WORKING PAPER SERIES NO.

2014-11

KSBL WORKING PAPER SERIES

Climatic Shocks and Child Human Capital:

Evidence from Ethiopia

Asma Hyder
Jere R. Behrman*

Karachi School for Business & Leadership

www.ksbl.edu.pk
 About KSBL
The Karachi School for Business and Leadership (KSBL) was
established because a group of Pakistani business and corporate
leaders recognized that Karachi, the business and commercial hub
of Pakistan, needed a world-class business school. They
envisioned KSBL as a graduate management school that would
offer high quality leading edge programmes to the many talented
young men and women in the country as well as those from
abroad.
KSBL is a school with a social conscience and will promote
economic and social change by developing leaders who will impact
organizations through their knowledge, skills and expertise, as well
as contribute to business excellence by ensuring the application of
highly professional and ethical practices in the national and
international marketplace.

Faculty at KSBL
Dr. Shaukat A. Brah
PhD, University of Houston
Dr. Imran Ali
PhD, Australian National University
Dr. Zeeshan Ahmed
PhD, Mississippi State University, USA
Dr. Jawaid A. Ghani
PhD, University of Pennsylvania (Wharton School)
Dr. Rizwan Amin Sheikh
PhD, SKEMA Business School, France
Dr. Faheem Ul Islam
PhD, Judge Business School, University of Cambridge, UK
Dr. Farzad Rafi Khan
PhD, McGill University, Canada
Dr. Ali Khalil Malik
PhD Manchester Business School, University of Manchester UK
Dr. Asma Hyder Baloch
PhD, NUST, Pakistan & Sussex University, UK
Dr. Muhammad Nadeem Javaid
PhD, Sophia Antipolis, France
Dr. Muhammad Athar Siddiqui
PhD, University Strathclyde, UK
 WORKING PAPER SERIES NO. 2014-11

Climatic Shocks and Child Human Capital:

Evidence from Ethiopia

Asma Hyder
Assistant Professor
Karachi School for Business and Leadership (KSBL)
baloch.asma@gmail.com

Jere R. Behrman*
William R, Kenan, Jr Professor of Economics and Sociology
and Research Associate, Population Studies Center
University of Pennsylvania, USA.
jbehrman@econ.upenn.edu

2014

Karachi School for Business & Leadership

National Stadium Road, Opp. Liaquat National Hospital
Karachi, Pakistan
www.ksbl.edu.pk

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 A SM A H YD ER / JE R E R . B EH R M A N

Abstract
We examine the impact of four different climatic shocks as perceived my households and community
representatives on child learning and health outcomes in Ethiopia; one of the poorest countries in Sub-
Saharan Africa (SSA). Two waves of household panel data for years 2006 and 2009 are used and data is
collected from both urban and rural areas of Ethiopia. Both individually- reported and community-level
shocks (reported by community representatives) are investigated. A priori the impact of negative shocks
on schooling may be negative (if income effects dominate) or positive (if price effects dominate). Also the
effects may be larger for measures of idiosyncratic shocks (if there is considerable within-community
variation in experiencing shocks) or for aggregate shocks (if community support networks buffer better
idiosyncratic than aggregate shocks). For child learning outcomes we use enrollment, Peabody Picture
Vocabulary and math test scores and for health outcomes we use body mass index (BMI) Z-scores and
height-for-age (HFA) Z scores.

Key words: Climatic Shocks, Child Learning, Child Health and Nutritional Status, Sub-Saharan Africa

______________________________________________________________________________________________________
* This research has been supported in part by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (Global Health Grant OPP10327313),
Eunice Shriver Kennedy National Institute of Child Health and Development (Grant R01 HD070993) and Grand Challenges
Canada (Grant 0072-03 to the Grantee, The Trustees of the University of Pennsylvania). The data used in this study come from
Young Lives, a 15-year survey investigating the changing nature of childhood poverty in Ethiopia, India (Andhra Pradesh), Peru
and Vietnam (www.younglives.org.uk). Young Lives is core-funded by UK aid from the Department for International
Development (DFID) and co-funded from 2010-2014 by the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

