Global NEET report:

NEET status duration

Luis Pinedo Caro

Youth Employment Programme, ILO∗

January 1, 2020

1 Introduction
The fact that young NEETs are a heterogeneous group is out of doubt. The existence of non-market
activities, differing gender roles and local labour markets’ idiosyncrasies make cross-country compar-
isons of NEET rates a rather futile exercise. In this sense, the 7-fold NEET classification proposed
by Eurofound and analyzed in chapter 2 constitutes a definite improvement in terms of clarifying the
nature of NEETs; its multiple disaggregation criteria, combining an individual’s willingness to work,
job-seeking intensity and the reasons not to look forward having a paid job, provide policy makers a
much more nuanced picture.
In spite of its positive features, the classification used in Eurofound (2016) does not always provide
a useful breakdown of NEETs inasmuch there might exist strong within-category heterogeneity. A
particularly problematic group is the one comprising short-term unemployed people, where individuals
with unemployment spells of less than a year are included. What in principle looks like a sensible
criteria turns out being not-so practical in reality. The ILO classifies someone as unemployed if, on
top of not having a job and being available to take on one, he or she has taken any steps towards
finding one. However, if this definition were to be strictly applied to unemployment spells the number
of job-seekers who have actively searched for a job each and every week of the last year would be
fairly small. This is actually happens in Mexico, where we can test this assumption thanks to its
Labour Force Survey specifically asking respondents to measure the unemployment spell since the last
job-search break. As a result of having an unpractical definition of long-term unemployment we incur
a risk of downplaying the problems faced a significant share of individuals that have been engaged in
fruitless job-seeking activities for a long while.
Some of the negative effects of classifying long-term NEETs as short-term unemployed, including
inappropriate designs of active labour market policies, find themselves amplified in the aftermath
∗ E-mail: pinedo@ilo.org

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of economic crisis. This is due to an increase in the number of discouraged job-seekers that may
intermittently be classified as short-term unemployed even though their out-of-work spells may be
counted in years.
Another downside of Eurofound’s 7-fold typology is the existence of an obscure group labeled ‘other’.
This group, which is created for completeness and expected to take on a small share of NEET, does
a good job tackling observed heterogeneity among European NEETs -see Weir (2003) for a comment
on a few EU countries. However, ‘other’ NEETs comprise more than half of male NEETs in countries
like Russia, the Republic of Korea and Cote d’Ivoire (see Figure 1) and is by no means marginal in
other countries outside of the European Union. On top of the problems brought to policy-makers by a
high share of unidentified NEETs we also find that this group is highly heterogeneous is all countries
under analysis. For instance, when analyzing future employability some individuals classified as ‘other’
NEETs are nearly as successful in securing jobs as currently employed young people while others find
themselves stuck in long-term out-of-employment spells.

Figure 1: NEET rates disaggregated by categories, latest year available

(a) Women

(b) Men

Source: Household and labour force surveys and authors’ own calculations. Notes: The figure shows the age group
and sex-specific share of each of the 7 NEET statuses. It should be noted that the 100 mark corresponds to the total
15-24 years old male/female population in the country (including those working and/or studying). The 2 letter codes
correspond to (in order from left to right) Brazil, Italy, Cote d’Ivoire, Mexico, Russia, Republic of Korea, Spain, Sweden,
Turkey and the United Kingdom.

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A problematic split of unemployed individuals and the existence of an excessively large leftover
category are not the only instances where the 7-fold classification could be improved. More generally,
there is, to a smaller or larger extent, labour market attachment heterogeneity within all the 7 categories
of said classification. In this chapter we propose to fill in this information gap by using a measure
of attachment, the time spent as a NEET, to further subdivide each of the seven categories. The
idea behind using NEET status duration has to do with the diminishing value that a person outside
employment has in the eyes of prospective employers.1 It is assumed throughout this chapter that a
person loses skills if not used, thus, making outside options in the labour market less appealing as time
goes by and increasing the chances of remaining a NEET.
It should be noted that the Eurofound classification already uses a time-related measure when
distinguishing between short-term and long-term unemployed individuals. Still, it can be argued that
NEET and unemployment spells carry different information with respect to the chances of finding a
job in the near future; after all, it is the NEET duration spell, not the ILO-defined unemployment
spell that is observed by employers. The preference of Eurofound towards unemployment duration is
probably related to the historical importance given to this measure, something that can be observed
in the literature concerning out-of-employment spells. There is a vast collection of articles providing
statistics for and dealing with the effects of unemployment duration on a number of outcomes but the
same cannot be said about NEET status duration.2
Reasons for the relative shortage of articles dealing with the time spent as a NEET include the
novelty of the concept itself. Even though the term originated in the United Kingdom with references
available since the beginning of the new millennium3 it was not until the onset of the financial crisis
where the term spread out and started to be utilized within an international context. Another reason
has to do with the lack of available data, longitudinal or cross-section where NEET spells can be
built. There are some studies for developed countries, though; for example, the work of Carcillo
et al. (2015) relies on household surveys to measure NEET spells for OECD members and on the EU-
SILC4 to analyze and categorize transition paths. Another example is Samoilenko & Carter (2015)
which studies the impact of long-term NEET spells in New Zealand. In their paper, the authors rely
on matching for the creation of a control group, finding that longer spells are associated to worse
outcomes in the short-term, although the effects tend to vanish in the long-run. These results are
consistent with the results found in this chapter with regards duration and future employability in the
United Kingdom, Russia and the Republic of Korea.
Even though the term NEET is now widespread, it is still in the United Kingdom where richer
databases regarding the duration of the NEET status -including longitudinal data- can be found. One
1 It could also be argued that those with longer out-of-work spells had worse prospects from the outset, however this
theory seems to be ruled out by Abraham et al. (2016) in favour of the damaging effect of the spell itself.
2 A non-conclusive but certainly informative Google Scholar search for the term ‘unemployment duration’ yields

955,000 references. Searches for ‘NEET duration’ or ‘time spent as NEET’ yield -each- around 9,000.
3 See the title of the British Cabinet Office (1999) report where the only missing part is the NEET acronym or the

article by Bynner & Parsons (2002) explicitly mentioning NEETs.

