CO2 Sciences-Lux Research-Global Roadmap Study of CCU Technologies Release 2018

Global Roadmap Study of CO2U
Technologies
Distributed by the Global CO2 Initiative at the University of Michigan, November 2018
http://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/146529
DOI: 10.3998/2027.42/146529
Oct 20, 2016

Contents (1 of 2)
Executive summary
Methodology
Why CO2U?
State of CO2U
Markets
Selection 4 markets with the most potential
State of technology
Progress of the 4 markets during the last 5 years
Research
Visualization of the progress markets
Road maps for the market segments
Methodology
Drivers
Conversion technology
Timelines for market penetration
Visualization roadmap
Barriers and risks
Scenarios to mitigate barriers
2
Contents (2 of 2)
Case studies on strategies to mitigate barriers or incentivize CO2U technology

Policy
Technology
market
Recommendations and conclusions
Profiles of companies of interest
Appendix
Methodology
Potential of carbon fiber from CO2
Case study on the rise and fall of algae
Detailed description of scenarios
Profiles of corporations that have developed CO2U technology
Summary of interviews
3
Executive summary Potential Annual
2020 2025 2030
$150B–$400B
Revenue (dollars)
$50B–$200B
Strategic actions implemented
Without strategic actions $10B–$60B
Global warming due to carbon dioxide emissions is the grand Concrete

challenge of our time. Carbon capture and utilization (CO2U)
technologies have the potential to significantly lower CO2
emissions. $10B–$250B
This study analyzed the current state of CO2U technology: $4.5B–$60B
$1B–$5B
Four major market opportunities in fuel, building Fuels
materials, chemical intermediates and polymers were

found
$15B–$150B
Almost 180 technology developers were analyzed to $6B–$30B

$0.3B–$4B
assess technology feasibility, readiness, and momentum Aggregates
Lessons learnt were show-cased as case studies for policy,

technology and market development $2B–$25B
$0.1B–$0.6B $0.4B–$2.5B
Based on the cumulative analysis, a roadmap that depicts specific Polymers
strategic actions that can be taken and their expected impact on $0.1B–$0.2B $0.2B–$5B $1B–$12B
accelerating implementation of CO2U technologies was created Methanol
We conclude that the following strategic actions will help grow the CO2U market size to $700B by 2030:
Policy: Implement global carbon tax, increase mandates for renewable products and fuels and/or incentivize
reduction of CO2 emissions by fuel, chemical, materials and building materials producers
Technology: Fund research to improve catalysis for CO2 reduction and to improve electrolysis to produce H2
Market: Funding for collaborations between research institutes, start-ups, governments and corporations for process
integration of CO2 conversion, H2 generation, and carbon capture
4
Contents
Executive summary
CO2 Sciences goals
Methodology
Why CO2U?
State of CO2U
Appendix
5
3 step research plan to develop the path forward for
CO2 Sciences
Module 1: Global CO2U Module 2: Opportunity Module 3: Roadmapping and
Landscape Update Assessment Investment Recommendations
Module 1: Global CO2U landscape update

Validated CO2 Sciences’ view on the top 4 markets through targeted secondary and primary research
Prioritized the top 4 market opportunities
Module 2: Opportunity assessment

Segmented each of the top 4 markets into top 2-3 sub-segments by technology platform
Described market drivers, barriers and risks for each segment
Provided a high-level, order-of-magnitude market size for further prioritization
Module 3: Roadmapping and investment recommendations

Estimated and compared timelines for commercialization
Laid out CO2 Sciences’ potential strategic actions
A detailed description of the methodology is given in the Appendix 6

Contents
Executive summary
CO2 Sciences goals
Methodology
Why CO2U ?
State of CO2U
Appendix
7
CO2U workflow; utilization is the bottleneck and the
point of greatest potential return on investment
Separation /Capture
technologies
CO2 processing
and
transportation
Utilization technologies
by CO2 conversion
8
Capture, store, utilize; finding effective utilization
technologies unlocks transformation
CO2 mitigation: reduction in the amount of emitted CO2. In the industrial end-of-pipe context, this
includes capture (+concentration and transportation, where appropriate) + (storage OR utilization)
CO2 capture technologies: technologies which collect or selectively extract/separate CO2 from flue or
exhaust gas streams or directly from the air (e.g. carbon fixation in plants).
CO2 utilization (CO2U) technologies: technologies which use CO2 (pure or as emitted) for revenue
generation, either by using it unchanged (EOR, carbonated drinks, supercritical CO2 solvent, etc.) or by
converting it into a value-added end product like a fuel or a chemical.
Recently, conversion of CO2 is receiving attention by technology developers and policy-makers resulting in
opportunities for new initiatives and collaborations, new research and new pilot projects.
Development of CO2U technology is being promoted for three key reasons:

CO2U technology can be used for CO2 mitigation to meet internal or external standards for CO2 emissions for
CO2 emitters
CO2U technology would allow for CO2 to be used as an alternative to fossil-fuel derived feedstocks
CO2U technology can contribute to achieving national or global aims for decreasing carbon emissions
9
Contents
Executive summary
Methodology
Why CO2U?
State of CO2U
Markets
State of technology
Appendix
10
A review of CO2U technologies shows 178
developers globally
178 global developers (start-ups, mid-sized companies, corporations, consortiums and research institutes)
of CO2U technologies
Lux categorized each by conversion technology and targeted end products in order to create clusters by
which competing technologies and business models can be analyzed and compared.
This approach also identified six distinct end markets; of which Lux prioritized the top 4 markets with the
highest potential for CO2 Sciences to consider.
We have included developers of carbon capture, capture of CO2 from sources included waste streams and
air without a focus on conversion. These developers mention CO2U as an application of their carbon
capture technology. These developers are listed in the database, but are not further analyzed as part of this
project. 11
The majority of developers focus on chemical
intermediates, fuels and building materials
Lux has categorized the different markets for CO2U

technology:
Algae, processed separately to fuels or food additives
Fuel, mainly liquid fuel, methane and ethanol
Chemical Intermediate, examples are methanol, syngas

malic acid and formic acid
Polymer, examples include polycarbonates, polyurethane

and PHA
Number of developers per type of product
Building material, conversion to carbonates or infusion of
Some developers serve more than 1 market leading
CO2 into building materials
to a total number of markets higher than number of
developers, we have excluded carbon capture in the
chart
12
Ranking developers by technology readiness reveals
maturity and momentum in specific target markets
Building
materials
Chemical
intermediates
Polymers
Fuels
Algae
Novel materials
for utilization
Stage of Development (TRL)
1 3 5 7 9 >9
13
Example companies from database to illustrate range of commercial readiness
Developers of CO2U technology by market
Building Chemical
materials intermediates
Fuels Polymers
14
Key characteristics of the six markets (1 of 2)
Building materials
Thermodynamically easy to make carbonates, less energy necessary.
This makes this market attractive for developers as the technology is
more readily scalable.
The main two CO2U technologies used in this market are mineralization
to carbonate aggregates and the use of CO2 to cure concrete . Key
innovators include Solidia Technologies and CarbonCure.
Chemical Intermediates
Many research projects to make conversions more efficient, e.g. by
developing more efficient catalysts.
Niche markets have been commercialized, e.g. production of methanol
using geothermal energy in Iceland.
Methanol, syngas and formic acid are the most widely being developed.
Note that some developers categorize these chemicals under fuels.
Fuels
Production of fuels from CO2 fits within the large macro trend to produce
bio-based fuels. CO2 competes with petroleum-derived feedstock as well
as bio-based feedstocks such as sugar cane.
Fuels is often mentioned as the largest potential market for CO2U
technology in reports on CO2U.
15
Key characteristics of the six markets (2 of 2)
Polymers
Several production routes have already been commercialized for high
value products for niche markets, such as polyhydroxyalkanoates and
polycarbonates.
Some key developers include Covestro, Novomer, and Asahi Kasei.
Algae
Technology to grow algae for bio-fuels and chemicals was hyped 3-5
years ago. Growing algae through this technology has not yet proven
to be cost-effective due to high downstream processing costs.
Many developers have gone out of business during the last 5 years.
• Examples include Abengoa, Independence Bio Products, and
A2BE Carbon Capture.
Novel materials
Most areas of development for novel materials, such as conversion of
CO2 to carbon fibers, are conducted by one or few research groups
and remain very early stage.
16
Contents
Executive summary
Methodology
Why CO2U?
State of CO2U
Markets
State of technology
Appendix
17
Lux has selected which markets offer the best
opportunities for support and investment
Lux has based this assessment on the analysis of developers, interviews, in-house
expertise and scientific momentum 18
Contents
Executive summary
Methodology
Why CO2U?
State of CO2U
Markets
State of technology
Appendix
19
Time to commercialization for the 4 markets
depends heavily on developer densities
Wide range of conversion processes exist of which

catalytic conversion, mineralization and electrochemical
conversion are the most widely studied based on number
density of developers
Development of catalysts is a prime research area to

make the conversion processes more efficient; this
research builds upon decades of work in catalysis in
general
Some conversion processes focus directly on using

sunlight as a low cost energy source for conversion
(photocatalytic, photosynthesis, algae production)
Number density of conversion processes

Mineralization, thermo-catalytic conversion, and
electrochemical have the highest density of developers
and researchers, which we believe will help propel these Some developers serve more than 1 market
technologies forward. leading to a total number of markets higher
than number of developers, we have excluded
carbon capture in the chart
20
Ranking technologies by TRL illustrates the gap
between leaders and followers
Mineralization
Fermentation
Photosynthetic
Thermo-catalytic
Electrochemical
Photocatalytic
Stage of Development (TRL)

1 3 5 7 9 >9
21
Example companies from database to illustrate range of commercial readiness
Catalytic conversion and mineralization lead all
other technologies in achieving scale
Catalytic conversion technology and mineralization are the

most well developed technologies.
Mineralization of CO2 is the only CO2U technology used
for the building market
Catalytic conversion of CO2 is widely used for production
of chemical intermediates, fuels, and polymers
Fermentation for CO2 conversion is less well established. Two Source: ICIQ
companies that are at scale, LanzaTech and Newlight
Technologies, use CO and methane as the main carbon sources
for their processes, respectively.
Photocatalytic and electrochemical conversion technologies

require more development and evidence of scalability.
Note that consortiums and collaborations have been founded

to fully utilize the impact of CO2U technology on CO2
mitigation as discussed in more detail in the Case Study
section. Source: Cornell University
22
Contents
Executive summary
Methodology
Why CO2U?
State of CO2U
Research
Appendix
23
The number of developers between Europe and North
America is comparable with slight differences in
market focus
Market Number of % TRL 5 or lower Number of % TRL 5 or lower
developers in EU developers in
North America
Building materials 6 50% 10 60%
Chemical 18 77% 25 92%

intermediates
Fuels 7 86% 10 70%
Polymers 9 67% 4 25%
Total 37 73% 48 75%
Most developments in CO2U technology are early stage (equal or lower than TRL 5) with approximately 85
key active developers in Europe and North America.
For both continents, a key area of research is in chemical intermediates focusing on CO2 conversion to
methanol, CO, syngas or formic acid.
Developers in building materials are especially strong in North America, whereas Europe is stronger in CO2
conversion to polymers. The latter is partially caused by the culture of collaboration in the EU.
24
Publications on the conversion of CO2 by
catalytic reduction has increased significantly
Top 10 institutes
Institute Number of Number of publications on Catalysis for CO2
publications reduction
US Department of Energy (DoE) 136 800
Chinese Academy of Sciences 79

600
Japan Science Technology Agency 63
Centre National de la Recherche 400
63
Scientifique
University of California San Diego 55 200
Tokyo Institute of Technology 52

0
Princeton University 47
14
10
12
13
15
11
05
06
09
08
07
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
University of California Berkeley 38
Search on Web of Science using search string:
California Institute of Technology 38 TS=(((CO2 NEAR/2 reduct*) OR ((carbon ADJ dioxide)
NEAR/2 reduct*)) AND (*cataly*))
Time Span: 2005-2015
Is this translating to increased commercialization?

25
Contents
Executive summary
Methodology
Why CO2U?
State of CO2U
Research
Appendix
26
Lux has analyzed the progress that companies have
made in CO2U from 2011 to 2016 Example: Lux innovation grid 2011
High potential Ahead of the pack
Weighting for visualization:
Technology Score
Y-axis - Technology score:20% IP strength, 10% Regulatory
factors, 30% competitive landscape score, 40% Technology
value
X-axis - Commercial Development Score: 60% Technology
maturity, 25% Developer maturity, 15% Commercial maturity Long-shot Undistinguished
Bubble size - CO2 mitigation potential: 30% ease of set-up, Commercial development score
50% market size, 20% extent that CO2 is used as feedstock
Example: Lux innovation grid 2016
Lux compared the status of the developers in 2011 and 2016. High potential Ahead of the pack
We color coded the developers in the graph for 2011 based
on situation in 2016
Technology Score
Active
Pivot
Discontinued
Idle or unknown Long-shot Undistinguished
The color in the 2016 graph notes the market segment Commercial development score
27
Building materials: Progress during the last 5 years
has been significant, immediate opportunities
2011 2016
5 5
High potential Ahead of the pack High potential Ahead of the pack
CarbonCure
Technologies
Novacem Alcoa Calera Solidia
Calera Technologies
Technology Score
Technology score
CO2 Upcycling Terra CO2 Calix Limited

Calix Limited
Carbon Sense Technologies
Solutions New Sky Energy
Solidia
Technologies Carbon8
3 3
CarbonCure New Sky Energy Blue Planet Aggregates
Innovation
Technologies Control Alt
Concepts
Delete Climate Recoval Belgium
CO2 Solutions Carbstone
Change
Innovation
Cambridge
Carbon Capture Carbicrete Mineral
Carbonation
Wells Products International
The C2B Project
Group
Long-shot Undistinguished Long-shot Undistinguished
1 1
1 3 5 1 3 5
Commercial Development Score Commercial Development Score
Status in 2016 Active
Concrete curing
Pivot
Carbonates
Discontinued
Idle or unknown 28
Curing of concrete by CO2 is an immediate
opportunity
Concentration of developers: High number of developers are near commercialization; whereas we

have observed a relatively low number of early stage developers
The success of commercialization for building materials is linked to:
• The relatively low amount of energy required for carbonation
• Concrete made by curing with CO2 has better performance characteristics than traditional
curing methods
Dynamics: Several developers have moved from pilot to commercialization stage from 2011 to 2016
for both market segments
Note that several early stage developers disappeared as they were not able to develop a
product beyond pilot stage
We have found several new developers of mineralization to produce aggregates
Building materials can have a significant impact on CO2 emissions with additional
allocated resources 29
Chemical intermediates: Limited progress due to
lack of incentives and economic feasibility
2011 2016
5 5
Carbon Mitsui
GoNano Electrocatalytic Chemicals
Mitsui Chemical Recycling Dioxide
Novus Energy Toronto Materials
Liquid Light Mantra Energy Opus 12 NCF Carbon
Technology Score
Technology score
Oakbio Recycling
Carbon Vito
Recycling International
3 3 Photanol
Dioxide International Haldor Topsoe
Materials Ceramatec Bioamber
Haldor Topsoe
C4X Mantra Energy
Bioamber
Ceramatec Antecy
SINTEF Hago Energetics
Easel Ingenuity Lab Succinity
Cambridge
RES Kaidi
Carbon Capture
BSE
Long-shot Undistinguished Long-shot Engineering Undistinguished
1 1
1 3 5 1 3 5
Pivot
Discontinued
Idle or unknown 30
Chemical intermediates that can also be used as
fuels offer the best opportunity
Concentration: Low number of developers near commercialization; high number of early stage
developers
The highest number developers for three market segments: CO (syngas), methanol, and formic acid
• The reduction reactions involved for these three are less complicated than others
• These chemicals can be used as intermediates, but also as fuels or precursors to fuels
• Fuels from CO2 have been incentivized/funded by governments to lower carbon emissions, this
has not been the case for chemicals
Dynamics: Very few developers moved from pilot to commercialization stage for all market
segments
The number of start-ups has increased dramatically investigating solutions for energy efficient
conversions of CO2
• Most start-ups tend to focus on the catalysis and conversions by reduction as there is an unmet
need for conversion that require low energy
The methanol, syngas and formic acid market segments are shown separately in the
following pages 31
Methanol: Limited number of developers, but high
potential
2011 2016
5 5
Carbon
Recycling
Mitsui Chemical International
Carbon
Recycling
Technology score
Technology score
International Mitsui Chemical
3 3
Innosense LLC
Antecy Catalytic
C4X
Innovations
Antecy
Breathe
BSE Engineering

1 1
1 3 5 1 3 5
Pivot
Discontinued
Idle or unknown 32
Development of syngas and formic acid from CO2 is
more early stage
5
2011 2016
5
Dioxide
GoNano CO2ElectroRefinery
Materials
Liquid Light Novus Energy Carbon NCF
Dioxide
Technology Score
Technology Score
Electrocatalytic Haldor Topsoe
Materials Recycling Opus 12
Mantra Energy Novus Energy
Toronto Dimensional
3 3 Energy
Haldor Topsoe American green Ceramatec
Ceramatec
gasoline
Mantra Energy
Sustainable
Alternatives
Innovations
Innovator
Energy Hago Energetics
Carbon
Sequestration
1 1
1 3 5 1 3 5
Pivot
Discontinued
Idle or unknown 33
Chemical intermediates have potential, efforts are
in developing reduction of CO2 at low-energy usage
Concentration of developers:
Methanol: Few developers are investigating methanol currently. Two companies (CRI and Mitsui) have
commercialized methanol production using CO2U technology.
Syngas and formic acid: Many early stage developers exist, the main focus is on the catalysis for
reduction of CO2.
Dynamics: Very few developers moved from pilot to commercialization stage for all three market
segments
Several startups have been formed for the three markets indicating momentum for growth
Many startups are developing technologies to be able to produce a variety of chemicals
The focus of most developers of syngas from CO2 is on using excess energy to produce syngas that
can be converted to a different product by another process
The high number of new startups shows that chemical intermediates offer long-term
opportunities 34
Polymers: Limited number of corporations investing
in CO2 mitigation due to lack of incentives
2011 2016
5 5
Oakbio
Novomer Asahi Kasei Newlight
Technologies
Covestro
Covestro
Technology score
Technology score
Newlight Oakbio Novomer
Technologies Empower Vito
Materials Asahi Kasei
3 3
Jiangsu
Zhongke Econic
CleanCarbon Jiangsu
Norner Technologies
Econic Jinlong-cas Energy Zhongke
Technologies Chemical Corporation Jinlong-cas
Empower
Chemical
Materials
China National Norner
Offshore Oil
Corporation

