INTRODUCTION..................................................................................................................................

2
MAIN CONTENT..................................................................................................................................3
CHAPTER I: OVERVIEW OF INFLATION................................................................................... 3
1. Concepts of inflation...............................................................................................................3
2. Inflation measurement.............................................................................................................4
3. Classification of inflation........................................................................................................5
4. Significance of inflation control............................................................................................. 7
CHAPTER II: CAUSES AND SOLUTIONS TO INFLATION CONTROL IN VIETNAM FROM
2007-2012..........................................................................................................................................8
A. The situation of inflation in Vietnam from 2007-2012.......................................................... 8
1. Inflation rate:.................................................................................................................... 8
2. Increase in prices of goods and services:......................................................................... 9
3. Impact of inflation on income:......................................................................................... 9
4. Social instability:............................................................................................................ 10
B. The causes of inflation in Vietnam during the period 2007-2012........................................10
1. Internal factors:...............................................................................................................10
2. External factors:..............................................................................................................15
C. Solutions to inflation control in Vietnam during the period 2007-2012.............................. 17
1. Prudent monetary policy:............................................................................................... 17
2. Prudent fiscal policy....................................................................................................... 18
3. Price control....................................................................................................................19
4. Enhancing Domestic Production.................................................................................... 20
5. Strengthening Market Management and Supervision.................................................... 21
6. Strengthening education and consumer awareness:....................................................... 21
D. Results of inflation control measures from 2007 to 2012.................................................... 22
CHAPTER 3: EVALUATION OF INFLATION PROSPECTS IN VIETNAM IN 2024............... 23
I. Analysis and forecast of prospects........................................................................................ 23
1. Analysis.......................................................................................................................... 23
2. Inflation forecast for 2024.............................................................................................. 24
II. Factors influencing inflation in Vietnam 2024.....................................................................24
1. Increase in prices of goods and services:....................................................................... 25
2. Increase in energy prices:............................................................................................... 25
3. Increase in housing prices:............................................................................................. 26
III.Scenario Development and Control:.................................................................................... 26
1. Scenario Development:.................................................................................................. 26
2. Control Measures:.......................................................................................................... 27
CONCLUSION.....................................................................................................................................30
A. Summary of content:...................................................................................................................30
B. Assessment of inflation prospects in Vietnam:...........................................................................30
C. Proposed approaches and solutions:........................................................................................... 30
REFERENCES.....................................................................................................................................31
INTRODUCTION
Inflation, like a disease that threatens the market economy, is not just a simple
issue, but also a complex challenge that requires significant investment in time,
knowledge, and creative spirit to achieve positive results. The consequences of
inflation are not limited to affecting the health of the economy, but also spread and
impact all aspects of social life, especially the lives of workers - those responsible for
creating and implementing production value.

The characteristic feature of an economy facing inflation is the uncontrolled

price increase of most goods, while the purchasing power of the currency decreases
significantly, creating anxiety and shaking market stability.

In Vietnam, from the late 19th century to the early 20th century, inflation
became a serious and prolonged problem, causing unforeseen damage to the economy
and social life. The origins of this issue are often linked to prolonged wars and an
irrational economic structure, making inflation control and forecasting extremely
difficult.

Keeping up with the special importance of this issue, the essay "Causes and
Solutions to Inflation in Vietnam during the 2007-2012 period. Evaluation of inflation
prospects in 2024 in Vietnam" is not only an exploration and careful analysis of the
causes of inflation but also an opportunity to propose innovative and effective
solutions to improve the situation. At the same time, the study also sets an important
goal of evaluating and forecasting the prospects of inflation in the future, especially in
2024 in Vietnam.

MAIN CONTENT
CHAPTER I: OVERVIEW OF INFLATION

1. Concepts of inflation

In the field of macroeconomics, understanding inflation is not just a simple

issue of price increases for goods and services, but also a complex challenge that
requires deep knowledge and careful analysis. Inflation is defined as a continuous
increase in the general price level of goods and services over time, while also causing
the depreciation of the currency. This leads to a unit of currency being able to
purchase fewer goods and services than before, reducing the purchasing power of the
currency.

Compared to other countries, inflation can also be understood as the

devaluation of a nation's currency compared to the currencies of other countries.
Despite different perspectives, measurement and evaluation are still carried out
through indices such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the National Income
Adjustment Index.

The CPI reflects the percentage change in prices over a certain period of time,
based on a limited number of representative goods. Although it is not possible to
calculate the prices of all goods, the CPI is still constructed based on the average
weight of representative goods to provide an overview of the price situation.

(Cao Thi Y Nhi and Dang Anh Tuan, 2018) argue that "currently, inflation is
defined as a continuous increase in the general price level or the continuous
devaluation of currency." However, inflation does not mean that the prices of all goods
in the economy must increase, but only that the average prices of those goods
increase. Even when the prices of some goods decrease, inflation can still occur if the
prices of other goods and services increase enough to outweigh the decreasing effect
of those goods.

In addition, inflation also leads to a decrease in the purchasing power of the

currency. Indeed, when an economy experiences inflation, it means that a unit of
currency will be able to purchase fewer goods than before. Or economic entities will
have to spend more money to buy the same amount of goods as before when inflation
occurs.

In terms of income, if the rate of price increase is faster than the income in
money of the workers, their real income will decrease. Therefore, their real income
increases or decreases during inflation depends on the income factor in money. If their
income in money increases faster than the rate of price increase, individuals can still
become wealthier even when inflation exists.

(Vu Kim Dung and Nguyen Van Cong, 2018) emphasize: "An important thing
to be aware of is that inflation is not simply an increase in the general price level, but
it must be a continuous increase in the general price level. If there is only a shock that
causes the general price level to increase, it seems that the price only suddenly rises
and then returns to the original level immediately after. Temporary price increases like
that are not called inflation. However, in reality, each shock usually has a prolonged
impact on the economy and can therefore cause inflation."
2. Inflation measurement

Calculating the inflation rate of an economy in specific periods, often annually,

plays a crucial role in formulating appropriate macroeconomic policies. To serve this
purpose, economists use indicators of inflation rates calculated as the percentage
change in the general price level. Currently, there exist three important indicators to
represent the price index, including:

Consumer Price Index (CPI): This indicator reflects the overall cost that a
typical consumer has to spend on purchasing goods and services. CPI is considered
the most common indicator, widely used to calculate the inflation rate as it directly
relates to the daily lives of the population.

Producer Price Index or Wholesale Price Index (PPI): Of interest to businesses

and companies, this indicator shows the cost that businesses have to incur to purchase
a basket of goods and services. PPI reflects price fluctuations of three main
commodity groups, including food grains, manufactured goods, and products from the
mining sector.

