMA flows allows
estimation of leakage when the flow into the DMA is at its minimum, which occurs at night
when customer demand is at its lowest, and therefore, leakage component is at its highest
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Applying Minimum Night Flow to Estimate Water Loss 1441

percentage of the flow (Morrison 2004). Condition of the distribution system, as well as the
nature of consumer demand, can have a significant effect on MNF (Johnson et al. 2009).
DMAs for monitoring must not be too large to maintain variations during night
consumption within a tolerable range. An appropriate size would be about 5,000
inhabitants or a pipe length of 15 km (Kober 2007). DMA size strongly depends
on the criteria, such as population density (in urban areas vary between 500 and 3000
properties), customer connection density, housing type, pressure requirements, infra-
structure condition, and variation in ground level (Morrison et al. 2007; Christodoulou
and Deligianni 2010; Christodoulou et al. 2010).
Based on the concepts of bursts and background estimates (Lambert and Morrison 1996)
and by using water loss control methods and technologies (McKenzie and Seago 2005;
Thornton et al. 2008), several studies were conducted to measure and analyze night flow and
pressure of residential DMAs, and to eventually evaluate NRW level and losses in water
distribution networks, as summarized in Table 1.
Results of these studies showed that residential demand generally decreased at night, and
the maximum decrease was observed from 3:00 am to 4:00 am (Tabesh et al. 2009;
Karadirek et al. 2012). Typically, about 6 % of the population will be active during minimum
nighttime flow period (Hunaidi and Brothers 2007; Tabesh et al. 2009). For flow measure-
ment that exhibited short period with flow rate almost constant, it can be implied that there is
no residential demand during that period. Subsequently, background leakage level may be
assumed to be equal to MNF rate (Hunaidi and Brothers 2007).
Hunaidi (2010) developed an empirical model for estimating background leakage rates.
The empirical model for estimating background leakage rates was as follows:
 N1

P
Night background leakageðL=hÞ ¼ A  Lm þ B  Nc þ C  15  Lp  Nc 
71
where P is the average pipe pressure in psi; the power exponent N1 is equal to 0.55, 1.11,
1.35, and 1.5 for asbestos cement (AC), ductile iron (DI), cast iron (CI), and polyvinyl
chloride (PVC) pipes, respectively; Lm is the total length of distribution of main pipes in km;
Nc is the total number of service connections; Lp is the average length of service connection
pipes between curb stops and customer water meters in m; and the constants A, B, and C are
equal to 24 L/km/h, 1.5 L/connection/h, and 0.4 L/connection/hour corresponding to rates of
leakage components at 71 psi (50 m) pressure in distribution mains, service connection pipes
from mains to curb stops, and 15 meter-long service connection pipes after curb stops,
respectively.

Table 1 Methods for estimating real losses in previous studies

Methodology Country Reference

DMA, MNF Canada Hunaidi and

Brothers 2007
Hydraulic simulation model, such as EPANET and geographic information Iran Tabesh et al. 2009
system (GIS) models, DMA, MNF, annual water balance
Hydraulic simulation model, such as EPANET, DMA, MNF Brazil Cheung et al. 2010
Stochastic model, DMA, MNF Portugal Loureiro et al. 2010
Hydraulic simulation model, such as EPANET and GIS models, DMA, MNF, Turkey Karadirek et al.
SCADA data system 2012
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1442 J.M.A. Alkasseh et al.