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W O R K I N G P A P E R S E R I E S N O . 2 0 1 4 - 1 1
Introduction
In recent years considerable attention has
been given to investigation of causes and effects of
various dimensions of climatic shocks. Droughts,
floods, storms and other events have potentials to
disrupt people’s lives, leading to losses of income,
assets and opportunities. Periodic shocks such as
droughts and heavy rains can add immediate crises
to chronic difficulties linked to high poverty levels
and dependence on rain-fed agriculture. As a
result, particularly children and women, especially
those with poor nutritional status, are at higher
risk of death and disease when negative shocks
occur (UNICEF 2011). Children are highly
vulnerable to disasters, in part because of their
particular stage of physiological and social
development (Seballos et al. (2011)). Investments
in children’s human capital can take different
forms, including investment in biological human
capital (for example, health and nutritional status)
and intellectual human capital (schooling and
cognitive skills) (Behrman et al. 2008, Cengage
2005) – all of which may be affected by climatic
shocks.
The consequences of climatic shocks are likely
to be more severe in underdeveloped societies as
compared to developed countries due to poorer
coping strategies. Climatic shocks may have longer-
term and more severe consequences as compared
to idiosyncratic shocks because buffer mechanisms
like social networks cannot buffer well such shocks
because of their usual scale. The coping strategies
may be dependent on foreign intervention in terms
of aid, help from governments and help from
NGOs. Thus in this study we restrict ourselves to
climatic shocks and we explore whether foreign
interventions, governmental aid, and cash received
recently from any source can help to buffer such
climatic shocks.
The impacts of climatic shocks on child human
capital may be positive or negative. Ferreira and
Schady (2009), for example, note that the sign of
effects of aggregate negative economic shocks on
investment in schooling are theoretically
ambiguous because of a tension between income
and substitution effects. If capital markets are
imperfect for human capital investments and
smoothing over time is costly, the income effect is
likely to reduce child schooling. However the price
effect through reduced returns on current child
employment via less hours worked or less income
per hour worked means that the opportunity cost
of going to school tends to decline. Most empirical
studies find that negative aggregate economic
shocks have adverse effects on child schooling,
suggesting that income effects dominate (Escobal.
et al. 2005 and Fallon and Lucas, 2002). Duryea and
Arends-Kuenning (2003) analyze urban Brazilian
children aged 14-16 years and find that negative
income shocks resulted in increases in dropping
out from school and joining the labor market.
Jensen (2000) finds that Cote d'Ivoire school
enrollment declined by between one-third and one
-half due to unfavorable weather shocks. Similar
results are also reported by Jacoby and Skoufias
(1997) for households in India, Sawada and Lokshin
(1999) for Pakistan and Beegle et al. (2006) for
Tanzania. Flug, Spilimbergo, and Wachtenheim
(1998) analyze cross-country panel data from 88
countries for 1970–92 and find that income and
employment volatility had significant negative
effects on school enrollment in low-income
countries. Some studies in developed countries
(see for example, Ruhm, 2003 and 2005; Dehejia
and Lleras-Muney, 2004) argue in favour of a
counter-cyclical effect of income on health.
The aim of this paper is to investigate the
impact of climatic shocks on child schooling
enrollment and their abilities and learning
processes for children as they enter adolescence in
the very poor country of Ethiopia. Ethiopia is a
populous Sub-Saharan Africa country with a
population of over 90 million. Ethiopia is one of the
poorest countries of the world. The average Gross
National Income (GNI) per capita is only US$971,
which is far below the average value for sub-
Saharan African countries of $1,966 (UNDP 2011).
PAGE 4

Ethiopia has a low human development index of
0.383, ranked 174 out of 187 countries in the
UNDP’s Human Development report (2011).
Almost 40% of the rural population is living in
poverty and about 29% of the population is living
in extreme poverty with an income of less than one
dollar per capita per day. Ethiopia’s economy is
based mainly on agriculture, including crop and
livestock production, which contributes 45% of the
national Gross Domestic Product (GDP), more than
80% of employment and over 90% of the foreign
exchange earnings of the country (Mininistry of
Agricultue 2010). The Ethiopian economy,
particularly the large agricultural sector, is
extremely vulnerable to external shocks like
climate fluctuations, global price fluctuations of
exports and imports and other external factors
(Shitarek 2012). Rainfall and temperature patterns
vary widely because of Ethiopia’s location in the
tropics and its diverse topography.
In this study we exploit the Young Lives Older
Cohort panel data of Ethiopia for round 2 (2006)
and round 3 (2009) to study the impacts of
different climatic shocks on child human capital for
young adolescents. We study the impacts of
different climatic shocks separately because of
their different natures; some have long-term and
some have short-term effects. Although all climatic
shocks affect crop production, floods can destroy
households, assets and
infrastructure, which can
further inhibit income-
generating activities
(Garbero and Muttarak
2012). After floods, land
becomes more fertile and
there are chances of good
crops in subsequent
seasons, but droughts have
different and more adverse
long-term impacts on soil.
Therefore we study the
impacts of four climatic
shocks based on
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A SM A H YD ER / JE R E R . B EH R M A N
households’ reported perceptions; (1) Drought, (2)
Floods, (3) Hailstorms/ Land Erosion, (4) Crop
Failure and death of livestock due to disease,
epidemics and pesticides. Since all these shocks are
based on individuals’ perceptions, the reports of
these shocks may be based on their coping
strategy. Thus we also include another measure of
these shocks “Community Level Shocks” based on
the response of a designated community
representative about whether the community
experienced these climatic shocks.
The impacts of the shocks on child human
capital may differ for different human capital
outcomes. The opportunity cost of time in the
labor force, for example, may be more important
for investments in learning through attending
school than for, say, nutritional status. We consider
five different outcomes i.e., three outcomes for
learning and two outcomes to measure health and
nutritional status. The outcome variables for
learning are: (1) child school enrollment, (2)
Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test scores and (3)
mathematics test scores. For health and nutritional
status we use body mass index and height-to-age z
scores.
Data
We use Young Lives data for the Older Cohort
from Ethiopia. Our panel consists of two rounds
Figure 1: Regions of Ethiopia
W O R K I N G P A P E R S E R I E S N O . 2 0 1 4 - 1 1

i.e., round 2 (year=2006) when the children were 11-12 years old and round 3 (year=2009) when the
children were 14-15 years old. The data are collected from both urban and rural areas in five regions:
Addis Ababa, Amhara, Oromia, SNNP and Tigray. Table 1 gives summary statistics for the variables that
we use in the analysis