Deflator or GDP deflator (D): Often used to adjust GDP from nominal GDP to
real GDP, this indicator also helps countries assess the overall price situation. D is
calculated at market prices or current prices, reflecting fluctuations in the prices of all
goods and services existing in the national economy.

The inflation rate is an important indicator to show the fluctuation in the

general price index between two time periods. The formula for calculating the
inflation rate is as follows:

In which:

- gp: the growth rate of the general price level

- CPI_1: the general price index of the current period

- CPI_0: the general price index of the previous period.

(Cao Thi Y Nhi and Dang Anh Tuan, 2018)

3. Classification of inflation

3.1. Based on quantitative criteria

Economists classify inflation into three types based on the severity of the
inflation rate calculated annually, including: Moderate inflation, hyperinflation, and
super hyperinflation.

Moderate inflation is characterized by slow price increases and can be

predicted, with a relatively stable inflation rate, usually below 10% per year. This is
considered an ideal level of inflation for the economy, as the negative effects of
inflation are negligible and can even stimulate economic development. During this
period, the public and businesses are still willing to use cash for transactions and sign
long-term contracts, as they believe that the currency will not lose much value in the
future.

Hyperinflation is inflation at a rate of two to three digits per year, i.e. from 10
to below 100% per year. For some developed economies, this level of inflation is still
acceptable. However, if this inflation rate is maintained for a long time, it will have
negative effects on the economy. The national currency will quickly lose value,
causing people to lose confidence in the currency and tend to hoard gold, strong
foreign currencies, or invest in real estate.

Super hyperinflation is an extremely high inflation rate, with monthly inflation

rates of 50% or more. This leads to annual inflation rates that can reach thousands of
percent. Super hyperinflation often stems from a sharp increase in money supply,
usually resulting from the need to offset the prolonged budget deficits of the
Government. The consequences of super hyperinflation include reducing tax revenue
and increasing budget deficits, forcing the Government to use more money issuance
tools, thereby increasing inflation rates uncontrollably. A typical example of super
hyperinflation is in Germany during the period 1921-1923, when money supply
exceeded the limit and led to extremely severe inflation. This situation caused terrible
consequences for Germany's economy and even the cause of Nazi Germany and
World War II. The phenomenon of hyperinflation in Germany is evidence that
supports Friedman's statement "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary
phenomenon."

Vietnam also experienced a period of hyperinflation in 1986-1988 when the

State implemented reforms, with very high monthly price increases of 15-20%.
Inflation during this period had 6 basic characteristics: triple-digit inflation lasting for
3 consecutive years, initiated by a major price and wage reform and currency
exchange. The consequences of hyperinflation during this period were very severe,
causing Vietnam's economy to fall into a socio-economic crisis for many years.

3.2. Based on qualitative criteria.

a. Balanced inflation and unbalanced inflation

Balanced inflation is understood as the rate of price increase combined with

income growth, not reducing the purchasing power of workers. In this situation,
inflation does not have a significant impact on their daily lives.

Unbalanced inflation arises from the disproportionate increase in prices

compared to income growth, leading to a decrease in the purchasing power of income
and directly affecting the lives of workers. This type of inflation often occurs more
frequently and has negative effects on the economy.

b. Predictable inflation and abnormal inflation

Predictable inflation is a type of inflation that occurs over a relatively long

period of time, tends to be stable over the years, and can be predicted for the next year.
With this type of inflation, people can easily adapt and accept it as part of life,
minimizing the negative impact on the economy.

Abnormal inflation is a type of inflation that occurs suddenly and without

precedent. This abnormality makes economic entities unable to adapt or change their
existing habits, causing unwanted changes in their lives and personal finances. People
often lose confidence in the stable inflation policies of the Government, increasing the
negative impact on the economy.

c. Regular inflation and core inflation

Regular inflation does not eliminate temporary fluctuations or price shocks,

reflecting the actual cost of living changes for people. Although it does not accurately
reflect the health of the national economy, it is meaningful to the people.

Core inflation is inflation that eliminates temporary fluctuations in the

consumer price index, reflecting the long-term and stable effects of demand on price
fluctuations. Core inflation is considered an important indicator in evaluating and
formulating monetary policies for a country.

3.3. Based on the level of inflation rate

Low inflation is defined as a price increase ranging from 0.3% to below 10%
per year. This indicates a stable and not excessively high inflation rate, keeping
inflation within acceptable limits. In this situation, the economy does not face
significant price fluctuations, helping to maintain stability and easily manage
economic policies.

High inflation is a significant increase in prices, usually in the range of two to

three digits per year, and this type of inflation is often referred to as hyperinflation.
Although it does not reach the level of hyperinflation, high inflation still has a major
impact on the economy. In fact, many countries, including Vietnam during the
transition from a centrally planned economy to a market economy, had to deal with
periods of hyperinflation in the early years of reform.

4. Significance of inflation control

The significance of inflation control is not only an economic task but also a
determining factor for the stability and sustainable development of a country. Here are
some specific significances:

Protecting the health of the economy: Inflation reduces the value of money,
reducing the purchasing power of consumers and businesses. When prices rise,
consumers have to spend more for the same amount of goods and services, meaning
they spend more for the same standard of living. This not only affects consumers but
also creates instability in the economy, making it difficult to plan for investment and
development.

Protecting workers' income: Inflation can reduce the real value of workers'
income if wage increases are not sufficient to offset the price increase. This leads to
increased spending on basic needs, reducing the ability to save and invest in long-term
goals. In particular, low-income groups will be more heavily impacted by inflation.

Enhancing social stability: Inflation can cause dissatisfaction and tension in

society when consumers are dissatisfied with declining purchasing power. This can
lead to public expressions, protests, and even public order disturbances, negatively
affecting social and political stability.

Creating favorable conditions for economic development: When inflation is

controlled and kept at a low level, the economy can develop more stably and
sustainably. Businesses can predict the business environment and make more accurate
long-term investment plans, while consumers are also ensured stable purchasing
power.

Enhancing the credibility and trust in the currency: Controlling inflation helps
protect the value of the currency and create a stable business environment. This
increases the credibility and trust of both the people and investors in the currency and
the economy of the country, attracting investment and promoting economic
development.

CHAPTER II: CAUSES AND SOLUTIONS TO INFLATION CONTROL IN

VIETNAM FROM 2007-2012.

A. The situation of inflation in Vietnam from 2007-2012

In the period from 2007 to 2012, Vietnam witnessed a worrying inflation

situation, causing many negative impacts on the economy and people's lives.

1. Inflation rate:

The inflation rate in 2007 reached 8.3%, a relatively stable figure compared to
previous years. However, this was only the beginning of a significant increase in
inflation in the following decade.