Water losses vary from system to system, and may be influenced by network length,
number of service connections, pressure fluctuation over the day, pipe material, soil char-
acteristics, construction quality, level of internal and external pipe protection, kind of
maintenance and upkeep of the network, leaks, bursts, and age of the system (Kanakoudis
2004; Çakmakcı et al. 2007; Uyak et al. 2007; Gomes et al. 2011). Pressure is one of the
major factors that influence leakage in the WDSs (Gopan et al. 2010; Nazif et al. 2010), and
this can be controlled by using pressure reducing valves (PRV), which could cause signif-
icant water-loss savings in WDSs (Nazif et al. 2010; Gomes et al. 2011).
Several studies had described significant variables related to structural deterioration of water
networks resulting in high burst rates. These variables may be grouped into four categories: (1)
structural or physical, (2) external or environmental, (3) internal or hydraulic, and (4) mainte-
nance variables. Structural or physical variables include pipe length, diameter, age, and
material. Water pressure is considered as an internal or hydraulic variable. Operational
factors are directly related to water management practices (Shamir and Howard 1979; Røstum
2000; Christodoulou and Deligianni 2010; Fadaee and Tabatabaei 2010; Tsitsifli et al. 2011).
Several studies showed that the greatest proportion of losses occurred in service connections
rather than in mains, except in networks characterized by a low density of connections
(Kanakoudis 2004; Warren 2005; Cannarozzo et al. 2006; Çakmakcı et al. 2007; Uyak et al.
2007; Thornton et al. 2008; Mutikanga et al. 2011). For pipe leakage calculation, Tabesh et al.
(2009) considered pipe length is important factor rather than the number of connections.
In this context, Çakmakcı et al. (2007) presented the major causes of water loss in Turkey.
They noted that average pipe lifetime for AC pipes was 30 years, whereas that for plastic
was approximately 50 years. Ductile iron pipes, which represented less than 20 % of the
pipelines in larger cities, were beyond their expected lifetime and might need replacement.
Optimum replacement time for a single pipe or a section of a network should be determined
through a technique-economic analysis that considers all kinds of costs referring to the repair
or replacement of trouble-causing components of a network (Shamir and Howard 1979;
Andreou et al. 1987; Kanakoudis and Tolikas 2001; Davis et al. 2008). For examples, the
calculated economic lifetime of a 100 mmAC pipe is 47 years (Davis et al. 2008).
As pipes get older, they become prone to breakage (Marks and Jeffrey 1985; Kober 2007;
Uyak et al. 2007; Christodoulou et al. 2010; Palau et al. 2012). The average life of a pipe is
normally between 40 years and 100 years (Stacha 1978; Hoye 1980; O’Day 1982; Walski
and Pelliccia 1982; Cabrera et al. 1995). The number of leaks in a given pipe increases
linearly (Shamir and Howard 1979; Kettler and Goulter 1985; Cabrera et al. 1995) and
exponentially (Shamir and Howard 1979; Walski and Pelliccia 1982; Marks and Jeffrey
1985; Andreou et al. 1987; Kanakoudis and Tolikas 2001) with its age. Based on statistical
data on water losses, Çakmakcı et al. (2007) stated that the relationship between water loss
and the age of a WDS does not show a significant correlation.
Deterioration of water distribution networks generally causes a progressive increase in
main failures (O’Day 1982; Pelletier et al. 2003; Christodoulou and Deligianni 2010;
Christodoulou et al. 2010). Results from studies done in United Kingdom showed that the
worst performing pipes were old cast iron pipes that have been under the ground for many
years. AC pipes, which were already coming to the end of their useful life, ranked next in
poor performance. (Kettler and Goulter 1985; Goulter and Kazemi 1989; Goulter et al. 1993;
Kanakoudis and Tolikas 2001; Walton and Al-Muhairi 2008). PVC and iron pipes both
ranked third among pipes with the highest failure rates; whereas polyethylene pipes recorded
the lowest failure rates (Walton and Al-Muhairi 2008).
Pipes with different diameters have different break rates. Smaller mains have higher break
rates and are, therefore, good candidates for replacement (O’Day 1982; Kettler and Goulter
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Applying Minimum Night Flow to Estimate Water Loss 1443