4 European Union Survey on Income and Living Conditions.

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such example is the use of the Longitudinal Study of Young People in the publication of the British
Department for Education (2011), finding that 1 in 3 between the ages of 16 and 19 had been a
NEET at some point. Another example for the UK is Coles et al. (2010), which explores an often
overlooked dimension of the NEET status: its financial cost. These authors estimate the resource
cost of 16-18 NEETs (income not generated plus subsidies from government) in the range of £21-76
billion. Unfortunately, this is an area that is not explored in this chapter due to its complexity in an
international setting albeit it is worth keeping it in mind when going through the following sections.
In this chapter we propose to expand the available knowledge with regards NEET spells in several
countries of the world. In addition, we propose to use the time spent as a NEET as an alterna-
tive/complement of the Eurofound 7-fold classification. This chapter also analyzes the consequences of
NEET spells from two different perspectives; the first one looks at the prevalence of the NEET status
retrospectively, i.e. from the point of view of current NEET adults. This is done with the objective
of understanding whether the NEET phenomenon is temporary or not and which subgroups are more
likely to carry the status forward. At last, the chapter also looks at NEET spells as predictors of future
employability with the help of three panel datasets. The analysis includes a performance test of the
Eurofound 7-fold classification and the NEET status duration as predictors of future employability.

2 An alternative way of classifying NEETs

As it is justified in the introduction to this chapter, the classical way5 of breaking down NEETs into
unemployed, those with family responsibilities, disabled people and discouraged job-seekers may be
misleading and/or at times uninformative. In order to provide a more accurate depiction of NEETs’
current needs and future chances of finding employment we provide statistics on NEET spells for 10
countries, namely Brazil, Italy, Cote d’Ivoire, Mexico, Russia, the Republic of Korea, Spain, Sweden,
Turkey and the United Kingdom. This group of countries is selected so as to keep regional variety
given the existing data constraints.

2.1 An statistical overview

Data issues. The duration of any economic status, including being a NEET, does not get on well
with cross-sectional datasets. Cross-sections typically provide a snapshot of the population under study
in a given point in time but rarely get into time-related dimensions. The European Union Labour Force
Survey constitutes a remarkable exception6 to this trend by allowing researchers to easily calculate
the time a person have spent as a NEET. Unfortunately, this kind of recall modules7 are rather scarce
5 Eurofound uses this classification in a report from 2016 but the classification can be found in articles as early as
Furlong (2006).
6 See Carcillo et al. (2015) for an article that uses this database for studying NEET duration.
7 A survey module that asks whether a person has ever worked or when was the last time the person worked, among

other related questions.

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and only four cross-sections outside the EU, the ones of Turkey, Mexico, Cote d’Ivoire and Brazil were
selected.
Ideally, analysis involving a time dimension are best carried out using longitudinal/panel datasets.
The availability of such datasets is increasing, although they are still missing in many developing
countries and not as timely as would be desired in several emerging countries.8 Moreover, the added
complexity of longitudinal databases increases cross-country studies’ cost substantially. In this section
we also rely on panel datasets from the Republic of Korea and Russia as simpler options were not
available.
The mentioned databases are used to build a harmonized 7-fold NEET classification which include
short-term and long-term unemployed, re-entrants, discouraged job-seekers, people with family re-
sponsibilities, people with disabilities and other NEETs. In addition, for this chapter, we also build a
variable that measures NEET spells. The spells for NEETs with previous work experience are defined
since the time they left their last job. In the event of an individual lacking previous work experience,
the end of their studies is used to signal the starting point. It should be noted that although all surveys
used in this section contain information about the date when the last job was left, they rarely ask when
a person’s studies were finished. This forces us to impute the start of the NEET spell of those without
prior experience using the theoretical age at which an individual could have finished his/her highest
level of educational attainment. The imputation is designed on a country by country basis maximizing
the use of the available information and taking into consideration the educational system in place.

Looking at NEET categories from another angle. The use of spells allows us to shed more light
on the nature of NEETs. First of all, we can confirm that the 7-fold NEET classification is sensible
and, on average, its categories reflect decreasing levels of labour market attachment -see Figure 2.
For instance, it can observed that the average time spent as a NEET is much lower for short-term
unemployed people and re-entrants than for other type of NEETs.
NEETs placed in the ‘other’ category tend to exhibit an intermediate level of labour market at-
tachment although they have a high degree of spell variability as measured by the standard deviation.
In most countries, their spells are similar to the average NEET spell held by discouraged workers,
meaning many of them may just be waiting for the right opportunity or the right moment to go back
to the labour force. Being able to confirm this extent would turn out crucial in countries like the
Republic of Korea where 78.9 per cent of its NEETs belong to the unclassified category. Fortunately,
it is precisely in the Republic of Korea where, thanks to its rich database and the wider set of available
out-of-work activities, we can further study this issue -see the Box titled ‘understanding the Korean
youth’.
It is also worth noticing that around 25-30 per cent of short-term unemployed individuals are long-
term NEETs, i.e. it has been at least a year since they stopped working or studying, and this result is
8 For example there are publicly available panel datasets in Nigeria, Ethiopia, Uganda or Tanzania, however, they
take place every 2-3 years, making unfeasible the estimation of short-term impacts of NEET status duration.

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fairly consistent across most countries under analysis. This confirms that short-term unemployment
is not a synonym of things going well for young people. In some cases we may deal with young people
who just started looking for a job after spending some time away from the labour market and may
have a set of depreciated skills. In other cases we may be facing switchers who intermittently look for
a job without much success. In either case their treatment policy-wise should not differ much from
the treatment offered to long-term unemployed individuals.