2008 was a notable point with a sharp increase in the inflation rate to 18.1%,
nearly double compared to the previous year. The consumer price index also increased
significantly by 25.2% compared to the previous year, signaling a worrying increase
in prices and a decrease in people's purchasing power.

2009-2010: In this period, the inflation rate decreased slightly but still
remained high compared to before. Although some containment measures were
applied, they were not enough to completely reverse the inflation situation.

2011: The inflation rate continued to soar to 21.5%, putting the economy in an
alarming state. The price increase was not controlled, putting increasing financial
pressure on the people.

2012: Although specific data is not provided, the data shows that the inflation
rate remained high in 2012, marking a difficult and unstable period for the Vietnamese
economy.

2. Increase in prices of goods and services:

Increase in food prices: During the period from 2007 to 2012, inflation caused
a significant increase in the prices of many essential goods, especially food.
According to data from the General Statistics Office of Vietnam, 2008 was a
particularly notable year, with the food price index increasing by 17.5% compared to
the previous year. This sudden increase created heavy pressure on consumers,
especially low-income families. With this price increase, consumers had to spend a
large portion of their income on essential items such as daily food, contributing to an
increase in monthly expenses.
 Increase in housing prices: During the same period, housing prices were also
greatly affected by inflation. Especially in major cities like Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh
City, housing prices skyrocketed. According to data from the General Statistics Office
of Vietnam, from 2007 to 2012, housing prices in major cities increased on average
from 15% to 20% per year. This price increase not only affected people's ability to
own homes but also caused issues related to social welfare and household economic
stability. People looking to buy or rent homes faced difficulties and significant
financial pressure, while families who already owned homes had to deal with higher
living costs due to the increased prices.

3. Impact of inflation on income:

The depreciation of real income due to inflation was a serious issue during the
period from 2007 to 2012. Data from the General Statistics Office of Vietnam showed
that wages did not increase significantly compared to the rate of price increases. While
the consumer price index rose sharply, workers' wages only increased at a very low
rate or even remained stagnant. This led to a decrease in workers' purchasing power
and reduced their ability to spend.

Low-income groups were the most heavily affected by inflation during this
period. With the high prices of essential goods, low-income households had to spend a
large portion of their income on basic needs such as food, water, and construction
materials. According to data from the General Statistics Office of Vietnam, the rate of
price increases for the low-income group was often higher than that of higher-income
groups. This placed significant financial pressure on this group of people and
burdened them with living in difficult economic conditions.

4. Social instability:

During the period from 2007 to 2012, inflation contributed to social instability
by reducing consumers' purchasing power. The decrease in shopping ability created
dissatisfaction and tension in society, leading to an increase in public expressions and
protests against government economic policies.

Statistical data from reputable sources showed a noticeable increase in social

instability during this period. Public expressions, protests, and demonstrations became
more common, reflecting people's opposition and dissatisfaction with the difficult
economic situation and instability caused by inflation.

Among the largest protests, notable ones included protests against the increase
in food and fuel prices, as well as opposition to rising housing prices and daily living
costs. These protests were often organized in major cities like Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh
City, and even spread to different rural areas of Vietnam. This demonstrates the
widespread and deep-seated opposition of the people to the unstable economic
situation and the increasing inflation.

In summary, the inflation situation in Vietnam during the period from 2007 to
2012 was a major challenge, causing many concerning issues for the economy and the
lives of the people.

B. The causes of inflation in Vietnam during the period 2007-2012.

1. Internal factors:

1.1. Ineffective fiscal and monetary policies

Ineffective fiscal and monetary policies played a significant role in contributing

to the inflationary pressures in Vietnam during the period 2007-2012. Specifically,
these policies were not effectively designed and implemented, leading to an increase
in money supply without corresponding increases in productive capacity.

During this period, fiscal and monetary policies faced difficulties and
shortcomings, including:

-Lack of strict management and control: The management and control of fiscal and
monetary measures were not effectively implemented, resulting in uncontrolled
money supply expansion. For example, in 2008, inflation surged as the consumer
price index increased by 18.1% compared to the previous year, largely due to
uncontrolled money supply expansion.

-Increasing money supply without ensuring productive capacity: Fiscal and monetary
policies were not accompanied by measures to enhance productive capacity,
increasing the risk of inflation when money supply was not supported by production
growth. Data from the General Statistics Office of Vietnam showed that during this
period, the GDP growth rate did not keep up with the increase in money supply,
contributing to inflationary pressures.

-Lack of transparency and predictability: Fiscal and monetary policies lacked

transparency and were not presented in a predictable manner, causing market
instability and increasing public concerns about the future. The uncertainty and lack of
predictability in these policies raised anxieties and eroded public trust in the economy.

The shortcomings and ineffectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies

contributed to inflationary pressures during this period, creating negative impacts on
the economy and people's lives.
1.2. Domestic economic instability

During the period 2007-2012, domestic economic instability was one of the
main factors contributing to inflation in Vietnam. The domestic economy faced a
range of issues and challenges, including:

a. Exchange rate fluctuations:

The Vietnamese dong (VND) exchange rate experienced frequent fluctuations

and instability, affecting market stability and commodity prices.

For example, in 2008, after the global financial crisis, the VND faced
downward pressure against other currencies. The VND exchange rate depreciated
significantly, causing instability in the domestic currency market. Some factors
contributing to the depreciation of the VND include:

-Global financial crisis: The global financial crisis, starting from the United States,
spread to countries worldwide, creating concerns and pressures on local currencies,
including the VND. Vietnam, like many other countries, had to face challenges from
this crisis, leading to the depreciation of the VND.

-Increasing commodity prices: The depreciation of the VND led to higher prices of
imported goods, especially oil, raw materials, and food. The increase in commodity
prices contributed to inflation during this period.

Evidence of the depreciation of the VND and the increase in commodity prices
can be seen through economic indicators and statistical data from the years
2007-2012, including exchange rates, consumer price index, and imports and exports.
This clearly demonstrates the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on inflation in
Vietnam during this period.

b. Instability in industrial and agricultural production:

Instability in industrial production: In the industrial production sector,

disruptions in supply chains and reduced production efficiency led to increased
production costs. This is evident in the difficulties faced by some industries in
accessing raw materials, as well as the decrease in production output and efficiency,
which increased production costs. For example, during this period, the prices of
construction materials and production inputs increased due to shortages and
disruptions in supply, contributing to inflation.

Instability in agricultural production: In the agricultural sector, instability

caused by weather conditions, diseases, and other factors resulted in fluctuations in
food supply. For example, in some years, floods and droughts affected agricultural
output, leading to reduced supply and increased prices. Additionally, fluctuations in
global agricultural prices also impacted domestic prices. All these factors contributed
to increased price pressures and inflation.

c. Excessive dependence on foreign resources:

During this period, the importation of goods and raw materials from other
countries has become an essential part of Vietnam's economy to meet domestic
production and consumption needs.