1 1
1 3 5 1 3 5
Commercial Development Score Commercial development score

Pivot
Discontinued
Idle or unknown 35
Polymers from CO2 has been shown to be possible,
but is currently not economical
Concentration of developers: 5 developers are near commercialization; few early stage developers
Several companies have shown that polymers from CO2 can be produced in scale
• Most companies have focused on polycarbonates and polyols (polyols are used to produce
polyurethane). This allows for replacing technology that uses dangerous phosgene gas.
Some developers are corporations (Covestro and Asahi Kasei) that have used know-how in catalysis to
develop commercial pilot plants for polymers from CO2
• The production capacity is a fraction (<1%) as compared to polymers from conventional
feedstocks
Dynamics: Developers are successful to move from lab and pilot to commercialization stage.
However, very few new initiatives showing that follow-up projects from the developers and competing
companies is relatively low
This is most likely due to the relatively high cost of polymers made from CO2
The lack of new startups shows that it is unlikely that new routes using CO2 to produce
polymers will be commercialized without additional incentives 36
Methane: Progress has been significant in Europe
during the last 5 years due to funding of projects
2011 2016
5 5
Electrochaea
ETOGAS
Technology Score
ETOGAS
Technology Score
3 3
NextPotential Krajete Audi
Krajete Electrochaea
Daiki Ataka
Engineering
Trelys

1 1
1 3 5 1 3 5
Pivot
Discontinued
Idle or unknown 37
Methane from CO2 is limited to a handful of
developers
Concentration of developers: Several developers are near commercialization
Although the processes have been shown to be made at scale, it remains to be seen if the processes are
cost-effective without funding
Dynamics: Development has been relatively fast for this market as compared to the others due to
funding and collaborations in Europe
Stage of development went from pilot testing in the lab in 2011 to pilot testing at commercial scale in
2016
Focus of collaborations is on integrating CO2 capture, renewable energy supply, hydrogen generation
and CO2 conversion into gaseous or liquid fuels
Europe is leading as it has set targets to create a low carbon-emission mobility economy
Projects often focus on the use of overcapacity of electricity or excess heat from industrial plants
Although progress made during the last 5 years, a significant hurdle is the low price of
competing natural gas 38
Liquid fuels: Several developers have made
significant steps toward commercialization
2011 2016
5 5
Carbon LanzaTech
Recycling
Mitsui Chemical International
Carbon Sciences
LanzaTech
Photanol Sunfire
SOLAR-JET
Technology Score
Technology Score
Carbon Mitsui Chemical
Joule Unlimited Sunfire Recycling Innosense LLC
3 International 3 CleanCarbon
Algenol Biotech Energy
Corporation Catalytic Joule Unlimited
Photanol Innovations
DEUTZ AG C4X
Antecy Antecy
Pioneer Energy
Breathe
CO2toMethanol
Long-shot Undistinguished Long-shot BSE Engineering Undistinguished

1 1
1 3 5 1 3 5
Pivot
Discontinued
Idle or unknown 39
Power to gas or liquid fuel is still at the early stages
in terms of being economical
Concentration of developers: Four developers are near commercialization or have commercialized
CO2U; Lanzatech is able to produce in scale
Note that LanzaTech converts CO into ethanol, hence the low impact on CO2 mitigation score
Methanol from CO2 is closest to production in scale
Dynamics: Development has been relatively fast for this market due to available funding for projects
and mandates set by government for renewable fuels.
Stage of development went from pilot testing in the lab in 2011 to pilot testing at commercial scale in
2016
The focus of developments has been on integrating CO2 capture, renewable energy supply, hydrogen
generation and CO2 conversion in the case of methanol and on efficient (multi-step) conversion of CO2
into fuels in the case of other liquid fuels.
Note that Europe is leading as it has set targets to create a low carbon-emission mobility economy
The significant progress made during the last 5 years shows that the technology is
available to be developed to produce at scale 40
Contents
Executive summary
Methodology
Why CO2U?
State of CO2U
Methodology
Drivers
Barriers and risks
Appendix
41
Lux’s research methodology for assessing
addressable market size for CO2U
Estimation market size in Analysis of Lux Research in-house knowledge and secondary
information from annual reports, market reports, and
2015
publications.
Triangulation and vetting of numbers from different sources
Analysis of Lux Research in-house knowledge and secondary

CAGR of total market to
2030 publications.
Analysis of drivers and constraints
Market penetration rate of Estimation of market penetration based on 3 scenarios. Every

scenario has different timelines for mitigating barriers and
CO2U products driving market penetration.
Estimation of the captured market size based on the overall

Captured market size by era market size in 2015, CAGR of the total incumbent market and
market penetration for the three scenarios.
42
Lux has estimated the market size of the incumbent
total market in 2015
Market Market size 2015 Sources Comments
Concrete 20-30 B metric tonnes Lafarge, Based off market size for cement assuming 12.5%
WorldCement,Portland of concrete is cement. Lux assumed curing of
Cement Assoc. concrete constitutes 10% of value concrete.
Aggregates 25-35 B metric tonnes LaFarge, Cemex Based off concrete, asphalt and construction fill
market size
Methanol 60-70 M metric tonnes IHS, Methanex None
Formic acid 0.5-0.7 M metric tonnes Perez-Fortes et al 2016, None

Trantech Consultants
Syngas 130-150 GW thermal M&M, Business Wire, PR Difficult to estimate as syngas is used as an
Newswire intermediate at the same plant as production, as
such producers of syngas do not report output
Polymers 8-10 M metric tonnes Lux Research, Covestro Market size is for polyols and polycarbonates only
Methane 3,000-4,000 B m3 IEA None
Liquid fuels 800-1,000 B gallons Lukoil, U.S. EIA None
43
Lux has estimated the timing of market penetration
of products produced by CO2U
The CAGR of the total incumbent market has Total incumbent market
been estimated based on adjacency to GDP 6
Best case replacement by CO2U
growth
Optimistic replacement by CO2U
CO2U is assumed to replace the incumbent
market, but does not accelerate the overall market Pessimistic replacement by CO2U
4
Market size
The timing and the extent of market penetration
of products made by CO2U can be accelerated by
strategic actions
2
Three scenarios have been generated for the
different market segments:
Pessimistic: Status quo
0
Optimistic: Strategic actions are taken to mitigate 2015 2020 2025 2030
barriers
Best case: Strategic actions lead to removal of
Best case start Optimistic start Pessimistic start
barriers at the earliest possibility
market penetration market penetration market penetration
of CO2U of CO2U of CO2U
The scenarios and necessary strategic actions are
described in the Appendix
44
Timelines for the products from CO2U to
penetrate the market were analyzed based
on the scenarios
Barrier Scenario 2015 2020 2025 2030

Technology Pessimistic
Optimistic
Best case
Policy Pessimistic
Optimistic
Best case
market Pessimistic
Optimistic
Best case
Policy Barrier: Description Barrier has not been mitigated to the extent that CO2U-based
products enter the mainstream market
Technology Barrier: Description
Barrier has been mitigated to the extent that CO2U-
Market Barrier: Description based products can enter the mainstream market
The scenarios and necessary strategic actions are described in the Appendix 45
The scenarios allow for estimation of timelines for
significant market penetration
Market Market Market Market Market Main assumption for barrier
introduction penetration penetration penetration
(Pessimistic) (Optimistic) (Best case)
Concrete 2014 pre-2020 pre-2020 pre-2020 No technology barriers
Aggregates 2012 pre-2030 pre-2030 pre-2025 Low cost product that requires cost-competitive CO2U
Methanol 2011 pre-2030 pre-2025 pre-2020 Integration of carbon capture, CO2 conversion and
hydrogen supply at scale
Formic acid post-2016 post-2030 pre-2030 pre-2025 Research in CO2U technology to form formic acid is
lagging
Syngas post-2016 pre-2030 pre-2025 pre-2025 Integration of carbon capture, CO2 conversion and
Polymers 2002 pre-2030 pre-2025 pre-2025 Access to low-cost CO2
Methane 2013 post-2030 post-2030 post-2030 Low cost product that requires cost-competitive CO2U
Liquid fuels post-2016 post-2030 pre-2030 pre-2025 Integration of carbon capture, CO2 conversion and
The markets are listed in order of initial market penetration of products made by CO2U as estimated by Lux Research
Market introduction is defined as the first time production in scale occurred by CO2U. Note that introduction of
polymers is early due to development of polycarbonates from CO2 in 2002 by Asahi Kasei. Other developments for
polymers from CO2 are in the 2012-2016 time-frame.
Threshold for time of penetration is achieving more than 2% market share; at this point we believe enough momentum
has occurred to drive adoption of technology
The scenarios and necessary strategic actions are described in the Appendix
46
The scenarios were used to estimate the market
penetration rates of products made by CO2U
Market CAGR overall Penetration rate Penetration rate Penetration rate
market (%) (pessimistic) (optimistic) (best case)
Concrete 3.5 50% 55% 140%
Aggregates 3.5 35% 50% 50%

2015-2020
Methanol 8 30% 50% 85%
Formic acid 3.5 25% 50% 85%

2015-2025
Syngas 8 40% 70% 50%
Polymers 3.5 15% 30% 50%

2020-2030
Methane 1.5 40% 55% 60%
Liquid fuels 1.5 35% 45% 95%
The overall market is the total incumbent market

The penetration rate is defined as the annual growth rate of replacement CO2-derived products of this market
Note that the market penetration of CO2U products for all markets is lower than 0.1% in 2015 based on
current production capacity of developers using CO2U
47
Lux has analyzed the addressable market size for
three different scenarios
Below is an example of how the market penetration will be presented for the market segments:
Example: Addressable market size
40
Pessimistic
Production (M metric tonnes / Optimistic
30 Best case
20
year)
10
0
2015 2020 2025 2030
Analysis of the market penetration for three scenarios

Optimistic: Strategic actions are taken to mitigate barriers
Best case: Strategic actions lead to removal of barriers at the earliest possibility
Market sizes in USD were estimated for the top 5 market segments in terms of size to build a roadmap
48
Contents
Executive summary
Methodology
Why CO2U ?
State of CO2U
Methodology
Drivers
Barriers and risks
Appendix
49
Overall market drivers supporting and constraints
inhibiting commercial deployment CO2U technology
Drivers applicable to most markets

The reduction of CO2 emission as set in the Paris agreement, COP21, which is now ratified by more than 62
countries. The Paris Agreement will come into force in November 2016.
The drive toward carbon neutral economy and less dependency on oil, this sentiment is especially strong in Europe
and China.
CCS competes with CO2U as a solution for CO2 mitigation. Note there is a move away from CCS in Europe due to
negative reputation of CCS.
For this reason CO2U is called CO2 transformation, CO2 usage, or CO2 re-use by policy makers and developers
in Europe.
Another driver is the success in commercializing CO2U technology during the last 5 years.
Constraints applicable to most markets

A barrier is the lack of access to facilities to scale up CO2U technologies.
CO2U has to compete with conventional feedstock and bio-based feedstocks. These options are often lower in cost.
Another barrier is the lack of access to feedstocks. This is the case for hydrogen, CO2, and renewable energy.
In general, regulations for CO2 mitigation are lacking. Although carbon tax exist in several countries, a global carbon
tax would be more effective in driving adoption of CO2U.
50
Concrete
Lux Research Inc. 234 Congress Street Boston, MA 02110 USA Phone: +1 617 502 5300 Fax: +1 617 502 5301 www.luxresearchinc.com
Concrete
Market drivers: Curing of concrete using CO2 offers
increase in performance and CO2 abatement
Market
Current concrete curing processes use heat and steam
• Curing of concrete by CO2 injection, add-on to current
processes
Curing of concrete by CO2 injection is driven by performance and cost

Curing of CO2 is partially driven by increasing the performance and
reduction of cost
No changes in codes and standards necessary
CO2 emissions are high for production of concrete. It is a market that
would also be source of CO2
• However, incentives to reduce CO2 emissions are low
Funding was available for developers in the past; especially strong in
the US and Canada. Several companies are in the commercialization
stage
Concrete offers a solution for permanent CO2 storage
CO2 curing would reduce water usage
Source: Carboncure
52
Concrete
Technologies used for curing of concrete
Conversion Example Developers Key advantages of Key hurdles for Pressure and Purity
technology technology commercialization
CO2 Injection (for Solidia, CarbonCure Injecting CO2 during Making the High pressure, high-
curing) concrete mixing technology more purity CO2 is
process expedites amenable to ready- preferred to
the carbonation of mix concrete as minimize detriment
cement; this can opposed to pre-cast. to curing process or
result in increased concrete product
compressive
strength.
53
Concrete
Curing of concrete by CO2 will pick up
without additional incentives, but can be
accelerated
The total concrete market is expected to grow to approximately 40 G metric tonnes by 2030 with a CAGR
between 3 and 4% as estimated by Lux Research
Concrete cured by CO2

18
Pessimistic
16
Concrete production (B tonnes/
Optimistic
14 Best case
12
10
year)
8
6
4
2
0
2015 2020 2025 2030
Concrete curing by using CO2 offers immediate investment opportunities with a

potential for high ROI, while also delivering on CO2 abatement 54
Carbonate aggregates
Aggregates
Market drivers: Carbonate aggregates have
potential for high impact on CO2 abatement
Carbonates Market
Carbonate aggregates produced from CO2 can be used in
concrete, asphalt, and construction fill
Conversion of CO2 into carbonates offers the potential to
convert low-value materials (such as solid wastes containing
calcium oxide, slugs from steel plants, or ash from municipal
incinerators) into useful products.
A drawback is that these materials have to be transported
to the site where carbonates are produced, thus increasing
the price of CO2 derived carbonates
• Carbonates aggregates from CO2 compete with the
current process of mining carbonates from quarries.
Drivers
CO2 emissions are high for production of concrete. It is a
market that would also be source of CO2
• However, incentives to reduce CO2 emissions are low
Funding in the past for developers; especially strong in the
US and Canada. Several companies are in the
commercialization stage
Concrete and others offer a solution for permanent CO2 Source: Calera
storage
56
Aggregates
Technology used to produce carbonates from CO2
Direct Calera, Carbon8 Industrial alkaline Increasing High pressure, CO2
Carbonation Aggregates, Carbstone solid wastes (e.g. carbonation reaction captured from flue
Innovation, Blue Planet steel slag) as sources rate – reactor design gas means processes
of silicate minerals is key to encourage must handle
eliminate the need to mass transfer impurities
mine natural ores. between gas, liquid,
and solid phases.
Indirect Huazhong University of Extraction of the Demonstrating value High pressure, CO2
Carbonation Science and reactive component over direct captured from flue
Technology, Pontifical prior to carbonation carbonation – gas means processes
Catholic University step results in high- indirect carbonation must handle
purity carbonate adds extra steps and impurities
product. solvent usage.
57
Aggregates
Carbonate aggregates from CO2 have high
potential for CO2 abatement, but need to
become cost-competitive
The total aggregate market is expected to grow to approximately 50 G metric tonnes by 2030 with a CAGR
Carbonate aggregates from CO2

12
Pessimistic
Aggregate production (G tonnes /
10 Optimistic
Best case
8
year)
0
2015 2020 2025 2030
Carbonate aggregates from CO2 offer long term opportunities if investments are
made in CO2 infrastructure and scaling up technology 58
Methanol
Methanol
Market drivers: Conversion of CO2 to
methanol is driven by the desire for fuels
from renewable sources
Largest demand for total methanol market is in chemicals
Formaldehyde (30%) followed by methyl tert-butyl ether, acetic acid and
dimethyl ether
Methanol to olefins is an emerging sector
Use as a fuel blend is becoming more popular and will further drive up
demand in the future
Methanol from CO2 is currently only cost competitive in special

scenarios
Funding for ‘renewable’ methanol is tied to production of energy from Source: Methanex
renewable sources
Limited by the cost of hydrogen, usually produced by the electrolysis of
water
• To produce cheap hydrogen, electricity source must be inexpensive
(e.g. hydrothermal source in Iceland, wind in Germany)
Policies and regulations for CO2 mitigation could help reduce costs
• Driven by reduction of carbon emissions as set by COP21 in Paris
Major hurdles for the renewable methanol market are the current high
production costs and low production volumes
60
Methanol
Technology for conversion into methanol:
Catalytic hydrogenation is the predominant
commercial method
Catalytic Carbon Recycling Fast reaction, high Requires hydrogen High pressure,
Hydrogenation Initiative, Antecy, fractional conversion, feed, low single pass processes must
Pennsylvania State already conversion, high handle impurities
University, National commercialized reaction temperature
University of
Singapore, University
College London
Photocatalytic Dimensional Energy, Combines renewable Catalyst efficiency, Low pressure, feeds
Conversion University of Toronto, energy and carbon catalyst must be quite pure to
Innosense LLC, utilization, low decomposition, slow maintain energy
Reactwell temperature and reaction, at lab stage efficiency
pressure
Electrochemical Catalytic Innovations, Can use store surplus High capital cost of Low pressure, feeds
Conversion Sustainable electricity without electrochemical cells, must be quite pure to
Innovations emitting CO2, low poor energy efficiency, maintain energy
temperature and difficulty of reducing efficiency
pressure CO2 without reducing
H2O, lab stage
61
Methanol
Funding and incentives drive methanol
from CO2 to move away from limited
production in special circumstances
The total methanol market is expected to grow to ~190 million metric tons by 2030 with a CAGR between 7
and 9% as estimated by Lux Research
Lux assumes that the bio feed stock market share for methanol used as a fuel is 50% by 2030. The overall market share of
methanol used a fuel increases from 12% in 2015 to 30% in 2030.
Methanol used as a chemical intermediate lacks as no clear incentives for CO2 mitigation are given for chemical
production and no projects that target this segment exist currently.
Methanol from CO2 used as fuel Methanol from CO2 used as chemical intermediate
40 10
Pessimistic Pessimistic
Methanol production (M metric