1985; Andreou et al. 1987; Clark and Goodrich 1989; Male et al. 1990; Røstum 2000;
Kanakoudis and Tolikas 2001; Pelletier et al. 2003; Christodoulou et al. 2010; Mutikanga et
al. 2011). Røstum (2000) confirmed that pipe diameters less than or equal to 200 mm have large
number of failures. This may be due to reduced pipe strength and wall thickness, different
construction standards, and less reliable joints of smaller pipes. Lower velocities in smaller
pipes may initiate settlement of suspended materials from the water, thus creating a conducive
environment for bacteria growth. By contrast, larger pipes are heavier, thus settlement occurs
during or immediately after installation. In addition, smaller diameter pipes have lower water
pressure and moments of inertia, making them more susceptible to pipe failures. Larger pipes
have higher water pressure and moments of inertia (Makar et al. 2001).
Majority of previous studies generally estimated water losses in water distribution networks by
applying a stochastic model (Loureiro et al. 2010), annual water balance and MNF analyses
combined with hydraulic simulation models (such as EPANET and GIS models) (Tabesh et al.
2009; Cheung et al. 2010; Karadirek et al. 2012), and developing an empirical model for
estimating background leakage rates (Hunaidi 2010). Other studies proposed statistical modeling
to predict variations in pipe failure rates in water main pipes (Shamir and Howard 1979; Walski
and Pelliccia 1982; Kettler and Goulter 1985; Marks and Jeffrey 1985; Goulter et al. 1993;
Kanakoudis and Tolikas 2001; Pelletier et al. 2003; Cannarozzo et al. 2006)
However, previous studies were focused on developing models that predict pipe bursts as a
function of several variables, such as pipe age, type, and diameter; and occurrence of previous
bursts. Furthermore, models of prediction costs and bursts are combined to predict the cost of
repairing main bursts as well as replacement of pipes. In this study, modeling MNF was carried
out to estimate water loss in Kinta Valley, Perak. A total of 20 factors for physical, hydraulic,
and operational variables were selected. The detailed contribution of each factor to water loss
was not fully clarified in previous studies. Considering this gap and using statistical analysis,
the present study attempted to determine the contributions of major factors that affect water loss
to a water supply network in Malaysia (Kinta District, Perak State).

2 The Study Area

The study area is situated in the Kinta District, one of the ten administrative districts of the state
of Perak, Malaysia. Perak is considered as the second largest state in Peninsular Malaysia in
terms of land area (21,006 km2). Ipoh city is the capital of Perak which is in Kinta Valley
(Gazzaz et al. 2012). The map (Fig. 1) shows the state of Perak and Kinta District. According to
the MWIG (2011), approximately 99.2 % of Perak’s population has accessed to water supply.
The total number of connections was 665,674 (88.3 % domestic and 11.7 % non-domestic), the
total length of different types of pipes was approximately 10,792 km, serving a population of
224/km. The NRW percentage for Perak in 2010 was 29.4 %. International Water Association
(IWA) and other international organizations recommend the use of the key indicators: NRW,
physical losses, and commercial losses, all measured in L/connection/day; as for physical losses
alone, IWA recommends the use of m3/km of pipeline/day (McKenzie and Seago 2005;
Liemberger et al. 2007; Kanakoudis and Tsitsifli 2010; Wyatt 2010). Consequently, the NRW
for Perak in 2010 was 480 L/con./day and 29 m3/km of pipe/day (MWIG 2011).
Previously, Adlan et al. (2009) conducted a study at a single zone (Taman Anda, Ipoh) of the
Kinta District to quantify the amount of NRW based on pressure reduction in the network, and
to reduce leakage in the water supply system. The DMA has 476 service connections with the
total length of 4242 m for the distribution system. The study included DMA management and
night flow analysis from 12 midnight to 4:00 am. MNF was estimated based on 30 random
 Author's personal copy
1444 J.M.A. Alkasseh et al.

Fig. 1 Kinta District, Perak

samples from the consumers’ water meters between 2:00 am to 4:00 am. Overall percentage of
leakage was 26 %. This study was extended in the present work, which focused on identifying
the MNF and the leakage, and the eventual assessment of water loss for the whole Kinta District
where the results could be generalized for the remaining districts.

3 Methodology

3.1 Data Collection and Analysis

Out of 361 zones, 30 DMAs were randomly selected. The 30 DMAs were chosen using the
“random” function of Excel 2007. Using PrimeWorks (version: 1.5.57.0), data of flow and
pressure during 2010 for the 30 DMAs were collected from the records of the water network
in the study areas. Flow and pressure were monitored every 15 min for 24 h. Automatic and
continuous monitoring were achieved through the implementation of DMA management
using an electronic data logger. The pressure entering the zones was controlled through PRV.
Via PrimeWorks, data of flow and pressure were plotted, as shown in Fig. 2. Sorting and
filtering the recorded data of minimum flow for 30 DMAs for time interval between 1:00 am
to 5:00 am was carried out as MNF using Microsoft Office Excel 2007.
The MNF and the related time were screened in the time band 1:00 am to 5:00 am. For
each day, one recorded data of MNF in the time band 1:00 am to 5:00 am were reported. The