Table 1 Summary Statistics

Year=2006 Year=2009

Variable Obs Mean Std. Min Max Obs Mean Std. Min Max
Dev. Dev.
Enrolled=1 953 0.97 0.16 0 1 972 0.89 0.31 0 1
PPVT 439 300 50 162.75 401.4 443 299.98 15.1 254.1 355.0
Math Test 793 300 49.93 164.15 441.6 802 299.93 14.9 272.5 343.5
ZBMI 978 -1.636 1.12 -6.24 3.29 969 -1.72 1.18 -5.61 1.68
ZHFA 978 -1.394 1.27 -7.15 2.44 969 -1.37 1.29 -6.02 2.45
Age (Months) 979 145.24 3.81 135.84 155.4 938 180.36 3.58 173.2 192.2
Gender 979 1.48 0.50 1 2 938 1.48 0.50 1 2
Wealth Index 979 0.29 0.17 0 0.84 938 0.348 0.16 0 0.86
Household Size 979 6.50 2.05 2 13 938 6.35 2.12 1 13
Mother Education Pri- 979 0.23 0.42 0 1 974 0.18 0.38 0 1
mary
Mother’s Education 979 0.25 0.43 0 1 974 0.41 0.49 0 1
Secendary
Father Edu-1 979 0.28 0.45 0 1 974 0.18 0.38 0 1
Father’s Edu-2 979 0.38 0.48 0 1 974 0.67 0.46 0 1
Drought 979 0.31 0.46 0 1 938 0.37 0.48 0 1
Flood 979 0.13 0.34 0 1 938 0.13 0.33 0 1
Hail Storms/ Erosion 979 0.12 0.32 0 1 974 0.16 0.36 0 1
Epidemic Livestock and 979 0.27 0.44 0 1 974 0.37 0.48 0 1
pests & Disease to Crops

Drought_Comm 979 0.25 0.43 0 1 974 0.14 0.34 0 1

Flood_Comm 979 0.15 0.36 0 1 974 0.23 0.42 0 1
Hail/Strom_Comm 979 0.15 0.35 0 1 974 0.19 0.39 0 1
Crop_Comm 979 0.14 0.34 0 1 974 0.23 0.42 0 1
Help_Drought 979 0.04 0.18 0 1 938 0.03 0.17 0 1
Help_Flood 979 0.01 0.07 0 1 938 0.014 0.12 0 1
Help_Stroms 979 0.01 0.09 0 1 974 0.01 0.09 0 1
Help_crop 979 0.03 0.17 0 1 974 0.02 0.14 0 1
Help_Sh_Comm 979 0.69 0.46 0 1 974 0.58 0.49 0 1
Sitetype 979 0.59 0.49 0 1 938 0.59 0.49 0 1
Lnpop 957 9.09 0.61 7.94 10.75 884 8.97 0.72 7.73 11.15