Methanol production (M metric
Optimistic Optimistic
8
30 Best case Best case
tonnes / year)
tonnes / year)
6
20
4
10
2
0 0
2015 2020 2025 2030 2015 2020 2025 2030
CO2 conversion to produce methanol has high potential as demand for renewable
fuels is growing. Investments are necessary to drive this market to its full potential 62
Formic acid
Formic acid
Market drivers: Formic acid from CO2 has a weak
value proposition
Formic acid market
Currently, formic acid is used as a chemical intermediate: adhesives,
preservatives, dimethylformamide (DMF), among others.
Formic acid is more reactive than methanol making it more suitable
as a chemical intermediate. Research in reduction of CO2 to formic
acid (CH2OH) is still early-stage.
Formic acid has been proposed as fuel for fuel cells. Although
interesting, this is still in proof-of-concept phase.
Formic acid has potential as a chemical intermediate and as a fuel

for fuel cells
Formic acid from CO2 is being investigated by developers because it
is the most efficient route from CO2 to another compound, together
with CO and methanol.
Applications of formic acid will need to be developed; demand is
relatively low currently.
The driver for using CO2 conversion to produce formic acid is weak,
as chemical intermediates are not incentivized by governments to be
replaced by renewable sources.
If formic acid can be used as a fuel for fuel cells, this would allow for
carbon-neutral transportation if the energy source is renewable.
64
Formic acid
Technology used to produce formic acid from CO2
Catalytic Ecole Polytechnique Fast reaction, high Requires hydrogen High pressure, CO2
Hydrogenation Fédérale de Lausanne, fractional feed, low single pass captured from air or
Carbon Sequestration conversion, conversion, high flue gas means
Ltd, University of inexpensive robust reaction processes must
Pittsburgh catalysts temperature, lab handle impurities
stage with most
research confined to
universities
Electrochemical CO2ElectroRefinery, Can use store surplus Poor energy Low pressure, since
Conversion Mantra Energy electricity without efficiency, difficulty CO2 has such low
Alternatives, emitting CO2, of reducing CO2 reduction potential,
Sustainable operates near STP, without reducing feeds must be quite
Innovations, Carbon good conversion H2O, lab stage, toxic pure to maintain
Electrocatalytic efficiency and expensive energy efficiency
Recycling Toronto palladium catalysts
65
Formic acid
Funding and incentives drive formic acid;
potential is small as compared to other
market segments
The total formic acid market is expected to grow to ~1 million metric tons by 2030 with a CAGR between 3
and 4% as estimated by Lux Research
Formic acid from CO2

0.5
Pessimistic
0.45
Formic acid production (M metric
Optimistic
0.4 Best case
0.35
tonnes / year)
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
2015 2020 2025 2030
CO2 conversion to produce formic has high potential in theory as formic acid is
suitable as a chemical intermediate. However, demand for formic acid will remain
low unless specific applications are more developed 66
Syngas
Syngas
Market drivers: Syngas is versatile as a
chemical intermediate, making it suitable
for current studies on CO2 conversion
Syngas market
The syngas (CO + H2) market is growing with a CAGR at 8%,
although relatively small in size currently
• Use of syngas is versatile, more reactive than e.g. methanol
Syngas can be used to make liquid fuels (by Fischer-Tropsch
reaction) as well as chemical intermediates (e.g. methanol)
Syngas is also used for power generation. However, this is not Source: SyngasChem
applicable to CO2 conversion as CO2U will not be able to compete
with other methods to generate power.
Developers of CO2 conversion choose syngas as it can be used

to produce a range of chemicals and fuels
More versatile as an add-on to a current industrial plant,
production of syngas allows developers to produce fuels or
chemical intermediates down stream
• For example, the technology can be used for an add-on to
steel plants to decrease carbon emissions
No direct incentives for companies to use renewable sources to
produce syngas currently
Renewable alternatives include generation of syngas from biomass
68
Syngas
Technology to produce syngas/CO from CO2
Electrochemical Ceramtec, Haldor High efficiency, low High temperature Low pressure, since
Conversion Topsoe, NCF operating cost, causes long start up CO2 has such low
already and instability reduction potential,
commercialized feeds must be quite
pure to maintain
energy efficiency
Catalytic Innovator Energy, Energy efficient Expensive catalyst High pressure,
Hydrocarbon Argonne National Lab, reaction, durable materials, requires Feedstock must be
Reformation Carbon Electrocatalytic catalyst hydrocarbon feed, pure CO2, H2, and
Recycling Toronto high operating hydrocarbons
temperature
69
Syngas
Syngas from CO2 has significant potential
as it can be used as a chemical intermediate
to many chemicals and materials
The total syngas market is expected to grow to ~500 GW Thermal by 2030 with a CAGR between 8 and 10% as
estimated by Lux Research
The syngas market is large, but difficult to quantify as syngas is normally converted to other chemicals or used for power
generation
Syngas from CO2

300
Pessimistic
Syngas production (GW thermal/
250 Optimistic
Best case
200
year)
150
100
50
0
2015 2020 2025 2030
Many developers are investigating CO2 conversion to produce syngas. However,
production of syngas from CO2 will have to be incentivized to be able to compete
with more conventional syngas production methods by 2030 70
Polymers
Polymers
Market drivers: Polymers from CO2 are dominated
by polycarbonates and polyols
Market
Fewer developers as compared to the other three markets
• Focus on production of polycarbonates and polyols from CO2
• Research into other types of polymers is more fragmented
Mainly large companies involved in the development of polymers
• Partially due to access to know-how and production facilities
Reduction of CO2 emissions at chemical and material plants

Funding in place in Europe for companies to explore possibilities of
using CO2 as a feedstock
Reduction of CO2 emissions at the industrial plant
• Note that often CO2 is not the only source of carbon, thereby
limiting the impact of CO2 mitigation
Exploration of alternative feedstocks
• Use of CO2 as a feedstock made during production of other
chemicals/polymers
Currently, the thermo-catalytic process is not cost-competitive due Source: Empower Materials
to cost of process and cost of CO2
72
Polymers
Technology to produce polymers from CO2
Epoxide Empower Materials, Products are Typically uses High pressure,
Copolymerization Novomer, Imperial amorphous, clear, petrochemical feed, catalysts are very
College London, Econic readily processable, reaction depends tolerant to
Technologies, Norner, have long term heavily on catalyst impurities, so feed
Covestro mechanical stability, selection, side quality is
process uses less reactions hinder CO2 unimportant
petrochemicals than sequestration
incumbents
Fermentation Newlight Technologies, Performed near Must include other Performed near
Clean Carbon Energy, standard pressure cellular building atmospheric
Kindai University and temperature, blocks in substrate, pressure, live
plastics created can bacteria are very cultures are sensitive
have carbon over sensitive to O2, lab to many impurities,
90% from CO2 stage, limited so the feed must be
research pure enough to be
safe
73
Polymers
Polyols and polycarbonates from CO2 have
been commercialized, but it remains to be
seen if the technology can compete on cost
The polycarbonate and polyol market is expected to grow to 17M metric tonnes by 2030 with a CAGR
Lux has targeted polyols and polycarbonate from CO2 as these polymers are the most developed in terms of
commercialization. Other polymers, such as polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHA), are far from commercialization.
Polymers from CO2

8
Pessimistic
7
production (M metric tonnes/ year)
Optimistic
6 Best case
Polyol and polycarbonate
0
2015 2020 2025 2030
Corporations are investigating CO2 conversion to produce polymers. Reduction of

the cost of CO2 and/or incentives to reduce carbon emissions will have to be
implemented to be able to compete with polymers from conventional feedstock 74
Methane
Methane
Market drivers: Methane from CO2 competes with
low-price natural gas
Market Natural gas production
in trillion cubic feet
Methane is produced from resources such as shale gas, tight gas and
coalbeds.
• Most natural gas production is expected to come from shale
gas
Bio-methane from renewable sources is being investigated to reduce
CO2 emissions
• Methane from CO2 conversion will compete with bio-methane,
both can be introduced in the net as substituted natural gas
Drivers
Funding in Europe for co-electrolysis of CO2 and water is ongoing as
several countries have high alternative energy capacities such as
hydro-electric or wind power
Funding to lower carbon emissions, Europe is ahead of the pack
• Consortiums set up in Europe involving members of the value
chain (universities, energy supplier, CO2 supplier, converter and
user)
Shale gas is replacing coal burning plants in the US; thereby reducing
carbon emissions and reducing the drive for reduction of CO2
emissions in countries such as the US. Source: Audi-egas
76
Methane
Technology to produce methane from CO2
Fermentation Electrochaea, Krajete Produces high quality Must include other Performed near
GmbH methane, can utilize cellular building atmospheric
biological process blocks in substrate, pressure, can use
waste bacteria are very biological process
sensitive to O2 waste as feedstock
Catalytic ETOGAS, National Energy efficient, can Requires hydrogen High pressure,
Hydrogenation University of Singapore, operate at a small feed, high reaction impurities
Chinese Academy of scale in a variety of temperature, accumulate on
Sciences settings, already thermal stability of catalyst surfaces so
commercialized catalysts at high they must be
temperature removed for efficient
operation
Photocatalytic NextPotential Combines renewable Low conversion Low pressure, since
Conversion energy and carbon efficiency, CO2 has such low
utilization, operates overpotential, reduction potential,
near standard catalyst feeds must be quite
temperature and development pure to maintain
pressure (STP) energy efficiency
77
Methane
Methane from CO2 is possible, but it
remains to be seen if it can be profitable
The overall methane market is expected to grow to 4-5 trillion m3 by 2030 with a CAGR between 1 and 2% as
estimated by Lux Research
Methane from CO2

70
Pessimistic
Methane production (B cubic
60 Optimistic
Best case
50
meters/ year)
40
30
20
10
0
2015 2020 2025 2030
CO2 conversion to produce methane can only be cost-competitive if alternatives

are made more expensive by carbon tax or by mandating methane from renewable
sources 78
Liquid fuels
Liquid fuels
Market drivers: Mandates for renewable fuels offer
opportunities for liquid fuels from CO2
Market
The liquid fuel market consists of gasoline, diesel, and kerosene
This market also includes fuel additives such as methanol and
ethanol
Biofuel segment from renewable sources such as sugar cane has Global Production of Biofuels
been growing due to funding and incentives 4E+10 5.0%
• Fuels from CO2 conversion has a negligible market share
Biofuel market share

currently 4.0%
3E+10
Gallons / year
3.0%
Drivers 2E+10
Funding is in place for renewable fuels to lower carbon emissions, 2.0%
Europe is ahead of the pack
1E+10
Europe has a mandate to have 10% of fuels from renewable sources Global
Globalliquid fuel
biofuel production 1.0%
production
by 2021 Market
Bio fuelsshare biofuels
market share
0 0.0%
• Source of energy would have to be renewable
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Consortiums set up in Europe involving members of the value chain
(universities, energy supplier, CO2 supplier, converter and user) Source: Lux Research
Note that fuels from CO2 conversion target the same market as
biofuels from bio-based feedstocks
• The global market share of bio-fuels has increased to 4% in
2015
80
Liquid fuels
Technology to produce liquid fuel from CO2
Photocatalytic University of Texas Combines renewable Low conversion Low pressure, since
Conversion Arlington, Solar Jet energy and carbon efficiency, CO2 has such low
utilization, operates overpotential, reduction potential,
near standard catalyst feeds must be quite
temperature and development pure to maintain
pressure (STP) energy efficiency
Biocatalysis Algenol, Joule Good conversion Poor cost efficiency, Performed near
Unlimited, LanzaTech, efficiency, can utilize poorly understood atmospheric
Photanol, Aljadix biological process mechanism, risk of pressure, live
waste, nearly mutations in growth cultures are sensitive
commercialized phase harming to many impurities,
production so the feed must be
pure enough to be
safe
Catalytic University of Bath, Energy efficient, can Requires hydrogen High pressure, CO2
Hydrogenation Reactwell, Pioneer operate at a small feed, high reaction captured from air or
Energy scale in a variety of temperature, flue gas means
settings thermal stability of processes must
catalysts at high handle impurities
temperature
Note that catalytic hydrogenation is a first step conversion of CO2 and followed by a second conversion
step to liquid fuels such as Fischer-Tropsch 81
Liquid fuels
Liquid fuels from CO2 has potential to
replace polluting alternatives
The overall liquid fuel market is expected to grow to approximately 1 trillion gallons by 2030 with a CAGR
Liquid fuels from CO2

180
Pessimistic
160
Liquid fuel production (B gallons/
Optimistic
140 Best case
120
100
year)
80
60
40
20
0
2015 2020 2025 2030
CO2 conversion to produce liquid fuels requires an integrated approach to develop

the technology, incentivize renewable fuels by policy and develop an infrastructure
of low-cost CO2 82
Contents
Executive summary
Methodology
Why CO2U ?
State of CO2U
Methodology
Drivers
Barriers and risks
Appendix
83
Implementing strategic actions will drive adoption
of CO2U
Timeline for production

in full scale
Equivalent to market penetration of 2%
Without strategic actions

84
A roadmap for implementation of
top-5 CO2U technologies
2020 2025 2030
Potential Annual $150B–$400B

Revenue (dollars) $50B–$200B
Without strategic actions $10B–$60B
Concrete
0.04B–0.2B
Potential Reduction 0.2B–0.7B
in CO2 Emissions (tons) 0.6B–1.4B
Strategic actions implemented $10B–$250B
Without strategic actions
$4.5B–$60B
$1B–$5B
Fuels
0.01B–0.03B
0.03B–0.5B
0.07B–2.1B
$15B–$150B
$6B–$30B
$0.3B–$4B
Aggregates
0.01B–0.1B
0.1B–0.7B
0.3B–3.6B
$2B–$25B
$0.1B–$0.6B $0.4B–$2.5B
Polymers
0.00002B–0.00005B 0.00004B–0.0002B 0.0001B–0.002B
$0.2B–$5B $1B–$12B
$0.1B–$0.2B
Methanol
0.0001B–0.001B 0.0008B–0.02B 0.005B–0.05B
85
CO2U product’s market potential
86
Estimations of the market size is explained in the Appendix
CO2U product’s mitigation
potential in tonnes CO2 captured
Estimations of the amount of CO2 captured is explained in the Appendix 86

Contents
Executive summary
Methodology
Why CO2U ?
State of CO2U
Methodology
Drivers
Barriers and risks
Appendix
88
Concrete
Barriers and risks for curing of concrete using CO2
Key barrier/risk Means to mitigate Likelihood of successful

mitigation by 2030
Availability of CO2 for curing Capture of CO2 during production High, A comprehensive supply
of cement and development of a chain will follow suit if demand is
supply infrastructure there
Lack of incentive for concrete Concrete manufacturers could be High, Concerns about global
manufacturers to adopt process incentivized to reduce carbon warming will result into action by
emissions by governments governments for solutions that
have an immediate impact
Lack of number of developers Increase funding to ‘green’ High, Technology has proven to
concrete be viable
89
Concrete
Incentives for development of a CO2
infrastructure and to lower CO2 emissions
will drive this market forward

Policy Pessimistic
Optimistic
Best case
Optimistic
Best case
Market Pessimistic
Optimistic
Best case
Policy Barrier: Lack of incentives for producers of concrete to reduce CO2 emissions
Technology Barrier : The technology barriers are minimal
Market Barrier: Lack of access to an infrastructure of supply of relatively high-purity CO2
Detailed description of the strategic actions is given in the Appendix 90

Aggregates
Barriers and risks for carbonate aggregates from CO2
Key barrier/risk Means to mitigate Likelihood of success mitigation

by 2030
Demonstration at large scale at Process integration of conversion High, infrastructures can be set
low-cost to carbonates and local supply of up to be cost competitive with
solid waste and CO2 traditional aggregates
Lack of incentives for aggregate Subsidize early developers of CO2 High, programs and regulations
producers; Payback periods could conversion to carbonates or tax connected to COP21 will take
be too long carbon emissions at cement time to be implemented. Europe
factories is most likely the early adopter.
Product will have to be qualified Expedite standardization and High, regulations and standards
by existing regulations regulations to lower time to less will have been resolved by 2o30
than 5 years
Other barriers include access to CO2, lack of funding to move the technology past low capacity
production, and lack of cost competiveness due to transportation costs involved with waste material
to be used as feedstock.
Carbon8 is currently producing 180k tonnes per year carbonate aggregates, but it remains to be seen
how scalable their technology is.
91
Aggregates
Aggregates from CO2 is only cost-
competitive after developing a robust
supply of feed stock

Policy Pessimistic
Optimistic
Best case
Optimistic
Best case
Market Pessimistic
Optimistic
Best case
Policy Barrier: Lack of incentives for producers and end-users of carbonate aggregates to reduce
CO2 emissions
Technology Barrier : Direct carbonation technology is not yet in full scale for most developers
Market Barrier: Lack of access to an infrastructure of supply of CO2 and transportation cost of
waste such as calcium oxide lowers the cost-competiveness of aggregates from CO2
Methanol
Barriers and risks: Methanol from CO2

by 2030
Access to low-cost H2 Development of electrolysis and High, pilot programs are in place
access to low-cost renewable
energy, i.e. process integration of
renewable energy or excess
energy, carbon capture and
conversion to syngas
Reduction of compounds besides Catalysts promoting CO2 High, catalyst improvements are
CO2, especially H2O and catalyst production and inhibitors of side expected
efficiency reactions; Further catalyst R&D
Current mandates for fuels from Increase mandates, implement High: Mandates are likely to
renewable sources can be met by carbon tax or replace bio-based become more strict by 2030
feedstocks
Note that developments in the electrification of transportation might make fuels redundant in future
(>2035).
Other barriers include access to a clean energy supply, relatively low energy density of methanol as
compared to gasoline, creation of a CO2 and/or methanol infrastructure, and uncertainty about
funding. Note that some of these are also valid for other markets for fuels, polymers or chemicals.
93
Methanol
Access to low-cost feedstocks and energy
is pivotal

