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‫    _       )‪2003(6)  (25‬‬ ‫‬ ‫ ‬

‫‪Tishreen University Journal for Studies and Scientific Research- Economic Science Series Vol (25) No (6) 2003‬‬

‫‬ ‫א ) אא ‪-‬א!‬


‫ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﻭﺍﺗﺐ ﻭ ﺍﻷﺟﻮﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺳﻮﺭﻳﺎ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻨﻮﺍﻥ‪:‬‬
‫ﻣﺠﻠﺔ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺗﺸﺮﻳﻦ ﻟﻠﺒﺤﻮﺙ ﻭﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻴﺔ ‪ -‬ﺳﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺪﺭ‪:‬‬
‫*‬ ‫ﻭﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ‬
‫&‬ ‫   ‬
‫**‬ ‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺗﺸﺮﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺷﺮ‪:‬‬
‫  == ="=‬
‫***‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻄﻮﻑ‪ ،‬ﻣﺤﻤﺪ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤؤﻟﻒ ﺍﻟﺮﺋﻴﺴﻲ‪:‬‬
‫= =‪O = 2‬‬
‫ﺭﻛﺎﺝ‪ ،‬ﻳﺤﻴﻰ ﻣﺤﻤﺪ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺨﻠﻒ‪ ،‬ﻣﺤﻤﺪ)ﻡ‪ .‬ﻣﺸﺎﺭﻙ(‬ ‫ﻣؤﻟﻔﻴﻦ ﺁﺧﺮﻳﻦ‪:‬‬
‫ﻣﺞ ‪ ,25‬ﻉ ‪6‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺪ‪/‬ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺩ‪:‬‬
‫‬
‫ﻧﻌﻢ‬ ‫ﻣﺤﻜﻤﺔ‪:‬‬
‫  ‪(2003/10/13‬‬ ‫)‬
‫‪2003‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻳﺦ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﻼﺩﻱ‪:‬‬

‫"‬
‫ !‬ ‫‪65 - 80‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺤﺎﺕ‪:‬‬
‫‪112017‬‬ ‫ﺭﻗﻢ ‪:MD‬‬
‫ﺑﺤﻮﺙ ﻭﻣﻘﺎﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﻧﻮﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺘﻮﻯ‪:‬‬
‫‪2% U ) E&  3 % )   3   )  # >-= 4U6‬‬
‫‪EcoLink‬‬ ‫ﻗﻮﺍﻋﺪ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ‪:‬‬
‫ ‪4"  /  *    ) # !# #1 +  ( #3  B6‬‬
‫ﺍﻷﺣﻮﺍﻝ ﺍﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻀﺮﺍﺋﺐ ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻘﻮﺍﻧﻴﻦ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺮﻳﻌﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﺟﻮﺭ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺮﻭﺍﺗﺐ‪ ،‬ﺳﻮﺭﻳﺎ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﺣﻮﺍﻝ‬ ‫ﻣﻮﺍﺿﻴﻊ‪:‬‬
‫‪/1‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺪﺧﻞ‪/،‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺪﺍﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻯ ‪2+N‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ‪f F ،‬‬
‫ﺍﻹﻳﺮﺍﺩﺍﺕ‪/1 ;%‬‬
‫= !‬ ‫‪%%‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ‪،‬‬ ‫=;  !‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺳﺔ‬ ‫‪3  ( ( $‬‬
‫ﺍﻹﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﻴﺔ‬
‫ " ‪> = % = U  K. 4" F B6 !# )  6 8! l‬‬
‫‪http://search.mandumah.com/Record/112017‬‬
‫&   > ‪63‬‬ ‫ﺭﺍﺑﻂ‪#1 /  ;   N B6 / % ) (  @ :‬‬
‫‪R 2001  )  L /" / # % ) /" / %49.23 /1 B6R ;  ) 2‬‬
‫ >    ‪( /  "( 8.% / 6 ) ) 23 "% / "A‬‬
‫‪: # 2 ( B6 /=  A% & ; 3‬‬
‫‪. % = U  K. .1‬‬
‫‪.% )  @ > = # .2‬‬
‫‪.% )  @ > = <  .3‬‬
‫‪.% )  @ > =   ) =  .4‬‬