However, this dependence has made Vietnam's economy vulnerable to

fluctuations in the international market, such as global prices and the global market
situation. In particular, during the global financial crisis in 2008, the global demand
reduction and strong fluctuations in the international market had a significant impact
on Vietnam's economy.

A specific example of the impact of import dependence is in 2008, when world

oil prices increased sharply. This led to Vietnam having to import oil at high prices,
contributing to inflation. Similarly, fluctuations in the prices of other commodities
such as food and production materials also affected inflation in Vietnam during this
period.

Excessive dependence on foreign resources not only increases inflationary

pressures but also creates an unstable business environment. This poses difficulties in
maintaining domestic economic stability and increases risks for businesses, while also
affecting people's lives through price increases and currency devaluation.

1.3. Increase in energy and raw material prices:

During this period, the prices of energy sources such as oil, coal, and natural
gas, as well as the prices of production materials such as steel and cement, tended to
increase, creating increased production cost pressures.

For example, in 2008, world oil prices increased significantly, reaching record
levels, with the highest price being around $147 per barrel in July. This price increase
had a significant impact on transportation and production costs in Vietnam's economy,
contributing to the increase in the prices of goods and services.

Similarly, the prices of other production materials such as steel and cement also
increased during this period. This price increase can be linked to various factors,
including global demand growth, reduced supply, or fluctuations in commodity prices.
 These fluctuations have increased the cost of products and services in
Vietnam's economy, contributing to the inflation situation. Faced with pressure from
rising energy and raw material prices, the government needs to propose effective
control and management measures to stabilize prices and minimize the impact of
inflation on the economy and people's lives.

1.4. Increase in food prices:

During the period from 2007 to 2012, the increase in food prices in Vietnam
was due to several main factors, including:

- Crop failures: During this period, unfavorable weather conditions, including

prolonged droughts and floods, affected the yield and quality of many crops in
Vietnam. According to the report of the General Statistics Office of Vietnam, in 2008,
agricultural production decreased significantly due to the impact of unfavorable
weather, especially for rice and corn, two important agricultural products.

- Increase in agricultural commodity prices: Prices of agricultural commodities such

as rice, corn, beans, and vegetables experienced a period of significant increase during
this time. Data from the General Statistics Office of Vietnam shows that rice prices
increased by about 15-20% during the period from 2007 to 2012. The main reason for
this price increase is the high production costs due to increased energy and fertilizer
prices, along with reduced supply due to crop failures.

- Market strategies and agricultural protection measures: The increase in food prices
was also driven by market strategies, including price increases during export and
import periods. In addition, domestic agricultural protection policies, such as applying
import barriers to protect domestic agricultural production, also contributed to price
increases. For example, in 2008, when some rice-producing countries faced
difficulties in production, Vietnam increased the export price of rice, which affected
domestic rice prices and contributed to the increase in food prices and inflation.

These factors have created significant pressure on consumers, especially those

with low incomes, and contributed to the inflation situation during the aforementioned
period.

1.5. Increase in real estate prices:

During the period from 2007 to 2012, the increase in real estate prices in
Vietnam was the result of the coordination of several key factors:

- Significant economic growth: Vietnam has experienced an impressive period of

economic growth, with an average annual GDP growth rate of about 6-7%. This
growth has brought about many opportunities and challenges, leading to a significant
increase in people's income and purchasing power. The population in urban areas,
especially in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, has increased, creating a high demand for
housing and land.

- Demand for homeownership from the people: The increase in population along with
economic growth has stimulated the demand for homeownership from the people.
Especially in large cities, this demand has surged, making the real estate market
vibrant and fiercely competitive. With increased income, people always desire the
opportunity to invest in real estate, creating pressure for price increases from the
demand side.

- Scarcity of housing supply: While demand has been growing strongly, the supply of
housing has not been sufficient to meet it. Ineffective urban planning, limitations on
land use area, and inefficient land use have made the housing supply scarce, especially
in prime locations of major cities. This scarcity has created a tight real estate market
environment, thereby driving up prices.

According to the General Statistics Office of Vietnam, housing prices in Hanoi

and Ho Chi Minh City have increased significantly from 2007 to 2012, with a
considerable annual growth rate. For example, according to data from the General
Statistics Office of Vietnam, housing prices in Ho Chi Minh City increased by about
15-20% annually during this period. The increase in real estate prices has created
significant pressure on consumers and contributed to inflation during this period.

2. External factors:

2.1. Global financial crisis

The global financial crisis erupted from 2007 to 2008, starting from the US real
estate market before spreading globally and impacting the world economy. In
Vietnam, the impact of this crisis was evident during the period from 2007 to 2012,
especially from 2008 onwards. The sharp decline in the global economy has posed
many challenges and significant pressure on the Vietnamese economy:

- 2007: The financial crisis had not yet erupted strongly, but there were warning signs
from events such as the decline in the US real estate market and the decline in related
investment funds. Vietnam also began to feel negative signals, such as a slight
decrease in foreign investment capital access.

- 2008: This was the year when the impact of the financial crisis became evident and
widespread. The global economy experienced a deep recession, leading to a sharp
decline in exports and investment. Vietnam, a country relying on exports and foreign
investment, faced significant pressure from the decline in export value and the
reduction in foreign investment flows. The increase in import costs was also a
particular issue contributing to increased inflation.

- 2009-2012: During this period, the impact of the financial crisis still lingered and
continued to affect the Vietnamese economy. The delayed recovery of the global
economy has posed challenges for Vietnam in terms of exports, investment, and
import costs. This has contributed to an increase in inflation and affected people's
purchasing power.

2.2. Increase in energy and raw material prices:

2007: Oil and energy prices began to rise, leading to an increase in production
and transportation costs. Vietnam, a country relying on imported energy for
production and transportation of goods, faced price pressure from these raw materials.

2008: This was the year when energy and raw material prices surged. Oil prices
reached record highs, surpassing the $140 per barrel mark in July 2008. This price
increase had a significant impact on production and transportation costs, causing the
prices of many goods in Vietnam to rise.

2009-2012: During this period, energy and raw material prices continued to
remain high, creating negative pressure on production and transportation costs.
Vietnam faced difficulties in controlling inflation due to the impact of these price
increases.

2.3. Food price fluctuations

During the period from 2007 to 2012, the world market witnessed significant
fluctuations in food prices, especially grains and pulses. Factors such as climate
change, natural disasters, and changes in supply and demand have contributed to the
uneven stability of the world market, creating price fluctuations independent of laws
and forecasts.