PAGE 6

Our first measure for learning is a categorical
variable for whether or not each child is enrolled in
school. While time in schooling as reflected in
enrollment is probably an input into learning, it is
not learning per se. Also in our sample and in
much of Sub-Saharan Africa there is not much
variance in enrollments for the young adolescents
whom we consider. The enrollment rate was very
high (97%) in 2006 and 90% in 2009.
Our second and third measures for learning
are cognitive skills as measured with scores
achieved in Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test
(PPVT)1 and mathematics tests. These are direct
measures of some important dimensions of
learning. And they may be more affected by
shocks than school enrollment. For example, in
response to such shocks children may continue to
be enrolled in school but switch their time use
towards more work, which may disrupt learning
(Boyden et al. 1998: 249). Children may be too
tired to concentrate in class or do homework.
School may be scheduled at times of day difficult
for working children and children may be punished
for arriving at school late (Nieuwenhuys 1994: 70).
If children miss classes or days because of work,
they may fall behind and become discouraged
(Boyden et al. 1998: 256). If they start school late
because they have been working, they may be
embarrassed and frustrated by being older than
their classmates (Boyden et al. 1998: 256). Thus we
use two other measures i.e., PPVT and Math Score
for child learning outcomes. Children of age 11-12
years in round 2 age and 14-15 years in round 3
took the PPVT in the language in which they felt
most comfortable so they can perform to their
maximum capability. Mathematics tests in both
rounds consisted of two sections (with the first
section including addition, subtraction division and
multiplication and the second section including
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________
1
Many researchers have used Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test (PPVT) as a measure of cognitive skills of children (e.g., Desai 989,
Bau 1999, McCullah & Joshi 2002, Duc 2009, Nair 2009, Crookston et al. 2010a, b, 2013, Duc & Behrman 2013, Asmare & Berhane
2013). [[I cannot figure out what you are doing about footnotes so that this starts with 4 instead of 1, so I leave straightening out
the footnote numbering to you.]]
PAGE 7
A SM A H YD ER / JE R E R . B EH R M A N
data interpretation, problem solving and
knowledge of geometry). The averages for the
PPVT and mathematics tests are almost same in
both rounds, but variations in both tests were
higher in 2006.
Health and nutritional status are represented
by anthropometric measures of BMI and height-for
-age. Temperature and precipitation may affect
the prevalence of vector borne diseases, water
borne and water washed diseases, as well as
determine heat or cold stress exposure
(Confalonieri et al., 2007), all of which may have
short-run or longer-run implications for health and
nutritional status. BMI captures primarily short-
run effects and height is usually assumed to
represent longer-run effects. Under the
assumption that healthy children follow similar
growth patterns across different populations,
children‘s anthropometric measurements are
standardized according to the International
Reference Population defined by the U.S. National
Centre for Health Statistics (NCHS) with the
Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and the World
Health Organization (WHO). Therefore
anthropometric measurements are expressed as z-
scores, that is, a child‘s measurements are
compared to those of child of the same age and
gender in a healthy reference population that has a
z-score with mean zero and standard deviation of
one. The Ethiopian children in our sample for the
most part have a low distribution of
anthropometric values, with means and most of
the distributions substantially below the
international reference standards. In our data
almost 30% children are stunted (less than -2 HFA Z
-score) and almost 50% of children in this cohort
are under weight (less than -2 BMI Z-Score). This
implies generally poor nutritional status, both in
the short run (BMI) and longer run (HFA).
 W O R K I N G P A P E R S E R I E S N O . 2 0 1 4 - 1 1
To measure the climatic shocks we use four
categorical variables: whether respondents have
experienced during the last four years, in order of
their prevalence as reported by the individual
respondents: (1) drought (31% in 2006, 37% in
2009), (2) livestock epidemics and crop pests and
diseases (27%, 37%) that may be affected by
climatic variations among other factors, (3)
hailstorms and land erosion (12%, 16%)2, and (4)
floods (13%, 13%)3. The respondents reported the
first two at least twice as frequently than they
reported the last two. In agriculture of the types in
these villages, with considerable heterogeneity at
the very local level with regard to topography and
water conditions, individual shocks do NOT
necessarily reflect community-level shocks. In this
type of agriculture, these problems may affect one
plot and not the next or they may affect many
plots and thus be community-level. For this reason
we also estimate the impact of these climatic
shocks reported by community informants in
addition to those reported at the individual level.
The community informant reports, however, are
more equal among these four shocks than are the
individual reports: (1) drought (25%, 14%), (2)
livestock epidemics and crop pests and diseases
(14%, 23%), (3) hailstorms and land erosion (15%,
19%), and (4) floods (15%, 23%). This suggests that
individual respondents perceive more difficulties in
coping relatively with the first two of these than do
community informants. To explore whether
foreign interventions, government aid, and cash
received recently from any source help buffer such
climatic shocks, we include household responses
about receiving help from these sources. The
individual reports on such help in response of
respective shock are small, ranging from 1 to 4%.
In addition to climatic shocks and sources of
resources for buffering the shock, we include as
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________
2
This type of shock tends to be higher in the SNNPR and Oromia regions (Mulugeta 2009).
3
Some other studies of the perceptions of respondents in different developing countries about the incidence of different types of
climatic shocks include Verdu (2002), Skoufias (2007) and De la Fuente (2010).
controls household characteristics (household
wealth, parental schooling, household size), child
characteristics (gender, a quadratic in age to
capture life cycle patterns) and community
characteristics (ln population, whether rural).
Results and Discussion
We estimate the five sets of equations, one
each for the three indicators of learning and for the
two indicators of health and nutritional status. In
each set of equations, we estimate eight
equations: one each of for each of the four
individual-respondent-reported shocks and one
each
This type of shock tends to be higher in the
SNNPR and Oromia regions (Mulugeta 2009).
Some other studies of the perceptions of
respondents in different developing countries
about the incidence of different types of climatic
shocks include Verdu (2002), Skoufias (2007) and
De la Fuente (2010).for each of the four
community-informant-reported shocks. In each
equation, as noted above, we control for
household, child and community characteristics. In
each equation we control for individual random
effects because we are including observations for
each individual for both round 2 and round 3.
Child Learning Outcomes
School enrollment: We find two significant
effects in probit estimates of community-level
shocks on school enrollment: negative for drought
shocks and positive for hailstorm/erosion. The
opposite signs are not necessarily puzzling, but
instead simply may reflect the dominance of
income effects of droughts and of price effects for
hailstorm/erosion. That is, for the latter case there
may be a much greater drop in the value of child
labor than in the former case. Were there data on
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 A SM A H YD ER / JE R E R . B EH R M A N

Table 2. Different Climatic Shocks and Child Enrollment (Random Effects)

Hail- Crops/ Crop/

Drought_ storm_com Livestock Live-
Drought Com Flood Flood_Com Hailstorms stock_com