Policy Pessimistic
Optimistic
Best case
Optimistic
Best case
Market Pessimistic
Optimistic
Best case
Policy Barrier: Increase in mandates set by governments to increase renewable fuels share of fuels
Technology Barrier : Improved conversion of CO2 and electrolysis to produce hydrogen.
Improvements in catalysis, i.e. conversion rate, selectivity and lifetime are necessary.
Market Barrier: Process integration of renewable energy, feedstock and conversion process is not
cost-competitive
Formic acid
Barriers and risks: Formic acid from CO2

by 2030
More efficient conversion Research into improve catalyst High, development will take 10-15
selectivity and increasing catalyst years
life. This includes catalysts that
would allow for contaminated CO2.
Lack of funding for programs to Set up government or private High, funding is available in Europe.
focus on formic acid from CO2 programs, especially in APAC and US and APAC will follow suit if
the US. programs are successful
Incentivize collaboration between
renewable energy suppliers and
converters.
Lack of current demand for formic Formic acid could be developed as Low, demand in these fields are
acid an alternative ‘green’ chemical unlikely to be high unless there is a
intermediate or a fuel to fuel cells breakthrough in fuels cells
Formic acid from CO2 cannot compete for another 10 years, more likely 15 years. Conversion of CO2 to
formic acid is more early stage than methanol and syngas.
Other barriers include access to a clean energy supply, creation of a CO2 infrastructure, insufficient
incentive for formic acid producers to reduce carbon emissions and lack of access to plants for scale-up
projects. Note that these are also valid for other markets for fuels, polymers or chemicals.
95
Formic acid
Formic acid from CO2 has potential, but
the overall demand for formic is acid is low

Policy Pessimistic
Optimistic
Best case
Optimistic
Best case
Market Pessimistic
Optimistic
Best case
Policy Barrier: Lack of incentives for formic acid producers to reduce CO2 emissions
Technology Barrier : Improved conversion of CO2. Improvements in catalysis, i.e. conversion rate,
selectivity and lifetime are necessary before technology is at scale
Market Barrier: Lack of demand of formic acid. Current production volumes are low. Formic acid has
potential as a possible fuel for fuel cells
Syngas
Barriers and risks: Syngas from CO2

by 2030
Access to low-cost hydrogen and Development of electrolysis and High if excess energy of plants or
access to a clean energy supply access to low-cost renewable renewable sources can be utilized
energy, i.e. process integration of
renewable energy or excess
energy, carbon capture and
conversion to syngas
Lack of demonstration facilities Increase funding for pilot High, Funding in Europe has
programs and for scaling up focused on pilot programs
production of syngas
Lack of incentives to reduce Tax on carbon emissions or Low, although Europe could be
carbon emissions mandate reduction of carbon an early adopter
emissions
Other barriers include competition with syngas generated from bio-mass, creation of a CO2 and/or
syngas infrastructure, and competition with alternatives to reduce carbon emissions at plants. Note
that some of these are also valid for other markets for fuels, polymers or chemicals.
97
Syngas
Process integration to allow for low-cost

feedstocks and energy is pivotal

Policy Pessimistic
Optimistic
Best case
Optimistic
Best case
Market Pessimistic
Optimistic
Best case
Policy Barrier: Lack of incentives for syngas producers to reduce CO2 emissions
Improvements in catalysis, i.e. conversion rate, selectivity and lifetime are necessary
cost-competitive
Polymers
Barriers and risks: Polymers from CO2

by 2030
No incentive for reduction of CO2 Set up mandates and regulations. Low, although Europe could be
emissions for polymers and Incentivize collaboration an early adopter
chemicals at plants between renewable energy
suppliers and converters.
Not cost competitive Improve conversion efficiency, Low, a global carbon tax is
reduce cost of feedstock and/or unlikely
energy, implement carbon tax
Access to low priced CO2 Development of capture of CO2 High, supply chain will be
and creation of a supply chain developed based on progress in
infrastructure other markets
Other barriers include time for qualification of polymers by customers, access to a low-cost clean
energy supply, and uncertainty about funding. Note that some of these are also valid for other
markets for fuels, polymers or chemicals.
99
Polymers
Polymers from CO2 require incentives from
governments to drive full
commercialization

Policy Pessimistic
Optimistic
Best case
Optimistic
Best case
Market Pessimistic
Optimistic
Best case
Policy Barrier: Lack of incentives for manufacturers of polymers to reduce CO2 emissions
Technology Barrier : Improved conversion of CO2 , i.e. conversion rate, selectivity and lifetime are
necessary to reduce cost
cost-competitive
Methane
Barriers and risks: Methane from CO2

by 2030
Requirement of process Development of conversion High, pilot programs are in place
integration technology and access to low-
cost renewable energy, i.e.
process integration of renewable
energy or excess energy, carbon
capture and conversion
No incentive to change; gas is Change in policy to mandate Low, the US is meeting its
seen as an improvement over oil more strict requirements for CO2 current standards
and coal in countries such as the emissions or implement carbon
US taxes
Low-cost and effective catalysts Funding into development of High: catalyst improvements are
more durable and selective expected
catalysts; Development of
fermentation technology
Other barriers include low gas price of fossil derived methane, lack of access to a low-cost hydrogen
and clean energy supply and creation of a CO2 infrastructure. Note that some of these are also valid for
other markets for fuels, polymers or chemicals.
101
Methane
Methane from CO2 require incentives from
governments to drive full
commercialization

Policy Pessimistic
Optimistic
Best case
Optimistic
Best case
Market Pessimistic
Optimistic
Best case
Policy Barrier: Implement global carbon tax to increase viability of CO2 derived methane
Technology Barrier : Improved conversion of CO2 and electrolysis to provide hydrogen, i.e.
conversion rate, selectivity and lifetime are necessary
cost-competitive
Liquid fuels
Barriers and risks: Liquid fuels from CO2

by 2030
Current mandates for fuels from Increase mandates or replace bio- High: Mandates are likely to
renewable sources can be met by based feedstocks become more strict by 2030
Access to renewable energy at a Increase availability from energy High: in areas of oversupply of solar
low price from solar, wind and other and wind energy
renewable sources
Efficient conversion of CO2 Technological advances in High: Advances in catalysis and

conversion of CO2 are necessary to photocatalysis should allow for
allow for different quality more efficient conversion
feedstocks to be used and to
increase the yield of the conversion
Note that developments in the electrification of transportation might make fuels redundant in future
(>2035).
Other barriers include lack of access to a low-cost hydrogen and clean energy supply and creation of a
CO2 infrastructure. Note that some of these are also valid for other markets for fuels, polymers or
chemicals.
103
Liquid fuels
Process integration, mandates set by
governments for renewable fuels and
improved catalysis are necessary

Policy Pessimistic
Optimistic
Best case
Optimistic
Best case
Market Pessimistic
Optimistic
Best case
Technology Barrier : Improved conversion of CO2 and electrolysis to provide hydrogen i.e.
conversion rate, selectivity and lifetime are necessary
cost-competitive
Overview of barriers to be mitigated and their
relevance to the four markets
Policy
There is a lack of long-term policy framework. No clear target
exists for CO2 mitigation and to which extent CO2U can play a role.
Policy
In general, regulations for CO2 mitigation are lacking. Although 5 Building materials
carbon tax exist in several countries, a global carbon tax would be
4 Chemical intermediates
more effective in driving adoption of CO2U.
3 Fuels
2 Polymers
Technology
1
A lack of coherent funding strategies exists from governments on
CO2U technology. 0
Improvements in technology on CO2 reduction and electrolysis to

form H2 are necessary to decrease the cost of CO2U. Technol
Market Technology
ogy
Market
A barrier is the lack of access to facilities to scale up CO2U technologies.
CO2U has to compete with conventional feedstock and bio-based feedstocks. These options are often lower in
cost.
Another barrier is the lack of access to feedstocks. This is the case for hydrogen, CO2, and renewable energy.
Process integration of renewable energy, feedstock and conversion process is not cost-competitive
105
Contents
Executive summary
Methodology
Why CO2U ?
State of CO2U
Appendix
106
Case studies have been carried out to show how
strategies have been applied
Policy
Case study on mandates for renewable fuels in EU by 2021
Case study on prevalence of carbon tax
Technology
Case study on sponsoring research in CO2U in Europe and North America
Case study on driving innovation from research to pilot testing
Market
Case study to sequester CO2 using CO2U technology with no CAPEX for users
Case study on CO2U when energy source and feedstock are available
Case study when process integration is the goal
Case study on new technology: from concept to full-scale production
107
Technology
Numerous collaborations in Europe
provide opportunities for driving more
effective CO2U technology development
Awareness and appreciation of the risks of CO2 emissions is relatively
higher in Europe than in the rest of world, and thus the EU has set up a
climate action plan to transition to a low-carbon economy by 2030.
This is reflected by the high number of research consortiums between

research institutes, industry, and governments concerning CO2U . These
programs are funded by both the EU (Horizon 2020) and national
governments.
Examples of current and recent consortiums include the SCOT project,
Carbon2Chem, ENCO2RE, Eco-Cement, CYCLICCO2R, and Voltachem
These programs often encourage large corporation involvement
Projects, such as MefCO2, are set up that involve energy suppliers, and
carbon capture and CO2 conversion developers to fully develop the CO2
mitigation work flow
Collaborations between CO2 emitters, power suppliers, and CO2U

technology developers allows for business cases to work that would
normally not succeed if the actors would act by themselves.
108
Policy
Case study on mandates for renewable
fuels in EU by 2020
In 2009 a renewable energy directive by passed by the European Parliament: The target for 2020 for
transportation was set to achieve 10% share of renewable fuel, the bulk of which was expected to
come from biofuels.
Mandatory national targets were set to achieve this share
Progress from 2010 to 2015 was slow – with 5.7% of renewable fuel in transport in 2014, similar to the
target for 2010 of 5.75%
Note that biofuels are controversial because of the land-use necessary to grow feedstock for
production of bio-fuels
The process for setting the target of 10% of renewable fuel by 2020 started in 2007, with the EU
resolution on the Road Map for Renewable Energy in Europe.
Several rounds of negotiations were necessary between the EU Commission, Council and Parliament
New mandates and targets are typically made in cycles of 5-8 years
In 2014, the EU decided to have only one target for renewable energy after 2020, which is now set
for renewable energy as a whole, with a focus on wind and solar.
A new target for fuels from renewable sources after 2020 will not be set for renewable fuels,
although some groups are hoping for mandates for blending bio-fuels in conventional fuels
Fuels from CO2 compete with biofuels, but have a better value proposition as land-use
is low. The EU has set up funding for projects on CO2-derived fuels. 109
Policy
Case study on prevalence of carbon tax
Carbon tax would have a significant impact on

reduction of CO2 emissions. The number of
countries that have implemented the tax has
increased from 8 in 2005 to 17 currently. The most
recent country to have done so is Canada in 2016.
The ratified Paris agreement might lead to
more countries adopting the tax.
The carbon tax ranges from $1/tonne of CO2
emissions in Poland to $137/tonne of CO2
emissions in Sweden
A major concern for governments is the likely

negative impact of a carbon tax on the overall
economy, as e.g. forecasted by the EIA in 2013
The World Bank publishes yearly reports on

carbon tax and the emission trading system (ETS)
ETS and carbon tax implemented
ETS implemented or scheduled
or scheduled
Coalitions between countries and corporations Carbon tax implemented or ETS implemented or scheduled,
scheduled carbon tax under consideration
have been set up to promote carbon tax, such as ETS or carbon tax under Carbon tax implemented or
the carbon price leadership consideration scheduled, ETS under consideration
Source: World Bank Group in 2016 110

Technology
Overview of recent consortiums on CO2U
in the EU; Germany is leading
Name Location Technology Funds Start date
SCOT Project EU Emerging CO2U technologies Unknown 2013
Carbon2Chem Germany Catalytic conversion of flue gas CO2 to €60 2016

fertilizers and fuel with renewable energy million
EnCO2re Germany Initial focus on polymers and chemicals €3M+ 2014
annual
budget
Eco-Cement EU Enzyme-based microbial carbonate €2.2M 2013
(concluded) precipitation from industrial emissions
CyclicCO2R EU Catalytic conversion of CO2 to cyclic €5.2M 2013
carbonates, especially glycerol carbonate
Voltachem The Electrochemical conversion of CO2 to Initial 2014
Netherlands chemicals and fuels with renewable grant of
energy €2M
MefCO2 EU Conversion of CO2 to methanol with €11M 2015
renewable energy
111
Technology
Despite lack of systematic support from
the US government, CO2U technology is
making progress
Awareness and the drive for CO2 mitigation is less prevalent in the US than
in Europe. This is partially due to falling CO2 emissions through decreased
use of coal and the increased use of natural gas for electricity generation.
Fewer consortiums on CO2U technology exist in the US as compared to

Europe, the two examples are EPRI and the Solar Fuels Institute.
Funding from the government lags the EU, e.g. the CO2U program by
NETL ended in 2013. ARPA-e is funding several current projects.
In contrast to Europe, there is greater focus on the relatively mature
enhanced oil recovery technology
The National Science Foundation (NSF) funded $14.8M in research on catalysis
for CO2 reduction between 2011 and 2016; The number of projects has been
constant during last 4 years
In further contrast to the EU, US funding is largely private and at the
startup level, e.g., the Carbon XPRIZE competition.
Investors in CO2U technologies should monitor if there are shifts in funding

for CO2U technology in the US.
In contrast, funding in Canada is increasing, such as in the Clean Energy

Fund Program, especially in CCS technology.
112
Technology
Promoting the commercial success of CO2U:
North America versus Europe
NRG COSIA Carbon XPRIZE EnCO2re
What An international CO2U competition based in An innovation and market development program
North America developed by Climate-KIC, supported by the
European Union
Goal Accelerate the development of technologies Helping CO2U research projects achieve
that convert CO2 into valuable products commercial success; Initial focus is on polymers
and chemicals
Approach Teams with a commercially viable CO2U idea Provides research groups with funding for CO2U -
demonstrate their technology in front of related projects
judges. - Consortium of 12 European industry and
- Judges score the teams based on the research partners including Covestro
amount of CO2 used and the type of - Unites research with business activities
product produced across Europe which would otherwise be
- The two winning teams receive a $7.5M disconnected
prize - €3M+ annual budget
Timeline Launched: September, 2015 Founded: 2014

Competition: Aug, 2016 – Feb, 2020 Most studies get funded for 2 to 3 years
Designing programs to local environments help bring CO2U technologies to market: (1)
innovation through competition in the US and (2) innovation through multifaceted and strategic
research in Europe. 113
Market
Case study to sequester CO2 using CO2U
technology with no CAPEX for users
Company funding and development history
CarbonCure Technologies, located in Canada, is a
developer of a CO2 injection technology for concrete 2007 Company founded in Canada
curing 2007 Early prototype testing with Shaw Group
Has made technology available for both pre-cast and 2012 Innovacorp leads an initial funding of $4M
ready-mix concrete markets
2012 Completes first industrial scale production
CarbonCure uses an equipment leasing model demonstration with Shaw Group
Eliminates CAPEX for its customers 2012 Tweaked process to make amenable to
ready-mix segment
Charges customer on a per m³ of produced 2012 350 Capital leads Series A funding of an
concrete
undisclosed amount
Improves compressive strength of Portland cement 2013 Signs agreement with concrete block
concrete by 10-20% manufacturer Atlas Block
2013 Business Development Bank of Canada
Can reduce cement demand by 5-10% and water
demand by 30-60 liters per m³ concrete leads Series B funding of $3.3M
2015 Pangaea Ventures leads Series C funding of
Technology was spun out of McGill University by $2.5M
Founder and CEO Robert Niven 2016 Pangaea Ventures contributes another
Timeline from founding to revenue generation was 6 $1.4M in Series C funding
years 2016 Argos becomes first adopter of ready-mix
technology
CarbonCure Technologies was able to commercialize CO2U in 6 years by (i) utilizing a
licensing and leasing model to eliminate CAPEX for its customers (ii) using CO2 injection
114
technology developed at a university
Market
Case study on CO2U when low-cost energy /
supply of feedstock is available: Carbon
Recycling International
Carbon Recycling International (CRI), located in
Iceland, is a developer of methanol production from 2006 Company founded in Reykjavik
CO2 via catalytic hydrogenation Initial funding assumed to be several
2007
CRI makes full use of the geothermal resources million dollars by Lux
available in Iceland 2008 Technology development
CO2 is captured from geothermal off-gas 2009 Pilot plant production
Electrolysis to produce H2 using geothermal
electricity 2011 Plant construction
Renewable methanol is reported to have a 90% 2012 Plant opening at 1,300 t/yr capacity
lower carbon footprint than conventional gasoline
The technology used for conversion of CO2 into 2013 First sales of renewable methanol
methanol is based on previous research performed 2013 Methanex invests $5M
at universities by e.g. George Olah, a Nobel
Laureate 2014 Capacity expanded to 4,000 t/yr
This shortened the technology development time
2014 Project for full integration with partners in
line to 2 years Germany funded for 80% by EU
Timeline from founding to first sales of renewable 2015 Geely (owner of Volvo Cars) invests $45M
methanol was 6 years
CRI was able to commercialize CO2U in 6 years by (i) access to low cost renewable
energy and feedstock and (ii) using hydrogenation technology developed at universities 115
Market
Case study on consortium for process
integration: collaboration between cross-field
developers
A pilot-scale full system integration of synthesis of
methanol from captured carbon dioxide using
surplus electricity; The pilot is carried out in
Germany
The aim of the project is to demonstrate economic
feasibility of valorizing captured CO₂ to produce
chemicals and fuels
This is a first step at full process integration by using
the know-how of several partners
Multiple partners in industry and academia: Carbon
Recycling International, Mitsubishi Hitachi, Steag
Power Plant, Hydrogenics and several universities
The 4-year MefCO2 project started at the end of
2014; The operations from pilot to demonstration
are expected to start in 2017
Funding is 11M euro, of which 80% is from Horizon
2020 (EU)
The target by 2018 is to produce 350 tonnes of
methanol per year
Technology is developed enough to set up pilot-scale full process integration of CO2