-2007: The world market experienced significant fluctuations in food prices. This can
be explained by the increasing demand from developing economies, along with
reduced production in some regions due to natural disasters and unfavorable weather
conditions.

-2008: Food prices continued to fluctuate strongly. Factors such as rising energy and
oil prices also contributed to the price increase of various food items. The stability of
the world market was affected by unforeseen fluctuations.
-2009-2010: Despite efforts from agricultural producing countries to stabilize prices,
the market still faced pressure from objective factors such as climate change and
natural disasters. This led to continued food price fluctuations.

-2011-2012: The world market continued to endure food price fluctuations due to
factors such as unstable weather, climate change, and increasing production costs.
Vietnam, as a food-importing country, had to cope with the pressure from this price
increase, contributing to domestic inflation.

2.4. Monetary policies of major economies:

2007-2008: During the global financial crisis boom, developed countries

implemented loose monetary policies and increased money supply to mitigate the
impact of the crisis. However, this created significant inflationary pressure globally.
Increasing money supply contributed to the increase in inflation in Vietnam through
its impact on reducing exports, investments, and increasing import costs.

2009-2012: During this period, loose monetary measures continued to be

implemented to stimulate economic growth and support economic recovery after the
crisis. However, the side effect of increasing money supply is the global inflation
increase. This continued to affect inflation in Vietnam, as the risk of inflation from
developed countries was transmitted through trade channels and commodity prices.

C. Solutions to inflation control in Vietnam during the period 2007-2012.

1. Prudent monetary policy:

During the period 2007-2012, when inflation in Vietnam was high and had
negative impacts on the economy, the State Bank of Vietnam implemented a series of
monetary policy measures to control monetary growth and stabilize inflation. Below is
a detailed analysis of these measures:

- Interest rate adjustment: The State Bank of Vietnam used interest rates as an
important tool to control inflation. In the context of high inflation, especially in 2008,
the State Bank of Vietnam implemented measures to increase interest rates to the
highest level. By doing so, it aimed to slow down the growth rate of money supply
and curb inflation.

- Monetary growth management: The State Bank of Vietnam implemented a prudent

policy on monetary growth to control inflation. Instead of focusing solely on
increasing money supply to stimulate the economy, the State Bank of Vietnam applied
strict measures to control the issuance of money and credit by financial institutions.
One of the important measures implemented by the State Bank of Vietnam was
closely monitoring the issuance of money by establishing clear rules and regulations
for financial institutions. By doing so, the State Bank of Vietnam prevented excessive
growth of money supply, thereby reducing inflationary pressures. Furthermore, the
State Bank of Vietnam also strengthened supervision and control over credit activities
of financial institutions. This included assessing and verifying credit risks, managing
bad debts, and implementing restrictive measures if necessary to prevent uncontrolled
credit and monetary development.

- Exchange rate management: To stabilize the foreign exchange market and reduce the
impact of exchange rate fluctuations on inflation, the State Bank of Vietnam
intervened in the foreign exchange market. By doing so, it maintained a more stable
exchange rate, helping to limit inflationary pressures.

- Strengthening supervision and adjustment of money supply and demand: In

enhancing supervision, the State Bank of Vietnam established mechanisms and
regulations to ensure transparency and safety of the financial system. This included
assessing and supervising financial risks, determining standards for liquidity and
capital adequacy of financial institutions, as well as ensuring compliance with
financial reporting requirements and mandatory reserve ratios. At the same time, the
State Bank of Vietnam conducted buying or selling of financial instruments such as
government bonds to adjust money supply and stabilize the market. By doing so, it
could control the issuance of money and maintain stable exchange rates, reducing
inflationary pressures.

These measures played an important role in mitigating the negative impacts of

inflation on the Vietnamese economy, thereby helping to maintain economic stability
and sustainable growth during this challenging period. The prudent monetary policy of
the State Bank of Vietnam reflected flexibility and decisiveness in responding to the
challenges of inflation and the global financial crisis.

2. Prudent fiscal policy

2.1. Budget control:

The government focused on controlling the national budget to ensure that

expenditure costs were maintained at a stable level and did not increase too rapidly.
This helped to reduce the pressure of increasing money supply and the risk of
inflation. Concrete evidence for this measure is the government's implementation of
budget savings measures and cuts in unnecessary expenses. The government
strengthened budget monitoring and implemented policies to restrict inefficient
spending. Moreover, programs and projects that could cause price pressures were
carefully considered and only implemented when deemed necessary and economically
efficient.

Furthermore, the government also promoted the efficient use of budget

resources through enhanced monitoring and evaluation of the effectiveness of
programs and projects. This helped to prevent waste and enhance the efficiency of
budget utilization, thereby minimizing the pressure of increasing money supply and
limiting inflation.

2.2. Strengthening budget monitoring:

The government carries out the examination and inspection of projects and
expenditure programs of agencies and localities. This policy aims to ensure that
expenditures are used efficiently and have the potential to generate value-added for
the economy. In this way, the government has limited unnecessary costs and ensured
that budget resources are used effectively and efficiently.

Furthermore, the government has promoted the strengthening of monitoring

and evaluation of the effectiveness of projects and expenditure programs. This helps
prevent waste and ensures that the budget is used efficiently, thereby minimizing the
impact of monetary expansion on inflation.

2.3. Adjusting public spending:

The government reviews and evaluates the effectiveness of programs and

public projects before approving expenditures. Instead of increasing spending without
a clear plan, the government has set specific criteria and requires agencies to promote
the efficiency and feasibility of programs and projects. This helps limit unnecessary
costs and enhance value-added from the budget, thereby reducing the impact of
monetary expansion on inflation. In addition, the government has established control
and monitoring mechanisms for the implementation progress of public programs and
projects. This helps prevent waste and ensures that the budget is used efficiently,
thereby reducing price pressures and controlling inflation.

3. Price control

During this period, the Vietnamese government implemented various measures

to control prices in order to combat inflation, especially for essential goods such as
food and energy. Specifically, these measures include:
3.1. Establishing market monitoring agencies:

The government has established and operated market monitoring agencies to

ensure stability and fairness in market operations. These agencies are responsible for
monitoring and assessing price fluctuations, especially in essential sectors such as
food and energy. One of the main tasks of market monitoring agencies is to conduct
regular inspections at retail points. This helps ensure that prices are maintained at a
reasonable level and do not negatively impact consumers. These inspections are often
conducted irregularly and unexpectedly to prevent non-transparent and unfair
practices by retailers. In addition to price inspections, market monitoring agencies also
play an important role in detecting and addressing pricing and market discrimination
practices. Remedial measures may include applying price management measures,
establishing maximum or reference prices to prevent unbalanced price increases and
protect consumer rights.

