Tabel A-1

Profil Annual Production ( Prediksi ) Lapisan X

Cumulatif Production Gross Production Per Year

(BASE CASE) SKENARIO I SKENARIO II SKENARIO III SKENARIO IV (BASE CASE) SKENARIO I SKENARIO II SKENARIO III SKENARIO IV
Year Year
BBL BBL BBL BBL BBL BOPY BOPY BOPY BOPY BOPY
2007 15615.438838 34982.568475 34592.611591 2007 15,615,438.8 34982568.4754 34592611.5906
2008 14705 24221 57382 84751 84751 2008 910,400.7 10,761,650.8 -22,788,934.7 84,751,079.5 84,751,079.5
2009 10048 16955 49770 85213 85213 2009 4,657,019.8 7,265,819.4 7,611,497.8 461,625.6 461,625.6
2010 6966 11974 44651 85248 85248 2010 3,081,921.7 4,980,885.4 5,118,968.9 35,547.9 35,547.9
PREDICTION

PREDICTION
2011 4887 8516 60802 85511 85511 2011 2,078,642.7 3,458,400.4 -16,151,040.5 262,578.2 262,578.2
2012 3462 6089 75690 85734 85734 2012 1,425,318.5 2,426,485.1 -14,888,067.2 222,945.3 222,945.3
2013 2471 4373 51613 85925 85925 2013 991,022.6 1,716,760.0 24,077,678.8 190,873.6 190,873.6
2014 1774 3150 48584 88165 86912 2014 696,947.7 1,222,643.5 3,028,560.2 2,240,236.3 987,324.9
2015 1280 2275 35663 89636 88382 2015 494,622.6 875,210.2 12,920,710.7 1,471,276.3 1,470,353.1
2016 926 1646 24868 92456 90055 2016 353,554.6 628,978.5 10,795,417.9 2,819,718.2 1,672,799.1
2017 624 1192 17505 93957 91726 2017 302,284.2 453,385.1 7,362,782.1 1,500,712.0 1,670,786.9
2018 488 864.7881451 12415.217783 94675.596266 93279.265768 2018 135,274.3 327,561.9 5,089,819.8 719,003.4 1,553,351.7
2019 356 623.64145097 8857.3512952 94985.697388 94671.702721 2019 132,835.0 241,146.7 3,557,866.5 310,101.1 1,392,437.0
2020 259 453.71358454 6347.9665966 95106.093147 95212.311867 2020 96,427.4 169,927.9 2,509,384.7 120,395.8 540,609.1
2021 189 330.10024581 4565.4834634 95148.170719 95401.251417 2021 70,126.2 123,613.3 1,782,483.1 42,077.6 188,939.6

2022 138 240.1746203 3292.3047527 95161.408575 95460.69293 2022 51,068.4 89,925.6 1,273,178.7 13,237.9 59,441.5
2023 100 174.75335433 2337.817659 95165.157508 95477.52664 2023 37,592.2 65,421.3 954,487.1 3,748.9 16,833.7
2024 73 94746.897433 1699.4406997 95166.113195 95481.817932 2024 26,991.1 -94,572,144.1 638,377.0 955.7 4,291.3
2025 54 94747.263293 1235.4338411 95166.332495 95482.802644 2025 19,733.5 -365.9 464,006.9 219.3 984.7
2026 39 94747.321052 898.15448029 95166.351352 95483.006038 2026 14,427.4 -57.8 337,279.4 18.9 203.4
2027 28.680223644 652.98112187 95483.017562 2027 10,548.0 94,747,321.1 245,173.4 11.5
 TABEL DEPRESIASI CAPITAL EXPENDITURE

INVESTASI 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
TAHUN CAPITAL 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
US$ US$ US$ US$ US$ US$ US$ US$ US$ US$
2011 20,000,000.00 8,000,000.00 4,800,000.00 2,880,000.00 1,728,000.00 1,036,800.00
2012 0.00
2013 0.00
2014 0.00
2015 10,000,000.00 4,000,000.00 2,400,000.00 1,440,000.00 864,000.00
2016 30,000,000.00 12,000,000.00 7,200,000.00 4,320,000.00
2017 0.00
2018 0.00
2019 0.00
2020 0.00
2021 0.00
60,000,000 0 8,000,000 4,800,000 2,880,000 1,728,000 5,036,800 14,400,000 8,640,000 5,184,000

Catatan :
Depresiasi menggunakan metode Double Declining Balance (DDB)

Di = K*2R(1-2R)^(i-1)