Figure 2: Average NEET status duration by type of NEET and by country

Source: Household and labour force surveys and authors’ own calculations. Notes: The figure shows the age-group
specific average NEET duration of young people aged 15-24 for seven categories of NEETs and for 10 countries. An
unweighted average is provided (red triangle) for reference.

The share of disabled NEETs is modest in all countries under analysis yet its particularly high
degree of vulnerability calls for a comment on the wide differences among this group’s NEET spells
across countries. A closer look at these differences show the existence of a negative correlation between
the income level of the country and the NEET spell of its disabled young people. In the case of those
living in the emerging and developing economies shown in Figure 2 it is clear that they never joined
the labour market and, thus, became a NEET as soon as they finished their compulsory education.
It is not clear, though, whether the shorter NEET spells found in developed countries are just due
to a longer duration of their studies or whether a better integration into the labour market is also
at stake. In order to test these competing hypothesis we look at the NEET spells of disabled people
aged 25-34, i.e. ten year older than the cohort under analysis, and we measure the increase in their
spells compared to the younger cohort’s ones. Keeping in mind that the maximum increase in the spell
should be around 10 years, we find much larger increases in Cote d’Ivoire (8.7 years), Mexico (5.8) and
Turkey (4.8) than among other developed countries. In fact, among high-income countries, with the
negative exception of Italy (5.7 years), the increase in the spells is between 3 to 4 years, suggesting
the existence of policies for better integrating the disabled youth into the labour market.
In addition to issues pertaining to specific NEET categories, we find that NEET spells from Cote

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d’Ivoire stand out from the rest, with an average NEET duration of 10.1 years. Two factors come
together to explain this particular case; on the one hand young Ivorians spend less time in school, with
only 31.9 per cent of the 15-24 population being enrolled in an educational institution. This is much
lower than the rate found in the UK, 59.2 per cent, or in Turkey, 56.0 per cent. On the other hand, the
strong presence of non-market activities, most notably subsistence agriculture, increases the number
of individuals without prior work9 experience -especially among women- and who started their NEET
spell as soon as they left school.

Box: Understanding the Korean youth

Back in 2016 the Republic of Korea had 0.93 million 15-24 year old NEETs and a moderate NEET
rate at 13.9 per cent. Surprisingly, 76.2 per cent of these NEETs were unclassified when using the
Eurofound 7-fold classification and even though their NEET spells and their employment prospects are
better than those held by disabled NEETs or NEETs with family responsibilities, little else is known.
In order to shed some light at this large and obscure group of NEETs we rely on the Korean Labour
and Income Panel Study (KLIPS). This panel is, together with similar surveys carried out in Germany,
Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States one of the few annual longitudinal datasets that
were conceived prior to the 2000’s. The survey, which became nationally representative10 in 2009
thanks to a sample boost, puts emphasis on labour market-related topics including a rich out-of-work
questionnaire. This set of questions are the ones exploited with the objective of finding out what the
Korean youth classified as ‘other’ NEETs are actually doing.

Figure 3: Share and status duration by NEET category in the Republic of Korea, 2016

Source: KLIPS 2016 and authors’ own calculations. Notes: The figure shows the age group-specific share and average
NEET duration of young people aged 15-24 for 10 categories of NEETs in the Republic of Korea.

The analysis of the last available wave of this panel (2016) allows for the creation of 5 new NEET
subgroups, with NEET shares and average NEET spells available in Figure 3. According to this reclas-
sification NEETs previously unclassified are now undertaking preparations to find a job, preparations
9 The International Classification of Status in Employment of 1993, ICSE-93, does not recognize own-use production
-including subsistence workers- as being employed.
10 It was originally conceived to represent urban areas. The migration of individuals to rural areas led to its expansion.

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to enter a school, waiting for the military service, resting -as in getting time off- and a new residual cat-
egory, arguably much smaller than the original one. It should be noted that in all the above-mentioned
cases respondents explicitly stated that they did not search for a job and that they were not interested
in working at the moment.
Ironically, and in spite of relatively long spells, some of the original ‘other’ NEETs are actually
quite active in the sense of taking steps that should allow them to find a job in the future or have their
skills improved. Overall, the particular nature of NEETs in the Republic of Korea is interpreted as
the result of an extremely high competition for high skilled jobs. In 2016, roughly two thirds of those
aged 25-29 hold tertiary degrees, this figure, which is only comparable to those of the United States
and Canada, may lead young people to take on extra efforts so as to access the desired job. These
efforts, paired with the high competition11 for university admissions might also explain why a sizeable
number of young people claim to be resting.
Ultimately, only a small share of Korean ‘other’ NEET will face the complications that individuals
with similar NEET spells would endure in Europe. However, it is important to remember that this
group’s success in the labour market is by no means top of its class. The fact that they need extra
preparation for accessing educational institutions and/or jobs sends mixed signals. After all, the more
successful ones in terms of future employability are those who are currently studying and/or already
employed.

2.2 Short vs. long-term NEETs

The analysis in the previous sub-section shows that NEET spells not only vary significantly across
categories but also that there is strong within category heterogeneity. In light of these findings we
propose to complement the 7-fold classification with a time dimension, namely the NEET spell. The
objective is to achieve a more accurate degree of NEETs’ labour market attachment and, as a result,
allow for better tailored policies targeting NEETs.
An example of this multi-criteria (NEET spell together with search intensity, existence of disabilities
or household activities) classification can be found in Figure 4 which shows the share of long-term (+1
year) NEETs in each category -and also short-term NEETs if one starts counting from the upper-part
of the graph. At a first glance it can be observed the existence of a common pattern whereby the share
of long-term NEETs is correlated with the average NEET spell. However, the existence of non-trivial
shares of short-term (less than a year) NEETs even in categories associated to low labour market
attachment can also be attested. Moreover, the figure also shows high variability between countries,
indicating the importance of adopting policies that take into account local labour market and social
conditions.
The existence of long-term NEETs among the short-term unemployed -which is one the justifications
put forward in the chapter opening for analyzing NEET spells- is now evident thank to Figure 4 as
11 Media is often receptive of these issues, see, for example, https://www.theatlantic.com/education/archive/2016/11/south-
korean-seniors-have-been-preparing-for-today-since-kindergarten/508031/.