‫ ) ‪.   *+‬‬ ‫‪)    ) R>  #$ * I‬‬ ‫*‬

‫ ) ‪.   *+‬‬ ‫ﻣﺤﻔﻮﻇﺔ‪)   .‬‬


‫ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻮﻕ ) ‬
‫ ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ‪#$ .‬‬
‫ﺟﻤﻴﻊ‬ ‫© ‪% ** 2022‬‬
‫***ﻣﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﺗﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﻗﻊ ﻣﻊ ﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺣﻘﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺮ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺟﻤﻴﻊ ﺣﻘﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺮ ﻣﺤﻔﻮﻇﺔ‪ .‬ﻳﻤﻜﻨﻚ ﺗﺤﻤﻴﻞ ﺃﻭ ﻃﺒﺎﻋﺔ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺩﺓ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺩﺓ‬
‫&‪.   *+ )   )    ) R>  #$   9‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸﺨﺼﻲ ﻓﻘﻂ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻤﻨﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺦ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻳﻞ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺮ ﻋﺒﺮ ﺃﻱ ﻭﺳﻴﻠﺔ )ﻣﺜﻞ ﻣﻮﺍﻗﻊ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﺮﻧﺖ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻳﺪ ﺍﻻﻟﻜﺘﺮﻭﻧﻲ( ﺩﻭﻥ ﺗﺼﺮﻳﺢ ﺧﻄﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺣﻘﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺮ ﺃﻭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ‪.‬‬

‫‪65‬‬
‫    _       )‪2003(6)  (25‬‬ ‫‬ ‫ ‬
‫‪Tishreen University Journal for Studies and Scientific Research- Economic Science Series Vol (25) No (6) 2003‬‬

‫‬
‫ﺍﻹﺳﺘﺸﻬﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺏ‪:‬‬ ‫‪-‬א!‬
‫ﺇﺳﻠﻮﺏ‬ ‫אא‬
‫ﺣﺴﺐ‬ ‫)‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫א‬
‫ﺑﻨﺴﺦ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻧﺎﺕ‬ ‫ﻟﻺﺳﺘﺸﻬﺎﺩ ﺑﻬﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﻗﻢ‬

‫ﺇﺳﻠﻮﺏ ‪APA‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺼﻄﻮﻑ‪ ،‬ﻣﺤﻤﺪ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﻴﻦ‪ ،‬ﺭﻛﺎﺝ‪ ،‬ﻳﺤﻴﻰ ﻣﺤﻤﺪ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺍﻟﺨﻠﻒ‪ ،‬ﻣﺤﻤﺪ‪ .(2003) .‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﺔ *ﺍﻟﺮﻭﺍﺗﺐ ﻭ‬
‫    &‬
‫ﺍﻷﺟﻮﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺳﻮﺭﻳﺎ‪.‬ﻣﺠﻠﺔ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺗﺸﺮﻳﻦ ﻟﻠﺒﺤﻮﺙ ﻭﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻴﺔ ‪ -‬ﺳﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﺞ‬
‫**‬
‫== ="=‬ ‫ ‬
‫‪112017/Record/com.mandumah.search//:http‬‬ ‫‪ ,25‬ﻉ ‪ .80 - 65 ،6‬ﻣﺴﺘﺮﺟﻊ ﻣﻦ‬
‫***‬
‫= =‪O = 2‬‬ ‫ﺇﺳﻠﻮﺏ ‪MLA‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺼﻄﻮﻑ‪ ،‬ﻣﺤﻤﺪ ﺍﻟﺤﺴﻴﻦ‪ ،‬ﻳﺤﻴﻰ ﻣﺤﻤﺪ ﺭﻛﺎﺝ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻣﺤﻤﺪ ﺍﻟﺨﻠﻒ‪" .‬ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻀﺮﻳﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺮﻭﺍﺗﺐ ﻭ ﺍﻷﺟﻮﺭ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺳﻮﺭﻳﺎ‪".‬ﻣﺠﻠﺔ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ ﺗﺸﺮﻳﻦ ﻟﻠﺒﺤﻮﺙ ﻭﺍﻟﺪﺭﺍﺳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻴﺔ ‪ -‬ﺳﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻮﻡ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻮﻧﻴﺔﻣﺞ ‪ ,25‬ﻉ ‪6‬‬
‫)‪ .80 - 65 :(2003‬ﻣﺴﺘﺮﺟﻊ ﻣﻦ ‪112017/Record/com.mandumah.search//:http‬‬
‫‬
‫  ‪(2003/10/13‬‬ ‫)‬