Age (months) 0.001 0.01 -0.004 -0.008 -0.012 -0.03 -0.006 -0.03
[0.135] [0.135] [0.135] [0.135] [0.135] [0.135] [0.135] [0.136]
Agesq -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.00003 0.000009 -0.00006 0.00001
[0.0004] [0.0004] [0.0004] [0.0004] [0.0004] [0.0004] [0.0004] [0.0004]
Sex 0.26* 0.28* 0.26* 0.26* 0.26* 0.26* 0.26* 0.26*
[0.108] [0.108] [0.107] [0.107] [0.107] [0.108] [0.108] [0.107]
Wi 1.56*** 1.73*** 1.68*** 1.73*** 1.71*** 1.69*** 1.66*** 1.75***
[0.468] [0.469] [0.462] [0.476] [0.461] [0.467] [0.459] [0.467]
HHsize -0.031 -0.036 -0.036 -0.038 -0.036 -0.037 -0.034 -0.037
[0.0273] [0.0274] [0.027] [0.027] [0.027] [0.027] [0.027] [0.027]
Mother Edu-1 0.25 0.26 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.23 0.25 0.26
[0.17] [0.17] [0.17] [0.17] [0.17] [0.17] [0.17] [0.17]
Mother Edu-2 -0.09 -0.09 -0.091 -0.0922 -0.0931 -0.145 -0.089 -0.068
[0.129] [0.129] [0.129] [0.129] [0.129] [0.132] [0.129] [0.131]
Father Edu-1 0.05 0.03 0.059 0.06 0.07 0.05 0.06 0.04
[0.171] [0.172] [0.171] [0.171] [0.172] [0.172] [0.171] [0.172]
Father Edu-2 -0.08 -0.1 -0.06 -0.07 -0.07 -0.09 -0.07 -0.09
[0.139] [0.140] [0.140] [0.140] [0.139] [0.140] [0.139] [0.140]
Climatic ShockΨ -0.09 -0.22* 0.09 -0.03 0.23 0.35* 0.003 0.14
[0.120] [0.128] [0.154] [0.145] [0.162] [0.157] [0.116] [0.129]
ϖ
Help Received -0.19 0.09 0.35 0.07 -0.35 0.095 -0.052 0.06
[0.237] [0.110] [0.535] [0.116] [0.454] [0.110] [0.300] [0.111]
Typesite-Rural -0.24 -0.22 -0.29 -0.27 -0.31* -0.3* -0.28 -0.29
[0.193] [0.193] [0.190] [0.190] [0.191] [0.191] [0.195] [0.189]
Ln(pop) 0.14 0.11 0.13 0.118 0.107 0.09 0.13 0.14
[0.110] [0.110] [0.109] [0.110] [0.109] [0.110] [0.109] [0.112]
_cons 1.32 1.46 2.55 2.92 3.43 4.69 2.69 4.39
[10.98] [10.96] [10.95] [10.98] [10.98] [11.02] [10.95] [11.05]
N 1813 1813 1813 1813 1813 1813 1813 1813
Notes: Standard errors in brackets
="* p<0.05 **p<0.01 *** p<0.001"
Ψ Climatic Shock show the impact type of climatic event mentioned in first horizontal row of every table.
ϖ This variable show the help received after a particular natural disaster.

PAGE 9
W O R K I N G P A P E R S E R I E S N O . 2 0 1 4 - 1 1

child wage rates, it would be possible to see if they are consistent with such a pattern – but
unfortunately, we do not have such data. Other studies of similar-aged children in other developing
country contexts also have reported negative effects of drought on school enrollment (e.g., Alderman,
Hoddinott and Kinsey 2006; Glewwe, Jacoby and King 2000; Hoddinott and Kinsey 2001), but we are not
aware of other studies on the impacts of hailstorms/erosion4.
We find no significant effects of individual-reported shocks or of reported help received on
enrollment in school. A plausible explanation for the latter result is than any help received after droughts
is not sufficient or is not well-targeted (Webb and Reardon 1992 and Demombynes and Kiringai 2011).
Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test Scores (PPVT): Droughts and hailstorms/erosion have significantly
negative effects on PPVT scores, whether the shocks are reported by individuals or by community
informants. The negative sign for community-informant-reported hailstorms/erosion is in contrast to the
significantly positive effect of this variable on school enrollment. Taken together, these two coefficient
estimates suggest that due to reduction of work options children are more likely to enroll in school, but
nevertheless they learn less, perhaps because of other pressures on their time (e.g., home repairs) even if
labor markets are depressed. The coefficient estimate for individual-reported floods also is negative,
similar to those for droughts and hailstorms/erosion. But the coefficient estimates for community-
respondent-reported flood and livestock/crop disease shocks are both positive, suggesting that the price
effects of lessened labor market alternatives dominate so that learning increases due to more time
studying. Help received has a significant positive coefficient estimate for individual-reported crop/
livestock pest/disease shocks, consistent in this case with such help relieving the negative income impact
of the shocks. But help received has significant negative coefficient estimates for individual-reported
drought and hailstorm/erosion shocks. While it is possible that such help enabled the afflicted
households to reconstruct better their productivity activities and this put negative time pressure on the
adolescent children, this seems to be a somewhat convoluted explanation.

______________________________________________________________________________________________________
4
Further it is possible that the income effect leads to more child work without reducing school enrollment. For instance, Baez at
al (2007) report that the proportion of children simultaneously enrolled in school and working more than doubled, increasing
from 7.5% to 15.6%, due to Hurricane Mitch. We do not have information with which to explore such a possibility in the data that
we use.