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well. With the exception of Cote d’Ivoire, a special case already analyzed, between 22.9 (Spain) to
34.1 (Mexico) per cent12 of those termed short-term unemployed have actually been away from schools
and jobs longer than expected. These are high-risk NEETs that would have remained hidden and
unidentified otherwise.

Figure 4: Share of long-term (+1y) NEETs, by type

Source: Household and labour force surveys and authors’ own calculations. Notes: The figure shows country, age-group
and NEET type-specific share of individuals who have been a NEET for more than a year for those aged 15-24.

A glaring example for the need of NEET spells is given by the ‘discouraged’ and ‘other’ categories.
Not only these two categories show the highest cross-country variability but also the share of long-term
NEET lack a clear pattern, i.e. a country having a small share of long-term NEET among discouraged
job-seekers tell little about the share among the members of the ‘other’ group. In contrast, some
regularities can still be found at the country level; for instance, Spanish NEETs’ spells are the most
homogeneous across categories. This regularity should be framed within the financial crisis context,
though, which in the case of Spain caused a massive transfer of inactive NEETs into unemployment
as a result of many households being left without an income earner. In sum, the case of Spain may be
explained by a tight labour market paired with heterogeneous, periodic pikes in the need to find a job
which, together, have blurred boundaries between NEET statuses.
Overall, this way of classifying NEETs generates more succinct information as far as labour market
attachment is concerned. However, NEET spells can also be used to summarized the general state of
NEETs in a given country as it is reflected in the right-hand side column of Figure 4. According to the
average share of long-term NEETs, there is a divide between high income countries -with roughly half
of their 15-24 NEETs having been so for a year of longer- and the other economies -with Italy being
included in this group- where the share of long-term NEETs goes up to, roughly, 70 per cent. Several
reasons might co-exist to explain cross-country differences but one factor is common to all countries,
12 Brazil should not be counted since information on the unemployment spell is not available for the country. All
unemployed are shown as short-term unemployment for convenience, hence the higher percentage.

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female labour supply -or the lack thereof. We invite the reader interested in a gender perspective
of NEETs to section 3 of this chapter, not only to understand how gender changes’ young NEETs
composition but also to understand the differing impact overtime.

3 Once a NEET, forever a NEET?

High NEET rates among young people are associated to negative outcomes in terms of lower earnings,
depression and detachment for the society. These negative consequences may just be representing the
tip of the iceberg, though. An often overlooked dimension of the NEET rate is its evolution as the
current young cohort grows up and its members become adults. Does young people’s NEET rates
increase or decrease overtime? In other words, do young people end up finding their way no matter
how strong is the storm or are there scarring effects as pointed out by O’Higgins (2012)?

3.1 Where do you see yourself in 10 years? As a NEET, thanks

Two approaches can be followed in order to find out about the long-term effects of being a NEET;
one possibility is to rely on longitudinal datasets, the gold standard inasmuch they track the same
people overtime. Unfortunately these datasets are scarce, working with them time consuming and the
number of observations rather low, thus, not ideal for drawing the overall picture. Still, three case
studies carried out with the panel datasets can be found in Section 4 of this chapter. These case studies
are meant to analyze in detail the role of NEET spells on short-term and long-term employability in
Russia, the Republic of Korea and the United Kingdom.

Figure 5: NEET rates before and after the crisis, same cohort, by sex

(a) Men (b) Women

Source: LFM v1.5 and authors’ own calculations. Notes: The figures show NEET rates for young people aged 15-24
before the financial crisis and after ten years when they are 25-34. The data is drawn from two independent cross-sections
of 64 countries with roughly 10 years difference between each other, thus, forming a pseudo-panel.

A second possibility -and the one used in this section- is to rely on cross-sections taken at two

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different points in time and analyze them as a pseudo-panel. We collected micro-datasets from a year
close to 2006 and another one close to 2016 for 65 countries13 covering 84.6 per cent of the world’s
population. Then, the NEET rates (see Figure 5) of those aged 15-24 in 2006 and the ones of those
aged 25-34 in 2016 are shown in a scatter plot, separately for men and women.
Results show that there is a positive -and statistically significant- relationship between NEET
rates when young (15-24) and 10 years later for either men or women. However, the strength and the
significance of the estimates differ by sex. On the one hand, female NEET rates when young have a 1
to 1 relationship with the same group’s NEET rate after 10 year, i.e. for every woman who is a NEET
when young there will be a NEET woman in the future. This relationship is not only statistically
weaker for men, but also quantitatively less worrisome, with NEET rates being expected to fall by a
third after 10 years.
Scarring effects, thus, seem to exist, although women are more at risk than men. Potential causes
for the higher NEET rates’ retention among women are gender roles and the number and type of
available opportunities in the labour market. With respect to the former, early marriage paired with
higher shares of housework and childcare limit both, the acquisition of work experience at an early age
as well as the time available for work outside the house. Job opportunities may also differ by gender,
specially in emerging and developing countries. A less developed services sector, informality and entry
barriers to certain professions are found to be deterrents of female participation in the labour force.
We advice the interested reader to follow the discussion in Chapter 3 where the importance of the
above-mentioned determinants is assessed in countries selected due to the high female NEET rates
showcased.