‫"‬
‫ !‬

‫‪2% U ) E&  3 % )   3   )  # >-= 4U6‬‬
‫ ‪4"  /  *    ) # !# #1 +  ( #3  B6‬‬
‫‪/1 / 2+N f F  /1 ;% ! = %% !  ;= 3  ( ( $‬‬
‫ " ‪> = % = U  K. 4" F B6 !# )  6 8! l‬‬
‫@  ( ) ‪63 >   & #1 /  ;   N B6 / %‬‬
‫‪R 2001  )  L /" / # % ) /" / %49.23 /1 B6R ;  ) 2‬‬
‫ >    ‪( /  "( 8.% / 6 ) ) 23 "% / "A‬‬
‫‪: # 2 ( B6 /=  A% & ; 3‬‬
‫‪. % = U  K. .1‬‬
‫‪.% )  @ > = # .2‬‬
‫‪.% )  @ > = <  .3‬‬
‫‪.% )  @ > =   ) =  .4‬‬

‫ ) ‪.   *+‬‬ ‫‪)    ) R>  #$ * I‬‬ ‫*‬

‫ ) ‪.   *+‬‬ ‫ﻣﺤﻔﻮﻇﺔ‪)   .‬‬


‫ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻮﻕ ) ‬
‫ ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ‪#$ .‬‬
‫ﺟﻤﻴﻊ‬ ‫© ‪% ** 2022‬‬
‫***ﻣﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﺑﻨﺎﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﺗﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﻗﻊ ﻣﻊ ﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺣﻘﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺮ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺟﻤﻴﻊ ﺣﻘﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺮ ﻣﺤﻔﻮﻇﺔ‪ .‬ﻳﻤﻜﻨﻚ ﺗﺤﻤﻴﻞ ﺃﻭ ﻃﺒﺎﻋﺔ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺩﺓ ﻟﻼﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ‬ ‫ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺩﺓ‬
‫&‪.   *+ )   )    ) R>  #$   9‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸﺨﺼﻲ ﻓﻘﻂ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﻤﻨﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺦ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻮﻳﻞ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺮ ﻋﺒﺮ ﺃﻱ ﻭﺳﻴﻠﺔ )ﻣﺜﻞ ﻣﻮﺍﻗﻊ ﺍﻻﻧﺘﺮﻧﺖ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺒﺮﻳﺪ ﺍﻻﻟﻜﺘﺮﻭﻧﻲ( ﺩﻭﻥ ﺗﺼﺮﻳﺢ ﺧﻄﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺃﺻﺤﺎﺏ ﺣﻘﻮﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺮ ﺃﻭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻈﻮﻣﺔ‪.‬‬

‫‪65‬‬
2003(6)  (25)       _       
Tishreen University Journal for Studies and Scientific Research- Economic Science Series Vol (25) No (6) 2003

!‫א‬- ‫א ) אא‬

*
&    
**
="= ==  
***
O = 2= =


(2003/10/13   )

"
! 

2% U ) E&  3 % )   3   )  # >-= 4U6
4"  /  *    ) # !# #1 +  ( #3  B6 
/1 / 2+N f F  /1 ;% ! = %% !  ;= 3  ( ( $
> = % = U  K. 4" F B6 !# )  6 8! l " 
63 >   & #1 /  ;   N B6 / % ) (  @
R 2001  )  L /" / # % ) /" / %49.23 /1 B6R ;  ) 2
( /  "( 8.% / 6 ) ) 23 "% / "A    > 
: # 2 ( B6 /=  A% & ; 3
. % = U  K. .1
.% )  @ > = # .2
.% )  @ > = <  .3
.% )  @ > =   ) =  .4

.   *+ )  )    ) R>  #$ * I *

.   *+ )  )    )    #$ % **

.   *+ )   )    ) R>  #$   9&***

65
2003(6)  (25)       _       
Tishreen University Journal for Studies and Scientific Research- Economic Science Series Vol (25) No (6) 2003

An Analytical Study of Taxes on Salaries and Wages in Syria

Dr. M. Al Satoof *
Dr. M Al Khalaf**
Yhyia Rakkaj ***

(Accepted 13/10/2003)

