Chap 6

Probability distributions: biểu diễn tất cả các kết quả có khả năng xảy ra kèm theo sác
xuất. Có thể ở dạng bảng hay đồ thị.
Ví dụ: tung 2 đồng xu
Bài tập: A supervisor in a manufacturing plant has three men and three women working
for him. He wants to choose two workers for a special job. Not wishing to show any
biases in his selection, he decides to select the two workers at random. Let Y denote the
number of women in his selection.
a) Find the probability distribution of Y
b) Compute Mean, Variance, Standard deviation of y

Random variable (Biến ngẫu nhiên) là một biến có giá trị không xác định hoặc một hàm
số gán giá trị cho từng kết quả của một thí nghiệm. Ví dụ: counting the number of
takeoffs in a given hour at O’Hare International Airport.
+ Discrete random variable (đếm được) (các biến có giá trị cụ thể), produce outcome
from counting. Ex: number of absences in a class of 40 students: 1 người, 3 người, không
thể nào mà 2.5 người
+ Continuous random variable (các biến có giá trị liên tục), produce outcome from
mearsurement. Ex: cân nặng 56.4 kg, nhiệt độ 32.3.

Binomial distribution (phân phối nhị thức) - Phân phối nhị thức là một dạng phân phối rời
rạc thường dùng trong thống kê, chỉ tính đến hai trường hợp, thường được thể hiện là 𝝅
(cho thành công) hoặc (1-𝝅 ) (cho thất bại) trong một số lượng lần thử.

Ví dụ: chọn kết hợp 3 loại kem trong 31

loại kem:
n=31, x=3

4495 sự kết
hợp
Calculating probability binomial distribution

Bài tập: Three percent of the letters placed in a certain postal drop box have incorrect
postage. Suppose 200 letters are mailed.
(a) For this binomial, what is the expected number with incorrect postage? (6)
(b) For this binomial, what is the standard deviation? (2,412)
Poisson distribution: Các biến chỉ có thể nhận các giá trị cụ thể trong một danh sách các số
nhất định, có thể là vô hạn (nói đơn giản thì đếm số lần một sự kiện xảy ra trong một khoảng thời
gian cố định)

Bài tập:
1. Arrivals of customers at a restaurant have a Poisson distribution with an average of seven per
hour. Let Y be the number of customers arriving per hour.
a) What is the expected value and the variance of Y?
b) Find the probability that no more than three customers arrive?
c) Find the probability that exactly five customers arrive?
d) What is the probability that exactly two customers arrive in the two-hour period of time
between a 1:00 P.M. and 3:00 P.M ?
2. In a certain Kentucky Fried Chicken franchise, half of the customers typically request“crispy”
instead of “original.” (using binomial)
(a) What is the probability that none of the next four customers will request “crispy”? (0.0625)
(b) At least two? (0.6875)
(c) At most two?
 Chap 7
Normal distribution

Ví dụ
Hướng dẫn làm bài:
Bài tập:
Note:
±0.5 𝑖𝑠 𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑢𝑖𝑡𝑦
correction (hiệu chỉnh liên
tục)
Bài tập:

Exponential probability distribution

Chap 8
Sampling error is the difference between an estimate and the corresponding population
parameter

Ví dụ: Each week Lloyd’s Department Store selects a simple random sample of 100
customers in order to learn about the amount spent per shopping trip. With x representing the
amount spent per shopping trip, the sample mean provides a point estimate of μ, the mean
amount spent per shopping trip for the population of all Lloyd’s customers. Lloyd’ s has been
using the weekly survey for several years. Based on the historical data, Lloyd’s now assumes a
known value of σ = $20 for the population standard deviation. The historical data also indicate
that the population follows a normal distribution. During the most recent week, Lloyd’s surveyed
100 customers (n = 100) and obtained a sample mean of $82. The sample mean amount spent
provides a point estimate of the population mean amount spent per shopping trip, μ. Construct a
95% confidence interval and 90% confidence interval for the Lloyd’s (trường hợp 1)
Với 95% confidence interval, confidence coefficient is (1 - α) = 0.95 -> α = 0.05 -> α/2 = 0.025
Tra bảng 𝑍𝛼/2 = 1.96
Sample mean = 82, standard deviation = 20
-> Interval estimate:
tương tự với 90% CI [78.71; 85.29]
Example 2: To aid in planning the development of a tourist shopping area, a state agency wants
to estimate the average dollar amount spent by a tourist in an existing shopping area. A random
sample of 56 tourists give Mean = $258 and s = $85. Give a 95% confidence interval for the
average amount spent by a tourist at the shopping area.
(sample lớn hơn 30, có sample standard deviation = 5.9 trường hợp 3.)
𝑍𝛼/2 = 1.96 Interval estimate:

Example 3: The manufacturer of batteries used in small electric appliances wants to estimate the
average life of a battery. A random sample of 12 batteries yields x = 34.2 hours and s = 5.9
hours. Give a 95% confidence interval for the average life of a battery.
(sample nhỏ hơn 30, có sample standard deviation = 5.9 sử dụng t distribution, trường hợp 2)
Df= n-1 = 12-11 = 11
(1 - α) = 0.95 -> α = 0.05 -> α/2 = 0.025
Tra bảng t với df = 11, 𝑇𝛼/2 = 0.025
=> Với 95% confidence interval, interval estimate:
= [30.45; 37.95]
Bài tập
The 92 million Americans of age 50 and over control 50 percent of all discretionary income.
AARP estimates that the average annual expenditure on restaurants and carryout food was $1873
for individuals in this age group. Suppose this estimate is based on a sample of 80 persons and
that the sample standard deviation is $550.
a. At 95% confidence, what is the margin of error?
b. What is the 95% confidence interval for the population mean amount spent on restaurants and
carryout food?
c. What is your estimate of the total amount spent by Americans of age 50 and over on
restaurants and carryout food?

Chap 9
Null hypothesis: H0, contain

Alternative hypothesis: H1,

Ví dụ:
Ví dụ: ( 2 tail test)

 Critical value
 P- value
Ví dụ: (2 tail test)

 Critical value
 P-value
Bài tập:
In a study entitled How Undergraduate Students Use Credit Cards, it was reported that
undergraduate students have a mean credit card balance of $3173. This figure was an all-time
high and had increased 44% over the previous five years. Assume that a current study is being
conducted to determine if it can be concluded that the mean credit card balance for
undergraduate students has continued to increase compared to the original report. Based on
previous studies, use a population standard deviation 𝜎 = $1000.
a. State the null and alternative hypotheses.
b. Suppose there is a sample of 180 undergraduate students with a sample mean credit card
balance of $3325. Compute the test statistic.
c. Using a .05 level of significance, what is your conclusion?