3.2. Applying price management measures:

When signs of price fixing or market discrimination are detected, the

government intervenes by applying price management measures to prevent
uncontrolled price increases and protect consumer rights. These measures are often
implemented flexibly and tailored to specific market conditions. Below are some
specific examples of applying price management measures during the period
2007-2012:

- Establishing maximum prices: In cases where the prices of certain special items are
excessively high and unreasonable, the government has established maximum prices
to prevent uncontrolled price increases. This is particularly important for essential
items such as food and energy, where price increases can exert significant pressure on
consumers.

- Reference prices: The government can also establish reference prices for important
items to create a baseline price level, thereby helping to control price fluctuations in
the market. Establishing reference prices helps shape a range of stable and fair prices
for consumers and businesses.

- Price management through the market: The government can also intervene in the
market through measures such as buying or selling products to stabilize prices. This
helps reduce pressure from unbalanced price increases and protect consumer rights.

3.3. Control of Import of Goods:

The government may establish regulations and restrictions on the quantity of

imported goods to ensure that the market is not flooded with excessive goods from
abroad. In this way, the government can control the supply of goods in the domestic
market and prevent uncontrolled price increases. Additionally, the government may
impose taxes or fees on certain imported goods. This helps create a fair competitive
environment for domestically produced goods and imported goods. Moreover,
taxation can be an effective price control measure, reducing unbalanced price
increases and protecting consumers from the negative impacts of inflation.

4. Enhancing Domestic Production

The Vietnamese government has placed a high priority on promoting domestic

production to minimize dependence on imported goods and reduce transportation
costs, with the aim of controlling inflation. This strategy has focused on developing
domestic industries, agriculture, and services to enhance economic self-reliance and
reduce inflationary pressures. To achieve this goal, the government has implemented
policies to encourage and support investment in sectors such as processing industries,
agricultural production, and domestic service development. This has strongly
stimulated the domestic economy, creating favorable conditions for sustainable
development and reducing dependence on imported goods.

Furthermore, the government has also made efforts to promote the development
of local industries through support and encouragement of local businesses. This has
contributed to making domestic products and services more popular, reducing
dependence on imported goods, and limiting the risk of price increases.

5. Strengthening Market Management and Supervision

To prevent abuse and control unjustified price increases, functional agencies in

Vietnam have implemented strict and effective market management and supervision.
Emphasis is placed on promoting compliance with price and inflation laws, with the
aim of ensuring fairness, transparency, and stability in market operations.

Specifically, these agencies regularly conduct inspections and monitoring at

retail points, markets, and production facilities to detect and prevent unreasonable
pricing and market manipulation. This is done through the implementation of regular
inspections, surprise checks, and continuous monitoring measures. When violations
are detected, these agencies will quickly and flexibly apply price management
measures, including the establishment of maximum prices or reference prices, to
stabilize the market and prevent unbalanced price increases.

Furthermore, to enhance effectiveness and fairness in market management,

these agencies have also strengthened the strict handling of violations of price and
inflation laws. Through the application of strong and fair legal measures, violators will
be held accountable and face legal consequences for their actions. This not only helps
minimize abuse and discriminatory price increases in the community but also creates a
healthier and more sustainable market environment.

6. Strengthening education and consumer awareness:

The government has been promoting education programs and enhancing

awareness of inflation and personal finance to increase consumer awareness of this
issue from 2007 to 2012. The objective of this policy is to help consumers understand
the impact of inflation on the economy and how to manage personal finances in this
context. The government has implemented education programs through mass media,
seminars, and other interactive activities to enhance knowledge and awareness of
inflation and personal finance. These programs focus on explaining the causes and
consequences of inflation on people's living standards, as well as providing strategies
and tools for more effective personal financial management.

In addition, the government has also supported social organizations and

non-governmental organizations in organizing education and financial counseling
programs. These activities not only enhance consumer awareness of personal finance
but also help them understand how to cope with inflation and its impact on personal
finance.

Representatives of this policy could include the implementation of financial

education programs in schools, organizing seminars on personal finance for the
community, and broadcasting television or radio programs on inflation and personal
finance nationwide. These efforts have played an important role in raising awareness
and knowledge of the population about inflation and personal finance, thereby helping
them make wiser financial decisions and reduce the impact of inflation on their daily
lives.

D. Results of inflation control measures from 2007 to 2012

The actual results of inflation control measures applied in Vietnam from 2007
to 2012 can be seen as follows:

-Stable inflation: Measures such as interest rate adjustments, monetary growth

management, exchange rate control, and price management have helped alleviate
inflationary pressures during this period. Although there were some fluctuations, the
average annual inflation rate was relatively stable.

-Stable financial market: Monetary and financial management through monitoring and
regulation measures have helped reduce risks and maintain a more stable financial
market. Strengthened supervision has also helped prevent unwanted fluctuations in the
financial system.

-Stable economic growth: Despite challenges and fluctuations from the international
economic environment, cautious monetary policies and measures to promote domestic
production have created a stable and favorable business environment for the
development of industries, agriculture, and services within the country.

-Enhanced awareness and personal financial management: Education programs and

enhanced awareness have helped improve the knowledge and skills of individuals in
managing personal finances. This has helped them better understand the impact of
inflation and have appropriate strategies to manage finances in inflationary conditions.

Therefore, the inflation control measures from 2007 to 2012 in Vietnam have
achieved some positive results in controlling inflation, stabilizing the financial market,
and creating favorable conditions for sustainable economic development. However,
there are still challenges and opportunities that need to be considered to improve the
effectiveness of inflation control measures in the future.

CHAPTER 3: EVALUATION OF INFLATION PROSPECTS IN VIETNAM IN

2024

I. Analysis and forecast of prospects

1. Analysis

In 2024, the Vietnamese economy is undergoing a positive recovery phase from

the severe impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The government has implemented
strong measures to support the economy, from investing in infrastructure to promoting
domestic production and consumption. The GDP growth rate is expected to continue
to be stable, reflecting the recovery and development of the economy.

However, one of the major challenges that the Vietnamese economy faces
during this time is inflationary pressure. Inflation, which causes prices to rise, can
create many complex issues in the economy. Firstly, it affects the purchasing power of
consumers, making them pay higher prices for basic goods and services, from food to
energy and housing. This decrease in purchasing power can reduce energy
consumption and limit the consumption ability of the people, affecting their living
standards and overall economic growth.

Secondly, inflation also creates financial pressure on businesses. The increase

in material and labor costs can raise production costs, affecting the profits of
businesses and slowing down the investment and expansion process.
 Lastly, inflation can cause market instability, eroding the trust of investors and
consumers. The uncertainty about prices and the future of the economy can lead
individuals and businesses to postpone or limit major investment decisions, causing a
negative cycle for economic development.