ABSTRACT

Taxes are generally given high priority by all governments, but in Syria, in
particular, concern with taxes is part of the process of development and modernization
the country is currently witnessing. The Syrian government's policy is to raise people's
consciousness and change their preconceptions about the country's taxation system.
Thus, the paper tries to explain the characteristics of the tax system, with
particular emphasis on taxes on salaries and wages in terms of revenues and fairness.
This is because a great number of people is affected: 49.23% of workers in 2001 in
Syria were wage earners. Moreover, taxes on wages are unavoidable and represent a
direct and effective means of limiting consumption, narrowing the gap between
classes, and encouraging savings and investment. The study includes the following
points:
1. Features of the Syrian tax system.
2. The essence of taxes on salaries and wages in Syria.
3. Increase of revenues from taxes and wages in Syria.
4. Fairness of taxes on wages and salaries in Syria.

*
Professor at the Department of Statistics- Faculty of Economic- Tishreen University.
**
Lecturer at the Department of Economic -Faculty of Economic- Tishreen University.
***
M.A Student at the Department of Statistics - Faculty of Economic-Tishreen University.

66
:"
!  3  9!# &%   W  +.  / B6 L% 
)  + 7(6 4%)     3 #1 /  & #  '() & !  K%
/   7 26 ,& /  / & ;+ 2< 4"  N 2+
) %%1 21  3  ( & ) # $ B6 "6 )  = 4< L ") (
.      )  %% 7(6

 :$ ‫'א‬
7 =" =) )  :3 4"   0%@ ) B6 " 3 / 
& - ; " /"6 ! - ( ; ) ( >%  /1 > )    "6
& >61 /  1 >-= / ) /1 >   & >61 /[)  < (
%T %  /6@ , ) =  .- )@ / 2%  7(6 ( =& 
/ (  % L ") /6 :  / '+ > / : 1 / "& ;%   2(
%% ) .& ()  (  #U  B6 4< V ! @ )=N @ .&
.)# %% 7(6 4< V /1  , /       %

 :$ ‫א‬%&
/ 6 2-  >  =  /L )@ 3 / B6 #1 ; 
++ 4< V   > 6 ) -3 )  ( 4< )    :N
 / .A ;  ( % ) =) "      3   "" 6  
. 2#U ) K= F= /    >-= 1 26 = &%  5%

 :$ ‫א‬
2#U" -. -6< 7 .& / ""6  W  4"  B6 !# + < u 
.%

 :$ ‫)א‬
:# /6 /V% 4"  N B6 =) E&"
  % N   5<  %   @ > = 7(6 #
?=

67
A@ !#  # ? @ > = < 4" > 4" "6 2+ AV #
? @ > =  * 4"


 :" ‫א‬$ ‫א‬
, %6 7 = U    4" F ) (% B6 U +  (
/ =  % U  !# ) Y.N >  &@ %(   )  ) 2 >-=
 >    !  4@  = ;3   > 6 B6 % 9!#
""6 % )   B6 >& &    & 6  " = ;3 
> 8!  >-= " (  0%@ ,     >-= B6 / = U   
*% 4" =  4< ) 7 B6 3   " = ;3  
. = U    )  ( % .& /   *% 4" F" 
5A.A 2 ) ." 6  "    )   > 4" @ ( 
/%6  "   "" 6.< #  % = U "" /  2000  
"6 % )  + $"" /  1995 %  5A.A 2 ) f W#
 %&  5A.A 2 ) >6 0   "   "" = Y.N 3
.""( )      = Y.N"" /  1986
:E # 3 Y0 Z+ )K I
 (  ,- / ( 3 /   / % = U  FL
 ' $      .
' 7(6 "& % / ( (%  ) U  
7%  U  26 26 FV     W%   )   .) ( %  %% 2
:/= 1949 1 21 M 85  3 % A % 4"  ! 
     F6 / % /    ) Y@ & 4" = 

. 
. @ > 

2  !&L  23 >-= /   / % =   FL 
& >-= , 5 A% R"-   61 F"  51 4< U   =" =&
4" , R % / (  /+ 46 B6   ( 5N , /=   
1 % 5N , 5% ~   /  "& >%L @ 0V / : @ ,
 U 1 %@ *% ; #   !< 5N 9!# >-= %  =  >"%1 
 g    !g    " 3 5< /O 61  1   [) " /+  .& / <
.#       5=N