Fig. 2 MNF (3.11 L/s, 4:00 am) of one zone, IP178 TMN MAJU RAPAT for the date 04-05/07/2012
 Author's personal copy
Applying Minimum Night Flow to Estimate Water Loss 1445

frequency of the MNF’s occurrence in 30 study areas was analyzed using Minitab version 16
for 15 min each to investigate the time band of the MNF; one frequency equals one data per
day. Fig. 3 demonstrates the frequency of MNF in 30 zones in 2010. The total frequencies
(days) was 4,202.
Based on the frequency of time for the MNF, the mean MNF for each zone in 2010 was
determined to be between 1:00 am and 5:00 am. The mean of pressure during that time
period was determined.
According to the LAP, the characteristic of the pipe networks for particular zones was
identified; mainly, the total length of pipe network (meter), number of connections, age of
pipes (year), and type of reticulation pipe (Table 2).
Each pipe in the network has different ages; hence, the term weighted mean is the best
estimate of the mean age of a particular zone. The pipes with more length weighted more
higher than those with fewer lengths (Spatz 2010). For example, the weighted mean age of
pipes for the zone IP 64,TAMAN ZARIB is 14.15 year:

2047  21 þ 9084  12 þ 1016  21 þ 819  12 þ 298  15

Weighted mean of ageðyearÞ ¼ ¼ 14:15
2047 þ 9084 þ 1016 þ 819 þ 298

Table 2 shows each study zone has different type of reticulation pipe. Therefore, pipe
diameters and types were screened for 30 zones. The pipe diameters were categorized into
D100, D160, D200, D250, and D300 mm, whereas types of pipe were AC, CI, HDPE,
UPVC, DI, and MS. A correlation of the MNF mean was applied to different pipe diameters
and types of pipes.
The total length of each type of pipe for the 30 selected zones is illustrated in Fig. 4a and
b. The total length of pipe network for the 30 selected zones is 194,459 m with about 22350
service connections. Pipes with diameters less than or equal to 200 mm were approximately
95.1 % of the total length. The majority of pipes are 100 mmAC, 150 mmAC, and 150 mm
UPVC at 24.9 %, 18.2 %, and 31.4 %, respectively. The percentage of AC pipes is
approximately 47.4 % of the total length.
Approximately 98.7 % of the pipe length were less than or equal to 50 years, whereas the
majority of the pipe length (85.4 %) for the 30 studied areas were found between 11 and 40 years
and about 56.4 % of pipe length was found between 20 and 40 years, as shown in Fig. 5a.

Fig. 3 The frequency of MNF of

600
30 zones in 2010 552
533
494
500 465 459

400
Frequency

350

300 275
257

200 183
157 159

95 95
100
48 46
25
9
0
AM AM AM AM AM AM AM AM AM AM AM AM AM AM AM AM AM
00 : 15 : 30 : 45 : 00 : 15 : 30 : 45 : 00 : 15 : 30 : 45 : 00 : 15 : 30 : 45 : 00
1: 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5
MNFtime
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1446 J.M.A. Alkasseh et al.

Table 2 Characteristic of pipe networks for the zone IP 64,TAMAN ZARIB.

Name of zone No of Total length of reticulation Type of reticulation Age of pipes

Connection system(meter) pipe (year)

IP 64,TAMAN 1,260 2,047 150 mm HDPE 21

ZARIB 9,084 150 mm UPVC 12
1,016 200 mm MS 21
819 200 mm UPVC 12
298 300 mm CLMS 15

From Fig. 5b, the weighted mean of age of the WDSs for the 30 selected zones is ranged
between 10 and 61.52 years. About 70 % of the selected DMAs were between 20 and
61.52 years. Almost 30 % of the selected DMAs were between 30 and 61.52 years.
Fig. 6 and 7 show the frequency of repairs for each pipe diameter and type of leakage for
the 30 selected zones in 2010. Approximately 97.5 % of the registered pipe repairs were
found in small diameters pipes of less than or equal to 50 mm which refer to the service pipes
and service connections.
In order to estimate the water loss in a WDS in Kinta Valley, Perak, Malaysia, statistical
analysis of the water distribution network and modeling of MNF were carried out. Multiple
linear regression (MLR) was used as a statistical technique to determine the factors that

Fig. 4 a The total length of each

type of pipe of over 5,000 m. b
The total length of each type of
pipe of less 5,000 m
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Applying Minimum Night Flow to Estimate Water Loss 1447