Dimana :
K = Capital Cost
R = Depresiasi Rate
= 1/N = 0.20
N = Waktu Depresiasi = 5 Tahun
SIASI CAPITAL EXPENDITURE

10 11 Total
2020 2021 Depresiasi
US$ US$ US$

518,400.00
2,592,000.00 1,555,200.00

3,110,400 1,555,200 55,334,400

KEEKONOMIAN LAPANGAN
ASSUMPTION : PROJECT : ECONOMIC :
RECOVERABLE RESERVE : -82773108.12 STBO PERTAMINA SHARE BEFORE TAX : 67% Total NCF : 388,343,348
INVESTMENT : 72979456.80 USD GOVERNMENT SHARE BEFORE TAX : 33% NPV @ DF=12% : 307,977,259
CRUDE OIL PRICE : 105 USD/BBL INVESTMENT CREDIT : 0% ROR (Rate Of Return) : 68.00%
DISCOUNT RATE : 12% LIFTING COST : 9.75 USD/BBL PIR : 5.32
ESCALATION RATE : - DMO : 0% DPIR : 4.22
FTP : 5% DMO fee : 0% POT (Pay Out Time) : -1.20
MAX COST RECOVERY : 100% PROJECT LIFE : 15
INCOME TAX : 45%
1.00

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Y Time Annual Prod. INVESTMENT Depreciation Double Operating Cost Gross Revenue FTP GR - FTP Recoverable Cost Equity to be Split Government Pertamina Share DMO
e Declining Balance Share
a Capital Non Capital ( DDB ) ( Opex ) ( GR ) 5% UR CR REC ( ETS ) ( GS ) ( PS ) Gross DMO
r Tahun BOPY (US$) (US$) (US$) (US$) (US$) (US$) (US$) (US$) (US$) (US$) (US$) (US$) (US$) (US$)
0 2011 3458400.39454114 20,000,000 4,787,420 0 33,719,404 363132041.426819 18,156,602.07 344,975,439.36 38,506,824 38,506,824 324,625,218 106,390,072 218,235,145.77 0.00
1 2012 2426485.13102135 0 8,000,000 23,658,230 254780938.757242 12,739,046.94 242,041,891.82 4,787,420 36,445,650 36,445,650 218,335,289 71,555,461 146,779,827.88 0.00
2 2013 1716760.03338298 0 4,800,000 16,738,410 180259803.505212 9,012,990.18 171,246,813.33 0 21,538,410 21,538,410 158,721,393 52,018,080 106,703,313.55 0.00
3 2014 1222643.54696157 0 0 2,880,000 11,920,775 128377572.430965 6,418,878.62 121,958,693.81 0 14,800,775 14,800,775 113,576,798 37,222,751 76,354,046.74 0.00
4 2015 875210.165269223 10,000,000 2,048,009 1,728,000 8,533,299 91897067.3532684 4,594,853.37 87,302,213.99 0 12,309,308 12,309,308 79,587,759 26,083,455 53,504,303.60 0.00
5 2016 628978.516531029 30,000,000 6,144,028 5,036,800 6,132,541 66042744.2357581 3,302,137.21 62,740,607.02 2,048,009 19,361,377 19,361,377 46,681,367 15,298,978 31,382,389.16 0.00
6 2017 453385.058597667 0 14,400,000 4,420,504 47605431.152755 2,380,271.56 45,225,159.60 6,144,028 24,964,532 24,964,532 22,640,899 7,420,147 15,220,752.04 0.00
7 2018 327561.940364642 0 8,640,000 3,193,729 34394003.7382874 1,719,700.19 32,674,303.55 0 11,833,729 11,833,729 22,560,275 7,393,724 15,166,550.83 0.00
8 2019 241146.694124538 0 5,184,000 2,351,180 25320402.8830765 1,266,020.14 24,054,382.74 0 7,535,180 7,535,180 17,785,223 5,828,787 11,956,436.04 0.00
9 2020 169927.866431079 0 3,110,400 1,656,797 17842425.9752633 892,121.30 16,950,304.68 0 4,767,197 4,767,197 13,075,229 4,285,171 8,790,058.24 0.00
10 2021 123613.338734269 0 1,555,200 1,205,230 12979400.5670982 648,970.03 12,330,430.54 0 2,760,430 2,760,430 10,218,971 3,349,084 6,869,886.87 0.00
11 2022 89925.6255041737 0 4,665,600 876,775 9442190.67793824 472,109.53 8,970,081.14 0 5,542,375 5,542,375 3,899,816 1,278,094 2,621,721.39 0.00
12 2023 65421.2659697947 0 637,857 6869232.92682844 343,461.65 6,525,771.28 0 637,857 637,857 6,231,376 2,042,221 4,189,154.40 0.00
13 2024 -94572144.078965 0 -922,078,405 -9930075128.29133 -496,503,756.41 -9,433,571,371.88 0 0 -9,433,571,372 -496,503,756 0 0.00 0.00
-365.859630896011 -38415.2612440812
14 2025 0 -3,567 -1,920.76 -36,494.50 9,433,571,372 0 -36,494 -1,921 0 0.00 0.00
-57.7595110953553 -6064.7486650123
15 2026 0 -563 -303.24 -5,761.51 36,494 0 -5,762 -303 0 0.00 0.00
-82773108.12 60,000,000 12,979,457 60,000,000 -807,037,804 -8,691,176,353 -434,558,818 -8,256,617,535 -9,232,609,983 541,433,631 340,166,025 697,773,587 0
0 Check : 303,881,264 Total Expenses : -734,058,347
24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 Check : 1,037,939,611
Y Time Undiscounted Contractor Cash Flow Cumulatif Discount Factor Discounted Contractor Cash Flow Cumulatif Discounted SENSITIVITY :
e Cash In Cash Out Net Cash Flow Undiscounted (DF) Cash In Cash Out Net Cash Flow Contractor NCF 307,977,259 68.00%
a (TCS) (EXP) (NCF) Contractor NCF
(Undisc. NCF) 12% (TCS) (EXP) (NCF) (Disc. NCF) -2,144,497,439
r
 SUMMARY :
US$ Gross Income : -8,691,176,353 US$ ###
US$ :
Investment : 72,979,457 US$
Operating Cost : -807,037,804 US$
Net Contractor Take : 383,775,473 US$
Years Net Government Take : 654,164,139 US$
Years Total : 303,881,264 US$ ###