3.2 A retrospective look

Even though the analysis carried out with the pseudo-panels reveals a relationship between young-age
and adulthood NEET rates two things remain unclear; the first one is whether adult NEETs are made
of the same men and women who were NEETs when young. The extent to which this is the case is
analyzed in Section 4 of this chapter with actual panel datasets. The second one, which is the purpose
of this section, has to do with the number of transitions in and out the NEET status, i.e. have adult
NEETs been continuously a NEET since they were young or have they been employed at some point?
In order to answer the second question we propose to take the perspective of adult (35-39) NEETs
in 2016 and analyze (1) the age at which the became NEETs and (2) whether they have previous work
experience or not. This exercise, which is carried out for a set of countries similar to the one used
in Section 2, is shown in Figure 6. The graphs show the sex-specific percentage points of the 35-39
year-old NEET rate classified by the time at which they became a NEET, with different coloring to
distinguish those with previous work experience (blue) from those without it (green).

13 The primary criteria for choosing the countries is population size, thus, little bias in terms of income level is expected.

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Figure 6: NEET status’ starting age for 35-39 year-old, by gender, selected countries

(a) Ivory Coast

(b) Brazil

(c) Mexico

(d) Turkey

Source: Household and labour force surveys and authors’ own calculations. Notes: The figure shows country, sex and
age-group specific percentage point of NEETs with respect the relevant population, i.e. if we sum the percentages of
women in Brazil we obtain the 35-39 year-old female NEET rate in the country. The NEET rate is split by the age at
which the person became a NEET for the last time. In addition, the graphs also shows whether the person had previous
work experience or not before becoming a NEET.

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(continuation from Figure 2)

(e) Italy

(f) Spain

(g) United Kingdom

(h) Sweden

Source: Household and labour force surveys and authors’ own calculations. Notes: The figure shows country and sex-
specific shares of 35-39 year old NEETs by the age at which they became a NEET, i.e. if we sum the percentages of
women in Brazil we obtain the 35-39 year-old female NEET rate in the country. The splits refer to the age at which
the person became a NEET. In addition, the graphs also shows whether the person had previous work experience or not
before becoming a NEET.

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Let’s take Turkish women aged 35-39 as an example; the NEET rate of this group is 55.7 per cent
and according to Figure 6(d) 6 percentage points (10.7 per cent of this group’s NEETs) became a
NEET right after quitting their studies when they were between 5 to 9 years old. Women like the ones
analyzed in the Turkish example are actually the ones who take on the largest share of time spent as
a NEET, a similar finding to the one noted in Carcillo et al. (2015). This is related to -the lack of-
female labour force participation; as such, countries where higher percentages of women are involved
in paid employment (UK, Spain, Sweden) showcase the opposite result.
The situation for male NEETs is quite different, not only because their NEET rates are much lower
than for adult women, but also because most men are short-term NEETs, with as many of them being
unemployed as economically inactive. This finding actually explains the decrease overtime in male
NEET rates shown in Figure 5 as a result of men having a higher degree of labour market attachment,
thus, making them more likely to exit the NEET status periodically.
On a country by country basis we can distinguish adult NEET pathways based on the countries’
income level. For example, in Cote d’Ivoire adult NEETs are characterized by having left education
at an early stage to perform non-market activities. As we fast-forward economic development, women
(and to a lower extent men) tend to spend longer time in education, delay marriage and face better job
prospects, all of this contribute to women permanently becoming a NEET at a later age, sometimes
with previous work experience. At last, high-income countries -with the exception of Italy, where
women’s access to the labour market is not particularly high- tend to exhibit gender convergence with
more similar pathways for both men and women. In addition, they display higher shares of short-term
NEETs as well due to women being more attached to the labour force.
In sum, young female NEET are more likely to remain NEET in the long-run than men. The reasons
why this is so are varied, including culture,14 family background, opportunities in the labour market
and the educational system. Some of these elements are analyzed in chapter 3 of this report, including
the effects of formal work arrangements, children and marriage on women’s chances of remaining
employed. Still, the fact that men end up somehow employed in the long-run does not mean NEET
spells are innocuous; foregone earnings due to a higher number of NEET spells -even if short- and more
precarious working conditions are a likely consequence of early NEET spells paired with the added
cultural pressure to be employed.

4 Evidence from three panel datasets

The financial crisis that started in 2008 notably affected European Union labour markets. These
countries’ tighter fiscal policies paired with institutional characteristics that tended to protect tenured
workers resulted in young people facing a higher burden in terms of employment loses and a much
harder time accessing paid employment. This uneven effects prompted concerns among policy makers
inasmuch long out-of-work spells were suspected to damage young job-seekers’ working life -see ILO
14 See, ‘
for instance, Çigdem Gedikli (2014) for an analysis of the role of cultural values on Turkish female labour supply.

14
Global NEET report NEET status duration

(2012).
In response to increasing unemployment rates among young people, the European Commission
launched the Youth Guarantee. This initiative is meant to provide an opportunity for young people
who have been a NEET for at least 4 months so as to increase youth employment rates, see Commission
(2014). The 4 months time-frame, which is chosen so as to minimize scarring effects of long NEET
spells, does not seem to be based on hard evidence, though. Implementation costs aside, the four-
month time-frame could be optimal if the negative effects of being a NEET are increasing exponentially
with the time spent out of work or educational activities. However, the effects of NEET spells could
increase proportionally or they could even be smaller as time mounts up.
The lack of hard-evidence with respect the long-term effects of NEET spells among young people
is not surprising. As it is mentioned in the introduction to this chapter, the measurement of these
effects is highly demanding in terms of data availability. Filling this knowledge gap is, precisely, the
objective of this section, which uses three long-term panel datasets for the Republic of Korea, Russia
and the United Kingdom.