Fig. 5 a The age of pipe. b The

Weighted mean of age of pipe

contributed to the MNF. Bachok (2011) summarized the steps for analyzing the MLR,
including descriptive statistics, bivariable analysis, building the preliminary model, checking
the interaction and multicollinearity, checking the model assumptions, interpreting the final
model, and presenting results.
Also, a paired t-test was done to check if any statistically significant difference existed
between the actual MNF (L/s) and predicted MNF (L/s) (Ramasamy et al. 2003). For a
paired t-test, the following conditions should be true: (i) test variables are numerical; (ii)
each sample should be randomly selected; (iii) the data are dependent of each other or
paired; and (iv) the observation differences are normally distributed (unless the sample size
≥30 cases per group) (Hussain et al. 2011).

Fig. 6 The frequency of repairs

of each diameter in 2010 347
350

300

250
Frequency

200
178

150

100

50

1 2 3 8 1 8
0
300mm 200mm 150mm 100mm 50mm 32mm 25mm 20mm
Pipe size (mm)
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1448 J.M.A. Alkasseh et al.

Fig. 7 The frequency of type of 500

495
leakage in the period 2010

400

Frequency
300

200

100
37
2 13
1
0
Pipe & Connection Service Service pipe Main Pipe Service connection Main connection

Type of Leakage

4 Results and Discussions

Figure 3 shows 84.9 % of the frequencies of MNF for the 30 study areas were found at the
time band 2:15 am to 4:15 am. However, the minimum frequencies were observed at 1:00
am, 1:15 am, and 5:00 am.
The MNF time band (2:15 am to 4:15 am) is consistent with those obtained by the previous
researchers (Hunaidi and Brothers 2007; Adlan et al. 2009; Johnson et al. 2009; Cheung et al.
2010; Loureiro et al. 2010). For example, the minimum flow rate was observed in Canada in the
time band 1:30–3:30 am (Hunaidi and Brothers 2007), in Malaysia in the time band 2:00–4:00
am (Adlan et al. 2009), in United Kingdom (UK) in the time band 1:00–4:00 am (Johnson et al.
2009), in Brazil in the time band 1:00–4:00 am (Cheung et al. 2010) and in Portugal in the time
band 2:00–5:00 am (Loureiro et al. 2010).
According to the LAP, the characteristics of the pipe networks for the particular
zones were identified, including total length of the pipe network (meter), number of
connections, age of pipes (year), and type of reticulation pipe. Using a level of
significance of α=0.05, a correlation test of MNF mean (L/s) as a dependent variable
was performed to the independent variables, namely, number of connections, total length
of pipe in each zone, weighted mean of the age of pipes, and mean of pressure in each
zone.
The correlation test shows a significant linear relationship between the number of
connections (p value, 0.001), total pipe length (p value<0.001), weighted mean age of pipe
(p value, 0.049) and MNF mean (L/s). The relationship between the mean of pressure and
the MNF mean (L/s) was not significant (p value 0.36), which may be explained by the use
of the PRV. The simple linear regressions (SLRs) of the independent variables are summa-
rized in Table 3.
The present finding regarding the significant relationships of the MNF mean (L/s) to the
number of connections, total length of pipe in each zone, and weighted mean age of pipe is
consistent with those obtained by previous workers (Warren 2005; Uyak et al. 2007; Gomes
et al. 2011). However, the advantage of the present study over the past studies is that the
models developed were able to determine the contribution of each factor of water loss. This
can be determined from the equations shown in Table 3. The insignificant relationships of
the MNF mean (L/s) with pressure may be explained using the PRV to control the pressure,
which is in agreement with the previous works (Gomes et al. 2011). In contrast to Çakmakcı
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Applying Minimum Night Flow to Estimate Water Loss 1449