18 19 20 21 22 23
DMO Taxable Income Tax Net Contractor Take Net Government Take

DMO fee DMO ( TI ) 45% ( NCT ) ( NGT )

(US$) (US$) (US$) (US$) (US$) (US$)
0.00 0.00 218,235,145.77 98,205,815.60 120,029,330.17 204,595,887.41
0.00 0.00 146,779,827.88 66,050,922.55 80,728,905.34 137,606,383.39
0.00 0.00 106,703,313.55 48,016,491.10 58,686,822.45 100,034,570.73
0.00 0.00 76,354,046.74 34,359,321.03 41,994,725.70 71,582,072.14
0.00 0.00 53,504,303.60 24,076,936.62 29,427,366.98 50,160,392.06
0.00 0.00 31,382,389.16 14,122,075.12 17,260,314.04 29,421,052.86
0.00 0.00 15,220,752.04 6,849,338.42 8,371,413.62 14,269,485.61
0.00 0.00 15,166,550.83 6,824,947.87 8,341,602.96 14,218,671.86
0.00 0.00 11,956,436.04 5,380,396.22 6,576,039.82 11,209,182.79
0.00 0.00 8,790,058.24 3,955,526.21 4,834,532.03 8,240,697.25
0.00 0.00 6,869,886.87 3,091,449.09 3,778,437.78 6,440,532.74
0.00 0.00 2,621,721.39 1,179,774.62 1,441,946.76 2,457,869.07
0.00 0.00 4,189,154.40 1,885,119.48 2,304,034.92 3,927,340.66
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0 0 697,773,587 313,998,114 383,775,473 654,164,139

5.32 4.22 1.00

 Tabel B-2
Rencana Anggaran Dana Lapangan "X"
Lapangan "X",
1
DRILLING (DEEP WELL) 4 0 0 0 2 6
WORKOVER / KUPL (WELL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
PERIOD 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
NO
WORK ITEM UNIT COST (USD) COST (USD) COST (USD) COST (USD) COST (USD) COST (USD) COST (USD)

I. CAPITAL COST

1. DRILLING 5,000,000 20,000,000 0 0 0 10,000,000 30,000,000

Land Clearence
Material Tender
Rig Tender
Rig Mobilization
Drilling
Completion
Lifting Equipment

2. WORKOVER / KUPL 0 0 0 0 0 0

3. PRODUCTION
ESP
Sucker Rod
Well Test (BHP)
Well Treatment
Well Repair
Well Services

4 PRODUCTION FACILITIES
Block Station
Water Disposal Line
 Storage Polution
Water Pump Unit
Pipe Line for New Well (6562 ft)
Oil and Water Tank Unit
Transportation and Delivery