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 A SM A H YD ER / JE R E R . B EH R M A N

Table 3. Different Climatic Shocks Shock and PPVT (Random Effects)

Hail- Crops/ Crop/Livestock_com
Drought Hail- storm_com Live-
Drought _Com Flood Flood_Com storms stock
Age (months) 5.67* 2.35 6.04* 7.14** 6.10** 7.67** 5.52* 6.23*
[2.617] [2.584] [2.607] [2.585] [2.619] [2.626] [2.612] [2.611]
Agesq -0.02* -0.01 -0.02* -0.02** -0.02** -0.02** -0.0169* -0.0190*
[0.008] [0.007] [0.007] [0.007] [0.008] [0.008] [0.008] [0.008]
Sex -3.66* -4.08* -3.9* -3.9* -4.3* -3.6 -3.9* -4.08*
[2.185] [2.155] [2.199] [2.210] [2.191] [2.212] [2.189] [2.188]
43.4**
Wi 42.5*** 49.5*** * 43.3*** 44.7*** 46.6*** 43.8*** 46.3***
[8.664] [8.475] [8.651] [8.677] [8.613] [8.672] [8.611] [8.625]
HHsize -0.58 -0.41 -0.52 -0.78 -0.64 -0.86 -0.78 -0.87
[0.536] [0.533] [0.541] [0.544] [0.535] [0.544] [0.535] [0.541]
Mother Edu-1 4.27 6.73** 3.31 2.78 3.43 2.34 3.22 2.82
[3.113] [3.095] [3.111] [3.126] [3.103] [3.128] [3.093] [3.101]
Mother Edu-2 3.665 5.0* 3.094 2.872 3.099 2.486 2.381 2.470
[2.842] [2.800] [2.835] [2.847] [2.834] [2.844] [2.815] [2.826]
Father Edu-1 4.613 3.483 5.084 6.16* 4.773 5.328 5.585 4.835
[3.432] [3.376] [3.447] [3.448] [3.448] [3.447] [3.430] [3.433]
Father Edu-2 4.01 3.37 4.09 5.13* 4.07 4.21 4.73 3.71
[3.011] [2.953] [3.022] [3.023] [3.028] [3.024] [3.016] [3.021]
Climatic Shock -6.82* -35.4*** -8.7** 10.7*** -7.73** -8.83*** 0.7 14.01***
[3.25] [4.84] [3.55] [2.63] [3.58] [2.59] [3.03] [4.09]
-
Help Recieved -30.1* -3.97 -27.47 0.89 -53.76* 2.03 46.36*** 3.15
[11.76] [2.456] [17.87] [2.416] [30.60] [2.443] [12.63] [2.505]
-
19.5**
Typesite-Rural -18.2*** -13.8*** * -19.8*** -19.0*** -17.5*** -21.3*** -21.0***
[3.58] [3.52] [3.48] [3.47] [3.53] [3.62] [3.55] [3.43]
Ln(pop) 8.2*** 8.99*** 8.6*** 6.54** 8.48*** 9.08*** 8.41*** 9.47***
[2.02] [2.0] [2.03] [2.09] [2.02] [2.07] [2.02] [2.07]
_cons -240.1 30.1 -272.7 -343.4* -276.0 -410.5* -227.1 -298.5
[212.1] [209.5] [211.2] [209.3] [212.3] [213.2] [211.8] [211.6]
N 833 833 833 833 833 833 833 833
Notes: See Notes of Table 4.

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 W O R K I N G P A P E R S E R I E S N O . 2 0 1 4 - 1 1

