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Two Kinds of Skeptical Argument
Two Kinds of Skeptical Argument
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STEWART COHEN
Assuming I know that P entails not-SK, we can derive (1A) from (CK).
According to Brueckner, argument A ultimately relies on an underdetermi-
nation principle, as well. In defense of (2A), the skeptic appeals to
(UP) For all S, 0, W, if S's evidence does not favor 0 over some
incompatible hypothesis W, then S's evidence does not justify
o.4
(*) If my evidence does not favor not-SK over SK, my evidence does
not justify not-SK.
(2B) If my evidence does not favor not-SK over SK, then my evidence
does not justify not-SK. [from (UP)]
(iC) If my evidence does not favor P over SK, then my evidence does
not justify P. [from UP]
(CIJ) For all S, 4, A, if S has justification for believing that 4 and S knows that 4
entails A, then S has justification for believing that A.
(CIV) For all S, 4, A, if S has justification for believing that 4, and 4 entails A, that
S has justification for believing A.
(CIJ) is stronger though Brueckner argues that it is as plausible as (CIJ) since S can have
justification for believing 4 without actually believing it. Brueckner mentions a worry
about (CIJ) concerning necessary truths and I think there are additional worries as well.
In the end, I think they can be handled with minor modifications. (Brueckner suggest
restricting (CIJ') to contingent W's.) None of these worries affect the substantive issue
that I will discuss so I will stick to Brueckner's (CIJ') for ease of exposition. I will simply
call it "(CJ)" however.
One final point: As I did in the case of (UP), I have, in stating (CJ) substituted "S's
evidence justifies P" for "S has justification for believing P"
Brueckner, op. cit., p. 833.
II
As we can see from argument B, Brueckner holds that, in the end, we must
appeal to (3B) (My evidence does not favor SK over not-SK) in defense of the
premise (2D) (My evidence does not justify not-SK). But (3B) works in con-
junction with (UP). And we can see from argument C that once we appeal to
(UP) we can eliminate any appeal to (CJ).
But Brueckner has given no argument that we must appeal to (3B) in sup-
port of (2D). And I can see no reason to suppose that we must. (2D) says that
my evidence does not justify not-SK. Suppose we conceive of my evidence as
being represented by the proposition E.7 Now one thing that is particularly
salient about the skeptical hypothesis SK is that if SK were true, it would
explain the truth of E. But having noted this, it becomes extremely puzzling,
to say the least, how that very evidence could justify not-SK. Thus, it
becomes very hard to resist accepting (2D).8
7 This is a harmless simplifying assumption. We could express the point without it though it
would be more cumbersome.
8 We can think of this reasoning as appealing to the principle:
If one of these other things was happening, your experience would be exactly the same as it
now is. So how can you know none of them is happening?9
The important thing about this reasoning is that it does not rely on the
underdetermination premise (3B). In fact, it looks as if one who reasons in
this way could reject (3B) altogether. Suppose I think E favors (to some
degree) P over SK, and so favors not-SK over SK. I need not hold that E
favors P, and not-SK, enough to justify either P or not-SK. But then I see no
reason why one who believes E favors not-SK over SK, i.e., one who rejects
(3B), cannot reason that because the truth of SK would explain the truth of E,
E cannot justify not-SK.10
This shows that we can view skeptical argument D as a straight deductive
closure argument-we need not view it as appealing to the underdetermina-
tion principle (UP). So there is no reason to think that (UP) is central to the
(Z) For all S, 4, if the truth of 4 would explain S's evidence, then S's evidence does
not justify not-?
The order of justification is not clear here. It may be that the general principle (Z) has no
more intuitive plausibility than the particular claim (2D). One possibility (suggested by an
anonymous referee) is that the particular claim and the general principle provide mutual
support through a process of reflective equilibrium.
I do not think, however, that the initial plausibility of (2D) depends on our being able
to precisely articulate a general principle from which it can be derived. One way to think
of this is that the plausibility of (2D) stems from an intuition about the concept of eviden-
tial support or justification. The intuition persists even if we are unable to come up with a
general account that explains the intuition. On this view, the plausibility of (2D) is very
much like the plausibility of the denial of the (sub)conclusion of the skeptical argument-
My evidence does justify P. The claim that my evidence does justify P has enormous
intuitive plausibility. And its initial plausibility does not depend on our being able to articu-
late a general principle of justification from which it follows. This is what explains our
resistance to skeptical arguments. For this reason, the skeptical problem is best viewed as
a paradox, a set of incompatible propositions, each of which has considerable intuitive
plausibility.
Also (an anonymous referee noted that) the case where P is a contradiction looks
worrisome for principle (Z), given standard semantics for subjunctive conditionals.
Because of this we can restrict the principle to non-contradictions.