Table 3 SLR and MLR

Variable SLR/MLR R-square

Number of connections MNF (L/s)=0.45+6.11*10−3 (CON) 0.309

Total pipe length (m)
Weighted mean age of pipe (year)
The mean of pressure (m)
All variables
MNF (L/s)=−0.233+8.07*10−4 (RL) 0.589
MNF (L/s)=2.06+0.118 (WMA) 0.131
MNF (L/s)=3.06+6.66*10−2 (PR) 0.03
MNF (L/s)=−3.72+1.10*10−3 (CON)+7.22*10−4 0.713
(RL)+0.111(WMA)+1.55*10−2 (PR)

et al. (2007), the relationships of the MNFmean (L/s) with the weighted mean age of
pipe is significant, which is consistent with that of previous studies (Hoye 1980;
Clark and Goodrich 1989; Cabrera et al. 1995; Kober 2007; Uyak et al. 2007).
A correlation test of the MNFmean (L/s) was applied to different pipe diameters and
different types of pipes (Table 4). The correlation test proved that the relationship between
D100 mm and MNF mean (L/s) was significant.
The present finding of the significant relationships of the MNFmean (L/s) with the pipe
D100 mm is consistent with that obtained in previous workers (O’Day 1982; Kettler and
Goulter 1985; Andreou et al. 1987; Røstum 2000; Pelletier et al. 2003). Figures 6 and 7
confirm that approximately 97.5 % of the registered pipe repairs in 2010 for the 30 selected
zones are found in pipes with small diameters less than or equal to 50 mm; approximately
97.5 % of the registered pipe repairs in the same period were found in the service pipes and
service connections. This result is consistent with those obtained by previous workers
(Pelletier et al. 2003; Kanakoudis 2004; Cannarozzo et al. 2006; Çakmakcı et al. 2007;
Uyak et al. 2007; Thornton et al. 2008; Christodoulou et al. 2010; Mutikanga et al. 2011).

Table 4 Correlation coefficients (r): MNF mean (L/s), different pipe diameters and different types of pipes

N0. Independent variable MNF mean (L/s) Comments

r p-value

1 D100mm 0.566 0.001 significant

2 D160mm 0.274 0.142 not significant
3 D200mm 0.281 0.133 not significant
4 D250mm 0.309 0.096 not significant
5 D300mm 0.11 0.561 not significant
6 AC 0.47 0.009 significant
7 CI 0.247 0.188 not significant
8 HDPE 0.302 0.105 not significant
9 UPVC 0.153 0.42 not significant
10 DI 0.133 0.482 not significant
11 MS 0.324 0.081 not significant
12 AC100mm 0.493 0.006 significant
13 CI100mm 0.302 0.104 not significant
14 HDPE100mm −0.016 0.932 not significant
15 UPVC100mm 0.225 0.232 not significant
16 HDPE110mm 0.19 0.315 not significant
 Author's personal copy
1450 J.M.A. Alkasseh et al.

According to Table 4, the relationships between D160, D200, D250, D300 mm, and MNF
mean (L/s) were not significant. Based on the data of the pipe network, the percentage of
D160 mm was 57.5 % of the total length of the pipe network. The majority of the pipe length
of D160 mm (61.6 %) was 160 mm unplasticized polyvinyl chloride (UPVC) pipe followed
by 150 mm asbestos cement pipe (AC) (31.7 %). The relationships between D160 and MNF
mean (L/s) were not significant. This is probably due to majority of the pipe length of
160 mm UPVC (90.4 %) was between 11 and 30 years. This result is in agreement with the
study of Davis et al. (2007) who confirmed that UPVC pressure pipes have exhibited
relatively low failure rates in service compared to other pipe materials in use which has a
service life approaching 30 years. The percentages of D200, D250 and D300 mm were
6.6 %, 3.0 % and 1.9 % of the total length of the pipe network, respectively. Therefore, the
relationships between D200, D250, D300 mm, and MNF mean (L/s) were not significant
which is probably due to the small proportion of these pipe lengths in the system. Addi-
tionally, the highest number of failures (leakage) was found in pipes with small diameters
(Clark and Goodrich 1989; Male et al. 1990; Røstum 2000; Kanakoudis and Tolikas 2001;
Pelletier et al. 2003).
Based on Table 4, the relationship between the AC pipe and MNF mean (L/s) was
significant. The relationships between the types of pipe (CI, HDPE, UPVC, DI, MS) and
MNF mean (L/s) were not significant. The relationship between 100 mm AC pipe and MNF
mean (L/s) was significant. The relationships between 100 mm CI, 100 mm HDPE, 100 mm
UPVC, and 100 mm HDPE and MNFmean (L/s) were not significant.
The percentage of AC pipes is approximately 47.4 % of the total length. The majority of
AC pipes (97.2 %) are less than or equal to 200 mm. About 43.6 % of the total length of
pipes in the system is AC pipe between 20 and 50 years, and 32.8 % between 30 and
50 years. Approximately 57.1 % of the registered pipe repairs of main pipes in 2010 were
found in AC pipes, mainly 100 mmAC. The present finding of the significant relationships
of MNFmean (L/s) to the type of pipe ACs is consistent with that obtained in previous
investigators (Kettler and Goulter 1985; Goulter and Kazemi 1989; Goulter et al. 1993;
Røstum 2000; Walton and Al-Muhairi 2008; Christodoulou et al. 2010). In this study, the
contribution of AC pipes to MNF (L/s) was determined through the output of the correlation
test (p value 0.009, r=0.47) which was not included in the previous studies.
An SLR of the MNF mean (L/s) was carried out versus significant independent variables
which were number of connections, total length of pipe, weighted mean age of pipe, and
type of pipe (100 mmAC). Finally, the prediction model for the MNF mean (L/s) using MLR
was achieved.
The output of the methods stepwise, forward, and backward shows the same independent
variables, which are total length of the pipe network (meter) and weighted mean of pipe age
(year). The R-square value was 0.706. This value shows that 70.6 % of the variation in the
MNF mean (L/s) could be explained by the model. The adjusted R-square is 0.684. Both
values indicate that the model fits well with the data. The predicted R-square is 0.587. The
predicted R-Square value is close to the R-square and the adjusted R-square values; the
model appears to have an adequate predictive ability.
The model included only the length of main pipes with diameter of D100mm to D350mm.
Diameters less than D100 mm were not included and have a major length in the WDS.
Although service pipes have small diameter, leaks can contribute significant volume to the
overall leakage, particularly on the customer premises and may occur undetected for many
months (Warren 2005; Cannarozzo et al. 2006; Uyak et al. 2007). Water losses increase
significantly when house connections are not done properly (Çakmakcı et al. 2007). Evidently,
the predictive ability of the model is more precise with diameters less than D100 mm.
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Applying Minimum Night Flow to Estimate Water Loss 1451