68
/  3  "A % 23  >-= U 23 >-= 4< )=N
E&3 / '1 )    ()  7(6   7(6 ) 23 >-= " 3  #@
0 .
' ) ((6 = N #   !< /  #A1  U  " =
( N
:  #$ . 9   3  @  )K 01
 6 U %  ;  / + 6  :  L  @ > = Fug
 4"  2 Y  4< V E& :( /"" %   >6 (
:) ]" / 1 % ) '( / !< &  +& / '= 1 ' 1 1 ' 4=( E&3
[& / ]1C& ) 1 % ) '( / !<   +& / % ) #1 & / '=
= U  ) 23 >-=" = - 4"1 /  @ > = - 
 %6  " + 26 /     Y@ = -  %
= 26 R = 3 :[& / ]1 # " ( ) #%  p E-& /
.= E&3 R @ L R @  R @ 3 R = "< R
"- 5@ 2+ ; 5N 2+ 8!  & K-3 4"  >%  +  1 
& = K-3 /  " ) " ((6 ) #%  L /3 (   
:* 6   )=<    %  % ) (  @ >
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.(  (  -" Z7 ) .[1968)45] [1957)1174 C] M$ 9[ 2 :
 & K-3 *
 =    & K-3

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2001
46 4 6
%5.75 %5 2000R1001 0.1000
( )
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/ "6 2) /@ () 4@ 63 4<   & / !< '&   /" 2A  K-3
.[1987f ] 47(6
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 /! /" " 0. 150 4< 6 !# ;) 0.100 9 4 4 1 6 ) & / +  •
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.[2001 R8%]52001  0&
( f  / / !< () "- ,    L )  83 4 •
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/     % N   5@ + 2 4 6" 1952  /% 1 /  F=s •
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1 /!  ! @ /  5N !# / %  [1986R23/ (][1969R26%][1952
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+   /!" 1960  0.150 4< 6 !# ;) 2 8" ) /"  "   
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/1 < &"  L / %      L : /1   &3   3 
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/   /   7(6 ) #% 2 5< / (  2 %   > / %30 1
7% FU %@ $ 5= ) 1 < 6 2 )  (" '%%1 1 ' #
46 " 2 6 4" 4 4 @ 6 5()    % 4" U)6 >   7) &=
+ ' "-= % < 2000  ) % 2 -  3  B6 "% 2 2001 
% =&< >   # ()  8! ) >-= 4"  / : =1 2001  )
.2%

70
:  #$ . 9   3  8 & )K11
U  ) 23 >-=" = - 4"1 /  @ > = - 
>-= %1 /  26 /     Y@ = -  % =
6 / #( > ) %%1  3 #1 4"  9(% 6 Y= .
' 6 23
> 2+ < +  @ > 2+ ; >% ) % >-=  ').& .
' )
% 8!  % )  @ > = < = N  /  " )
.2001R1990 2" = N 4<  @ > = <

2  -
#$   3  > 28 . 9   3  8 0 . 9   3  8   3  > &
.(    X  >)2001)1990 ( 4  
[ 7> A] :7
> =  %
 4<  @ % >-=   @ > =  
%=
8.35 22123000 1848000 1990
6.40 27720200 1775000 1991
8.08 29408200 2375000 1992
8.48 29488600 2500000 1993
9.10 40455600 3680000 1994
7.87 48903000 3850000 1995
7.50 57371000 4300000 1996
6.49 69296000 4500000 1997
6.75 75516000 5100000 1998
6.29 82686000 5200000 1999
6.40 85913000 5500000 2000
5.52 115932000 6400000 2001

8!   3 % 2) )  @ > = < + U6. 7%   /
A% ;3 2+ / %  2+ () /"  2+ >"  + >%
" #% @ /U , 8 /  !# 7)    ) 1991  ) ,&  1
'=1 U6.  U  & 4" >-= /  .  6 " #  1 ( C&
8" + #( +  = N )  @ > = < #% % ,& 
% >-=  = N 2+ 2001  4 6 2+ 4<  8! N