9 Op. cit., p.167. For further examples of philosophers who see the skeptical problem as
being motivated in roughly this way, see John Pollock, Contemporary Theories of Knowl-
edge (Rowan and Littlefield, 1986), p. 3, and Barry Stroud, The Significance of Philosoph-
ical Skepticism (Oxford, 1984) pp. 20-21.
10 Brueckner seemingly makes this same point though his statement of it is puzzling. He
says, "...S's evidence might favor one of two incompatible hypotheses without being
strong enough to justify a belief of either". See footnote 7, Ibid. Presumably he means to
say "...to justify a belief in the favored hypothesis or the denial of the unfavored hypoth-
esis."
III
Brueckner, op. cit. p. 835. Brueckner says the motivation for (2C) (my evidence does not
favor P over SK) is that E (my evidence) would be true, regardless of whether P or SK is
true. This is similar to what I state as the motivation for (2D). I appeal to the fact that if
SK were true, it would explain the truth of E. This is because the mere fact that E would
be true if SK were true does not seem to be enough. Let SK be the bare hypothesis (not-P
& E). The mere fact that if SK were true, E would be true, does not seem to count against
saying that E justifies not-SK. We need some skeptical hypothesis that would explain the
truth of E. That is the reason for specifying the hypothesis that I am a brain-in-a-vat...
For this reason, the motivation for (2C) is better conceived as the fact that the truth of
E would be explained, regardless of whether P or SK is true.
Brueckner argues that this reasoning in support of (2C) "ultimately derives from" the
controversial view that the evidence required to justify P must entail P. (p. 835) I find
Brueckner's argument for this conclusion somewhat unclear. I do think this much is true.
The reasoning in support of (2C) may, in conjunction with (UP), provide an argument for
this controversial "entailment" view. For E's not entailing P would seem to be all that is
needed for the skeptic to argue that there is some Q incompatible with P, such that E does
not favor P over Q. (Similar consideration apply to the motivation I have suggested for
(2D.)
Is this a problem for the reasoning in support of (2C)? Arguably, a large part of what
makes the entailment view controversial is that it leads to skepticism. It is not that the
view has no intuitive appeal. (Recall that we are concerned here with justification to the
degree necessary for knowledge.) It is just that most philosophers have opted for reject-
ing this view over accepting skepticism. Insofar as the reasoning for (2C) in conjunction
with (UP) leads to the entailment view, we have an additional argument for the entail-
ment view.
For all S, 4, A, if S's evidence does not favor 4 over v and S's evidence justifies not-
y, then S's evidence justifies not-?.
IV
Given that (UP) has skeptical consequences only if (CJ) does one might think
that a skeptic who accepts (CJ) has little to gain by appealing to (UP). We
will take up this issue in section VI. For now we can see that regardless of
whether there is anything to be gained by it, one who accepts (CJ) is com-
mitted to accepting (UP). For it is a consequence of my argument in section
III, that (CJ) entails (UP).
To see how, it will be useful to refer to an observation of Brueckner's. He
notes that (UP) is equivalent to
In section III, I argued that (2C) (My evidence does not favor P over SK)
entails (2D) (My evidence does not justify not-SK). If so, the denial of the
consequent of the conditional embedded in (UP') entails the denial of the con-
sequent of the conditional embedded in (CY). Since the antecedents of the
conditionals embedded in the two principles are identical, it follows that (CY)
entails (UP'). Thus (CJ) entails (UP).'"
We can show this more straightforwardly by deriving the consequent of
the conditional embedded in (UP') from the conditional embedded in (CY) and
the antecedent of conditional embedded in (UP,):16
(4) S's evidence justifies 0 and S's evidence justifies not-iv. [from 2,
3]
15 As we noted, (2C) entails (2D) only given the restriction that S's evidence does not justify
not-?. But this restriction is entailed by the antecedent of the conditionals. So my conclu-
sion that (CJ) entails (UP) is unaffected.
16 Here I follow Brueckner's reasoning in ft. 7, op. cit., p. 7.
Brueckner makes the stronger claim that (CJ) and (UP) are equivalent.'8
Since I claim in section III that (CJ) can have skeptical consequences without
(UP) having skeptical consequences, I must deny that (CJ) and (UP) are
equivalent. So I must deny that (UP) entails (CJ).
