Department of the Interior: Office of Insular Affairs

To: Director, Nikolao Pula

Prepared by: Hamir Thapar, Pengyu Chen & Alexandra McDermott, 21st March, 2021

Subject: US Policy on Climate Change and Adaptability Measures in the Marshall Islands
Issue: The Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMA), as a low-lying atoll nation, faces disproportionate and existential
threats from climate change.1 Risks posed by rising sea levels, severe weather events and decreased soil fertility have
compounded existing environmental challenges on the islands, a legacy of the nuclear testing programs conducted by
the US on Bikini and Enewetak atolls.2 As a member of the Compact of Free Association and a long-standing partner,
the US has a recognised commitment and responsibility to assist the RMA in ensuring environmental resilience. 3
Aim: To support the climate resiliency policies of the RMA and continue as their partner of choice in the region.4
Background: The RMA maintains close links with the US, stretching back to the Second World War, but the current
Compact of Free Association (CFA) is due to expire in 2023. However, the Indo-Pacific region is of growing strategic
importance to the US,5 and relationships with Compact nations are considered crucial in countering Chinese influence
in the region.6 Of further strategic concern is the Ronald Reagan Ballistic Missile Defense Test Site on Kwajalein
Atoll, ‘a high-value asset in our national security architecture’.7 With the lease on this base extending until 2086, the
US has a long-term interest in supporting the Marshallese government in attempts to secure their community.
Recommendation: We recommend renegotiating the CFA to direct a higher level of grant funding directly to climate
adaptability measures and providing US backing to RMA climate proposals in the international arena.
Option 1: Rely on existing climate pledges to tackle rising sea levels (do nothing).
The administration has returned the US to the Paris Agreement and put green issues at the center of their agenda with
the ‘Clean Energy Revolution’.8 Therefore, domestic focus on achieving these targets may be considered an adequate
response, as reducing carbon emissions to halt rising sea levels addresses the most crucial threat that the RMA faces.
However, any one country achieving these targets is insufficient to combat climate change. Even if the US reduces
emissions to the required levels, there is still the possibility of global emissions continuing to fuel sea level rise.
Positive Negative
Does not divert funding away from the domestic budget. No guarantee of reduced sea level rise if meeting of targets
Demonstrates serious commitment to a green agenda. is not matched globally.
Does not address other climate-related effects, such as
salinity intrusion, drought and extreme weather.9
Option 2: Extend further aid and recognition to Marshallese people immigrating to the United States.
Climate change and rising sea levels are affecting the Marshall Islands’ agricultural output, freshwater supplies and
longevity,10 while the continued storage of radioactive material has resulted in widespread exposure.11 Additionally, 30
tonnes of irradiated soil are currently stored on the Enewetak Atoll, in a purpose-built dome at risk of collapse due to
rising sea levels.12 The administration should prepare for an increase in Marshallese migrants to the US and extend the
immigration privileges and support originally provided by the 1983 Compact of Free Association 13. 22,000 migrants
settled in Hawai’i, Arkansas and Washington as a result of this agreement,14 and with the Marshallese population
standing at 58,000,15 less than 60% of the least populous U.S city,16 a large -scale evacuation is feasible.
1
Letman, Jon (2018), ‘Rising Seas Give Island Nation a Stark Choice: Relocate or Elevate’, National Geographic (acc. 18/03/21,
(https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/rising-seas-force-marshall-islands-relocate-elevate-artificial-islands#close)
2
EPPSO (2020), National Strategic Plan 2020-2030: Republic of the Marshall Islands (Majuro: EPPSO), p. 11
3
US Department of State (2018), Integrated Country Strategy: The Republic of the Marshall Islands, https://www.state.gov/integrated-country-strategies/#eap (acc.
17/03/21), p. 8
4
Ibid., p. 5
5
Ibid., p. 2
6
Gray, Alexander B. and Domenech, Douglas W. (2021), ‘Extend the Compacts, Strengthen U.S. Security in the Pacific’, Newsweek
(https://www.newsweek.com/extend-compacts-strengthen-us-security-pacific-opinion-1571871, acc. 18/03/21)
7
US Department of State (2018), Integrated Country Strategy: The Republic of the Marshall Islands, https://www.state.gov/integrated-country-strategies/#eap (acc.
17/03/21), p. 2
8
Barichella, Arnault (2021), ‘United States Climate Politics Under Biden: Is the Clean Energy Revolution Under Way?’, Édito Énergie (Paris: IFRI)
9
Institute for Environment and Human Security Press Release (2019), ‘Not Giving Up – Sea Level Rise, Adaptation and Migration in the Marshall Islands’
(Madrid: United Nations University)
10
https://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2017/10/i-dont-leave-country-anything-making-decision-migrate-marshall-islands/
11
https://www.latimes.com/projects/marshall-islands-nuclear-testing-sea-level-rise/
12
Ibid.
13
https://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2017/10/i-dont-leave-country-anything-making-decision-migrate-marshall-islands/
14
https://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2017/10/i-dont-leave-country-anything-making-decision-migrate-marshall-islands/
15
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?locations=MH
16
http://www.city-data.com/city/Bend-Oregon.html
Positive Negative
The Marshallese Government is considering evacuation of Cultural integration could prove challenging17
the island as an emergency measure Anti-immigration sentiment within the U.S could prove
Feasible process due to the low population problematic18
Has precedence due to the CFA Suggests an inability to combat climate change
Extricates population from the dangers of climate change May lead to extinction of the Marshallese nation and thus
as well as that of the stored nuclear material loss of a strategic partner in the Pacific for the US
Option 3: Renegotiate the CFA and back RMA climate proposals in the international arena.
The RMA relies on international financial support to fund their annual budget.19 For the fiscal year 2021, the US
approved $34 million in support grants, but less than half a million of this was allocated to environmental and disaster
relief funds.20 The administration should renegotiate the Compact, working closely with the Marshallese government
to set parameters for an increased percentage of funds to be committed to environmental measures after 2023. They
can further support the Marshallese by backing their climate proposals in the international arena, such as the recent
demand for a universal $100/mt emission tax on shipping, which the RMA and Solomon Islands jointly proposed to
the Marine Environment Protection Committee for discussion in June this year.21
Positive Negative
Shows a high level of commitment to RMA needs. Domestic lobbies may resist more aggressive climate
Provides targeted bilateral funding and reaffirms the US measures.
position as the RMA’s partner of choice. The RMA government may object to directing grant funds
away from education, infrastructure and health.
Option 4: Increase RMA funding through specific grants earmarked for climate adaptability measures, up to
the $2.3 billion that the Nuclear Claims Tribunal assessed was owed to the Marshallese by the US government.

