Ethiopia's GERD dam: A potential boon for all, experts

say
dw.com/en/ethiopias-gerd-dam-a-potential-boon-for-all-experts-say/a-65254058

Ethiopia's mega project GERD will boost the country's electricity output, but the dam is still
opposed by Egypt Image: Minasse Wondimu Hailu/AA/picture alliance

PoliticsMiddle East
Jennifer Holleis

04/08/2023

With 90% of the Grand Ethiopian Reservoir Dam completed, Sudan has now turned into a
supporter. Though Egypt is critical of the project, experts have ruled out war and point to
potential benefits for the whole region.

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, or GERD, has been dogged by controversy ever
since construction started on the $4 billion (€3.6 billion) mega project in 2011.

Above all, the two neighboring downstream countries of Egypt and Sudan have expressed
worries that the dam could lead to reduced water flow in the Nile River, causing increased
water scarcity — a major issue in a region that suffers acutely from droughts and negative
effects of climate change.

Now, 12 years on, Ethiopia’s Office of National Coordination has announced that the
hydroelectric power dam has been 90% completed.

For Ethiopia, the dam will make a huge difference. The government expects it will generate
up to 6,500 megawatts of electricity, doubling the annual national electricity output. This will
enable the 60% of the population that is not yet connected to the grid to gain access to
reliable power.

Ethiopia's neighbor Sudan, which draws two-thirds of its water supplies from the Nile and
regularly suffers from massive flooding during the rainy season, had first criticized the
project from the start. Now, however, it seems to have changed its view amid hopes that the
dam will help to regulate the annual floods.

In January, Sudan's de facto leader, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, told Ethiopian Prime Minister
Abiy Ahmed in the Sudanese capital, Khartoum, that the two countries were "aligned and in
agreement on all issues regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam."

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Egypt, which was also an early critic of the project, has, however, not changed its mind,
maintaining that the dam on the Blue Nile, the River Nile's main tributary, will jeopardize its
water supply.

Around 97% of Egypt's population of 106 million people live along the River Nile and depend
on it as a source of fresh water. There is also a deep-lying emotional aspect at play in the
country's criticism of the project, as the river has always been considered Egypt's lifeline.

Ethiopian Premier Abiy Ahmed, seen here at the GERD in 2020, feels the dam is a game-changer for his
countryImage: Minasse Wondimu Hailu/AA/picture alliance

In mid-March, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sahme Shoukry told local media that "all options
are open, all alternatives remain available" in the context of the dam's upcoming completion,
which is being closely follwed by Egypt.

Egypt's warning came despite the fact that it has found a solution to make up for the loss of
water caused by the filling of the GERD water reservoir, which started in 2020: Egypt has
directed more water from Lake Nasser, the water reservoir of Egypt's own hydropower
Aswan High Dam, into the Nile.

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: A never-ending saga

From corruption and mismanagement to a looming diplomatic crisis:

Construction on Ethiopia's mammoth dam has been far from smooth sailing.

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Image: DW/M. Gerth-Niculescu

A concrete colossus

At 145 meters high and almost two kilometers long, the Grand Renaissance Dam is expected
to become Ethiopia's biggest source of electricity. As Africa's largest hydroelectric power
dam, it will produce more than 15,000 gigawatt-hours of electricity, beginning in 2022. It
will source water from Africa's longest river, the Blue Nile.

Image: DW/M. Gerth-Niculescu

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The outlook so far

With more than 50% of Ethiopians still living without electricity, the government wants the
dam to be up and running as soon as possible, so tens of millions of residents will be able to
access power. The first of a total of 13 turbines are due to be operational by mid-2021.

Image: DW/M. Gerth-Niculescu

A worker looks out over the Grand Renaissance Dam in Ethiopia (DW/M. Gerth-
Niculescu)

A worker looks out over the Grand Renaissance Dam in Ethiopia (DW/M. Gerth-
Niculescu)

A long time in the making

Construction on the current dam began in 2011 — but the site was identified between 1956
and 1964. The coup of 1974 meant the project failed to progress, and it was not until 2009
that plans for the dam were resurrected. The $4.6 billion (€4.1 billion) project has
consistently been the source of serious regional controversy, with its plan to source water
from the Blue Nile.

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Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/E. Asmare

The construction site of the Grand Renaissance Dam, with the Blue Nile flowing through
(picture-alliance/AP Photo/E. Asmare)

The construction site of the Grand Renaissance Dam, with the Blue Nile flowing through
(picture-alliance/AP Photo/E. Asmare)

Transforming the landscape

In a few years, this entire area will be covered in water. The reservoir which is needed to
generate electricity is expected to hold 74 billion cubic meters of water. Ethiopia wants to fill
the artificial lake as soon as possible, but neighboring countries are concerned about the
impact this might have on their own water supplies.

Image: DW/M. Gerth-Niculescu

A view of the landscape where the reservoir for the Grand Ethiopian Dam will be built
(DW/M. Gerth-Niculescu)

A view of the landscape where the reservoir for the Grand Ethiopian Dam will be built
(DW/M. Gerth-Niculescu)

Diplomatic deadlock

Egypt, in particular, fears that filling the reservoir too quickly will threaten their water supply
and allow Ethiopia to control the flow of the Blue Nile. Ethiopia is insisting on having the
reservoir filled in seven years. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed met with Egyptian
President Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi on Sunday, to discuss the matter.