feed, CO2 capture, H2 production from renewable energy, and CO2 conversion 116
Market
Case study on new technology: from concept to
full-scale production: LanzaTech
LanzaTech, headquartered, is a developer of
ethanol production from CO via anaerobic microbes 2005 Company founded
Began research based off a microbe purchased in 2005-2007 Lab research and first bioreactor design
2005, but it proved too environmentally sensitive
2007 $12 million in Series A funding from Khosla Ventures
Combined selective evolution and recombinant 2008 15,000 gallon/year pilot plant opened at a steel mill
technology to produce a more suitable microbe, and
their founder’s previous experience in bioprocesses 2009 NZ government grant of $9 million
allowed a successful bioreactor design in under 2 2010 Development partnerships including Baosteel, PNNL,
years Chinese Academy of Science
2010 $18 million in Series B funding from Qiming Ventures
LanzaTech develops proprietary microbe strains to
convert waste gases containing CO and H2 into 2011 100,000 gallon/year pre-commercial plant opened
chemical intermediates and fuels near Shanghai
Successfully operated pre-commercial plant, and
Ethanol production from steel mill gas 2012
opened another at the same size
Alcohol to jet fuel process at pilot stage in a $56 million in Series C funding from Burril Malaysian
partnership with Virgin Atlantic, who will test it in 2012 Life Sciences Fund, $15 million debt funding from
flights starting in 2017 Western Technologies Investments
Process requires minimal treatment of waste gas 2013 Production of commercial units and aviation fuel for
before feeding it to microbes, reducing cost certification
Timeline from founding to commercial operation First two commercial plants operating using steel gas
was 8 years with over $200 million in grants and 2014
to ethanol process. $112 million in Series D funding
funding from Mitsui
LanzaTech was able to commercialize their biofuel production from CO by fermentation

in 9 years by (i) development of differentiated technology and (ii) multiple successful
rounds of funding 117
Contents
Executive summary
Methodology
Why CO2U?
State of CO2U
Appendix
118
Conclusions: CO2U offers opportunities to mitigate
CO2 emissions at a profit
CO2 mitigation is important to decrease the risks associated with climate change. Carbon capture and
utilization (CO2U) can make an important impact on these efforts.
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) remains an added cost, whereas CO2U utilizes CO2 to produce materials,
fuels, or chemicals
We have outlined that significant progress has been made in CO2U during the last 5 years, with many
technologies shown to be scalable.
Momentum is in favor for 4 markets:
• Construction materials
• Fuels
• Chemical intermediates
• Polymers
Funding and incentives are necessary to move toward full scale capabilities
We have show that moving the full scale capabilities for CO2U opens up access to markets valued at $700B
We have laid out which strategic actions are necessary to move the needle in favor of CO2U
CO2U has the potential to utilize 7 billion tonnes of CO2 per year by 2030. This is equivalent to approximately
15% of current global CO2 emissions.
119
Acceleration of implementation of CO2U
technologies: 5 key strategic actions
Increase the cost of polluting competition: Key will be to (i) implement global carbon tax, (ii) increase
mandates for renewable products and fuels and/or (iii) incentivize reduction of CO2 emissions by
fuel, chemical, materials and building materials producers.
Decrease the cost of utilization of CO2: Fund research (i) to improve catalysis for CO2 reduction to
lower the energy required for conversion of CO2 and (ii) to reduce the cost electrolysis to produce H2
or to develop alternative routes for H2 production.
Scaling up of production: Funding made available to set up collaborations between research

institutes, start-ups, governments and corporations for process integration of CO2 conversion, H2
generation, and carbon capture.
Access to low-cost CO2: Persuade governments and incentivize CO2U enablers to develop a CO2
infrastructure in anticipation of growth in CO2 demand by CO2U .
Maximize high potential long shots: Fund applied research on long-shot technologies and
applications that have high CO2 abatement potential.
120
Technology
technologies: CO2U processes that require less
energy
Decrease cost of utilization of CO2: Fund research to improve catalysis for CO2 reduction and catalysis for
electrolysis to produce H2
Conversion of CO2 requires more energy than conversion from conventional feedstocks due to the
thermodynamic stability of CO2. Research and development is focusing on catalysis and conversion
processes to reduce the amount of energy required to convert CO2
• Thermo-catalytic conversion of CO2 has been commercialized for several applications. In general,
yields, catalyst life and selectivity will need to be increased further. In addition, operating
temperatures should be reduced to lower operating costs. Funding should go into applied research
in catalysis.
• A feed of H2 is necessary for many processes. Generation of H2 by electrolysis using renewable
energy sources at low-cost is necessary to make CO2U cost-competitive. Funding should go into
applied research in electrolysis.
Fund research on alternative processes to thermo-catalytic conversion of CO2. Fermentation,
electrochemical conversion and conversion by photo-catalysis should receive funding as these processes
can be lower in energy usage.
Fund research that allows for using CO2 feeds with contaminants for CO2U . Most CO2U technology
requires relatively high-purity CO2 as contaminants have a detrimental effect on catalyst life.
Set up consortiums and collaborations between universities, developers, and corporations to bridge the
gap between applied research and commercialization
Fund applied research on long-shot technologies and applications that have high CO2 abatement potential
121
Technology
Summary of solutions and actions in
technology for CO2U
Solutions for advances in technologies Strategic actions
Applied research into long-shot applications Set up a foundation

that funds research at
universities and
Applied research into low energy conversion technologies national labs
Development of current scalable Set up a consortiums to

technologies to full-scale facilitate collaborations
between universities,
Facilitate pilot-scale testing business and
governments
Timeline for solutions in scale
1 year 15+ years
Note that timelines for solutions in scale are based on our qualitative analysis 122
Policy
technologies: Pushing for policies that drive
reduction of CO2 emissions
Increase cost of polluting competition: Carbon tax, mandates for renewable products and fuels and/or
incentivize reduction of CO2 emissions by fuel, chemical, materials and building materials producers
In general, the cost of chemical, materials and fuels produced by CO2U technology is 4-10 times higher
than those produced from conventional hydrocarbon derived feedstocks
• To be competitive, the cost of using conventional hydrocarbon derived feedstocks will have to
increase by implementation of a carbon tax
• Carbon tax is implemented in 17 countries. Local governments are wary of implemented carbon tax
due to fear of losing competitive edge. Hence, a global carbon tax will be necessary to push local
governments to implementing carbon tax
Alternatively, steps can be taken to incentivize use of CO2U technology by mandating chemicals,
materials and fuels from renewable sources or by forcing producers to lower CO2 emissions during
production
• Mandates for renewable fuels have been set in several countries, such as 10% by 2020 in the EU.
These mandates should be increased, as well as extended to chemicals and materials.
• A barrier for renewable fuels (and chemicals) is the high land-use necessary to grow bio-based
feedstock off-setting the positive environmental impact of using renewable fuels. Renewable
materials, chemicals, and fuels from CO2 have much lower land-use. This should be emphasized to
policy makers.
Access to an infrastructure of low-cost CO2 is necessary for CO2U to be successful. Governments should
incentivize development of a CO2 infrastructure to anticipate the growth in demand of CO2 for CO2U .
123
Policy
policy for CO2U
Solutions for policy Strategic actions
Global carbon tax Advocate advantages

of CO2U to reduce CO2
emissions to local
Mandates for renewable products governments. CO2U
should be seen as an
viable solution to
Incentives for companies to reduce CO2 reach mandates and
emissions CO2 emission targets.
Set up fund for seeding

Funding for CO2 infrastructure initiatives in CO2
infrastructure
1 year 15+ years
Market
technologies: Scaling up production
Collaborations for process integration of CO2 conversion, H2 generation, and carbon capture
Successful implementation of CO2U technology requires more than low-energy CO2 conversion. It is
necessary to fully integrate carbon capture, H2 supply and access to renewable energy to CO2 conversion.
Collaborations and consortiums should be set up and funded that allow for the following to occur:
• The integration of carbon capture to be able to supply CO2 for conversion
• Supply of H2 from a chemical plant or technology such as electrolysis that allows for generation of H2
at low cost
• Access to low –cost renewable energy such as electricity available from overcapacity
• A plant for CO2 conversion to a fuel, polymer or chemical intermediate
Invest in CO2U companies that allow for low CAPEX . Currently, this mainly applies to companies
developing curing of concrete by CO2.
Fund and partner with companies that have scalable CO2U technologies
We have included profiles of companies of interest in the next section
125
Market
market for CO2U
Solutions for market Strategic actions

Full scale employment of CO2U technology Find and fund
that has been shown to be scalable developers with
potential
Process integration of energy,
feedstocks and conversion
Fund and facilitate
Scalable CO2U when collaborations between
there is access to universities, developers
renewable energy and governments
Low CAPEX Invest in developers

CO2U with potential
1 year 15+ years
Contents
Executive summary
Methodology
Why CO2U?
State of CO2U
Appendix
127
Building Materials
CarbonCure Technologies:
CO2 to Calcium Carbonate Retrofit
Device for Concrete Plants
Technology and differentiators:

CO2 injection process increases the compressive strength of Portland
cement concrete by 10-20% Summary information
Improved strength allows concrete to use less cement and water
Founded in 2007
Strategy and markets
Dartmouth, NS,
Generates revenue by leasing equipment to concrete manufacturers with Location
Canada
most revenue from the ready-mix segment rather than pre-cast
Type Startup
Business is exclusively in the North American market
Argos, Praxair, The
Barriers Key partners Linde Group, BDC
Currently little incentive for concrete manufacturers to reduce carbon and backers Venture Capital,
Pangea Ventures
emissions
Has raised $9.8M in
Impact on CO2 mitigation: Positive Funding Series A, B and C
Sequesters CO2 through upcycling in concrete
funding since 2007
Six granted patents
IP strength and 30 pending
patents
Stage of TRL >9, launched
development several products
128
Building Materials
Carbon8:
Pelletizes waste and CO2 into building
materials

Accelerated Carbonation Technology treatment for soil or waste hastens the
natural carbonation process to allow materials to be reused or cheaply Summary information
disposed while sequestering CO2
Founded in 2006
The process is faster than most carbon treatments and can be used on waste
streams including slag, contaminated soil, and water treatment sludge Location Chatham, UK
Strategy and markets Type Mid Size
The company’s strategy is to build and operate its own plants in partnerships Grundon Waste
with companies developing appropriate wastes
Key partners Management, BP,
and backers Shell, Lafarge,
Barriers Buckingham Group
Not all of their processes create value added products. Some only create Millions of dollars in
wastes that are less expensive or more environmentally friendly to dispose investments with
Funding Grundon as main
of, which does not provide as much of an economic advantage backer
Impact on CO2 mitigation: Positive Holds a patent on
Operating multiple plants with technology that sequesters CO2 from a IP strength their aggregate
production process
variety of waste streams
TRL >9, First
CO2 abatement is high Stage of commercial facility
development was built in spring
2012
129
Building Materials
CO2 Upcycling:
CO2 Mineralization to 3D-printable
material, CO2NCRETE

Process combines CO2 from flue gas with 3D printed calcium hydroxide to
create a carbonate building material Summary information
Strategy and markets Founded in 2016
Interested in US market, but particularly focused on using the technology in
Location Los Angeles, CA
China and India for their growing greenhouse gas contributions
Type Startup
Currently undertaking lab-scale proof of concept for 18 months, seeking to
commercialize in the following 5-7 years Key partners UCLA, UCLA Luskin
Center for
Barriers and backers Innovation
The technology is in the lab stage and its primary barrier is the UCLA, currently
demonstration of its viability, first technically and later commercially seeking funding for
Funding lab scale proof-of
Impact on CO2 mitigation: Positive concept
3D-printing technology should use less energy than conventional processes IP strength No IP granted
for shaping the concrete
TRL 3, established
High potential technology that sequesters CO2 Stage of proof of concept,
development need to develop
prototype system
130
New CO2 Fuels:
Syngas Production via Electrolysis

Uses waste heat from industrial processes and/or renewable electricity to
perform high temperature gas phase electrolysis of CO₂ and H₂O to produce Summary information
syngas
Founded in 2011
Modular solution can integrate with existing industrial processes
Location Rehovot, Israel
Seeks to integrate their technology with CO2 emitting plants (e.g. steel, Type Startup
glass, cement, etc.) in order to turn waste products (CO2 and heat) into GreenEarth Energy,
valuable products Key partners ErdiFuels,
and backers Weizmann Institute
Barriers
of Science
Technology needs to be proven in pilot scale
$12 million initial
High capital costs Funding
investment
Impact on CO2 mitigation: Positive
Six patents in
This technology could significantly reduce CO2 emissions associated with
IP strength
multiple regions
industrial processes
TRL 5, currently
Offers a cost effective way for industrial processes to mitigate their own CO2 Stage of
developing pilot
development
either by recycling it in their system as syngas or selling it as fuel for an device
additional revenue stream
131
Dioxide Materials:
Catalytic CO2 Reduction and
Hydrogenation

Develops catalysts and membrane electrode assemblies
Claims its proprietary catalyst lowers the cost of conversion by a factor of 3 Summary information
Main business focus is to license technology but also has interest in selling Location Boca Raton, FL
its membrane electrode assemblies and small scale CO2 c0nversion units
Type Startup
Barriers
Key partners
Currently operates at small scale with only 100 W electrolyzers, but hopes to 3M
and backers
scale up to 500 W units to produce 2 kg of CO per day
$15 million in
Will need to demonstrate technology beyond lab scale
funding from the
Impact on CO2 mitigation: Positive Funding
government since
Electrolyzers operate on renewable energy and the technology offers a 2010
carbon neutral method of storing grid power Five patents
approved revolving
IP strength the catalyst and
CO2 conversion to
fuels and chemicals
Stage of TRL 5, beginning
development pilot studies
132
Carbon Recycling International:
Scaled Methanol Production via
Catalytic Hydrogenation

Uses electricity to power large scale electrolyzers for hydrogen production
Low pressure and low temperature scaled catalytic hydrogenation of CO2 to Summary information
methanol
Founded in 2006
Location Kópavogur, Iceland
Sources CO2 from industrial or power plant flue gas
Business model is to build plants, produce and sell in global fuel market, Type Small-sized
starting with EU and China Geely, Methanex,
Key partners Perstorp, Mitsubishi
Also aims to retrofit plants that release H2 as a byproduct to produce a Hitachi Power
and backers Systems, HS Orka,
methanol side stream, including steel and chemical plants Solvay
Barriers $45M and $5M
Using water electrolysis to produce H2 is more expensive than producing it investment from
Funding Geely Auto and
from fossil fuels, but CRI is able to supply in Europe due to mandates set for
Methanex
renewable fuels
Has one approved
Impact on CO2 mitigation: Positive patent in U.S.;
IP strength several other
Can turn renewable sources of electricity into liquid transport fuel and
patents filed
chemical intermediates
Stage of TRL >9, operates
If the methanol is used as a fuel, CO₂ mitigation potential is positive if used small commercial-
as a replacement to fossil fuels development scale facility
133
Polymer
Novomer:
CO2-Based Polymers Produced via
Catalytic Conversion

Conversion of CO2 and epoxides to polymers and polyols using a proprietary
catalyst Summary information
Claims polymers contain up to 50% CO2 by weight
Founded in 2004
Claims CO2 process can result in a 25% reduction in material cost
Location Waltham, MA
Type Small-sized
Target market for its polyols is primarily that of polyurethane coatings,
adhesives, sealants, elastomers, flexible foams, and rigid foams Saudi Aramco
Key partners Energy Ventures,
Barriers and backers DSM, Ford Motor
Co.
Cost competitiveness of polymers made from CO2 compared to
conventional products is a major hurdle $15 million in initial
Funding funding
Impact on CO2 mitigation: Moderate Approximately 20
Although it gets incorporated into the polymer and is usually not released, patents granted
IP strength and 100 patents
CO2 is not the only carbon source used to produce the product
pending
Stage of TRL >9, outsources

production to a
development scaled facility
134
Polymer
Oakbio:
Microbial Conversion of CO2 Waste
Gases to Polymers

Chemoautotrophic bacteria convert waste CO2 to products including n-
butanol, polyhydroxyalkanoate (PHA), and animal feed Summary information
Non-photosynthetic bacteria are less demanding of resources and
Founded in 2008
environment than photosynthetic alternatives
Location Sunnyvale, CA
Proprietary strains can process cement flue gas and oil refinery waste gas
directly Type Startup
Strategy and markets Lehigh Southwest
Key partners Cement, Pacific Gas
Strategically focused on partnering with CO2 emitters as feedstock suppliers and backers and Electric, Ohio
Markets PHA as a biopolymer replacement to petroleum derived plastics State University
Barriers ~$1M combined
Funding from the CCEMC*
Experienced difficulty in finding partners and commercializing their and CEC**
products 11 patents pending,
Cost competitiveness may be reliant on CO2 regulations two patents
IP strength granted, and three
Impact on CO2 mitigation: Positive licenses
Technology does offer promise and could have significant impact if properly Stage of TRL 6, validated
commercialized bioreactors at pilot
development scale
*Climate Change and Emissions
Management Corporation 135
**California Energy Commission
Polymer
Econic Technologies :
Catalyst development for the
polymerization of CO2 with epoxides

Develops homogenous organometallic catalysts to convert CO2 and
epoxides to polycarbonates Summary information
Catalysts can also be used to produce polyols like polyurethane
Founded in 2011
Location London, England
Intends to be a catalyst designer and supplier
Type Startup
Target customers are companies that produce polycarbonates or polyols
Norner Verdandi
Expects its customers will source CO2 from other chemical facilities and Imperial
Key partners
Barriers and innovations College London -
and backers Imperial
Has yet to prove full-scale commercial viability Innovations
Cost competitiveness has suffered with falling oil prices Raised over $12M
Funding since 2011
Impact on CO2 mitigation: Moderate
IP strength 8 patents filed
Polymers can contain up to 50% CO2 by weight
Stage of TRL 6, currently
Although CO2 is sequestered in the process, it requires feedstocks besides operating in pilot
CO2 development scale
136
Fuels
ETOGAS:
Scaled Methane Production via
Catalytic Hydrogenation

Unique in using large scale alkaline water electrolyzers
Offers scalable solutions for all steps of biogas production including flue gas Summary information
scrubbing, electrolysis and methanation
Founded in 2009
Recovers waste heat in high pressure steam
Location Stuttgart, Germany
Type Mid-sized
Offers hydrogen production via electrolysis and catalytic hydrogenation as
both separate and bundled services Audi, Center for
Key partners Solar Energy and
Focused on licensing technology and selling process equipment Hydrogen Research
and backers Baden-
Barriers Wuerttemberg
Even with ETOGAS’ improved process, hydrogen production via electrolysis $7.5 million in
provides a significant barrier in cost competitiveness with fossil fuels Funding venture funding
Impact on CO2 mitigation: Positive Several patents
covering
Large scale, turnkey systems allow easy integration to existing plants which IP strength electrolyzers and
holds promise for CO2 mitigation in both the short and long term methanation
As a reuse technology, mitigation potential is positive if used as a Stage of TRL >9, reactors are
replacement to fossil fuels commercially
development available
137
Fuels
Electrochaea:
SNG Production with Methanogenic
Archaea