A paired t-test was done to check if any statistically significant difference existed between
the actual MNF (L/s) and predicted MNF (L/s). Using a significance level of α=0.05, the
output of the paired t-test shows that p value (p value 1.00) is not significant. Thus, the
model was not statistically significant, which suggests that no differences were observed in
the means of the actual MNF (L/s) and predicted MNF (L/s). The assumption of random
sampling is met because the zones were randomly selected from a sample of DMAs. If the
sample size ≥30 cases per group, the central limit theorem is applicable. The sampling
distribution of the observation differences approximates a normal distribution (Larson and
Farber 2003). Thus, the means of MNF (water loss) for the groups “actual MNF (L/s)” and
“predicted MNF (L/s)” are 4.997 and 4.997 (L/s), respectively.
At 5 % significance level, F-value for the model was 32.43. The p value was less than
0.001. Thus, the above regression model was statistically significant. The Variation Inflation
Factor (VIF) was less than 10 for all independent variables. Thus, multicollinearity was not a
problem. Only two independent variables were selected; hence, only one pair of interaction
was checked. The interaction term (Length_Age, p value 0.612) was not significant and,
therefore, was not included in the model.
By plotting the scatter plots of the residual value and each of the independent variables,
the plots were structure less. Thus, the assumption of linearity was met. Figure 8 shows a
normal distribution in the histogram of the residual. Thus, the assumption of normal
distribution was met. Figure 8 displays no pattern for the scatter plot of the relationship of
the residual and fitted value. Thus, the assumption of equal variances was met.
The prediction model of MNFmean (L/s) is given as:

MNFðL=sÞ ¼ 2:96 þ 7:97 104 ðRLÞ þ 0:112ðWMAÞ

The total length of pipe network (meter) and weighted mean age of pipe are the significant
predictor factors for the MNF mean (L/s). The regression outputs are given in Table 5. One meter

Residual Plots for MNFmean (L/s)

Normal Probability Plot Versus Fits
99
4
90
2
Residual
Percent

50 0

10 -2

1 -4
-5.0 -2.5 0.0 2.5 5.0 0 3 6 9 12
Residual Fitted Value

Histogram Versus Order

8 Mean -3.31587E-15
4
St Dev 1.879
N 30
6 2
Frequency

Residual

4 0

2 -2

0 -4
-4 -2 0 2 4 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
Residual Observation Order

Fig. 8 Check of the normality of residual distribution by histogram and equal of variance of residual
 Author's personal copy
1452 J.M.A. Alkasseh et al.