71
7 ) ;% = / ( , .      % & >-= '&
/  / 2% / 5 4< )  %  / 1994  ) % 2+ 1 A% / 
.V 5< >-= / 2 ;3 , 0%L 10  A%
:. 9   3 - #$   3  )K
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% ) ,&    3 =   K= /    8! &@ ;  / &@
:#@ 64 = )  @ > = 
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.B6
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.
 [) )  + # 2+ % 7(6 4"  #)1 K 4  /1 
+ 4 1 6 /L @ 4" R  +  )   61 R >-=" =) ) 
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/ 4 1 6 5< ; +. "6 /L  1 /  @ > 4"  >-= 
  5N /@ U  " 3 ;) 4" 2( 1 7 4" "  /  8! # >
% < /#   )  3    =&   4" U)6 2 % #   3
  )  @ > = 4<  U ")  " 1 / =g) ! ,$     ' "-=
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 6 )   4" = ]" B6 =  ) K= /    = 2)
:[2000/A]8 )
%    
%20 ' %  50000 46 4 6
%32 ' %  50000 4" +

  F"  6 >%  > :  4" &3 5<   [) 5N B6 / 1
; >+@ "  1440 < F=s 4 1 6 &3 5< ' %  2000 4 B6
%10 '=1 4  s ! "  1920 61   C+ "  1680 K
26 5N , ' %  1000 +   /1 4"  L" %15 N 4" 6 (
.= ,
 5N "6 2) 6 / K= / U6. 5N K-3 / %  (
 L / ( ' 4(  L 5< /1 '" % ;  (  ) &% ;3 ((6

72
 2A   / 26 ;  ( =  F= 4"   # . U  
*6< ; 0  6 4<   3       26 = U &%
.( 
2) / 26  7 4" '=1 9&  *&1  /  ( 4" @ ( 
) '6= '3   [) 2002  1990  >-= 4<  U ") *> ) $  ; *&1
) = / " 63" 2+ :=& > 2+ ;    =  
5 4< %  " = = 2002 19901 ) /U" / > /  "
: =
3  -
9   3 - 0 $3>  60 & C 973  4 Y 74 G     9 
.(  (   C)2002)1990AI
[1985)25] 0C    F  1985    #. Y0 K C$ 9  :9
.[2002)28] [2000)36] [1994)3] [1991)22 0] [1989)3] [1987)6 0]
 0 %40 -+" 24 20.  Z7  K C$ 6 8  $ 60 973
= %
= % ***
> 

2002   >-= >-=  >
2002 2002  4<1990   23 1 
> 4< 1990 1990
>
%
%
9.99 632 6325 7.92 205 2590 9 
9.47 559 5905 7.73 187 2420 % 
9.16 521 5685 7.57 176 2325  %4 2+ <  "
8.88 487 5485 7.44 167 2245  %4 2+ <
7.01 300 4280 6.69 117 1750  +    A
6.47 258 3990 6.54 107 1635 *&1  A
6.05 221 3655 6.35 95 1495 <
8.88 487 5485 7.44 167 2245 23 + "  
7.91 386 4880 6.90 138 2000   "
8.57 454 5295 7.25 157 2165 / )
5.48 174 3175 6.00 78 1300 23 / "=  >" 

.> + AL  >-= K-3 >% .& / ((6 ) #%s =  /1  4" *

2002/6/1 / ' > ***

73
 "& U   / & ) / U6. 7%   .& /
4< > 2+ ;=&s ! @ K-3  >% 8! > + 7) >-=
4 @ 6 2+ ) 4 4 @ 6 2+   '  =    2&@ 63
< 6 !#  "    2002  ) K-3 ,    ' >-= >% ,&  4
'~$ +  # =&  & K-3 %  ' / 4 4 @ 6 /@ 8! 2 (  1
"   !  =   ' ' K-3  >%  /@ K-3  % 
0  !  "( > >-= >%  7) ;  %  6 A ! +  4 6 
4" K-3  ((6   ( 4" ()  !# ;+ U  >-= + 
.  ; >%  =    ;) B6 )@ /  2%
:[1993 "]10/1  >-= ; 1990  > +  4 6  >%6

ℓ0 = 1 − ∑ α iβ i
= 0 . 03
5000
a + a i+1
B6
i
αi =
2
>-="   %  αi
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5 6 A K-3  >% > -) = K-3 / ) U   ;+
:   3  =  ) 2 K-3 -) ) % ; "

1990 A 973 9   F0 #00 1  - 

74
 +  0( ( 3 # 0.06= > >-= / 0( /[) 2002  ) 
>-= % / +  # " 63" ;=&  ' '% " > 2+) 1990
- / %  7) 9U  # 0(  >( ) #% 4 4 @ 6 2+ /  )
.1990  ) 1.92 2002  ) 4.51 ]" B6 2&@ 4@
> -) / ;+  F= 4<   = , #  0(  /< 
 V   3   *&@ 2 / "& $ +     " 4<   ()
/%   & & 2 5 [ '%6 8!  V    2) B6 /  
'(% < 3 +  2002  ) A 1990  ) >-= U6.    C+T
: " 7)
.>-= % / # ).&    : H0 - =
H0: P1-P2 =0
.>-= % / # ).&   :H1 " =
H1: P1-P2 ≠ 0
*
7R = [19862] T  1  " ( >%6
11