Mathematics test scores: The only significant shock coefficient is for community-informant-reported
hailstorms/erosion, which is negative as is the case for PPVT discussed above (but, as also discussed
above, is the opposite from the sign for school enrollment). For the individual-reported crop/livestock
pest/disease shock, help received has a significantly negative coefficient estimate – parallel to two cases
for PPVT mentioned above for which any explanation that we can come up with seems convoluted.
Table 4. Different Climatic Shocks Shock and Math Score (Random Effects)
Hail- Crops/ Crop/
storm_com Livestock Live-
Drought stock_co
Drought _Com Flood Flood_Com Hailstorms m
Age (months) 0.63 0.46 0.53 0.64 0.67 0.69 0.18 0.28
[2.067] [2.069] [2.075] [2.061] [2.073] [2.065] [2.067] [2.072]
Agesq -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001
[0.006] [0.006] [0.006] [0.006] [0.006] [0.006] [0.006] [0.006]
Sex -3.9* -4.03* -4.004* -4.03* -4.06* -3.84* -4.34* -4.04*
[2.04] [2.036] [2.034] [2.045] [2.029] [2.037] [2.035] [2.032]
Wi 32.5*** 34.1*** 34.01*** 32.6*** 33.6*** 34.4*** 33.9*** 34.4***
[8.053] [7.998] [7.977] [8.074] [7.972] [7.990] [7.963] [7.991]
HHsize -0.22 -0.29 -0.28 -0.32 -0.3 -0.35 -0.25 -0.31
[0.488] [0.491] [0.487] [0.491] [0.485] [0.490] [0.486] [0.489]
Mother Edu-1 4.65* 4.71* 4.67* 4.39 4.51 4.76* 4.32 4.99*
[2.858] [2.864] [2.856] [2.872] [2.851] [2.855] [2.854] [2.862]
Mother Edu-2 6.37** 6.47** 6.51** 6.36* 6.36* 7.07** 6.19* 6.8**
[2.490] [2.491] [2.492] [2.497] [2.487] [2.503] [2.486] [2.497]
Father Edu-1 10.1*** 10.3*** 10.3*** 10.4*** 10.2*** 10.3*** 10.1*** 10.07***
[3.015] [3.017] [3.013] [3.019] [3.010] [3.010] [3.007] [3.015]
Father Edu-2 6.85** 6.8** 6.87** 7.2** 6.85** 6.82** 6.82** 6.46*
[2.569] [2.578] [2.573] [2.577] [2.571] [2.566] [2.567] [2.585]
Climatic Shock -2.68 -0.85 -1.83 3.45 -4.62 -5.28** -0.97 3.72
[2.346] [2.485] [3.066] [2.444] [3.208] [2.343] [2.266] [2.494]
Help Recieved -6.56 0.23 3.65 0.49 18.72 0.14 -14.66* 0.45
[5.604] [1.918] [15.79] [1.923] [14.55] [1.914] [6.593] [1.921]
Typesite-Rural 0.201 -0.931 -0.896 -1.105 -0.541 -0.332 -0.497 -1.616
[3.490] [3.424] [3.389] [3.369] [3.395] [3.377] [3.436] [3.370]
Ln(pop) 3.717* 3.405* 3.46* 3.198 3.67* 3.8* 3.42* 3.45*
[1.957] [1.958] [1.942] [1.965] [1.946] [1.963] [1.937] [1.956]
_cons 210.9 226.2 220.6 214.9 206.9 203.4 249.4 239.4
[167.5] [167.4] [168.0] [166.7] [167.9] [167.3] [167.3] [167.7]
N 1522 1522 1522 1522 1522 1522 1522 1522
Notes: See Notes of Table 4.

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 A SM A H YD ER / JE R E R . B EH R M A N

Child Health and Nutritional Status

BMI z-scores: Individual-reported drought and hailstorms/erosion shocks are significantly negatively
associated with this indicator of short-run health and nutritional status, as is the community-informant-
reported crop/livestock pest/disease shock. However the community-informant-reported hailstorm/
erosion shock is significantly positively associated, which would seem to be the opposite from what
would be expected if there were a pure income effect. Perhaps this reflects associated temperature
cooling with this shock, that may induce increased short-run consumption and less infectious disease risk
so that there are short-run weight gains.
Table 5. Different Climatic Shocks Shock and BMI Z-Score (Random Effects)
Hail- Crops/ Crop/
storm_com Livestock Live-
Drought stock_co
Drought _Com Flood Flood_Com Hailstorms m
Age (months) -0.06 -0.07* -0.07 -0.07* -0.07 -0.08* -0.07* -0.06
[0.0439] [0.0439] [0.0439] [0.0440] [0.0439] [0.0437] [0.0439] [0.0438]
Agesq 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002* 0.0002 0.0002
[0.0001] [0.0001] [0.0001] [0.0001] [0.0001] [0.0001] [0.0001] [0.0001]
Sex 0.3*** 0.3*** 0.3*** 0.3*** 0.3*** 0.3*** 0.3*** 0.3***
[0.064] [0.064] [0.064] [0.064] [0.064] [0.064] [0.064] [0.064]
Wi 0.5* 0.58** 0.59** 0.59** 0.58** 0.59** 0.6** 0.59**
[0.22] [0.22] [0.22] [0.22] [0.22] [0.22] [0.22] [0.22]
HHsize 0.01 0.012 0.012 0.013 0.012 0.01 0.012 0.012
[0.014] [0.014] [0.014] [0.014] [0.014] [0.014] [0.014] [0.014]
Mother Edu-1 0.12* 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.12
[0.083] [0.083] [0.083] [0.083] [0.083] [0.083] [0.083] [0.083]
Mother Edu-2 0.23** 0.24*** 0.24*** 0.24*** 0.24*** 0.22** 0.23** 0.23**
[0.073] [0.073] [0.073] [0.073] [0.073] [0.073] [0.073] [0.073]
Father Edu-1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1
[0.08] [0.08] [0.08] [0.08] [0.08] [0.08] [0.08] [0.08]
Father Edu-2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1
[0.068] [0.068] [0.068] [0.068] [0.068] [0.067] [0.068] [0.068]
Climatic Shock -0.12* 0.07 -0.03 -0.03 -0.12* 0.16** -0.03 -0.14*
[0.055] [0.062] [0.068] [0.064] [0.073] [0.054] [0.054] [0.056]
Help Recieved 0.02 -0.03 -0.02 -0.03 0.1 -0.02 -0.2 -0.02
[0.122] [0.0432] [0.215] [0.0447] [0.229] [0.0426] [0.141] [0.0427]
Typesite-Rural -0.33*** -0.4*** -0.4*** -0.4*** -0.3*** -0.4*** -0.3*** -0.4***
[0.096] [0.096] [0.096] [0.096] [0.096] [0.096] [0.097] [0.096]
Ln(pop) -0.2** -0.2** -0.2** -0.16** -0.15** -0.18*** -0.16** -0.18***
[0.052] [0.053] [0.052] [0.052] [0.052] [0.052] [0.052] [0.052]
_cons 4.82 5.44 5.26 5.49 5.19 6.4* 5.63 4.79
[3.583] [3.580] [3.582] [3.589] [3.584] [3.576] [3.586] [3.574]
N 1836 1836 1836 1836 1836 1836 1836 1836
Notes: See Notes of Table 4.