Converts CO₂ to methane by fermentation using a selectively bred microbe.
The hydrogen necessary for this conversion is produced from electrolysis Summary information
Claims patented BioCat methanation technology can operate at lower
Founded in 2010
capital and costs than conventional processes
Drives electrolysis with excess wind energy at its 1 MW demonstration plant Location Planegg, Germany
in Denmark Type Startup
Strategy and markets Energinet.dk, NEAS
Business model is to be the technology provider, providing the core Key partners Energy, HMN
Gashandel, Danish
technology to licensees and Engineering, Procurement, & Construction and backers Energy Agency and
(EPC) partners BIOFOS
Looking at applications for its technology in biogas market and large scale Funding in the
(>10 MW) energy storage Funding millions, enough for
$7.2 M plant
Barriers
Four filed patents
Production cost heavily dependent on levies and taxes on electricity IP strength on organism and
Must prove commercial scale viability bioreactor design
Impact on CO2 mitigation: Positive Stage of TRL 7, integrated
development pilot plant online
As a reuse technology, mitigation potential is positive if used as a
replacement to fossil fuels
138
Fuels
University of Texas at Arlington:
Converting CO2 to Hydrocarbons with a
Cobalt TiO2 Catalyst

A one-step, gas-phase photothermocatalytic process to synthesize
hydrocarbons such as liquid alkanes, aromatics and oxygenates Summary information
Able to generate products with a carbon number up to 13
Founded in 1895
Location Arlington, TX
Long chain hydrocarbons could serve as drop in replacements for many fuels
Type Research Institution
The researchers are working to commercialize the process but have not
addressed strategy in detail Key partners University of Texas
and the National
Barriers and backers Science Foundation
As a lab stage technology, demonstrating its technical and commercial $2.6M in grants and
Funding corporate funding
viability and scalability is the primary barrier
The researchers have stated that the system is currently not commercially 1 U.S. patent
IP strength pending
viable but they are working on catalyst and system efficiency
TRL 3, established
Impact on CO2 mitigation: Positive Stage of proof of concept by
Long chain hydrocarbons extend the applicability of fuels development synthesizing
hydrocarbons
As a reuse technology, mitigation potential is positive if used as a
replacement to fossil fuels
139
Contents
Executive summary
CO2 Sciences goals
Methodology
Why CO2U?
State of CO2U
Appendix
Methodology
140
Contents
Executive summary
CO2 Sciences goals
Methodology
Why CO2U?
State of CO2U
Appendix
Methodology
• Module 1
141
3 step research plan to develop the path forward for
CO2 Sciences
Module 1: Global CO2U landscape update

Evaluated CO2 Sciences’ view on the top 4 markets through targeted secondary and primary research
Prioritized the top 4 market opportunities

Segmented each of the top 4 markets into top 2-3 sub-segments by technology platform
For each segment described market drivers, barriers and risks
Provided a high-level, order-of-magnitude market size for further prioritization
Module 3: Roadmapping and investment recommendations

Estimated and compared timelines for commercialization
Laid out CO2 Sciences’ potential strategic actions
142
Module 1 lays the foundation for a firm
understanding of status quo in CO2U
Module 1: Global CO2U Landscape Update
Lux built on CO2 Sciences’ prior knowhow as well as our own ongoing coverage of global CO2 utilization
technology to develop a preliminary “state of the industry” perspective, identifying the top four markets
for CO2U via the following activities:
Targeted secondary research on sources including conference proceedings, industry papers, and academic journals
Interviews with 15 key developers and stakeholders in corporate, policy, and research roles
Assembled these findings into a database of 179 CO2U developers
Based on this research, Lux identified the following as the highest potential markets:
Building materials
Chemical intermediates
Fuels
Polymers
143
Lux’s research process for module 1
Continuous reevaluation
Secondary research / in- Use Lux’s in-house knowledge and information from
house knowledge publications, trade journals and company websites to
list CO2U developers
Populate database and analyze entries on products

Populate database and conversion technology
Information from interviews Glean information on trends and developments in

and reports CO2U technology
Select 4 high potential Based on the first three steps Lux will select the 4
markets markets with the highest potential
144
Contents
Executive summary
CO2 Sciences goals
Methodology
Why CO2U?
State of CO2U Progress of the 4 markets during the last 5 years
Appendix
Methodology
• Building the database and using it for the 2 by 2 innovation grids
145
Lux’s research process for developing the CO2U
database
Analysis of Lux Research in-house knowledge. These

In-house knowledge and companies were added to the CO2U database.
database
Identify relevant companies from conference proceedings,

Populate CO2U database SCOT database, Pitchbook, patent search, and consortium
websites.
Analysis of current status, stage of development (TRL),

Validate database
product(s) made and type of technology. We categorized the
type of technology and the type of product.
Assess and recommend Asses information from interviews, Lux’s database, SCOT
database, patent/literature searches and publicly available
information.
146
Lux’s database is a searchable tool that enables
exploration of CO2 mitigation developers (1/2)
Lux has provided the database of CO2 mitigation developers in Excel format.
Each row provides basic information on an organization including:
Developer type
Technology readiness level
Technology Description
Categorizations of process and products
Location
Relevant links
147
Lux assessed the different developers by a scoring
method
Each developer is assessed across 3 key categories comprised of weighted subscores (as shown below):
CO2 mitigation attractiveness
• Ease of set-up, Market-driven potential, Extent of CO2 used as feedstock
Stage of development score
• Technology readiness level (described in next two slides), Developer maturity, Commercial
maturity
Technology fit score
• IP strength score, Regulatory score, Competitive landscape score, Technology value score
These scores were used to make the 2 by 2 innovation grids

148
Lux used Technology Readiness Level (TRL) to
evaluate the stage of development of technologies
DoD Definition Lux definition Extended definition
1 Basic principles Basic Research: basic Scientific research begins to be translated into applied
observed and reported principles are observed and research and development. Examples might include
reported fundamental investigations and paper studies.
2 Technology concept Applied Research: Once basic principles are observed, practical
and/or application technology concept and/or applications can be formulated. Examples are limited
formulated application formulated to analytic studies and experimentation.
3 Analytical and Critical function, proof of Active research and development is initiated.
experimental critical concept established Laboratory studies aim to validate analytical
function and/or predictions of separate components of the technology.
characteristic proof of Examples include components that are not yet
concept integrated or representative.
4 Component and/or Laboratory testing of Design, development and lab testing of technological
system validation in prototype component or components are performed. Here, basic technological
laboratory process components are integrated to establish that they will
environment work together. This is a relatively “low fidelity”
prototype in comparison with the eventual system.
5 Laboratory scale, Laboratory testing of The basic technological components are integrated
similar system integrated system together with realistic supporting elements to be
validation in relevant tested in a simulated environment. This is a “high
environment fidelity” prototype compared to the eventual system.
149
TRL allows for a granular and structured approach to
determine stage of development
DoD Definition Lux definition Extended definition
6 Engineering/pilot- Prototype system verified The prototype, which is well beyond that of level 5, is
scale, similar tested in a relevant environment. The system or
(prototypical) system process demonstration is carried out in an operational
validation in relevant environment.
environment
7 Full-scale, similar Integrated pilot system Prototype is near, or at, planned operational system
(prototypical) system demonstrated level. The final design is virtually complete. The goal of
demonstrated in this stage is to remove engineering and manufacturing
relevant environment risk.
8 Actual system System incorporated in Technology has been proven to work in its final form
completed and commercial design under the expected conditions. In most of the cases,
qualified through test this level represents the end of true system
and demonstration development.
9 Actual system System ready for full scale The technology in its final form is ready for
operated over the full deployment commercial deployment
range of expected
mission conditions
>9 Market introduction Market introduction The product, process or service is launched
commercially, marketed to and adopted by a group of
customers
150
Lux used the following rubric to assess CO2
mitigation attractiveness
Criterion Score 1 Score 2 Score 3 Score 4 Score 5
Requires two or
Requires
Requires more process
construction of a Requires one Technology is a
construction of a lines for carbon
new plant for process line with drop-in add-on
Ease of set-up new plant for capture and CO2
capture of CO2 significant to current
CO2 conversion conversion with
and CO2 retrofitting processes
step significant
conversion
retrofitting
Low volume Cement or other

Market-driven Miscellaneous
chemicals or high volume Fuels CO2 storage
potential products
materials chemicals
CO2 is present in
Extent of CO2 CO2 is added to CO2 is one of the CO2 is the main CO2 is the only
feedstock, but
used as improve process, feedstocks as a source of carbon feedstock as a
has no function
feedstock not a feedstock source for carbon (>50%) source of carbon
in conversion
151
Lux used the following rubric to assess commercial
development
Technology
TRL 1 or 2 TRL 3 or 4 TRL 5 TRL 6 or 7 TRL >8
maturity
Start-up (less
Small company Middle to large
Developer than five years,
Lab (20-100 company (>100 Global company
maturity fewer than 20
employees) employees)
employees)
Product has no
Products market Product is in Product is
Commercial existing market Product is in
or value are introduction mature; peak
maturity or commercial growth stage
unclear stage sales
value
152
Lux used the following rubric to assess technology

Defensible IP
Defensible IP Defensible IP position with
position subject position with few very few
IP strength No IP Weak IP position to challenges in challenges in challenges in
density and density and density and
overlap overlap overlap due to
uniqueness
Unlikely to Regulations may Regulations pose Favorable
Regulatory No regulatory
proceed due to significantly slow some threat to regulations will
score inhibitors see
regulation development development drive progress
Many
Superior
competitors with Some
Many solution, Unique solution
Competitive different competitors;
competitors with competitors with minimal
landscape solutions; differentiated
similar solutions offer inferior competition
undifferentiated technology
solution
technology
Worse value on Incremental Solid Solid
Same value on
Technology price or improvement to improvement on improvements
price and
value performance price or performance but on price and
performance
than incumbent performance not price performance
153
Lux created 2 by 2 grids to showcase developments
in the market segments
Weighting for visualization from the scoring in the High potential Ahead of the pack
database:
Y-axis - Technology score:20% IP strength, 10% Regulatory
Technology Score
factors, 30% competitive landscape score, 40% Technology
value
X-axis - Commercial Development Score: 60% Technology
maturity, 25% Developer maturity, 15% Commercial maturity
Bubble size - CO2 mitigation potential: 30% ease of set-up, Long-shot Undistinguished
50% market size, 20% extent that CO2 is used as feedstock
Commercial development score

Lux compared the status of the developers in 2011 and 2016.
We color coded the developers in the graph for 2011 based High potential Ahead of the pack
on situation in 2016
Technology Score
Active
Pivot
Discontinued
Idle or unknown
Long-shot Undistinguished
The color in the 2016 graph notes the market segment
Commercial development score 154
Contents
Executive summary
CO2 Sciences goals
Methodology
Why CO2U?
State of CO2U
Appendix
Methodology
• Module 2
155
Module 2 involves several steps for markets and
market segments
Lux segmented the top 4 markets (building materials, chemical intermediates, fuels, polymers) into top 2-3
sub-segments by technology platform
We provided for each market segment at a high level:

Market drivers supporting and inhibiting commercial deployment
Key innovations in conversion technologies
Key barriers and risks in the use of CO2U in each segment
A high-level, order-of-magnitude market size
We provided for each of the 4 markets:

An 2 by 2 competitive visualization of developers
3 profiles of key companies within the market
156
Lux identified top segments in each top market that
were differentiated in one or more of the following
categories
Concentration of developers: Lux considered both the number of developers in a segment and how far
along the path to commercialization those developers were. Success of commercialization was linked to:
Low energy requirements for conversion
Simplicity of reaction mechanisms or processes
Large size of potential markets
Dynamics: Progress of individual developers and the average developer towards commercialization in the
2011 to 2016 timeframe.
We considered how many developers that were at early stage in 2011 progressed or disbanded
We also considered the growth or decrease in the number of developers on this time frame
Outlook: Assessed how long it would take to bring technologies in this segment to scaled production while
being cost competitive with incumbent solutions.
157
Lux has segmented the 4 markets based on market
size, number of developers and potential to grow
Summary for selection

Liquid fuels Large potential market
Fuels
Methane Large potential market
Medium sized market and many developers, ability

Methanol to be used as fuel and chemical intermediate
Chemical Many developers, ability to be used as fuel and
Syngas chemical intermediate
intermediates
Many developers, more suitable as chemical
Formic acid intermediates
Concrete Many developers, large potential market

Building materials
Carbonates Many developers, large potential market
Polymers Polymers Large potential market
158
Fuels offer a large market; CO2U would have
significant impact by replacing fuels derived from
conventional feedstocks
Liquid fuels
Fuels
Methane
Concentration of current developers: A number of developers of both markets are near commercialization.
There are several early stage developers. The focus is on replacing fuels produced from conventional
petroleum-derived feedstocks
Dynamics: Development has been fastest for this market as compared to the others due to funding and
collaborations in Europe
Stage of development went from pilot testing in the lab in 2011 to pilot testing at commercial scale in 2016
• Europe is leading as it has set targets to create a low carbon-emission mobility economy
• Projects often focus on the use of overcapacity of electricity or excess heat from industrial plants
159
Syngas, methanol, and formic acid are investigated
by many developers
Methanol
Chemical
Syngas
intermediates
Formic acid
Conversion of CO2 to single carbon molecules are the most heavily studied for CO2U technologies: CO
(syngas), CH3OH (methanol), CHOOH (formic acid)
These chemicals can be used as intermediates, but also as fuels or precursors to fuels
Fuels from CO2 have been incentivized/funded by governments to lower carbon emissions, this has not been
the case for chemicals
Concentration of current developers:

Methanol: Methanol has potential as a renewable fuel. Very few developers currently. Two companies that
have commercialized technology.
Syngas and formic acid: Many early stage developers focusing on catalysis. Formic acid and syngas offer
versatility to producers as the chemicals can be converted downstream.
160
Polymers and building materials allow for prolonged
capture of CO2
Concrete
Building materials
Carbonates
Polymers Others
Concentration of developers for building materials: High number of developers near commercialization.
Success of commercialization is linked to relative ease of carbonation and improved performance
characteristics of products
The size of potential market is considerable and building materials allow for prolonged capture of CO2
Concentration of developers for polymers: Several corporations have shown that polymers from CO2 can be
produced in scale
Most companies have focused on polycarbonates and polyols (polyols are used to produce polyurethane)
Relative high price of polymers as compared to other markets, such as building materials and fuels
Polymers allow for prolonged capture of CO2 as compared chemicals and fuels
161
Lux’s research methodology for assessing
addressable market size for CO2U
Estimation market size in Analysis of Lux Research in-house knowledge and secondary
2015
publications.
Analysis of Lux Research in-house knowledge and secondary

CAGR of native market to
2030 publications.
Market penetration rate of Estimation of market penetration based on 3 scenarios. Every

scenario has different timelines for mitigating barriers and
CO2U products hence market penetration.
Estimation of the addressable market size based on the

Addressable market size overall market size in 2015, CAGR of the native market and
market penetration for the three scenarios.
162
Lux has estimated the market size of the native
market in 2015
Market Market size 2015 Sources Comments
Concrete 20-30 B metric tonnes Lafarge, Based off market size for cement assuming 12.5%
WorldCement,Portland of concrete is cement. Lux assumed curing of
Cement Assoc. concrete constitutes 10% of value concrete.
Aggregates 25-35 B metric tonnes LaFarge, Cemex Based off concrete, asphalt and construction fill
market size
Methanol 60-70 M metric tonnes IHS, Publication, Methanol None
institute, Methanex
Formic acid 0.5-1.0 M metric tonnes Publication, Trantech None
Consultants
Syngas 130-150 GW thermal M&M, Business Wire, PR Difficult to estimate as syngas is used as an
Newswire intermediate at the same plant as production, as
such producers of syngas do not report output
Polymers 8-10 M metric tonnes Lux Research, Covestro Market size is for polyols and polycarbonates only
Methane 3,000-4,000 B m3 IEA None
Liquid fuels 800-1,000 B gallons Lukoil, U.S. EIA None
163
Lux has estimated the timing of market penetration
of products produced by CO2U
The CAGR of the native incumbent market has Total incumbent market
been estimated based on adjacency to GDP 6
Best case replacement by CO2U
growth
Optimistic replacement by CO2U
CO2U is assumed to replace the incumbent
market, but does not accelerate the overall market Pessimistic replacement by CO2U
4
Market size
The timing and the extent of market penetration
of products made by CO2U can be accelerated by
strategic actions
2
Three scenarios have been generated for the
different market segments:
0
Optimistic: Strategic actions are taken to mitigate 2015 2020 2025 2030
barriers
Best case: Strategic actions lead to removal of
Best case start Optimistic start Pessimistic start
barriers at the earliest possibility
market penetration market penetration market penetration
of CO2U of CO2U of CO2U
The scenarios and necessary strategic actions are
described in the Appendix
164
Timelines for the products from CO2U to
penetrate the market were analyzed based
on the scenarios

Optimistic
Best case
Policy Pessimistic
Optimistic
Best case
Market Pessimistic
Optimistic
Best case
Policy Barrier: Description Barrier has not been mitigated to the extent that products
from CO2U are not hindered to penetrate the market
Technology Barrier : Description
Barrier has been mitigated to the extent that products
Market Barrier: Description from CO2U are not hindered to penetrate the market
The scenarios and necessary strategic actions are described in the Appendix 165
The scenarios allow for estimation of timelines for
initial market penetration
Market Market penetration Market penetration Market penetration

>2% (pessimistic) >2% (Optimistic) >2% (Best case)
Concrete <2020 <2020 <2020
Methanol <2030 <2025 <2020
Syngas <2030 <2025 <2025
Polymers <2030 <2030 <2025
Aggregates >2030 <2030 <2025
Liquid fuels >2030 <2030 <2025
Formic acid >2030 <2030 <2025
Methane >2030 >2030 >2030
The markets are listed in order of initial market penetration of products made by CO2U as estimated by
Lux Research
166
The scenarios were used to estimate the market
penetration rates of products made by CO2U
Market CAGR overall Penetration rate Penetration rate Penetration rate
market (%) (pessimistic) (optimistic) (best case)
Concrete 3.5 75% 85% 150%
Methanol 8 30% 50% 85%