.23N %    # @   ! 3N :  # T B6
( 1 11 = # 5%  *% 11 6       (  (
# ).&   4" E  !  , (  [)    ( /  1 %6
 ) #% ;+ ) U  2+ 4< Q 4 6 2+ /1  !# >-= >% /
. A 1 =
% / # ).&   / / >-= % =) & Us 
 )6  144.91 1990  ) (% - ) >-= % /1 " ![) >-=
:& /  142.93 #  )6  407.18 # 2002  ) % 38.97#
.>-= % / # ).&   :H0- =
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H1: µ 1-µ 0 ≠ 0
:[1993 "] /1  6 ;  /1  4" %95 9 6 & 5 [
10

t =
(x 1 )
− x2 − 0
= 5 . 87
2 2
s1 s
+ 2
n1 n2
.1.812 #   t 
  !# " (  %%@ = ,)    /  1 %6 ( 1
 #  63" > /  1 % :=& > 2+ >% 8! / . / 7)  

.3  76"   6= >%6 ( *

75
+  4 6  '=1 9 V  !#  @ > = %  =  F= ("  
>-= % / 8!  ;+ U   4"  0.03 ]" B6 2002>-= 1990 >-= /
  ;+ ) U      F= V  # 0.03 ]" B6 2002 >-= 1990
1] 12B6 "( C+@ /  ( 0 '=1 9 V  !# >%  7) =) & 9 V
:[2000K
H0: P1-P2 =0 >-= % / # ).&   H0
.H1: P1-P2 ≠ 0 >-= % / # ).&   :H1
: # %6 ( /[) # 
D −δ 0
t % 95 = = 3 . 36
SD / n
%5  *%   1.812   (
" = (   = ,)  [) 8! %6 ( / 1   ( / 
./%  / 7)   ( 
  /% / ) >-= % / # ).&   /[) &
> & 2+ ;   #U  3 >%  >-= >% / -6<  ! # ).&
 ) 6  =    K-3 >-= / ;+  F= 4" 
4 @ 6 6 "6 2) B6 / -+    ("    # " 3V /
.*&1 = U 1 ;  (     () (% 2) ;  ( 4


 :‫א   א  א‬
:U6. > ) $ ) .& ) >-=" 7% , .& /
.&= %T % $ U )  $ 7(6  " 4 4 @ 6 /< R1
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>%  ;3 /+ ;  ( >%   = Y 7# > / ( >-= R3
.1949  K-3
63 9!# >61    @ > = 6 )  ;  / + 6 ( /< R4
. 3   Y@ >61 > U ) N  /  @ 5> /"6
 ) 8!  2002  ) & K-3 /  @ > = )     R5
& / 26 % / . ) ) >-=    !< 1990
: %@ ) $ 4<  U  ) x 2    )  ' 2 ( >%  /< R6
.F  6 /L +. (  3 F 

76
# 4" '-  3 = ; 3 /L    L ) 83 : /< R7
>-= % # >-= / 2  L /1   )   < / 6 (# 
.."(%   Q 
:O (  4"  L /  B6 & )
= 7 ;%  /< '6   = K-3 >%  ) U  2< >  R1
.=  M% "6 2)  1 / 26
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.. =) / F $ (  46 %@ ) $
&  7)   3 >-=" ()    5N % >  R3
.%%@ 26 " 2-% %@ & % ; >%  46  % <   
  )  / Y   /  * =    4"  >  R4
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.>-= / 2  
 1 /  @ > = / $  4" (   ;3 5< >  R7
.A% 2+ 4" ;3 9!# +6

$ 1  1 /[) " ) 3   ()    :=@ $ 'U / 
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..6 %    5N 7" ) '& A @ 4"  % ;1 4< / % 