SUB TOTAL CAPITAL 20,000,000 0 0 0 10,000,000 30,000,000

II. NONCAPITAL COST

1. DRILLING 1,015,407 4,061,628 0 0 0 2,030,814 6,092,442

Land Clearence 162,698 650,792
Material Tender
Rig Tender
Rig Mobilization
Drilling
Completion
Lifting Equipment

2. WORKOVER / KUPL 40,000 0 0 0 0 0 0

3. GEOLOGICAL, GEOPHYSICAL AND

ENGINEERING STUDY
Maintenance Fee Sofwares 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kompatibilitas Tes 0 0
Field Test ASP 0 0
GGR Study 75,000 75,000
Core and Log Analysis
3D Seismic 150 km 0 0
Amdal Study 0 0

4. PRODUCTION
ESP 600 0 0 0 0 0 0
 Sucker Rod
Well Test (BHP) 8,598 0 0 0 0 17,195 51,586
Well Treatment 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Well Repair 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Well Services 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pipe Line for New Well 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Abandon Well 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

5 PRODUCTION FACILITIES
Block Station
Water Disposal Line
Storage Polution
Water Pump Unit
Pipe Line for New Well
Water Tank and Pump Unit
Oil Tank and Water Tank Unit
Transportation and Delivery

SUB TOTAL NONCAPITAL 4,787,420 0 0 0 2,048,009 6,144,028

III. GENERAL AND ADMINISTRATION 0 600,000 0 0 0 0 0

Finance & Administration
Technical Services
Transportation Cost
Salary & Personnel Expenditure
Community Development

TOTAL COST 25,387,420 0 0 0 12,048,009 36,144,028

 0 0 0 0 0 12
0 0 0 0 0 0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
TOTAL
COST (USD) COST (USD) COST (USD) COST (USD) COST (USD)

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 60,000,000

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 12,979,457

0 0 0 0 0 600,000

0 0 0 0 0 73,579,457
 Grafik Contractor NCF

120,000,000

100029330.175
100,000,000
93516325.336

80,000,000
Contractor NCF (US $)

63486822.453
60,000,000

44874725.705

40,000,000

28915441.224

21155366.978
20,000,000 16981602.958
11760039.820
7944932.030
5333637.778

0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
-5654876.760

-20,000,000
Year
 Grafik Kumulatif Nilai UangLayer III-B, Skenario II

350,000,000

300,000,000

250,000,000
Kumulatif Discounted NCF, US$

200,000,000

150,000,000

100,000,000

50,000,000

0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 Time, Tahun 5
4.5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10
 Tabel B-6
Analisa Sensitivitas pada LapisanX
OIL PROD. OIL PRICE INVESTMENT LIFTING COST POT
SENSITIVITAS (STB) (USD) (USD) (USD) NPV @12% (USD) ROR PIR DPIR (YEAR)
85% -70,357,142 105.00 72,979,456.800 9.75 153586145.000 62.70% 3.21 1.93 0.89
100% -82,773,108 105.00 72,979,456.800 9.75 169833620.000 68.00% 4.27 2.33 0.88
115% -95,189,074 105.00 72,979,456.800 9.75 ### 180362835.000 73.30% 5.36 3.10 0.70
85% -82,773,108 89.25 72,979,456.800 9.75 138207680.000 75.53% 3,52 1,89 0.80
100% -82,773,108 105.00 72,979,456.800 9.75 169833620.000 68.00% 4.27 2.33 0.88
115% -82,773,108 120.75 72,979,456.800 9.75 201459560.000 60.47% 5.03 2.76 0.72
85% -82,773,108 105.00 62,032,538.280 9.75 188286132.000 72.35% 5.80 2.98 0.52
100% -82,773,108 105.00 72,979,456.800 9.75 169833620.000 68.00% 4.27 2.33 0.88
115% -82,773,108 105.00 83,926,375.320 9.75 147532851.000 63.65% 4.01 2.20 0.68
85% -82,773,108 105.00 72,979,456.800 8.29 172765295.000 70.60% 4.34 2.37 0.86
100% -82,773,108 105.00 72,979,456.800 9.75 169833620.000 68.00% 4.27 2.33 0.88
115% -82,773,108 105.00 72,979,456.800 11.21 166901946.000 65.40% 4.20 2.29 0.90
 Grafik Sensitivitas ( ROR vs Sensitivity )