2015-2020
Syngas 8 40% 70% 50%
Polymers 3.5 15% 30% 50%

2015-2025
Aggregates 3.5 35% 50% 50%
Liquid fuels 1.5 35% 45% 95%

2020-2030
Formic acid 3.5 25% 50% 85%
Methane 1.5 40% 55% 60%
The overall market is the native incumbent market

The penetration rate is defined as the annual growth rate of replacement CO2-derived products of this market
Note that the market penetration of CO2U products for all markets is lower than 0.1% in 2015 based on
current production capacity of developers using CO2U
167
Lux has analyzed the addressable market size for
three different scenarios
Example: Market penetration of products from CO2U Example: Addressable market size
80% 40
Pessimistic Pessimistic
Production (M metric tonnes /

Market penatration (% of total
Optimistic Optimistic
60% Best case 30 Best case
market)
40% 20
year)
20% 10
0% 0
2015 2020 2025 2030 2015 2020 2025 2030
Analysis of the market penetration for three scenarios

Optimistic: Strategic actions are taken to mitigate barriers
Best case: Strategic actions lead to removal of barriers at the earliest possibility
Market sizes in USD were estimated for the top 5 market segments in terms of size to build a roadmap
168
Lux converted the volume to market opportunity of
CO2U products
Product Conversion Notes Source
Aggregates $15/tonnes See notes below Department of transportation, LaFarge
Concrete $25/tonnes See notes below LaFarge
$1.5/gallon for liquid

Fuels fuel and $0.15/m3 for Selected natural gas price for US EIA
methane
Methanol prices fluctuate,
Methanol $300/tonnes Methanex
$300/tonnes was taken as an average
$3,500/tonnes
Polymers Not applicable Covestro, BASF
Note that the fuels market includes liquid fuels and methane
There is overlap between the aggregates and concrete market. Up to 80% of concrete consists of
aggregates.
The aggregate market consists of aggregates for concrete (up to 60% of the market), asphalt and construction fill.
For the estimate of the total CO2U market of ~$700B, we have not included 60% of the aggregate market
used for concrete
169
Lux converted the volume to CO2 Mitigation
Potential of CO2U Products
Mt of CO2
Product used / Mt of Assumptions Source
product
Based on CO2 mineralized to calcium carbonate
Aggregates 0.34 Zevenhoven et al., 2006
from wollastonite
NETL
We assumed the conversion factor is the average
Concrete 0.085 Carbon Sense Solutions
of the 3 values found from the sources given
Global CCS Institute
We assumed that gasoline consists of C8H18 on
average. We assumed the conversion factor to be Hoppe et al., 2016
Fuels 3
3 on average based on the stoichiometry of the
reaction of CO2 to C8H18
We assumed the conversion factor to be 1.37 on
Methanol 1.37 average based on the stoichiometry of the Perez-Fortes et al., 2016
reaction of CO2 to CH2OH
Novomer
We assume the conversion factor to be 0.3 on
Polymers 0.3 Econic technologies
average based on the sources given
Covestro
170
Contents
Executive summary
CO2 Sciences goals
Methodology
Why CO2U?
State of CO2U
Appendix
Methodology
• Module 3
171
Module 3 builds upon Module 2 for road-mapping
the different markets
Module 3: Roadmapping and Investment Recommendations
We have built on our prior findings to map out the various market opportunities over a 10-15 year time
horizon in the following manner:
For each market segment that we delineated in Module 2, we estimated a timeline to commercialization for CO2U
based on our professional view on technology evolution.
• We have used hurdles, barriers and drivers to determine scenarios to obtain certain market sizes by 2030
• We built a “road map” indicating whether capital, policy, or technology (or any combination thereof) is the
prime mover at the following intervals: 5 years, 10 years, and 15 years.
We showcase CO2 Sciences’ potential strategic actions in the above-mentioned intervals, including examples of
potential partners and investment targets where appropriate.
We synthesized the findings into a management summary
172
Contents
Executive summary
CO2 Sciences goals
Methodology
Why CO2U?
State of CO2U
Appendix
Methodology
173
Carbon fibers is a longshot opportunity with high
potential for CO2U past 2030
Carbon fiber reinforced plastics (CFRPs) are high-performance structural materials historically used in cost-
insensitive applications that demand light weight and high strength.
Core markets for CFRPs include aerospace, automotive, wind power, and sporting goods.
Lux predicts the total market for carbon fiber composites will grow to $35 billion in 2020 (using 86,000 MT
of carbon fiber), driven primarily by strong growth in the automotive segment.
A 12K tow carbon fiber (tow = number of fibers in a bundle) currently costs around $18/kg. Although
advances in processing will drive down cost in the near term, the industry lacks a long-term solution to the
high cost of PAN precursors.
One possible alternative to PAN precursors is CO2. However, only one apparent developer has emerged
looking at the conversion of CO2 to carbon fibers: Dr. Licht of George Washington University.
Dr. Licht’s study, using an electrolytic bath of molten carbonates, claims operating costs “hundreds of
times less than the value of the product output”. If realizable at scale, this presents a win-win opportunity:
a low-cost carbon fiber solution while abating CO2.
174
Contents
Executive summary
CO2 Sciences goals
Methodology
Why CO2U?
State of CO2U
Appendix
Methodology
175
Case study: The rise, fall, and future of algal fuels
Algae for bio-fuels have been a major topic of research

during the last decade
This makes for a good subject for a case study for
CO2U
Note that production of fuels from algae is a type
of CO2U technology
Over $1 billion of funding for algae-related projects in

the 2009 “Summer of Algae”
However, results from these efforts have been limited as

shown in the next two slides
176
SBIR funding for all algae-related projects peaked in
2009 as well, then drops off significantly after 2011
Funding in the US for algae-related projects

peaked in 2009 to 2011
This led to an increase of number of

developers and start-ups
Source: Lux Research
In 2015, the funding for CCS and CO2U

technology increased significantly in the US
This signifies a surge of new developers in

2015 and 2016
177
Source: Lux Research
However, algal fuels companies pivot or disappear,
while others quietly enter the scene
High-potential Dominant
Success of Algae production for fuels
has been limited due to intrinsic
limitations of the production of
algae.
Funding was available for pilot-scale

testing, but the business case for
production in scale has proven to be
weak
Funding in 2015/2016 will be

available. It is unlikely that
production of algae for bio fuels
really has a strong business case,
unless incentivized globally at scale
Long-shot Undistinguished
Source: Lux Research 178

Contents
Executive summary
CO2 Sciences goals
Methodology
Why CO2U?
State of CO2U
Appendix
Methodology
179
Chemical intermediates
Mitsui Chemicals:
Pilot plant for CO2 to methanol
conversion

Uses H2 obtained from photolysis
Utilizes CO2-containing waste gas at their MCI Osaka Works plant Summary information
Using the methanol to produce olefins and aromatics Location Tokyo, Japan
Announced in 2015 that the pilot plant yielded the data necessary to scale
Type Corporation
up methanol production, but has not taken action to do so
Research Institute
Barriers Key partners of Innovative
The lack of scaling given the success of the pilot and thus its proven and backers Technology for the
Earth
technical viability may point to cost competiveness issues for the product
against other methanol production methods $13.6M for pilot
Funding plant
Cost competiveness may be reliant on a carbon tax
Multiple patents on
Impact on CO2 mitigation: Positive IP strength process and
catalysts
Captures carbon from various industrial waste gas streams
Stage of TRL 9, operating
If commercially scaled, this technology could sequester significant levels of commercial pilot
CO2 development plant
180
Polymer
Covestro (Bayer MaterialScience):
Converting CO2 to Polyurethane Foam

Converts CO2 to flexible polyurethane foam, cardyon®, using a zinc catalyst
Utilizes waste CO2 from a neighboring plant Summary information
Claims cardyon® exhibits the same high quality as conventional materials. Named an
Founded in independent
company in 2015
Leverkusen,
Targets the construction, automotive, electrical and electronics, and the Location
Germany
sports and leisure industries
Type Corporation
Working on incorporating CO2 into other plastics
RWTH Aachen
Key partners University,
Barriers UNITECH, Kunshan
and backers Xiefu New Material
Cost competitiveness with conventional polyurethane products is reliant on Co. Ltd.
oil prices and/or CO2 emission regulations €12.1B in annual
Funding revenue
Impact on CO2 mitigation: Moderate IP strength Extensive IP
Cardyon® contains 20% CO2 Stage of TRL >9, production
plant opened 17
Although CO2 is sequestered in the process, it requires feedstocks besides development June 2016
CO2
181
Polymer
Asahi Kasei Chemicals:
Commercial scale catalytic conversion
of CO2 to polycarbonates

Produces 660,000 tons of polycarbonates from CO2 annually
Modified their existing polycarbonate production process to use CO2 in place
Summary information
of the conventional COCl2 reagent
Technology is compatible with existing production equipment Founded in 1931
Strategy and markets Location Tokyo, Japan
Sells polycarbonate resin products made from CO2 Type Corporation
Widely licenses technology so other companies can produce resins from CO2 Chi Mei
Barriers Corporation,
Key partners Japan's New Energy
They currently cannot create large enough chains for certain key and Industrial
applications including water bottles, and this will limit further growth of and backers Technology
Development
their market share Organization
Impact on CO2 mitigation: Moderate Funding Unknown
Requires reagents aside from CO2, process still has minor CO2 emissions Multiple patents for
Even at 100% market share, the technology would not have a significant IP strength polycarbonate
impact on global CO2 emissions production
Stage of TRL >9, sells
polycarbonate
development resins
182
Contents
Executive summary
CO2 Sciences goals
Methodology
Why CO2U?
State of CO2U
Appendix
Methodology
183
Concrete
Barriers, hurdles, risks that define future market
scenarios for concrete curing using CO2
Lux has highlighted 3 barriers that determine the addressable market size for concrete cured by CO2:
Technology Barrier : The technology barriers are minimal

• Lux assumes a timeline of less than 5 years to be necessary to get carbon curing fully cost-
competitive based on technology
Policy Barrier: Lack of incentives for producers of concrete to reduce CO2 emissions
• Lux assumes a minimum timeline of 5 years to be necessary after governments decide to
implement incentives
Market Barrier: Lack of access to an infrastructure of supply of relatively high-purity CO2

• Lux assumes a minimum timeline of 5 years to be necessary for (i) developers and
governments to decide to build a CO2 infrastructure and (ii) to build an infrastructure.
We have laid out three scenarios for mitigation of these barriers to be able to
estimate time for commercialization and addressable market size 184
Concrete
Timeline for solutions for barriers
without new incentives and funding
Barrier 2015 2020 2025 2030

Technology
Pessimistic
Policy
Market
Barrier has not been mitigated to the extent that CO2U-based products enter the mainstream market
Barrier has been mitigated to the extent that CO2U-based products can enter the mainstream market
Technology Barrier: The technology barriers are minimal
Policy Barrier: No additional political pressure to incentivize concrete producers to reduce carbon
emissions
For this scenario, Lux expects no new policies to be implemented by 2030
Market Barrier: No plans are made to create an infrastructure of supply of relatively high-purity CO2
The infrastructure will grow organically as CO2 curing picks up
185
Concrete
Timeline for solutions for barriers with
new incentives and investments
Barrier 2015 2020 2025 2030

Technology
Optimistic
Policy
Market
Policy Barrier: Governments have recognized the potential of concrete curing to reduce carbon
emissions between 2020 and 2025 and have decided to incentivize concrete producers to reduce carbon
emissions.
Lux expects new policies to be implemented after 2025
Market Barrier: Developers and investors invest in creation an infrastructure of supply of relatively high-
purity CO2 in expectation of growing demand for CO2 curing
The infrastructure will be partially set up before CO2 curing picks up
186
Concrete
Timeline for full mitigation of barriers if
investments and incentives are readily
available
Barrier 2015 2020 2025 2030
Technology
Best case
Policy
Market
Policy Barrier: Governments have recognized the potential of concrete curing to reduce carbon emissions
by 2020 and have decided to incentivize concrete producers to reduce carbon emissions.
Lux expects new policies to be implemented between 2020 and 2025
purity CO2 in expectation of growing demand for CO2 curing. Incentives are in place by governments
The infrastructure is set up before CO2 curing picks up
187
Aggregates
scenarios for aggregates from CO2
Lux has highlighted 3 barriers that determine the addressable market size for carbonate aggregates from CO2
Technology Barrier : Direct carbonation technology is not yet in full scale for most developers
• Lux assumes a timeline of less than 5 years to be necessary to get technology in full scale if
the product is cost-competitive
Policy Barrier: Lack of incentives for producers and end-users of carbonate aggregates to reduce
CO2 emissions
Market Barrier: Lack of access to an infrastructure of supply of CO2 and transportation cost of
waste such as calcium oxide lowers the cost-competiveness of aggregates from CO2
• Lux assumes a minimum timeline of 5 years to be necessary for an infrastructure to be set up
after the technology has shown its potential
Aggregates
Barrier 2015 2020 2025 2030

Technology
Pessimistic
Policy
Market
Technology Barrier: Scaling up of direct carbonation technology is slow due to concerns about cost-
competitiveness
Although this technology has been shown to be commercialized, Lux does not expect this technology to be in scale
until approximately 2025
Policy Barrier: No additional political pressure for producers and end-users of carbonate aggregates to
reduce carbon emissions
For this scenario, Lux expects no new policies to be implemented by 2030
Market Barrier: No plans are made to create an infrastructure of supply of CO2 and waste has to be
transported as plants are not located near source of waste
The infrastructure will grow organically after demand for aggregates from CO2 picks up
189
Aggregates
Barrier 2015 2020 2025 2030

Technology
Optimistic
Policy
Market
Technology Barrier: Programs are set up to drive scale-up of direct carbonation technology to create
demand for carbonate aggregates from CO2
Lux expects this technology to be in scale around 2020 if aggregates from CO2 are cost-competitive
Policy Barrier: Around 2025, governments have recognized the potential of carbonate aggregates to
reduce carbon emissions and have decided to incentivize concrete producers to reduce carbon emissions.
purity CO2 in expectation of growing demand for carbonate aggregates from CO2
The infrastructure be partially set up before demand for carbonate aggregates from CO2 picks up
190
Aggregates
available
Barrier 2015 2020 2025 2030
Technology
Best case
Policy
Market
Technology Barrier: Programs are set up to drive scale-up of direct carbonation technology to create
demand for carbonate aggregates from CO2
Lux expects this technology to be in scale around 2020 if aggregates from CO2 are cost-competitive
Policy Barrier: Governments have recognized the potential of carbonate aggregates to reduce carbon
emissions by 2020 and have decided to incentivize concrete producers to reduce carbon emissions.
purity CO2 in expectation of growing demand for CO2 curing. Incentives are in place by governments.
The infrastructure is set up before demand for carbonate aggregates from CO2 picks up
191
Methanol
scenarios for methanol from CO2
Lux has highlighted 3 barriers that determine the addressable market size for methanol from CO2:

• Lux assumes a minimum timeline of 5 years to be necessary to get technology in scale if
funding is given
investigate to implementation of mandates
Market Barrier Process integration of renewable energy, feedstock and conversion process turns
out to not be cost-competitive without funding as too few projects have been conducted in scale.
• Lux assumes a minimum timeline of 5 years to be necessary for current process integration to
show its viability
Methanol
Barrier 2015 2020 2025 2030

Technology
Pessimistic
Policy
Market
Technology Barrier: Research into improved conversion of CO2 and electrolysis to produce hydrogen
continues at the current rate.
Although this technology has been shown to be commercialized, significant improvements to conversion
of CO2 in scale can be assumed within 5 years, whereas improvements to electrolysis can be assumed to be
within 15 years.
Policy Barrier: New mandates will not be set by governments to increase renewable fuels share of fuels,
i.e. the political will to reduce carbon emissions by changing to fuels from renewable sources is lacking.
Market Barrier: Process integration of renewable energy, feedstock and conversion process turns out to
not be cost-competitive without funding as too few projects have been conducted in scale.
193
Methanol
new incentives and funding
Barrier 2015 2020 2025 2030

Technology
Optimistic
Policy
Market
Technology Barrier: Research into improved conversion of CO2 and electrolysis to produce hydrogen is
receiving additional funding.
Significant improvements to conversion of CO2 in scale can be assumed within 5 years, whereas
improvements to electrolysis can be assumed to be within 10 years.
Policy Barrier: Political pressure has risen to push governments to set new mandates to increase
renewable fuels share of fuels globally.
Mandates can be assumed to be implemented within 15 years.
Market Barrier: More funding has gone into projects that test process integration of renewable energy,
feedstock and conversion process, resulting in projects carried out globally, instead of Europe only.
Testing of cost-competiveness can be assumed to be done within 10 years. 194
Methanol
funding and incentives are readily
available
Barrier 2015 2020 2025 2030
Technology
Best case
Policy
Market
In addition, funding is given for projects to test technology in scale.
Significant improvements for conversion of CO2 in scale can be assumed to be within 5 years and
improvements to electrolysis within 10 years.
Policy Barrier: Political pressure has risen to push governments to set new mandates to increase renewable
fuels share of fuels globally.
Market Barrier: Incentives and funding are in place to push for full process integration of renewable energy,
Formic acid
scenarios
Lux has highlighted 3 barriers that determine the addressable market size for formic acid from CO2:
Technology Barrier: Improved conversion of CO2. Improvements in catalysis, i.e. conversion rate,
selectivity and lifetime are necessary before technology is at scale.
• Lux assumes a minimum timeline of 10 years to be necessary to get technology from lab-
scale to if funding is given
Policy Barrier: Lack of incentives for formic acid producers to reduce CO2 emissions.
Market Barrier: Lack of demand of formic acid. Current production volumes are low. Formic acid
has potential as a possible fuel for fuel cells.
• Lux assumes a minimum timeline of 10 years to be necessary for a step change in demand for
formic acid based on new demand such as fuel for fuel cells.
196
Formic acid
Barrier 2015 2020 2025 2030