77
   ‫א‬

(1=) M (4 = 2  1 =)  - 


(  (  973 9 )  %40 #$ 973 1990 A 9   F0 #00   9 A -

  
% Bi   % ai 
- 
% bi 
 >-
=  >
& iB i &I
>" >-=" >" 1990 1990
143.65 11.68 12.30 12.86 11.68 205 2590
257.31 22.60 11.39 11.73 10.92 187 2420
355.97 33.09 10.76 11.04 10.49 176 2325
384.95 43.21 8.91 10.48 10.13 167 2245
359.08 51.11 7.03 7.34 7.89 117 1750
370.54 58.48 6.34 6.71 7.37 107 1635
536.03 65.22 8.22 5.96 6.74 95 1495
720.88 75.35 9.57 10.48 10.13 167 2245
780.72 84.37 9.25 8.66 9.02 138 2000
693.92 94.14 7.37 9.85 9.77 157 2165
244.67 100.00 2.45 4.89 5.86 78 1300
4847.71 1594 22170
0(  0.03

(2=) M
(  (  973 9 ) %40 #$ 973 2002 A 9   F0 #00   9 A -
% Bi   % 
- 
%   >-=  >
& iB i &I
>"   ai >-=" bi >" 2002 2002
166.73 11.68 14.28 15.15 11.68 632 6325
292.35 22.58 12.95 13.40 10.90 559 5905
399.69 33.08 12.08 12.49 10.50 521 5685
407.61 43.21 9.43 11.68 10.13 487 5485
341.86 51.11 6.69 7.19 7.90 300 4280
335.76 58.47 5.74 6.19 7.37 258 3990
312.75 65.22 4.80 5.30 6.75 221 3655
510.35 75.35 6.77 4.29 10.13 179 5485
849.48 84.36 10.07 9.25 9.01 386 4880
708.68 94.14 7.53 10.88 9.78 454 5295
208.58 100.00 2.09 4.17 5.86 174 3175
4533.85 0(  0.09 4171 54160

78
(3=) M
90 \*@  0C   "  3  #  % C C 2002 1990 AI #$ 9  28 973 0
23 ! > >% / 7 1990  = % 2002 = % 
 2
3 1 

7" 
'  @ >-= % 4< % 4< 
11 2.07 7.92 9.99 2 
10 1.74 7.73 9.47 % 
9 1.59 7.57 9.16  %4 2+ <  "
7.5 1.44 7.44 8.88  %4 2+ <
+    A
3 0.32 6.69 7.01

-1 -1 -0.07 6.54 6.47 *&1  A
-2 -2 -0.30 6.35 6.05 
7.5 1.44 7.44 8.88 23 + "  
5 1.01 6.9 7.91   "
6 1.32 7.25 8.57 / )
"=  >" 
-4 -4 -0.52 6 5.48
23 /
7 R T=

(4=) M
.(  (  9  973) 2002 973 1990 973  C  OF. 90 9 -
 >-= % >-
= 
%
>-= >-=
>% / 7 ;) d2 >% / 7) d
4< 1990 4< 2002   
(>-= (>-=
%> %> 1990 2002
4.31 2.08 7.92 9.99 205 632
3.03 1.74 7.73 9.47 187 559
2.54 1.59 7.57 9.16 176 521
2.07 1.44 7.44 8.88 167 487
0.10 0.32 6.69 7.01 117 300
0.01 -0.08 6.54 6.47 107 258
0.09 -0.31 6.35 6.05 95 221
2.07 1.44 7.44 8.88 167 487
1.02 1.01 6.90 7.91 138 386
1.75 1.32 7.25 8.57 157 454
0.27 -0.52 6.00 5.48 78 174
17.27 10.04

79
 6‫אא‬
 .................................

.& /  R1
.1957  1174  ( R 2
1968.  45 %
  %%V  1987 R" ( " %%1R>-= @  / 03 . R 3
.%"
.& /  .  )(A +   1987   ) >-= Y f . R 4
.2001 8  % R 5
.1952  179  % R 6
.1969  226  %
.1986  23  / (
.-6N   R 7
. %    2000 /( ""6 & = U  ++ % /A . R 8
.1985R /"" 6 %%@ U  R 9
.1985 R25  %
.1987 R6  / (
.1989 R3  %
.1991 R22  / (
.1994 R3  %
.2000 R36 %
2002. R28 %
.% /3  1993 56N p 6 #< ". R 10
1988 % N "  ) B6" 56 F% "& ""&. &/"% 61 2 . R 11
./@ /   
./@  +  2000-6N 7  6 6 K 1 R 12

80

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