80%

OIL PRICE
75%

OIL PRODUCTION
INVESTMENT

LIFTING COST
70%
ROR@ DR=12%

LIFTING COST
65%

INVESTMENT
OIL PRODUCTION

OIL PRICE
60%

OIL PRODUCTION OIL PRICE

INVESTMENT LIFTING COST

55%
80% 85% 90% 95% 100% 105% 110% 115% 120%

Sensitivity
 Grafik Sensitivitas (NPV Vs Sensitivity)

240000000

220000000

OIL PRICE
200000000
NPV @ DR=12%, US$

INVESTMENT

180000000 OIL PRODUCTION

LIFTING COST

LIFTING COST

160000000
OIL PRODUCTION

INVESTMENT

OIL PRICE 140000000

120000000 OIL PRODUCTION OIL PRICE

INVESTMENT LIFTING COST

100000000
80% 90% 100% 110% 120%

Sensitivity
Tax = 45%
Tax = 45%
 Tabel A-1
Profil Annual Production ( Prediksi ) Lapisan X

Cumulatif Production
SKENARIO I SKENARIO IISKENARIO IIISKENARIO IV
Year
MBBL BBL BBL BBL
2007 84331 84331 84331 84331
2008 84751 84751 84751 84751
2009 85213 85213 85213 85213
2010 85248 85248 85248 85248
2011 85511 85511 85511 85511
2012 85734 85734 85734 85734
2013 85925 85925 85925 85925
2014 87747 87330 88165 86912
2015 89541 89483 89636 88382
2016 91584 91961 92456 90055
2017 94242 94449 93957 91726
PREDICTION

PREDICTION
2018 95515.7152 95641.0318 94675.5963 93279.2658
2019 96064.9401 96155.1923 94985.6974 94671.7027
2020 96278.1749 96354.8135 95106.0931 95212.3119
2021 96352.6991 96424.5798 95148.1707 95401.2514
2022 96376.1449 96446.5288 95161.4086 95460.6929
2023 96382.7847 96452.7446 95165.1575 95477.5266
2024 96384.4773 96454.3292 95166.1132 95481.8179
2025 96384.8657 96454.6928 95166.3325 95482.8026
2026 96384.927 96454.7502 95166.3514 95483.006
95483.0176

2007 1008965
2008 1014766 2023731
2009 1020062 3043792
2010 1022646 4066438
2011 1024730 5091168
2012 1027614 6118782
2013 1030075 7148857
2014 1043611 8192468
2015 1064126 9256593
2016 1086549 10343142
2017 1118087 11461229
2018 1140176.51 12601406
2019 1150241.93 13751648
2020 1154374.37 14906022
2021 1155903 16061925
2022 1156412.4 17218338
2023 1156565.36 18374903
2024 1156606.74 19531510
2025 1156616.82 20688127
2026 674694.338 21362821
1
rediksi ) Lapisan X

Gross Production Per Year

SKENARIO I SKENARIO II SKENARIO III SKENARIO IV
Year
BOPY BOPY BOPY BOPY thn 2006 83733.948
2007 597,328.7 597,328.7 597,328.7 597,328.7
2008 419,802.8 419,802.8 419,802.8 419,802.8
2009 461,625.6 461,625.6 461,625.6 461,625.6
2010 35,547.9 35,547.9 35,547.9 35,547.9
2011 262,578.2 262,578.2 262,578.2 262,578.2
2012 222,945.3 222,945.3 222,945.3 222,945.3
2013 190,873.6 190,873.6 190,873.6 190,873.6
2014 1,822,599.2 1,404,962.1 2,240,236.3 987,324.9
2015 1,793,958.4 2,153,803.6 1,471,276.3 1,470,353.1
2016 2,043,135.6 2,477,235.9 2,819,718.2 1,672,799.1
2017 2,657,934.1 2,488,242.8 1,500,712.0 1,670,786.9
2018 1,273,437.9 1,192,137.4 719,003.4 1,553,351.7
2019 549,224.9 514,160.5 310,101.1 1,392,437.0
2020 213,234.8 199,621.2 120,395.8 540,609.1
2021 74,524.2 69,766.4 42,077.6 188,939.6
2022 23,445.8 21,948.9 13,237.9 59,441.5
2023 6,639.8 6,215.9 3,748.9 16,833.7
2024 1,692.6 1,584.6 955.7 4,291.3
2025 388.4 363.6 219.3 984.7
2026 61.3 57.4 18.9 203.4