Increased financial contributions to the Marshall Islands is the simplest solution. The US could provide aid up to the
$2.3 billion in compensation assessed by the Nuclear Claims Tribunal in 1988,22 which would also absolve the US
from the nuclear test dispute in the RMA. The Marshallese government would then be responsible for subsequent
implementation phases, with no need for the US to consider RMA climate issues specifically. 23 Successive US
governments have resisted paying the full amount, but the new administration is putting the environmental agenda at
the high priority of the government, which means that it is highly likely that RMA will be compensated historically.24

Positive Negative
Resolves environmental disputes with the RMA. Such an expensive expenditure is not necessarily worth it
Fully demonstrates the determination and sincerity of the just because of the legacy of history.
U.S. government as world leader to tackle climate change. Funding does not necessarily mean that the local climate
change issue could be solved.
Conclusion: We believe that renegotiating the Compact to increase the allocation of funding for climate adaptation
measures and supporting the Marshallese in their international climate change advocacy is the best method for both
supporting the RMA and securing our strategic position in the region, reaffirming the relationship between the two
nations on the basis of its most pressing issue and signalling the new administration’s intent to make the US a world
leader on climate change. Ensuring the survival of the RMA as an entity in the Indo-Pacific further aligns with US
strategic interests in the region. However, the success of this policy is contingent on honouring our climate pledges as
outlined in Option 1, and global developments may also render the emergency measure of population evacuation or
costly raising of islands, necessitating a review of Options 2 and 4.

17
https://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2017/10/i-dont-leave-country-anything-making-decision-migrate-marshall-islands/
18
https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/trump-has-spread-more-hatred-of-immigrants-than-any-american-in-history/2019/11/07/7e253236-ff54-11e9-8bab-0fc
209e065a8_story.html
19
EPPSO (2020), National Strategic Plan 2020-2030: Republic of the Marshall Islands (Majuro: EPPSO), p.6
20
US Department of the Interior (2020), JEMFAC Approves $34 Million in Compact Funding for Fiscal Year 2021 Government Operations in the Republic of the
Marshall Islands (https://www.doi.gov/oia/press/jemfac-approves-34-million-compact-funding-fiscal-year-2021-government-operations-republic, acc. 18/03/21)
21
Adamopoulos, Anastassios (2021), ‘Marshall Islands demands $100 tax on shipping emissions’, Lloyd’s List: Maritime Intelligence
(https://lloydslist.maritimeintelligence.informa.com/LL1136097/Marshall-Islands-demands-$100-tax-on-shipping-emissions, acc. 18/03/21)
22
Bordner, Autumn & Ferguson, Caroline E. (2020), ‘The Marshall Islands could be wiped out by climate change – and their colonial history limits their ability to
save themselves’,
(https://theconversation.com/the-marshall-islands-could-be-wiped-out-by-climate-change-and-their-colonial-history-limits-their-ability-to-save-themselves-145994
#:~:text=By%202035%2C%20the%20U.S.%20Geological,This%20scenario%20is%20not%20inevitable, acc. 19/03/21)
23
EPPSO (2020), National Strategic Plan 2020-2030: Republic of the Marshall Islands (Majuro: EPPSO), p. 20
24
Bordner, Autumn & Ferguson, Caroline E. (2020) ‘The Marshall Islands could be wiped out by climate change – and their colonial history limits their ability to
save themselves’
(https://theconversation.com/the-marshall-islands-could-be-wiped-out-by-climate-change-and-their-colonial-history-limits-their-ability-to-save-themselves-145994
#:~:text=By%202035%2C%20the%20U.S.%20Geological,This%20scenario%20is%20not%20inevitable, acc. 19/03/21)