Brueckner sets forth a proof of his claim that (UP') and (CY) (and so (UP)
and (CJ)) are equivalent. The proof consists of a derivation of each principle
from the other. We have already seen how to derive (UP) from (CIJ). If I am
correct, Brueckner's attempt to derive (CY) from (UP') should fail. Here is
Brueckner's account of the derivation:
Assume (UP') and (CJ)'s antecedent. Then it follows that S's evidence for believing that 4
favors 4 over the incompatible V. This by itself is not sufficient to show (CY)'s consequent [S's
evidence justifies not-v]. This is because S's evidence might favor one of two incompatible
hypotheses without being strong enough to justify a belief of either. However, we have
assumed the antecedent of (CJ) in the course of the present attempted derivation, and thus we
have it that S's evidence is sufficient to justify a belief that 4. Now it seems that evidence
justifies not-V].19
As Brueckner shows, from (UP') and the antecedent of (CY), we can derive:
His reason is that "...S's evidence can favor one of two incompatible
hypotheses without being strong enough to justify a belief of either". Pre-
sumably, the point here is that we cannot get either (R) or
from (Q).
Brueckner goes on to say that what does enable us to derive (R) is that we
are assuming (T) (part of the antecedent of (CJ)) as part of the derivation. But
this is puzzling because we cannot get from (T) to (R) unless we assume
(CJ). We can get from (T) to
For all S, 4, A, if S's evidence justifies 4, and S's evidence justifies not-c, then S's
evidence favors 4 over V.
But presumably, this is a necessary truth.
18 In the text he says they are "virtually equivalent" and sets aside the question of whether
there is any significant difference. But in ft. 7, he sets out a proof that they are equivalent.
19 Op cit., pp. 832-34.
given that 0 and vg are incompatible.20 But of course (U) does not entail (R).
Perhaps Brueckner thinks that (R) follows from (T) and (Q) together. But
(Q) follows from (T) and (U). And since (U) follows from (T) (given that 0
and vg are incompatible), (Q) follows from (T) alone (given that 0 and vg ar
incompatible). So (Q) can be of no help in deriving (R). If we cannot derive
(R) from (T), unless we assume (CJ), then we cannot derive (R) from (T) and
(Q), unless we assume (CJ). So the derivation of (CJ) from (UP) fails and
we can reject the claim that (CJ) and (UP) are equivalent.
In section III, I argued that (2C) (My evidence does not favor P over SK)
entails (2D) (My evidence does not justify not-SK) -but not conversely. As
a result, if (UP) has skeptical consequences, so must (CJ). But (CJ) can have
skeptical consequences without (UP) having skeptical consequences.
In section IV, I argued that (CJ) entails (UP)-but not conversely. So if
(2D) has skeptical consequences, so must (2C). But (2C) can have skeptical
consequences without (2D) having skeptical consequences.
What can we conclude about the relative strength of the deductive closure
argument and the underdetermination argument? Consider the two arguments:
(UND)
(1C) If my evidence does not favor P over SK, then my evidence does
not justify P. [from UP]
(DC)
Each argument has a premise that states an alleged epistemic particular fact
and a premise that states an instance of an alleged epistemic principle.
20 I am assuming that S's evidence cannot justify incompatible propositions. This principle
of course distinct from the closure principle. I discuss it in section VII in connection with
the issue of deriving (UP). Thanks to Tony Brueckner for pointing out to me that, in an
earlier draft, my argument in this section conflicted with this principle.
(2) If my evidence does not favor P over SK, then my evidence does
not justify me in believing P. [1C]
We have just seen that the conjunction of the premises of (UND) entail
premise (ID) of (DC). In section III, we saw that premise (2C) of (UND)
entails (given our restriction) premise (2D) of (DC). So we can now see that
the premises of (UND) entail both premises of (DC). But though the
premises of (DC) entail premise (iC) of (UND) (since (ID) entails (iC)),
they do not entail premise (2C) of (UND). Since both arguments are valid, it
follows that (UND) is a sound argument only if (DC) is-but not conversely.
Thus, (UND) can be refuted without refuting (DC), but (DC) cannot be
refuted without refuting (UND).2' In this way, (DC) is the stronger argumen
How significant is the greater strength of (DC)? This will depend, in part
on whether there actually are any serious antiskeptical arguments against
(UND) that do not count against (DC). Though a thorough discussion of this
issue would take us far beyond the scope of this paper, there are two kinds of
arguments worth considering briefly.
21 I am assuming that refuting a valid argument entails showing that one of its premises is
false.
22 We might stipulate that pragmatic criteria like simplicity are not relevant, strictly speak-
ing, to evidential justification. On this way of viewing matters, neither (2C) nor (2D) is
threatened by an appeal to pragmatic criteria, as they concern only evidential
justification.
If this is how we view matters then I could still make my point with regard to skepti-
cal arguments analogous to (UND) and (DC) that proceed in terms of justification all
things considered, i.e., both evidential and non-evidential justification. The appeal to
pragmatic criteria would pose a greater threat to the analogue of (2C) than the analogue
of (2D).