Forecasting inflation can be based on statistical data on the consumer price

index and the price fluctuations of basic goods from agencies such as the General
Statistics Office of Vietnam. Monitoring price trends and assessing the impact of
economic factors can help forecast the inflation situation in the near and distant future.

To control inflation, the government needs to implement careful and flexible

measures, including adjusting monetary and fiscal policies. Intelligent and effective
intervention from the government can help minimize the negative impact of inflation
on economic growth.

Furthermore, strengthening market monitoring and price management is

necessary to prevent uncontrolled price increases and maintain stable inflation.
Providing education and creating conditions for people to manage their personal
finances is also an important part of reducing the negative impact of inflation on their
living standards. This can be done through financial education programs and
providing reliable information on measures to protect against the impact of inflation.

2. Inflation forecast for 2024

Forecasting and controlling inflation are both important factors in managing

Vietnam's economic risks in 2024 and the following years. To carry out this forecast,
we can rely on statistical data from agencies such as the General Statistics Office of
Vietnam. By analyzing price trends and other economic factors such as GDP growth,
supply and demand of goods and services, we can make general forecasts about the
inflation situation in the coming year.

Reports from the State Bank of Vietnam also play an important role in
providing detailed information on the inflation situation and assessing prospects for
the future. These reports often provide in-depth analysis of factors affecting inflation
such as monetary policies, price fluctuations of important goods, and the impact of
external factors such as international market fluctuations.

To control inflation, we need to implement measures such as adjusting

monetary and fiscal policies. However, these measures need to be carefully designed
to avoid causing excessive distortions in the financial system.

Furthermore, strengthening market monitoring and price management is also an

effective way to control inflation. This requires close cooperation between
government agencies, central banks, and market monitoring organizations to ensure
that no uncontrolled inflation occurs.

From an individual perspective, strengthening education and creating

conditions for people to manage their personal finances can also help reduce the
negative impact of inflation on their living standards. This can be done through
financial education programs in schools and providing reliable information on
measures to protect against the impact of inflation.

Forecasting and controlling inflation require close coordination between the

government, central banks, and relevant agencies. By combining statistical data and
in-depth analysis of the economic situation, we can propose effective measures to
reduce the negative impact of inflation and ensure stability for the economy.

II. Factors influencing inflation in Vietnam 2024

In 2024, several key factors could affect Vietnam's inflation prospects, which
can be specifically mentioned as follows:

1. Increase in prices of goods and services:

On the path to economic recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic, Vietnam is

facing the prospect of inflation in 2024. One of the main factors is the increase in
prices of goods and services, which can cause significant inflationary pressures on the
economy.

Loose fiscal policies and increased money supply are being implemented to
stimulate economic growth after the pandemic. However, these measures can also lead
to increased consumer and investment demand, resulting in higher prices of goods and
services. This increase can reduce purchasing power for consumers and increase
production costs for businesses, contributing to inflationary pressures.

To cope with this inflation prospect, careful and effective control measures
need to be implemented. It is necessary to observe and carefully evaluate price trends
and the impact of economic policies. Inflation control measures may include adjusting
monetary and fiscal policies, as well as strengthening market monitoring and price
management.

Furthermore, implementing measures to enhance competitiveness and labor

productivity can also help alleviate inflationary pressures. Importantly, ensuring
stability in economic measures is necessary to create a business environment based on
trust and predictability, supporting economic recovery without creating new
inflation-related issues.
2. Increase in energy prices:

In 2024, Vietnam's inflation prospects could face pressure from rising energy
prices, especially oil prices. This is an important factor that can contribute to
significant inflationary pressures in the coming year. Fluctuations in crude oil prices in
the international market and exchange rate fluctuations are two key factors affecting
energy prices in Vietnam. When crude oil prices rise, this often leads to higher
domestic fuel prices. This can create inflationary pressures by shifting the burden of
energy costs from businesses to consumers through price increases.

The increase in energy prices not only affects petroleum products but also
extends to many other sectors, from manufacturing and transportation to services.
Businesses may increase prices to offset higher energy costs, contributing to overall
demand and inflationary pressures. To control the inflation prospect due to rising
energy prices, measures such as adjusting monetary and fiscal policies, along with
strengthening market supervision to prevent abuse, need to be implemented. This
requires close coordination between government agencies and the central bank to
ensure that measures are implemented effectively and do not have unintended negative
impacts on the economy.

3. Increase in housing prices:

In 2024, Vietnam's inflation prospects could face pressure from rising housing
prices. In the context of economic recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic, increased
investment in infrastructure and development projects can be a key factor contributing
to higher housing prices. Strong investment in infrastructure and development projects
often creates high demand for construction materials and labor in the construction
industry. This increased demand often leads to scarcity of supply and higher prices of
construction materials, as well as labor costs in the industry. As a result, housing
prices and related costs, such as construction and renovation costs, can increase.

The increase in housing prices not only affects homebuyers but also renters,
especially in major cities. Rental prices can also increase due to higher operating and
maintenance costs, reflecting increased production and service costs. Faced with this
prospect, the government needs to implement measures to control inflation and ensure
economic stability. This may include strengthening market supervision, adjusting
monetary and fiscal policies, as well as promoting measures to increase housing
supply and reduce inflationary pressures from high housing demand.

Assessing and managing these factors will play a crucial role in maintaining
economic stability and controlling inflation in the future. This requires close
coordination between government agencies, the central bank, and relevant
organizations to implement effective measures. At the same time, timely information
capture and trend forecasting will help enhance the government's ability to respond to
inflation challenges.

III.Scenario Development and Control:

1. Scenario Development:

In the projected development scenario of Vietnam in 2024, the focus is

primarily on restoring and promoting economic growth following the COVID-19
pandemic. Strong economic stimulus policies will be implemented, aiming to boost
investment in infrastructure projects and increase public spending to stimulate growth
and create strong growth momentum.

However, this growth may come with the risk of inflation. Particularly, as key
factors such as energy and housing become more expensive, they will create pressure
on prices and production costs. The increase in energy prices, especially oil prices, can
contribute to inflation by impacting prices and production costs for businesses.
Additionally, rising housing prices can also generate inflationary pressure through
increased costs of construction materials and labor.

To control inflation in this scenario, the government will need to intervene

strongly and intelligently. Inflation control measures may include raising interest rates
to restrain borrowing and investment, controlling money supply by reducing the scale
of money printing. Furthermore, tightly managing public spending to limit the
increase in production and consumption costs, along with enhancing market
supervision to prevent uncontrolled inflation, are also necessary measures.