Table 5 The regression outputs

using MLR Dependent variable MNFmean (L/s)

Independent variables The total length of pipe network (meter) and

weighted Mean of Age of pipe (year)
No. of observation 30 DMAs
R-square 0.706
R-Sq(adj) 0.684
R-Sq(pred) 0.587
F-statistic 32.43
VIF for all independent variables p-value for F-statistic <0.001
<10. There was no interaction. (α=0.05)
Model assumptions were met

increase in reticulation length significantly increases the MNFmean by 7.97*10−4 L/s. An increase
in the pipe’s weighted mean age by 1 year significantly increases the MNF mean by 0.112 L/s.
The total length of pipe network (meter) and the pipe’s weighted mean age are the
significant predictor factors for the MNF mean (L/s), which are compatible with those
obtained in previous investigations (Kober 2007; Uyak et al. 2007; Tabesh et al. 2009;
Gomes et al. 2011). Based on the prediction model, the detailed contribution of these factors
to water loss was fully determined which is not clarified in previous studies.
The final model could be improved using the polynomial quadratic of the length and age.
The regression model is as follows:

MNFðL=sÞ ¼ 0:772 þ 5 108 ðRLÞ2 þ 2:02 103 ðWMAÞ2

The R-square is 0.779. The adjusted R-square is 0.763. The predicted R-Square is 0.73.
The P-value for the F-statistic (α=0.05) is <0.001. The F-statistic is 47.655.

5 Conclusion and Recommendations

Using a level of significance of α=0.05, the correlation test showed a significant linear
relationships between number of connections (p value 0.001), total length of pipe (p value<
0.001), weighted mean age of pipe (p value 0.049), and MNF mean (L/s). The relationship
between the mean of pressure and MNF mean (L/s) was not significant (p value 0.36). This
result may be explained by the use of the PRV. The correlation test proves that the
relationship between the pipe diameter D100 mm (p value 0.001) and MNF mean (L/s)
was significant. The relationship between all types of AC pipes (p value 0.009) and MNF
mean (L/s) was significant. The relationship between the type of 100 mmAC pipe (p value
0.006) and MNF mean (L/s) was significant. Approximately 97.5 % of the registered pipe
repairs were found with small diameter pipes of less than or equal to 50 mm, and approx-
imately 97.5 % of the registered pipe repairs in the service pipe and service connection.
Based on the MLR analysis, the total length of pipe network (meter) and weighted mean age
of pipe are the significant predictor factors for MNF mean (L/s). The R-square value of the
model was 0.706 which indicates that the prediction model of MNF mean (L/s) fits well with
the data. One meter increase in reticulation length significantly increases the MNFmean by
7.97*10−4 L/s. An increase in weighted mean age of the pipe by 1 year significantly
increases the MNF mean by 0.112 L/s. Thus, the final model could be improved to R-square
0.779. The research results show an effective improvement in the management of WDSs,
which could result in financial, environmental and social benefits.
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Applying Minimum Night Flow to Estimate Water Loss 1453

However, in this study several limitations have been discussed. According to the final
statistical model, the pipe length and weighted mean age of the pipes were the main
contributors to the MNF (water loss). The correlation test confirmed that the Pearson product
moment correlation coefficient (r) was 0.767 for the pipe length and 0.362 for the age of
pipe. These results suggested that the pipe length appears to be more influential to the
prediction model. The model included only the length of main pipes with 100 mm to
350 mm diameters. Diameters less than D100 mm were not included and have significant
length in the WDS. The R-square values of the prediction and the improved models were
0.706 and 0.779, respectively. The increase in R-square could be explained by the increase in
pipe length. Evidently, the predictive ability of the model is more precise with smaller
diameters of less than D100 mm.

Acknowledgments The authors would like to acknowledge the Perak Water Board (Lembaga Air Perak,
LAP) for their support and cooperation for the present study and Ministry of Higher Education Malaysia for
providing LRGS Grant No. 203/PKT/6726001- River bank/bed Filtration for Drinking Water Source
Abstraction to fund this research. Special thanks are also extended to the Institute of Postgraduate
Studies, Universiti Sains Malaysia, for the statistical assistance.

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