23 This depends slightly on how we formulate SK and the propositions about the external
world. The way I have formulated SK, it competes with proposition about the external
world like I see a table but not with propositions like There is a table. We could build into
SK that I am a deceived brain-in-a-vat to make it conflict with proposition of the latter
kind as well.
24 This kind of skeptical strategy is discussed by Jonathan Vogel in "Are There Counter-
examples to the Closure Principle?" in Doubting: Contemporary Perspectives on Skepti-
cism, Michael D. Roth and Glenn Ross, eds. (Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers,
1990), pp. 20-23.
25 Am I justified in believing that my car has been stolen? Of course, I am justified to some
degree-but not, I am inclined to say, to the degree necessary for knowing.
VI
VII
Let's return to the original question of this paper. What is the relative
significance of the underdetermination principle (UP) and the deductive clo-
sure principle (CJ) for formulating skeptical arguments? Assuming that both
principles have considerable intuitive plausibility, it now looks as if neither
principle can be said to be superfluous in the case for skepticism. Each prin-
ciple figures centrally in an independently motivated argument for skepticism.
Measured by refutability, (DC) is the stronger argument. Measured by
cogency, however, it need not be the stronger argument. Which (if either)
argument is the more cogent will depend on nothing more than which (if
either) has the more compelling premises.
One wrinkle remains. We have seen that (UP) can be derived from (CJ).
Suppose it turned out that (UP) depends for its intuitive appeal on being so
derivable. Then (UP) would not provide an independent motivation for the
skeptical problem. If this were true, we would have to conclude that the
appeal to (UP) is superfluous, and that the skeptical problem is, at root, a
problem about deductive closure.
Does the intuitive appeal of (UP) depend on its being derivable from (CJ)?
This is, to a certain extent, a psychological question. Certainly it does not
follow from the fact that (UP) can be derived from other principles that its
intuitive plausibility derives from those other principles. Perhaps the intu-
itive plausibility of (UP) does not depend on any other principles.
Suppose, however, that the plausibility of (UP) does derive from more
basic principles. It still does not follow that its plausibility depends on (CJ).
For there are other ways to derive (UP). Think about what (UP) says:
(UP) For all S, 0, Ag, if S's evidence does not favor 0 over some
incompatible hypothesis Ag, then S's evidence does not justify 0.
S's evidence does not favor 0 over Ag. This does not by itself have the conse-
quence that S's evidence does not justify 0. Perhaps S's evidence justifies
both 0 and Ag. What follows from the assumption that S's evidence does not
favor 0 over vg is that if S's evidence justifies 0, then it justifies w:
(FAV) For all S, 0, Ag, if S's evidence does not favor 0 over vg and S's
evidence justifies 0, then S's evidence justifies Ay.
But the fact that 0 and vg are incompatible rules out the possibility that S's
evidence justifies both 0 and A:
Given (FAV) and (INC), if S's evidence does not favor 0 over vg and 0 and xv
are incompatible, then S's evidence does not justify 0. That is, the conjunc-
tion of (INC) and (FAV) entails (UND).29 Moreover, neither (INC) nor
(UND) follows from (CJ).30 Given the intuitive plausibility of (INC) and
(FAV), we can conclude that the intuitive appeal of (UP) does not depend on
its being derivable from (CJ).3'
(1) If my evidence justifies 4, and 4 entails not-e, then my evidence does not jus-
tify v [INC]
(2) If my evidence does not favor 4 over A, and my evidence justifies 4, then my
evidence justifies V. [FAV]
(3) My evidence does not favor 4 over v and 4 entails not-c and my evidence
justifies 4 [denial of UP, assume for reductio]
(4) My evidence does not favor 4 over v and my evidence justifies 4. [from 3]
(6) My evidence does not justify 4 or 4 does not entail not-v. [from 1, 5]
32 Just as (ID) is entailed by (IC) and (2C), so (CJ) is entailed by (UP) and a generalization
of (2C):
(2CG) For any (), my evidence does not favor 4 over SK.
(2C) is just an arbitrary instance of (2CG). And (UP) and (2CG) entail the generalization
of (3C):
And (3CG) entails (CJ) in just the same way (IC) and (2C) entail (ID).
Is it plausible, therefore, to suppose that the intuitive appeal of (CJ) depends on the
appeal of (UP)? If that were true, our acceptance of (CJ) would depend on our accep-
tance of what is asserted in (3CG). But that is just the generalization of what (3D), the
conclusion of (DC), asserts as well. (CJ) is suitable as the justification for premise (ID)
in (DC) precisely because its considerable appeal is independent of our acceptance of
the conclusion of (DC).
33 I would like to thank Brad Armendt, Tom Blackson, David Cowles, Greg Fitch, Ted
Guleserian, Bernie Kobes, John O'Leary-Hawthorne Steve Reynolds, and Jonathan
Vogel for helpful discussion of these issues.