Data issues. The period covered by the analysis is 2009-2016. Although the starting point of these
panel datasets goes back to the 90’s, attrition (people leaving the survey) and changes in the design of
the surveys recommend the use of a shorter period. Examples of the latter are of particular concern
in Korea’s panel due to a change in its sample frame in 2009, and in the UK’s panel with the launch
of the British Household Panel (BHPS) successor in 2009, an study named Understanding Society15
with a much larger sample size and which is the one actually used in this section.
In addition to sampling issues, there exists accuracy issues with respect to the duration of the NEET
spell of individuals without work experience. For these young people the NEET spell is calculated
since the moment they left education, however, and contrary to what happens with respect the last
job held, is not common to ask about the exact date when the person quit school. As a result, the
NEET status starting date (or more accurately the date when this subgroup left school) is imputed
based on their schooling level. The imputation uses the specific educational system structure of these
three countries while assuming that no year was lost, i.e. a person with A-levels completed in the UK
is assumed to have completed his education at age 18. Still, and in spite of a careful imputation, the
data is not sufficiently accurate to distinguish, say, a NEET spell of 3 months from a NEET spell of 6
months.
The share of young NEETs without prior work experience and, thus, affected by the lack of accuracy
in their NEET spells in shown in Figure 7. In addition, it can be noticed that the group under analysis
is the one made of 19 to 29 years old, slightly older than, for instance, the ones eligible for the Youth
Guarantee. The reason has to do, once again, with sample size constraints. The high schooling rates
of these countries produce NEET rates for the 15-18 year-old group as low as 4.0, 1.1 and 9.2 per
cent for, respectively, Russia, the Republic of Korea and the United Kingdom. In contrast, the NEET
15 The UK Household Longitudinal Study (UKHLS), see https://www.understandingsociety.ac.uk/.

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Global NEET report NEET status duration

rates for those aged 19-29 are up to 18.7, 22.2 and 20.9 per cent for the just mentioned countries. To
sum up, there are not enough 15-18 NEET observations in the dataset to run any meaningful analysis
-which should not be interpreted as this group lacking policy interest.

Figure 7: NEET rate by existence of previous work experience, 19-29 years old

Source: UKHLS, RLMS, KLIPS and authors’ own calculations. Notes: The width of the bars marks the country and
age-specific NEET rate for those aged 15-24. In addition, the inside of the bar shows the share of NEETs with and
without previous work experience. Weighted average across the 2009-2016 period.

As a result of the different accuracy with which NEET spells are measure we show their distributions
and carry out the analysis of the section separately. With respect to the distribution of the time spent
as a NEET those with previous work experience tend to showcase much shorter spells, see Figure 8.
This is expected because even though there recent graduates who have never work and are looking for
a first opportunity in the labour market, most of the NEETs without previous work experience are in
for the long-run.

Figure 8: Distribution of the time spent as a NEET, 19-29 years old

(a) With previous work exp. (b) No work experience

Source: UKHLS, RLMS, KLIPS and authors’ own calculations. Notes: Country and age-group specific share of NEETs
by the duration of the NEET status. Duration measured in months. Weighted average for the 2009-2016 period.

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Global NEET report NEET status duration

For the remaining analysis short-term NEET spells (less than 1 year) are further broken down
into three subgroups, 0-3 months, 3-6 months and 6-12 months, so as to allow for non-linear effects
on future employability. The splits are such that each of the groups contains a sufficient number of
observations, with those having spent less than 3 months roughly accounting for half of the short-term
NEETs in Russia and around one third in the UK and the Rep. of Korea.

4.1 Short-term and long-term effects of NEET duration

The main objective of this section is to find the effect of an increase in the NEET spell on future
employability. In addition, we test for the existence of increasing penalties -scarring effects- during the
first 12 months of the NEET spell, a period thought of being critical for NEETs’ future outcomes. It
should be noted that the effects are estimated separately for those with previous work experience and
without it, although the results are made comparable to ease the interpretation.

Short-term effects. The first analysis assesses the effect of current NEET spells on having exited
the NEET status after one year. We carry this exercise out for each of the years available, i.e. the
effect of 2009 NEET spells on 2010 NEET status, 2010-2011 and so on until the 2015-2016 pair.
These effects are estimated for each country with the help of a binary choice model -Probit- where the
outcome variable is defined as remaining a NEET (1) or having exited the NEET status (0) one year
after the NEET spell is measured. In addition to the duration of the NEET spell, controls for sex,
marital status, age and educational attainment are also included in an attempt to isolate the effect of
the spell from the kind of opportunities available and the cultural background of the person.
The results -see Figure 9- show that longer NEET spells are correlated with higher chances of
remaining a NEET. The effects, though, do not increase linearly; for instance, in the UK there are
grounds to justify a Youth Guarantee-alike programme16 since it is the country for which the damage
brought by the first months of the NEET status is highest. In contrast with the UK, the negative
effect brought by the NEET spell seems to peak a bit later for Russia and the Rep. of Korea, when
young people have spent between 6 to 12 months as a NEET.
Even though at a first glance the UK results show -for those with previous work experience- a
similar effect of spells between 3 to 12 months, the interpretation depends on the time span analyzed.
In fact, the effects for the years prior to 2014 shows a linear increase in the probability while it is the
years after 2014 that have lowered the effect of spells between 6 to 12 months. This effects are similar
to the ones that would have been expected with the Youth Guarantee in an environment with a fix
number of openings for young people. If jobs were guaranteed for those who have been a NEET for at
least 4 months a queue would be created leveling the effects of NEET spells around the threshold.
With respect to young people without prior work experience, the results of Figure 9 stress the
importance of quickly finding a job, with the chances of remaining a NEET quickly increasing after
16 The UK did not implement the Youth Guarantee, see European Commission (2018), however, they have put in place
measures with similar scope and objectives.

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Global NEET report NEET status duration

the one year threshold. It should be noted that the reference group, for both subgroups, those with
and without work experience, are NEETs with previous work experience and spells between 0 to 3
months. As such, spending less than a year after finishing school does not seem to dramatically harm
recent graduates chances of finding a job. At last, the similarities between the effects showcased by
these three countries are worth mentioning, with only long-term, no previous work experience NEETs
having better prospects, perhaps due to the nature of its NEETs -see the Box ‘Understanding the
Korean Youth’.