Technology
Pessimistic
Policy
Market
Technology Barrier: Research into improved conversion of CO2 and catalysis continues at the current
rate. A scalable solution for formation of formic acid from CO2 can be assumed to take around 15 years.
Policy Barrier: No additional political pressure to incentivize chemical and materials producers to reduce
carbon emissions.
Lux expects new policies to be implemented after 2025.
Market Barrier: Lack of demand of formic acid, formic acid is limited to specific applications, mainly as a
chemical intermediate.
197
Formic acid
Barrier 2015 2020 2025 2030

Technology
Optimistic
Policy
Market
Technology Barrier: Additional funding for research into improved conversion of CO2 and catalysis. A
scalable solution for formation of formic acid from CO2 can be assumed to take less than 15 years.
carbon emissions.
Market Barrier: Lack of demand of formic acid is mitigated by new developments in fuel cells.
Lux expects fuel cell technology using formic to be available at low scale around 2025 if this
technology is funded and receiving continued support.
198
Formic acid
available
Barrier 2015 2020 2025 2030
Technology
Best case
Policy
Market
Technology Barrier: Additional funding for research into improved conversion of CO2 and catalysis.
A scalable technology can be assumed to be available within 10 years.
Policy Barrier: Additional political pressure to incentivize chemical and materials producers to reduce
carbon emissions.
Market Barrier: Lack of demand of formic acid is mitigated by new developments in fuel cells.
Lux expects fuel cell technology using formic to be available at low scale by 2030 if this technology
is funded and receiving continued support.
199
Syngas
scenarios
Lux has highlighted 3 barriers that determine the addressable market size for syngas from CO2:

• Lux assumes a minimum timeline of 5 years to be necessary to get commercialized
technology if funding is given
Policy Barrier: Lack of incentives for syngas producers to reduce CO2 emissions.
Market Barrier : Process integration of renewable, feedstock and conversion process is cost-
competitive without funding.
show its viability
200
Syngas
Barrier 2015 2020 2025 2030

Technology
Pessimistic
Policy
Market
Technology Barrier: Research into improved conversion of CO2 and catalysis continues at the current
rate. A scalable solution for formation of CO from CO2 and hydrogen from electrolysis can be assumed to
take more than 10 years.
carbon emissions.
201
Syngas
Barrier 2015 2020 2025 2030

Technology
Optimistic
Policy
Market
Technology Barrier: Additional research into improved conversion of CO2 and electrolysis.
A scalable solution for formation of CO from CO2 and hydrogen from electrolysis can be assumed within 10
years.
carbon emissions.
Testing of cost-competiveness can be assumed to be done within 10 years.
202
Syngas
available
Barrier 2015 2020 2025 2030
Technology
Best case
Policy
Market
A scalable solution for formation of CO from CO2 and hydrogen from electrolysis can be assumed within 10
years.
carbon emissions.
203
Polymers
scenarios
Lux has highlighted 3 barriers that determine the addressable market size for polymers from CO2:
Technology Barrier : Improved conversion of CO2 would lower cost of polymers produced by
CO2U. Improvements in operating pressure and temperature.
• Lux assumes a minimum timeline of 5 years to be necessary to improve current technology if
funding is given
Policy Barrier: Lack of incentives for polymer producers to reduce CO2 emissions.
show its viability
204
Polymers
Barrier 2015 2020 2025 2030

Technology
Pessimistic
Policy
Market
Technology Barrier: Research into improved conversion of CO2 continues at the current rate. Polymers
from CO2 has been commercialized by several developers, but final improvements can be assumed to
take more than 5 years.
carbon emissions.
205
Polymers
Barrier 2015 2020 2025 2030

Technology
Optimistic
Policy
Market
Technology Barrier: Additional research into improved conversion of CO2 to lower operating costs.
Improvements can be expected to be scalable within 5 years
carbon emissions.
206
Polymers
available
Barrier 2015 2020 2025 2030
Technology
Best case
Policy
Market
Technology Barrier: Additional research into improved conversion of CO2 to lower operating costs.
Improvements can be expected to be scalable within 5 years
carbon emissions.
207
Methane
scenarios
Lux has highlighted 3 barriers that determine the addressable market size for methane from CO2:

Policy Barrier: Implementation of global carbon tax to increase viability of CO2 derived methane
show its viability
208
Methane
Barrier 2015 2020 2025 2030

Technology
Pessimistic
Policy
Market
Policy Barrier: No pressure on governments to negotiate frameworks to implement a global carbon tax.
209
Methane
Barrier 2015 2020 2025 2030

Technology
Optimistic
Policy
Market
Policy Barrier: Increased pressure on governments to negotiate frameworks to implement a global

carbon tax, although not enough pressure to make progress
210
Methane
available
Barrier 2015 2020 2025 2030
Technology
Best case
Policy
Market
Policy Barrier: Governments have started to negotiate frameworks to implement a global carbon tax
before 2025. Lux assumes that global carbon tax will not be implemented before 2030.
Liquid fuels
scenarios
Lux has highlighted 3 barriers that determine the addressable market size for methane from CO2:

Policy Barrier: Implementation of global carbon tax to increase viability of CO2 derived methane
show its viability
212
Liquid fuels
Barrier 2015 2020 2025 2030

Technology
Pessimistic
Policy
Market
Policy Barrier: New mandates will not be set by governments to increase renewable fuels share of fuels,
i.e. the political will to reduce carbon emissions by changing to fuels from renewable sources is lacking.
213
Liquid fuels
Barrier 2015 2020 2025 2030

Technology
Optimistic
Policy
Market
Policy Barrier: Political pressure has risen to push governments to set new mandates to increase
renewable fuels share of fuels globally.
214
Liquid fuels
available
Barrier 2015 2020 2025 2030
Technology
Best case
Policy
Market
Policy Barrier: Political pressure has risen to push governments to set new mandates to increase renewable
fuels share of fuels globally.
215
Contents
Executive summary
CO2 Sciences goals
Methodology
Why CO2U?
State of CO2U
Appendix
Methodology
216
1. Interview with developer
Description: Startup in the U.S. that develops plastic polymers from CO2
Major trends in technology

Developers are shifting away from technologies that produce biofuels from algae
Using CO2 as a feedstock is not a new concept, however the technology to make it into new chemicals is in a very
early stage
There are technologies that we are working on that are just starting to get commercialized
The chemical industry will be at the forefront of developing CO2U technologies
Barriers and opportunities

Meeting the specifications/qualifications of existing materials for new materials
Partnerships on the R & D side of things will really get CO2U where it needs to go
You need companies that are not interested in having a solution today but further down the road
Adoption by the general public of the new material as a replacement can be a challenge
Having an inexpensive source of hydrogen or energy would make CO2 utilization much more attractive
217
Description: Startup in Canada that is developing building materials from CO2

Green building demand continues to rise, however most concrete producers are not driven by CO2 considerations or
climate change intensity
CO2 integration is gaining popularity within concrete producers because:
• Cement is both highly reactive with CO2 and is a low cost material
• The technology is profitable and will not be regulatory driven
Some CO2 cement products will take another 20 years before it is allowed to be used in paving due to safety regulations
• These are ‘new’ products as opposed to drop-in replacements
CO2U technologies must fit with existing supply chains and find the right business models to be immediately scalable
Best market opportunity is in concrete; the CO2 reduction is permanent as opposed to biofuels where the CO2 is
rereleased
• Other applications like plastics represent a much smaller opportunity to reduce CO2
Main hurdles are about scaling up which requires a lot of larger financing instruments
• Leasing technology to manufacturers, removes the financial barrier of expanding
There is renewed innovation funding on carbon utilization in Canada, which might make it a center for new technologies
and innovations
218
3. Interview with researcher
Description: Professor in electrochemistry at a North American university

Artificial photosynthesis is not the answer
Heterogeneous catalysis and electro-catalysis shows the most promise

Availability of cheap hydrogen is necessary for cost-competitive CO2U technologies
Getting policy makers to consider CO2U as a solution to climate change remains a challenge
Shifting attention away from technologies with no promise
219
Description: Head of a startup in Europe developing electrochemical process to convert CO2 to syngas

Our technology has been proven; We have two operational prototypes and are now designing a pilot device
Paris agreement created surge in CO2U inquiries from steel producers
Steel producers account for 11% of global CO2 emissions so they are under tight pressure
Inquiries are from all parts of the world (i.e. negligible regional difference)

Access to cheap energy
Two drivers: (1) utilization of two waste streams - CO2 and heat, and (2) tight pressure to reduce CO2 emissions
Advancements in concentrated solar energy will accelerate key CO2U technologies
Technologies that can create a variety of products (e.g. syngas to chemicals) have the most promise
220
Description: Head of a startup in Canada developing capture technology and distributes CO2 for utilization

Fermentation is more profitable and easier to scale compared to other technologies
Photocatalytic reduction to fuels and the solar fuels technologies are 10+ years away
Using fermentation to convert CO2 to animal feed is a good market opportunity
In the case of EOR, activities have declined in response to falling oil prices
Our technology can reduce hundreds of millions of pounds of CO2 but it will not make a huge impact on global
emissions
If you’re looking at CO2 reuse you have to look at what is the comparison to the product you are replacing
• For animal feed you are replacing cereal production, which is carbon intensive
A lot of technologies are in a very early stage and could benefit from government support
• We are starting to see Canada invest in CO2 reuse processes
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) will probably announce another CO2 reuse program in addition to CO2 capture
in the next year or so
Availability of cheap hydrogen is a significant driver
Low oil prices might slow progress
221
Description: Former research director on renewable and carbon capture technology in Europe

It is unlikely that CO2U processes will be able to compete within 5 years
Most activities are in construction and mineralization
• Others are very niche
It is possible that mineralization technology will be commercial in 5-8 years if someone invests in the technology

Conversion of CO2 to more complicated chemicals requires energy
Societal pressure needs to increase to reduce carbon emissions
CO2 should be accessible as a feedstock
The cement industry might be able to develop CO2U technology first as they produce CO2 to make cement (30% of
their production is CO2)
• A downside is that this industry would be making a new product to replace concrete, thus cannibalizing their
own products
Power to gas conversion (electrolysis of CO2 and H2 to methane); is big in Germany because of oversupply of
electricity
Mineralization (cement) and production of formic acid have the most potential
222
7. Interview with company in oil & gas industry
Description: U.S. oil company that developed a process to produce biofuels with algae

The algae biofuel market is driven by policy and does not make economic sense
When funding is stopped, carbon capture and utilization will disappear
• Similar to what is happening to biofuels
The company is reluctant to get involved with projects involving the environment because developments involving
policy makers are often hyped and driven by desire to change the market

Algae is difficult to grow, relatively constant temperature and sun-light necessary
Algae contain 5% salts, this has to be removed, a huge expense and usage of water
It takes enormous amounts of energy to capture CO2 and to convert it to fuels
• The price of oil would have to be $200+ per barrel to be able to compete
223
Description: Researcher at a research institute in the U.S

There have been huge investments in CO2 pipelines for enhanced oil recovery (EOR) in the U.S.
There is a lot of research going into catalyst development
Recovery costs of CO2 are decreasing as companies improve their CO2 separation technologies

There are many CO2U ideas but not many are economically viable without a price on carbon, something that
penalizes you for conducting ‘business as usual’
• One exception is EOR
Two things that will help overcome economic viability and make CO2U technologies really happen:
• 1. Having free electricity available because CO2U can be an energy storage alternative
• 2. If there is a true cost to emitting CO2
224
Description: Head of a startup in North America developing a CO2U technology

Main drivers are carbon taxes and the fact that CO2 emitters have more regulations to deal with
On the other hand, large chemical companies are more interested in the price premium
• They are looking for a feedstock replacement that is cheaper

Some companies have good results in the lab but encounter problems when they start the commercial application
due to contaminants in the flue gas
The Canadian Prime Minister is going to put a carbon tax on the entire country
• Some grant money is made from those taxes
There is money for CO2U in Canada and Europe
It is extremely difficult to raise private money on CO2U in the US
• Few VC companies are in the clean-tech economy
• Many investments have been taken up by wind, solar and biofuel
225
10. Interview with consortium director
Description: CO2U consortium director in Europe

We are funded through the EU but we get a fair amount of contributions from industrial partners
We are watching Novomer and its interesting building model of licensing technology

There is a lot more opportunity as far as volume for fuels, but some estimates report that CO2 fuels are 5 – 6x the cost
fossil fuels
There are opportunities in polymers and platform chemicals
• It may be more expensive but there is enough margin to cover the cost for those kind of products
Without legislative action or an increase in oil price, the business case for CO2U fuels is not as strong
“If I was thinking about this from investor standpoint I’d be looking at how legislation can create these niche markets
and where these opportunities exist”
226
11. Interview with consortium director
Description: North American CO2U consortium director

More conversion technologies exist in Europe because there is more emphasis on renewables there
Europeans are more focused on consortiums and seem better connected than North Americans

Access to facilities is a major barrier to prove viability at pilot scale or beyond
Access to capital is always a challenge, especially in North America
CO2U developers are often fragmented
• A lot of good work happening but not enough communication between parties
The ability to scale and demonstrate a technology on top of political and social pressures will accelerate the success of
CO2U
227
Description: Researcher of CO2U policy and communication in Europe

Funding for CO2U research is better in some areas (e.g. Germany) than others
There is less of a focus on using renewable energy today due to falling oil prices

CO2U applications in fuels have the biggest potential to reducing CO2 emissions because fuels are so extensively used
• This only makes sense if the energy source is renewable
Polymer technologies are more advanced but the CO2 mitigation impact is smaller
A carbon tax will be a fundamental driver of CO2U technologies
Convincing businesses that CO2U technologies and products are as good as conventional technologies and products
will be a significant driver
228
Description: European researcher of the economics and commercialization of CO2U technologies

Funding for demonstration and pilot plants is limited while the funding for R&D is easier to access
Most CO2U developers are making a substitute product and have to compete with price and quality of the
replacement
CO2U technologies that are closest to commercialization and have the biggest financial opportunity are those that
produce methanol, fuels, polymers and polyols
Mineralization has the biggest potential for impacting CO2 emissions

The most important driver is the cost of energy and the cost of fossil fuels
Government subsidies are needed to help get CO2U technologies to a pilot/demonstration phase
• Processes could then get more efficient, subsidies could decrease and the technologies would be more viable
229
14. Interview with policy officer
Description: European climate policy officer

The European Directive has incentives for renewable energy in transport
In 1 – 2 years , Europe’s strategy to fulfill the goal of 70% renewables by 2030 will become clear
European countries are on target to have 10% of the transport fuel of every EU country come from renewable sources
such as biofuels

There was once some subsidies that covered capital costs for CO2U technologies, but now the subsides are not
enough
In Europe there’s much more incentive to produce low carbon fuels than for chemicals
230
15. Interview with algae researcher
Description: Former employee at an algae CO2U company in China

Less attention on algae technologies today compared to 5 years ago
It is unclear if many different algae technologies are economically viable
Not many algae projects being formed today

Recently China has shifted attention away from CO2 to deal with air quality concerns
• Not a lot of regulation/policies on CO2 in China compared to Europe or the U.S.
It is difficult for algae technologies to be economical unless there is a significant carbon tax
231
Thank you
Lux Research Inc. 100 Franklin Street, 8th Floor Boston, MA 02110 USA Phone: +1 617 502 5300 Fax: +1 617 502 5301 www.luxresearchinc.com

CO2 Sciences-Lux Research-Global Roadmap Study of CCU Technologies Release 2018

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CO2 Sciences-Lux Research-Global Roadmap Study of CCU Technologies Release 2018

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Global Roadmap Study of CO2U

Oct 20, 2016

Case studies on strategies to mitigate barriers or incentivize CO2U technology

Global warming due to carbon dioxide emissions is the grand Concrete

This study analyzed the current state of CO2U technology: $4.5B–$60B

Four major market opportunities in fuel, building Fuels

materials, chemical intermediates and polymers were

Almost 180 technology developers were analyzed to $6B–$30B

Lessons learnt were show-cased as case studies for policy,

Based on the cumulative analysis, a roadmap that depicts specific Polymers

accelerating implementation of CO2U technologies was created Methanol

Module 1: Global CO2U landscape update

Module 2: Opportunity assessment

Module 3: Roadmapping and investment recommendations

A detailed description of the methodology is given in the Appendix 6

Development of CO2U technology is being promoted for three key reasons:

Lux has categorized the different markets for CO2U

Algae, processed separately to fuels or food additives

Fuel, mainly liquid fuel, methane and ethanol

Chemical Intermediate, examples are methanol, syngas

Polymer, examples include polycarbonates, polyurethane

Wide range of conversion processes exist of which

Development of catalysts is a prime research area to

Some conversion processes focus directly on using

Number density of conversion processes

Stage of Development (TRL)

Catalytic conversion technology and mineralization are the

Photocatalytic and electrochemical conversion technologies

Note that consortiums and collaborations have been founded

Chemical 18 77% 25 92%

Polymers 9 67% 4 25%

Total 37 73% 48 75%

US Department of Energy (DoE) 136 800

Chinese Academy of Sciences 79

Tokyo Institute of Technology 52

Is this translating to increased commercialization?

Idle or unknown Long-shot Undistinguished

CO2 Upcycling Terra CO2 Calix Limited

Concentration of developers: High number of developers are near commercialization; whereas we

Long-shot Undistinguished Long-shot Undistinguished

Long-shot Undistinguished Long-shot Undistinguished

Status in 2016 Active

Long-shot Undistinguished Long-shot Undistinguished

Long-shot Undistinguished Long-shot BSE Engineering Undistinguished

Analysis of Lux Research in-house knowledge and secondary

Market penetration rate of Estimation of market penetration based on 3 scenarios. Every

Estimation of the captured market size based on the overall

Market Market size 2015 Sources Comments

Formic acid 0.5-0.7 M metric tonnes Perez-Fortes et al 2016, None

Methane 3,000-4,000 B m3 IEA None

Liquid fuels 800-1,000 B gallons Lukoil, U.S. EIA None

Barrier Scenario 2015 2020 2025 2030

Aggregates 3.5 35% 50% 50%

Formic acid 3.5 25% 50% 85%

Polymers 3.5 15% 30% 50%

Liquid fuels 1.5 35% 45% 95%

The overall market is the total incumbent market

Example: Addressable market size

Analysis of the market penetration for three scenarios

Drivers applicable to most markets

Constraints applicable to most markets

Curing of concrete by CO2 injection is driven by performance and cost

Technologies used for curing of concrete

Concrete cured by CO2