Image: Imago Images/Xinhua

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali speaks with Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah al-
Sisi (2018) (Imago Images/Xinhua)

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali speaks with Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah al-
Sisi (2018) (Imago Images/Xinhua)

No solution in sight

However, two days of negotiations between Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan in Washington over
the weekend failed to solve the reservoir issue, despite the US stepping in to mediate. With
no progress over the last four years, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed even called on South

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Africa's President Cyril Ramaphosa — and the 2020 chairperson of the African Union — to
intervene in the dispute.

Image: Reuters/S. Sibeko

Ethiopia's Foriegn Minister Al Dardeery Mohamed Ahmed and his delegation in

Washington (2019) (Reuters/S. Sibeko)

Ethiopia's Foriegn Minister Al Dardeery Mohamed Ahmed and his delegation in

Washington (2019) (Reuters/S. Sibeko)

Back-breaking work

Amidst the heated negotiations, up to 6,000 employees are still working around the clock to
get the dam completed by the deadline. The working conditions are not for the faint-hearted:
In the hottest months, temperatures on the construction site can reach up to 50 degrees.

Image: DW/M. Gerth-Niculescu

Workers standing on the construction site of the Grand Ethiopian Dam (DW/M. Gerth-
Niculescu)

Workers standing on the construction site of the Grand Ethiopian Dam (DW/M. Gerth-
Niculescu)

Project mired in corruption

Over the years, construction was also delayed significantly due to ongoing corruption and
mismanagement issues. Last month, 50 people were charged with severe graft offenses
relating to the dam, including the former CEO of Ethiopian Electric Power (EEP).

Image: AFP/E. Solteras

Workers at the Grand Renaissance Dam construction site | Baustelle (2019) (AFP/E.
Solteras)

Workers at the Grand Renaissance Dam construction site | Baustelle (2019) (AFP/E.
Solteras)

8 images
8 images

Military conflict off the table

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Despite the criticisms still coming from Egypt, researchers now tend to rule out a military
conflict between it and Ethiopia over the GERD.

"The window for any possible attack on the dam has closed, given the fact that the reservoir is
nearly full," Timothy Kaldas, deputy director of the Washington-based Tahrir Institute for
Middle East Policy, told DW.

An attack on the dam at this point would result in massive flooding of Sudan's Blue Nile
River. "This is something that the Egyptians will certainly not pursue," Kaldas said. Egypt
and Sudan are regional allies.

Jemima Oakey, an Amman-based researcher of water and food security in the Middle
East and an associate at the London-based consultant firm Azure Strategy, agrees. She told
DW that "launching a militarized offensive, which Egypt lacks the economic resources and
geopolitical backing to do, would be neither justifiable nor in Egypt’s interests, as there is
also no guarantee that any conflict would leave its water situation improved."

GERD's regional implications

"The dam project in Ethiopia is an illustrative example of the extent to which national
modernization projects and environmental dependencies are simultaneously reinforced by
the constant threat of climate change," Tobias Zumbrägel, a researcher focused on the impact
of climate change on the Middle East at Germany's University of Heidelberg, told DW.

"We are longer just talking about a water problem, which is a major problem in itself, but we
are also talking about the fact that an entire region is actually under threat of becoming more
destabilized," he added.

For example, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries have reiterated their willingness to back
Egypt in demanding sufficient water supply from Ethiopia.

Egypt, however, has repeatedly accused Israel of working against its interests when it comes
to the GERD, despite the otherwise solid bilateral relations betwen the two countries, which
signed a peace agreement in 1979.

Israel and Ethiopia also have close diplomatic ties.

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Scientists say aligning the Egyptian and Ethiopian dams could increase water supply Image: Minasse Wondimu
Hailu/AA/picture alliance

Scientific solutions
Researchers point out that there are political and scientific ways to settle the situation.

"Egypt's and Sudan’s most pragmatic, cost-effective and peaceful option is to set up a data-
sharing agreement with Ethiopia to manage the water flows from the dam," Jemima Oakey
told DW. Such an agreement could include guaranteed water releases during times of
drought. "It would build trust, promote cooperation and allow for sustainable and careful
multilateral management of the Nile’s flows," she said.

However, since construction started in 2011, Ethiopia has repeatedly rejected such options,
as well other forms of political agreements.

Hagen Koch, a senior scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, in his
turn, pins his hopes on a scientific approach. "Great benefits could be derived if Egypt's
Aswan High Dam and Ethiopia's GERD were operated together," he told DW.

"The GERD is located in the highlands; the Aswan High Dam is on a much lower altitude
where temperatures are higher," he told DW, adding that Aswan's water reservoir Lake
Nasser is also four times larger than the reservoir of the GERD.

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"If you manage this sensibly and store more water in the GERD than in Lake Nasser, you will
have lower evaporation losses, and thus both countries would have more water available for
their respective hydropower generation."

It remains to be seen whether by the time of the dam's completion in 2024 or 2025 —
depending on the amount of rainfall during the rainy season — any agreement will be
reached.

Edited by: Timothy Jones

Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam still controversial

03:40

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