Figure 9: Probability of remaining NEET after 1 year based on the current NEET status duration

Source: UKHLS, RLMS, KLIPS and authors’ own calculations. Notes: The figure shows the probability of being a
NEET after 1 year since the time of measuring the time spent as a NEET (in months). The probabilities are computed
separately for those with and without previous work experience. The estimates are obtained from Probit models run for
the years 2009-2015 i.e. we measure the probability of remaining a NEET in 2010 based on the duration held in 2009
and so on. The probabilities are averaged for each of the countries to eliminate noise due to the small samples. Age,
sex, educational attainment and marital status are included in the Probit model. The effect of having spent between 0
to 3 months as a NEET for someone with previous work experience is the default and is set to zero.

Long-term effects. It seems clear that longer NEET spells lower young people’s chances of exiting
the NEET status in the short-run, however, one of the often-read claims about remaining away from
work for a long period is related to the existence of a long-term damage. In this section we test
whether NEET spells in 2009 are related to been a NEET in 2016. The methodology is similar to the
one used in the estimation of short-term effects, with a binary choice model being estimated using a
-this time continuous- measure of time spent as a NEET. In addition, two specifications, one without
covariate and one with controls for sex, education, age and marital status -proxying for unobserved
heterogeneity in the ability as a potential worker and the cultural background- are estimated.
The increase in probability on remaining a NEET after 7 years due to having spent an extra year
as a NEET in 2009 is shown in Table 1. Even though the basic specification show some positive -and

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statistically significant- effects for the Rep. of Korea and for the UK, these effects vanish once we take
into account some basic socio-economic information. In particular, being a married women greatly
increases the chances of remaining a NEET while the opposite is true for men, with marriage being
positively linked to future employability. The effects are not as clear with respect to single young
people, where being a women increases the chances of remaining a NEET in the Rep. of Korea and in
the UK while being neutral in Russia.
The role of education is the expected one, with more years spent in school lowering significantly
the chances of remaining a NEET in the long-term in all three countries under study. Moreover, in
the UK we find that the older the person is when the NEET spell is measured the higher the chances
of being stuck as a NEET, something not found in Rusia or in the Rep. of Korea whose labour market
seem to be more forgiving.

Table 1: Marginal effect of an extra year as a NEET on short-term and long-term chances of remaining
NEET

Short-run Long-run
Country Basic Full Basic Full

Russia 6.3 4.7 -1.5 -2.0

Rep. of Korea 8.1 5.6 3.5 -0.7
UK 8.7 6.5 4.9 2.5

Source: UKHLS, RLMS, KLIPS and authors’ own calculations. Notes: The figure shows the marginal effects obtained
from estimating Probit models. Short-term specifications regress the NEET status duration on the coming year NEET
status. The long-term specifications regress the NEET status duration in 2009 on the NEET status of 2016. Both
specifications are run with and without other covariates. Covariates include gender, age, educational attainment and
marital status.

Overall, the effect of an extra year as a NEET is positive and significant in the short-run, with an
average increase in the chances of remaining a NEET estimated between 5 to 6 per cent depending
on the country. The long-term effects of NEET spells on future employability are negligible, though,
and can be disregarded. That is not to say NEET spells have no effect in the long-run, just that
employability does not seem to be affected; still, other outcomes like job security, wages and other
working conditions may be impacted if career choices carry effects forward.

4.2 Performance test: 7-fold vs. duration

The work performed in this chapter confirms NEET spells can be a useful tool. On the one hand, the
analysis of three panel datasets shows that, at least in the short-run, NEET spells affect employability.
In addition, Figure 4 shows how the NEET status duration seems to add a new dimension to the way
we classify NEETs. Despite the potential of NEET spells to become an active part of a policy-makers’

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toolkit, it is yet unclear whether NEET spells add actual value in comparison with the way Eurofound
classifies NEETs. In other words, NEET spells may not predict future NEET statuses better than
the 7-fold classification. Likewise, it may be the case that NEET spells can substitute the information
contained in the 7-fold NEET classification in terms of forecasting power.
Whether these two ways of classifying NEETs substitute or complement each other can be analyzed
by allowing both of them to explain future NEET statuses. We enhance the model used to estimate
the short-term impact with binary indicators for each of the 7-fold NEET statuses (with short-term
unemployment as the reference) to then estimate three specifications, one where only NEET spells are
present, one with only the 7-fold classification and a third with both of them together. The idea is to
compare the proportion of the variability (pseudo-R2) explained by each of the variables separately and
together, and then see which benefits more from the inclusion of the missing one. In any other respect
we keep averaging the pseudo-R2 coefficients obtained for each pair of years (2009-2010, 2010-2011
and so on) at the country level.

Figure 10: Explanatory power of the 7-fold classification and the NEET status duration

Source: UKHLS, RLMS, KLIPS and authors’ own calculations. Notes: The figure shows pseudo R-squared coefficients
for three specifications in each country. The first one regresses the current NEET status duration on next year’s NEET
status, the second uses the 7-fold classification (type of current NEET) and the last one combines both. Regressions are
run for 6 years (2009-2015); the R squared shown are the country average.

The results, see Figure 10, show that these two measures can best thought of as being complements
of each even though the degree of complementarity varies by country. For instance, in the Rep. of
Korea the 7-fold classification is more powerful than the NEET spells. This might due to the existence
of a large of young people studying and preparing for jobs or further studies on their own, thus,
clouding the meaning of the NEET spell. The opposite case is found in Russia, where NEET spells
explain better the variability of future NEET status due to the lack of long-term unemployed in the
sample and the little relevance of some of the other categories. At last, the UK stands in the middle,
with NEET spells and the 7-fold classification equally benefiting from the inclusion of each other.
In addition to the pseudo-R2’s, Appendix A also contains, separately for each country, the full

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Global NEET report NEET status duration

results obtained from estimating the Probit models. Since showing all the year-to-year estimates is
redundant in terms of additional knowledge we only present the ones referring to the most recent year
available, i.e. the effect of 2015 NEET spells and the 7 NEET categories on 2016 NEET status. Even
if only one year is shown, it is easy to verify the general results shown in Figure 10 based on the
significance of the different variables.