Close coordination between government agencies and central banks will play a
crucial role in implementing these measures effectively. This will help ensure
economic stability and minimize inflation risks in the future, creating conditions for
long-term and sustainable business and investment environments. In this context,
ensuring prudence and flexibility in policy implementation will be crucial factors in
achieving these goals. Additionally, enhancing information transparency and
management in the economy will also play an important role in building trust and
stability in the market.

2. Control Measures:

In the projected development scenario of Vietnam in 2024, although the

economy shows strong prospects for recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic, there is
also the risk of inflation due to rising prices of goods and services. Economic stimulus
policies such as increasing public spending and investing in infrastructure may create
pressure to increase money supply and drive prices up. In particular, the increase in
energy and housing prices can also contribute to this situation.

To control inflation, the government needs to implement vigorous measures,

including:

2.1. Raising Interest Rates:

This is an effective measure to curb borrowing and investment, reducing the

pressure on money supply and controlling price increases.

Raising interest rates is considered a key measure in controlling inflation in

Vietnam in 2024. When interest rates increase, the cost of borrowing rises, reducing
the attractiveness of borrowing for investment in projects or consumer spending. This
leads to decreased demand for consumption and investment, thereby reducing the
pressure on money supply in the economy.

Moreover, raising interest rates can also create a ripple effect, affecting other
sectors such as the real estate market. With higher interest rates, the cost of borrowing
for purchasing houses also increases, reducing consumer purchasing power and
reducing incentives for investment in this sector. This can reduce the increase in house
prices, thereby reducing price pressures and minimizing inflation risks.

However, raising interest rates can also lead to some unintended consequences,
such as increasing borrowing costs for businesses and reducing the attractiveness of
investment in production. Therefore, careful consideration and flexible adjustments
are needed in implementing this measure to ensure that the impact on the economy is
positive and sustainable.

2.2. Controlling Money Supply:

To implement this measure, the central bank needs to establish a careful and
strict control process for creating new currency. This includes adjusting interest rate
policies and conducting government bond transactions. Increasing interest rates is
seen as an effective measure to reduce borrowing demand by businesses and
individuals, thereby limiting the amount of money created, preventing uncontrolled
increases in money supply, and reducing inflation risks.

Furthermore, the central bank can conduct government bond transactions to

adjust the amount of money in the economy. In this way, the central bank can regulate
the amount of money circulating in the financial system, reducing or increasing
depending on the specific situation. This helps maintain price stability and control
inflation while stabilizing the national financial situation.

However, implementing this measure needs to be carried out carefully and

meticulously to avoid excessive money constraints, causing economic growth
slowdown and creating unwanted pressures on the financial system. Therefore, the
flexibility and adaptability of the central bank and the government are key factors in
implementing this measure effectively, ensuring the long-term stability of the
economy. This requires close consensus and cooperation between relevant
departments to achieve the common goals of monetary and fiscal policies.

2.3. Managing Public Spending:

To control inflation in 2024 in Vietnam, managing public spending plays a

crucial role. This policy needs to be established and implemented tightly and with
goals to limit the increase in production and consumption costs while maintaining
inflation at a stable level.

Firstly, specific priorities and goals for public spending need to be identified to
ensure that resources are allocated to the most important and high-growth potential
areas. This means increasing investment in areas that can create high value-added and
promote sustainable economic development, while limiting unnecessary spending and
waste.

Secondly, strict control and supervision measures need to be implemented for

the use of public resources. This includes applying clear criteria and procedures to
assess and verify the effectiveness of spending projects and programs, while
strengthening supervision and post-expenditure checks to ensure transparency and
fairness.

Finally, flexible adjustment mechanisms need to be established to respond

quickly and flexibly to fluctuations in the economic and financial situation. This
requires flexibility and adaptability of the government in adjusting public spending
according to market conditions and inflation control goals.

2.4. Strengthening Market Supervision:

Enhancing market supervision helps ensure that commercial activities and

transactions take place in a transparent, fair environment, and comply with legal
regulations, thereby preventing uncontrolled inflation and maintaining price and
market stability.

To achieve this, specific measures include:

- Strengthening authority and resources for market supervision agencies: Agencies
such as the Market Management Department and the Ministry of Industry and Trade
need to be provided with adequate resources and authority to effectively carry out
their monitoring and inspection tasks. This includes enhancing infrastructure, training
staff, and providing necessary tools for market supervision.

- Enhancing information systems and reporting: Collecting data and information

related to the market is crucial for supervisory agencies to have accurate and timely
information. There needs to be a comprehensive and transparent reporting system to
detect and address issues related to inflation and market imbalance.

- Enhancing cooperation and information exchange: Collaboration between market

supervisory agencies and other relevant parties such as businesses and industry
associations is necessary to build a healthy and fair trading environment.
Communication mechanisms and information sharing are needed to ensure consensus
and support from all sides in controlling inflation and maintaining economic stability.

Close coordination between government agencies and central banks is key to

implementing these measures effectively to ensure economic stability and minimize
inflation risks in the future.

CONCLUSION
A. Summary of content:

During the period from 2007 to 2012, Vietnam faced many challenges in
controlling inflation. The main causes of inflation included unstable economic growth,
increasing public spending, and money supply expansion. The sudden increase in
prices of goods and services contributed to inflation during this period. However,
through policy improvements and controls, the Vietnamese economy gradually
stabilized, and inflation was controlled at an acceptable level.

B. Assessment of inflation prospects in Vietnam:

With current economic management and control measures, the inflation

prospects in Vietnam in 2024 are assessed to be relatively stable. However, there are
still challenges and risks that could cause price fluctuations and inflation, such as
increasing energy and housing prices. For 2024, maintaining stability and continuing
to implement control measures are crucial to ensuring the economy does not face the
risk of uncontrolled inflation.
C. Proposed approaches and solutions:

To continue controlling inflation and ensuring economic stability in 2024, focus

should be on the following measures:

- Continuously improving economic and financial policies to reduce inflationary

pressures from money supply sources. This requires careful consideration and
flexibility in adjusting financial policies to meet market demands and control inflation.

- Strengthening market supervision to prevent unfair trade practices and maintain a

healthy business environment. Close cooperation between relevant authorities is
essential to ensure compliance with laws and fairness in commercial activities.

- Implementing strict control measures on public spending and enhancing resource

management to limit the increase in production and consumption costs. This requires
effective management from government agencies and related organizations.

Only through close cooperation and decisive measures can Vietnam address
and overcome challenges related to inflation, while ensuring stability and sustainable
development of the economy in the future. This requires commitment and consistency
in implementing economic control and management measures.

REFERENCES
https://m.hvtc.edu.vn/

https://tapchitaichinh.vn/

https://tapchicongsan.org.vn/

https://cafef.vn/

https://www.dnse.com.vn/

https://vioit.org.vn/vn/