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W O R K I N G P A P E R S E R I E S N O . 2 0 1 4 - 1 1

HFA z scores: Individual-reported and community-informant-reported drought and hailstorm/

erosion shocks are all significantly negatively associated with this measure of long-run nutritional status,
thus implying long-run negative effects on long-run health and nutritional status of climatic shocks in the
last four years during late childhood and early adolescence. Such results are consistent with some
previous literature. For example, Yamano et al. (2005) find, also for Ethiopia, that a 10 percent point
increase in the proportion of damaged crop areas corresponded to a reduction in child growth of 0.12 cm
over a six-month period. However, the association with the community-informant-reported flood shock
is positively significant, which is somewhat puzzling.

Table 6. Different Climatic Shocks Shock and HFA Z-Score (Random Effects)
Hail- Crops/ Crop/
storm_com Livestock Live-
Drought stock_co
Drought _Com Flood Flood_Com Hailstorms m
Age (months) -0.1*** -0.1*** -0.1*** -0.12** -0.1 -0.13** -0.14*** -0.14***
[0.04] [0.04] [0.04] [0.04] [0.04] [0.04] [0.04] [0.04]
0.0004**
Agesq 0.001** 0.001** 0.001*** 0.0003** 0.0002 0.0004** 0.0004*** *
[0.0001] [0.0001] [0.0001] [0.0001] [0.0001] [0.0001] [0.0001] [0.0001]
Sex 0.5*** 0.5*** 0.5*** 0.5*** 0.3*** 0.5*** 0.5*** 0.5***
[0.07] [0.07] [0.07] [0.07] [0.063] [0.07] [0.07] [0.07]
0.809**
Wi 0.809*** * 0.812*** 0.729** 0.579** 0.782*** 0.810*** 0.792***
[0.225] [0.225] [0.225] [0.225] [0.220] [0.225] [0.225] [0.225]
HHsize -0.001 -0.001 -0.002 -0.003 0.012 -0.001 -0.002 0.00001
[0.015] [0.015] [0.015] [0.015] [0.014] [0.014] [0.014] [0.015]
Mother Edu-1 -0.02 -0.02 -0.03 -0.05 0.13 -0.03 -0.03 -0.027
[0.091] [0.091] [0.091] [0.091] [0.08] [0.091] [0.091] [0.091]
Mother Edu-2 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.24*** 0.08 0.06 0.07
[0.076] [0.076] [0.077] [0.076] [0.073] [0.076] [0.076] [0.077]
Father Edu-1 0.13 0.13 0.14* 0.15* -0.11 0.15* 0.15* 0.14
[0.086] [0.086] [0.086] [0.086] [0.083] [0.086] [0.086] [0.086]
Father Edu-2 0.13* 0.13* 0.143* 0.15** -0.109 0.14** 0.145* 0.145*
[0.0681] [0.0681] [0.0683] [0.0679] [0.0682] [0.0680] [0.0682] [0.0681]
Climatic Shock -0.2** -0.2** -0.001 0.22*** -0.12* -0.11* 0.01 0.04
[0.061] [0.061] [0.065] [0.063] [0.073] [0.051] [0.051] [0.054]
Help Recieved -0.02 -0.02 -0.04 0.01 0.15 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03
[0.041] [0.041] [0.203] [0.042] [0.229] [0.04] [0.134] [0.04]
Typesite-Rural -0.15 -0.15 -0.15 -0.18* -0.35*** -0.15 -0.16 -0.17
[0.102] [0.102] [0.102] [0.102] [0.0963] [0.103] [0.103] [0.103]
Ln(pop) 0.052 0.052 0.085 0.056 -0.15** 0.09* 0.085 0.082
[0.053] [0.053] [0.052] [0.053] [0.052] [0.053] [0.052] [0.053]
_cons 7.9* 7.9* 8.0* 7.12* 5.19 7.34* 8.05* 8.2*
[3.278] [3.278] [3.280] [3.284] [3.584] [3.293] [3.282] [3.286]
N 1836 1836 1836 1836 1836 1836 1836 1836
Notes: See Notes of Table 4.

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 A SM A H YD ER / JE R E R . B EH R M A N

Conclusion
Poor households, particularly poor households in rural areas, are widely perceived as being quite
vulnerable to climatic shocks. In this paper we investigate the associations between such shocks and
adolescent human capital indicators in the very poor context of Ethiopia. We find evidence of significant
and in many cases substantial effects of individual and community-informant-reported shocks on some
basic indicators of learning and of health and nutritional status for adolescents. Most of these effects are
negative, but there are some cases in which they are positive, perhaps reflecting at least in a subset of
these cases the dominance of price over income effects.

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 W O R K I N G P A P E R S E R I E S N O . 2 0 1 4 - 1 1
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