5 Conclusions
This chapter proposes an alternative way of classifying NEETs based on their NEET spell. The idea,
which is based on the relationship between the spells and a person’s labour market attachment, is
combined with the 7-fold classification (short-term and long-term unemployed, re-entrants, discouraged
job-seekers, family responsibilities, disabled and other NEETs) like the one proposed by Eurofound.
The use of NEET spells confirms that the 7-fold classification is a sensible one although it also
shows the presence of strong within category and across-country heterogeneity which clouds the picture
and make policy responses more difficult to tailor. In this sense, we propose to further sub-divide each
of the 7 categories between short-term (less than 1 year) and long-term NEETs.
When looking at NEET spells from a gender perspective we find dramatic differences between
men and women. First of all, NEET rates among young women tend to persist unchanged once the
transition to adulthood is finished. In addition, adult women have spent much more time as a NEET
than men, multiplying the negative effects related to foregone earnings and loss of skills.
At last, the analysis of three panel datasets from Russia, the Rep. of Korea and the United Kingdom
allow us to estimate the actual effect of NEET spells on short-term (1 year) and long-term (7 years)
employability. Our findings confirm the existence of negative short-term effects although they tend to
vanish overtime with other factors like the gender, marriage and education taking over.
In sum, this chapter shows that NEET spells can complement existing NEET classifications and
provide a more nuanced picture of the young NEETs’ situation. In spite of its usefulness, this chapter
also shows that data on NEET spells is scarce and time consuming to come by, which may put off
policy makers from using such measure in the future. In this sense, an effort to include recall modules
in labour force surveys may be due.

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Global NEET report NEET status duration

References
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unemployment: Evidence from matched employer-employee data. IZA Discussion Paper No. 10223,
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Bynner, J. & Parsons, S. (2002). Social exclusion and the transition from school to work: The case of
young people not in education, employment, or training (NEET). Journal of Vocational Behaviour,
60 (2), 289–309.

Cabinet Office (1999). Bridging the gap: new opportunities for 16-18 year olds not in education,
employment or training. Great Britain, Cabinet Office, Social Exclusion Unit.

Carcillo, S., Fernández, R., önigs, S., & Minea, A. (2015). NEET youth in the aftermath of the crisis:
Challenges and policies. OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers, No. 164.

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Gedikli (2014). Female labour supply in Turkey: Do traditional gender roles matter? Paper
prepare dfor the IARIW 33rd general conference, Rotterdam, the Netherlands, August 24-30, 2014.

Coles, B., Godfrey, C., Keung, A., Parrot, S., & Bradshaw, J. (2010). Estimating the life-time cost of
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Commission, E. (2014). The youth guarantee: Making it happen. European Union, 2014, ISBN
978-92-79-36765-6.

Department for Education (2011). Youth cohort study and longitudinal study of young people in
england: The activities and experiences of 19 year olds: England 2010. United Kingdom, Department
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Eurofound (2016). Exploring the diversity of NEETs. Publications Office of the European Union,
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European Commission (2018). Youth guarantee country by country: United Kingdom. Employment,
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Furlong, A. (2006). Not a very NEET solution: Representing problematic labour market transitions
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ILO (2012). Eurozone job crisis: Trends and policy responses. Research Department.

O’Higgins, N. (2012). This time it’s different? Youth labour markets during ‘The Great Recession’.
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Samoilenko, A. & Carter, K. (2015). Economic outcomes of youth not in education, employment or
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Weir, G. (2003). Economic inactivity in selected countries. Labour Market Division, Office for National
Statistics, UK.

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 Appendix A: Duration vs. 7-fold: Full results

Global NEET report

Table A.1: Marginal effects on 2016 NEET status, 2015 NEET status duration vs. 7-fold NEET classification

Russia Rep. of Korea UK

Variable Combined Duration 7-fold Combined Duration 7-fold Combined Duration 7-fold

NEET duration (0-3 months=0)

3-6 months 0.10 0.12 0.13 0.09 −0.05 −0.03
6-12 months 0.24∗∗∗ 0.26∗∗∗ 0.26∗ 0.25∗ 0.07 0.10
∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ ∗ ∗ ∗
12-24 months 0.25 0.29 0.27 0.27 0.18 0.24∗∗
24-48 months 0.25∗∗∗ 0.29∗∗∗ 0.21 0.27∗ 0.31∗∗∗ 0.38∗∗∗
+48 months 0.53∗∗∗ 0.57∗∗∗ 0.27∗ 0.35∗∗ 0.46∗∗∗ 0.55∗∗∗
23

Type of NEET (Short-term unemp.=0)

Long-term unemp. −0.13 −0.10 0.02 0.21∗∗
Re-entrants −0.23 −0.23∗
Discouraged 0.06 0.17∗∗ 0.49∗∗ 0.50∗∗∗ 0.16∗∗ 0.28∗∗∗
Family resp. 0.13∗ 0.25∗∗∗ 0.35∗∗∗ 0.40∗∗∗ 0.22∗∗ 0.40∗∗∗
Disabled 0.28∗ 0.48∗∗∗ 0.27∗∗ 0.48∗∗∗

NEET status duration

Other 0.08 0.21∗∗∗ 0.07 0.09 0.04 0.12∗

Source: UKHLS, RLMS, KLIPS and authors’ own calculations. Notes: The table shows Probit marginal effects for two predictors of future NEET status, current NEET status duration
and the Eurofound 7 NEET types. The dependent variable is NEET status (binary) in 2016 while the independent variables are measured in 2015. Significance: ∗∗∗ at 99%, ∗∗ at 95%,
∗ at 90%.